dani: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm dani burger in london, alongside manus cranny in dubai, with the stories that set your agenda. manus: pressing the pivot.

asian stocks and commodity currencies rise as china accelerates easing of covid curbs across cities, including shanghai. oil gains as optimism on china's reopening quickens, and opec+ keeps production steady. sanctions on russian oil kick in today. the wall street journal reports, saudi arabia's crown prince mohammed bill bin salman is preparing to take a state in cfb, the investment bank. larry summers, i love what he says, we will face a wiley coyote moment and all try to sell our houses and grab some credit. that is the wiley coyote moment when rates rise and we convulse. we are not there yet. dani: perhaps you have a house to sell, so maybe larry summers has heard a word from you. it is this question whether we are there or not yet.

the debate got complicated with friday job numbers that showed strength. we heard from equity analyst after analyst, bank of america the latest saying we will rally into year end but equities have further to fall on this narrative. manus: i have one more tank left in with these markets, otherwise you will see me until i am 90. the fed will keep going until the market corrects, and it is not correct, wages are growing and shops are plentiful. dani: manus's retirement still on track for now. let me take you to these markets. it is this narrative of strength from china, that perhaps we will now be living with this covid shift. hang seng, a really strong rally, up 3.6% extending somewhat into the euro stoxx 50

futures trade, that is up just 0.08%. s&p futures climbing just .1%. we ended little changed so far again this morning, there is little appetite to short this equity market into year-end. manus: i will raise you on the fact of the day, that eighth straight week in the rope, -- in a row, we have not seen that since 1996. the dollar is in theory risk on because of china reopening, giving back 50% of its rally so far this year. 10-year paper continues to rise. perhaps we are getting over our skis, we will hear from larry summers shortly. there is a long way to go to get inflation down. the aussie is the high beta

trade in relation to china's reopening, and likewise opec holds production steady but again, the market focus is very clearly on the commodity reopening and the pivot in china. but it will be jagged, according to bi> . let's get more on that story with reporters from around the world. we will talk about china's covid pivot, and that market reaction you were just talking about, and opec+ holding output steady. manus: we got easing covid requirements across major cities. beijing appears to be shifting away from strict covid zero. he is living in shanghai and can give some context, how real are the step exxon testing, what are you seeing in shanghai? >> protests have died down but the government keeps on announcing loosening of covid curbs.

the largest thing is these curves are ones that affect people's daily lives. the authorities are ending pcr tests that were mandatory to enter public transport, outdoor public venues. cities like wuhan have followed along as well. you have seen other cities, residents are told not to bother with covid tests unless they are at risk of exposure. but unfortunately, the downside to always rapid unwinding of restrictions is a lot of covid testing booths are being shut down, that is leading to long queues in cities like beijing. and you still need a pcr tests, for example, if i am told i need a covid test within the previous 24 hours to enter a facility.

dani: it is certainly not as straightforward as it would seem. bloomberg's allen wan in shanghai. with the hope that china is shifting its tone to living with covid, the offshore yuan went through the closely watch seven dollars level. let's bring in sofia with more on the market reaction. allen was telling us, it is not simple what china is doing, but the market reaction seems to be very positive. >> exactly. it might not be simple on the ground. the reopening might be jagged, or bumpy as morgan stanley analysts are saying, but the market is trading on the direction of policy. the direction is clearly towards reopening. dani, this is the biggest macro trade going into next year, i would suggest it is bigger than

the fed. it is a bigger story. you are saying that play out in markets. you are seeing a very strong session in asia. there was a little risk of going into the weekend. this time a week ago, there were anti-covid protests. instead we got more news out of shanghai, that's the big financial center. it's also where we saw the two month lockdown, one of the strictest cities when it comes to government controls, rolling back some of the strictest measures. that's really showing the direction of policy. also, the fact that the offshore equities basis seeing the biggest rally suggests we are getting inflows that fled chinese equities in the past two years. that's coming back, and it is a hard rally to stop once it does start. manus: and if you look at goldman-s, they are talking about the scale of this managed exit. there are that against the yuan, where they want to be

