dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe."

i am dani burger in london with manus cranny in dubai with the stories that set your agenda. manus: fed officials including richmond president tom bargain again say they may need to hike further to break inflation, even if at a slower pace. >> very supportive of a path that is slower, probably longer, and potentially higher than where we were. manus: stocks and futures climbed, led by a rebound in china as the unrest over covid curbs ease amid heavy police presence. plus, crypto lender blockfi declares bankruptcy. it is the latest digital firm to collapse in the wake of ftx's failure. dani, where do you bank on the hawkish narrative from the fed? the bond market is much more

attuned to hawkish narrative. my favorite line, slower, longer, and potentially higher. good morning. dani: i did hear it along with the many other central bank speakers yesterday. you say that you have further to go. i know you are on top of this one over the yield curve. manus: yes. the risk is this, that it could trigger a financial crisis. he thinks you are in a vulgar era of inversion of the 1980's. you could trigger a credit crunch and a brutal recession. dani: to your point about the bond market, we have seen this 30 year yield dropped by 42 basis points. that is the most since 2019. is the fed trying to tell us that we have gone over our skis, loosening concessions --

conditions and central banks are committed to remaining restrictive? manus: not at all, but my favorite is bearish patel, which is the hawkishness of bullard, the factor is now nonexistent in the dollar. dani: i love it. i am saving that one as well. it is not just the fed trying to back down from loosening conditions. he also have strategist coming out about this equity market but perhaps we have gone too far. it continues to rally today. i will start with what is driving the rally. it might be china considering the csi 300 is up nearly 3% after tumbling yesterday over fears of the protests. we are not going to get those happening today given the police crackdown we have seen. that is helping to give the entirety of equity futures a relief today.

but bank of america, goldman sachs, and deutsche bank all say more pessimism. bank of america thinks the s&p will end next year at 4000 where we are now, and goldman sachs and deutsche bank saying a recession is not yet fully priced in. manus: and morgan stanley is qt. what would that do to the bond market? we have christine lagarde disbelieving of the peak in inflation, you have readiness to do another cut in oil. let's have another look at oil and across assets, this is what we have got. nymex is bouncing as china seems to be now under control but we will get more clarity about covid tenths. mark mobius looked at $10,000 as the next beat on bitcoin. yield differentials is what will drive the narrative in 2023.

dani. dani: a dollar not bothered, a rare occurrence for 2022. let's get the latest from the ongoing efforts to tame inflation to covid protests in china followed by the market reaction and more fallout from ftx. manus: let's put the fed speak in perspective. they are stressing and prepared to raise rates to curb further inflation. enda curran is there. the dollar is almost losing its faith, it's hawkish faith in the narrative. the dollar is rolling down, the bond market is listening. what does? the fed do next? ? enda: the fed is signaling that we are not yet finished. we have heard consistently overnight williams, barkin, bullard, the fed might end up peeking rates higher than the level of a few months ago. we had john williams talking

about demand in too strong for the economy. you had barkin making the point that even if you slowed down the pace of rate hikes, he thinks the final destination will be higher than people thought. and jim bullard to saying that we have more work to do as well. the debate is more about the pace of rate hikes, whether to go by 50 or not in december. the key takeaway is the fed's rate hike might end up that a higher peak than anticipated. dani: it seems neither is the ecb. what do you make of president christine lagarde saying she would be surprised if inflation in europe had peaked? enda: western europe is dealing with the peculiarities of the energy crisis. other parts of the world including commodity and food prices, there is a view that inflation has peaked but that does not mean inflation has come down to where it should be.

madame lagarde's comments go through with the idea that none of these central banks want to make a mistake or they wants to avoid the temptation of pulling back on the rate hiking cycle too soon. they want to stuff doubt inflation and then they will pick up the pace. dani: thank you. enda curran. let's bring into the conversation juliette saly who joined us from our singapore studio to check on the asian markets and it feels like a complete 180 from where we were at this time yesterday. juliette: as you mentioned, the fact that the protests overnight were more calm due to heavy police presence also what we heard, less than an hour, there will be a briefing on china's covid policies. if you want to read some of the tea leaves, a huge quarantine station was due for construction in chengdu. that has now been halted.

