>> once we get into our recession, things can break unexpectedly. >> wages are rising, prices are rising, that is likely going to take a recession to take

inflationary forces back down. >> when liquidity rises up, you get incredible volatility coming out in the market. >> the bond market is telling you inflation is of the past and the fed has done too much. >> we think a recession will come at some point, maybe late 2023. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: that time of year where you are itching to say, year is over. lisa: that was a while ago. [laughter] jonathan: cpi next week, then the fed decision. you get a feeling after the fed decision, year over, let's go home. lisa: let's go, all right. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. tk that with us -- back with us. lisa: cpi report, then we get the fed meeting. everyone seems to be waiting for that.

it has been a light week of data. there has been a shift in tone. this week has been notable. yields have gone lower and that did not push stocks higher. that is a signal we have shifted narrative into a slowdown, not necessarily into some sort of stimulative effect of lower yields. jonathan: is the oil market part of that story for you? lisa: you could draw it into the narrative based on the price action. i do not understand the oil market. i do not understand how the petroleum reserves are factoring into this. i do not understand how china's reopening hasn't given more of a boost oil prices. there is more production being made from a lot of oil companies at this point. i honestly do not know. jonathan: i still do not understand the oil cap. futures on the s&p 500, up by .4%. i have had 10 people explain that to me. does it make a difference? lisa: it is a good question. there have been reports about chinese buying oil from russia at $79 a barrel.

i -- jonathan: $74 on beauty i right now. what a call to push back against triple digit stuff going into year in. euro-dollar positive .1% at 1.05. the year is not over for the europeans after the fed sites its the ecb's turn next thursday to wrap things up. yields higher i four or five basis points. still 3.50 on a 10 year. reg spoke to us, he said that maybe the bond market part of it, a little too rich. on the curve, he said the long in. lisa: people saying the rally has gone too far, rates stabled was talking about a 4% 10 year yield over the next decade. that is the new base. jonathan: the new floor. i heard that from wells fargo. lisa: how much does that rearrange a market that has been predicated on low rates? jonathan: i think there is a

consensus view around tech stocks, that yields have to go lower, we go back to the old playbook of the pre-pandemic and we have heard push back on the bond side from greg on the equity side, as well from the bank of america. they have had strong words yesterday about tech that we have been conditioned by the gains of a decade, we still are kind of itching to get back in. she is saying that has got to go away. lisa: has transitory gone away? jonathan: you do not think it has? lisa: i do not. i think people have think -- thought it was prolonged. not discarded. eventually, there will be a disinflationary force that will take. there isn't as much consideration to structural difference that would cause inflation to be higher. jonathan: cpi on the 13th. jim polson joins us now. jim, your words, a new easing cycle has begun. some people might be scratching their heads and saying, they are going to hike 50 basis points next week. what are you talking about?

what do you mean, a new easing cycle has begun? >> the fed is not the only policy driver in the room. there are others. a lot of those have started to ease. they do not hold press conferences, but it still matters. i think if you go through the list, we have the fed that will raise rates again. if you look at what the bond market is doing, everything from two years out, are all easing. we got 75 basis points ease in the tenure, mortgage rates are coming down. on the login, that matters. that matters. immediate support for stocks, but longer term the economy. fiscal juice, federal deficit gdp ratio is rising again after going down for months. almost 18 months. it is starting to prove -- improve again as tax receipts slow, automatic expenditures go

up and fiscal juice expands. the dollar is starting to ease after a tightening for all of this year. that matters, too overall. then, you get into things like companies. look at what companies are dealing with. they are seeing industrial commodity prices that have come down 20% to 25%. they are seeing unit labor costs decelerating as per yesterday's report, they are seeing capital costs coming down. everything from commodity to capital cost to labor cost are easing for companies. look at the consumer. they are seeing as prices at the pump fall from over five dollars, heading towards three dollars. the real wage, real wage rate has risen 3.2% annualized pace in the last five months. as inflation is moderated, real wages are rising again for the household sector. you look at credit spreads, chuck spreads were mortgage spreads are starting to tighten

