tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg December 9, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EST
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manus cranny in dubai. the eyes are the stories that site your agenda. >> global stocks and treasuries climb as traders await today's u.s. ppi data. expected to show doing to cool. momentum weakening. china's inflation measures soften as the economy stalls. willing to boost -- boost oil trading. credit suisse completes a $4.3 billion capital raise, giving the embattled swiss bank the funds needed for restructuring. pretty good morning. i knew we would get some value out of you before the end of the week. good to have you with me this morning. it's the worst year for stocks since 1974. the number of days that we rallied to the number of days that we lost. it's not good.
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kriti: i wasn't around in 1974. there are so many comparisons made to the 70's by some of the bowls. marco kalon a fish has talked a lot about this. is this a repeat of the volcker era? he says there's a super cycle underway when it comes to commodities. energy stocks won't be a part of it. he's expecting a 20% drop in the sector. what do you make of that? manus: it's the battle of the big heads of wall street, will senses this is a bear market rally. he reckons 3500 was a good entry point. it's interesting that you reflect back on the 1970's. that's when arthur burns capitulated at the fed, rolling down on those rates. that's the big debate for 2023. manus: it is. we will talk about it for the
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markets. you are still seeing them flying high. you are seeing green on the screen across the world. take a look at the msci asia pacific index. up 1.2%. the sentiment goes on. a lot of this has to do with the chinese reopening. inflation measures coming down a little bit. consumer indicators showing inflation easing. does that create more room for the pboc to ease even further? that's the thought that is driving the markets this morning. take a look at euro stocks futures. up for tens of 1%, a little bit of that continuing into the u.s. session as well. futures up by 2/10 of 1%. tech outperformance. nasdaq futures up three tons of 1%. manus: we will debate whether tesla is like a rolling credit card for credit risk. across the rest of the markets,
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a 10% brutal drop. global recession fears trump the tryon -- china reopening. changes are good for the rest of the world but the oil market is under pressure. will they have an emergency opec meeting? bombs roll down in terms of yield. labor costs are revised lower to 2.5 percent. breakevens are dropping. that along with geopolitical angst drives the bond market lower. the dollar flops and we are debating that 9% drop from its peak. has it endured past the peak? good news for the chinese builders. iron ore flying higher by 1.8%. kriti: a lot to digest from around the world. let's get to reporters who have the latest. tesla comes back again, under pressure as elon musk focuses on twitter.
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manus: let's talk more about china. consumer inflation eases in november. covid disruptions suppression demand, giving the central bank room to ease policy as the economy tries to recover. let's get to our china editor who joins us now. here we go. deflationary spiral should fill me with dread. or is it a moment of relief for the pboc? good morning. jill: good morning. what we are looking at right here, deflation easing. china consumer inflation. last month, this is all before covid zero started to be dismantled and the way that we've seen in recent days. we still had a lot of confusions over lockdowns. people staying in their homes, being depressed. all of that will contribute to these weaker price pressures in china. that does mean that the people's bank of china is going to have a
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little bit of room to continue with easing policies. major central banks are continuing to hike rates. economists are saying that right now, probably in the first quarter of next year, you might see the pboc take a look at benchmark interest rates, maybe they will make another cut to the ratio for banks. there is some room for them to continue to add stimulus, trying to prop up the economic recovery as china starts to move toward dismantling further the covid zero policy. kriti: speaking about that economic recovery, a lot of anticipation building for that crucial property turnaround. what is going on with property stocks in china at the moment? jill: right now, what everybody is taking a look at is what happens in the coming weeks. we are expecting a big economic work conference meeting at some point. the i's on whether or not the property sector is continuing seeing some level of relief.
