>> this is bloomberg daybreak: europe, i'm tom mackenzie in london with manus cranny in dubai. these are the stories that set your agenda. manus: the fed's mary daly warns about the lag effects of rate hikes. loretta mester says 75 basis points of rate hikes is not needed next month. ftx follow-up, genesis warns of bankruptcy as it struggles to raise cash. u.s. prosecutors began probing sam bankman-fried's empire months before its collapse. keeping the lid on. oil whipsaw's as saudi arabia denies a report that saudi arabia is weighing a production increase at the december meeting. tom, good morning. that oil market was vicious, down 6% and then the big denial. good morning. tom: that was remarkable, the

moves on the back of that speculation that an increase was in the offing. very strong denial from saudi arabia. we continue to weigh up commentary from fed officials event. there is no backing down from the higher terminal rate, but just how high come december and the months that follow is in question. slightly more dovish in terms of the size of heights, manus. manus: i like loretta mester's use of language, she says the fed is in a new cadence. what does that mean in terms of the interval between the next set of heights? you've got bostic, mr. and mary daly all cooing, a cacophony of doves, triple c. tom: j.p. morgan's call and of which -- kalanovich, the

ultimate bowl, saying you will not see a uptick in assets until you have a pause. in china, you are looking at about a fifth of that economy facing kobe controls now in china now. the msci asia pacific up .3%, futures stateside broadly balanced. not a lot of movement, you saw modest losses yesterday in the u.s. and europe. futures is sounding dovish, philip lane suggesting a tick d own to 50 basis points is warranted for the ecb. euro stocks futures gaining a 10th of a percent. manus: quick snapshot. oil has rebounded from 6% tro uncing yesterday. the dollar has halted a

three-day rally as we see this new cadence likely from the fed. the 2-year yield dropping slightly, and brent pausing for breath, up .2% this morning. as rbc says, opec is likely to err on the side of caution as we go to vienna. . bitcoin scrambling at $15,700 . tom: elon musk laying off sales workers, twitter already diminished by sales cuts and resignation. china is increasing covid zero curves, adding to a litany of investor worries over tesla. joining us with more is katrina nicholas in singapore, what are the other factors weighing on

tesla? you've got the china effect, and concern about just how much attention elon musk is able to pay to tesla? >> exactly, china is tesla's most important market after the u.s. it recently updated its factory in shanghai to double capacity, about a million cars a year. last month it shifted 72,000 vehicles from that plant, a lot of supply going into the market at a time when consumer sentiment may not be as strong as it was and amid recession worries. that's one concern, another is this recall of 3000 cars due to faulty taillights in the u.s. over the weekend. fortunately, that was rectified via an over the air software update but not helping the stock in any way. it is down 52% this year, that puts it at levels not seen since

november 2020. manus: the debate is to what extent do you have to discount elon musk's focus on twitter, and spacex, it is in the securities disclosure that he has other interests and that may distract him. is the elon discount coming to bite? >> that could be what you are seeing here. musk has certainly been preoccupied by her newly acquired social media platform, tweeting at all hours, leaving some to speculate that strategy may have followed by the wayside. jeffrey cohan wrote that his hedge fund is shifting to a negative bias on tesla, given that there has been this loss of focus. tesla did lose its trillion dollar valuation status in late april. its shares only need to follow

another 6% before it dips below the $500 billion mark. manus: we will keep an eye on it today, it has taken a little wind out of elon's wealth, losing $100 billion this year. stocks in asia modestly higher in the afternoon session. annabelle, i suppose it comes down to no further bad news on lockdowns is what the market is desperately clinging onto? >> that seems to be the story, it's difficult to we've a narrative into the session today because we have been pretty range bound. the nikkei is advancing in the session. the weekend had been supporting that in the day's trading. the csi 300 shifting to flat, it was earlier higher.

