>> we welcome the bnn audience. i am john hyland. kris jenner rinaldo is leaving -- cristiano rinaldo is leaving manchester united immediately. the team announced the departure in a tweet and thanked him for his contribution. the european commission proposed an emergency cap on emergency gas prices above current levels. the commission is trying to prevent more damage from

russia's squeeze on energy supplies. it is seeking a cap of 250 million euros per megawatt hour. it is yet to be approved. in the u.k., an antitrust watchdog is investigating google and alphabet. they are looking into the company's dominance of cloud gaming. a study concluded apple and alphabet have the power to "exercise a stranglehold on app stores and web browsers." oecd says banks must raise rates even as the global economy sinks into a slow down. they warned inflation and its impact on real incomes will only get worse if policymakers failed to act. it raises inflation forecasts year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am john hyland. this is bloomberg.

amber: i am amber kanwar in for jon erlichman. kriti: and i am kriti gupta. traders preparing for thanksgiving day and it is an autopilot mode moment. the s&p 500 hovering your session highs. the move is in line with the daily trading rates. down six basis points, 376, but as the yields come down the dollar also weakens. on the back of that we have news coming out of the brent crude space. $89 handle and the idea of a

december 4 production hike are not as solid as they once were earlier this week. giving a boost to the commodity, up 2%. amber: we are also tracking retail. this is a number of major retailers that have reported the best-performing stock on the s&p. sales did not blow the door down but signal the worst of the sales declines are behind them. abercrombie & fitch, a store i have long aged out of, but suppressing investors with profit. dollar tree on the flipside offered an outlook that was not necessarily as robust as investors were looking for. one of the things they have gotten into his consumables, food. lower margin business. as people are going to the dollar stores for that, it hurts dollar tree's margins.

nordstrom one the last retailers after the bell. will it go the way of target or macy's? we will keep an eye on that. kriti: another major story investors are starting to pay attention to is the potential for a rail strike. a little bit of deja vu. this time it comes as members of the two largest railway unions failed to agree. ian colburn has been following this very closely. he was explaining it to me like a child this morning. this story is fascinating but walk us through the next steps. how could these next few weeks play out? ian: as you mentioned, the biden administration thought it solved this problem in september when they dispatched marty walsh to reach an agreement, which he did. the president said this was a win for america but here we are

a couple of months later staring down the strike deadline for these rail workers at the beginning of december. if they do not agree with the carriers, and if congress does not intervene to force a contract, we are looking at a full-blown national rail strike weeks before christmas. amber: there has been a lot of numbers on how that would impact costs. can you walk us through how that would happen? ian: they haul so much cargo almost everything would be affected. you would have ports where the ships are coming in and goods not getting onto the trains to haul them inland. a retail industry expert i spoke with yesterday talked about how christmas shopping may not be interrupted as much as you might think because a lot of stores

already have the nonperishable goods in stock. but it could be bad for agriculture, bad for food on store shelves, it could be bad for a number of other goods that need to be shipped more regularly. kriti: let's talk about the political consequences. it is fascinating to me to think, ultimately, this could come to a congressional move at the end of the day and would impair the labor movement. which just helped democrats, to some extent, when the midterms. walk us through the irony of that. ian: biden and democrats in congress have two options if this does not get resolved outside of their influence. neither of them are good. number one, they would allow the nationwide rail strike before christmas. number two, they would essentially have to betray the leaders and rank-and-file

members of organized labor who helped the president win the white house in 2022 and helped them maintain the senate in 2022. -- 2020 and helped them maintain the senate in 2022. those same people will be critical in 2024 for the president. it is difficult to see a way out of this other than the parties agreeing independently, where they do not end up offending someone important to them. amber: how close are the two sides? what are the key sticking points? ian: right. well, senior union officials i spoke with recently after the vote came down yesterday seemed quite defeated, actually. they do not see much of a path to negotiate forward with the railroad companies because the railroad companies have the

leverage knowing congress can intervene and intervene, as unions see it, on behalf of the railroad companies. both sides are fairly pessimistic that a deal will come independently. as for the sticking points, the big one continues to be paid sick leave, scheduling and general quality-of-life issues. these railroad workers do not have any paid sick time. what they have is a pot of flexible paid time off they can use to go to the doctor and they cannot be punished by using it to go to the doctor. but there are folks in the union and on the left who think that is not enough. kriti: something we'll keep an eye on. ian kullgren, thank you as always. walking us through what is turning into a complicated story. a rail strike would add to the slowdowns you are already seeing. stocks and bonds alike.

