>> this excess savings conversation, from my perspective, is starting to run out. >> the rocket fuel for consumer spending is in a dramatic fashion moving >> to say we are already headed into a liquidity crisis is a little immature. >> we are going to have to get weaker for banks to hit their targets. >> we have shoes to drop that we are going to have to wait for in 2023. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance"

on tv and radio beside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity features basically chasing away the s&p 500. next week, it is all about cpi and the federal reserve. more decent data out of america. the friday payroll out of the ism shows equities lower. >> i started monday seeming like it would not be a snooze fest this weekend. i think we are seeing a lot of crosscurrents going on in one of this is the continued resilient. you mentioned earlier, the renaissance which said these are the facts. even andrew hollenhorst said the reality is the resiliency there. >> let's look at that. what we heard from him just months ago on this program. this is basically what he had to say. upside risk for the terminal rate for the federal reserve in 2023. >> he is not alone. there are a lot of economists

that say the market seems to be downplaying the expectations for the peak interest rates we might have seen a couple weeks ago. what is going to be the trigger to be the gut check where they start to rethink that? >> second half of 2023, things are just going to be great and awesome. they have the same outlook, at least that is a consensus looking into next year. >> you're going to talk to amy silverman in a minute. there are four cross moments and the probabilities out there. the answer is when you look at the greek math now and then that brings you humility in gaming in june of next year. >> nobody heard the second bit of what you just said. [laughter] >> the dr. from louisiana said

tom, your kurtosis, let me fix it. [laughter] >> here is the price section. equities going nowhere. almost 0.1%. the 10 year yield 3.5570. the euro-dollar, positive 0.2%. >> went do we do with 85 basis points? how do we analyze that? >> how far is the fed fed willing to push? it has been higher this year. a month or so ago, it got close to 4.80 so it has been higher. >> we are wondering why it is not higher given the surprises recently but market data raises a question of how much the economy is decelerating. today we are looking at the georgia senate runoff election

which will determine how much -- will give. if republicans would get a 51-49 majority or not. today we also have the goldman sachs financial services conference. sonali basak will be speaking -- speaking with david solomon in an hour and 12 minutes. native american ceo brian moynihan is speaking. today president biden is going to visit the taiwan semiconductor site in phoenix. brian deese coming up in 10 minutes. how much do you get a sense of the emphasis on creating tech jobs and keeping jobs in the u.s. and then pair that with the alliance in europe and what that means in terms of competition with china. >> very cool. 10 minutes away on bloomberg tv and radio. joining us now is amy wu silverman.

amy, can we begin with a consensus for you for next year? evidence of slowing core inflation, peeking consumer rates should pave the way for more risk-taking in the second half of 2023. i want to be clear that i am not picking on any single bank. that it's a consensus for you next year. do you share it? >> it is interesting because if you look at any outlook, it would say almost the same thing. when i was speaking last week, that was also there view. i would say it is hard to say the options market we look at prices of that term structure. it is 50-50. no one is pacing big bets that will see a miraculous second-half rally but that is the sentiment being expressed. >> honored to have you with us. i have never seen the physics in the i see in this year's set of outlooks.

you and i can look at timeseries and go math-y but predicting out to january seems as uncertain as gaming june or december. how do you interpret the pivotness that we see? who are we kidding? we cannot predict that. >> i have been thinking about this a lot, tom. i think this year, more than any other year in the markets, it has come down to positioning so much. last year, sentiment wives were kind of in the same place. there was a bearish outlook because the fed was going to go into a cycle but you saw that in equities and in kurtosis. he saw so much demand from last year to the beginning of this year but we see none this year. why is the positioning so different if the sentiment is the same? i think it is because people

remain offsides or have gone towards other markets. >> what is the epsilon look like? that randomness to air off the backside of the algebra. what is the candidate miss of -- the candidacy of the unknown? >> on the downside, what i have heard from a number of clients's potential systemic risk and leverage loans. you are starting to see that specifically in bklm. that is a big downside risk. geopolitics continued to play at downside risk. taiwan or ukraine. on the upside, it is general. people cannot risk rallying. this tells me the reach for upside remains the paid trade even though the fed remains bearish. i think the details are not price. everyone is between 3100 and