there are additional covid restrictions, cases yesterday were more than 20,000, but also china giving more support to its property sector. it is telling regulators to stabilize banking loans to developers. and also to construction firms. that was something that had been lifting this sector by as much as two point 5%. we are also keeping an eye on how companies are responding to the signature policies of xi jinping. jd.com is one of them, basically saying it is cutting management salaries. the other story in asia is what's happening in malaysia, we did have that election over the weekend which produced a hung parliament. lawmakers have a deadline of 6:00 a.m. london time to tell the king who will be the next prime minister. we understand that pn is saying

it will be part of the opposition that would lead bn to be the majority coalition there. tom: we will be speaking to frederick neumann of hsbc about the malaysian economy later in the show. let's get to the story that is frankly manus's favorite story, oil steadying after reports of possible opec output increases, and as traders continue to weigh the demand picture in china which is looking fragile. our energy reporter has move, walk us through the last 24 hours in oil markets. >> we have had the journal report that saudi arabia was going to add oil back to the market potentially with opec+ increasing supply in their next decision by 500,000 barrels a day. they had cut bite millions of barrels before, so that would be a surprise.

oil prices plummeted, you saw wti fall, then they surprise the market again and said that is not true. then prices popped back up and they ended the session little changed. now traders don't know how to weigh it, chinese demand is weak, they continue to have lockdowns across the country with covid cases rising. that has everyone worried that the world's biggest crude importer what have much demand the next few months. at the same time, the eu is going to execute a russian price cap to stop moscow from getting money over the war in ukraine. that's going to be implemented in december. russia warned they were going to reduce output if customers put a price cap, they will not sell to those countries. they can also potentially tighten the market. you have two tight rope elements

to be walking between bearish and bullish. saudi arabia with opec-plus in december has to navigate that difficult to situation. manus: we will talk more on the lng contract signed in qatar, and the east. stephen stapczynski with the latest on volatility in the oil market. we have got to talk about ftx. the contagion effect, we were able to put a little bit of quantum around this. genesis, another one of these exchanges, has warned we will be bankrupt if we don't raise funds. part of it is because part of our capital is trapped inside ftx, $175 million is locked inside an ftx account. they say, we have no plans to file for bankruptcy imminently, but they are trying to raise funds. tom: genesis is a brokerage with

a lending unit, that's where the concern is. they are linked to gemini as well, owned by the winklevoss twins, another linkage on of sprawling web. we mentioned around the doj, regulators in the u.s. in new york who had in the months previous to this fallout at ftx started probing the business. that is interesting, we are waiting for new details. a latest line on the reporting around ftx, apparently they have a cash balance of $1.2 billion. but sam bankman-fried said there is an $8 billion hole, as we unpick this web and related start to probe. manus: the combined cash value is 1.2 4 billion dollars, and research firms had cash values

of $401 million. the other important line is you have senators in the u.s., fidelity must reconsider bitcoin exposure in people's 401(k)'s, another salvo. but cap never far, you caught up -- cathy wood, you caught up with her, she is buying up coinbase, they have increased their position more than 19%. that certainly jumping on the opportunity, isn't it, tom? tom: this left a lot of people scratching their heads, she reiterated the call that ultimately bitcoin can get to a million dollars per coin. given all of this, that is a remarkable prepositioned for bitcoin. you are seeing a little bit of a bid, currently up .7%. manus: bit of a journey them,

tom. coming up, fed officials maintained their stance in the fight against inflation, but kalanovich sees more downside risks until the fed stopped liking. ♪ -- stops hiking. ♪

>> as we work to bring policy to a sufficiently restrictive stance, which in simple terms means the level required to bring inflation down and res tore price stability, we will need to be mindful. adjusting to little will leave inflation to high, and adjusting too much could lead to an unnecessarily painful downturn. manus: mary daly looking for goldilocks in terms of rates,

the san francisco fed president with her view speaking about the potential impact of fed policy. her cleveland counterpart loretta mester said she is open to slowing the pace of rate hikes. meanwhile, j.p. morgan's kalanovich says the fed will need to start reducing risk for there to be a sustained rally in assets but that's not likely anytime soon. let's take that thought to stephanie zwick, senior portfolio manager at fisch asset management. i'm drawn to mester's reference on the cadence of rate hikes we will have come up to 50 in december, and thereafter what would you project? stephanie: i think the path will become much more flexible and predictable. after the cpi which surprised to be downside, i expect some are

