>> we are counting down to the market open in tokyo and seoul. australia has just come online. a worn of recession risk. solomon tells us he sees a bumpy ride ahead. asian stocks are set to follow a drop in the u.s. after the longest losing streak for the s&p 500 since november. and a hedge fund defaults on debt. let's get you to the open of trading. a staggered open in sydney. indicated downside of 7/10 of 1% in the start of trading. if lactulose start to trading for the asx 200 -- a flat start to trading for the asx 200.

the nasdaq 2% lower. aussie dollar, a little upside. we saw broader dollar strength tuesday across u.s. equities. volumes are sporadic. kiwi stocks, downside of half a percent. nikkei futures extending losses. dollar-yen future holding under 137. shery: with the doom and gloom we heard from banking ceos did not help. u.s. futures at the moment unchanged after the slump in u.s. stocks. kbw bank index the lowest since october. tech wrote, apple scales back there self-driving plans. haven demand playing into the market. 10-year yield falling.

oil recovering some losses from the elite new york session -- from the new york session. let's look into the doom and gloom rhetoric coming from banking ceos. wall street banks preparing for a potential recession. david solomon says the bank should exercise caution as uncertainty looms. >> we are in an uncertain time. we are changing monetary conditions quickly and that is slowing down economic activity. if you are running a big financial services firm you have to assume there are bumpy times ahead. we could see a recession next year so you have to be cautious and prepare. shery: let's bring in our senior finance reporter. was most rhetoric negative from the conference? >> yes.

it's hard not to walk away with the impression that wall street ceos are pouring gloom on markets today. these are the executives of the best window into what is going on. bank of america ceo confirmed deals with such [indiscernible] goldman sachs ceo, when they come out and strike a cautious note, you had bank of america ceo talk about how consumer spending is slowing. goldman sachs ceo saying he is more pessimistic than his own economists that think we could avoid a recession next year. solomon is not sure and basically said he doesn't know if the central banks can engineer a soft landing. so that is weighing on markets and everyone who heard the remarks today will go into next

year jittery. haidi: do we go into earnings next month more jittery? >> an interesting question. i would say a lot of what we do in earnings is in the books. we have a good sense for how earnings for the year will pan out. it will be nothing like in 2021. we will see a come down from levels but that's not the big surprise. we are kind of expecting that. what we will pay close attention to next month is what they see on the horizon and if there tone

will get more uncertainty -- in certain in the next five weeks or will they get more hopeful that things will look better. that's what we will watch. haidi: as we mentioned, u.s. stocks slumping with gloomy economic warnings from big banks and broader concern about the impact of fed policy on growth. when you look at the session, the past four sessions it feels like hopes of the fed started to take a backseat. >> i agree and i think this is a recalibration of expectations and optimism we see and when you get big u.s. banks ceos start to indicate a bit -- a bumpy road ahead and warnings of a recession, you start to feel

unease coming through and i think the idea that the fed will pivot in july might be recalibrated in the coming weeks. shery: will december be the savior? a guest talked about santa claus rally materializing. >> there is always the potential for it but let's not forget 2018 when we had the opposite and it was extremely volatile over the holidays. there is always the potential for that. i think even if we get uncertainty or signs of encouragement about fed activity next year, we cannot think that earnings will be insulated from

economic pain ahead and i think even the optimism of a fed if it will be tempered by expectations for a dip in corporate earnings, which is inevitable at this point. that is some of the comments we have gotten from the banks. the impact to corporate next week will be real and temper some of the optimism from a fed pivot. shery: and we will watch apple suppliers in trading. tim cook confirmed the company will build chips in the u.s. for the first time in nearly a decade. reducing reliance on asia. he spoke alongside president biden in phoenix. >> as many of you know, we work with tsmc to manufacture chips

that help power our products all over the world and we look forward to expanding network work in the years to come as tsmc forms a new and deeper roots in america. shery: arotech reporter debbie joins us. what do we know? >> tsmc will build a plant in arizona and it will bring the core investment to arizona. they had a high profile event today featuring major customers, tim cook, president biden and

several ceos to talk about future business with tsmc and manufacturing in arizona. haidi: what do we know about the subsidies that will be received on the timeline for when this comes on line? >> the federal government is still in the process of deciding who will get how much so hopefully by february we will have a better idea. the plant will come online in 2024 and the second plant will make chips in 2026 and by that time [indiscernible]

shery: debbie wu joining us live from phoenix. let's turn to su keenan. >> russia is considering setting a price forward in response to the gas price cap. moscow is considering imposing a fixed price. no visibility on what that level might be. donald trump's company has been found guilty of engaging in tax fraud for over a decade. prosecutors show trump executives disguised holiday bonuses as consulting fees. it's the first time a truck business has been convicted of criminal conduct and it comes as trump runs for a second term. the u.s. is sticking with north

korea policy, focusing on strong ties with foreign allies. white house says policy has been effective and prudent. they are considering all tools to get pendulum back to the negotiating table. president xi xi jinping. beijing and riyadh will sign more than 20 deals. energy and infrastructure top the agenda. china has not confirmed the trip. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: coming up, natwest says

it is expecting a basis point hike in india. shery: and we will speak with wealth consulting that says investors should get portfolio investors positions before the fed the signals a pause. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> competition for talent is still strong. >> we are hiring new business managers and financial managers and private bankers. >> we feel good about what we are seeing. >> there are bumpy times ahead. >> consumption and bank of america is up over the last year. >> i think we will go into a

recession next year in the u.s.. if we have to make tough decisions, we will. >> we have to be cautious and prepare. shery: our next guest says investors should get portfolio's position for recovery before the fed signals a pause. jimmy, good to have you in new york. you expect some more upside to the soft markets. >> i am. i would be contrarian thinking -- say more people are putting volatility into next year and i think markets will be volatile but trend will be to the upside. shery: what will be the driver? so far markets and investors expecting a pivot playing into the market but today we heard all this doom and gloom. >> we have had a nice rally off

