>> there is an extremely elevated chance of recession. >> you have to pray that the liber market quite down. it is gradual. you have to watch what is happening in response to what they've already done so far. >> for the next market, that is when the fed cuts interest rates. >> we have more confidence the rally will continue into december. ask this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.

>> it is payroll friday. 90 mins away, live from new york city. this is bloomberg surveillance. good morning. tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. the number we are looking for today, 200 k. >> were having a light friday about it, but it is serious because as we turn -- heard, the date is getting knology. there is tension in this. i'm sorry. i am in the cpi. there's a couple of days here that are more important, but nevertheless, tension is there this morning. >> what have we had so far? was it -- impressive? look at the isn. >> jolts. >> not great. you wonder if this starts to show up in the data later. >> also points to a political pressure print we haven't seen the end appointment rate rise. we've seen softening from the highest levels, now people are saying the fed needs to stop. they are going to crash the economy. there is a shift in tone that really highlights the conundrum for the fed. >> i asked if you aggregate this

morning, or if this is about differing parts of america, louisiana's two or three or four. i'm not aggregating. i think there are some people who are in real pain. >> the move has started in the bond market. the 10 year and now the two-year. the last time we had payroll, that was 20 mins after the number came up, we are pushing for 80 on the two-year. we are not at 420. that is after chairman powell. >> you follow this more than i do. is anyone out there framing a330 or 32010 year yield. >> i would say no one. are there people moderating -- modeling the recession rates moving forward? >> brian of morgan stanley. he expects it to go down. with the first quarter of next year. >> you do know is talking about. >> you missed the conversation earlier. >> at least, she is brutal sometimes. get up to speed on the future. >> we have a living room for the tree. >> do i go to therapy?

wax with everyone -- just you understand, in the bloomberg family, no one tops scarlet fu. when it comes to the tree. she is north. not to alpine he, but she is north somewhere, and the ceiling is like 30 feet tall. it wouldn't fit in the white house. she's passed 15 feet. >> 20 feet. they have a crane and everything. >> equity futures look like this. going into payrolls, 830 eastern time, and the moving target with the number, but the median estimate is 200 thousand. equity futures are down. we are down on the session and up on the week. with the equity market yield, upon the session, down on the week on a two year. i keep going back to this. down on the week by more than 20 basis points after chairman powell. we disembark from -80 and all of that to -75, and 69 on the spread. less inversion than what we saw

in the gloom of the week or so ago, and the real yield, are you doing that? no. brazil is playing. >> i'm watching football. >> the yield is a stunning 1.4 percent. can you imagine the 10 year yield under a positive 1%. >> they are backing away. it is versus the 10 year. basis points on the morning. >> is it bad enough to really give people a sense that this is warranted? we get the labor market report for the month of november, but how much do we get a sense of the average rages coming down rapidly. how much is enough to really give people in a transitory crew, which is not gone away, to be clear, some steam. that is what i am going to be watching. very curious to hear this conversation. you will be speaking with the labor secretary, talking a lot about the real straight, and we talk about the support of unions from the administration. plus, a mandate from the congress that they get on with it. they pass a bill that the would not ratify. a real tension under pinning

what you will do, and we will talk about that. the last that speak before the quiet. thomas parkin, and the fed president, the last addresses before he retires in january. taking over for austan goolsbee of the university of chicago, who has a bit more of a hawkish tone. it is interesting if you look at some of his proclamations and readings ahead of time. it will be an interesting voice on the federal reserve. >> sometimes it can change you when you get in there, and you sit around the table. >> i strongly agree that you become a publicly visible officer. >> and my change in. >> will talk about him. >> we're joined right now the global head of rate strategy at securities, and as we like to say, the queen of the race. >> killed it. >> the trades have come off. you went over the 10 year. he took the trade off of it at

