tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 17, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EST
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dani: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london with the stories that set your agenda. asia stocks follow wall street into the red as the selloff in chinese tech intensifies. the dollar snaps a two-day decline. u.k. chancellor jeremy hunt delivers his budget statement today, seeking to stabilize public finances amid economic headwinds. plus, u.s. republicans flipped the house by a narrow margin, giving the gop power to thwart president biden's agenda. breaking lines, it is siemens earnings, and it is a beat. they beat their pre-purchase allocation price at the low end of the range. the estimate had been 8.6. they are ceiling 2023 comparable
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sales, also beats across-the-board when it comes to fourth-quarter net income sales, orders and industrial profit. it is a brighter outlook amid a challenging backdrop in germany. saying they have a high backlog and continue to avoid any major disruptions from supply change, all of that said, there 2023 outlook is based on one, geopolitical tensions do not escalate further and challenges from supply chain constraints continue to ease. this is really a tale of two different industrial giants. they on the other hand are expecting just to break even in 2022 and 2023. they see their earnings dropping in a weakening economy. siemens powering ahead while to some group being affected by that weakening economy.
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yesterday was a day when we certainly got a vote of no confidence from the bond market. the yield curve reaching its most inverted level since the 1980's, at one point it dropped to around -67 basis points yesterday. another fresh low in the cycle. it is clear, at least some investors are expecting rate hikes will deliver a hard landing. waller yesterday saying get comfortable with half-point hikes and strong retail sales data as well. all of that means that yes, 10-year yields fell yesterday, higher today. let me show you the cross assets board. over the past two days not counting today, the 10-year yield dropped 16 basis points. the cycle the 10-year yield has fell below be effective fed funds rate. it is a double whammy of that plus more covid cases in china, the highest since april, all of
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that resulting in a renminbi weaker this morning and crude falling. $84 a barrel when it comes to nymex crude, concerns over china covid and demand. paring some reopening bets but at the moment not tons of action in this equity market. after dropping yesterday, theaters are higher by .1%. is day three at bloomberg's new economy forum and the global business and finance leaders have been discussing the risks at play in the world. >> we would really want to hear that the perpetrator country is the russian federation. >> china and the united states both stand to gain from cooperation, and lose from confrontation. >> it will be the beginning of a
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bridge building event. >> as we look at supply chains around the world, they were fit for 20 to 30 years ago. >> the central banks misread the signs, they misread the risk of persistent higher allocation. >> for 2023, we avoid recession. >> we will have new and improved data protocols such that only an entity of residents in the u.s. will have access to data. >> it is just too risky. they set out with a bunch of cowboys. dani: also at nef, is my coanchor manus in singapore right now, your tour is almost coming to an end. manus: they are inextricably
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linked. we caught up with anthony last night at a gala dinner, mike was there, a lot of people who have been around this conference. scaramucci, we were chatting outside and he has a tough battle on his hands to get his equity back. the crypto cowboys as bill winters calls them, not me, bill winters, nouriel roubini went after the crypto crowd last night on twitter. it was fairly visceral. a to this gathering, it is about reading the tea leaves of u.s.-china relations. perhaps a man who is a better encapsulate, it is kevin rudd. >> on the critical flashpoint question of taiwan, my end analysis is that neither side now once a war over taiwan. the reason for that is not
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because of a lack of nationalism. the reason is because both sides are concerned they might lose. militarily. manus: if your optionality is to lose, you don't want to be on that trade. i caught up with a advisor at the policy institute, deborah made a point that as far as china and xi signing on to the memorandum at the g20, if they hadn't had signed the memorandum against that war that would have been much more substantial. the other thing i just finished off with your dani, we have four talking about the contribution to rebuild ukraine, a $25 billion fund may be needed to rebuild ukraine.
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as we go to the close of singapore, the last word will go to ukraine, he joins john micklethwait in conversation in just under a couple hours of time. i think i am the warm-up act, i am talking cop for 15 minutes, we have had headlines on cop in the past 15 minutes about the language on the phasing out of coal. that will be a important conversation. at cop26, we will catch up with the president and put those questions in terms of the most recent language of the statement that has been released, and so far away from an inverted yield curve, i've never been happier. [laughter] dani: what do you mean, i can't quiz you about the most inverted yield curve since the 1980's? manus: 68.9 basis points. dani: there we go.