the lows and i think it's because of the consumers. they still have a lot of money in banks and the test will be when the money runs out maybe next year, by then i am hoping the fed will have signaled a pause before that and might be on the way to lowering rates so as long as the consumer stays strong and remains confident, the market will go up. shery: does the recent shopping season give you confidence? next year we could see more covid stimulus. >> it's about the consumer. the money we received with stimulus and the money sitting in bank accounts that has not been spent. the middle of next year may be we will test that a little when the money runs out but until then the trend will be on the upside. i also expect inflation will look better and come down faster

than what people are predicting. when housing data becomes more current, looking at the way they calculate data, when it is reflected in two current numbers i think it will give more reason for the fed to signal a pause, maybe sooner than people think and eventually lower rates. haidi: you talk about the need for good growth. how selective are you and where do you see opportunities where names are the ones falling beyond broader market? >> we are overweight value and has been all year long. i think you can take advantage of bigger declines in growth stocks on the market in general so i would still look for quality companies that dominate sectors. when interest rates go back down i think valuation adjustment

will happen and investors will flop back into names. companies are still generating profit and can potentially take advantage of a global reopening of the economy and china reopening might be helpful for that in 2023. haidi: where do you see good buying opportunities? >> in the tech sector, big mega cap names that have been sold off farther then the market has in general, looking at those names, some names investors flocked into the market was on its way up, i think investors will go back into some of those stocks but really looking for quality earnings and the ability to drive those earnings as the economy hopefully reopens globally. shery: how will u.s. dollar

strength factor into those earnings next year? she prefer smaller or larger names? -- do you prefer larger or smaller names? >> as the dollar begins a little and global economies improve i think we will be led by small-cap companies first in the u.s. but internationally you are looking at companies that can still sell product globally and getting back some lost revenue from the shutdown. shery: jimmy lee, good to have you with us in new york. you can get a roundup of all the stories you need for your day in our mobile anywhere app. you can because to me -- you can customize your settings so you only get the news you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: grayscale investments is facing more issues. concerns about alleged mismanagement. here's annabelle. >> the issues around the grail scale investments are well telegraphed. essentially it is owned by digital currency group that also owns genesis global trading which holds withdrawals back in november and there have been questions around the health of the parent. the premise is that it provides investors access to pick going without having to buy -- bitcoin without having to buy it directly. they were trading at a premium

but that has reversed. you can see the discount. the firm issued a lot of shares that has not redeemed. so it is being sued by a hedge fund and filed a complaint to a court to get information from the court to investigate mismanagement, conflicts of interests. it wants to use this to push grayscale to try to ease the discount you just saw between the share price by lowering fees and resuming redemptions. shery: tell us about the fallout of ftx implosion now spreading. >> until recently the world of decentralized finance has been immune to what we saw from ftx because of the structure of the

industry. it executes on smart contracts and people have control of underlying asset. we have seen flows into exchanges picking up but in terms of what we see now, it shows up on lending protocol. this is on a company called maple. essentially ahead fudge -- essentially a hedge fund. it has basically defaulted on a debt. essentially the size of the transaction is small. $36 million. but it shows the tentacles of this on how much the fallout of ftx has spread. haidi: apple scaled-back plans for their future electric vehicle and postponed the launch

for a year -- by a year. a fully autonomous vehicle is not feasible and they are planning for a less autonomous car for use on highways. and a ruling could limit data that facebook's parent company could access. warner bros. discovery will sell hbo max through amazon prime. they will be able to watch programs through amazon. shery: u.s. futures are traded muted after a slump in the wall street session.

four sessions of losses for u.s. stocks. the doom and gloom and economic warning is not helping. thanks talking about bumpy times ahead. talking about a hard recession next year. tech giants seeing a continued route with apple scaling back self-driving plans. this is leading to the dollar rising. 10 year yield up 3.5%. in asia, more upside for oil. wi trading around $74. after a drop to the lowest since last december. the risk off sentiment thinning liquidity for the final month of the year. haidi: we're about half an hour

of trade into australia's session this morning and losses of 7/10 of 1%. lower futures for japan and hong kong. the s&p 500 extended declines into a fourth day some the longest losing streak since november. futures looking more modestly positive. a building of a santa claus rally. we have heard all of the downside sentiment regarding the economy and the strength of the household. we will get more on that with the ceo of goldman sachs, who sounded

shery: goldman sachs seeing bumpy times ahead, warning of potential u.s. recession next year. david solomon spoke with bloomberg on the sidelines of the goldman sachs u.s. financial services conference in new york. >> we operate a business where every single year, we have to pay our most important asset, our people. it should not be surprising to people, watching the performance of the business, that's 2021 was exceptional. a record year. highest red dachshund -- highest net revenue ever. we are still early in the process of making those decisions. like every year, we pay for performance and we will pay people based on the overall performance of the firm. especially for our senior people. we consider the overall performance of the firm as we go through our process. >> this year you reintroduced the natural culligan of headcount. the bonus discussion is not just

here, it is everywhere. how do you balance that with the story we saw a year ago, this talent war? and what is happening this year into tougher times? how do you balance retention as well as more difficult conversations? >> we take a long-term view with everything. you have to adjust to the environment, so you make changes around the margin. at the same point, you take a long-term view and try to think about your business over time. we are focused on serving clients and core businesses. it is important for us to strike the right balance in protecting our franchise, making sure that our people are pay-for-performance. on the other hand, it is a tougher environment. we take a long-term view. our people take a long-term view. i just made some comments in the financial services forum where i said we were surprised by how resilient the competition is.