again, which is an easing mechanism, if you will. i think there is quite a bit of early cycle easing. i think the fed story is about over, too. i think they are just getting increasingly out of bounds raising rates with falling commodity prices, raising rates with decelerating headline inflation rates, raising rates with decelerating unit labor costs. raising rates in a slowing economy. i think they are going to have to be wrapping it up soon. lisa: what is your s&p target next year? 6000, 5000, it seems like a bullish scenario that goes a lot --against a lot of consensus. jim: if you think the bear market is not over, i get that. that is one thing. i think the lows are in. i think we are starting a new bowl -- bull markets. think about 25 percent, 30% in

year one. that is what vollmar do. -- bull markets do. if we avoid recession, which the odds favor that we do, or if we have a modest recession, the stock market is into a new bull market. in the first year, bulls earnings do not do well. there are often flat and down. what really happens is multiples go up. i looked back since 1990, the first year of bull markets, the average trail moving moves -- on average. let's say earnings go to $220 or $215 and the next year, but the multiple goes from its low at the bear market low of around 17 up to 22 or 23 times, catch me around 5000. i do not think that is unreasonable. i am -- i am interested the strategist on the street, they forecast virtually no gain at all the next year.

there is not a lot of years where people are looking at -- out, strategists are usually optimistic and now are pessimistic. i think that is wrong and we are past the bear and we have a modest or no recession and starting a new bull, i think the returns could be phenomenal. something around 5000 in the next 12 months. jonathan: can you tell me how rare it would be to make a low in the equity market this far ahead of a recession that we still have not had? jim: i look back at this. going back to 1945, i think there has been 11 recessions. i go back, what was the response of the stock market during each cycle prior to the beginning of a recession? from the s&p 500 from a cycle hi from the month right to head to

the start of the recession. how much has the stock market responded to recession risk? the median response of the previous 11 what's 5.5% climb from its cycle hi. here in this cycle, we are already down more than 25% from the cycle hi. that is how much we already adjusted for a pending recession. i think part of the fallout, if you will from a recession, is already in the stock market. even if we had one, i am not so sure that necessarily means it has to go down. i would also say, i do not remember a time where the ceos in this country are almost 100% universal we are going to have a recession. usually, recessions are something that comes out of left yield and surprises the market. that is not going to happen. people already have it in the market. i think it is a different situation overall. same thing with yield curves. i have looked at that and inverted yield curves, which read -- lead to recessions and

we could get one here, the fact of the matter is, the negative fallout from the stock market depends on when the curve inverts. the ones that turn out bad for stocks is when the curve inverts and the stock market is near its high for the cycle. this curve inverted in october when the stock market was off 25%. when that happens, the stock market does ok. we will see what happens. i am more on the side that there is too much pessimism, too much has already been discounted, and that opens the door for positive surprising people have to catch up. jonathan: this is quite cool. fantastic to get you on a program before year end. hopefully, we can catch up before christmas. here is some news. reports coming across the united states, confirmation, bloomberg. i am sure you are familiar with brittney griner, the wnba star who has been held for months in a russian prison on drug charges. she has been released according to a house official.

reports suggesting there has been a one or one prisoner swap with russia. for an international arms dealer, going the other way. lisa: this something that has been discussed for a wild. she is going to be released in return for viktor bout, that was international arms dealer. she is going to undergo a medical evaluation per protocol once there is a release. jonathan: we catch up with annmarie and a couple of hours. we will also be hearing from the president, set to speak at 8:30 eastern time. he will deliver remarks on -- at the roosevelt room. i am sure we will take that on bloomberg television and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ kailey: -- lisa: in saudi arabia, china's president xi jinping met with the crown prince. the saudi's are the world's top oil exporter and china is their biggest customer.

