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♪ >> a very good morning. i'm manus cranny in dubai. with the stories that settle your agenda. parts of beijing seeing panicked buying. struggling to contain outbreaks across the nation. e.u. efforts to strike deals on price caps for gas. division push approval measures into the middle of december. black friday. retailers brace for muted shopping results. why thousands of amazon warehouse workers plan to protest over pay and working conditions. we got there. it wasn't daybreak europe that

broke anything but central banks around the world are worried they might and you may have as bad a landing as you did in 2008. it was brutal. brutal landings may mean it is time for tin hats. 38 basis points this month, the biggest drop since march 2020. yes, you can argue it is peak inflation. maybe we're facing a profound economic shift and it might be a little more uncomfortable than your average soft landing three times in the history of the u.s. economy. bonds are back. i love it. bonds are back. buy your bonds. let me show you what else is going on across the rest of the markets. never far from a bit of a mob index. a drop to 4.42%.

are we really ready for 2.25%? despite all the covid news out of china in terms of a real sense of anst there on the ground. anst there on the ground. deeply unwinding the shorts in the pound. there is a bias for further tightening. we'll hear more from the bank of england later on. bitcoin. down 1% at 16, 365. what'll the backstop to the crypto world look like? those are your markets. reporters around the world are primed and ready to go juliette standing by with all the market action in asia. for a bit of friday fun, we have

clara. we're going to talk about supermarket delivery apps in beijing. they are overwhelmed. the city's rising covid caseloads is triggering lockdowns. a sign things are going into quite a crisis mode to deal with record numbers of covid. what is the latest, emma? >> that's right. beijing very much seeing record cases every day. they are contributing to that overall tally of more than 30,000 cases a day. it is really huge for china that went nuts during this pandemic with not a case at all. we have seen lockdown like restrictions in many parts of beijing. they are not calling wide public

lockdowns anymore because they have that guidance from the top leadership to keep this less disruptive and more targeted but it is a very infectious virus and they have seen numbers up they have to suppress covid. we have seen restrictions on the ground that is leading to the panic, people overloading the shopping apps which is basically how people in beijing get their groceries these days. you can't get an appointment for -- money there. and people are concerned not just about getting covid but about getting caught up in the gofd dragnet if you are in a place where there is a case and sent off to an isolation center, which does happen. >> and there is the index of stocks down .9%. let's see how these images hit

market risk and sentiment around the world. thank you very much. emma with the latest on china covid zero. investors are weighing the recent gains in the upswing of covid. it depends on how much china you want in your parking lots doesn't it? >> it is holding up ok today. the tech players are bearing the brunt of the selling. weighing on the overall bench mark. a subdued session. we have known clearly from wall street to thanksgiving. the bank of japan's comfort level, 25 basis points. in tokyo, the fastest pace in 40 years. seeing weakness in the dollar there. a bit of a stable momentum that

we saw on the back of that 25 basis point hike. stopping growth against this inflationary background. let's have a quick look at malaysia. what a week it has been. we have a prime minister in malaysia as we broke yesterday afternoon. the biggest rally. the ringette at a three-month high. a lot of analyst ♪s saying it could be good for malaysia and foreign investment and you have blackrock saying malaysia is looking a scalable alternative to china. >> great work this week on the election and all of the market. the e.u. has paused its efforts to approve an energy package over deep division capping the cost of gas. let's get to our reporter now. one of the main sticking points.