you are seeing it across the world, labor is still relatively tight. >> the talent war is not over? >> the talent war, i think there are headwinds, given changing economic conditions but the competition is still very strong. how that evolves is unknown. certainly if we have a slower economic environment, it will have an effect. you can see across all industries that people are thinking about their headcount size and making pruning cuts just because they feel more margin pressure coming. financial services is not immune to that end we all have to make the right decisions for our organizations and shareholders. sonali: headcount or otherwise, as you think about this environment, do you think goldman is going to have to pursue another round of cost cuts? if that were the case, where? >> we always look at the environment and size the firm. if the environment gets tougher, we will make decisions to size

appropriately. that could come from slowing down hiring, which we have already done, and it also might come from pruning certain areas. shery: david solomon speaking exclusively to sonali basak. let's get to su keenan with headlines. circa national and >> morgan stanley will reduce its global workforce by about 2%. wall street prayers for a potential u.s. recession. bloomberg has learned that the cuts amounts to roughly 1600 employees. the bank had over 80,000 workers by the end of the third order. that compares to about 60,000 pre-pandemic. goldman sachs and bank of america also warned of hiring slowdowns. the fallout from sam bankman-fried's crypto empire continues to unfold after a hedge fund was declared in default on over $36 million in loans. orthogonal trading says it has

been severely impacted by the ftx collapse and is unable to pay a $10 million crypto loan. that prompted the entity that runs the lending pool on d5 protocol to issue a notice of default for all of the funds active borrowings. cristina fernandez de kirchner was found guilty of fraud charges and sentenced to six years in prison by a federal court. the ruling comes less than 11 months before presidential elections, with her having hinted at a possible run. fernandez will not need to serve the term for the foreseeable future, given her immunity as vice president and head of the senate. the international air transport association expects the global airline industry to record its first post-pandemic profit next year. a travel rebound in the u.s. will offset the impact of ongoing covid restrictions. still, iata says profits will be less than 1/5 of what they were

in 2019. it sees the threat of recession as well as uncertainty over interest rates and will races as key risks. >> we are still forecasting global gdp in positive territory. clearly come a significant slowdown from where we were but our latest forecast has gdp at 1.3%. regionally, it clearly will make a difference. north american carriers have benefited from strong performance in domestic markets, which have largely been unaffected by the covid travel restrictions we have seen in other parts of the world. mandeep: global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: looking ahead to china's trade numbers. early indicators pointing to a steeper drop in the country's exports. correspondent anna curran joins

us now. we have seen more signs of cooling global demand. is this going to be reflected in the numbers? >> that is the expectation. looking for a sizable drop in both exports and imports. we had warnings -- new orders that particular manufacturing gauge captures smaller private export companies. south korea's trade numbers have given a warning for where china is heading. we are seeing a big dip in those volumes coming out of south korea as well and the global demand story is weighing on goods out of china. it is not just that demand is weakening, there's a lot of merchandise inventory already stocked up around the world. these department stores just don't need to buy as many goods as they would a year ago. the export story is expected to be week. the import side is also expected to be weekend that is going to reflect the massive covid zero situation in china with ongoing instructions and the impact it

is having. the feeling is that is why china is buying less material from overseas. we are looking for a soft number on china's trade data today. >> factories seem to be struggling when it comes to the dismantling of covid curbs. even within closed loop systems. >> this has been the big talking point of 2022. just how will china navigate covid zero and keep supply lines open? we saw disruption a few weeks ago to the apple plant. there is a broad view that china has somewhat navigated, or the shock to supply chains has not been what would one would have anticipated. there was concern over how china's lockdowns would -- global supply chains. and of course, there has been disruption but a lot of people think navigated better than expected. regardless, the expectation is

those restrictions will continue to ease coming even if slow and cautious. the apple plant is up and running again. key manufacturing hubs around china lends itself towards taking some pressure off supply chains. but of course, china's reopening remains an open question. it remains to be seen. shery: edna curran. coming up, a 20 basis point rise when the reserve bank of india meets later. it says it will be the end of the tightening cycle. 350 basis point moves. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> let's get you the latest when it comes to the trading action in asia this morning. the doom and gloom we saw ignited by the big u.s. banking chiefs is spreading. shery: that's right. that is the driving force between market sentiment today. we have seen the contract for nikkei futures in singapore come online and we are looking for losses in line with what we are already seeing. sydney also down .7%, 40 minutes into the trading day. this is something that came out

of what we heard from the u.s. bank chiefs overnight. goldman sachs warning about pay cuts on the horizon. job cuts as well. bank of america slowing the place -- pace of employee hiring and morgan stanley reducing its headcount jamie dimon on cnbc talking about the outlook for recession. trader starting to come to terms with whether equities have fully priced in recessionary risks on the horizon that is the outlook for equities, but let's look more across assets. we are seeing flows and some today haven bids the likes of the aussie tenure bid. declining four basis points, though a little weaker. flows into treasuries, the dollar and something also that did weigh on the outlook's em currencies. >> it is a catch-22 for ems. you talked about recession concerns in the u.s. continuing across developed economies.

at the same time, you have conflation -- inflation concerns. chile central bank holding rates steady at 11.25%. look at that rate hike. 11 consecutive hikes, but they have decided to hold given concerns about the economic downturn, global beginning economic outlook. at the same time, inflation at a three decade high. the president vowing to keep rates on hold at the two decade high until inflation is reined in. we have another central-bank decision in brazil tomorrow. we have seen them pause already, for that was an aggressive tightening cycle. they were hiking when even mexico was continuing to cut. we are expecting them to hold and we are expecting peru to hike for the 17th set -- 17th consecutive time. i talked about the catch-22 for

developing economies, there is also pressure continuing on other currencies, leading central banks to act. haidi: take a look at what has happened with the -- the huge move. the most against the dollar in 20 years for the korean yuan. our next gets next guest is looking at that, depending on which way the dollar goes. let's get more from galvin chia. let me start off on the yuan. the dynamics are interesting. even if we see broad-based dollar week is, will you maintain your short call? >> i think one thing that has been happening lately is once have been responding with large volatility to moves in the dollar. our view was to be more opportunistic. we are expecting the dollar to start easing off, losing steam going into next year.

