mark: welcome, i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's "first word news." in venezuela, the government of president maduro and the opposition have agreed to resume talks this weekend. it potentially opens the door for the united states to ease oil sanctions. the talks will include conditions for venezuela's 2024 elections. the eu is discussing capping the price of russian crude oil at $65-$70 per barrel.

eu ambassadors are meeting today with the aim of improving the cap mechanism and a proposed price level. jerusalem was rocked by two explosions today. it was a sharp escalation after months of violence between israelis and palestinians. diligent groups both praised the attacks. -- militant groups praised the attacks. amazon is doubling down on hollywood. the company plans to spend more than $1 billion per year to produce movies that it will release in theaters. that is the largest commitment to movie theaters yet by an internet company. amazon plans to make 12-15 movies per year for theatrical release. streaming services have surpassed theaters with their original movies.

global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. >> low volume is the story. if you look at the s&p 500, green on the screen. nothing to write home about. look at the bond market where you are seeing less volatility than expected. it's kind of asleep at the wheel. the dollar weakness is going to be crucial. look at brent crude trading at $84. we're still looking at the

december 4 meeting for opec. there's a lot going on when we talk about the economic growth picture. jon: the energy story has been a weak spot for stocks broadly speaking. we are saying that with a selloff in a number of names. you have a positive reaction in the marketplace from what john deere had to say which is that demand is looking good and the supply chain improvements have been a helping force. on the other side, weakness for autodesk and their concerns are front and center. also, nordstrom's under pressure. then you have analysts weighing in on hard-hit stocks. tesla has been higher today including commentary from two banks suggesting the stock fell too far too fast. we will see with time how investors feel about the technology stocks. kriti: for now, ahead of black

friday stateside, we are looking at retailers closely. broadly, the sector is treading water. is the consumer at the end of the day still thriving? listen to what our guest had to say. >> the consumers out there they have started early but as we heard from a slew of retailers, the second half of october was weak. the beginning of november many said was volatile. retailers are out there, they are pushing the promotions because they need to move inventory. jon: let's get more perspective. black friday is almost here. obviously right now, we have seen this with nordstrom and in many ways you have been predicted we might hear the story.

the challenge of navigating through a lot of inventory heading into the holidays. what have been key takeaways from you? >> the takeaways we are hearing, the positive surprise is that inventory increases are moderating. this will lead to good deals and good values for the consumer. i think store sales will accelerate while you are seeing a moderation on online sales. people want to socialize and me together. we have not had this type of in person shopping for two years so i think were going to get that. christmas is on a sunday this year so the low will be deep and it makes the end of the holiday season, people feel that they can wait until friday or saturday. the signs of success for the season, what the promotional levels will be, who can keep the levels maintained in order to come out more profitable? it's going to be a promotional

season and consumers will get a good deal. kriti: it's crucial when you talk about the inventory levels and promotional levels specifically with nordstrom. the idea of higher markdowns are there kit -- achilles' heel at the moment. getting rid of the inventory levels, does that mean this holiday season is going to be a leaner christmas for these retailers relative to previous years? >> one of the things we have seen is earnings estimates and earnings guidance from companies for the fourth quarter. for many, it is leaner. when i think that investors have focused on, what is the outlook for 2023? 2022 is done. we know the supply chain headwinds, there is inflation, and we know the challenges that retailers have had in bringing consumers back fully. we have a shift going on. pandemic versus post-pandemic goods. occasion where, cosmetics,

footwork -- footwear. where we are seeing weakness in the cozy and active items. we have a true change that is occurring. jon: in terms of a management team that is sending you a message on how they are never getting through this outside of the different pockets of retail, what is the kind of communication that you are looking to see as to whether or not a company is a worthy investment right now? >> i want to hear about how they're planning for 2023. how they are set up on the top line, what they are doing for marketing, product innovation, how they are executing. when i think of some of the names out there, look at all to. store designs. --ulta is looking to embrace their customer in new ways almost by category instead of all different brands.

i look at companies like -- look how they are reinventing the platform uggs these days. you have another which is their new learning shoot that is gaining acceptance in expanding categories. look at the off prices or tjx, you see an abundance of brands of value that are appealing to them. what's old and reinventing? look at macy's. they are doing interesting things. jon: -- kriti: one of the key parts of macy's earnings was the idea that the higher income consumer is perhaps a little bit cushioned from the inflationary pressures everywhere else. in theory, you would think that would trickle across the other competitors like nordstrom. why does macy's have the edge on

that story? >> overall, we see nordstrom with their rack division, i need more premium brands. when you thing about macy's, bloomingdale's is celebrating their 150 birthdate. there is a lot of newness, a high income customer and they have targeted how to match the data of what is selling with the products and personalization they have in the store. don't forget, service counts and so does the in-store experience. we think about the brands, we have other cut -- companies reinventing themselves. look at ralph lauren. they have also become more up-to-date and they are capturing a younger consumer than what they had in the past while maintaining their average prices at higher levels than the past. kriti: that's something we will keep an ion especially ahead of the season. thank you. coming up, the imf has a new

deal with ukraine paving the way for billions of dollars in aid. we will speak with the minister of economy. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jon: this is bloomberg markets.

ukraine has reached a deal with the imf that could pave the way to unlock billions in aid for the war-torn country. canadian businesses are learning about how to invest in ukraine's future. at a conference today, ukraine's deputy minister of economy is here for that gathering and she joins me now. thank you for being with us. we talked about the developer with the imf. in terms of the eight needs more broadly, you are about that on this trip. what can you tell us? >> first of all, i would like to thank you for all of your support. we are very grateful for all of the political, financial, military, humanitarian support for all of the people you are sheltering here in canada. i would say that during the times of war, the ukrainian economy is demonstrating huge flexibility. however, we are very grateful for the help but we think that for the end of the year, the ukrainian economy might fall by 35%. at the same time, the russian

economy might fall between 4% and 6%. that means that all these sanctions are not enough. when i meet my foreign friends, the representatives of the other countries, i reiterate on the fact that we need more sanctions because this will not let russian government make this massive attacks on ukrainian infrastructure. jon: i want to have mcauley ask you a question now as well. kriti: i want to talk to you specifically about the role ukraine plays in terms of transporting natural gas. can they maintain that in the coming years? >> i would say that ukraine is now demonstrating a huge bravery

and the things that no one would expect from ukraine. we are going to be up to all of the challenges and we will stay strong. jon: on this trip to canada, obviously this is a unique opportunity for you to engage with canadian officials but also canadian businesses. what are those conversations like right now? >> we speak with them about investments, the ways to invest in ukraine and the great opportunity that was launched not long ago is advantage ukraine platform. it's an online platform where any investor can file an application and find the industry to invest in ukraine. we're very open to the investments into the military technology, metallurgy, agriculture, and i.t. industry. we believe that on our way to victory and after the victory,

ukraine will become an investment mecca for all of the world. we're talking about supporting from canada private investors in the field of big, small, medium enterprises. help is never enough because now we have a war and we need this help and aid from the international society. kriti: you specifically mentioned agriculture. i want to ask about what the future of the ad -- agriculture space looks like. how much of the grain in the world is at risk given the tensions? >> the situation is not terrible because as you know, ukraine is feeding all of the world and because of the things we have now imports this is caused -- russia has caused hughes

problems -- huge problems for the world in terms of food security. we believe that the world will stop russia from doing these things. jon: the world bank is estimated rebuilding could cost upwards of $350 billion. it is such a wide pool of areas that will require investment. agriculture, construction, and we talked about infrastructure and energy more broadly. where would you like to beat now that you are having these conversations possibly with canadian partners as well, where would you like to be as we get to the end of this year in terms of those conversations? >> in these conversations, there are no time limits in the sense of war schedule. we want to do the best in our cooperation. we're talking about all the possible aid, possible financing we can attract from the canadian

investors. jon: i talked earlier about the possibility that the economy this year might fall 35%. what are the different wildcards on where the economy lands based on how things play out from here? what would you be watching most closely? >> we will be watching the attacks on infrastructure and i hope that the sanctions that international governments will impose on russia will stop russia from attacking our infrastructure so that we can stand on this number. jon: the biden administration is putting forward more military aid. is that a consideration, the continued nil terry aid support in protecting our infrastructure and ultimately the economy? >> absolutely. we are very grateful for all the support and we want to save the

billions of lives of our people and if we receive no military aid and no sanctions, we know that imposing sanctions may lead the governments to money and profits but if we do not impose sanctions on russia now, we will lose billions of craniums lives. -- ukrainians lives. sanctions are the most humane action. it prevents our enemy for killing people. jon: thank you for your time. ukraine's deputy minister of the economy joining us in toronto. she has participated in a conference possibly tied to getting investment here in canada. coming up, a preview of the fomc minutes set to be released at the top of the hour.

that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." our reporter is joining us about what to expect from the fomc minutes we are expecting at the top of the hour. what are the expectations? >> the biggest thing folks are going to be looking out for, this is something that jay powell referenced in the press conference after the meeting took place on november 2. he said the focus is shifting toward how high the rates will need to go ultimately. it will be interesting to see

how that was discussed in the meeting and how many people on the fomc supported that. jon: the idea of where inflation is going from here for those who are looking at any evidence we are seeing cooling. i imagine looking for clues on what the fed is thinking on that front will be worthy as well? >> absolutely it is such a red-hot issue. what's going on with inflation? how the fed is looking at it. one thing to remember, at this early november meeting, we did not yet have the october inflation report that showed the first signs of a slowdown. we have to keep that in mind. fed officials have not yet seen that or they had not seen that so they did not talk about a slowdown because they didn't have the data yet. kriti: speaking of the data, what kind of market reaction could we see out of this?

is there a game changer, a big one? >> that will rest with how many people on the fomc, it we get an indication for how many people supported jay powell's view of potentially needing to go higher with interest rates. you have a lot of people on board with that, that's not going to be received well by markets. we saw stock market losses during the press conference where chairman powell expressed that. perhaps we will see a mirroring of that today. we've had a pretty decent stock market performance over the past few weeks, so perhaps a more hawkish tone out of the meetings could start to put a damper on that. jon: quickly on the jobs front as well, we are watching as we look at the terminal rate situation right now. the jobless claims we got today

indicated that idea that the employment picture is turning. we had so many layoff announcements. in terms of looking ahead, the conversation around the employment front, how key is that going to be? >> that's going to start playing a bigger and bigger role especially if we see inflation continue to come down a little bit. we will see more of a focus on jobs. we have seen a little bit of a slowdown. each month there has been, the additions have been fewer and fewer even though it is quite robust still. one thing to keep in mind in this week's around the holidays is there tends to be a lot of volatility. we are coming up to the end of the year, it's the holiday season, there's going to be a lot of changes going on because of that. certainly i think folks will be looking for how the broader trend plays out. will we see this and the claims data next week for example. kriti: thank you as always.

we are seeing green on the screen. the s&p is up 0.2%. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service

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romaine: macro driven market looking for the next clues as to what the fed has to say. we are over 4000 on the s&p. katie: we have moving day averages in line but pretty quiet. romaine: keeping an eye on the stock market and treasuries. deeper inversion on the two tens curves. michael mckee bringing it to us now. mike: not much daylight on the proper pace of policy.