economists are also scared. earlier today the oecd said global growth will slow 2.2%. they did not forecast a recession. the acting chief economist said banks would hold price hikes as they fight inflation. >> right now, what we are talking about is large inflation in many parts of the world. monetary policy has to continue to be decisive. it has to do what it has to do to get out of the situation. i think we are seeing positive signs in some parts of the world. amber: joining us for her view of the economy and the fixed income market is kelsey berro, jp morgan asset management. it looks like the markets are climbing the wall of worry. whether it is china going back into lockdown, clear signals of a recession next year, continued

fed talking of higher terminal rate. what do you make of today's recent enthusiasm or optimism, i should say? kelsey: i think the majority of the optimism is coming from the last cpi report. what we saw -- and it is only one data point -- but there is informational value. it suggests the leading indicators that are showing disinflation are starting to come through. when i step back i think of the fed and where they are going. we think they are about 70% to 80% done with the tightening cycle. they need to hike maybe two or three more times and we always said the fed funds rate needs to be above the rate of inflation for the fed to pause. what we are looking at is the three and six month funds rate around 6%. but where they are going, we think, is closer to 3% to 4% and

that will allow the fed to pause early next year. kriti: we are talking about pausing already when there are so many global central banks talking about tightening quickly. the ecb looking to go into restrictive territory even though, to some extent, they are easing with the quantitative easing. at the same time, they are doing it into recession calls. the u.s. is different it seems, we are not there yet. the recession is not 100% guaranteed. is there a -- this is a long way of saying, is there going to be a soft landing or is that off the table? kelsey: the u.s. is different but what i would look at to really inform that view of, is the soft landing possible? of course it is possible. but when i look at the twos-tens curve, we are almost -75. they are saying this policy

trajectory the fed is going after and they are continuing to go after is going to be sufficient to bring down inflation and to bring down growth. the soft landing, i think, is fairly tricky. why we think it is still narrow is quantitative tightening, which nobody is talking about right now but is in the background, will continue to ramp up next year. we were looking at the balance sheet. at the beginning of this year it was growing. right now, we are getting back to the levels we were december 2021. there is more qt to come. that continued tightening suggests we are not all clear despite one good inflation print. kriti: you mentioned the twos-tens curve. in previous recessions it has been sometimes 52 or 53.

it hit -200 and counting. does that matter? is it an accurate gauge given the front end is so driven buy the fed? is it a broken gauge? kelsey: i do not think it is broken but there are others you want to look at. you want to look at the three month bill rate versus the 10 year rate. all of these indicators are saying the fed is getting to a level that is significantly tight. we are getting to the point where the fed is going to think about pausing and for investors, what we are thinking about -- we have been position very defensive all year. when do we start extending? because what is starting to look attractive is that high quality, fixed income in that portfolio. kriti: kelsey berro of jp morgan joining me on set. thank you as always. day one of the ftx bankruptcy hearing is underway in delaware with lawyers saying a substantial amount of assets are

stolen or missing. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." the ftx chapter 11 bankruptcy case began in delaware and ended. it got off to a dramatic start. an attorney for ftx saying a tremendous amount of assets have been stolen or missing. joining us is sonali basak.