once that dollar turn comes in, correspondingly the dollar and the bought -- should see some of the largest moves. it is in this phase provide we are seeing very low fiction in the mark, the short-term views about where the dollar is going to go. the response should be to play that, looking at currencies which have the highest sensitivity. in the asia space at least, that is clearly some centered around the korean yuan. haidi: the speed of the yuan rally has been interesting, which tells us that the sentiment lifted when it comes to reopening is broad-based. because it is not just equities, but also currency. now that we have gone past seven, is there going to be more

resistance, depending on how quickly reopening actually happens? >> that is a good question. it is not just tying -- not just china, but across all assets we see cross asset correlation with risk. particularly with china, the one thing we are starting to see is that the market sensitivity as well to the headlines of this incremental reopening is actually volatile as well. some days, this tends to spark huge moves and other days, mysteriously, you can suppressed moves. one thing is that initially in the early phase, earlier last week, markets were basically bearish. quickly we are starting to see more optimism priced in. rightly so. increasingly, the question should be number one, how fundamental is this to the economic outlook in china? right now it seems they are

laying groundwork as opposed to doing anything material that will allow peter confidence, consumer confidence and people movement. the second thing is how quickly will the barbie raised for additional positivity? as we get more headlines, we might start to see the market get more desensitized and start to think more about the actual path of reopening, which we still hold is something to focus on in q1. >> are you factoring in policymaker's comfort with the level of the you? were talking about how china trade with develop -- would disappoint november numbers. perhaps a weaker yuan is the way to go. >> that is partially right. so far, there is this assumption that the weaker currency, particularly against the trade-weighted basket, is going to be beneficial to exports in an environment where globally, x its amongst east asian nations

is coming down quickly. when we look at this stage, we have seen lots of intervention and management by the pboc against the dollar, but against a broad trade-weighted basket which ultimately matters for the trade numbers, the export and import numbers, we have not seen authorities, nor the pboc, actually voice that much displeasure. when it comes to the trade angle, the authorities have been pretty laissez-faire, pretty hands off. i do not think there is any reason for that to change in the coming months. in china, the main concern is covid zero. the transition in leadership. those policies. i think trade has been relegated to something they would be happy to let the market work its actions over. shery: we have the reserve bank

of india today. where does the indian rupee go from here? >> our expectations were a little more dovish. we are expecting 25 basis point hike. we are thinking -- i think the debate over 25 or 35 is academic. ultimately, this is going to be one of the last hikes in this part of the cycle, assuming inflation manages to stabilize. particularly with food prices looking a little less volatile from here. overall, that should provide short-term -- additional rate hikes should provide short-term relief for the rupee because the kerry angle in asia is attractive. that said, over the next year we are expecting the rupee to underperform because of persistent trade deficit and the

dynamics in the currency needing to adjust. haidi: galvin chia, great to have you with us. strategist at natwest markets. south korean debt crisis has become a cautionary tale. what lessons does south korean policymakers learn? kathleen hays traveled there to find out. >> legoland korea, 70 miles east of seoul bank, built with government backing. part of a plan to create new businesses and jobs in a region where old industries like mining and farming have disappeared. once saddled with debt from the winter olympics years ago, one of the provinces hardest hit by the pandemic as virus outbreaks cap tourists away. >> legoland is attracting tourists and guests into the city. the noise will go away eventually wants to place attract more people and contributes to the local

economy. >> instant timber, the province was thrust into the limelight and it decided not to meet an obligation to repay the loan to finance the construction of a theme park, triggering the most severe credit meltdown since 2009. swift action by the government helped stabilize selloff. officials continue to watch for faultlines, especially in the beleaguered housing market. >> efforts to mitigate the rising of housing price. [indiscernible] we want to stop lending the housing price creeping in the housing market. >> the finance ministry and bank of korea took further steps to shore up the market, announcing new measures on the same day korea reported its biggest monthly drop in housing prices in nearly a decade >> i don't

think -- decade. >> i do not think it will be a contagion situation like 1990's. but i think the elements are very similar in other geographies. i think -- by the tightening cycle. >> none of the shockwaves sent by one debt default. the questions are being asked, are there bigger lessons for policymakers and the rest of the world? >> it is a good lesson. korea case shows that one small policy mistake and have a large market impact, given uncertainties. one small policy mistake can jeopardize a whole economy. >> the future of other projects may remain uncertain until investor confidence is restored.

>> a quick check of business headlines. byd looking to get into the lithium business in latin america and africa after material prices surge. the company says it is scouring the world for lithium supplies and looks to process raw materials in chile. they are also looking to invest in africa. credit suisse trying to entice

rich clients with high-yield loans and bonus deposit rates. the move is part of efforts to quickly recoup as much as possible of the almost $90 billion recently pulled from the bank. sources tell us it includes a threshold on balances and an interest rate of 5%. vietnamese electric car maker filed for an ipo in the u.s. as it prepares to deliver its first suv's to california later. the shares will trade under the symbol vfs on the nasdaq market. there were no details on the fundraising size or possible listing date. shery: these are stocks we are watching. banks and other financial firms in focus. wall street banks fell plenty. warnings of economic recession on our radar. mitsubishi you commit mitsubishi and -- -- returned to pre-pandemic

earnings. we will keep an eye on these japan airlines. coming up, we talk with the head of asia research who anticipates china's rebound to be broad-based, but he is not actually bullish on commodities. plus, anz economist for his forecast for china as policymakers turn their attention to rescuing the domestic economy. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> counting down to asia's major market opens. new headlines on bloomberg right now. country garden to raise 4.8 one billion hong kong dollars. 1.70 million shares at 2.7 hong kong dollars each. we expected these kung fu bonds to gain cash generated by the potential of 517 million dollars of shared placements. it would be the third after the company already raised $860 million since july. we have another share placement by country garden. annabelle: we have the open in japan and korea. we are watching the 10 year yield very closely.

given the inflows we had in the session after warnings that came through from wall street. goldman sachs talking about job and pay cuts. morgan stanley reducing its had -- reducing its headcount. jamie dimon talking to cnbc about the risks of a mild to recession next year. in terms of that, more traders turning to those havens. the yen trading like this against the greenback. japanese stocks down at the start. unsurprising given those moves we have seen on wall street with the s&p 500 closing the red for a fourth session. the change to what we are seeing in korea. given those losses we have in the part stack, at the outset outpacing losses for the water cause be. this is surprising given the losses in the u.s. session and to these are the make a stocks the likes of apple and microsoft. both slumping. nasdaq closing down more than 2%

although we see futures stabilizing a little bit. keeping a close eye on the korean yuan because it did lead losses in the asian emfx space. down as much as 2% or more against the dollar. the change to australia. one hour into the session. we are again in the red. what is leading that is what we see in the energy space. again, unsurprising given the moves we saw in energy overnight. wti a little higher as you can see, but still be have erased all the losses of the year. we had an interview with ed morris of citigroup and he told us traders are fleeing the market because of the absurd price actions. haidi: some of that price action might continue to be volatile, depending on what we see out of china reopening. we had those latest numbers from beijing and shanghai when it comes to covid as well.