370. you put the flat on there, looking for deep inversions, -40, 50, 60. we went further. what is left. >> i'm very nimble in terms of trades. i have a direction of lower rates. we've come so far so quickly, and i think the markets have this interpreted the federal little bit. i think the recession is our base case. it will mean more cuts will happen in 24, and the 10 year forecast for the tenure the end of next year is three and a quarter, but we move fast, so you have to be nimble in this market. that is not very liquid. that is volatile. i think you have to trade in a nimble fashion, and i would look

to go along again. we sell off a little bit, we realize the fed is forced to keep hiking. we think the terminal rate will be higher than where the markets are pricing it right now, but the trading is in a nimble fashion. it is timing versus direction, but the direction is still lower rates, and unfortunately, fed will be forced to keep hiking because inflation will be really sticky. >> with surveillance, we always listen to our guests and get it wrong and get it right. the hardest thing is to get it right two years in a row. i think will be joined later from morgan stanley, wells fargo, foreign-exchange, now you. the call you will make for next year, are you getting the suddenness of it as we got with inversion? is a stochastic or pointy where we december? >> i think that is a key question. i will point do you put on steepness. do start adding on the fed rate cuts? that is a question i keep getting from clients. i think not yet. it comes down to inflation. it will decline, that's our base case. how will decline, and doesn't get sticky at 3% or three and a half percent, and i don't think the fed can start to ease if inflation is at 3.5. i think you stick with that

trade. the inversion will last much longer than we are used to, and the economy will slow down. we will all look at the fed to ease, and i think they will stand back as they are telling us. they want to be restrictive for a while, so i think this is much later in the year where inflation has sufficiently come down somewhere peter for the fed can start to cut, so you have to trade for its defense, he put on the flatness, as opposed to really talking about this inversion. i think it advises the fed to ease, and it is tight. that's what they're looking for today, but i think that is more important than the headline. that is what is going to drive or service the inflation lower, if we start to come off of it, and it is still too early for to come off and >> as we are talking about a popular belief are many people, do you think the yield and rally we have seen across treasury this month has been a bit overdone? >> i think this be rate struggles a bit.

we thought it would be more cut in the price, with a hundred basis point cut, but in a short. of time, the market is pricing a recession. i think that is right. you expected that to happen with much weaker data. it is happening faster, and it is now stabilizing here, but what i struggle with is the easing of these conditions, or the idea that the fed can stop on the terminal rate. if inflation is going to be sticky, the fed will height -- hike another 50, and then they continue to hike at a slower pace. it is the endpoint of the hiking cycle. i think the markets are a little optimistic, and i think chair powell didn't push back against the financial conditions. i think the market took relief in that, so the front end rates are rising. it pulls the tenure higher, and it took off the law, but longer term, i think the recession is baked in the cake. >> i want to dig into that.

if you believe the recession is baked into the cake, you think that maybe we are still underestimating how far this can go, let's use the morning as a case study. there's an upside surprise on payrolls. we all understand were the two years going to go, with yield is higher. why do you think that you push that out of the curve towards the 10 yield and not think the fed is going harder and we will get the recession we are expecting with yield slower. what makes you think you've pushed yields higher through the curve with yields up on the back of a payroll surprise? >> i think if you get a strong number, you get strong wages. is going to imply that the fed has to hike more. i think people look at how much they can cut if inflation is higher wages are high. that is going to constrain the fed's ability to ease, and now we are pricing 200 basis points of cuts between mid 23, 20 five. i think that is going to force people to struggle with more cuts. if inflation is high, the fed is

going to be constrained in terms of how much they can cut, and that is for inversion staying constant, and if the front and sells off, the tenure also sells off, and it's only when inflation starts to come off, and you start to see the cpr were more cuts are priced in because people realize the fed has a dual mandate. they're elevating inflation right now. but if growth weakens and inflation is high, there will be a real tough bind, and they cannot contest much. there is easing at a hundred. there earning the table saying it starts to look a little tough for them to keep easing. >> stop -- thought. . congratulations on a phenomenal through 22. going into payrolls. one hour 20 ms. way. >> along the way, this is something the financial media really gets wrong. we want to look at a single point estimate and say you've been successful or you fail. is how you amend along the way,

but she had an aggressive call, and amended it be to flee. >> trades are off. coming up later in d.c., with i'm his time, you know who is not? a day off. >> after the break, it is a really terse comment. it is resting comfortably. >> they did it on purpose. >> within email from a moment ago, there was a long planned day off today. >> from maria. a full debrief from pharaoh yesterday on that. first have good second half that, but strategically better for spain. no brazil or argentina. >> she asked for debrief. lisa wants a debrief. >> enjoy your day off. >> no rate today. >> coming up from washington, this is bloomberg. >> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. the first word with lisa mateo. the pentagon is considering a major expansion in training or the ukrainian armed forces. going to the washington post, the plan has been discussed for