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investors definitely keen to see whether we are done with this whole property crackdown that we've seen over the past couple of years. that's going to be a key thing to look up heading into 2023. kriti: thank you as always for all things china. let's transition. china and saudi arabia have agreed to upgrade their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, solidifying ties between the economy and its top supplier of oil. how significant is this move to deepen relations? >> is very significant. we had a sense that it would be a major announcement. that's what they got. the strategic partnership that entails, meeting every two years. beyond that, it solidifies a lot of the economic deals that have been agreed on. in the vicinity about -- of
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about $10 million. it creates optionality. i wouldn't talk about an alternative world order here. the saudi's are sending a message to the u.s. that there are other sources to service their interest. most of the economic side for the moment but that could come later in terms of the security side. they've signed the deal with huawei to help develop high-speed internet and cloud computing. that will be a red flag for the united states. earlier in the year, the ftc ruled hallway -- huawei out of the game. that will be something to watch for sure. manus: a needle in the side of the u.s. thank you very much. my cohost here in dubai. elon musk has told his twitter followers, it's wise to avoid using margin lows when there are macro economic risks. let's get the tim culpan.
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elon musk is referring to the big story that we had, that he could be trying to use tesla as a backstop to his twitter debt pile. talk us through the feeling, the risk if you will. tim: the thing to remember is that elon musk didn't buy twitter out of his own cash. there was dead involved. twitter itself was burdened with more debt. the company you buy is the one that takes on the debt. twitter has more debt today than it did six months ago. he's also been using his stakes in various companies. he doesn't have $45 billion sitting around in a bank account. he borrows against the various holdings he has. tesla is the biggest one. there has been talk that maybe he wants to rollover or refinance some of the debt that has been taken out. right now, advertisers not exactly excited about
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advertising on twitter. the chances of them bringing in enough cash to pay off the various debts and burdens that he has has made dead investors a little bit wary. the banks involved have not been able to package them up and sell it off. there's this idea of, use tesla as collateral. as you pointed out, he sent a tweet about 90 minutes ago california time where he said, in addition to what you quoted, as stocks may move in ways that are decoupled from their long-term potential. the issue here is tesla stock has been diving in the last few months. there's many reasons but one of which may be the fact that he's the ceo of tesla, the ceo of space x, and now he's running twitter almost single-handedly. he's distracted right now. if you are a shareholder of tesla, you might be concerned about that. kriti: certainly something to keep an ion.
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the s&p 500, the eighth largest company on the benchmark. thank you for breaking it down for us. let's get over to the story on credit suisse. another company that seems to begin trouble, maybe not. 4.3 billion capital increase, giving the ceo what he needed to carry out the restructuring. this comes in the context of a lot of liquidity stories. this is important because in october, there was so much of funds exiting credit suisse because of solvency rumors. do you think they put it to rest? manus: what this capital raising does, it allows them to accelerate the process of transformation. they told the market, when you dig into this, they offered the stock at a 32% discount. they priced everything that they could. they threw everything at this to get it away. the saudi's are big and long
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into credit suisse. saudi arabia taking up 1.7 billion last week. will this allow them to accelerate the transformation of plans? kriti: i have to bring it right back to the markets. at the end of the day, credit suisse is warning as a -- of a fifth straight unprofitable quarter. what does that due to the stock relative to its deal book? compared to any of the global financial stocks, a lot of pain for this particular company. manus: francine caught up with the chairman last week. this goes back to the same question i asked him in the summertime. you have a stock which is on the floor. how do you retain people? the upside is this. they have robust capital. that's what the market judges these banks on. in terms of the capital resources that you have to deploy, 14% relative to the third quarter. 12.6% in the third quarter.
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it's all about capital. kriti: it is. it's interesting because you are seeing this in the states as well. that's where they are starting to see pressure. you are losing some of the capital for the biggest banks like jp morgan and goldman. this is becoming a global story. not just credit suisse. manus: it is indeed. friday. we didn't break anything. we welcome you to the show. 1:30 p.m. ppi meeting from the united states of america. the u.s. wholesale inventories at 3:00 as well as the university of michigan consumer sentiment survey. whether they defy the banking ceos. a final piece of data for the fed officials before that policy meeting for december. kriti: the portuguese and spanish prime ministers along with the french president attending a meeting in spain. the ecb takes part and a fireside chat on baking
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>> we don't think the bear market is over yet. our forecast on earnings is materially below the street. that's becoming a consensus view. i think our forecasts are even below this new level that people are talking about. kriti: morgan stanley's chief investment officer on what next year might bring. one of wall street's most vocal bears. let's get another view now with chief investment officer over at flow bank who joins us early this morning. thank you as always. let's start with one of your calls that struck me this morning, that we are nearing the end of the tightening cycle. what happens to the stock market if we don't?