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manus: is it 68.9 or 69.9? dani: you are quizzing me, we are at 66 and a half. manus cranny in singapore, at bloomberg's new economy forum, and quizzing me too. now let's get to our reporters around the world. annabelle droulers is following a scoop that is driving china debt lower. the latest developments in the ever evolving crypto saga, while lizzy burden is on hand to preview jeremy hunt's autumn statement. china banks are asking banks to report on liquidity. after this huge move in china's bond market, what do we know? >> let's kick off with that move we have had in the debt market. you can see the one-year bond
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yield spiking the most since mid-2020. it tells us what we have seen with this pivot in china possibly away from its covid zero, improving tensions with the west, and also measures to support the property sector. all of this is seeing a big move into equities and out of fixed income products. and off that, we are seeing [no audio] dani: we might have just lost annabelle. annabelle droulers going over this group that china is looking at bond market liquidity. it is a very pressing issue for the market considering what happened in the u.k. for now, let's take a look at crypto. and the follow-up from the rapid collapse of ftx is spreading around the industry, it has snared the two billionaire winklevoss twins through a
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liquidity squeeze at their lending partner genesis. here to break down all the complications is suvashree, how do we look at the contagion right now? >> hi, it is indeed a contagion that is spreading fast and wild in the crypto world. as you mentioned, genesis has frozen withdrawals. it is a crypto brokerage and has 120 $5 million of its derivatives business which is bankrupt, that has had a spillover effect on gemini crypto exchange which is owned by winklevoss twins. gemini has its own product, and that has $700 million of exposure to genesis. that's where the linkage is. they had to hold withdrawals from that product called gemini
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earned. we have seen that withdrawals halted, you have seen $500 million of withdrawals already in hundred 24 hours, which is eight times more than inflows. that shows the contagion is failing and spilling faster in exchanges. we have yet to see the end of it. we are still in the middle of this heavy contagion effect. dani: certainly still in the middle of sam bankman-fried tw eets, saying the company got overconfident and careless in tweets late yesterday. joining us, bloomberg's suv ashree gosh. jeremy hunt delivers his autumn budget statement today, as he wrestles with inflation the highest in more than four decades.
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joining us is bloomberg u.k. correspondent lizzy burden. a really tough backdrop today for the fiscal statement. >> yes, but dani much of what is going to be in this autumn statement has already been briefed to the press, which is straight out of the rishi sunak playbook from when he was chancellor. chancellor jeremy hunt said today we can expect eye-wateringly difficult decisions when it comes to spending cuts and tax rises. he has got to tame inflation, grow the economy and balance the books which is meeting a very delicate tight rope between pleasing the markets, and pleasing the voters on the other. the reality is, in order to bring down inflation, he is going to have to weigh on demand. but the difference between this fiscal statement and the mini-budget in september is this time, the office of budget responsibility is going to be
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allowed to provide a forecast this afternoon. we will hear from its chiefs later today, we hope this afternoon. what i've been hearing from jeremy hunt's economic advisers is they are not too worried about the market reaction because of the newly respectful relationship between the treasury and the economic institutions. my question is, dani, are they taking liberties relying too heavily on the dividend? dani: that is an excellent point because this is a market that has proven to be very fragile. with that in mind, what could be the surprises that throw this market and i suppose any other observers off? >> there is always a rabbit out of the hat when it comes to a budget, even though jeremy hunt has said there would be. rishi sunak likes to under promise and over deliver, the questions that were remaining to
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find out are, how much of the fiscal squeeze is going to be backloaded until after 2024, when there is expected to be a general election? what will be the balance between tax rises and spending cuts? who is going to be hit with the tax rises and who is going to benefit from the spending? and also, how much is hunt going to overcompensate for the fiscal gap? the good surprises may be more spending on education, and we're expecting billions of pounds to be spent to bring down energy demand. dani: lizzy, one thing that is not surprising is how rainy and grim the weather is in front of westminster. lizzy burden braving the elements. she will be helping to lead our special coverage of the u.k.