both are looking to diversify their energy mix as part of xi's visit, chinese and saudi company signed investments agreements for solar energy. ukraine's president to linsky's warning of prolonged power shutdowns due to russian attacks. in his nightly address, zelenskyy said capacity was constantly being expanded but it will not be possible in the short-term to return the power grid to its prewar state. hong kong taking a cautious step toward a full reopening. the city has shortened the isolation period for people who have tested positive for covert and close contacts. inbound travelers will be required to take to fewer rapid tests. hong kong has been slowly rolling back covid rules that have been keeping it isolated during the covid pandemic. president biden will announce a $36 billion bailout for a struggling teamsters pension fund today. it will help up sure and deliver help to the presidents union

allies after he signed legislation proposing a contract on real-world workers. exxon mobil taking some of its record profits and boosting share by program. it will now repurchase $50 billion of stock through 2024. that compares with the previous plan to spend $30 billion next year. exxon's second and third quarter earnings were the highest in the company's history. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake." powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city. equity futures positive on the s&p. in about 14 minutes, we will get you data. jobless claims in america coming

up. yields higher by five basis points on a 10 year, 3.46. moments ago, breaking news. annmarie: big breaking news coming out of the white house this morning. this is a culmination of months of work from this administration in their dealings with russia. this is the release from a penal colony of greiner, the wnba star. she was arrested in february for having cannabis oil on her possession of luggage in a moscow airport. she was sentenced to nine years in prison most recently was moved to that penal colony. we know the united states over the summer put forward this plan to the russians for a potential proposal for her and paul whelen. they are only getting brittney griner out now. i am sure that is a question we put to the president when he speaks in about 15 minutes or so from the white house.

what they did exchange, who they did exchange brittney griner for is viktor bout, a very well-known russian arms dealer serving a five-year sentence that is now being cut short. he is an individual his nicknames are the merchant of death and the sanctions buster. there has been a lot of pressure on this administration to bring home wnba star greiner, to bring home paul whelen, who is still in russian as they did with trevor reed in april. lisa: how did they decide on viktor bout? how is he the one they decided to release? annmarie: a lot of this you have to remember, a lot of these meetings and proposals, so much of it is clouted in secrecy. this something u.s. officials do not want to discuss and ask them about the status of these individuals. because of their safety, the potential any leaks could ruin the deal. you have to remember, the united states is only one side of this agreement. i would imagine when it comes to

viktor bout, this is an individual the kremlin wanted back. jonathan: great to catch up. in about 25 minutes time, we will hear from the president. we will take that address. the latest on tesla, stocks trading through most of this money. tesla, short on production chips at its shanghai factory. as soon as monday, on boarding new hires according to people familiar with the situation. tesla's stock at the moment down 1.6%. dan, your thoughts on this story that came out moments ago? >> i think you are starting to see a bit of a demand issue in china. that is something i think -- is adjusting to. i view it more near-term, not a long-term systemic issue. we look at a cinderella story, they have hurdles in china. jonathan: the same for apple, is that a tesla problem or a broader problem?

dan: a tesla problem. demand supply is about three:1. -- because of what we are seeing on the iphone globally. for tesla, competition in china, they continue being in a strong position. you are starting to see democrats in the armor. they need to adjust. that is what you are starting to see. our thesis for 2023 in terms of 2 million units terms to stand. lisa: -- is the lack of demand in china giving a pass to tech companies to start to divert business out of that nation a little more, especially in light of the turmoil we have seen over the past few years? dan: i think specifically for apple, these -- the clock struck

midnight in terms of what we have seen in china. because of foxconn, covid zero. it has been a disaster in terms of christmas. we will see about 10 to 15 million shortages because of what we are seeing in china. i think we will start seeing diversifying out, potentially in the vietnam and others. i think you are starting to see a change in the tide in terms of what we have seen in china the last few months. lisa: you think this is more of a tesla story in terms of competition in china, the lack of demand where it had been a bright spot. how much is this pressure further by this idea of a margin loan to elon musk to bask -- back twitter and back by tesla shares, leveraging up some of his earnings? dan: selling a diamond to buy a slice of new york city pizza. i think that has been a overhang on the tesla story, the