accommodative, so it is push and pull on the fx story. the very latest on that yuan and the reopening. let's talk about how that has manifest in the rest of the markets. oil is jumping building on last week's gains. joining us now is our oil traded reporter in singapore. so here we are, we were expecting no change from opec+. the language they used was one of validation one could say, but a preparedness to active new moment that act at any moment. >> at the latest virtual meeting, opec+ agreed to keep output steady. but when they were going to first convened this meeting, the market expected them to cut output because of china demand. but somewhere along the line, they decided to convert this to

a virtual meeting. they decided to keep output steady because of the huge amount of uncertainty on the market. we have had week china demand pulling prices down, but indications that china is tweaking its covid policies, now pulling futures higher again. and add to that, the eu and g7's price cap on russian crude sales, we are getting a on certain picture on oil markets. dani: so you have the eu agreeing on a $60 price cap for russian oil. what has been russia's response? >> russia has said they will not sell oil to any player who abides by the $60 price cap. one degree of complication is,

one of russia's key oil grades is trading below the price cap. if you are transacting a cargo of urals under the level, is it because of weakness or you are trying to abide by the price cap. dani: thank you so much for joining us this morning, bloomberg's oil traded reporter in singapore. let's go look at some key things we will be watching out for this week. today, data from the u.s. that will include factory orders, durable good orders and ism services index. tomorrow, is the rba, we will have the latest policy decision from australia. manus: wednesday, rate decisions from the central banks of brazil, canada and india are on the slate. thursday initial jobless claims,

and friday, the producer price report for november. it will be one of the final pieces of data the fed has in their hands as they go into next week's policy meeting. also, michigan consumer sentiment. volatility, a bundle that is quite repressed. the fed pivot is overdone, that is the view from analysts at bank of america, we discuss the bear market rally. on bloomberg. ♪

>> the labor market is strong.

and we're still in unprecedented territory, in terms of the gap between vacancies and jobs. what that's got to tell you is we have a long way to go to get inflation down where the fed has said it wants it to be. dani: former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers speaking after friday's jobs data that showed wages surging the most i am nearly a year in november. joining us now is tatjana greil castro, portfolio manager and cohead of public markets at muzinich & co., it feels like this friday jobs number bolsters the case of the fed. yet yields continue to fall on friday, what do you make of it? tatjana: it is this tug-of-war

between the economy and what will break first. that is where the market is position, and it is ever so hard. it's interesting, 2022 was hard enough, and we may get a reprice in 2023. the story continues, and valuations clearly are very different, that's the big difference from a year ago when we were still at zero and negative rates. it will feel more painful next year, especially in fixed income, but yeah, is not very clear. manus: ah, you see? two sides of the train. larry summers says we will have a wiley coyote moment, we will rush to sell our homes, rasping for credit we can't get in there will be this moment where the

pain really kicks in. you are not a buyer, are you? tatjana: i have heard a few times from strategists and economists. it seems to be the first time economists are widely forecasting a strong recession. and they are telling us it is so hard to put anto recession. it is only hard depending on the assumptions. that's what i think it is, you see where the assumptions are going. it's that really that drives all this narrative. we can't forget that we have to think of the assumptions. as a market participant, i'm thinking strategists and the economists have already set a very negative seen, and -- nega tive scene, and it is largely

reflected in the market. but there is this alternative reality that it is a rare recession that some economists are forecasting. dani: i love it. back down the doomsayers, it is not all that out there but i wonder at what level -- manus: you go face-to-face with larry summers at the podium, and i will watch your reaction function, i did it last week. that's larry's opinion. there is no room to talk. tatjana: you can be very articulate. very highly regarded, and very knowledgeable, i think he makes great contributions -- dani: this is what makes the market. you have two different bets. but at some point, do rates go high enough that we coalesce around the same narrative?