4100 on their price targets but we need to watch for this next year. >> i would love for you to elaborate on the systemic risks whether it is leverage loans or -- markets. whether it is just overlaid currency debt issues that we are seeing or currency swap overlaid on top of that. this is something the bank of international settlements has been pointing to. what are you concerned about? what is in the broader market that has not yet taken place? >> i think it is two things. especially on the credit side, they know these risks are out there with downgrades by the rating to cost something in leverage loans. the concern is the positioning that i mentioned prior which is all to the upside. all of your demand is sitting on the call rate which means you

will get quite a cycle when people start to the downside. the downside shows a three standard deviation on the market. people are not sitting on tales or using downside protection right now. in the graph happens, i think it will be quite violent. when you have defense now back to a 20 handle, that could happen quickly. >> something i want to finish with is to give you the opportunity to go over something you said a few months ago. that there was market volatility and that would stay with us longer than people think. what have you seen and what do you see through 2022 that you think we need to live with into 2023? >> one nuance people forget because there are so fixated on where things go from 30 to 40, is if you notice, -- has not dropped below 20.

it is not that we are spiking to higher levels. it is that our floor has sent -- has simply gotten higher. our this is not moving below 20. the core of that has remained high. i think it will continue to remain high if the vix is not go down. >> i think we remember when the floor was 10. was that four or five years ago? a big change. >> it is a big change to take the rally from a 31 to a 20. i really have trouble framing other than a massive bull market, how do you get from 20 to 17? that inertial force has to be overcome. >> amy wu silverman of rbc capital markets. allow me to set a stage. equity markets yesterday, the close about 0.4% on the s&p 500.

the average cap for the year and is 4009. we talked about this big recovery in 2023, that is part of the fuller story but the fuller story is the path to nowhere. they are looking for a snapback rally in the second-half back to where we are right now. >> how often is consensus even remotely right? in november or december, of the year previous? i do not put a lot of value in it. >> this is an exercise will go through the next couple of week. we look back on the forecast from 12 months ago and just how wrong they are. i think this year it was getting the fed call wrong. and the federal reserve predictions for 2022 were so wildly off base. we are talking about a year of

400 basis point rate hikes. the projection a year ago was not even 100 so that was wildly, wildly wrong of what they themselves control. >> i would take it further in a different direction which is the bond market live that we have literally never seen. i think it is completely removed. it is about price down, yield up. >> it change the game in europe. goldman sachs and a the next half hour. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i am lisa mateo. voters in georgia will decide with the u.s. senate will look like for the next two years. they will choose between senator raphael warnock, a democrat, or republican herschel walker. democrats already hold the majority but a victory for senator warnock would give him

the 51st vote and make legislation slightly easier. president biden likely to announce he is running for reelection after the christmas, new year's and holidays. the president turned 80 last month and is already the oldest person to occupy the oval office. in china, a covid breakout that occurred last month appears to be tailing off. infections have fallen on each of the last eight days and at the same time, there has been a pullback of the sweeping testing regime in major cities. bloomberg has learned the u.s. and european union are considering new tariffs on chinese steel and aluminum, part of a bid to fight carbon omissions and overflowing capacity. it is a novel approach. the u.s. and eu would use tariffs to advance their climate agenda. president biden will be in arizona today when taiwan

semiconductor plants announced to boost production in the state to 40 billion. tsmc is already conducting a $12 billion plant in phoenix. if you will be joined by apple ceo tim cook lisa sue. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and on "bloomberg quicktake", powered by more than 2700 different journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> making these trips in america will lower the costs for families looking to buy a car, replaced or machine, get a new cell phone and toes companies outcompete the rest of the world -- helps companies outcompete the rest of the world. >> this big event is picking up today. the apple ceo tim cook and advanced micro devices lisa sue among the president today in arizona for an event. >> i feel lucky to have this. this is the fancy iphone. for those of you on radio, it is what we call ferro purple. it is sort of like the tots uniform. i feel lucky to have this because demand is so great that it is hard to find. >> you are on the waiting list?

>> yes. i had to wait weeks. the answer is they want to bring the stuffing and magic here over to america. that is all there is to it. here to talk about that today. tim cook and others will join the president in goldwater, amazonia. science and technology, chips and security. here is brian deese with us for an early morning brief before he travels to arizona. i want to get right to the political economics of this. they are going to middle berry which is a democratic runaway in arizona all the way to 1950. if the president moves for investment, does that bring democratic votes? is this a political victory lap for the president and a science victory lap? >> most impactful thing i have