an estate mouthpiece says that those who are likely to get ill from covid do not need to take as many pcr tests. there is potentially some momentum that we will see a move away from these strict restrictions. you have the csi 300 up as much as we .2% in the afternoon trade and a lot of the tech players being supported by strong earnings as investors look away from covid zero. we also have support from developers with the bloomberg developments intelligence stocks rising by 9% today, so a risk on session and we have seen money going into the yen too, which is not risk on, but some from mliv saying the yen is finally starting to behave like a safe haven. let's look at what has happened with offshore yuan because the volatility against the dollar, the highest on record. the 30 day volatility has spiked in the month of november and this reflects the participants trying to time the movement of reopening. we heard yesterday goldman sachs saying we would likely be

disorderly and ba why agreeing with that. the protests over the weekend point to the challenges that china has managing its way out of these strict policies. manus: jules, i love the chart. you have given me something new with volatility in the end. you never failed to surprise. protests, we have been tracking these. they failed to take place last night and authorities placed heavy police presence in the capital and other major cities. this is a deterrent to the recent weekend protests. allen wan is there. if you were to describe what you saw compared to the weekend, how would you describe that? allen: using the word calm, i would have used the phrase, heavy police presence.

yesterday was a workday, the weather was not great in shanghai, and at the end of the day, it was police presence. the police installed new fencing along the road to prevent possible protesters from fleeing , being chased by police like they did in the weekend. and beijing as well, there were hundreds of police vehicles and tons of police through the bridge, which was a scene of a protest last month. outside of china, there were signs of activity, demonstrations of solidarity in cities like sydney, london, new york. at the university, there was a vigil were along the sides of the road, they were placing flowers at the foot of the statue and lighting candles. dani: thank you so much for the update. bloomberg's allen when in

shanghai and thank you for your coverage on this. to the crypto world where blockfi has become the latest crypto casualty, citing the ftx exposure. they are suing sam bankman-fried. for more on this, let's bring in joanna ossinger. was it a matter of time before blockfi ran into trouble considering that it had been bailed out by ftx? joanna: that is a good way to describe it. they have had problems for a while, hitting a $3 billion valuation in 2021, and then they got scrutiny from the u.s. over the lending programs they had. they took a hit from three arrows capital and then they had these deals with ftx where ftx u.s. gave them a credit line. there was the option to buy blockfi and it was too enmeshed in this. now we have the bankruptcy. manus: it is amazing.

this company was valued at $3 billion in march of 2021, but they are not pulling back on the punches. they are going after sam bankman-fried himself. there is a lawsuit levied against him, but this is in regard to his assets in robinhood. joanna: i am sure that a lot of these places are going after what they feel they might be able to get. if you're one of these places that has filed for bankruptcy or if you're anywhere who is a liquidator or dealing with this, you will try to find something where you can get it. that is going on at a lot of different places right now. people are trying to figure out where they can have anything that is recoverable for the creditors and for customers. it will be interesting to see where all of this goes in the crypto world as we do have these dominoes falling. manus: there are many progress

here. one of the top creditors to ftx. thank you very much. not go on holiday again. you left us on our own last week. dani went away for thanksgiving, you went away, i was left in the crypto dead zone. dani: manus, i can never promise you that we will never leave again, but we will do our best for next time. manus: [laughter] thank you joanna ossinger was dani burger who took five days off for thanksgiving. coming up, global stocks are on the rise. investors are pushing back on the china protest narrative but we have to weigh the hawkish fed speak. our equity markets ignoring the recession risks? dani: and trying to live with the shame of taking five days off.

we will also be covering the unrest today. we will speak with the former spanish foreign minister. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: let's set the agenda for the markets in terms of what we are watching the rest of the week. for the euro area, we have several nations with their inflation data for november. at 9:30, we will get the mortgage approval numbers, just how bad is it in the u.k. with the property market? dani: after that, we get germany releasing the latest inflation data. then in the u.s., it is a slew of readings including the s&p home price index. later in the afternoon, consumer confidence data will be released. in an hour's time, we are set to

get that policy laying out from china when it comes to covid. let's get to some of our other top stories with your first word news. starting it off with rishi sunak, u.k. prime minister says the so-called golden era of written's relationships with china is over. sunak said beijing cannot simply be ignored especially on issues such as global economic stability or climate change. he said the u.k. will work with allies to manage what he called sharpening competition with china. >> let's be clear. the so-called golden era is over along with a naive idea that trade will automatically lead to social and political reform. nor should we rely on simplistic rhetoric. we recognize china poses a systemic challenge to our values and interests.