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the past few weeks have made me more comfortable considering stepping down to a 50 basis point hike. dani: fed governor christopher waller they are on the path that will likely be 50 voices points -- basis points from here on out. joining me now is the state street head of emea research. thank you so much for joining. i want to take you to the yield curve, the first thing this morning was a quiz from manus on where the yield curve is. i have to quiz you, too. we were the most inverted yesterday since the 1980's, that's the chart we are looking at this moment. it does feel like some analysts are more hopeful for the economy. goldman sachs sees potential for a soft landing. is this peak pessimism in this bond market? altaf: with the way cpi print and ppi prints have come in recently, we could beat reaching the stage where we can start to talk about talking about the
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rate hike slowing a bit. i think the pivot is a few months away, but we could say 50 pips in december and slowing into next year. it feels like the curve. to flatten, and then markets will anticipate that and start adding to risk. dani: stocks in general are off their lows. altaf: it feels a bit fred hill at the moment. i don't think we will be going all in. we are underweight in equities right now, but we are looking for at least more confirmation from inflation. one print doesn't make a story, so we are looking for more confirmation from inflation although the supply side indicators are definitely coming down. it feels like the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place. dani: one to head to scratch her of this cycle has been the default cycle, i know you still
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prefer investment grade over high-yield. do you expect some form of a default cycle this time around? altaf: we see default rates picking up, distressed rates picking up. for us, it is a much better risk/reward to be in investment grade versus high-yield, where you are getting more but we don't think the risk justifies adding that extra yield. for us, being more defensive, still waiting for a few more signals. we would rather be in investment grade, but we don't foresee a massive default cycle. we think it will be relatively contained, but defaults will pick up. the protection we saw from covid and the spending from governments won't be there anymore. dani: november does feel like it has been marked by pivot stories. the fed being one, china being the other big one. two potential risks this market
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has been trading on, easing of tensions between the u.s. and china, and pivot on covid zero, how much do you buy into those narratives? is it too early to start trading them? altaf: on the pivot to covid zero, we think it is too early. we are looking to march, the end of the mpc in china for some decisive action on the end of covid zero, but it does feel like the beginning of the end. the chinese have a very 20-point chinese policy for easing covid. i think some ease and was always on the cards. at the same time, the market shouldn't pretend biden is any less hawkish on china than his predecessors. dani: can you trade on a tenant is less isolated? -- china that is less isolated? is that risk of them pulling away from the global economy now
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diminished? altaf: the last few months made china realize they are stronger within the global economy than outside. they ought to pivot to a more domestically focused service-led economy, but they realized they need to be a exporter. they will shift more to recognizing they have a role within the international community. dani: unfortunately, we are out of time. join us again. altaf kassam, emea head of investment strategy and research at state street global advisors. the gop retake the house by a slim margin, what does this all mean for the biden agenda? we explore next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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narrow house majority that gives them the power to halt president joe biden's agenda. the party gained the minimum 218 seats needed to control the chamber overnight. joining us to discuss is bloomberg's bruce einhorn. perhaps those viewers who are less familiar, what exactly does it mean now that republicans have a majority in the house? >> dani, you are right it is a slim majority. we're not going to know how slim it is probably for a few more weeks. they are still counting votes in california, there is an election in alaska we will not know about probably until next week. it is a slim majority. it will probably be around at size of the democrats' majority now. what will republicans be able to do with this? they will not be able to push any legislation because the democrats are in control of the senate and the white house.
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the significant thing here is, with the majority republicans will be in charge with all the various committees in the house, and will have soup enough power. they will be able to launch investigations. we will probably see a lot of investigations of various things, such as hunter biden. lots of republicans have talked about that. some republicans talked about how if they gained control of the house, they would launch impeachment proceeding against the the president. that is less likely now given how slim the majority is, but we will have to see. dani: when it comes to trump, and the potential for the white house to go to the gop, we have had some pretty significant gop donors back away from trump. what can you tell us about that? >> we do know that he didn't get the kind of first ponce probably
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that he was expecting. there are a lot of republicans who blame him for republicans not getting a much bigger victory in the midterm elections. they were expecting a red wave, it just didn't happen. a lot of people in the republican party are saying it is because voters were not interested in election denialism, the maga republican candidates who trump supported, a lot of them underperformed. dani: bruce, thank you very much, bloomberg's bruce einhorn there. some pretty clear rebukes from ken griffin. coming up, (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy.
