>> inflation is too high. i will contend that this kind inflation battle is not a one-off. >> the likelihood of a soft landing is quite low. >> the idea that we are going to have a soft landing means so much of the data will be historically unique. >> no one is placing big bets that we see a miraculous second-half rally but that is the sentiment. >> this is going to be a choppy ride. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" jonathan ferro,

tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance". alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan aero. another day of losses. warning after warning. tom: i think we begin a 10 day week. it begins today to get out to the fed meeting today, next week and beyond. what i see on the screen summing it up as one large recession call. equities, bonds, currencies and commodities, it is about the modeling of recession. jonathan: to be morgan's jamie thomas speaking yesterday and said a mild to hard recession is something we could face in 2023. brammo, crude negative. can we sit on that for a moment? oil is negative in 2022. continue make sense of that? lisa: you are just trying to

wind me up. i know this. you know how i feel about this. it does not make any sense to me because we are seeing china potentially reopen. we are seeing data coming in and accelerating more quickly than people expected. even if we get that recession, it is not there yet so wise oil the lowest in about -- so why is oil the lowest in about a year. tom: mr. varona here in moment anticipated to say. i do not know what to make of it. other than oil reverts back up to where many people feel comfortable at at $100 but that is a long way away. jonathan: equity markets. down about zero point 2% on the s&p 500. we have had losses every single day since the day after chairman powell spoke. we have taken out the brookings

gains. back to where we were before chairman stopped us chairman powell spoke last week. tom: you mentioned the economist james dimon, the economist mr. donovan. he is opposite of his boss. the spread here is like energy stocks and crude oil. there is a nonconsent his call. basically he is saying everybody calmed down, there will be disinflation and just the probability of recession is to the optimist side. jonathan: he is trying to cause trouble downtown. tom: i am. i know you watch every morning. jonathan:. going to break because some of these comments. we got a ton in the last 24. lisa: the question is how much are they laying the groundwork.

we did not talk about morgan stanley laying off about 2% of their workforce. that might be underpinning the tenor of these conversations. bank of canada rate decisions, it has been a leading indicator of how other central banks are going to move. the expectation is for a 25-30 basis point hike. it can indicate they are starting to get to the end of the cycle. rising to the highest level since 2008. 10:30 a.m. banham -- how much are inventories low? does this give any pictures as to why oil prices are so low? if inventory is low, that means oil is low. if demand picks up, there will be a increase. this is what i do not understand.

i am not understanding the fundamentals in how preston makes work on that. i'm sure i will get a love-hate mail. how much are people borrowing at this point heading into more difficult. with respect to disposable income -- difficult periods with respect to disposable income? jonathan: and do not believe that anyone since lease -- sends lisa hate mail. tom: lisa gets the love notes. jonathan: that is what i thought too. who would send her hate mill? that is a disgrace. chris, you know how i am going to frame this question. crude is down on the year, energy equities are of more than 50% on the year. what is going on? >> that is also after being up 60% or 70% last year.

the two-year turn on crude is certainly not what we have seen out of the equities. i would make two quick points. let's disassociate the spot. we have seen new lows over the last week or so. forward curve is not real lows. i think there is a realization as you go to where the out months that there are structural deficiencies reflected there. as oil has come down from roughly highs in february to where it presently trades today, energy sector credit has not weekend. that is such an important difference from 2014 or 25th team. when crude was under pressure, the markets were deteriorating. i think the market is suggesting maybe it is not the energy stocks but the price of oil. i think it is interesting how the question is always phrase of

do energy stocks have to cast down with oil, not does oil need to catch up with the energy. tom: lets go cta right now. looking at early terminal of west texas intermediate or grim. they hike it that hearken back to earl blumenthal. it is a grim start. how do you know want to get on board crude oil? >> i would encourage to take a step back and look at the 10 year chart or the two-year term. there is so much support. somewhere between 75 and 65. we are kind of right between their prey and on a weekly basis, we are borderline oversold. ultimately, this will bottom for the next several years. the move has been from $130 into