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ety: we are seeing disinflation across the board. we know there are improvements in supply chains. there are improvements in costs. we know that generally inflation should be coming down. the fed should be able to stop around 5% as the market is currently pricing in. my worry at some point next year is that inflation plateaus or stops falling and the fed has to reprice more rate hikes that would take another leg down. although at this point, we are taking to slow legs down quite easily. we might be pressing this in closer than expected. manus: good morning. it's interesting. if i said to you, we are going to have a plethora of 75 basis point hikes in a very compressed time, i would have said to you what the start of the year that it could have been enough a lot worse. we are down 17% so far this year , the worse than tooth out --
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since 2008. there's a real lack of ability to recover. it's the worst year for gains to losses since 1974. do you get the sense that there's an exhaustion in this market and that we are ready to capitulate? esty: well it felt that way over the summer when we had a good rally and it felt that way over the last couple months when we had a good rally and a couple bad days like monday and tuesday that showed you that a lot of investors are not yet ready to capitulate. we've had our client outlook offense for 2023 and i'd say three quarters of clients tell us the worst is not behind them and they expect we are going to have another tough time early in 2023. that sentiment remains extremely negative, extremely bearish. positioning is very light. at some point, they suggest that we are arriving on that
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capitulation now. the first half of 2023 is going to stay very choppy. could be painful, could have another leg down. whether we have to break those september lows are not, i think that will depend on the data coming up in the next few weeks. kriti: manus calls it capitulation. i will use a different word. complacency. this is crucial when we talk about the moving target that is people hopping back into the equity market. the bond market as well. it was supposed to be before the u.s. midterm elections or straight after. it was supposed to be ahead of the rally. when do we see that pivot point, what does that mean? esty: at this point, we have seen the peak in yields. it's difficult to see us going back through those times of earlier in the year. i think that's going to be a support for markets. we are mostly focused on earnings. we are seeing that this is weighing on markets.
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this worry that earnings are going to be even worse than expected. we've seen the downgrades come in. they are continuing. at this point, the markets become almost too pessimistic. we have a couple of tailwinds that are being underappreciated, whether it's the dollar retreating, these improving supply chains, the massive cost cutting that we are hearing pretty much across the board now. those suggest that earnings will be able to hold up better than some of these worst-case expectations. the market is trying to find which levels to adapt to at this point. manus: ok. now, adapting and accepting and tolerating china risk is a complicated growth picture. sounds like my life. it's a complicated picture. jp morgan says 5% growth is achievable next year. you will have to have a hell of a lot go right.
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how much china would you be prepared to take? would you prefer to be longer fixed income which was the darling trade a while ago and then it suffered brutally? how much china do you take? esty: today, we've priced and a lot of the recent good news in chinese markets. the outlook is certainly improving for 2023. the reopening was accelerated by the protests. it won't be without hurdles. that is certainly a positive. support for growth from policymakers is increasing. that's another positive. of course, finally getting those measures to help the real estate market are going to be a positive. we need to make sure that the regulation of the big tech sector has slowed or stopped, that there is some support there. it's looking more asymmetric. the upside is looking more obvious than the downside at this point. we are never safe from a
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negative surprise. we know it's going to be a complicated reopening path. i think equity risk for the whole of the year. again, not an obvious straight line up. certainly an improvement, especially given still very cheap valuations. manus: we certainly have had a pretty stupendous run-up. those property stocks up 11%, built on hope and aspiration. thank you very much. coming up, we discussed credit suisse is $4.3 billion fundraiser and how it wasn't a luxurious dinner, it was a rights issue. this. -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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o let's get to the first word news. >> china and saudi arabia have agreed to hold regular summits. chinese president xi jinping reported to have agreed with saudi arabia for the relationship to be a comprehensive partnership. they signed energy and investment deals. the u.k. a setting out a package of post-brexit reforms to boost its financial services industry, including relaxing rules on smaller banks. the treasury says they will repeal hundreds of pages of eu regulation. chancellor jeremy hunt says the regulatory changes aim to deliver an agile, proportionate