a challenge that grows more acute as it moves towards even greater authoritarianism. manus: christine lagarde says she would be surprised if euro area inflation peaked. the ecb president's comments suggest that the central bank's recent ramp up in interest rates are not close to being over. she also warned that growth would continue to weaken into 2023. >> by reducing people's real income and pushing up costs for firms, high inflation is dampening spending and production. high uncertainty tied to financial conditions and weakening global demand are also weighing on economic growth, which is expected to continue weakening for the remainder of this year and the beginning of next year, the first quarter of 2023.

manus: that is your first word news. a little later on, our coverage of the day. we have a meeting in bucharest today, including an interview with spain's former foreign minister. arancha laya joins the team a little later. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger with manus cranny. we are getting some lines from the nestle investment seminar, putting in full-year organic growth at a higher range than what they have seen. 8% to 8.5% is what they are expecting. manus: it is about margin. we know the top line of these consumer businesses is rising,

they have inflation and they have been judicious on not passing on too much inflation, but how will the margins take this on? they're aiming for 17.5% by 2025, but it is about the confirmation going forward as well. dani: it certainly is because this is laying out there 2025. they're also looking for a strategic review of pal for zia, so perhaps some investments underway as well. their growth target seeing that at 6% to 10%, again laying out those long-term goals. manus: i have just opened up the webinar. it will be investors that are performing well, transforming. hag and i's -- haagen dasz is the bane of my life. dani: let's get into these

markets. joining us now is charlotte ryland, cohead of investments at ccla investments. we have got a lot of fed speak over the last 24 hours be it bar kin or others who say they are not going to stop, and perhaps the markets are getting too far. did we get over in buying equities and bonds? charlotte: people got quite excited this year about this being the peak of inflation and it will start rolling over and perhaps we will get rates pulling back. our view is that we see inflation slow into next year whether it will roll out in commodities on the goods prices we have been seeing, but the central banks will be tight in terms of market policy. they will want to be careful about cutting too soon. manus: good morning and good to

have you with us. morgan stanley are frantic this morning, perhaps not frantic, but worried about quantitative tightening. morgan stanley are concerned that qt, the much and talked about elephant in the room, is the real dagger in the risk. would you concur that equities could be crushed by 15% on the moderate qt agenda? charlotte: we have never seen what it does in practice, so it is clear that will be one of the things that is put under the market and three will not have the positive tailwind we had when qe1's the move, but for us the worry is about the state of the economy and how much those numbers will weaken next year and how deep the recession will be if there is a recession in the u.s. dani: if this year was all about rate risk, what is 2023 about? what is the big risk for next

year? charlotte: i think the big risk is going to be economic growth because we have had this very rapid move up in interest rates. that tends to have a lag on the impact for the economy. clearly the cost of living crisis is already with us, particularly for consumers in europe and the u.k. geopolitics, we can continue to say that was a big story for this year, it will be a big story for next year. it depends on how relations with china go and hopefully we will get slightly better. i think it will be the earnings numbers that are the worry. manus: we have had a clear message from lagarde and she does not think we have reached the top of inflation in europe. my guest last time said terminal rate of 4% for ecb rates. what would 4% do for the economy in europe? his view is that it would crush the euro to 90.

we are take -- your take? charlotte: whether we have small precipitous falls, we are not sure. people are clearly worried about the european economy and the growth already. in terms of rate rises, the thing with europe is that you do not have one particular economy, but what might be right for germany and france might not be right for the peripheries. that is something that will hold them back in terms of pushing rates too long. dani: i have got to get to one of your bold calls and i say bold because it is a position that would have crushed you in the middle of the year, but short oil. walk me through your thesis. charlotte: -- done extremely well this year because they have moved off their pandemic close, which the companies are already slashing dividends. into next year we will have

slowing demand because of a slowing economy. i do not think there are any issues particularly with supply. you still have got shale production in the u.s., russia is pumping gas even if it is not moving to the west anymore, so i think you have oil getting to $120. whether it will collapse, it will be the show and tells in the way it has been this year. manus: everybody is writing pieces and helping it is not 1989 tiananmen square in china. charlotte: i suppose the lesson from hong kong is that the chinese government will crush things if they see protests on the streets, so i imagine they will get the situation under control quickly. manus: as you say, a multiple of unknowns with regards to the state of control in china.

thank you very much for your calls on the markets. charlotte ryland, the ccla cohead of investments. coming up, we talk more about the protests in china. the global nature of those and remarkable political unrest. images which many people are trying to make sense of in terms of how far will the authorities go in quashing these protests. dani: certainly and we know there have not been protests overnight but how much of that is just about the police presence. we get more with george magnus shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look.