$70. i think if one is getting on board now with the call, they are late. tom: did you do this did he just say load the boat on oil? >> what i will add to this discussion is what i am perplexed by. there is a persistent narrative of peak inflation. but look at the performance of some of these basic resource stocks over the last month or two. things like rio, chp and glencore. the stocks that were largely on the map have really woken up. there is something going on there that is in contradiction to the narrative of peak inflation. lisa: are you saying the market is wrong and this is something to lean against and there actually could be a broader point that people have brought into a recession story so much that they are in -- ignoring

fundamental data? into a least in the short term if nothing long-term. >> i am not suggesting the market is wrong. i am offering the consensus might be missing clues the market is dropping to us. i will highlight three of them. number one, these big, basic resource things have woken up. number two, chinese 10 year yields have been falling for 10 years and have stopped going down. third, really important, gold is waking up. there is something going on here. we talk about what's is the next car the dealer will reveal? there are three of them. jonathan: rio up 23%. bhp up almost 25%. chris, i am seeing the same things you are. those had a big rally. what do you make of what you are

hearing about the china reopening? just a long list of easing recommendations from authorities this morning. what is your take on it all? >> i make a couple observations. i would say that the move in chinese yields over the last 6-8 weeks is significant. we have seen data the chinese are selling bonds to buy gold. i think that is certainly relevant. as far as the proclivity among investors is, when they get the sense that china wants to reopen, i would fight the temptation to go back to the old china stocks. i think the message is rio, bhp, glencore. that is where i think money can be made in some form of a china reopening. jonathan: wonderful to catch up. chris verrone. i think we need to ask a

question. are chinese authorities about to drop covid zero or are they just making these restrictions were applicable after the -- more playable after the protest? be precise in high-risk areas limiting them to residential blocks or refraining from extending them at will to an entire housing compound, neighborhood or street. that does not feel like let's drop covid zero but let's make this more harsh and palatable for people. lisa: especially when you look at other signs of business activity that are not picking up quickly, how much is this actually relaxing? there was also a company that reached out to the actually provided the chinese communist party with bottles. they say they could actually freeze this winter if they open up right now. jonathan: and any terms of a

stop start, stop start, stop start. we have seen this in the u.k. repeatedly. tom: they were wrapped around science and there was a big slick here. in america, older people were vaccinated but in china, it is the opposite so you have a hugely vulnerable public. the efficacy of the vaccine to me is front and center. i wonder if we can provide leadership to help them help themselves. jonathan: it is the markets jumped to anticipate and all of that but we are breaking down information. tom: as i said it was a quiet week. jonathan: it was meant to be. this schedule is busy. cpi next week. tom: tom: can we set up a soccer goal in the bigger rooms you can teach us how to take penalties? jonathan: so we get a

professional here? a goalpost. tom: how hard is it to do penalty kicks? jonathan: the spanish made it look difficult yesterday. the worst penalties i have ever seen. from new york city this morning, good morning to you. this is bloomberg. lisa: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. income it democrat senator -- incumbent democrat senator raphael warnock defeated republican herschel walker with a little more than 51% of the vote. he had been -- herschel walker had been handpicked by donald trump. this will allow democrats to hold the majority in the senate with 51 seats. in china, it is a major shift from covid zero. beijing eased restrictions. they allow some people to quarantine at home and set in centralized camps. also they have scrapped virus

test to enter most public venues. in germany, more than 3000 law enforcement officials conducted raids aimed at breaking up a coup attempt. they detained 25 people linked to a far-right terror cell group that wants to overthrow the government. it is the biggest ever raid targeting right-wing extremists in germany. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and on "bloomberg quicktake", powered by more than 2700 different journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i feel that right now things are going the wrong direction.

we are entering a recession in most of our economies, starting with k and the eurozone. also the u.s. inflation is too high so we are entering site inflation like we have not seen since the 1970's. jonathan: the chairman and ceo of r.o.e. beanie -- of roubini. four days of losses on the s&p 500. the longest losing streak since early september. down about zero. 10 year yield going nowhere. 3.5331. the euro-dollar going nowhere. positive 0.2%. what a wild ride for wti. $73 this morning. down about 0.8%. we are negative for the year on wti which is just unbelievable.

tom: eia out with supply and demand tweaks. a major tweak is demand just has not come out. francisco blunts this year to give you perspective on $3.88 a gallon. this is an important conversation off the american radar. annmarie hordern will join us on georgia. maria tadeo in london over what happened in ukraine first. it was 90 miles from moscow yesterday. think in new york city, somewhere between east hampton and southhampton, there was an attack. it has completely changed. there is drone warfare. i do not think americans understand that this was in miles -- within miles of moscow. maria: you nailed it. the nature of this war has changed.