is it east-west in terms of eastern europe to western europe? what is the blockage? >> indeed there is a force in there for the energy package which is so much needed for countries in the european union in the current energy crisis and the main sticking point is the cap. what happened is this week, the european commission proposed this price cut level. something that the nations have been asking me to do more months and months and came it over 275 euros per hour. they didn't like the e it and went as far as to call it a joke and mochrie and something that is not -- mockery they talked through it and decided to take a pause to postpone it through mid decision

when they will have another emergency meeting of energy ministers to really identify what this price cut is going to be and they have to submit their proposals today. >> ok. let's see if they can break the impasse there. thank you so much with the details there. it is friday. all over your instagram. you have been bombarded. it is going to be one of the busiest days online yet amazon workers around the world are plan progress tests and walkouts in 24 countries. the parent company of zara are planning two diverse strikes. clara, thanks for being with us. how is holiday shopping season looking there for the retailers? let's start there. >> so retailers this year are

facing quite a few challenges different from last year. last year we were seeing supply chain issues and retailers struggling to stock shelves. making them think how they spend. so we're seeing sales come earlier and bigger. so in britain you have got -- started offering deals throughout december and many retailers offer steeper discounts than last year. >> it is black friday. we're able to get out. we're able to go to shops. we're actually able to physically be out and about. how will consumers shop this year? what do you think they are going to be looking for? do they still have deep cash in

their pockets from covid? >> so they are looking to save and they are looking for deals. there is definitely a lot of interest in black friday. we have seen searches for black friday sales online up by a quarter from last year and also showing they want to take part. there was one in britain that showed that 17% of shoppers wanted to participate in -- 70% wanted to participate in the sales vs. 50% last year. the only difference is they will be looking to spend less and save as much as possible. >> clara, let's see how the day goes. make sure you're all over your instagram for those special offers. thank you for joining us on this black friday. a look ahead to big manic friday. coming up, my next guest from

saxo markets on bloomberg. ♪

>> i do think it makes sense on our side to be a little bit on the slower side compared to what we have done in the past. >> mandatory price stability. we may need to continue. >> we will need to be mindful. adjusting too little will leave inflation too high and adjusting too much could lead to an unnecessarily painful downturn. >> we can see what happens in the economy as a whole and to what extent what we have done really, really sort of takes hold. >> if the economy develops

differently, inflation stops being a concern, then i consider the case for reducing as appropriate. central banks talking about their take it to against inflation and the world's most aggressive and synchronized tightening in 40 years. slowing the pace of rate hikes but there is developing divergence among global central banks. they have become increasingly dovish while bank officials say rate hikes are needed to deal with sticky inflation. divergence is the banner headline. it would be the starting point for us here. do you think that divergence ultimately means rolling over of the dollar and the buying of g10? good morning. >> hi, good morning.

divergence really is the key. that's because we are coming out in a synchronized phase as you just said. also all of the economies globally have a set of challenges. inflation across the global economies. the other practice to look at, currencies for markets, the consumption demand and a host of factors that all of the economies need to look at and the starting points have been different for most of them and where they need to get to really get that inflation monster in control. divergence will likely be in play going into 2023 as we move towards the second half of the tightening cycle which will likely be slower and more fragmented as you said.

but i think the u.s. dollar, that is potentially -- because we have priced in the interest rate part of the u.s. fed, despite the dovish comments we have seen recently. i think rolling over of the dollar is something that -- we have if not a recession, at least a slowdown in demand coming. we have liquidity crisis. manus: there is a lot there. you can't concur to a rolling over of the dollar at the moment. the debate is what is the scale of the slowdown that we face? i started the show with a bond market showing a 38 point basis point drop. the largest since march 2020. what is the bond market telling me? a lot of people coming here talk

their book and say it is going to be a soft landing. the bond market is not telling me that. what is it telling you? >> most of the signals if you look at the markets from the bond markets but also at the same time if you look at the equity market everything is rosy and looking quite good. we are still looking at a modest earnings but it is not something that can really -- we don't call it a recession. who is right? who is wrong? there are a lot of economic indicators that are weakening. if you look at the u.s there will be some amount of contraction in demand. whether technically we can call it a recession or not. it is a matter of time for us to decide that. anna: what is the litmus test that is going to define for you? we're looking at some data.