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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe."

i am manus cranny in dubai with dani burger in london. dani: fed officials including richmond president tom barkin again say they need to hike further to break inflation, even if at a slower pace. >> very supportive of a path that is slower, probably longer, and potentially higher than where we were. dani: stocks and futures climbed, led by a rebound in china nationwide unrest over covid curbs ease amid heavy police presence. the dollar declines. musk rounds on apple. he attacks the iphone makers in a flurry of tweets, risking ties with the top advertiser. when it comes to this morning, it is the lack of protests that is allowing risk assets to move forward. manus: it is hope over reality. if you look at the global market, you have got chinese equities rallying.

how much will they quash these protests? you look at the commodity complex and again, they are talking about allowing billing companies to float equity or to release equity again. this is all built around the hope of a reality. if you look at that, brent is up 6.9%. will they cut going into the opec meeting this weekend? dani: and we have the statement from chinese officials in 30 minutes whether it lays out a roadmap to ending covid zero or not certainly change sentiments this morning. manus: let's talk more about the china protests and the stringent clampdown we have seen because we have a regime of covid and the protests. the protests failed to take place last night after erecting -- erupting in size over the weekend. heavy police presence is in beijing.

the university and the residential district are -- the vehicles and rioting police have taken over the theaters as parts of their operation. officers around virtually every corner. let's get to george magnus, research associate at the university of oxford's china center. it is good to have you with us to look at context around this. many articles have been written, some people saying this is not 1989 tiananmen square. some people say it will be a hong kong reaction mechanism that we have seen the playbook of before, which is aggressive. what is your first take on what the chinese authorities will do to quash these protests? george: the answer is in your question. they will quash it if need be. although as you said in your package that last night was a little quieter, there was police

presence in many cities, arrests have been made, and it is too soon to say that protests will fizzle out like a firework, but if they do resume, and people continue to be as angry as they are about protests around the zero covid policy, i have much doubt that the inkling of the government is to crush it as they do in hong kong. dani: if that is what the inkling of the government might be, what is at stake for them? what is at stake for xi who is just coming off the 20th party congress which he tightly controlled? george: i think this will have come as a shock. if you are control obsessive as xi jinping is an holding leadership of the communist party, you're going to react negatively or will not necessarily react immediately,

but he will certainly have a negative view when it comes to anybody who threatens your control or your position. i think it is interesting because the protests were not all spontaneous, which is what makes them quite special. not only about zero covid but also about politics. everybody knows and has heard and seen video clips of people shouting about democracy and freedom. these things matter if there is some sort of political instability in the country as well. manus: it is interesting you use the word special. in other words, these are unique and across the country. they are direct challenge to xi's covid policies. what are the risks that this escalates? if we turn this back into economics impact and markets and

risk, what do markets need to see that xi is doing to be less concerned about a real -- i do not know what the right word is -- real c change against xi? george: the markets like stability and predictability, and the trouble with spontaneous protests is that it is neither of these two things. there are only three outcomes and all of them are bad for the economy, which is already in a serious state. one is that the protests fizzle out and the covid zero policy continues. second is that the government makes concessions, which they are not going to do. and the third is that they will get crushed and covid zero continues and you have got an unstable political situation in the citizenship. these things, i cannot see any good news, to be honest, from a

financial point. dani: it seems like the financial markets are seeing us move to what you say is two of your three possible scenarios, that the government gives up and makes concessions. as i mentioned before, in 20 minutes' time, we will get announced in 20 comes to covid -- get an announcement when it comes to covid. what are you expecting to hear from chinese officials? george: just a couple of weeks ago, we had the 16 point plan of easing restrictions. but people interpreted it as an easing, but it was really to make zero covid more sustainable. i do not expect any difference now. the main problem is that the government cannot be seen to be giving into threats from the street and from protests. there may come a point that once control has been fairly -- firmly reestablished, when the

government will say that this is how we manage zero covid in the future or in 2023, and here are some things that we will do incrementally which will make the policies more sustainable. this is not just about public health but also about social control. i think it will take a lot, if ever, for the government to completely abandon the policy of zero covid even if it exists in name only. manus: you last spoke about red flags to why xi's china is in jeopardy. what is the savior to xi in this? is it the mrna vaccine? the answer is in the vaccine and it has been in the vaccine for all of us. it allows your economy to open up. you need a more robust mrna vaccine. what is the risk that xi goes for help outside of china on mrna?