learned today is work -- is where color choices. this is a big milestone for the country for economic and national security reasons. as he said, inside the iphone but also military applications and our most advanced computing applications are these leading edge semiconductors. today, we produce none in the u.s. this announcement signals the beginning of building out the american supply chain. the other thing we are going to be doing in arizona is underscoring we are seeing this across the board in not just semiconductors but clean energy. you are seeing across the phoenix area big investments in electric energy investments and fiber that will lay for broadband across the country. this does bring economic benefits and optimism to places like phoenix. >> there has to be an nurser to

point where you push against the foreign manufacturers. what is your timeline? we are not moving the global semiconductor needle but out there somewhere is where america gets a critical mass in manufacturing these complex processes including lithium batteries. how long does -- how long is the brian deese timeline to get to where we move the semiconductor leader -- needle? >> this does not happen overnight. building one of these labs at the president will see today is a very complicated, multiyear process. the good news is we now have an long-term incentives. that is one of the key pieces to understand about what we have accomplished in both clean energy and semiconductors. we now have incentives in place for a decade. this gives private companies and private capital the ability to move in quickly.

and a lot of people so we may not see the benefits for a couple years but we are seeing this now in people deciding to invest in the u.s. while the full timeline to build out the mainframe and produce chips and batteries in the u.s. is a multiyear project. but we are seeing something a lot a people did not think was possible and that will result in economic opportunity next year. >> how concerned are you and the president about the -- with allies that say this is anticompetitive and draws more dollars to the u.s. and more of the tech industry? >> the president had a good conversation with president emmanuel macron and other leaders. the president makes no apology for the fact his economic strategy is focused on generating more economic opportunity and security and resilience for our economy and our workers. at the same time, the

opportunity globally for the u.s. leadership in these areas is quite significant. semiconductors and clean energy are areas where the world is in short supply. we need more electric vehicle batteries locally. when the u.s. invests and pulls forward innovation, that lowers costs and makes it easier to deploy in other jurisdictions. certainly we are going to work with our partners and allies for their concerns. we can sit down and talk about them but the president's strategy to make the u.s. an attractive place to invest but also postal -- but also pull forward innovation is not a problem. >> one of the issues is it has to be a longer-term basis for them to bear fruit. how important is consistency? i say this at a time when president biden was talking about this in the past three days and is expected to announce

running again. members of the economic council have talked about leaving. i know there have been rumors about yourself. how much is that important to keeping things on the rails? >> who are raising a really important point which is if we are going to provide long-term incentives for private capital to invest in the u.s. and we need policy --. one of the important elements we got done over the past year is most of what we have passed has broad bipartisan support. it certainly has a partisan support outside of washington. if you look at the chips act, you have support in congress as well. you have democrats and republicans but also business people from the center of the country to the coast line in this idea that having the u.s. as a leader in clean energy manufacturing and semiconductor production is a worthwhile, long-term national investment that will help provide stability private investors need. >> i love that you were wearing

hugo boss to the state dinner the other night with mr. micron and all of you enjoying lychees. let me cut to the chase. how is our trade relationship to the french as we talk about technology? how are we doing? >> i think the relationship as a whole is very strong and it is always important when the two leaders have the opportunity to sit with each other and spend time. we have our challenges but we also are able as two countries to lift up. there were really appointment moments with the toes of the two leaders marking just how our two countries -- toasts of the two leaders marking just how important our two countries are. we are going to have concerns and issues we are going to discuss. overall, the relationship is

coming from a strong place. >> can you confirm it was actually hugo boss? >> i can confirm definitively it was not hugo boss. [laughter] >> can you confirm definitively that you are staying with the administration? >> i can confirm that i am totally focused on the work we have to do. we have a lot of work to do between here and the end of the year. >> i can confirm you kind of dodge that one. [laughter] thank you for your time this morning. >> ike: back to semiconductor meetings from 40 years ago. we were all talking about can we get up to -- >> we have seen the likes of apple get on board as well. the europeans were always going to get -- to be annoyed by this but the message is they have to get on board as well. >> this globalization is really

something new. i do not mean to make light. can you imagine if we were taking wine from france and bring it over here? >> that we do the already? >> yes but it is not the same. >> controversial. a great lineup today. ♪ what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai.