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and homegrown regulatory regime. u.s. basketball player brittney griner has been released from detention in russia in exchange for an arms dealer, known as the merchant of death. while greiner's return was celebrated in biden's party, the democratic chair of the senate relations committee said it is a deeply disturbing decision. former peruvian president pedro castille was facing 20 years in prison if found guilty of rebellion, he was ousted on wednesday for trying to dissolve congress and was detained in lima while trying to reach the mexican embassy. mexico said it would grant asylum if asked. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: simone foxman in doha
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thank you. kriti: what is striking me is these commodity moves. this idea that the property market and housing market in china, a lot of anticipation is becoming a bigger part of the consensus narrative that we will see a turnaround. look at what it is doing to the commodity picture, copper shares up. steel is the big mover, up 3.7%. manus: you have iron ore at four month high. bonds have moved on hundred basis points from the peak. basis - [announcer] imagine we wihaving fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in
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daybreak: europe." i'm manus cranny in dubai with kriti gupta. kriti: global stocks and treasuries climb as producer price growth shown to cool. momentum weakening, china's inflation measures soften as the economy softens. xi jinping as willing to boost oil trading with saudi arabia. credit suisse completes a $4.3 billion capital raise giving the embattled swiss bank the funds it needs for restructuring. manus: good morning and welcome. we have delivered activity after day five, good to have you with me. it is all about china, the builders are on fire, the momentum is moving but there is this deep back risk in the market. we have geopolitical risk from putin, from the threats and
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rhetoric he uses, that is a malevolent underbelly to this risk on elsewhere. kriti: it really is. you see that in the equity market and the bond market and the commodity market. walk us through the cross asset picture. manus: there you go, you have the equity market and we have it punching us through. you have this risk on narrative in the equity markets. kriti: let's talk about the asia story, at the core you hit the nail on the head, the idea that is the china story. we are seeing the commodities picture and i would argue the correlation is showing up in the asia-pacific index, up 1.3%. the ripple effect is catching my eye. asia has been rallying but europe and the united states are not following by the same margin. that story ends today in the preliminary trading. euro stocks futures up zero
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0.4%. manus: let's get back to the credit suisse story. $4.3 billion capital increase giving the ceo the funds needed to carry out the restructuring. investors agree to abide 98.2% of the stock on sale. we are joined from singapore. the capital increase is in. the buffers are stop, the larders are full. what does it mean for credit suisse, what happens next? patrick: i think this is an important moment for credit suisse. it is cathartic, they have this 4 billion capital increase like deutsche bank in 2017. they boosted their capital back then. people want to see credit suisse and execute on its restructuring
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plan, and hopefully they will manage that. kriti: they also warned about a fifth unprofitable quarter. when does that turnaround and they get profitable again? patrick: that is a difficult question to answer. people are seeing shocking outflows from a couple weeks ago around $90 billion, the biggest i have ever seen in 3-4 years of covering the bank. they have to stop those and reverse them. that will be a key thing because wealth management where many outflows happened is a key business for credit suisse. there could be a cultural thing to get back to profitability. in the last few years they are chasing business where they might get fees of $100 million but they are seeing losses of billions. they need to make sure the risk management is properly aligned with the front office so those
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huge blow ups, archegos, do not happen again so investors are not blindsided in the future. manus: yep, they have to hope those outflows have stymied and perhaps drawn to a standstill before we can talk about bigger return to dividends. patrick winters on the credit suisse story. joining us now is octavio marenzi, ceo / co-founder, opimas. here we go, the rights issue is down, the saudi's are deep into credit suisse. do we see an accelerated deconstruction of credit suisse? octavio: i think management and the backs of their heads hope they have cash on hand so they can stay the course and not have to dismantle the bank. you do not really need that much money to sell off pieces, they