we talked about the idea that vladimir putin wants to break the will of the american people. the other fundamental issue is the drones. the drones going both ways. ukraine to russia and russia to the crane. i'm hearing from my context that today, europeans will debate to try to strip theme ability to -- strip the ability to take drones from russia. you nailed it. this is now an drone war. the nature of this war is changing. tom: the defenses here go to israel and what saudi arabia does with attacks from the south. can either party defend against drones? maria: if you talk about the full air defense systems that will essentially allow you in protecting to not be hit, that is not the case.

when you look at ukraine, they say they are successful. it is 77% though, not 100. that has been the issue throughout. they continue to hit the country but also the energy infrastructure. that is the problem is they do not have the time to fix, have it broken, and repair it again. they do not have 100% protection. lisa: this raises an issue going forward because the war is not ending. people wonder what this means for the energy backdrop a time when energy prices falling. at what point does the u.s. administration say it is time to start buying oil to stockpile the strategic petroleum reserve ahead of what could be a messy year next? annmarie: i think we are going to see how prices shake out the next 3-6 months but when you get to the wti in the $70 range, i

think that is when they will say it is time to replenish. that would be the opportune time, especially if they are concerned about what happens in the chair. the issue with the market right now is there are so many unknowns. we have china hinting and whispering about potential easing but these are very light touches. that is why there is a meaning -- a meeting with president xi jinping and mohammed solomon. crews want to know when we could potentially see demand. it is a demand picture. there are a number of other questions. we put to bed some of them in terms of next week with the russian oil cap. but what everyone is asking, european officials, u.s. officials, they want to know what happens next with russian products?

is there going to be a cap on these? lisa: there is a whole lot here, including the president xi jinping and saudi arabia ties. that trip is happening today. the democrats now have 51-49 in the senate. why not start buying now? if gas prices go up, it is not the same political liability in another two years. annmarie: it is a good question. maybe they will start praying but i imagine for the administration, especially when you have david solomon on tv saying it looks bumpy, they might wait and see if they can buy at a more opportune by -- price. this is a good place for them to be. but if oil prices are going to go lower, they are going to wait for as low as they can go. tom: time for is surveillance correction. yesterday around 3:30 afternoon,

i finally realized what young jonathan ferro told me for years. the camera came in. the smallness of a goal in a penalty shots. it is only 11 meters, 12 yards. i think a lot of idiots americans like me think you are shooting at this time performance goal and goooall and you are not. jonathan: if you missed the first shot, the goal gets even smaller as the stakes get higher. maria, time for some exclusive analysis. what's happened to spain yesterday? maria: this is very emotional for me. there are three things i want to say. first of all, in football like in life, you have to seal the deal. can pass the ball many times but if you do not score, you are

out. we need to learn that lesson. also i am tired of this conversation of is it madrid or arson alone is that -- barcelona that carries? when you play for spain, you play for spain. i want to say thank you because the amount of people that reached out to check on me and send me their love was incredible. on social media, and text messages, this joe surveillance has an incredible community. i am very grateful, humbled, but also grateful for the love. tom: please. it is very emotional. i did not contact her. [laughter] full disclosure, i did not reach out to maria tadeo. jonathan: deeply, deeply emotional. you were laughing through that.

annmarie: i am sorry. it is a little funny. i love maria and we are friends. but maria comes on television and goes out and says the score that they are going to win, 2-1. then she also had a date at the american team. i really love this young team. i sent an invite to maria to come watch the games with me. tom: everybody seems to hate fifa but was a success this has been. it is amazing. jonathan: the final four potentially. tom: bracket looks better than mine. jonathan: that remains to be seen. we have a final eight. let's wait to see with the final four shapes up to be. tom: saturday. are you going to join us? lisa: england and france. 10 and two. jonathan: did you not to get an invitation to the house of ferro

? lisa: you have to take your shoes off. if you didn't take your shoes off, you are going to judge. jonathan: maybe. [laughter] thank you maria. that was beautiful. emotional, deeply emotional. i have cried at many a game, shed many tears over the years. coming up, francisco hutch. lisa: just let that life. [laughter] tom: how about those yankees? lisa: silly deal. jonathan: futures negative, this is bloomberg. a. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone

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jonathan: there are three things i want to say -- tom: that was one of the single best moments in 22 years. jonathan: we need to lighten up on futbol. tom: what i witnessed with the tots, the way maria is foreign to americans was wonderful to see. jonathan: does mr. leavy note you call it the tots and is he happy about it? tom: i have them in my bracket

for the finals. argentina, spain and the tots. jonathan: equities right now look like this -- down a quarter of 1% on the s&p 500 with four days of losses and will week make it five, down on the nasdaq with yields yesterdays, twos, tens, negative 80 something basis points and we go deeper since 1981. right now, yields on the 10 year are unchanged and yields come back in a little bit by a couple of basis points. tom: talking about a possibility to a -100 basis that hasn't been seen since local times. we come to you today with a lot of humility. we know that oil is the toughest commodity to call. there is all sorts of academic research that shows that and

there was a huge political economic standpoint on hydrocarbons. bank of america joins us. you are the first one out that i knew that modeled $100 per barrel and you made global headlines and you were right and up we went and down we came on a dearth of demand. the technical analyst was just on and said the spot market for oil is behaving differently than the futures market for oil stop explain in greek what that means. >> you want me to use delta in the process? in plain english, we have essentially very low speculative interests. it's all the macro players that

have been selling oil on the back of recession fears so that comments you were just making before we went on to oil. we've seen a dearth of liquidity which is falling quickly in the forward markets. beyond that, the physical market has been relatively well supported but that's changing a bit as well because the supply disruption we were expecting on the back of the eu's actions has not really come through as expected and maybe we won't lose as much russian oil after all. tom: lisa abramowicz to put two kids for school and was speculating on oil when it went down to 02 years ago. are we going to get the same spring year, is there a possibility of seeing 70 west

texas intermediate become 95 or 100? >> i'm afraid so. i we have a very springy oil market. inventories remain quite low. if you look at the three key drivers of oil prices into next year, they are clearly whatever happens to opec plus russia, whatever happens to china reopening in this certain one being the fed pivot. the way you think about each one of those is you look at our 2023 numbers, the demand growth be forecast next year is coming from emerging markets with china being 50% of that and india being 20%. we need emerging markets to come back strong and it's still early and unclear how china will make a comeback.

it may be a different comeback than the one we saw in the u.s. and europe if the reopening is one of fits and starts partly because i think the chinese population is not really been much exposed to covid. we don't know have them broadly disseminated in most countries of the world. number two is russia/opec and how much oil do we lose from russia and how much oil does opec plus take out of the market. the third one is the fed tightening policy which at the moment, we have economies growing zero next year. if the fed funds rate go to six or 7%, that could become negative quickly. that's the reason oil prices have been falling in recent days. lisa: i know you have a target

of $100 for wti -- wti but how do we get there? >> the macro picture is pretty gloomy. that's part of the reason prices come down but i think it's a different environment to prior pullbacks and oil prices. we think there is a put that will be triggered. opec just had their meeting on sunday and decide to roll over the cuts. the announced cuts were to million dollar -- barrels per day. they will implement a deeper cut and we will seeoeti prices entering the range at which the u.s. prices will start refilling the strategic petroleum reserve.

the number put out by the white house was $72 per barrel so we are getting close to where we might see those triggers providing support to prices so it's a different environment to the late 2020 world. lisa: this has been one of the big questions, if the u.s. is at 72 dollars per barrel and that's the time they would start buying in one of the big declines in oil prices has been the release of the strategic petroleum reserve, how much will that cause prices to rise? are we almost there yet where the administration should start buying and may be driving prices higher in the short term? >> again, i'm going by what the white house said a couple of months ago. they are saying they will be buying oil as soon as we get to 72 and the balance could change

dramatically. we could see an extra half a million barrels per day of demand from the u.s. strategic petroleum reserves. you need to probably put 200 million barrels back in the store. that takes a whole year of buying half a million barrels per day. you can see a meaningful swing in balances in that regard. you could also see into next year, china reopening and picking up momentum even if the first four months are patchy. then i think the sanctions on russian petroleum products are certainly a much bigger deal than the sanctions on russian crude which have turned out to be a lot of to do about nothing. lisa: you mentioned the chinese