frustration continues to build because the twitter circus show. i think right now, it is not what investors want to see at a time where demand, especially in china -- this is a storm that must needs to navigate tesla through. jonathan: why are you still on 250 on the stock to outperform? dan: 2023 and 2024 story, that is still 2 million units. i view this as more of a soft path, not the start of what i view as a broader, structural issue. in terms of ev, i think we will see in terms of adoption, double in china the next two to three years. tesla is going to be a major part of that. i think right now, it has been a magic carpet ride and they are finally in some uncertainty. an avid -- they need to navigate through it. jonathan: what do you make of the apple delay? dan: i think the china situation has thrown a lot of their

strategic plans. i think potentially out, and terms of what apple is dealing with. i think now, juggling a lot of balls. first, strategically moving out of china is number one. i think the demand story in terms of overall dvds and a taunus, this is not the top priority for apple. i think as gurman has talked about, still believe the apple car will, even though it is probably delayed by another year. lisa: do you think there is overly pessimistic views around apple around big tech more broadly as not being able to be the drivers of the next cycle? we keep hearing about that, the d indexing. i am never going to get it right. jonathan: out indexing. versus indexing. lisa: ok. throwing out some of the big behemoths. do you buy into that story, and if not, how do you push back? dan: the new york city cab driver is bearish on that track. what my view is, that is not

going to change over the coming years in terms of tech leading. market higher because this transformation in the industrial revolution is not in. i think it is more of a shift. i think that is why more of these tech names are oversold. they are going through a correction which has been brutal. they are cutting costs. growth needs to be robust. -- since 2010. jonathan: dan ives of bush. lisa: i am sitting here thinking about that versus 5000 on the s&p within 12 months, which we just heard from jim polson. so much bullishness saying it is the most under owned area, going back to 2010 big tech which a lot of people are saying, you need to one index. will never get that right. i am sorry. jonathan: maybe for good reason. back to news of the last 20 minute. there has been a prisoner swap between the united states and russia. brittney griner, the wnba star

who i am sure many of you are familiar with over the past couple of months, detained in russia on drug charges has been released for an international arms dealer from russia going the other way. we will hear from the president in about five minutes. what we hear from the president so far on twitter, moments ago, i spoke to brittney griner. she is safe and on a plane on her way home. lisa: this comes at a time of escalation between conflict with russia's war in ukraine, there still is this swap being had and made. there is a lot of discussion around brittney griner's family not wanting to overly politicize this, they didn't want this to get caught in the crosshairs of the conflict right now. yet, there are going to be questions around some of the discussions around this in terms of what the u.s. is giving up and what russia is getting. jonathan: it is controversial to ca w would be player come one way and a international arms dealer go the other way. that is been the nature of the

negotiations the past couple of months. lisa: there are highly political reasons. it is a symbolic move or the u.s. to support their own internationally, especially for a international women's sports star. there is a question of how this will be cast, you are correct. this is not simple. jonathan: a briefing from the president five minutes away. we will take that on bloomberg tv and radio. coming up, we catch up with these all in the next hour as we count you down to the opening bell. ♪

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lisa: this is bloomberg surveillance. tom is off, jon is preparing for the next hour. breaking news as we wait jobless claims. michael mckee graces us through the door as he prepares for that. markets trying to stage a little rebound, but it is meeker after a week of losses. five straight days seeing yields continue to creep up a little bit after having come down dramatically the past few weeks. let's get to michael mckee with the data. michael: we will make this fast. i know you've got breaking news right now. initial jobless claims coming in

virtually unchanged from the prior week. 200 30,000, that was the expectation. not going to set anybody's hair on fire with those numbers. continuing claims did rise 1,671,000 compared to 1,608,000. shows that people are taking a little longer to find jobs. that number is still pretty low. overall, this report does not move the needle a lot on anything for the fed or the labor market. we have to caution this is the holiday period, it is hard to seasonally adjust for the continuing claims number for the week of thanks giving. there were a couple of days off where people were not going to be going in filing for claims. this is the time of your cannot put a lot of stock in what we are seeing other than in the rod and general trend, which is not bad. lisa: in markets, things did pick up in terms of the s&p and nasdaq futures. you did see dollar softening, yields went anywhere on the back