coming at the beginning of december. this will leave more leeway for the fed to act. the fed will actually pause in january, they will probably hike in december but after that they will rather digest of cooling inflation figures and waited longer. we will have higher rates for longer, but the positive view is this will be much more digestible for equity valuations because it is at the same time becoming more predictable and less data dependent. tom: that's a big call that they will pause after december. it sounds like you pushback on kalanovich state streets -- kalanovich's call that you need to see a cut before you see a really in assets. stephanie: the fed will still be committed to taming inflation, but they will probably take more time. they will raise rates over a

longer period, and not in a hurry. manus: you have decided to join the blackrock chorus in terms of the credit bus, where am i sufficiently compensated to get on board the credit bus? stephanie: fixed income investors are not well compensated by taking on additional investment tricks. corporate's have a earnings multiple of 5%, above the earnings of the s&p. that is a vulnerability for equities. on top, you don't get a pickup towards emerging markets. if we look at investment-grade emerging market spreads, usually they were trading with a pickup to investment-grade corporates, but right now this pickup really has disappeared. right now, investors should stay focused on u.s. and euro

investment-grade. tom: if you were to push out into high-yield, where would you be looking within this environment? stephanie: energy really offers rising stars. as we have recessionary pressures, we favor defensive sectors with stable cash flows, but also health care companies. we are underweight cyclicals. energy had historically been a very cyclical, high beta sector. but today, energy is really offering stable cash flows, cash rich companies, strong fundamentals. so we are really keen on adding opportunities to our portfolios. currently, oil price is absolutely elevated but still if oil prices fall let's say back

to $60 u.s. per barrel, we still think companies can continue to operate profitably in this environment. manus: a lot would have to go wrong in the world to get us to 60 bucks, i'd be very worried if oil was at $60. i'd say we were heading towards a pretty hard landing, is that what it takes to get oil to $60? stephanie: i agree here. really even if we have a hard landing, then companies will still continue to operate profitably in this space. tom: just very briefly, there's been a lot of focus on what's happening with china, its inability to extract itself with covid zero. when the reopening happens, it may not have until the second quarter of next year, how do you position? stephanie: china we are not full on the china reopening trade.

we are still cautious, a bit underweight in the chinese space, however if we see a change we would start to add on the consumer side where we think there is potential for growth and reopening to happen. tom: sounds like we're not there yet, but energy is the call from stephanie zwick, senior portfolio manager at fisch asset management. thank you indeed for those insights. back to business. bob iger yesterday taking the first steps to reshape disney. we've got more details on how he is changing the management structure and his plans as he returns to ceo. we will bring you those details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg

daybreak: europe". i'm tom mackenzie in london with manus cranny in dubai. bob iger going back to business after making his surprise return as ceo of disney. taking the first steps to reshape the media giant. joining us is rachel chang, who leads our media team in asia, order the steps playing put in place -- what are the steps being put in place by bob? >> that's right. he has moved very quickly. one of the thirst things he did was to remove a close bob chapek ally. we the old guard. we know the streaming platform is a massive concern, losses of 1.5 leave them dollars -- billion dollars. getting back to profitability. he promised that he would

restore control to creative heads. internally people were unhappy with bob chapek, that centralization of power away from creative heads. manus: i'm always fascinated by people's paychecks. what is he picking up for two years' work? >> he will get $27 million a year. bloomberg has calculated bob chapek will get his package, which is about $23 million paid bob iger made clear the contract will only be for two years. his goal is to find a successor by the end of these two years. they are sending a message that we are trying to find a new plan in terms of finding a successor for iger. the question is whether disney can move to that new chapter without a leader that is iger.

tom: we saw the reaction to the stock yesterday, but can he rebuild relations with activist investors who have been lobbying for change at the top? >> he is a steady pair of hands, very well known in the industry. he is loved in hollywood, those relationships disney wants to repair right now. but there is a question if those activists will be happy if bob iger continues in his role too long. some of them oppose the fact that you are going back to somebody old to get the company through these challenges. that is going to be that one challenge that he has. address concerns that disney does not have a plan b on him. manus: sometimes you have to steady the ship in the first instance.