you and i have both settled in on the housing numbers, new orders are dropping. housing market rs have been flashing rising sign. it is not like 2008. we're not using our houses like credit cards but it is a store of wealth. there is wealth destruction erupting around the world in crypto, in various crypto exchanges etc. what is the flashing signal for you that will define a material slowdown? >> i think for me, i'm watching two key indicators. the first would be a slowdown in the jobs market. again, you know, that has to happen because the fed is raising rates. you will see that over the next few months. but the sharp rise in unemployment rates, maybe 5% would be a big warning signal for me. the equity market, it will be key going into 2023.

and once that starts to set into expectations for the equity markets and we see those results coming in from earnings, i think these will be the two key signals for me that there is pressure on the economy. manus: ok. i'll put those down in my diary of angst and agony to keep an eye on. thanks for being with us. coming up, gains for u.b.s. swiss bank sees inflows into its asia wealth management as the rival credit swiss struggles. we'll bring you the latest on the story here on bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is santa fe break europe.

i'm manus cranny in dubai. >> rising covid cases are triggering lockdown like restrictions across many parts of beijing. china's capital saw more than 1800 new infections yesterday up from fewer than 100 a fortnight ago. schools and entertainment venues are closed. les delivery services struggling with demand. the world economy will be as weak next year as it was in 2009 after the financial crisis. global growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2023 with the risk of russia's conflict becoming a "forever war." malaysia's new p.m. will prove

he commands a parliamentary majority. anwar was sworn in friday night. the monarch intervened after no alliance secured a majority in the election last weekend. global news 24 hours a day on bloomberg quicktake, journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: thank you very much. clients fleethe troubled credit suisse. we have our finance leader. tom, it is interesting. this is into asia. how much of a blow is this to credit suisse? >> bad timing. the latest bits of bad news.

the asia angle is going to really hurt. that is where credit suisse, there is so much growth and wealth. this is not the kind of news they wanted to share with their shareholders. making a point of how sticky this move is. that is ultimately going to be the key question here. is this a temporary move or a reverse nl one? manus: has to do with compliance in terms of getting the money in. then it is a question of leverage. when i was -- it was about the deleveraging. it has been a consistent theme. the cash might be there and it may be netting you money but it is whether that is active and sticky. that is the rub isn't it? >> that is the core of the business. they are talking to ubs. now. it is a relationship game. right now credit suisse is

obviously not doing a great job of that. if you're a wealthy client, you're looking at your options and will be a bit nervous about credit suisse. manus: from an experience of seeing client money in and client money out, when client money leaves it is hard to get it all the way back. during the interview, i said did you have a big credit suisse moment, did you see a monster inflow? he didn't say the money had been bolstered by that. it is going to be hard to carry that conversation. we have a rights issue within the credit suisse family at the moment. >> more bad news. yest shares dropped about 2%. 6% wednesday. waiting for them to open now in switzerland and see how they do. yeah, big picture is obviously if you're a credit suisse shareholder you're not having a great year. manus: definitely not. if you're an employee, the equity you have built up over the long-term incentive program. worth less every day.

that makes your ability to get a new job a lot harder. deutsche bank expanding in asia at the same time all of this other is going on. covid. they were the problem child of europe a couple of years ago. >> they can look at deutsche bank and say hopefully at some point we can get through this. you know, i think it is the deutsche bank executive was saying it is southeast asia. he is talking about deal makers. ecm remains a best bit of a disaster. banks are expecting a bit of m&a activity. that's where they think the investment imang perform in asia. manus: doing better than the football team, aren't they? >> exactly. manus: passive comparison. they are blowing the budget.

they are outstanding large. tom metcalf on the ground in dubai with ubs and credit suisse. now let me show you a yield curve. deeply, deeply ominous sign for europe. this is the most inverted yield curve since 1992. why did i go for 1992? i want you all to know this is an ominous sign even though stocks have rebounded by 15%. why is 1992 important to me? what do you think? the year over the first bloomberg terminal. that's why we like 1992. been feeding the beast ever since. coming up, black friday is the focus. how are consumers