meeting in saudi arabia so why does that affect the dynamic of the oil picture given the sense that there seems to be an ongoing and public display of increased closeness there? >> that's a natural development of the bilateral trade between saudi arabia and china which has changed hermetically since the advent of u.s. shale. the u.s. is now a net exporter of energy and we argued the u.s. will be energy dominant stop in some ways, the u.s. is a competitor to saudi arabia in the energy space and in that regard, the trade between riyadh and beijing has picked up dramatically. i think that's a natural change of commercial relationships. tom: maria texted in and asked

if they could make that kick from 10 yards out? madrid must be gloomy. jonathan: do you want to weigh in on that? >> i wasn't happy there yesterday. the team kept passing the ball. they didn't really score and it was all disappointing. things are a little gloomy here and you can see the background, the son has not come out yet. tom: do they know you are in madrid? how did this happen? i'm causing trouble. jonathan: just run, francisco. >> we just don't know. there was an empty office when i got here. i'm beefing up expenses now.

jonathan: wonderful to talk with you. these guys in crude have the hardest job. tom: absolutely. jonathan: as people to predict the crude price because this is tough. tom:tom: the differential between princeton politics and francisco with a wonderfully european sense and the micro economist from chicago, you get a different tone from each of them and there is more. jonathan: do you want a range year for the 10 year treasury yield echo steve major just published. 250 on the 10 year is steve's call for next year. wells fargo yesterday, 475.

and eric says one of our highest conviction years is that it's too low. that's the range right now so you got h has bc saying 250 year end and wells fargo sang potentially 475. going into next year, can that get wider? lisa: nobody understands the path of inflation or growth. the gap here really highlights how much uncertainty there is right now. jonathan: it's crazy. futures now are down, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world -- rafael warnock has turned back republican herschel walker in george's runoff election stop he

was reelected with little more than 51% of the vote and his victory gave democrats a 51-49 edge in the senate making it easier to legislate. walker had been backed by former president trump and china is retreating from the wide-ranging covid zero policy had blamed for damaging the economy and beijing will now allow some people to quarantine at home instead of centralized camps and it's scrapping virus tests in public venues in covid zero pushed down business confidence and left people stuck in a cycle of outbreaks in lockdowns. saudi arabia rolled out the red carpet for the president of china today. he will take part in a regional summit with arab leaders. xi is promising agreements with $30 billion in a trip comes two months after the 70's snapped president biden's pleas for oil. a u.s. judge rejected scientific evidence behind claims that the

art print drug zantac and cause cancer and that means the drugmakers don't have to face more than 5000 lawsuits in a group of plaintiffs say they will appeal. apple may be cruising with his car play technology but the tech giant is tapping the brakes on his plans were at self-driving car and sources say the company has postponed the future electric vehicle launch by about a year. apple is planning a new design that will include a steering wheel and petals and only support full autonomous capabilities on highways. the price tag is under global $100,000. news, 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> thousands of ferns kept telling us month after month and they are still saying that until covid zero is truly over but

truly passed us, firms do not want to invest or borrow and they don't want to hire. just financing covid zero is over, this is great and it makes the lives of citizens happier. jonathan: live from new york city, equities are down about four/10 of 1%. indices are down and yields are unchanged on the 10 year and crude -- china is incrementally reopening and easing restrictions. we've got crude rolling over the last couple of days. tom: i agree that china is part of the story but i would also note that the yuan has come in and now has found stability. i don't think we can look at the

financial aspects of china right now. they are so overtaken by this pandemic that the normal analysis we do doesn't work. jonathan: there are other things going on beyond covid zero like property issues as well and the data has not been great. if you remove covid zero come you get a short-term boost but there are still some challenges there. tom: our conceit is we have a knowledge of hong kong and shanghai and beijing is distant but that is not the case with thomas mckenzie. he joins us this morning with many years on the beijing watch. i was thunderstruck the first time i got off the airplane and beijing. it doesn't smell the same and the air is different and the people are different, it's foreign. what is the gap between what we perceive of china and covid and the distance to the capital beijing?