continuing to see that build up it comes to cases in beijing. another 4000 cases reported their and a few hundred out of shanghai as well. our next guest says the -- is broad-based. not just equities, but high-yield bonds. we have seen that breakthrough on the you want as well. that means hong kong has much more to go. mark matthews, julius baer. so much of this depends on the pace of reopening into the consistency of reopening. perhaps this time next year when we expect to see the economy fully reopen at some point next year. is this going to be a straight arrow when it comes to the markets? >> it probably won't. the general trend is up. i think that is undeniable with the hong kong index. to your point, it is not a consistent opening. it is not a coordinated opening.

so far, they have not backed down. today they might announce 10 new measures to complement the 20 they announced in november. the easing measures. i think they are serious. i do not think they are going to stop. it's the -- i will never see again in our lives and now it is back at 0.8. i do not think it should be below one because prior to 2019, and this is an index that goes back to the 1960's, it never got below one. in between .8 and one is another 20%. i think that is where it is going. haidi: we continue to look at data points. we are expecting to see exports and imports seeing weakness from demand-side issues. the economic fundamentals of china, even if we get past covid zero, are challenging at best. where do you see the

opportunities that can withstand the amount of resilience required to get through some of these other challenges from the properties sector to the demographics we are looking at? >> all of those are valid points. i am not making the case for structural growth, i am making the case for value. below one times for assets of the quality that the members of the hang seng index have is too low. there's a lot of stocks in hong kong where the price-earnings ratio is numerically lower than the dividend yield. basically all of the banks, the telcos and energy companies you are looking at, pes of between five to 10 times, but dividends of 10 to 15 -- 10% to 15%. peter lynch used to say that if you could ever find a company whose price-earnings ratio was lower than its dividend yield,

you should buy because it should not be that way. haidi: yet you are now bullish on commodities despite the fact you are bullish on china. why the discrepancy? >> once again because the china call is a value call. it is not predicated on the economy getting better. it is predicated on the fact that they have decided to open up in this is an incredibly deep discount. commodities, we simply see a lot of supply of commodities around the world. not so much we think the economy is going into recession. as a matter of fact, our models suggest only 35% chance of recession in the united states next year. but we are also looking for .05% gdp growth. if you combine that relatively, there will not be tons of demand

with gdp growth like that. at the same time, we see a vigorous supply response in the energy commodities in particular. that is why we do not feel very excited. shery: we have heard plenty of gloomy outlooks when it comes to the u.s. from banking ceos today. what are your expectations of how asia will perform relative to the u.s. economy and the opportunities that represents? >> i think this could be a year of outperformance for asia. 2023. because the dollar is clearly broken down. we see that is continuing. the european central bank is going to raise rates more than the fed next year. we think the backdrop for the european economy will be more conveyors -- more conducive in part because of the lower energy

prices i've mentioned. two thirds of the dollar index is the euro and if the dollar goes down, that traditionally has been good for asian markets, which are with a couple of exceptions like india, very cheap. as long as the u.s. does not go into some terrible recession, even just a mild recession, that is enough for the s&p to go sideways. and then people look for greener pastures elsewhere. haidi: when it comes to recession risk of my want to get your views on our question of the day. which assets are underpricing the risk of a even a mild risk or risk of mild recession? you can see that pricing in the inverted treasuries curve and a bit in the 7% decline from the cyclical peak for the u.s. dollar. is there more vulnerability when it comes to risk assets?

>> the s&p is down 17% so far this year and the nasdaq is down 30%. i do not think stocks have mispriced what is going on. i think those reflect mild recession, which i do not think we are going to get. down 30% for the nasdaq in my mind reflects mild recession. we priced it in already and bonds have fallen relative to their history by an even greater magnitude. i do not think there is a lot out there that is mispriced. the market has been fairly efficient and a see more things that are undervalued than overvalued. haidi: mark matthews, julius baer with his calls on the markets. let's get to su keenan with headlines. su: we started with the fallout from sam bankman-fried's crypto empire, continuing to unfold after a hedge fund declared to default on $36 million of loans.

the fund says it has been severely impacted by the ftx collapse and is unable to pay a 10 million other crypto loan. that prompted the entity that runs the lending pool, maple, to issue a notice of default for all the funds active borrowings. russia considering sending a right -- setting a price floor for international oil sales in response to the price cap. officials say moscow is considering either imposing a fixed-price or discounts to international benchmarks. there is no visibility yet on what the precise level might be. the u.s. is sticking with its north korea policy, focusing on deterrence and stronger ties with allies despite pyongyang's record number of missile tests this year. the white house says its policy on north korea has been effective and prudent. last week, the u.s. revealed new

sanctions and says it is using all available tools to get pyongyang back to the negotiating table. xi jinping is expected to arrive in saudi arabia for a regional summit. the kingdom's state news agency says beijing and riyadh will sign more than 20 deals worth $29 billion. energy and infrastructure will top the agenda. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. >> a bit of a rebound in energy prices in the asian session. haidi: a bit of stabilization coming through for oil, but it still has been a gloomy session over the past few ones. given we have seen wti erasing all of its losses for the year. lots of concerns around demand multiplying given what beard from u.s. bank chiefs.

we are seeing some of the big energy companies in korea and japan at the outset of trading because we are just over 10 minutes into the -- into the day for japan. korea energy stocks leading. let's change because there are other stocks moving today these are ones around lg electronics. lg companies down to apple. what we heard in a bloomberg exclusive is they have scaled back for their self-driving car. they have also delayed its debut until 2026. this project is called titan. we are being told that basically it has been in limbo for months because people inside the company have been grappling with their vision for the car without steering wheels or petals. it is basically not feasible with current technology. >> still ahead, potential market

moving to set to highlight the covid restrictions. what they have done to the country's economy. we look at the both demand and supply side. a preview with economist raymond yeung is coming up. morgan stanley set to cut jobs as big banks warn of a global slowdown. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> competition for talent is still strong. >> it is a strong market and we are seeing growth. >> we -- commercial banking, new financial advisors, private bankers. >> there is a lot of noise about the economy. we feel good. >> we have bumpy times ahead. >> the consumer is holding up well.