george: you are right it is about having good mrna vaccines, effective vaccines, and also about having high vaccination rates for people over 60, which china does not have yet. there is no immediate solution to this. on the basis that they have all of this, there has to be some positive value to probability. there is half a percent chance that xi jinping would take vaccines from overseas. it looks to me -- it feels like it would be a political loss to say that we cannot produce our own. dani: just before we let you go and quickly, rishi sunak in his first foreign policy address talked about china. he said the golden era is over but at the same time said they cannot rely on what he called simplistic cold war rhetoric with china. what do you make of sunak's approach to the country? george: it beats me.

i think he is just trying to sort of lower the temperature in terms of diplomatic relations with china. there is a lot of feeling within the conservative party and the conservative government in the u.k., which is hostile and anti-sympathetic to chinese technology and interference, so i do not expect material change, but maybe they are looking for opportunities where there are non-tech, non-national security type of areas where the brits and the chinese can talk and work with others isn't talking with the chinese over noncontentious issues -- others in talking with the chinese over noncontentious issues. dani: thank you for your time this morning. george magnus, research

associate at the university of oxford's china-centric. coming up, we are live at bucharest with talks underway as ministers discuss more support for ukraine. do not miss the interview with spain's former foreign minister. that is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london with manus in dubai. nato foreign ministers are gathered in bucharest for two days of talks as russia intensifies attacks on ukraine's energy infrastructure. for more, we go to maria tadeo who is in bucharest with our guest. maria. maria: good morning. we are here at the security conference in bucharest and what a year to do this conference. i am pleased to say i am also

joined by our guest. arancha gonzalez laya, she is the former spanish foreign minister. and to me, the obvious question is being here in bucharest, you feel the tension. and geographically close to the war in ukraine. would you say this is the most security us -- most serious security issue since the cold war? arancha: certainly and the sharpest that europe has seen since the cold war. also the war has a particular tone and feel in europe because the battlefront is just kilometers away because weapons are there, because soldiers are there, because the threat of nuclear weapons are there and that is why europe and a place like bucharest here is so clear that this war, the war that

russia is waging against ukraine, has to be front and center of nato's efforts moving forward. maria: and you mentioned the weapons and the hubs. we know that these locations are very close to where we are and we know they are in poland. has this been a wake-up call for europe to say never again take your security for granted? arancha: the situation globally has certainly changed. it is much more power driven, and this is also affecting the european union that in a way had discounted a much more power driven international environment. and now needs to adjust sharply to it. this means perhaps breaking the walls that is in the past were there on security, on the defense accelerating the integration of the european union as it needs to respond as a bloc, which is what europe has

successfully been doing the last month. maria: you alluded to something without is very important, which is the geographical difference and times. when i was watching the news yesterday on romanian tv, it was all about the nuclear weapons. could vladimir putin do that? you feel there is a sense of anxiety that perhaps we do not see in brussels and we do not feel in paris either. is there right now a big divide in terms of the big threat of russian force between the west and east of europe, or are positions still converging? arancha: it is something close to it, and this is something that happens anywhere in the world. we have a way to share the nightmare that the neighbors have failed. and we have to be very clear about this. the eu right now has been a west-east divide. there are nuances in the product

of history, that are the product of many things. are nuances within the west and the east, but there is a unity within the opinion and a clear sense of purpose now. we have one fight, and it is the fight to support ukraine to fight against russia and to make sure that the international borders are respected. this is the fight on which the eu is united to defend ukraine. maria: that leads me to my next question because you have been in government. you know how quickly public opinion can shift with economic context changes. we have seen inflation bite, we have seen social angst with those winter bills that we are about to see. is there some tools that we need right now in europe to make sure that public opinion stays on board? should we be seeing any