this is a screen we were shortening of a survey we did to mliv readers saying, at what interest rate do we see a pick up in this default cycle? it is fair to say, we haven't totally seen a default cycle. the majority of respondents say rates need to go above 5% to actually see a vicious default cycle. is that how extreme things need to get before you join the choir of doomsayers? tatjana: what you see is about 5%, and you need to but credit spreads on top of it. the way to look at it is first of all, how long have companies funded themselves? when do they actually roll over their exposure, and how far are they hedged? clearly, fixed income, it is in

the name. it means you lock in your rate for a certain period of time. that's the first thing. the next thing is, how do your earnings look? leveraging your affordability also depends on how much you generated to pay for your liabilities. it is not just rates. rates can be painful. it is also, what is your liquidity, so you can service your debt. and liquidity depends very much on how severe the recession is that is being forecasted for next year. it is complicated. and the last point, which again, something we have been talking about all year, is inflation. inflation clearly also means that nominally, your revenues and because your costs are going up and earnings, so they should actually deliver. so, next year it could be the end of next year, but probably

more '24 that this worry about the funding structure is kicking in. manus: what is the biggest tail risk going into 2024? china is reopening, they rolled over at opec, people have said $100 oil is on the slate, is that a material tail risk to investment for 2023 if we break $100 on oil? tatjana: i can see that when you look at the underinvestment in fossil fuel. the last few years there has been a move oh away from fossil fuels into renewable energy and other sources. so there is tightness in the market. to the extent the supply is not as flexible as people may think.

and to the extent that demand may be growing, earlier you pointed out the reopening of china and what it means for mobility and the economic environment. then there is easily a way for oil to go higher. dani: if that happens, can we really be talking at a cut or p ause in fed rates by mid next year? tatjana: we are in the camp that inflation could be far more sticky than the market is anticipating. i am surprised to the extent that the fed has not pushed back harder when powell last spoke against the market. the market clearly has rallied

way too high. if you look at all the long-term drivers in terms of demographics, climate change, adoption to climate change. the food security that is also being challenged, not just oil energy security. so all those things are feeding into stickier inflation for longer, we believe. it could beat a bit of a reversal. at the same time, it is so hard. we are lashing on from one economic data to the other. the economic data on friday was towards maybe inflation is therefore longer. but then we will have to see what the ppi and cpi is going to bring. manus: unfortunately, that is what happens when you get a whole herd of bond bulls trying

to go through one gate at one time, it is called myopia. tatjana greil castro raising the red flags. cohead of public markets at muzinich & co. saudi arabia's crown prince is reportedly preparing to invest in the brand name that is coming back to you, credit suisse. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe". let's get some of our top stories, with the first word news is simone foxman in doha. >> chinese authorities have needs covid testing requirements in several major cities over the weekend. shanghai which saw a grueling two month lockdown earlier in

the year has scrapped pcr testing requirements to enter then use such as parks, or to enter public transportation. the home to tech giant alibaba has also dropped testing to enter offices and supermarkets. sam bankman-fried says he will testify before the u.s. congress. the chair of the house financial services committee invited the founder of collapsed crypto exchange ftx to join the panel's hearing for next week. bateman says he will appear but only after he has finished quote, learning and reviewing the events that led to the implosion. he says that will --he is not sure that will be in time for the hearing. the uk's rail union has rejected an offer that would end the strike before christmas. it includes a pay rise of 4% including reforms to practices.

rail workers who claim strikes on eight days in december and january grow a growing wave of workers taking industrial action in the u.k. overpay. -- over pay. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much, so dani, we had the chairman ask a layman on friday -- axel leh mann on friday. but mohamed bill solomon -- mohammed bin salman might put $150 million into the investment banking unit. could it be the sovereign wealth fund, and bob diamond thinking about taking a stake in the old csfb. that is a blast from the past. dani: the former barclays ceo with his atlas merchant capital.

what will the structure of credit suisse look like after all of this? saudi national bank will have a 9.9 stake, another investment from the oil-rich nation. manus: how much control will it be over two different vehicles? it is one way to get people into the kingdom, so to speak. you had this massive balance you ha- [announcer] imaginee fridahaving fuller, thicker,