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roland bush, after the earnings. roland: we will finish in q4, and of course, our fiscal year, we are -- 70% and 80% of revenue. we see a very strong demand. if you go forward, obviously we are guiding a little more bullish than last year. that has gone up to 6.9 percent. we believe this is, again, confirming there is a strong demand. it is all about visualization and sustainability. again, also about automation, automating manufacturing. also, energy efficiency, which is electrification where we have a very strong portfolio and very strong demand. this goes really, across the regions. we see a leavening out of the
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over intake as you go forward, maybe even something fine. you have to have in mind, this is an extremely high level. if not audit intake goes down a bit, it is because it is to shorten our delivery times to customers, which i think is very important. talking about this huge backlog, it is more than 100 billion. very good start. tom: more than 100 billion, where are you than in terms of converting that backlog into revenue? roland: the visibility is approximately, 40 billion of it. very high visibility. for roland: mobility, it is eve. higher share of cost. 90% of the audit backlog are from the mobility business is going to materialize in 2023.
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this is the nature of the business. this is very good, it is unusual, unusual high order backlog. this is the reason i am saying long delivery times, which obviously are going to make our customers happy. it is a good problem to have, honestly. converting that into top line growth into the current fiscal year, 2023. tom: you talked about the strength of the digital industries business as you convert customers from software sales in to cloud subscriptions, where are you in transition? when you expect that to complete? roland: we started in fiscal year 2022 with this transition. we are very happy with our transition. we wanted to grow by 10%, we grew by 15%. it is a very strong demand from the customers, and also, our strategy plays out. number one, converting customers, but addressing new
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customers, small to medium-size customers. this is a particular offering for them, we see a very high take from these a small and medium-size customers, new customers, too. as we always said, if we can go faster with this transition, we would. we accelerated it. in the second year. this is, the year where we have to take another strong momentum. we are believing this whole thing is going to continue and then also our bottom line is picking up. tom: how comfortable are you with the margins in the smart infrastructure division, and do you expect further expansion in those margins in the quarters ahead? roland: yes, i am particularly happy with the smart infrastructure. top line and bottom line. we promised, and we are
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continuously closing the gap, the profitability gap, we do that as promised. i am very happy with smart infrastructure in fiscal year 2022. and going forward, we signed in 2023, this goes back to our market day. we said we want to go above the 13%. we are going there, we are moving and improving our margins that continuously -- they are serving the market good, they have the cost under control. they are converting the top line growth into bottom line results. dani: a very optimistic siemens ceo there. let me show you what the rest of the market is doing this morning. 10 year yields are moving higher, that is after two days of declines. two days of buying treasuries that also saw the long and move lower while the front and moved higher.
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all of that led to the most inverted yield curve since the 1980's. it is a bond market that is ringing the recession alarm louder. china is the other focus this morning, we will talk to annabelle about that any moment. we are seeing covid cases at their highest since april. all that demand concern, not just playing out in the chinese currency, also oil as well just 84 and a half dollars a barrel. that is at $92 a barrel. it is a demand weakening story that is playing through their. at the moment, some consolidation in equities after a decline of 8/10 of 1%. let's take a dive on those asian markets. annabelle is in hong kong for us. i know you are also looking at the tax base this morning. annabelle: that's right, we had those earnings out here. a few bright spots here, still,
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we did see that quarterly revenue dropped. you can add to that as well, the company announcing plans to divest its stake. i really did spark that broader internet sector selloff today for chinese stocks. compounded by what happened with nettie's. nettie's. --net ease. that is the picture for that today. we will go a little bit broader, because we are seeing generally equities in the red down to what you are saying -- seeing that picture. retail sales better than expected. more fed rate hikes. also concerned -- confirmed by what we had from fed officials. those moves we are seeing in the longer duration. space reflecting what we had in treasuries in the previous session, and then of course, that inversion that we see the.