>> with today's announcement, that gap has narrowed to a degree. it's an incremental change but the announcement from the politburo is the pivot on covid zero. we've heard the speculation and we have seen those incremental easing measures in the last few days. officials have panicked about outbreaks in their jurisdiction but that changes from today. to your point, the consequential parts going forward are to what extent this is implemented on the ground because this will be challenging. this is a population where the health care system is challenge so how they exit from covid zero is what we should be watching. tom: maybe not from 1947 but the mayors of these big cities have power. discuss the power between the cities and their mayors.

also the rural power with beijing, is there a dialogue or is there in imbalance? >> more of that power is concentrated in the hands of the chinese president and we saw that with the latest already congress. officials are talking about setting a gdp target for next year which they say is ambitious is precisely to incentivize those local officials to move away from covid zero and accelerate growth because there is a concern amongst those officials of pushback, reprimands, losing their jobs or worse if they don't follow the line of beijing. that's the reluctance to move away from covid zero because they haven't had that clarity until now. if they set the gdp level, you incentivize the officials in the villages in the towns and districts to move away from covid zero.

lisa: in order for people to understand how serious they are, you have to understand the vaccination process. how much has that effort gotten underway and created a buffer heading into winter? >> this is a really crucial point. an on the need to accelerate vaccination so for the context, the most vulnerable population, only 50% of had their booster shots and 65% have had double vaccinations and that pales to japan and the u.s. and european nations. there was a massive catchup that needed to be happening around vaccinations. there are questions as to why they have mandates and those questions will continue. they've had three years to do this and they haven't acted quickly enough. and they failed to approve the vaccines and has set them back. we will see how consequential

this vaccine push is in terms of getting more shots in arms and building out clinics around the health care care system to ensure they are ready for an uptick in infections and hospitalizations that many now predict. lisa: the belief that china is beginning to more fully open up, g ching ping tung is meeting with -- g ching ping tung is meeting with foreign leaders so what is the signal there? chan is trying to supply itself ahead of a reopening or is this reordering of the world order and convenience on both sides to show the united strength against the u.s.? >> i was speaking to a trader in london who said watch for this meeting between president xi and the saudi's, there may be an agreement about using the yuan instead of the dollar around these transactions. that is the interest of some trading desks around london.

it's a push by the chinese president to have a multipolar world, to pushback and what they see as western u.s. led hegemony. they want to solidify this relationship with the saudi's when washington has deep frictions that continue. there is a play here and it's complicated and china is a major user of commodities. it's far from being self-sufficient when it comes to energies and they need those resources from the saudi's but it's deeper than just a transaction around oil. i'm curious on your view of the potential of what banks will do in 2023. will they stay as a generalization in hong kong? do you subscribe to the movement to singapore? >> that's a fascinating question. that's a trend we have to watch. when i was there a little over a

year ago, we were at a place where he spoke to the investment banks of europe and the u.k. in the u.s. and they're pushing to have greater ownership in their operations and there was a fight or talent. they were trying to build their footprint in mainland china but that has been reversed. the shift to hong kong, they say we are still investing for the long term and we will remain committed to hong kong. does it shift away from singapore next year? i would say it's doubtful but it's a thing to watch. jonathan: great work as always. do we need to drop the phrase covid zero? this is about china changing its tolerance around this virus. close to can quarantine at home for five days but there is another way of phrasing that,

close contacts down need to quarantine for five days at home. high risk areas will not be locked down if there are no new outbreaks. that doesn't mean they are wide open, we have just shifted the tolerance. lisa: if that policy were implemented in new york, that would be considered a lockdown. that would be considered a controversial aspect of a close schools and disrupt work laces and make it difficult to live a normal life. that's not a full reopening but is it the beginning of something that looks like that that could potentially be expedited? we are not seeing that in the market. jonathan: what is the endgame? tom: i had cliff notes in college.

lisa: i always read the back page first. it's very stressful. tom: i want to mention that is the 81st anniversary of pearl harbor. that framed my childhood and what's different this year and started in march as i have been there and smelled the oil above the arizona. is still leaking out 81 years on. and finally, from an environmental standpoint, they are asking what we will do. jonathan: it's been going on for that long? tom: 81 years on an oil is still leaking out. jonathan: i didn't know that. tom: you are standing there smelling it. you smell it through the entire harbor. there is a push to clean it up. jonathan: 81 years, wow.

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hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple.

golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works.

>> inflation is too high and i will contend that this current inflation battle is not one off. >> the likelihood of a soft landing is quite low. >> the idea of a soft landing is mean so much of the data would be historically unique. >> no one is placing big bets that will see a miraculous second-half rally. >> we can be sure this will be a jumpy ride. >> this is bloomberg surveillance.