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♪ manus: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm manus cranny in dubai. dani burger alongside me in london hq. dani: asian stocks and commodity

currencies rise as china accelerates the easing of covid curbs across cities, including shanghai. oil also gains on optimism that china's opening will quicken, and as opec+ keeps production steady. sanctions on russian crude kick in today. washington journal reports saudi arabia's crown prince is preparing to take a stake in credit suisse's investment bank. happy monday. we came up the weekend with concerns from larry summers that the fed has longer to go, but our last guest isn't buying it, saying that if anything, the financial deterioration will happen in 2024. we have a long way to go until then. manus: hers was a heeding to the markets. and to the economists. larry summers was here three

weeks ago, nouriel roubini, and i was just the hanger on at the end of this stage but they were in full doom mode. he talks about a wiley coyote moment in the markets, we will all rest for credit and try to sell our cars in america next year. that is if unemployment goes up half a percent, but suddenly it feels much worse. dani: you are just as big of a headliner. manus: sometimes when there is other people who are a bit more experienced, and certainly a lot more intelligent -- in markets, you've got this indecision in the bond market, the dollar gives back 50% of the rally it has had, yuan we will talk more about in a moment, 10-year yields are rising again. there is a split in the market

about higher for longer. the crude oil reflects the reopening narrative in china on a rollover model from of laplace. dani: that narrative from china that they might be living with covid is driving chinese equities. the hang seng is up nearly 4%, now for the rest of this market i must say some of the reprieve will be in an easier way. there is less data, for now what seems to be driving the noises analysts light from bank of america saying this rally is as good as it gets, echoing larry summers that unemployment will get worse and we will finally get another round of cracks in this equity market. manus: unemployment will shock main street.

the price of energy is shocking everybody around the world during this war with ukraine. this as china makes further progress towards reopening. sanctions on russian crude are live today, seaborne crude from russia into europe, how much of this is already in the price? let's bring in our middle east energy and commodities team leader, paul wallace joins me, if we look at the market, we seem to be much more focused on china for the move in the market. but let's leave deal with the details of opec+, what did the press release say to you? >> it was a quick meeting yesterday. only about 20 minutes. it went as most traders expected with the group deciding to keep production steady. one thing they said in the statement was, they had been

proved correct by cutting production in october. a cut that obviously angered the u.s. a lot. opec+ wanted to point out that it has been vindicated. it did say, its next meeting is not until june, it can convene at any time however if the market wanted to. but it seems opec+ really does want to stand back and see what happens with china's reopening and the russian oil price cap. dani: in terms of that russian oil price cap, $60 a barrel, and as manus mentioned, the banning of russian seaborne oil imports, what does that mean for further tightness of the soil market? -- face what -- this oil market?

>> markets were encouraged that the price cap has been set low at $60 a barrel. that is above what russia's main grade urals trades at, at the moment. it is above points at which russia sells its eastern grades of oil that mostly go to asia. so we could see some disruption. russia did say yesterday after the opec+ meeting, and in reaction to the price cap level, that it is willing to cut production if buyers insist on using this price cap. so it has said is willing to reduce volumes. if it does start doing that, that would have an impact on the market for sure. manus: may be the bigger risk is in february, when the next set of sanctions kick in. diesel, that's what we need to be focused on.

we need a diesel chart next time you come in. we will leave you with that. paul wallace, with instructions from dani, she said that email. on middle east combined leader does not need the ticker at all. joining us now is nadia martin wiggen, chief oil analyst at pareto securities, the price cap is 60 dollars, one guest said keeping the oil flowing does not put a dent in putin's pocket. nadia: it does not change anything. we have always expected russian oil to flow out because it is a tight market. these are sanctions, not a global embargo like the iran situation. it shows that the eu and u.s. are not going to go after those

who buy oil from russia. it will probably result in a discount because you don't get the insurance out of the u.k. and europe that we are used to. so china, india and other buyers will have to make up for that weakness. dani: is the infrastructure from russia, the fleet of tankers to keep the same amount of oil flowing, but diverting it to india and china? nadia: yes, but it is not only russia's fleet, it is this general shadow market fleet. it is always murky, but especially now in terms of sales, we don't know who is buying these ships. the exciting point as manus pointed out, is in february, with a clean tanker market because that is much smaller. the difference in close have a much bigger effect, even though we think the quantity will be