rachel chang with the latest on bob iger and what he will do. in the stories we have written up, there are two major institutional investors which are activists, third point and you have got nelson peltz pushing for change. both businesses on the way out. i wonder what he might sell to crystallize some value on the way out. loeb is pushing for the spin off of espn. tom: summit nodding at hul -- some nodding at hulu as well. interesting to see if we unwind at assets in this environment. folks, it looks like we're gonna have to land this big old bird earlier than expected because it's the xfinity black friday sale. get the fastest mobile service with xfinity mobile. yeah, we'll be cruising in to get the best price for 2 lines of unlimited for just $30 each per month. oh my! plus, for a limited time,

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manus: it's bloomberg daybreak: europe. manus cranny in dubai. tom mackenzie in london hq. tom: the fed's mary daly warns about the lag effects of rate hikes. 75 basis points is not needed. stocks mostly higher. crypto form genesis warns a bankruptcy as it struggles to raise cash. prosecutors probe sam bankman-fried. keeping the lid on. oil web saws. -- whipsaw. s. manus: let's pick it up right on that point. the whipsaw you referred to, down by 6% and an immediate rally. straight out of the traps came the prince with a from denial,

we are not in the process of hiking. the market turned around. in the statement from the saudis, this is what you call buying optionality. if there is a need to take further measures by reducing production to balance supply and demand, we are always ready to do that. this is about the preparedness to do more. what a global brouhaha we had last time we were in vienna. that was politically awful between the u.s. and saudi. the prince is keeping his options and his powder dry, but they are prepared to pull the trigger again to reduce production. tom: that is fascinating. you would have to ask to your point around the geopolitical brouhaha, what that is if they do go ahead. a nod to a further cut. what that does to further

relations for the two powers? in terms of china as well, officials will be watching what happens with covid zero. state street does not think china will open until the second quarter of next year. we are watching covid cases continue to surge there. across the asian benchmark, very modest gains. a lack of direction for the markets. futures range bound for s&p and nasdaq futures. european stocks also ending in the red. we did hear from philip lane, suggesting a move down in the pace of rates may be in the offing, as well. let's switch focus over toward asia, particularly the politics of malaysia, which have been thrown into disarray after the weekend's election.

it resulted in a hung parliament. the malaysia kingmaker coalition will not join rivals racing to form a government and has opted to be part of the opposition. joining us to discuss this and markets in the region is hsbc's chief asia economist. before we get to the malaysia story and the specifics around the politics, i want to get your view on the u.s. dollar and its implications for that part of the world. are the risks of strong greenback being put to one side? >> for the time being yes. he saw some currencies rally a little bit in the last couple weeks or so one of the expectations that the fed is getting closer to a halt, a pause early next year. that provides relief for regional central banks. look at the thai bhat or the korean won, all starting on a

firmer footing. that is driven by expectations around the fed and everybody is watching the minutes coming out this week. manus: what is it going to mean for fx resort cash reserves? -- fx reserves? frederic: we have seen central banks not being shy to spend some of the reserves they accumulated over the last couple of years. not so much to prevent depreciation, but ensuring an orderly depreciation, providing that dollars into the markets have an orderly unwind. that operation has been fairly successful. broadly speaking, most central banks in the region still have ample ammunition here, but it is all about ensuring financial stability, not preventing fx depreciation at all cost. tom: very different set of circumstances compared to the asian financial crisis.

if we go to the specifics of malaysia, a hung parliament, you have tensions between these major parties, questions about investor sentiment, but this is an economy that has benefited in terms of the boom around energy and electronics. does that continue to hold up despite the political risks or a sentiment changing around exposure? frederic: no, we are actually in a sweet spot in malaysia for the economy, so markets can potentially shake off some of the political uncertainties until we know what the outcome of the election is. this is an economy that continues to interact with tremendous amounts of foreign intervention. energy prices have come off a little bit, but it is in next -- net exporter of commodities in general benefiting malaysia. the political issues are not going to derail economic growth

for the coming year. some issues around tax policy reducing subsidies, fiscal policy, that is medium-term stuff. going into 2023, we should see fairly robust growth coming out of malaysia all things considered. manus: what impact if at all will the reopening and china have? globally, it can have a significant impact, but within that geographic and economic impact hinterland -- sorry -- frederic: there are two issues here. we are seeing a rapid deceleration in trade. bc new export orders coming off rapidly. the electronic sector is struggling. having reopening and china would help to put a floor under the regional trade cycles. china is a larger export market than the u.s. for most asian economies. that would help offset the