>> spending is up. >> if we head into a sustained recession, and i think we will, we could see a recession in 2023 also if we have to make tough decisions. >> you have got to prepare. >> executive speaking on the sidelines of the financial services conference in new york as banks exercise caution, bracing for potential slowdown and what they see is a likely recession. let's bring in russell. usually, markets have taken bad economic news in stride. this time, investors seem spooked. what stood out to you? >> yes, this was a big reality check for markets, which have been reasonably mystic, or shown signs of optimism. the bankers here hit the big theme for 2023, will the u.s. see recession? what will that look like?

we saw a wave of comments from the ceos. we had solomon warning of bumpy times ahead. his outlook is more pessimistic than some economists at his firm. brian moynihan saying the firm is sloping hiring ahead of potential contraction. jamie dimon saying there is risk of a mild heart recession. the market took these messages to heart, knowing that wall street banks have better visibility than most people on the outlook for economy, companies and consumers. they took this to heart at that is why we saw the market react as it did. >> -- saying -- 1600 job cuts. how much cost cutting are we expecting from bonuses as well as jobs? what is in the pipeline already?

>> morgan stanley reporting overnight that they are cutting 2% of their payrolls globally. that is about 1600 positions. having said that, morgan stanley did a lot of hiring over the pandemic payrolls from 60,000 to 80,000. in their context, that is not large. but then we have goldman sachs' simon saying bonuses will be smaller. brian moynihan of bank of america took a slightly softer tack, just saying they are slowing hiring. they are still hiring and private banking but the tone has changed. there was a big talent war, there were big bonuses, but that seems to be over. we reported earlier in the week that j.p. morgan, citigroup and others are cutting payrolls. we know that investment banking has been in a slump for some time.

solomon said that market activity has not picked up like he would have liked. that is another reason why the bonus outlook is looking pretty grim. >> russell ward with details. we spoke about bank of america, brian moynihan saying it is seeing signs of consumer week this. starting to slow. the chairman and chief executive told bloomberg it may take a few more months to see if hikes are working. >> the rights were high, then they came down. that was based on consumption. what you see in our deposit balances is a year-over-year they are up 10% for median income households. and down, they are still up. they were at a level, they went up in april after tax returns and they have been flat, now they are going down.

that is glass half-full, half-empty. the individual is starting to consume more money. that is good for the question of whether the fed actions are slowing the economy and is it time to think about when to stop. that debate is raging every day. the evidence shows that the economy is being slowed by higher interest rates and the fact that inflation has eaten up more of a person's savings. that means higher interest rates, but you are seeing them slowdown, that is going to be the debate. we need a few more months to see if it is a trend or not. >> brian moynihan. you can get a round up of the stories you need to know to get your dado -- your day going. also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere half. customize your settings so you only get the news you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> voters in georgia set to decide whether to san rafael warnock back to washington versus herschel walker. the election will determine whether democrats win a 51st seat in the senate. joe mathieu. where are we now with the race? has georgia finally become a battleground state? >> that is a great question. i am not sure we can answer that. some have suggested georgia may be turning purple. i will remind you, republicans won every statewide race a month ago, except the one that has come to a runoff here tonight. polls just closed moments ago and for counting begins now. it is just a question of how long. this is a very close race.

raphael warnock did win with 37,000 additional let's one month ago, tonight we do this over again. if it is too close, it will either go late or will end in a recount. >> what does this potentially tell as ahead of the bigger races we have going into the future? does that 51st seat meaningfully increase the majority? does it have implications in the senate? >> it does have specific implications. if you are a democrat and you get this extra seat, it means a couple of things. number one, you don't have to worry about joe manchin going against the grain and were wiring you to vote with republicans. it would also give democrats control of the committees, as opposed to a power-sharing arrangement like they have now with republicans. that greases the skids on

legislation and would help democrats get judges approved, and other nominations. this is the senate we are talking about, so that extra layer would be great breathing room for democrats if they can keep the seat. if it goes to herschel walker, we have a 50-50 split and kamala harris will spend more time breaking ties. >> how will this race affect to the influence of former president trump going into 2024? >> he could use a win now. he was being called a three-time loser by ken griffin during the general election. he essentially handpicked herschel walker for the job, but he has not been in georgia, he has not been on stage with walker, as there has been a shadow effect with donald trump not exactly helping candidates win. especially in georgia where he

has a complicated relationship with the state republican party. if herschel walker does win, you had better believe donald trump will be sending out messages taking credit for it in that mate -- that might help reset the conversation for him. the news of late has not been good for trump, given this verdict in new york. haidi: the campaign spending aspect has been astronomical. do we see this often? the demographic changes that really turn a state like this? >> that is a big question. it is not often we see something like this. georgia has become a microcosm, but the money is important. raphael warnock had three times as much money than herschel walker and spent twice as much. that money goes a long way to getting people to turn out. that is what the story has been today. despite the murky weather, both

campaigns are trying to drive people to the polls for same-day voting, knowing they set records for early voting with -- which led both parties to worry voters were complacent. nearly 2 million people voted before today. we will be looking at closely where the votes came from, which jurisdictions and what they will mean for both candidates. we are hoping to get a call tonight, but it could take until tomorrow. haidi: joe mathieu in atlanta. polls closed at 7:00 p.m. local time with a lot of early voting already in we will get you results as soon as they cross. business flash headlines, apple scaled-back self driving plans for future electric vehicles and postponed its target launch by a year. sources tell bloomberg a fully autonomous vehicle is not feasible with current technology. apple is planning on a less ambitious design for use only on highways.