the same, it has to sail further. going to china takes 40 days, versus five days to come to europe. you get that tightness initially in the first couple months, then everything will become even. that's where we see the upside in prices, it will be in the tanker market. manus: to squeeze that, the narrative is that diesel can run a lot higher. but how high can oil go if this threat from russia, those who adhere to the price cap are prepared to shut off oil -- do we really have a gauge of how tight this good become the next three months? nadia: on the russian side, they are going to produce at least 6.9 million barrels per day of crude, which has been the average the second half this year. they produced 9.9 million barrels per day last month.

we need to remember they are not being hit that hard. the big question is china. we have had negative demand growth in china, 600,000 barrels per day year on year this year. that hasn't happened since i joined the market in 2007. next year, when they open up from zero covid, we expect demand to jump to 1.5 million barrels per day. there is no chance crude is not going to flow to china. but they want lower prices, so they are waiting. the kuwaitis said after the meeting that they don't see a rise in purchases coming. dani: 1.5 million or more barrels of demand back in the market from china. translate that into oil price, how much does it strengthen in that scenario? nadia: definitely above $100 a barrel depending on when it is.

the sooner it happens, the higher it spikes because we don't have the effective interest rates. definitely, $110 a barrel, maybe $135 a barrel, it depends. this is why opec has been cutting. they need that spare capacity to fill that demand. and china needs to builders stocks before they reopen. a huge indicator for the general markets is when you see flows coming into china, it means zero covid is going to ease up. they are not going to announce zero covid is over, and then start buying, when they are the biggest buyer in the market. manus: that's got a big carry through around the whole commodity complex, not just oil, that's going to be across the board in terms of that restocking narrative. let's just travel back to the u.s., there's two things, potus tweeting overnight that gas prices are down for 176 days in

a row. do you think the repercussions that were so much threatened towards opec+, that narrative drop some of the market? and secondly and more importantly, what happens to the spr from the united states of america? nadia: on the first point, we are having more refinery runs. we are at peak refinery runs in the u.s., but by the summer and spring, the gasoline story will be absolutely back and prices will be flying. right now is all about diesel, as you already pointed out. china is sitting on spare refining capacity, so it is a perfect example of supply train constraints. if china is back their refineries and exporting products, that will alleviate pain, but we're still going to see higher gasoline prices next summer. when we look at that

relationship between saudi arabia and the u.s., it is testy. that is the nature of the world right now. but i think they will try to work together. on the spr's, the u.s. will probably have to release from the spr when china reopens, because that will drive a spike. they have enough crude to do it, but we haven't seen these levels, and that is the floor the market because they have to buy back that crude at some point. dani: thank you for joining us this morning, nadia martin wiggen, chief oil analyst at pareto securities. we were just talking about china reopening, right now hang seng is up by more than 8%. i like how an analyst put it, you don't want to be late to this party. even if we are not close to a full reopening, still plenty of buyers. manus: the narrative as well is that it will be a jagged

reopening, whether it is taiwan or hong kong, in which case what is the tolerance level of the authorities in terms of covid numbers. if it is taiwan, formed a half-million is the peak, that monster move in equities is translated into the currency breaking seven on the column. if you look at the high bright red forex column, breaking seven. but to sustain that, you need sustained substantial reopening. dani: and we will talk more about that coming up. the pivot accelerating. but the question is, how much and how further it will it go, and how fast? that could drive how this equity market continues, and what shape it takes. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's your monday addition of daybreak europe. let's have a check on the hang seng tech index, rallying more than 8% of the reopening, this is all on getting ready for the relaxation of covid rules. and testing across major cities. the hang seng up 8.5%, the property index up to .9% pre-chinese equities -- beijing has shifted away from that very strict zero covid policy. let's bring in our reporter, rachel is there for us, make these shifts come alive, just how sizable are these moves? >> we did see things moving very quickly towards the end of last