weakness coming out of the u.s. on the other hand, it could actually land support to commodity prices. as we get into the middle of next year, china comes back, commodity prices might benefit and that could help to support inflation and that would make it hard for central banks to cut rate. it is a double-edged sword, but it would be a stabilizing factor for the region overall. tom: that is really interesting. interesting to think china has done something of a favor to central banks by holding back and not reopening and leading to a further surge in terms of energy costs that are reopening would lead to. in terms of korea, i know this is a story our asia team was focused on, but we overlooked it to some extent, there was a blowout in yields on the back of a concern around entertainment parks. has the systemic risk been contained?

frederic: it is probably contained, but we did see widening bond spreads, shorter money markets, but it may impact of the central bank thinks about further tightening. they are meeting this weekend that will impact how they are going to think about further tightening. we think probably one more hike and then they are done, because we are seeing the effects of monetary type -- tightening on corporations and households. that is something a central bank needs to take into account when setting policy. manus: energy is a huge debate around the world, whether it is russian gas, lng, or dependence on fossil fuels. if opec cut, we could road test $100 again. if there is a real slowdown in

the world, it is down to $60. talk me through the energy component and the oil risk to malaysia. frederic: malaysia is an exporter and producer of oil, but it is also a significant producer of gas. that is what drives the balance of payments going forward. because of the issues in europe, they are spilling over into asia as well. to the extent we see elevated gas prices, that remains a positive for malaysia, even if we see oil drifting a little lower. i would make that distinction. the other thing to consider is going back to china. china has taken a lot of oil demand off the table. to the extent they are coming back next year, that should help to put a floor under energy, oil demand across asia and stabilize even revenues for a place like

malaysia, that is still gaining fiscal revenues from oil and gas prices. manus: let's see if we can retest the $99, $100 level in oil as we go to vienna. good to have you with us this morning. let's get the very latest on the curb no crisis -- crypto crisis. genesis is struggling to raise cash. it warns it may need to file for bankruptcy. the concerns are that genesis and other crypto outfits are pretty much unnerving the investor community on the back of sam bankman-fried's ftx empire imploding. the selloff in bitcoin is paused for the day. it remains at its lowest level since 2020. paul dobson is here. we begin to understand the quantifying of money trapped

inside ftx. is this step one of understanding contagion from ftx? paul: yes, i think that is definitely one of those channels. i think that it has upwards of 175 million tied up in ftx, which is inaccessible right now, which makes it harder for it to get its own liquidity, so customer withdrawals have been halted. that starts that chain of events going. it is very much a question of trust across the industry right now. if you can't trust your brokerage or your trading partners or your platform, it makes it very hard to want to do business in that space. that is why we see liquidity starting to fall out of the market and we are starting to feel that element of trust or mistrust continuing to build. tom: it was fascinating to read the story from bloomberg around

bain capital and the due diligence they did on behalf of tiger global. they got that one wrong. if they can't get it right, who can? where else in the crypto space is the follow being felt? paul: it is just this big intertwined web, as our story puts it. all across the crypto industry, there are cross holdings, counterparty risk, and so the contagion can spread rapidly. we had an opinion piece yesterday by bill dudley, one of the fed governors, talking about how it reminds them of 2008 because of the trust and even if there is a calm in the storm, more blowups can happen. the difference with the banking sector is they have a central bank that can stand behind them where the crypto sector by design does not have that backup. so if it all does start to unravel and go wrong, there is

not the same kind of support mechanisms in place to rescue people and to save people's money. the other thing that is important to remember and recognize, these are real sums of money that real people are losing and there is a lot of pain and upset and discontent out there as well. tom: indeed. echoes of 2008. what a warning. paul, thank you very much indeed. manus: coming up, shall plans to evaluate its investment in the u.k. as the government expands the windfall tax. the very latest from the cbi conference. on bloomberg. ♪