of this. i am wondering whether there is relevance between these initial jobless claims, given they are less and less traded and less and less emphasized. michael: i think they are nowhere near as relevant as they used to be. what we watched coming out of the pandemic and the big shutdown, we are back to where we were pre-pandemic with very low jobless claims sound very strong labor market. to the extent they give us an idea of what is going on in the labor market, it shows we are not seeing a major change at, even if people are protecting we will get one eventually. lisa: thank you. always great to see you, even if this is not the indicator people want to trade. michael: tomorrow. lisa: tomorrow and next week will be a big one. we are awaiting a press conference from president biden in the united states after the announcement of the release of brittney griner, a two-time gold medalist women's basketball star

who was released in a prisoner swap with international arms dealer with russia. we are going to build on that and bring that to you when we get it. we want to dig into the labor market, into the question of how far along we are in this disinflationary moment. the chief economist at nationwide joining us now, who has been on top of the tightness of this labor market and how quickly it could be potentially loosening. how much are you starting to see signs of softening, loosening in a market consistently surprised to the upside in terms of how hot and tight it is? >> happy to be with you. we are not seeing a lot of -- i think that is good news, but on the other hand, for the federal reserve, not what they are looking for. they did want and need the labor market to loosen, not necessarily that they want to see jobless claims or people come unemployed, but what they would like to do is take some of the air in the market, the job openings relative to the

unemployed is high. running around 7%. wage growth accelerated, gdp both looks like it is accelerating in the fourth quarter. this is going the opposite way for now, but the fed wants growth to slow potential. that means gdp growth below 8%, we are running below 3% for the fourth quarter. there is more work to be done, i think it reinforces for next week that we hear from chairman powell. they will dial back to 50 basis points, at seems to be in the cards in terms of rate hikes. they need to sound a bit hawkish. they do not want to scare the markets, but they need lift rates at least by 5%. lisa: do you buy into this idea we are seeing more disinflation because it is a backward looking indication, people .2 dealer views on car sales next year, people point two a lot of goods, gasoline prices, rents. why is that not coming together

with a feeling that perhaps the fed is getting what they want in terms of a disinflationary rollover effect will help them? kathy: we are on the way. we are on the right path, particularly on the goods sector. in the service sector, that is where the issue is and that is where services are labor defensive. with the labor market, we need to see wage growth low and other service producers to pull back on their inconveniences. as long as the consumer stays strong and willing to pay, we are kept in this inflation dynamic of -- i think what you have to see is the labor market wage growth slow. labor costs were cooler this week, but we to see the extended and maintained. my concern is, companies will start to lose -- goods and services, losing some pricing

power. at the same time, if the labor costs are still running high, that is a prophet merge and squeeze and the equity market is not priced for that. nor is the bond market price for the fed to go to 5% and hold it there for next year. bond market is pricing in easing next year. lisa: people would see -- say, what is the market seeing that the fed is not? to your point, there is a huge dissonance with what economists say with where the fed's rate should end up. what you see with respect to market compression and yields. what gives, who is right? kathy: ultimately, we do not know. it is the fundamentals that suggest the equity market has gotten ahead of itself and the bond market. from what we hear from the fed reserve, it is their resolve to resolute and make sure inflation

comes down even though we are seeing disinflationary forces come into play. it is not enough to get us back towards 2% target level of confidence. i think that is what the federal reserve is saying. we want to be confident to go back to 2%. just because we go back from 7%, let's say headline inflation down to 5%, that is still not enough. we are in the right direction. i think that means the fed doesn't have to raise rates to 6% or higher, but they are ready to pause or cut rates looking into your. lisa: we are awaiting a press conference from president biden on a prisoner swap after releasing brittney griner. we will bring that to you when he does come out with those comments. he did say he has spoken with her and she is safe. kathy, we are talking about the likelihood the fed is going to raise rates further than people expect, that perhaps the equity market is not going to see a