week. beijing has moved the fastest. it is allowing home isolation for infected people. over the weekend, we saw major cities from shanghai and all over the country dropping a range of testing requirements. they are saying students and elderly people don't have to take part in mass testing. a lot of places are no longer requiring negative covid tests to enter public venues. that is a big shift, it is a definite nationwide relaxation. at the same time, so many other rules remain. china is so far from everywhere else. dani: yes, they are easing but from a very strict level so it looks very different from where manus is, in dubai, and myself in london. what is this mean for china's most economists believe the

timeline for reopening is still at the earliest, second quarter next year. a big challenge ahead is as they loosen seek kate -- see cases o up, and what will happen to people's state of mind, is there going to be political blowback? all that protest rest of the world rather, -- weathered, china is just beginning. it will zig and zag and there may be a lot of pushback against the government. dani: but so far, hang seng up 8.5%. bloomberg's rachel chang giving us the latest on lockdowns in china. coming up, we turn to the u.s. where wall street banks are slashing their bonus with the talent war over. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe". just less than a year ago, wall street's biggest banks were locked in a vicious bidding war for talent. now not so much, a slump in dealmaking slowed bonuses and pay. bloomberg's kriti gupta joins us now, bringing us the new york story, it feels bad because it wasn't that long ago we were talking about trying to attract bankers. how bad is it right now? >> complete 180. this is important because just about a year ago, we did have this boom in banking and that resulted in steep a rises. that has completely turned around. for example, a 30% bonus cut. that is from the likes of j.p.

morgan and citi. this is the kind of thing they are talking about, to cut back on costs. a lot of this has to do with the federal reserve and dealmaking volume which has dropped 47%. dani: maybe in your next life manus, you don't want to come back as a junior banker? manus: this was the joke on the show for a long time, i wanted to come back and receive the remuneration and perhaps complain about how hard i had to work. but all pots are not created equal in the banking industry, bond traders have done better versus the quiche eating equity traders. >> i will throw you a third one, commodity traders is where a lot of revenue has been made, given that oil prices have been on a

tear this year in the year before. and agriculture and copper as well. the volatility in the commodity market -- as opposed to investment banking revenue. you see banks on both sides of the atlantic offsetting the pain they are seeing in the deal space. manus: thank you very much, good to have you in london. we will see you more through the week, kriti gupta sweeping in from new york. the one story as the reopening in china, it will be jagged, the hang seng is up over 8% at this juncture. mike wilson has delivered there. raised to overweight, and they have been equal weight since january 2021. it's been out for a little while, but that is what you call a monster move, isn't it? dani: the interesting part is

the other side of this trade, which is -- this does relate to the china story somewhat, because if china comes back, there is more demand for oil, commodities move higher. that enforces inflation, so in a roundabout way, can you really by u.s. equities and follow this treasury rally in a scenario where china is back and has demand? manus: and it is all about the oil and commodity restock. you see that in iron ore, which is up 4.4% on the commodity page. the yuan strength, the high betas responding to the reaction function, and the aussie dollar is also prevalent on that board. it is about a belief that it will reopen, but it will not be a one-way trade. dani: not a one-way trade, but you are right, high beta moves,

aussie dollar and canada dollar, all of these energy exporters. one thing that gives market room to rally this week is the fact that we are in the fed blackout period right now. we don't have any really big data to do any catalysts to this market. but in about a week and a half, we will get more american inflation data. can this rally continue if we get data that suggests unemployment is still very solid? those numbers are creeping up quite yet, and inflation hasn't really gone down. there is a lot of crosscurrents for us to digest against the market moves of the past two weeks. manus: but whether it is larry summers saying we will face a wiley coyote moment next year, when the rates really kick in on your mortgage and cost-of-living, we are going to face one of those moments. in terms of volatility.

which is repressed and dropping at the moment. what does a wiley coyote moment look like in vol 2023? dani: we might need to get rates above 5%. this chart you flight showing volatility is still very low. terminal rate is priced at 4.9%. it's unlikely volatility will pick up unless we get a move over 5. that's it for manus and me this morning. running up, we will have an exclusive with the irish central bank governor. this is bloomberg. ♪

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