weeks i lloyd austin, and another top the tray official. it could lead to thousands of troops to be trained by u.s. forces at a base in germany. traders are awaiting the u.s. jobs report to see if it provides any clues on the federal reserve's next move. the job market is starting to cool off, but the report may fall short of the turning point that fed officials are seeking to beat back inflation. the median estimate says the economy created 200,000 jobs in november. shares of credits have rebounded from record lows. axel lehman told bloomberg the bank has mostly stemmed client assets. it surged to about 90 billion earlier this quarter. >> it is doubtful that it has stopped. but we have seen two or three weeks in october. since then, flattening out. they have stopped gradually coming back out and switch one. >> credit suite is pitching investors on a capital raise that it needs to finance a major overhaul.

global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg.

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>> inflation is being caused by

unbelievable wasteful spending. we have to start saying to ourselves, we are at $31 trillion in debt. when do we stop. is 42 much or 45? we have to be a brick wall to this government spending at some point. >> that is rick scott of florida. he is the republican senator, and that is the story that you see in washington there is a different story that is not the joy of a state dinner that we saw, but it is still a growing tension between the president of the united states and mr. putin. in a war in ukraine. >> it is interesting that the president is open to talks, we hear from prudent. >> the spokesperson said putin was and remains open for contacts for negotiations. of course, the best way to achieve our interest is through peaceful diplomatic means. that is not the first time we print this talk, but it aligns with what we heard yesterday. i thing we'd all like to hear more of it. >> we need an update, and we do

that with someone who is out of vladivostok, whatever it is and what -- russia. we are joined now with a prudent experience. we have not talked about this for ages. >> the parties. my map fail. i played risk. that's feeling reason i note the map. long ago, we had power. has the power changed over the last 90 days? >> i think incredibly, his power has diminished on the stage for sure. you can see the likes of xi jinping of china. i think the statements coming out of the g20 come with joe biden, obviously, you see the chinese anymore signals that they are uncomfortable, clearly unhappy with what president putin is doing, but internally, it remains to be seen. he is able to have control of russia. but what you do see internally from russia and even witness, is

a mass exodus. it is a brain drain of numbers of people who are highly educated, and also young working men. they do not want to go fight this war. this is something that is going to inflict a lot of pain on the economy over the next six to 12 months. >> mystically, with magellan from florida, or the government in florida, and the battle and the republican party, or mr. biden's democrats, do they support the president in visiting with boudin or speaking to them? >> it remains to be seen. we don't exactly know what their feelings are in that specific comment, but i think the president caged it well. i have no imminent plans to speak with president putin. he only would it putin was serious about ending this war, and i think you be hard-pressed to find someone in washington who doesn't want invasion of ukraine to end. >> does indicate a greater

frustration with the tracking on conflict, and a greater desire to get to some sort of and, and perhaps move away from some of the arm supply and other rhetoric that has seemed to amp up recent months? >> also, you have mr. mccarthy who is going to be the next speaker, talking about the fact that there is not a blank check going to ukraine. they went -- want more oversight. that is honestly kind of weird because they wanted -- walked it back after they sent the letter. there is what the president said yesterday. another way to look at this. he was standing next to emmanuel macron, who is speaking to president putin. it is on the heels of a call between all of -- the chancellor of germany and president putin. they discussed a number of things. they aired grievances of weapons and training ukrainians, but also, they discussed the critical grain deal that the

world is relying on, especially with the most vulnerable economies, as well as fertilizer coming out of russia, so the president was in this moment where his allies that he is trying to keep together as a united front are engaged with boudin. that is where he made this comment. >> i'm glad you brought that up. i want to go to the oil shipments as well. i was confused by that. opec which slashing oil output. the mosys 2020. it would be a really bullish thing for oil prices to reduce some of the supplies. but prices are up because russia output and the amount that is coming back online next year could offset that. could you explain this? is the world getting back and engage with russia and a stealth way? >> russia is sending the lifeblood of prunes economy to keep it working. he is still sending out natural gas and oil. what the west is doing is also creating a space for him to do that. there was a sanction package