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dani: thank you so much. also on the other side of the break from me is my coanchor, manus, in singapore. manus, great to see you, day three of the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. there is so much to talk about their, whether it is geopolitics, the china story, the european economy, take your pick. it is a complicated environment for the world's leaders. manus: maybe the issue for markets is, how do you position for an accelerated change in china? one guess this morning saying there was a pivot immediately after that 20th congress, that pivot on policy will accelerate and they want to actively be exposed to china. i think the narrative here is to pick nuances of the u.s. and china relationship.
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the red lines are in taiwan, the former prime minister of australia saying that neither of them want to go to war. essentially, they are both concerned about losing. therein lies the point. how to avoid a war and how to de-escalate from the current war will be the narrative in just under 30 -- two hours. zelenskyy will appear here as one of the closing conversation at the plenary session. also, a warning shot from the military officials. they say china is a formidable competitor. it is within the same system, and china may want to dominate that system. let's get to one of the big things this year, it has been around the energy crisis in europe. how we are grappling with that in transition. it has been backed up by war. here is what some of the attendees had positive things to say. let's listen in.
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>> short-term, we have to manage this crisis very carefully. i am a born optimist, so i will look on the bright side of things. we look at the fact that we are just launching our first lng terminal, which was originally projected to only open after two years. it has been a little over a year since we started it. we are very happy with the progress. it will take time to rewire the energy infrastructure. germany is dependent on stable, not just cheap energy. we will see significant fallout in the restructuring of the industry. on the other scion -- on the other hand, a few years ago these swiss franc floated against the euro and traded at almost 20%. switzerland has the industrialized -- we will do well. >> you see companies moving in? >> it is not about that.
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it scores innovation. we might not be able to produce ammonia, but we have amazing companies both small, medium, and large, that will use the opportunity of the energy transition to reinvent the business model and do so much. manus: speaking with the team at the bloomberg new economy forum. i am signing off, another plane awaits me. i know you have a good conversation coming up with mark, i'm curious whether to know he is agreeing with pemco? i am never that far from a bond trade. dani: manus, it is who you are. i would be alarmed if you weren't. enjoy the rest of your travels. see you when i am back after next week. manus signing off. as he mention, we will be joined by mark, founding partner at
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dani: one of the big stories this week has been the return of president xi jinping to the world stage at the g20 summit in bali. a lot to dig through. we are joined by mark mobius, founding partner at mobius capital, an expert on china and the em space. thanks so much for joining us. we are coming off the back of a g20, notable with a meeting between biden and xi jinping that was noted for a potential
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easing of tensions. does it go anywhere to diffuse tensions between the world's two biggest economies? mark: not really. i am really disappointed by the meetings, they really didn't attack the key issues. that is the threat by china to take taiwan by force, and what is happening in europe and ukraine. these are two key issues that seem to be ignored or skirted around in the meetings. so, i think it is a real problem for investors like ourselves, we consider china being such a big market, playing such an important role in the global economies. if we invest there, is there risk that we have the same thing that we had with russia when we were able to get money out of russia? this is something that we have to address as investors very carefully. dani: do you write off china signing off on the communiqué
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that said most members strongly condemned the war in ukraine, and the fact that xi jinping was there talking to various world partners? is that not a person who wants to avoid diplomatic isolation? mark: he has no choice. he has got to make sure that china is engaged in trade around the world. you look at the chinese economy, it is dependent upon trade, particularly with the u.s. and europe. he really has no choice but to engage with these leaders and say nice words. at the end of the day, we must remember that he has threatened to take taiwan by force. that would be -- that would mean war with the united states. dani: how real is that risk, do you think? mark: i think it is very real. he clearly stated it is a goal of his. it may not happen overnight, but i think it is something hanging over our heads. the solution would be for xi
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jinping to come out and say look, we would like to have combination with taiwan, but we would never use force. it would be up to the taiwanese people. that would be a great statement to make and it will relax the investors around the world. dani: well, looking at the very complicated geopolitics, the risks you see of escalation, do you want to touch anything? are you willing to test just to touch any investment in china? mark: we are investing in a company in hong kong. so that come up to some degree, a risk control in the sense that we limited the amount that we have in china. so, we are not ignoring it completely. but, to -- you must remember the emerging markets indices at 20
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or 30% in china, we certainly never want to go to that high degree. i think this is something that we have to watch carefully, and put the money in to taiwan. i think that is where the opportunities are. we think there is a better chance there, -- dani: i was just about to go there, we had warren buffett putting a lot of money into it, is not the trade you are interested in? mark: we have been interested for the last three or four years in companies in taiwan that are doing the software, the design for semiconductors, that tsmc manufacturers. they depend on tsmc for the manufacturing, but they do the software. the good news for these companies, they can move anywhere in the world. if something happens in taiwan, they could move to the united states or europe, safe havens,
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and people can move as well. that is the way we sort of control the possible risk of an attack on taiwan. dani: the other chinese thread here, why we have seen a big rally in these chinese equities has been the hope of a reopening story, the reduction of covid zero policies. is that a narrative you think has legs? mark: it definitely does. china has to open up because they can't continue these lockdown policies if they want to have growth areas you must remember, xi jinping needs to have growth in the economy in order to make people happy at the end of the day. the economy needs to have growth in order to get the support of the general population. yes, they would be opening up the economy, and it will recover to some degree.