different physical response? should we be seeing more support on a european level? arancha: first, we have to be clear with our citizens because they expect clarity especially at this time of military conflict on the border of the eu. we have to be clear that the winter will be tough and difficult, but that we will get through this winter by pooling all of our resources together. this is what europe is doing at both the european level, taking measures in support of all of the eu member states. maria: should there be more on the fiscal side? arancha: when we pool our resources, this is what happened with the pandemic. when we decided to borrow together to invest together, it works better. maybe we have to continue down this path in a responsible manner to face now a major security and defense investment that we will have to make and combining this with national

responses. especially focused on those that need this most, on the poorest households and those for whom this is very existential to. we have got to do the two, support ukraine because their fight is also our fight, and support our citizens to get through the winter by pooling our resources together. maria: and i am going to put you on the spot a little bit. if you go back in time in 2008, if there was an important nato summit that was down here in bucharest, the idea of ukraine joining nato was put on the table, we know how it ended. there was no membership another is a war 10 years later. wasn't a mistake in hindsight perhaps not to accelerate the fast track of nation? arancha: i do not think you can redo the past, and therefore it is no use trying to dissect the past, but certainly you can build the future. this is where we have to put all of our effort. we have clearly told ukraine

that ukraine belongs in the european union. we are working in that direction and we are also deciding in europe to build a political community for those and with those who may not necessarily be wanted as members of the european union. we are redrawing to map of europe in a sharper way, putting all the efforts into building a space for democracy, for protection, for security, and for the defense of all. maria: and russia, this is as isolated as it will get? arancha: this is what russia is doing to itself. maria: as long as putin is the leader, there cannot be a normal relationship? arancha: this is not what europe is doing. this is what russia is doing to itself. it is starting a new colonial war and bringing in the rest of the world that is responding. maria: thank you so much for that some very strong words.

that was arancha gonzalez laya, who is dean at the international affairs school in paris. back to you. manus: great work on the ground with arancha gonzalez laya. my regards to the minister as well. that's get into the breaking headlines on china. we have breaking news on vaccinations. it is difficult to get the vaccination level up in the older population in china, so the breaking news will come. they will step up the vaccination amongst those over 80 in the first instance. dani: this is a statement from the national health commission. just a part context to this, close to 90% of chinese over 60 are vaccinated, but under 70% of that age group have that third dose. if you put it over 80, it falls

to 40%. that is at stake here. manus: that is what is at stake in terms of that. we just had a conversation with george magnus and i said to him, what they go for an mrna outside of china? he said no, that would be a huge self-inflicted wound. also allowing the elderly to take a booster three months after the vaccine, so again, this is ultimately about stepping up the reaction function. everything is to do with the vaccination rate. what we are showing you here is the daily covid cases which have exploded over the past number of days. to open up could be a very dislocated process according to goldman sachs. and bloomberg has modeled the number of covid cases in terms of seeing a huge spike if they

see dani: dani: a full reopening. and if they go forth for reopening, they will need to get the vaccination rate up. the market has rallied hoping that in that statement and announcement we will get in seven minutes' time that perhaps there will be a roadmap to lessening some of the zero covid curbs. manus: nobody is talking about a reopening for china, just for context around that, a roadmap to boosters and vaccines. coming up, we will have a roadmap to vienna. opec is setting the agenda. what can we expect as we head into the opec+ meeting this weekend? this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: oil is bouncing this morning, brent is at -- and we believe opec+ will have a cut

do. >> it is clear we will either get a cut or opec staying steady. it is unlikely it will reverse course from the last meeting in october and raise production. if it is a cut, the big question is how big. it could go smaller, go for 250,000 barrels a day. some people, according to bloomberg's survey of world traders, thinking it goes big at 2 million barrels a day, the same as in october, which is a sharp turn to the market. if it goes for another 2 million barrels a day, that will help push up prices. dani: the other big story, and i am sorry you have about 30 seconds for this, are the eu talks over a price cap, are they dead? good luck, paul. paul: not yet. i think that you will want some kind of price cap because if this all falls apart and there is no price cap as -- cap at

all, that is bullish for oil. providing any services for those carrying russian goods, so they will want something in place. dani: short and distinct. paul wallace there. we continue to monitor lines coming out of china, the latest announcement aiming to speed up vaccination of people aged over 80. manus: they want to open up this economy and any kind of stagnant approach, it is about vaccinating the old and elderly, those that are more susceptible. the seniors are first on the notice board for boosters and vaccines. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe."