haidi: very good morning and welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." sheri: good evening from new york. top stories. world's biggest central bangs will wrap up the most aggressive year for rate hikes in four decades as a fight against inflation rages on. haidi: chinese officials downplay covid restrictions. sheri: the u.s. will send a delegation to china as washington seeks support from allies for its curbs on chinese tech. this was a picture across wall street. a down week with the dow seeing its worst week since september. recession fears. the fmoc decision on wednesday.

and all eyes on the cpi numbers out on tuesday. inflation numbers have dropped markets this week. on average the s&p 500 has moved 3% in either direction on cpi day. the tenure yelled close to three point 6%. and a bad week for oil prices. the biggest tumble under weekly basis since april. have recession fears and a risk off sentiment. and the question is what happens to those inflation numbers and tons and tons of central bank decisions this week. >> a lot of investors waiting for clarity on the path ahead and we can see the lack of conviction coming through in a company that has been declining over the last few weeks setting us up for mixed trading in asia. the other factor is what is happening in china.

we are seeing cases spiking that a lot of doubts over the numbers being reported and economists in some corners questioning whether this vast piece of reopening can be sustained. new zealand is trading in the red. there is some cause for optimism. it is coming through in the latest university of michigan survey. the uptick we saw in consumer sentiment, broad-based across a number of metrics but it is tracking partly to falling gasoline prices but that could be welcome news to the fed. sheri: an exciting week. and not only welcome news to the fed but to central banks around the world because they have had to tighten along with the fed even the global micro namic conditions -- macroeconomic conditions. he also have the ecb and the boe decisions this week as well as other central banks are mexico, norway, philippines and they are all expected to hike. haidi: and it is the domino

effect. the boe, this would be ninth rate hike in the last year and all of those em's and we have china domestic activity data along with the work conference looking at what 2023 will look like for the chinese economy. and markets might be aligned when it comes to short-term expectations on what the fed will do but we are watching the guidance from chair powell. if you push out to 2023, they are expecting a rate of pullback from the peak of the time we get to that point. that may test the amount of patience from the fed chair this week. let's get a preview of the trading weight. garfield reynolds is with us. the markets are trying to deal with this 24 hours of fast and furious rate decisions.

>> one thing we have to take into account is there is a lot of money on the sidelines. a lot has been going on with trading, commodities, stocks, bonds. thanks are going up and down rapidly on not a lot of news right now. there are a lot of investors that have gone, look, we don't want to touch this market. there is too much pain. it is not worth the candle. putting that concern to one side, it is going to be an extremely busy week and the big question is, how will -- how well even in the short term will investor expectations aligned with what the fed will do. jerome powell, the last thing he said was, it is possible that it is time to downshift as early as december. we have a strong ppi and strong

jobs especially wages. we have a strong cp -- -- if we have a strong cpi, you could argue the fed should stay with a 70. i think -- with a 75 basis points. that is an immediate risk. and the longer term risk is that the market expects the fed to be cutting by the second half next year. market prices for inflation to drop rapidly. the latest -- two year breakevens are about five percentage points below that so you are expecting a rapid deceleration in inflation. that would require a severe recession. bonds might be priced for a severe recession if you look at the yield curve. stocks don't look like they are. something has to give at some stage. sheri: we had a bloomberg survey

showing top money managers are expecting a little upside for global stocks in 2023 not to mention that china seems to be a buy. is that what people are thinking? the china reopening could offset some of the risk that you just talked about? garfield: i think they are looking for potential diversification. and more solidly good news stories. and china at the moment from the point of investors is a good news story. investors have long been waiting for china to abandon covid zero which is economically not in the country's interest and therefore not in the interest of them as investors. china has noticeably moved away from covid zero. it looks like that is done and dusted with pure instead of talking about how we have to win

the fight against covid with these restrictions, they instead are saying, it is like the flu. it is not worth therefore the restrictions they were talking about. the big test will be when -- if cases sore, -- soar, does that cause problems in the health system and another flip-flop? it seems unlikely. with that, and china's inflation numbers came in the other day much more straightforward, much more allowing for china to boost stimulus. we also had some signs last week that china's real estate problems are getting a bit more like they might be resolvable, if that is a word. and that being the case, that is a trifecta of reasons to be optimistic about china's stock market. not many other stockmarkets out there have that sort of

combination of tick tick tick. with all of that going on, there has long been an anticipation that china cannot stay at the low valuations. it has been close to the lowest valuations it has been out for the last decade. no wonder that stock pickers and investors are looking at china again sagging, this looks like -- saying, this looks like a much more straightforward upside bias. sheri: garfield reynolds with an outlook for the markets. let's stay in china because top chinese officials continue to down flow -- downplay the risks of covid-19 as cities across the country dismantle many restrictions. stephen engle is following the developments. quite a u-turn from the rhetoric