chinese byd looking to get into the lithium business after material prices surged. the company says it is scouring wealth of lithium surprised -- also looking to invest in africa. meta-shares fell tuesday following a wall street journal report on privacy regulators at the eu, ruling the facebook owner should not work higher users to agree to personalized ad space. such ruling could limit the data the company could have access to sell. meta is down 64% this year. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> let's get you those third

quarter australian gdp numbers. we are expecting to see the reflection of higher rates and rising inflation crimp numbers. .6% quarter on quarter, shy of expectations when it comes to .7% the quarter on quarter gauge from economists on the year on your number. 5.9% year on year. much less than the 6.7 -- 6.3% gain we were expecting for that year on your number this as we see the third quarter savings ratio coming in at 6.9% as well. a lot of this is tied up with what we see is a slowdown in the properties market significant declines on property values, particularly major cities. a lot of that is tied up with household wealth and sentiment. retail and consumer sentiment. we see that slowing in the third quarter gdp number looking backwards. but we know the rba is giving a little bit of breathing space

for the economy for the lag effect of the smaller rate hike of 25 basis points. household sit -- spending rising 1.1% quarter on quarter, suggesting in the third quarter we see that slightly elevated level of household spending when it comes to these numbers. gdp both on a yearly basis and a quarter on your basis missing broader expert nations. let's take a look at how all of this and the downside handover we had from the u.s. doom and gloom from the u.s. banking chiefs didn't help matters either. >> kicking off with the reaction in the bond space to those aussie gdp numbers. a general flattening across the curve, but you can see the move on the 10 year yield down four bases weights, a reflection of the doom and gloom outlook for recession that is building because we did hear from more bank cheese on wall street overnight, the likes of goldman

sachs warning about pay cuts and job cuts. morgan stanley reducing its workforce. bank of america slowing the hiring pace as well, then jamie dimon warning about risks of a mild to severe, or rather hard recession next year. the moves, we did see the trend back into treasuries. that is playing out across the board in asia today, particularly in the equities space. just over half an hour into the session for japan and korea and we are seeing the brunt of that led by what we are seeing in energy. even though we are seeing wti stabilize, it still has erased all of its losses year to date. we had seen more dollar strength coming back in. again, it is looking fairly mixed. we are seeing the most pronounced losses here on the south korean yuan, which yesterday dropped by more than 2%. shery: let's stay in south korea

because the debt crisis has become a cautionary tale the era of easy money and spirit what lessons to south korean policymakers and the government learn? kathleen hays found out. >> legoland korea. 70 miles east of soul, -- sew -- part of a plan to create new businesses and jobs in a region where mining and farming have gradually disappeared. once saddled with debt from the winter liv-ex four years ago, one of the provinces hardest hit as virus outbreaks cap tourists away. >> legoland is attracting tourists and guests. the latest noise will go away eventually wants the place attracts more pull any tribute a lot of the local immunity and economy. >> in september, this province was thrust into the limelight when it decided not to meet an obligation to repay the loan.

triggering the most severe credit market meltdown since 2009. swift action helped stabilize the selloff. officials continue to watch for faultlines, especially in the beleaguered housing market. >> the permit maybe not aware just to mitigated the housing price. [indiscernible] >> the finance ministry and bank of korea took further steps to shore up the housing market announcing new measures on the same day korea reported its biggest play drop in housing prices in a decade. >> i do not think it will be a contagion situation, like the old crisis in the 1990's. but i think the elements are

very similar in other geographies. i think that these type of events are -- cycle. >> one of the shock waves sent by one debt default started to die down. the question is being asked, are there bigger lessons for korean policymakers and the rest of the world? >> there is a lesson. korea and the u.k. in the last month shows that one small policy mistake can have a large market impact. one small policy mistake can really jeopardize a whole economy. >> the future of other government finance projects may remain uncertain until investor confidence is restored >> let's get to su keenan with headlines. su: thanks on wall street, morgan stanley will reduce its

global workforce by 2% as wall street prepares for a potential u.s. recession. bloomberg has learned the cuts amount to roughly 1600 employees. the bank had over 80,000 workers by the end of the third order compared to about 60,000 pandemic. goldman sachs and bank of america also warned of hiring slowdowns. donald trump's company found guilty of engaging in a tax fraud for more than a decade. during the trial, prosecutors showed that trump executives often disguised holiday bonuses as consulting fees. it is the first time a trump business has been convicted of criminal conduct and comes as the former president runs for a second term. argentinian vice president cristina fernandez de kirchner found guilty of fraud and sentenced to six years in prison by a federal court. the ruling comes less than 11 months before presidential

elections, with her having hinted at a run. fernandez will not need to serve the term for the foreseeable future, given her immunity as vice president and head of the senate keeps her outside jail the international expects the global airline industry to record its first post-pandemic profit next year. iata says a travel rebound in the u.s. will offset the active ongoing covid restrictions in china. still, iata says profits will be less than 1/5 of what they were in 2019 and sees the threat of recession as well as uncertainty over oil prices as key risks. >> we are still forecasting global gdp in positive territory. clearly a significant slowdown from where we were, but our latest forecast has gdp at 1.3%. regionally, it clearly will make a difference. the north american carriers have

benefited from a very strong immense in domestic markets which have largely been unaffected by covid travel restrictions we have seen in other parts of the world. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- su: global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. >> next, china's economy as we are rate -- as we await is bloomberg.

>> we are expecting china's trade data later. covid zero restrictions at home. imports and exports likely contract further in november. let's bring in raymond yeung. good to have you with us. how much pressure should we be expecting on these numbers? >> we are looking at a contraction of the trade number. we are seeing a -- 3% last month. that has been extending some of the poor performance in recent months partly because of supply chain disruptions, but more to do with a recessionary global demand.

i think this trade number will continue to extend performance over the next few months until may be middle of next year. then we will find your on your comparisons to the exported number back to. >> how trade dependent is the overall chinese economy still? can the reopening we are expecting help offset some of that weakness? >> that is exactly why chinese leaders starting to be more concerned. they know that they cannot count on external demand and to the situation with the global economy becoming more uncertain. they are willing to reopen and allow more social activities in order to support domestic demand. of course, we do see reopening is a bumpy ride.

case numbers increase. but we expect because of the fourth quarter mixed year gdp will probably be going back to -- 5.4%. i believe the chinese government will also set a relatively high growth target at 5% to 5.5%. we know that -- overall growth. even with reopening, the situational improvement will be gradual. haidi: when you look at trade volumes that are basically flatlined, as you can see here and through the shanghai port data, another indicator to look at. all of this is happening despite the fact we have had for a prolonged period a weaker currency. we are now dealing with a much stronger chinese yuan. does that just created another hurdle to improvement on the

trade front? >> i think that the trade number is less impacted by how strong the -- is and more to do with supply chain. we know to some extent, the -- national companies and contract manufacturers explore the possibility to diversify the production phase, especially after shanghai lockdowns. that has got to be helping other regional economies such as indonesia. i think the chinese policymakers intention to room -- to maintain a stable currency. they don't want to be too weak and they do not want to be too strong. these extension rating policies will -- and the thing about china is that it is a -- global demand energy. we currency and week -- is not going to be helpful.