downturn as result of market compression. i am wondering whether the structure of this market has been surprisingly resilient to you given how much debt has been incurred over the past decade and the idea it has been predicated on low rates. people thought it would break, it hasn't. is it give you confidence or make you think it is just a matter of time? kathy: because rates were low for so long and actually allowed companies to lock in for a long. -- for a long period of time, i wasn't overly concerned. the tech sector, which has already been repriced because they rely on debt and not able to login for as long period of time. if you look at the -- it is at least three to five years away for now. not overly concerned about that. i think once we get past this period, i think we go back to low interest because i am just saying from 2023, it seems to me

the market is premature in thinking this is all behind us. i guess the idea is, it is a unusual period. we have never seen a recession so anticipated. it does make you, i spent a lot of time on wall street, it makes you think have seen the other side of it and a soft landing is more likely now. you come back to the fundamentals, it doesn't seem to add up. the recession risk is still there. lisa: thank you. right now, let us turn to president biden as he gives comets after the release of written greiner. pres. biden: moments ago, standing with her in the oval office, i spoke with brittney griner. she is safe, she is on a plane, she is on her way home and four months being unjustly attained and russia held under intolerable circumstances. britney will soon be back in the arms of her loved ones and she should have been there all

along. this is a day we have worked toward for a long time. we have never stopped pushing for her release. it took painstaking and intense negotiations. i want to thank the hard work you public service -- servants across mayan ministration who worked tirelessly to secure her release. i want to thank the uae for helping us facilitate needs return, that is where she landed. these past few months have been held for brittany and charlene -- hell for brittany and charlene and her family and her teammates back home. people all across the country have learned about britney's story, advocated for her release throughout this terrible ordeal. i know that support meant a lot to her family. i am glad to say brittany is in good spirits. she is relieved to finally be heading home. the fact remains she has lost months of her life, experienced needles trauma and deserves space, privacy and times to

recover and heal from her time being wrongfully detained. brittany is a two-time elliptic gold medalist for team usa, she endured mistreatment and at a show trial in russia with characteristic grit and incredible dignity. she represents the best about america across the board. everything about her. she wrote to me back in july, she did not ask for special treatment even though we have been working on her release from day one. she requested a simple quote, please do not forget about me and the other american detainees. please do all you can do bring us home. we never forgot about britney, we have not forgotten about paul whelan -- paul whelan, who has been unjustly detained in russia for years. this is not a choice of which american to bring home. we brought home trevor reed when we had a chance earlier this year. sadly, for totally illegitimate

reasons, russia is treating paul's case differently than britney's. while we have not succeeded in securing paul's lease, we are not giving up. we will never give up. we remain in close touch with paul's family, the wheel and family, and my thoughts and prayers are with him today. they have to have mixed emotions today. we will keep negotiating in good faith for paul's release, i guarantee that. i say that to the family. i guarantee you. i urge russia to do the same to ensure paul's health and humane treatment are maintained until he can bring him home. i do not want any american to sit wrongfully detained and one extra day if we can bring a person home. my administration has now brought home dozens of americans who are wrongly detained and held hostage abroad, many of whom have been held since before i took office. today, we remember the other americans who are being held hostage and wrongfully detained in russia or anywhere else in

the world. reuniting americans with their loved ones remain at priority for my administration and every person in my administration. we are going to continue to bring home every american who continues to endure such injustice. we want to prevent any more american families from suffering this pain and separation. i strongly urge all americans to take precautions, including reviewing the state departments travel advisories, before they travel overseas. which now includes warnings about the risk of being wrongfully detained by foreign government. make no mistake about it, this work is not easy. negotiations are always difficult. there are never any guarantees. it is my job as president of the united states to make the hard calls and protect american citizens anywhere in the world. i am proud today we have hit -- we have made one more family whole again. welcome home, britney. i would like to invite cherelle to say a few words to you.