coming from beijing officials a couple months ago and they seem to be firmly on the path to exit covid zero now. >> it is an absolute u-turn and the question is, will it work? is the new narrative after several years of beijing saying, this is the most pressing health emergency for the country and the biggest help risk to you as a household in china, one .4 billion people. and then to suddenly reverse course and say, it is ok and it is just like the flu in terms of a tablet he rates of 0.1%, that is what the top adviser to the government is saying. the fatality rate of omicron, they are singling that out, saying it is in line with the flu. zero point 1% fatality rate and infections rarely reach the lungs.

these are front-page articles in the people's daily saying the local governments have swiftly put into practice the 10 new covid measures announced by the national health commission last week including reducing the mass pcr testing and we did see the nationwide numbers on saturday drop by some 20% from friday down to 10514 new local infections. but doubts have been raised about the accuracy of the aid -- of the data because there is far fewer testing. the kiosks on the street corners across china are being removed. there is one right there. they are being removed so there is fewer testing as well. the numbers will not necessarily reflect a potential surge and infections. some estimates say we could see as many as 2 million deaths in the next few months. we have the lunar new year holiday coming up, a 40 day period.

the actual holiday is seven or six days from the 21st two the 27th of january and many people will be traveling. will this spread further? will there be more cases? will the consumer come out as they usually do pre-pandemic to help prop up the economy? there are still many variables. the people of china are not stupid. they have been conditioned for years to worry about their health and getting locked down. there will be some hesitancy. haidi: in the meantime when it comes to the economy, a lot to watch out for this week for china. >> all of these economic headwinds will be central at the central economic work conference that begins on thursday, december 15. there is going to be -- they will lay out the priorities for the upcoming national people's congress in the first week of march. i think what we are really looking for in addition to more clarity on the 10 recto's coming

from beijing on the relaxation of covid zero, the biggest drag, but we want to look at is what they will say about the property market. if the curbs on the property sector are overcome a will they announce that? will there be a flood of new economic stimulus to the property market? will there be a relaxation of the mortgage limits on new home purchases and the like? there is a lot to come out of that as well as the subcommittees that will -- sub meetings that will also be held. haidi: our chief worth asia correspondent, stephen engle. su keenan the headlines. >> the u.s. will send a delegation to china in the coming days following up on president biden's reading with xoi last month in indonesia. the visit is to continue responsibly managing the competition and to explore potential areas of operation.

the visit will also prepare for antony blinken's trip to china early next year. to pakistan where the army is accusing afghan forces of artillery and mortar fire across the border killing six people and wounding 17 others. pakistan says it responded in a measured way to what it alleges is an untoward attack. this follows a series of deadly incidents that has raised tensions. and the hong kong court has sentenced former media mogul jimmy lai to five years and nine months in prison for fraud. this as the city crocs -- cracks down on dissidents. he was also reportedly find and band from working in company management for eight years. he is already serving 20 months for his role in unauthorized assemblies during the 20

antigovernment protest. nasa's or ryan spacecraft has splashed down in the pacific ocean off the coast of mexico. i successful end to a test flight that sent the unaccrued vehicle around the moon and back to earth. the flight helps pave the way for nasa's program to return humans to the moon later in the decade. the next mission aims to fly astronauts around the moon in 2024. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. sheri: reports that the u.s. has directly asked japan to cooperate on its chip text were curbs against china. more on that and more from tufts university. bokeh capital partners helps us kick off this extremely busy week for central bank decisions. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: take a look at the week ahead. but the world's biggest central banks are holding their monetary policy meetings. busy 24 hours on the heels of u.s. inflation data coming out on wednesday. the fed is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. the ecb also expected to pull back on its recent pace of hikes

to a half-point on thursday helped buy the less aggressive fed. investors also expect a half-point out of the bank of england, it's a ninth hike we have seen over the last year. emerging markets that we have already flagged including mexico deciding on interest rates. sheri: if all of that were not enough, we are also watching f ried expected to testify on the collapse of his crypto empire. he is listed as a witness alongside john j rainey. a very busy week ahead. [laughter] haidi: our next guest says lower prices should give the fed more room to hike about slowing the rate hike pace. and though short-term term we see markets aligned with what chair powell has been flagging. take a look at 2023 though and

there is a big divergence and the pullback that we could see from the peak. will that create opportunities or more dislocation and volatility? kim: i think volatility is opportunity as long as you know what stocks you want to own and what prices you are comfortable at. but i agree with you, the bond market and the stock market have bifurcated at this point where we are expecting much higher right -- rates on the equity side and it certainly looks further out the curve that they are looking to actual rate decreases, not increases, in 2023 if you do the math on the 10 year. sheri: what are you liking at the moment? text seems to be an area we keep going back to what the geopolitical issues, our semiconductor still interesting? kim: they really are and as you

point out it is the geopolitical play. i think you will have an interesting piece coming up in a moment talking about the japan-u.s. relationship. all of the large regions in the world have finally figured out having one area in the world that is next to china that produces really high-end equipment that we all depend on now is probably not a great idea. semiconductors are in my circle of things i'm very interested in and this is going to be a longer-term play as well. when the decisions about where things are made and who is making them gets straightened out. but in the meantime they are the only devices that give us productivity. so that is why i like to have them in my portfolio. sheri: you take into account the yield outlook as well? we know they are sensitive to where yields go from here but at the same time globally we have a

diversions, we talk about central banks hiking this week but we also have the pboc holding or even loosening a little bit and boj on a easing path as well. kim: especially when they were used as both servers and pcs alone, i agree these were very rate sensitive things to invest in. but i think we will have a little decoupling of that largely because businesses cannot find people and technology labor, if you cannot find it, capital is what you replace it with. semiconductors are going to replace people. i think that could loosen up some of the linkage between rates, the economy and who buys chips when. sheri: we have seen central banks become the last rescuers in this global macro environment

of many challenges. we have seen the boe and the fed step in in times of trouble and stress. we had an interesting report from the bank of international settlements last week pointing to the sheer scale of the fx swap markets and how it could be a blind spot in global finance. do you see this as a risk? kim: i do and i think i was an early person that was looking for where the discontinuity between the interest rates in the u.s. and the strength of the dollar, that was going to break something and it looks like the fx swap market might be the thing that breaks whenever -- when we once again start changing the rate at which interest rates change throughout the world and that is the driver of this. it is the rate at which the different areas are changing. they have to change together but they were not at a certain

point. sheri: we are expecting to see markets also expecting to see the fed hiking rates for now but slowing down much faster then what federal -- then what fed officials have signaled. where does that leave the dollar? kim: right now it is declining which is good for the u.s. most of the companies i have in my portfolio are based in the u.s. it has been difficult for these companies that export their products to sell them. it has been great for travelers. the world has to come back. i see the dollar falling relative to the rest of the basket of currencies over the next year if things are going to go back to normal, whatever that is pure -- whatever that is. sheri: the new normal. you can get a roundup of the

stories that we have been talking about in today's edition of daybreak that can be accessed at dayb . you can get the information on the companies and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: a quick check of the business flash headlines. twitter will relaunch its twitter subscription service on monday for eight dollars a month. apples ios users will also get access for $11 per month. the relaunch of twitter blue was suspended in november due to a wave of impersonations. a misalignment of databases has caused the details of some customers to be released publicly.

names, numbers and addresses of some customers. the newspaper reported about 130,000 customers were affected. and being toasted by verizon therapeutics in what would be the biggest competition for the company. a deal may be announced in the coming days. sanofi said it was pulling out from an offer for verizon. coming up next, we will talk about australia's plan to cut energy prices to ease pressure and the furious reaction we have seen from energy players. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: the former u.s. treasury

secretary, larry summers, says china's move to abandon its covid zero stance could be the biggest policy shift in decades. he told wall street week that it may be to search -- too soon to make predictions and the implications of the change. larry: i think we know two things -- we know a big change in china happened because of an expression of popular will and protests. that's a profound thing for the governance of that superpower with one full -- with 1.4 million people. you are quite right. we don't yet know how this is going to work out. is this going to be a successful rejoining of the reality of the rest of the world or is this going to lead to catastrophic delegitimizing performance of the chinese health care system

and we don't know. either way, there's a big chance china will be a quite different country six months from now than it is today, so i think all of us are always watching china carefully, but we need to be watching china much more carefully over the next six months, when you will be seeing leadership change, below the level of xi jinping, of course. at the same time, we are going to be seeing probably the biggest set of policy experiments we have seen in china in decades. haidi: former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers. goldman sachs says its road to reopening could be bumpy. what are they worried about? annabelle: essentially what goldman sachs is concerned about is this path to reopening in china is not going to be a smooth one.