from europe that basically said russia will not be able to ship crude oil because it is going to sanction those companies that are largely european. malta cypriots, greece. that is where they come from. now, they are working on oil prices, and it will come into play on monday. the likely threshold we are hearing is $60 a barrel. right now, euros are trading, and that is not the only grade russia has, but they are fending for higher numbers, but right now, they are trading at $52 a barrel. that means that boudin is still going to be able to ship's cargo within this limit and still make the money he needs to make. >> i do not understand this price cap. >> thank you. >> i'm trying to have it explained to me five different times. >> i cannot even read about it. when i read about in eyes glaze over. >> do you get it? >> it has to do with ensuring the barrels. the key mechanism to get ships to actually be able to transport

this oil and be able to do it without getting sanction. they're trying to come up with a mechanism to do that. >> they take oil to the country, and they call it country x oil. >> that is what is happening. >> that's what we see all your. >> the irony is -- this is the irony. prices have gone up because people think the market barrels have gone off. have been refined and sent to germany. this is sort of an irony in the whole situation. >> it is bizarre. down in d.c., always fantastic. thank you. the focus is on washington later. how the federal reserve will respond to these numbers. in the next couple of weeks, payrolls coming in and in and our five mins from now. the estimate is 200,000. in a moment, we will see payroll and rages -- wages. the upfront's right now with the wage figure. >> i agree totally on that. is about wages. there are some interesting research notes this morning.

we go the other way with the whisper number, and they say what will we do if it is too tender 220 or 230? how will they react? it is a very smart question. here the wages, and what does that mean for the federal reserve around the table in the middle of december? we have a lot to go through before we get to the end of the year. payroll is out in an hour in five minutes, and you have the cpi report for december 13. then the federal reserve on december 14, and i will throw vcp as well. december 15. take the rest of the year off. >> will have to see that. it doesn't really matter? not for me. i believe after the 14th. futures are down. from new york city this morning, good morning. his payroll friday. i'm bloomberg surveillance.

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jonathan: payroll is 60 minutes away. coming in to then equity market. slightly negative through most of this morning.

-0.0 4%. down on the day, up on the week. bob market, unchanged on the day but down on the week. much more so on the two-year. tom: let's say we get the whisper number. if we are not 200, we are 170, 150. what in the market will unravel? to me, it's fascinating. jonathan: i'll endorse what we've seen this week already. chairman powell on wednesday. lisa: it depends on the wages as well. people will be looking the need that number. tom: i looked at the inflation

adjustment wages. all i can say is, the level and duration of the negative real wage is dog topping for so many americans. lisa: there's a question about what the hiring will be. marvell technology is a ship maker and put out negative earnings, you can see the shares going down more than 5% ahead of the open. open door, they lost another member of the executive team and they are struggling as well. though shares lower, 1.81. in blackstone, on one of pick up on what you are talking about. the story overnight of withdraws from their real estate investment fund. they seem to exceed the quarterly limit so they

restricted some of the up flows. which suggests the souring segment around commercial real estate and how quickly the money is moving. commercial real estate, it's a seven-year role. when commercial real estate booms, it booms. or if it falls apart, it's gone. jonathan: they say it's not about the performance of the fund. tom: or make a 9% to our customers, this is not a credit suisse type of deal. the beast of commercial real estate in the challenges over the past 40-50 years.

residential real estate nationwide, are they buying up kansas city so you can't get a home versus commercial real estate which is more than a seven-year duration. lisa: this speaks to a liquidity problem. if big investors are getting worried, and they can't withdraw from funds that are protected against having fire sales, how much does that create greater aversion from going into these funds that help prop up their valuations? tom: michael mckee joins r bloomberg economics policy expert. what's a distinctive feature, what matters? michael: i think lisa gets the prize today. jay powell came out and divided

inflation into three categories. one was rent, one was goods and another services. rent prices are coming down but the fed knows what is happening there. goods prices have backed up but services prices are contributing to inflation because they can't find workers so they are bringing up wages. if that's are so slow, then the fed will be happy. i don't think it will change much as far as the december 14 meeting, but a move in the right direction would be helpful. lisa: are we done with the federal reserve pushing back against conditions easing? mike: i looked at a bunch of charts this morning and financial condition start easing at the same time stockmarkets went up and bond yields went down. the day that we got the september cpi report which was stronger than necessary. he would've set on that day it's