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manus: good morning, i am manus cranny in dubai. covid alarm, china's case is a top 30 1000 for the first time, with parts of beijing seeing panic buying. they are struggling to contain the outbreaks across the nation. and injure impasse, eu efforts to strike a deal for price caps on russian crude stored as divisions pushed approval on some till mid december. that friday gloom, retailers brace for muted shopping results where thousands of amazon warehouse workers across the country's lamb protest over pay and working conditions.

very good morning. we got that. it is black friday. you have to focus on the shopping, not the bond market. it is the tale that is wagging the dog today. this is a malevolent message, which is the biggest collapse in bond yields since march 2020. there is something coming down the pipe. the bond market does not like. could it be a financial shift? or is the glass just half-full. various guest that i have had this morning, say that market valuations are getting more attractive. the fed will pivot by next year. they also say growth is going to collapse in the united states of america. maybe you do want to be a bit long off bonds. equities are a bit stronger after the turkey dinner for thanksgiving. you are just seeing a little bit of a drop in yields on the short end of the curve, nymex is short one third of 1% as they cannot

agree. you don't want to get too wet into that, that is nothing to do with sterling strength. they are saying they take sterling index to neutral. the opera performance been to do with deeply the short positions. in the medium-term, it will come harder in the u.k.. i will leave you with that thought. client has bounced from his lowest. -- bitcoin has bounced from its lowest. nine :00 a.m. in the u.k., you will get consumer confidence readings for italy. then at 12 :00 noon, the data from mexico. quickly followed up 12: 30 by the economic updates from brazil including the federal debt data. as i say, it is black friday.

it is kicking off the holiday shopping season in the u.s. and elsewhere. retailers such as walmart, target, and posco, seem to be positioned for a solid period or a flight to value. amazon workers are planning strikes in over 40 countries. inflation takes its toll. we have the insights director at spring word with us. black friday, where will be the strongest delivery? is it going to be all hail the red white and blue? or will it be the brits? >> that is a really tricky one. i have a feeling that it might be the u.k.. the u.s. is very used to do that friday. it has been a long-term characteristic of the start of the festive season. people are very used to it. it is a great day out after thanksgiving.

in the u.k., it is relatively new. i think it has now become in the established part. it is now the official start of the festive season. people are desperate to get out and have some of that enjoyment that they have locked the last two years. people are drained and tired of shopping holy online. there is not much festivity on a laptop screen. they want to go out, it will be busy. people will be looking carefully at value and cost of goods and services. because, people are stressed. manus: i am looking at a host of different stories on the bloomberg terminal this morning. various products, 50 bucks off some earbuds to listen to, i won't say which brand. are we going to pay up? are we going to spend on large ticket items, luxury items?

are we going to spoil ourselves in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, energy crisis? sterling is on its knees. >> people are going to be more careful. children have lists of desired gifts, they will be looking to buy those as early as they can. there is a whole host of inventory issues, and lack of inventory that people are well aware of. they are conscious that if they don't buy them early, they might not get them at all. a lot of people are trying to outpace inflation. in the u.s., it is the highest it has been for 40 years. likewise in the u.k.. they could well face higher prices of the products that are still left, or they won't be there at all. i think there is a rush to buy things before it gets too late. people will be making careful choices. however, there is always a large portion of consumers who are willing to wash out on a bargain.

our wants and needs are very linked now. we want earbuds, then they translate that into need items. if there are good opportunities and good bargains, and a lot of people will --manus: amazon employees are about to go on strike. how we all just got far too is too cheap delivery? i am thinking british prices. two pounds 90 nine to have my lenses delivered, it is incremental in the cost. do we need to face some reality that people at the back end of this online phenomenon deserve higher wages and our costs are going to rise? are we prepared to pay for the back of the system? >> that is really interesting. amazon shaved cost where they can. people are starting to react to