let's start with the hearing itself. a pretty wild day in court. sonali: a large point of contention was whether they kept the creditor names private. right now, they will not reveal the name of the creditors for privacy purposes. however, that is something they may revisit later. i will also say an interesting part is that a lawyer for ftx mentioned of the venture investments made by ftx, those are assets. those are assets they could sell the stakes to or find value in. of course, that is an ax backed of the bankruptcy that -- an aspect that touches banks far and wide. amber: this has been a domino

effect. ftx was the first to fall but we are watching so many other players at risk. maybe you can bring us up-to-date on the latest with genesis and its parent company, the digital currency group, which has a lot of stake in the game. it is unclear what other parts of its business, like grayscale, could also be affected. sonali: a lot of people have been talking about that discount in grayscale's bitcoin trust. we do not know that there is contagion from genesis to the other parts of that empire. it is a great question because people are watching closely. this is the whale in the room and so is genesis. when it comes to genesis' trading business, they did not halt business or withdrawals. but the lending business did. if you see the timeline of events, that happened quickly after the liquidity crunch.

we heard about this frenzy of capital raising that has been sought around the world. we reported $1 billion being sought. we do not know where that stands but they have warned investors a potential bankruptcy could happen without that funding. we have definitely been on the phone left and right and there has been a lot of insight into these businesses, specifically genesis' lending and gemini earnings. it had been a lending counterparty but as for the rest of the empire, no news for now. kriti: something we will keep an eye on. sonali basak all over the story with genesis and all things ftx. thank you. coming up, the canadian housing boom may be ending. soaring interest rates hurt demand and send home prices lower. one other signal to the nations could be. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." the big take focuses on the housing market in canada. there are cracks appearing as interest rates soar and the trend could hold clues of what is to come for other nations. kevin portland cowrote the story and joins us from the newsroom. thank you for joining us. we have an international audience and the canadian housing market has been a topic of speculation even pre-covid. walk us through why canada is seeing such a housing boom, or has been, in the past? kevin: that's right. canada did not have a correction after the 2008 financial crisis the way they did in the u.s. that goes to how mortgages are structured here and the loan losses were lower. the housing market has had an

uninterrupted 25 years of gains. those have been a lot faster too. the real estate market makes up a larger share of the economy in canada than any other developed country. the number of real estate agents has grown 45% the last decade. canada has run further ahead of other countries based on those factors. kriti: let's broaden this out. the idea of the canadian housing market is showing cracks. what does that mean for other housing markets around the world? the u.k., for example, functioning on a different timetable when it comes to the mortgage. is there any roadmap for other nations? kevin: the canada, u.k., australia have similarities. there are also similarities between canada and the u.s. the question the canadian housing market might be able to

answer is will this increase in trest rate increase because a crash? what we have seen is there is a smattering of stories that had to sell their homes. one person took out extra mortgages to get through the covid crisis. another person bought a condo as an investment because they could not afford a home for the whole family. they bought it on a variable rate mortgage which has skyrocketed and they are forced to sell. the economists and real estate experts said right about when we hit march when these interest rate increases have been in the system for a year, we will start to see how people can handle stresses. how many will have to sell? how many can hang on? that will determine the extent to which this becomes a self reinforcing cycle. kriti: 45 seconds. what does this mean for people dealing with the inflationary

pressures in canada itself? if you see a housing market crash, that is a lot of personal wealth people are losing. is there panic? kevin: there is a lot of concern, although we are not seeing panic. one thing we noticed is not a lot of inventory on the market. people are sitting other houses, not selling yet. but the mortgages reprice more quickly in candida higher -- quickly in canada, higher interest rates. kriti: thank you to kevin orland. check out that story online. the s&p 500 up 1%. the nasdaq up 1%. the russell is only up 6/10 of 1%. this is a low volume ahead of the holiday.

the bond market a little bit of volatility. the 10 year yield 3.75 to the downside, bringing the dollar lower. more markets coverage ahead. i am kriti gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

john: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, hears the first word. i am john hyland. millions of lives are at risk in ukraine this winter. destroyed infrastructure has left 10 million people without power. in washington, a bipartisan group of u.s. senators urged the biden administration to reconsider the decision to not provide ukraine with armed drones. 16 senators penned a letter to lloyd austin, urging him to give drones to ukraine. the pentagon declined to comment on the letter.