>> even if the twin drags of property slowdown and covid zero are resolved, how much pressure do you expect to see when it comes to the fiscal picture? particularly for local governments? the drag on property is not going to be so easily resolved. >> absolutely. the outlook is very difficult for next year, even with some public policy. to some extent, that is only providing a -- financial -- support the builders and make sure they are able to deliver existing projects. [indiscernible] but at the same time, we have seen mortgage rate cuts have not been able to force demand. our biggest worry is whether there is some expectation changed by the household outlook. i think this is something the

government really needs to -- as long as the overall policies and housing are not -- and we are under the slogan of common prosperity. [indiscernible] haidi: raymond yeung can achieve greater china economists. the risk in chinese markets roosting the yuan while fueling the biggest slump in years for corporate debt. -- joins us with more. tell us about the dramatic credit market selloff in china. what we are seeing is this broader risk on across almost all asset classes for chinese assets at the moment. >> it is really a big shift of risk appetite towards chinese risk assets in china and selling the safer assets in china in the meantime.

the stubborn bond market and credit market are both victims of such momentous shift in risk appetites. you guys are talking about how the reopening has been driving a big rally in chinese stocks. the csi 300 has rallied 13% from an october low. investors really couldn't sell bonds fast enough to buy equities. that is a story about risk appetite rather than credit risk. shery: what can we look for in terms of companies looking to issue bonds? >> we are seeing a noticeable impact in the local bond financing market. for companies that have already pulled about $8.5 billion of their plans to sell local bonds in november alone. i think that was five times the number a year ago. this is deftly not great for corporate bond skills, but at

the same time, those companies that are able to issue aaa rated bonds can actually get anchor financing and do other type of finances. that really adds to the credit stress for onshore markets in the onshore borrowing cost, despite the recent rally, is still much lower than offshore markets. >> bloomberg's asia stocks editor with her take on the chinese markets. we look forward to the open. indonesia has passed a controversial law banning sex outside marriage and restricting lgbtq rights. we flesh out the key points next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> here's a quick check of the latest headlines. warner bros. discovery will once again sell hbo max through amazon prime. amazon customers will be able to sign up and watch programs within amazon main service. the ceo is hoping the reversal will lure millions of subscribers. credit suisse bankers are set to be trying to entice rich clients with higher yield notes and bonus deposit rates. the move is part of efforts to quickly recoup as much as

possible. almost $90 billion recently pulled from the bank sources tell us they include an interest rate of 5% to 6%. vietnamese electric carmaker filed for an ipo in the u.s. as pairs to deliver its first suvs to california customers later this month. the shares will trade under the symbol vfs on the nasdaq global subject market. no word of a possible listing date. >> let's look at the state of trading in asia. we continue to see the impact of some comments from big u.s. banking chiefs overnight about the risk for u.s. recession cuts when it comes to bonuses and hiring. all of this weighing across this region as well. japan down .7%. the yuan weakness has dominated fx trading, particularly in emerging markets.

in australia, a mixed picture. the broader market down .8%, but gains in materials and utilities ahead of china trade. you're expected to see further downside for both domestic and external demand. kiwi stocks have come off their session lows, trading flat at the moment. we are getting more when it comes to what we heard from the big u.s. banking chiefs. david solomon is expecting some bumpy times ahead, warning of smaller bonuses or potential job cuts. he was speaking exclusively to bloomberg on the sidelines of the goldman sachs financial services conference in new york. >> it should not be surprising to people watching the performance of the business this year that 2021 was an exceptional year. a record year for the firm. highest revenue ever. 2022 was different. naturally, compensation would be lower. we are still early in the

process of making those decisions but like every year, we will pay people based on the overall performance of the firm. especially for senior people, we consider the overall performance of the firm as we go through our mentation process. >> this year you reintroduced the natural calling of headcount. the bonus discussion. it is not just your, it is everywhere. how you balance that with the story we saw a year ago? this talent war? this booming market and what is happening this year going into tougher times? how do you balance retention with more difficult conversations? >> we take a long-term view with everything we do. you have to adjust to the environment, so you make changes around the margin. at the same point, you take a long-term view and try to think about your business over time. we are focused on serving clients and core businesses. clients have back. it is important for us to strike a balance in protecting our

franchise and making sure our people are paid. on the other hand, it tougher environment broadly. performance is not as strong, so we balance that. people take a long-term view. >> david solomon there speaking exclusively to sonali basak. indonesian lawmakers have passed a contentious criminal code that outlaws extramarital sex and raises penalties on abortion. for more, -- there are huge ramifications first free speech and human rights as well as a threat to foreign investment. it is a contentious criminal code. >> it is. very contentious. so contentious that in 20 when parliament introduced the bill, there were violent protests for days among thousands of workers and university students. why it is so contentious is that the new penal code is seen as

interfering in the private lives of indonesians and is also seen as having the potential to kurt dissent. it penalizes extramarital sex. jail up to one year. it also penalizes people for insulting the president and vice president as well as the government, including -- agencies. it punted -- it punishes women for abortions. it punishes women -- people for insulting islam. that is what makes it contentious. despite the criticisms, despite the government saying it has gotten feedback from the different rights groups, the irony is that is -- it is actually pushing ahead with sweeping controversial laws. >> what are the implications for the lgbtq community?

>> the key thing for the lgbtq community is that they are already marginalized in indonesia. indonesians do not embrace homosexuals. it is one of the least a friendly contrast in the world. what happens with the extramarital sex legal provision is that critics fear it could be used for crack down further on the homosexual or transgender community. >> thank you for that report. joining us with the latest. coming up, the rollout of the world's first inhale vaccine. this is bloomberg. ♪

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