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>> two hours away from the opening. the s&p 500 trying to pick it back up with futures positive. the mastec 100 up zero. checking out the twos, tens and 13's right now. the yield curve yesterday at -80 basis points. this morning, it is back on. the two-year yield down by a couple basis points, the two-year yield -- 10 year yield as well. >> -82 basis points right now is just the weight of it. seems like every bit of news, there is just the ability to take it out to a greater inversion. >> where does it leave the

dollar story? the euro-dollar is all over the pace -- the place. backed away out of the back of the ism. data in america is better than expected. high yields and stronger dollar. wax look at brent -- >> look at brent crude. $81 50 six cents and going down. $75.88 in west texas intermediate. >> i have mentioned a few times, where it china fit into this? every day we are waiting for another shift in policy out of china. the latest this week that we have seen was shanghai backing away from testing requirements. the latest is beijing, the capital, backing away from testing requirements. i would say that is the shift this week. have we seen a drop wholesale of

covid zero, no. every day, we hear less about protests and more about backing away from covid zero. >> so how do you make sense of the oil price? if you believe there is a reopening, why are we not seeing a bigger pop on the value of crude? it is a slower day but we can see some action. get lab -- gitlab is doing higher than expected. these shares are up more than 18%. alcoa seeing a bit of a pop-up. let is a lot compared to the others. this comes after a bloomberg reports that the u.s. and europe are talking about climate based tariffs on chinese steel and aluminum, a way of pinpointing the levees specifically. it is interesting that it has to do with climate. i am sure we are going to get

more details as we go along. then general electric. that was raised from oppenheimer as a result of the aviation business. >> finally a splash getting out there with three new companies. that is hard to see. you have bill combs's important book out on the collapse. now, edward morse. had a small shop years ago that did this off of political and economic work on oil over many decades and now holds shop with global head of commodities research at citigroup. we are thrilled he could join us today. what are the $100 over a barrel people getting wrong? >> they got wrong supply and demand, but more on the demand side. this was supposed to be a year depending on what projection that you are looking at that

there would be 5% or 6% demand growth post-pandemic. it just fizzled out. largely because of something nobody expected which was the pace of the slowdowns and recessions merging in the artist economies in the world. china, the u.s. and europe. the demand-side really is the big killer on this. we are looking at probably 1.7% demand growth this year compared to projections of 4% or higher. >> what is interesting to me is the prices have come down and everyone is rationalizing along the way to a price point of washington reacts. what is the price point you have in your head where this becomes painful for the oil winners? >> the price point where it becomes really painful is going to be below $65. there is plenty of oil that

could be productively exploited at $70. he starts getting into some fields that just do not work into 65 dollars. it gets unbelievably painful below $55. you just remarked on that the u.s. government has indicated that if i start buying oil, then wti falls below 70. that is the first test. opec has said we are going to stick with this but we are not going to change our oil projections on the market. we are maybe going to evaluate them in february. i think the next political move on managing a market would be up to the u.s.. >> up to the u.s.? how so? what are you looking for? >> i go back to the president's point that at $70 a barrel, they can start buying back oil for the strategic reserve. that is meant as an

encouragement for the industry to keep drilling and producing. it will be a test to see what happens and whether the president is serious about this and thinks this is the time when we are really getting off of oil that the demand may be falling faster than people thought. >> why are we talking about the downside surprise at a time when china is potentially reopening but these headlines do not seem to be moving the needle at all even though this is a big concern that people thought to perhaps send oil prices to $125? >> we have china news that really did move the markets. it winds up a little higher than the fundamentals wanted. now we have good news in the u.s. about the economy which is really bad news in terms of the commodity markets because this indicates the fed will keep raising prices higher than people thought. borrowing is more expensive, the economy slows down more, demand

for oil falls. the market is responding for news but today's news is good for the u.s. last week was good for china. >> it is also this week that we are getting news about china perhaps loosening testing requirements in beijing after reducing them in shanghai yesterday. how much of this comes together absolute the accelrys demand more than the base case or is that not on the table because of how much russian barrels are coming back on? i am not understanding the oil price action they saw some narratives people have been saying. >> people are fleeing the market because of the level of absurdity and because we are getting toward the end of the year and those who made money this year did not want to lose any at the end day. liquidity is drying up and when that happens, you gives incredible volatility in the market rated the second point is the uncertainty about russian

oil. we thought it was going to be a significant increase in demand for oil from other sources as europe moves off of russian oil. we actually have that and it was an incredible increase in exports from the u.s. a week ago, it was at 11,700,000 barrels a day in oil and gross experts. the u.s. has been replacing those barrels. we have had our inventories fall on the crude side but they are rising on the product side. this is a period of time when diesel demand was going to be high and now diesel prices are going down and we are actually building. the data is a mix but they are equally bearish as they are bullish. >> i want to touch back on your years of work with woodrow wilson and princeton and johns hopkins. we have a miracle happening today.