that. many retailers are starting to look very carefully at costs and return policies because those --the overhead for those businesses. they are trying to find gains where they can. that means that they want to keep it low as they can despite the cost-of-living increase. naturally, i want some of the gains that amazon have made over the last few days --they will be facing increased costs. it is a critical time for amazon. are they willing to withstand a strike and not given to workers? or will they give into the higher wage increases? i have a feeling it might be the latter. manus: yes. certainly. there are a number of strikes planned around the world. let's close off with a view on -- i say bring back queuing up

massive crowds of people at front doors, not mass hysteria years ago on black friday. it is forever? >> what we have seen at springboard is that since covid has ended, the pandemic has finished, there has been a huge return to stores. shoppers are very keen to shop in stores. online trading is only slightly higher now than it was before covid, likewise in the u.s.. people clearly favor stores to buy products. whether or not we will have the long queues we used to have, that is a portion --, that makes it more comfortable for people to shop, and more attractive proposition to go out and it is not quite so stressful. i think definitely, the results we have seen, definitely store

shopping is here to stay and people enjoy it, particularly at this time of year. manus: i will leave you with one last laugh. i won't say which shop and which street, but i have actually queued in london the past three months to get into a couple shops. i don't know who is the bigger fool, me or the other people in the queue. i will leave you with that thought in the west. i of a shop. inside director for springboard. coming up, the very latest on china's worsening covid situation, the local daily cases are hitting another record. reports of panic buying in beijing. right here on bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> i actually reflect on the ftx situation, i kind of blame myself. >> i think the currency exchange has to provide for its users as to not lose their funds. >> right now, we have, it seems, from ftx, five to $10 billion in creditors as ftx has filed bankruptcy, they will be making claims. >> the due diligence was not called. it is absently outrageous. >> ftx has leveraged their novel and native ftt to boost their assets. likely as collateral to access loans. without money, they created a really quick scaling and both

their size and their power and authority. >> we got -- let them get too big. manus: some of the voices. sam bankman-fried's crumbling crypto empire took hold. bitcoin is up on the week. but, you are just seeing over the space of a week, the crypto token associated with sam bankman-fried's empire, ftx, is down 8%. the count down one .4 percent on the week, it moves minute. the question is whether being crypto rescue plan, does it eradicate contagion fears? how much will be committed? up to $2 billion to projects is what we understand. cc was with haslinda yesterday. not is the crypto world as we go to the close of these five

trading days. 24 hour the day, 365 days a year for crypto. simone: the institute of international finance says the world economy will be as weak next year as it was in 2000 nine after the financial crisis. it says global growth is expected to slow to one point 2% in 2023. the risk of russia's conflict becoming a quote, forever war. there will be a two day strike in a historic walk out over pay. the royal college of nursing is demanding a 17 percent increase, which the government says is not affordable. it is the first ever national strike by nurses. ukraine says it has managed to restore about half of its power capacity knocked out by attacks from russia with water supply also back and give.

u.s. president biden says he is confident there will be supported in the newly elected pond -- congress. hoodlums were reaches the nine month mark. elon musk says twitter will vastly expand with the reinstatement of banned users from next week. that is after more than 70 percent of participants voted in favor of a general amnesty for suspended accounts in a poll organized by the company's new owner. meanwhile, twitter has now lost its final two employees in the regulatory --in brussels. just as it faces increasing scrutiny from eu lawmakers. six people were previously employed in the office. malaysia's new prime minister will test lawmakers support for his leadership, with a confidence vote on december 19th, to prove he commands a parliamentary majority. he was sworn in by the malaysian king on thursday night, hobbling

together a unity government. the monarch intervened after no alliance secured majority in the election last weekend. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: thank you very much. the supermarket delivery apps are being overwhelmed as the city's rising covid caseloads triggers lockdown like restrictions in some areas. emma leaves our asia virus coverage. it was the first story that came up in my five things i need to know this morning as i got into the car. it is certainly very potent imagery what they are preparing for in china for a pretty major covid spike. emma: it is major. more than 30,000 new cases, that

is a record. it might not be high when you look at these sort of cases that we are seeing globally. beijing has been saying all time highs for the past couple days, almost 2000 new cases today. there is obviously concern that there is a lot of covid in the community, they need to be resorting to lockdowns again, when, they are not expecting or seeing a very broad citywide lockdown, that would be huge. so symbolically tied to the communist party. we are seeing things shut down, piecemeal lockdowns that are creating quite a bit of restrictions on the ground. that is leading to panic, people are trying to stay home, they are overloading the supermarket delivery apps. to be fair, a big way which people are getting groceries in the capital these days.