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could salafi investment bank, the trading operations. they do not need that capital injection to make that happen. what they are thinking about doing is staying the course and trying to keep these things together and not have to sell the family jewels to the market. on the street in zurich we are hearing credit suites and private bankers are told to call the clients and offer them an norm us interest rates on the -- enormous interest rates, so they are on the phone saying, we will give you up to 7% if you keep your money here and do not walk out the door. that started to smack of desperation. the wealth management unit generates 2 billion francs a year on net interest income, that will be decimated. they are looking at a risky strategy that might backfire badly. a lot of clients that credit
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suisse has an private banking are extremely conservative. they are people who put 99% of fixed-income and 1% in equity and think that is an excitement in their investment portfolio. kriti: there is a theme we are seeing in a lot of banks at least in the united states where there is acquisitions as a means of driving the next leg of growth for a lot of companies. you mentioned wealth management, some are mentioning e trading platforms, is that in the future for credit suites? octavio: in terms of acquiring somebody else, i think that is not in the cars at this stage. i do not know there is anyone interested in buying the entire unit of credit suites. individual pieces might be carved off but i do not know how wealth management is doing that. i am not convinced they will not sell off important parts of credit suites, and the restructuring might be to avoid
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that is much as they can because their influence and power is enormously reduced. i am not expecting them to snap of credit suites as a whole but regulators would not like to see that either. they are concerned about crating banks in the too big to fail category, and someone who acquires credit suites, that is an enormous bank that regulators will be worried about. manus: you cannot imagine, or maybe one should throw caution to the wind, and imagine the regulator would allow them to merge, but does the world need another csb? i thought we left that off in the 1990's were a counterparty. is that even going to be a salable -- assailable? octavio: i suppose that depends
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on what will be in csb, the banking business of cfsb is in the doldrums. looking at the ipo in the u.s., down 99%. i have never seen that number so small. that investment banking arm will not get a major price in selling it off. there are too many investment bankers to go around. people are laying them off. it will not get a high price at all. remaining it will not do any good at all. it does not do them any good whatsoever. they will have to get more creative than that. i do not see many options on the table for the investment banking unit. it will not get a great price. kriti: let's put this into the broader context of higher interest rates. everybody is game theorying when
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the tightening cycle will lend. -- will end. what does that mean for banks seeing pressure on the margins because of a deeply inverted yield curve? octavio: the inverted yield curve depends on what you look at, but banks are effective at not increasing interest rates on deposits, so for the banks, there is a steep yield curve because they are able to resist increasing money to pay on savings accounts. the net interest margin has increased by a substantial margin even though the yield curve is flat. with the case of credit suites, paying higher interest rates, that will happen to other banks as well. they cannot defile the laws of physics forever. -- they can't defy the laws of physics forever. the banks are benefiting enormously from these interest rates, but they cannot do that forever. manus: no, you can only promise
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to dance a few times. there better be some big onus is at barclays. -- big bonuses at barclays. how good is it going to be? octavio: the investment banking side will be a huge disappointment. everyone was expecting next to nothing. on the trading side it will be variable from one bank to the next. trading volumes are pretty much flat, up a few percent compared to last year, and we have seen some banks do well or do badly, there is not a common theme. investment banking, awful. trading, it depends on which bank you are in. a big dispersion in terms of
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jill: right now what we are saying is the continued deflation in china, we are also saying consumer prices cool off quite a bit, inflation not as high. this is partly the continued use of covid zero in china. this is for november, before we have seen the rollbacks in policy over the last few days. people not really leaving their homes, spending really depressed. these are signs of economic weakness. we are seeing that continued cool down, which will give the central bank a little room going forward to continue to ease policy. as a lot of other central banks hike interest rates, china has had a bit of room to continue easing. economists think going into the beginning of next year you might see another cut to the benchmark interest rates or see them look at the reserve requirement ratio for banks.
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there is room with prices cooling. manus: when you hear comments to keep picking up growth when the government plummets changes around zero covid, how much of next year's growth can be delivered via housing? put the scale of the housing market in context for our viewers. jill: the housing market is incredibly important. in addition to the covid rules this year, we have seen a huge part of the economy affected by the turmoil in the property sector, which is why you are seeing officials concentrate on that more. property stocks are rallying today probably because there will be this giant economic conference next week, and we are getting some indication there might be reconsideration of what officials are doing with the property market over the last
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couple of years. if the phrase housing is for living in a knot speculation disappears, maybe that is an indication the correct down on the property market is over. you might see the market pickup next year. manus: a lot of other sectors could do with a reprieve, from technology to housing to the asset management side. thank you for being with us. we have a business flash. simone: u.s. regular leaders are seeking to block microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of games publisher, activision-blizzard. the federal trade commission says it could curb a petition in the giving market by limiting rivals access to the company's biggest games. the transaction would turn microsoft into the number three gaming company behind tencent and sony. china eastern i's has become the
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first recipient -- chinese eastern airlines has become the first recipient of the passenger jet, a milestone in the aviation ambitions as it looks to take on airbus and boeing and follows years of planning, testing and delays. the c9-10 is do to fly commercially next spring. testable shortened production shifts at it shanghai factory as soon as monday and delay the on boarding of new hires. the plant will operate two 9.5 hour shifts per day. the move as to signs that demand for tesla's electric cars is not meeting expectations in china. that is your bloomberg business flash. kriti: simone foxman, we thank you. coming up, the u.s. labor market is still going strong according to the latest jobless claims
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kriti: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe/ ." a lot of attention on the jobs market continuing u.s. jobless claims rose, suggesting americans who are losing their jobs are having even more trouble finding a new one. our markets reporter is here to discuss more. it is a hot topic and has been for a year. it is not getting old anytime soon here it is this showing signs that the labor market is weakening? is there hope? >> a lot lot of focus on the continuing claims numbers that surged the highest since february earlier this year.
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a lot of people would take it with a grain of salt. the survey week was the week of thanksgiving, and a lot of us are busy eating turkey. as you can see on the chart, the rise in claims has been steady. the initial claims also rose a bit, taking the four week average to 230k. that is still a very low number for the u.s. economy. the unemployment rate is at a decade tight. manus: when we chat in the morning, you brought it up the breakevens are rolling down, the labor costs have been revised. displays to what powell said at the brookings institute of how we assess where we are.
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labor cost, 2.4% from 3.5%. what does that tell you? >> there was a steep revision down in unit labor costs yesterday which caused a significant bond rally. powell presented a different framework at his brookings institute speech. he spent a lot of time defecting from the unemployment rate and traditional phillips curve narrative to the more beverage curve narrative. that is a focus more on how many jobs are there per unemployed person. that is what we see from the data that feeds into wage inflation. he spent time defecting the importance to this data from the unemployment rate, and maybe he is trying to give himself some room showing if this data turns around and shows a softening without a substantial uptick in the unemployment rate, maybe that is enough to warrant a
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pause next year in the hiking cycle. kriti: there is a shortage of data to process for the federal reserve. let's talk about the data today. producer prices coming out, and sentiment data for the consumer. preview that. >> producer price inflation will give us a can't on the extent of the drop in core goods inflation. we know core goods inflation was one of the first to take off last year due to the bottlenecks in the supply chains, which have been eased. that white line is the core goods inflation, it has dropped dramatically. the importance for powell, i need to see disinflation come into the core services sector, that has been higher recently. core services is wages and rent, that is why we are focused on the labor market and want to see wage inflation tick down. perhaps today's ppi number can
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express the extent the good disinflation that hopefully might translate into core services coming down in next week's print. manus: i applaud your optimism, good disinflation. when bad news becomes that news, that is when we have to worry. rather than propagating bad news is good news for the fed. let's reflect on the china equity market move, it is where the risk on narrative lives eternal. battered and bruised but it is about whether they shift their language, whether they move from property being something for living in from speculation. the hold of the building industry is lit up a christmas tree this morning. kriti: just yesterday we were
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talking about a different sector rising in china, the casino stocks. to see that pivot and it is a different part of the market driving the story and trade in asian session, it is not just the equity story. check out the commodity story, copper up. steel, up about 3%. manus: you are channeling your inner dani burger. when you look at the bond market and the correlation between the equity market and the bond market and the dollar market cos nearly 98%. crude is up. iron ore at a four month high, we have rallied from the october low. kriti: to the point you made of
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the top of the show, we are talking about the china and ukraine stories and the federal reserve story. i am curious we will get commentary from the fomc about the china story and whether they will address it. a lot to digest in the coming days. later today we will be speaking with mercedes-benz's ceo. you can watch that interview right here on bloomberg at 1:00 p.m. london time. up next, "bloomberg markets: europe." stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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