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they are never going to reach the 10% growth they had 10 years ago, they will be going in maybe 3%. not the kind of growth that india is experiencing, but they will definitely recover. in the market will recover, as well. dani: in the past, you said you use crypto as a signal, or it is a useful signal for this overall market environment. what signal do you take of ftx? and the ripple effects? mark: it is a terrible situation for millions of people around the world. i don't think that central banks and officials around the world really recognize the degree to which people are involved in crypto. just before this call, i got a call from a friend who had money in one of the crypto exchange is worried they were guaranteeing him 5% he decided to take money out, and they said sorry, we are closed.
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you cannot redeem your money. this is the kind of thing that is happening globally, and it is not good, not good for markets. we are in a recession. millions of people are in the crypto space, it is more of a recession. losing their savings. dani: can trust come back to this space? or are we permanently scarred when it comes to crypto investments? someone like your friend you are talking to, these scars of this, what will this do to investor sentiment, to the viability of crypto going forward? especially for institutional investors? mark: when people asked me about crypto, i say i don't like to talk about religion in public. people say it is a religion, it is a belief. it is a whole generation of people below 30 years of age who have grown up with the internet and believed in the internet.
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that is fine, there is faith in the crypto, there will soon be many people that leave crypto. it has really taken a hard knock. i think there is a future for crypto for the transfer of money illicitly. but, i say illicitly, i don't mean something evil. money transfers out of dictation might be a good thing for people trying to escape. i think there is a role for crypto and those kinds of transfers. dani: i know you have talked about that specifically in the context of russia. likely, i want to get your thoughts. some of this inflation trade has been unwinding, the dollar coming off its high, stocks off its lows. do you want to follow that? the pivot of high inflation? mark: i think we will still have growth with high inflation,
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seven, 8% going forward. the fed and central banks i think will be very cautious about raising interest rates anymore, because of the recession probability. we are in a recession, but it could get worse. i think the central banks will be very careful. if you look at things like food and fuel, the increases have been tremendous. they are really hitting the lower income people very, very badly. this is a real problem. dani: you said in the past that we need to hike rates above inflation, do you still think that should be the case? mark: yes, i think the central banks need to raise interest rates above the rate of the cpi. but, if the cpi goes down, which it seems to be heading, then they will not be able -- not want to raise rates to that degree. dani: mark, thank you so much.
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>> i was not surprised about the price of crypto's. the prized about how rapid this has happened. dani: ecb vice president they are speaking about the crypto turmoil. we are talking to mark mobius about it as well. he said sometimes that crypto is more of a religion then an investment. is that what more folks are thinking, considering we have seen that one, the rest of the crypto's days, so far off of it
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eyes? the latest, you have some of this contagion spreading to geminis, spreading to winklevoss twins, they have halted withdraws. at the same time, we have had some treats -- tweets come in from a san bankman-fried. he continues to tweet through this. also saying that he was overconfident or less. the drama continues. we continue to monitor the contagion risks. coming up next, bloomberg markets europe. this is bloomberg. ♪
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well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about.
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