she is not excited at all about this. it is all yours, kiddo. congratulations again. >> thank you. thank you. over the last nine months, you all have been so privy to one of the darkest moments of my life. today, i am standing here overwhelmed with emotions, but the most important emotion i have right now is sincere gratitude for president biden and his entire administration. he just mentioned this work is not easy, it has not been. there has been so many hands involved. i would like to take a moment to specifically mention a few. vice present harris, secretary blinken, jake sullivan, just gilts or from the national security council, roger carter's and in fletcher, shown from the hostage invoice office, a special thank you to governor richardson and vicki.

the mercury players, the w in bpa for your advocacy and you guys may not know this, but my family has been tremendously supported by the washington agency agent, which has been amazing for me and my family throughout this process. today, my family is whole, but as you are aware, there are so many families who are not whole. bg is not here to say this, but i will gladly speak on her behalf. we will remain committed to the work of getting every american home, including paul, whose family is in our hearts today as we celebrate bg being home. we do understand there are still people out here who are enduring what i entered the last nine months of missing tremendously their loved one. thank you everybody for your support. today is a happy day for me and my family. i am going to smile right now.

thank you. lisa: we have been listening to a press conference with president biden and the wife of brittney griner. the prisoner in russia, who was the two-time gold medalist u.s. women's american basketball player who has been highly celebrated as an athlete, has been detained, has been released in a prisoner swap. the emotional aspect of the prisoners who have been left behind. let's break it down. annmarie hordern joining us now. tell us about the context of this and what is happening with the ongoing prisoners, in particular with paul whelan. the president striking a joyous tone in the beginning, he is excited and success for them to be able to bring brittney griner home. there has been pressure on the administration. we know they have been talking to the russians and they gave them a trade swap idea in the summer. obviously, the president trying to make sure he hammers home he

is not forgotten about paul whelan. paul whelen is sent to 16 years, he has been in jail for about four years. he is a former u.s. marine. the president said, we have not forgotten about him. or totally illegitimate reasons, russia is treating paul's case different than whitney's. while we have not succeeded in securing paul's release, we will not give up. what u.s. officials are telling us, with the russians it was either greiner or no one and that is when the president made the decision to bring written greiner home. lisa: thank you so much, and marie. going forward as you do so well. we turn to the international stage, not just with russia, but generally with europe. a different picture for certain nations that have struggled in the past with rates that haven't risen much as they have in the past. greece, still enjoying rates that are substantially lower than they have been over the european credit crisis and beyond. joining us now is christos,

greece finance minister who is in new york city to find some investors in greece. i am wondering, what is the interest like in investing in europe at a time where a lot of people have been questioning their recovery? >> in greece, we have proof we have selected, important investors. to give you intuition. in the last two years, we have historical record of investments. according to the european commission, in two years, we will have the highest investment goals among all united states. we created the conditions through high-growth, sustainable growth, reduction of bank balances and the same time, a credit and physical -- by reforms in order to attract

investors, especially from the u.s. lisa: structural form at a time where greece is spending a lot more to support households through a period of elevated energy costs and general inflation. how much pushback do you get from investors in terms of fiscal spending when they are concerned about inflation, debt and a higher rate environment? christos: simple answers. in 2022, despite the fact we spent a lot of money to support the most vulnerable part of society, we targeted temporarily -- we have the largest fiscal process in all of the united states. in 2022, we will invest the situation to pair surpluses from 2023 onwards. the second comment, debt to gdp is going to decrease by 50% over the period of 2021, 2020 three. the largest indication of the

gdp among all united states is 2019. both of these figures confirm how stable our public finance are. lisa: how vulnerable are you to the ecb raising rates more than currently projected? this idea there is a hawkish central bank, especially as we know greece is a member of the central bank has pushed back and said no, go slower. christos: these are issues you have to raise to the ecb. what i can tell you as a minister of finance of a european country is that the fiscal policy with monetary policy should be synchronized. take into account the experience we had during the health crisis, we succeeded. we have succeeded. the fact that interest rates go up is an issue we have to control public and private debt. we have to try as minister of finance to adapt the normal