the president of the u.s. will attempt to turn the under show force of globalization on its ear by traveling to arizona where we are going to build semiconductors. from where you sit with her decades of experience, can you be successful in stealing back manufacturing processes from around the world? >> actually, i think we can. you mentioned deglobalization effectively and we are not going to see trade going to see trade growing the way it did in 1990-2010. all three major economies, china, the u.s., and europe are putting blockages on trade and being protective. here, there is coincidences between the u.s. and europe based on what the europeans are calling their cbam, carbon-based adjustment mechanism. they are putting the same on

china. there is a commonality of interest. china is pulling back on trade because of energy security issues. you may say commodity security issues. -- hence the belt and road's and any pipelines from russia and the like. we have seen all three economies pulling back from globalization and getting supply chains at home. that is an important shift that will dominate the next decade. >> just want to squeeze this into built onto stories. what are you expecting from the meeting this week? >> the one thing you can expect is greater ties on the oil market side. china and the saudi's already have an agreement on putting in new refining and testing out the saudi technology, to convert oil directly into petrochemicals.

petrochemicals is where the growth and demand will be. the saudis have an answer there. i think it is going to be partly about other world and new alignments. the alignments are not going to be totally, solidly moving to the east for the saudis. if you look at where their interests are in terms of issuing bonds and putting out shares on the ipo's of the state on enterprises, they cannot go away from london and new york. they can get what they get in london any work provided -- they cannot get what they get in london or new york provided by russia. the saudis are there to provide oil that is kind of under the table like strategic stocks. the chinese want, as prices go

down, to build their stockpile to the level they want. they have russia selling oil in distress and they are seeing with they can get from the saudis as well. >> wonderful to catch up with you. it was the cautious one, wasn't he? >> you mentioned earlier and gave us some math which is what ed morse does. it is all about the demand from china. >> gene seroka, the executive director of the port of ali's on coming up. here in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> giving you up-to-date with news from around the world. with the first work, i am lisa mateo. it is runoff day in georgia where voters will decide between democratic senator raphael warnock or the in herschel walker. the race will determine whether democrats expand their then with the doherty -- thin majority

within the senate. the u.s. is considering sending taiwan antiaircraft missiles. the deal is valued at $882 million. it is a move that would only add to tensions between the u.s. and china. the biden administration is concerned beijing is becoming more aggressive toward taiwan. the global airline industry is set to have a record post-pandemic profit next year. travel rebound in the u.s. will offset the ongoing covert restrictions in china but profit will still be less than a fifth of 20. small, inexpensive devices to help you locate small items like keys or your bags. two women are suing apple over their air attacks because it allowed their exes to track them without their consent.

women claim this does little to alert women if they are being tracked. actress kirstie alley has died. she was in the series cheers that one a double -- golden globes and me. her family said she had been battling cancer. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and on "bloomberg quicktake", powered by more than 2700 different journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number. >> on the port negotiation, i have been in here from the beginning. the dockworkers have negotiations and their own bargaining issues they are working on. they are moving forward and having those conversations. the difference is the companies and the doc workers came to the

table at the beginning and not halfway through. >> the u.s. secretary of labor speaking with me on friday after congress imposed restrictions on a u.s. rail strike. price action sticking up as follows today. there up by zero point 1% on the s&p 500. the euro-dollar coming back up. where 10 year is 3.5497. >> we're trying to clear this up as jonathan ferro dead. i thought sure -- i thought your interview with marty walsh was tense and focus. we need to discuss her negotiations around docks. the telegraph literally has a stock -- a strike char on the front page. have the right guest to speak to right now to give you clarity. gene seroka is with us.

the executive director at the port of los angeles. i will let you this describe what you do. i'm going to go back to my complete knowledge of docks and ports. marlon brando, 1954. i think for most americans, that is the stereotype. we fly into lax indra world is down below and distant and removed. how much of all this tension that jonathan ferro talked to marty walsh about his labor union titian -- tension? >> there is not a day that goes by that something in the supply chain does not affect us. going back to covid-19 and consumer base import surges and now ongoing discussions of labor. in our case, dockworkers had been on the job an average of six days a week during the pandemic. >> i didn't interrupt because