>> windfall tax is in exceptional circumstances and this is an exceptional circumstance makes sense, but they need to be designed in a manner that really has an off switch as well as an on switch. i think specific to the energy profits hitting ourselves, i would say part of the challenge we have at the moment is it doesn't currently have the off switch. tom: the shell ceo in the u.k. that is responding to the british government's expanded windfall tax around -- round announced last week/

shall plans to evaluate u.k. investments. manus: the title of the press release is preparing the business for their future. enel repositioning the business and its geographies for sustainable electrification. we're going to sell assets to cut our debts by 21 billion euros. guidance for net adjusted income next year, 6.1 to 6.3. quite above the market estimate of 5.8. re-strategizing to focus on electrification and securing growth. that is the top line from enel. tom: this is big. 21 billion euros. we know borrowing costs have increased. we know energy companies will have to spend a lot within this

transition to pivot more quickly and significantly to renewables. we will watch the story and give you more details as and when they come through. 21 billion euros of assets is what they are looking to sell. we go from enel, and we heard from the u.k. head of shell, and that takes us to the politics because of the windfall tax on energy. the u.k. prime minister addressed a meeting of the u.k.'s biggest employers, doubling down on his brexiteer credentials. how were the prime minister's comments received given the speculation that maybe they were reconsidering their relationship with brussels? lizzy: let's remember wire she sunak was rebutting the idea of a swiss style deal. switzerland accepts the free movement of labor from the eu. it accepts the market

regulations and pays annually into the budget. these are all redlines for the brexit wing of the conservative party on which rishi sunak is relying to hold his government together. there are conservative mp's who are suspicious that the chancellor is a closet remainer, because he voted to remain in the 2016 referendum and only last week he told the bbc that unfettered trade with our neighbors is good for growth in the u.k. so there are suspicions there is a split between numbers 10 and 11 downing street, hence the tough talk from rishi sunak. you asked the business response. i spoke to the cbi director general and he said that the kind of exit business wants is a boris style brexit. they want what has already been agreed to be implemented. closer ties with the eu would not be a silver bullet to fix the u.k.'s labor market issues

and that is perhaps not what you would expect from the boss of britain's biggest labor group. we will be speaking to the president of the cbi later today. manus: yes, certainly an interesting 16 years on from brexit and still a deep sense of a lack of clarity. great work at the cbi. the conference continues in birmingham. coming up, tom and i will dig into the saudi arabia stance as opec-plus has planned to cap oil output and further cuts, but not inconceivable. this statement from saudi arabia on bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's daybreak europe with me manus cranny and tom mackenzie. we have conflicting reports of a possible output increase and traders continue to weigh the demand picture from china. a production increase was firmly rebutted by his royal highness. stephen really dug into the statement. they rebut that they are thinking about adding barrels. if there is a need to take further measures by reducing production, we are always ready to intervene. i would say that is about giving himself optionality. what do you make of the statement? stephen: i think the statement,

the market reacted appropriately. we saw the oil prices jump back up after they rebutted the wall street journal report that they were considering a 500,000 barrels a day increase in their meeting in december. they said they are sticking by their 2 million barrels a day cut. the statement does give them a little bit of wiggle room. that has been the position of opec-plus the whole time. they have given themselves enough rope just in case they do have to add barrels to the market, takeaway barrels to the market. they are never really leaving the door closed on anything. you see them make some pretty surprising decisions over the last few weeks and months this whole year. i think the real focus, as you mentioned, is what is happening with chinese demand, with their covid zero policy, and what will happen with the eu price cap on russian supply of oil, which

could cut supply into the market of moscow decides they don't want to sell capital oil. -- captain oil -- capped oil. tom: on the china story, state street saying it will not reopen till the second quarter of next year. does that put a further cut firmly on the table for opec-plus? stephen: it is really unclear to see because you look at the supply in the market and the market does seem pretty well supplied. wti even before this discussion with the wall street journal, you have already seen oil prices really come down due in part to weak chinese demand. you saw some headlines about the reducing quarantine for folks coming into the country. despite all that, you are still seeing hard lockdowns in some

places. we still have their foot on this virus and if the demand does not come back in the world's biggest importer of crude oil, you do have a problem for the market and that is something opec-plus will have to reconcile in december. tom: the analysis is always on point. thank you. the other interesting story was the deal for lng between china and qatar for a long-term contract. manus: yes, and that flow of lng, just as europe is full with storage. where does the next long-term contract go to? we handed over to bloomberg markets next with anna and mark. this is bloomberg. ♪