policies in order to minimize assists. lisa: we have talked about the euro and weakness we have seen, whether that is a good thing or bad thing. it is a bad thing because it supports inflation. it is a good thing because everybody wants to go to europe, in particular, greece. we have seen incredible tourism, i have seen the pictures of packed santorini. how much do you want the weakness in the euro to continue for that purpose? christos: we do not want this weakness. however, we have to take our advantages and create conditions to increase much more, not only high-growth but sustainable growth. to give you figures, in 2022, it is expected from the european commission, we will have twice growth compared to others. in 2023, we will have significant -- of the european

level, we will have twice the european average growth rate. at the same time in 2022, we will have historical records in greece regarding exports and investments. all of them are extremely important, which confirm the progress, the resilience but the positive progress of the economy. lisa: what is the biggest pushback you get from investors? christos: the fact the external environment is not favorable enough to invest. the external environment. also creating instances to upgrade us, we are close. the target. we have been upgraded 11 times over the last three years. four times during the energy crisis. but, we are not yet there. we expect in 2023, we will -- lisa: i was recently in greece on a vacation. it is lovely. food is great.

i talked to a lot of people there. almost every single one of them had a family member who moved out of the country to the u.s. to other places in europe and talked about a brain drain, a lack of opportunity in greece and they had to go elsewhere whether for schooling or jobs. how are you going to bring those people back? christos: we did it. over the last three years, we have decreased unemployment by 5%. we have created some tax incentives to motive eyes young people, investments to congress. we have succeeded. lisa: thank you for being with us. christos: thank you. lisa: the minister of finance in greece. we went to give you a sense of what has been happening. president biden speaking after the release of brittney griner from russia after being detained for drug possession. she has been released to the u.s. in a prisoner swap, and

international release. to give you a sense of what president biden had to say, take a listen. pres. biden: this is a day we have worked for or a long time. it took painstaking and intense negotiations, i want to thank the hard-working public servants across my administration who worked tirelessly to secure her release. lisa: present biden indicating -- president biden they will discuss the details to potentially release paul we lin, who has been detained for quite some time and sentenced to charges of espionage, who he says are faulty. this comes at a time of increasingly tenuous discussions, tenuous relationships between russia and western nations. they have been bombing ukraine, taking out some infrastructure. it raises a question of how much they can continue to negotiate, one of the biggest question marks behind the grinders release. people are celebrating brittney

griner's release as a sign people can come home. her family is joyful to hear that. in markets, it is quiet. a quiet week setting up for fireworks next week, given the fact a lot of people expect the year to end as you get both the cpi report tuesday and the fed decision wednesday. annmarie hordern joining us from washington, d.c. how much is this a victory lap at the end of a year that has been surprisingly positive for president died in after incredibly low popular -- president biden after incredibly low popular ratings? annmarie: it gives the wind in his back. the senate now has 51 seats, they gained a seat. in april, there was success with trevor reed. he was in a prisoner exchange swap. brittney griner was arrested in february for having cartridges

with cannabis oil, she was sentenced to nine years in prison. the united states says that is absurd and there is a lot of pressure to get her back, especially in november when she moved to a penal colony. in that sense, it is a success. the president said it was a good morning. when he was walking out, they ask when she would land. she will land in the next 24 hours. the next question is paul whelan. he wants to come home. this is going to be difficult for his family. lisa: thank you. coming up, i am sure we will be talking more about this. they will be speaking with the u.k. minister of trade policy in the background, a question around u.s. stimulus and what that means in terms of drawing dollars to the u.s. and potentially away from the european union. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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can we bounce back from the losing streak? equity futures positive. the countdown to the open start now -- starts now. >> this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, how many times have you heard this -- >> bonds are back. >> it is a good idea to own bonds.