the stereotype is these guys are up having beverages at the sunset power hotel when they should be working and you are saying the work. >> absolutely they did. every hour to ship that comes onto us endless unloads and loads the entire vessel space. >> you have lost a love of volume. can you walk us through how much volume you have lost, to whom, how much is going to be lost forever and what you can do to get it back? >> it has to be an industry movement. over the last three months, we have lost about 25% of our cargo. we had an earlier than normal peak season. we were on par at the beginning with the record we set last year. we have had durables come down because you are not going to buy a refrigerator or a big bulky item every single year but it has been handwringing about a potential labor disruption that

would cargo the east of the gold coast. even though both sides put out two joint releases saying they would not strike and would not walk out. >> do you think it lost forever? >> no i don't. i think there would be a portion that sticks to the other gateways and the ex-white house thing crisscrossing the country the last month and have to share the -- and let people know productivity is still there. >> are you convinced this is not going to happen again? >> that is the tough part. every time it looks different in these negotiations. whether we are dockworkers or recent railroad workers or others. we need some certainty in the marketplace. typically the dockworker contracts go every six years crated >> that is the reason why perhaps some of the business will not come back and some people will diversify more than they previously have. what are those regions doing in

the northeast and south that is challenging for you right now in l.a.? >> back in 2002, 80% of the transpacific trade went through ports. today it is less than 60. ports on the east have hired switched on leadership and aligned with policymakers and put coalitions together to drive investment. over the last decade, the federal government has out invested west coast ports 11-1. >> who has the 11? who has the one? >> east and gold coast ports 11. west coast one. >> what is -- doing? is she sleeping? >> we have been campaign for los angeles. governor gavin newsom, the president and his administration. 40% of our nation supports comes through ports. >> this is really important.

1 in 50 jobs in the nation has to we are flying into lax and looking down on gene seroka. >> and one in 9 jobs. >> what is your biggest effort? you were down when the transatlantic rubber came through utah. but when you go and unload the boats and they are on freight, what do we need to do to get the freight lane straightened out after the strike jon ferro mentored with marty walsh? >> there are 200,000 companies that use this port to import and export every year. by california law, we are a landlord and a real estate company but we have created this outsize responsibility in our convening powers to bring everybody. >> the railroads are a bottleneck and are controlled by western guys. is it warren buffett false that the rovers cannot get ripped

apart? i need to make some news here. lets us blame this on warren buffett. >> over the last four years with everyone looking at the consumer search, there have been micro trends including fenty containers and the bottlenecks the railroad saw. there will be something else around the corner. >> how many more days do you want to talk about buffett? are you still going? >> after we spent the whole time talking about his wonderful, state-of-the-art training thing he has in the attic. >> are you still trying to reschedule the interview? [laughter] we are all trying to work out where we are right now. never mind that in six-nine months. right now, what are you seeing? >> the last four months of consumer spending numbers are more encouraging than many thought. coming into the holidays and

black friday or cyber monday, it is encouraging. it will give us a chance in our country to flesh out some inventory and get back from a be a more normal cadence at the first of the year. encouraged by the economy, based on the consumer spending. >> aaron dutch -- aaron judge. angels or daughters? >> i have to go for the dodgers. >> what was orlando? >> $50 million a year. >> explained to be where that money comes from? >> stevie cohen. [laughter] fun factors. >> money blows my mind. >> i learn more about this. jean is sort of removed from the labor debate but i've learned more from him. >> i think we learned from

eugene us we are not singly slow down in the economy that we thought. >> what we do not discuss enough is the fact we talked retail goods. we have about the said amount of cargo coming through our report to our parts or components for u.s. manufacturers. i was just with the manufactures association in chicago on friday in their up -- and they are upbeat. >> have 15 more questions. what is the thing the media gets the most wrong on the glorious dock that is one in 15 of our jobs? >> the interdependency between all these notes in the supply chain participants that you have to look at. it is layered and nuanced. >> can you see as doing a show at 4:00 a.m. from the docks? >> i would be happy to do a special, be later on in the evening.

we have to do the summer thing, go to the west coast, get better weather. this was great. let's do this again. gene seroka, executive director of the port of los angeles. i'm going to talk a lot more about what the say on this economy and looking forward also to goldman sachs chairman and ceo talking about 10 minutes time, sitting down with sonali basak. that interview is just moments away. the bonus ports. i want more clarity on the bonus port. you are being told that the bonus port is smaller? >> where are you going to get it elsewhere? that is the key. >> from new york this morning, good morning to you all. ♪

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>> we continue to believe there is another issue that has to drop. the economy is resilient still. >> the market has priced and will be the cause of economic pain in the year ahead. >> it feels like there is hope the u.s. can avoid a recession