and, the streets, people don't want to go out. one, the fear of covid, two, the fear of being exposed to the virus or those contact. manus: where is the government on this? what is their instruction? emma: the government are building more isolation centers. china has dealt with covid by trying to stop the transmission chains. they do that by isolating all cases in these temporary hospitals. they are getting shipping containers and tense and all these sorts of things in beijing in the anticipation of housing all these people as the cases arise. we are not seeing a very intense shanghai style lockdown, even in these places that are being

locked down in a more targeted way, people are able to go out to essential services like groceries and that sort of thing. that is very different to shanghai when you aren't even allowed to leave the building that led to all these issues with people not able to get food and even medications. manus: we will see what the response mechanism is now. lots of people saying we are going to get a rrr. we will catch you up throughout the week, thanks for the coverage this week. emma o'brien there. you can read more amidst the covid crisis as part of today's big take. get that on big take on your terminal or on bloomberg.com. coming up, round one of the world cup, it is finished. every nation has played. not all are rejoicing. we are live on the big

takeaways. the five big takes for football on bloomberg. ♪

♪ manus:'s daybreak, i am in dubai. we got there, we got to friday. the first week of a pretty amazing world cup for lots of reasons. saudi arabia toppled argentina, head in his hands. germany stunned by japan. they tallied up as they left. and, of course this brazil as well. we have all got our favorites. let's find out where her loyalties lie at the end of week one. the games have been pretty

tumultuous. how has it been? simone: my loyalties lie with the usa. they need a strong showing against england tonight. the key takeaways from this week for me, qatar has lived up to the test, the infrastructure test of the last 12 years. people have been able to get around, then able to come to the country and even leave for games. by that measure, there have been a few growing pains, but for the most part, that has gone well. also looking at the curious case of some of the empty seats in the stands. i have to say, there aren't empty seats everywhere, this is a phenomenon that is with select games. we have noticed that there are sometimes empty seats. does that mean people aren't there, does that mean they didn't go to the games? we are still trying to figure that out. manus: there is always questions

about whether people book the tickets and in turn up, who got brought in to fill the seats? there has been quite a controversy on a number of fronts. we have touched on it every day. workers rights, lgbtq+ rights, and rightly so, these should be addressed. do you think the political hubris will die down and this board will assign? --the sports will send -- -- ascent? simone: as teams decide to potentially push back against this be the decision, we may see more fans in the stadiums wearing rainbow attire, that is something that the welsh fa was telling their fans. also, i think it is really important, there husband these questions about the pedigree of

the middle eastern footballers and how qatar doesn't have this massive legacy of the sport, but we have really seen just how close to home both the loss of iran and the win by saudi arabia and for folks across this region. i think it goes to show how close, how much people care in this region about football. manus: they are mad about football to say the least. some of those things were pretty fantastic, you get a day off, national holiday. thank you so much, enjoy the weekend. hopefully the usa does well. let me show you what is going on with risk. sometimes banks are worried about drinking --breaking. let me show you a pretty punchy market. i thought we would lay it up. here is futures up by 0.2 01%.

i brought you the stoxx 600, it is under a pretty significant boost. you have this new news from this morning who is reluctant to step back on the rate hikes. you are seeing this flow in. i would say to you that he flow funds has been 41 weeks of eric to privatize clients of the bank of america have been exiting european equities. so, all is not gold not glitters. if you haven't got that right. ok. it has been ok. you have had a lot of me this week. bloomberg markets europe is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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