a recession scenario. then we got the october report which everyone said was a soft landing but it didn't change the trajectory of the markets and it did not change the financial conditions index. financial conditions are pretty tight and we can't job and we can't job in these people anymore. tom: jp morgan has been brilliant about saying the gloom of labor is off the mark. he reaffirmed that yesterday with paul sweeney. what does small business say across the nation? mike: they're in the small position. they have scaled back their hiring plans but there's a big plurality that says they can't find people to take jobs. that's a problem for victim little companies. there are more than 10 million job openings in about 6 million hires according to the jobs report. that's 4 million jobs going begging somewhere. there are skills mismatches.

but as powell suggested, they are coming to the idea that participation will not matter because he doesn't believe people are coming back. excessive retirements, mortality from covid in the markets will be weaker. the people who want jobs are not enough to fill the jobs out there. jonathan: michael mckee, we will catch up with you later. morgan stanley and adam schwartz on this. annual increases take time and paychecks. hours are set week by week. if you have difficulty hiring, do you fire first or reduce hours? tom: drew matus was on the team

trying to figure the game out. we are thrilled to bring out ellen zentner i want to talk about your measurement of the american consumer. how is the american consumer? do we see a boon with the american consumer? ellen: the state of the consumer is better at this point in the cycle. mostly because of balance sheets and job gauges. it's not people across distribution. lower income households earlier this year had moved through the excess savings they had. that was helping them deal with higher inflation. wage gains continue to be strong. as long as we are creating jobs, the wealthier households are spending you will see aggregate

consumption remain pretty resilient. lisa: there's a big disconnect between people heralding the end of peak inflation and people seeing the resilience. there is a mismatch and how jay powell listing this as well. ellen: we have shut the door on transitory and future chairs will probably be less apt to use that term. it has shown a lot of confidence of late, this is a surprise this week when he spoke at brookings on how confident he was that inflation will come down. that was a big shift for him. lisa: what we have to see today in the labor market and heading into next year to confirm your call that the fed could start cutting rates as soon as december of next year even as they say they will not do it? ellen: we will have to see

continued softening. it's a great day for economists because we love dismal data. tom: why are you looking at me at this moment? ellen: lisa gives me optimism. jonathan: if someone says lisa gives you optimism. ellen: we want softer jobs, softer inflation on the month-to-month basis. tom: you turn on a dying. in february, you are transitory and you came out and said boom. what could be your new transitory where you say boom, i'm wrong. wesley attribute within the morgan stanley team? ellen: when we came with our year ahead outlooks we thought inventory building would be huge

this year and that would create a lot of downward pressure and it didn't come through. we admitted that earlier in the year. we moved away from that call which is important to do. it could just be timing because we are seeing inventory sales ratios are not that out of whack. there doesn't need to be a lot of inventory building outside a lot of sectors. when you get that broad inventory building of overbuilding we will miss to the downside on inflation next year. tom: i look at this, the word i used is james gorman saying make another good call ellen. what's the mystery for u.s. you make in outlook? the silliness that we go through. jonathan: i just think it takes three months to figure out. lisa: is that because the first

quarter is uncertain? tom: steve galbraith invented this. what are you screaming about? what is the distinction you are arguing about? ellen: the distinction to us is that the fed does not need to hike until they get down to 2%. they do need to hold rates steady, high for a time. we were pushing before policymakers jumped on board. it's something that investors are trying to grasp. they haven't fully grasped. there was reason for a lot of optimism after cavil spoke at brookings.

real rates are going to continue to rise. they will rise throughout next year. basic one-to-one 01 on equities is that equities like higher real rates and that has not been realized yet. jonathan: where lucky, ellen will stay with us for another segment. tom: she just said that real rates are going to go through the roof. jonathan: and then things get back to first quarter. tom: with mike wilson? you're trying to cause trouble that morgan stanley. i will go take a break and you can talk at the desk the way it is. lisa: march 15. tom: i'll sit in the timeout chair. jonathan: it'll be next hour when you get the jobs report. we will hear from jeff rosenberg. we are looking forward to that.

in the 9:00 hour we have rick read from blackrock. we will speak to secretary walsh. quite a lineup. tom: have you ever owned the four royal a monopoly? jonathan: i used to aim for park lane. tom: and boardwalk? ♪

jonathan: payroll is 42 minutes away. equity futures are slightly negative. a big focus on things like wages for chairman powell. tom: to be clear, do we know where mr. powell's terminal rate is in his head? jonathan: we expect him to step

up to something in the five handle for next year. tom: wonderful guest coming up, jeffrey rosenberg will be with us. governor crosson are in austan goolsbee as well as the jobs report. the terminal recall of the year was a bloomberg, anna wong was out front with the stunning call. i left her out of the room. yes, i was wrong. do you reaffirm the territory of 5% as the terminal rate? anna: our call has remained unchanged. we stay at 5%, with the upper end of 5% at the terminal rate. lisa: do you think the market has gotten ahead of the deceleration inflation? anna: i was going back and looking at forecast in the 70's and one of the interesting things i noticed is that when

inflation was climbing, the fed and the markets were underestimating inflation and when inflation does come down, the fed in the market underestimate the rate of deceleration of inflation. given all the disinflationary forces we see in the world like china and inventory de-stalking i think the case for a strong pace of disinflation next year as possible. tom: i have to rip up the script. one more question, the micro economist austan goolsbee is going to prosecute monetary policy out of chicago. how will he do? a modest uproar and economics. anna: from the things that i have heard goolsby talk about he does perceive that supply

factors played a key role in monetary policy. i think he is going to bring the debate onto the table and challenge powell on the view that the fed needs to do a lot on the demand side to bring inflation down. there will be a debate next year and growing divisions in the fomc. tom: it's going to be like the british. jonathan: anna wong, thank you. ellen do you think that break down on the committee is breaking down? is it getting harder for the chairman to go out there and communicated consensus that might not exist? ellen: i think there is a strong consensus on the fed. i think we tend to hear from the lattice people who are not in the center and we have to be vigilant in paying attention to what powell and the center is saying and they have been clear that it has been a consistence

of 4.5%, 5% rate. they are going to have to hold it there for some extended. of time. that is a pretty strong view on the fed. it has given a lot of near-term certainty on monetary policy that wasn't there. if you ever wanted the connor factual, look at what equities did on wednesday when chairman powell spoke. jonathan: we like to throw around the word pivot. can you watch it -- walk it through what this means? ellen: the first pivot is when they step down the pace? they are communicating they will step down the pace so that communication has happened and we have seen the reaction in anticipation to that pivot. the next pivot is when do they stop hiking? we think they stop at 4.75 in

january depending on the data. they could stretch out longer than that. you could even get 5.25. when do they stop hiking? the third pivot is when do they start cutting? we have not gotten communication on whether they stop hiking. they know the peak rate but that will be the next pivot. lisa: how have we moved so quickly from 5, 5 .25 to what you are looking for, a 4.6 rate? ellen: we have been resolute that they would get to january and a 4.75 peak rate. that's the top end of the range. we have seen the market make wild swings around that number. if you rounded up to 4.8, 4.85,

as each data point cavemen they got defined at .25%. since then, there has been a consolidation and view of what the fed will do and much more clear on what they will do. for the near term, the volatility around where the peak will be has been diminished quite a bit. tom: you mention one pivot, let's go to the triple pivot. that is the writing to howard pozen, when we come down it is more efficacious to stop a 3% because of the word salience. are we going out to where there is a new level, a new 2%? ellen: this is an interesting

debate, we have our first cut coming in december 2023. that is when in our forecast, inflation breaks below 3%. i like to point back to opportunistic disinflation. a wilcox paper in 95, 96 that the fed does not hike again until they get to 2%. said it on a downward trend, all the elements are in place in the downturn can do the rest of the work for you. you need cushion there and a cushion of one percentage point is appropriate. jonathan: what's the number for you? ellen: 180. i'm happy if we are lower than the prior month. let's keep the softening

continue. tom: there are a lot of dynamics there. i have you trouble getting on with the certitude of getting through 2023. i can't get out to the end of january. jonathan: the step down from 75 to 50 and then they have the cuts set in 24. tom: the whole pivot think is v-shaped. lisa: thank you ellen. tom: thank you for the physics lesson. jonathan: payroll is 35 minutes away. new york city to our audience worldwide. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

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>> do i believe inflation is off