add that to a risk a recession in the u.s. and europe and couple with that, we could be looking at a tough economic climate coming into 2023 and china could present a growth risk. goldman sachs are positive on the mainland. these comments did come from the president speaking video -- speaking via video link, but said business in china, particularly in the capital markets is doing well and they are looking for more opportunities ahead, particularly in china's mainland asset industry. one thing we are watching closely is any sort of opportunity is the company one, considering we have the worth conference taking place and that could give us more support for china's property sector. perhaps we could get officials signaling this crackdown on deleveraging could be over. add to that more support to prop up demand from the consumer side

, so these are two areas we will be watching closely. we have seen investors are buying on the rumors here, that huge run up we had in property stocks above the bloomberg index, the 200 week average high. haidi: it is a bit like groundhog day because i feel every day i'm asking you, it seems like investors are turning more bullish on china. annabelle: i guess you could say another one -- we have seen that reaction in the markets. this shot looking at the asia index, basically hong kong-lifted chinese stocks. that october low is at 38% jump to our we are today, surpassing the gains we had on the old world index. but people are more optimistic despite the headwinds in place, specifically what we were discussing with goldman sachs. the path to reopening will not

be smooth and china. some economists say we could see a peeling back or rather restrictions put back in place given the case spike. but blackrock is one of them saying they are positive on the outlook and that earnings in china have a potential upside. what makes a more positive is given we do have a recession in the u.s. and europe, but it is all down to the changing messaging around covid zero even as we have, we hear that top official saying health risk from the omicron variant was basically like the flu. shery: but that optimism is there. the bloomberg story showing a 60% of respondents calling for a supply. su: more on the covid-19 develop its. the policy chief of japan ruling the liberal -- the ruling democratic party has met with the taiwanese president.

a first visit from japan's ruling party to taiwan in 19 years. it comes as tokyo prepares to boost military spending. they discussed taiwan's participation at the trade deal and partnerships on chips. thailand has reached its target of welcoming 10 million foreign visitors this year, and drastic contrast was left -- with less than half a million in 2021. tie authorities expect foreign tourist revenue of more than $14 billion this year. recovery may be faster depending on how soon china reopens borders. thailand is targeting 20 million overseas rivals and $43 billion in foreign tourist receipts next year. flights -- france and morocco are set to face off in the semifinals and the world cup. captain harry king missed a penalty shot that would have brought those scores even. morocco became the first african

or arab team to reach the semi's, beating portugal to set up the match against france. the french president is heading to cutter -- headed to qatar to watch the game. the orion spacecraft has splashed down. the and crude vehicle went around the minute beth to earth. -- back to earth. it paves the way to return humans to the moon later in the decade and aims to fly astronauts to the moon in 2002 4. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. haidi: a plan to cut domestic energy prices in australia is facing hurdles in parliament, oppositions -- opposition before it even gets off the ground. we heard the details of the plan and now really a fast and

furious pushback from stakeholders. paul: perhaps not surprising but power and gas bills have been soaring. everyone here has experienced a bit of bill shock. the war in ukraine the key behind this. the october budget forecast a 56% rise in household energy cost. the solution, a price cap of 12 dollars on gas come this is for the mistake market. the s -- the export market is unaffected. so far, so good but so many hurdles. the senate trying to get this through, the greens say they are not going to support it but propose compensation for coal producers. they want stronger action on climate. gas companies unhappy saying this is going to impact them. shery: how bad are those concerns from energy producers?

paul: this is where the rhetorical tape gets going. putting the price up is going to hurt investment, reduce supply over time. they say the bowl of dollar per gigajoule will hurt investment down the track. credit suisse says it could be a declaration of war -- the industry threatening and ad campaign in opposition. we've seen this before in australia what the carbon tax and mining tax having devastating political effect. this time could be different. the energy minister disagrees. he says energy should not need wartime level prices to ensure ongoing investment and drilling viable. that price cac -- the price cap has been below that for the past decade. so a fierce debate expected but i have to see this not getting through, they don't want to seem

blocking household relief just before christmas. shery: coming up next, the u.s. reportedly asking japan to cooperate on the chip export curbs against china. we talk about increasing geopolitical risks in the tech space. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: the u.s. will send a delegation to china and coming days following up on president biden's meetings with xi jinping . the visit coming as washington raises the pressure on china with access to chip technology. during his now it's christopher miller, president -- associate professor of history at tufts university. great to have you with us. what do you make of china's response so far and what can beijing do against this pressure? christopher: so far, china hasn't done much in response. the new curbs against -- that has -- the biden initiation imposed. but it is in a weak position right now, hugely reliant on imported chips, chipmaking tools in the u.s., japan, taiwan and south korea. retaliation would hurt it as much as it would hurt the u.s.

or any of its allies. shery: we heard from a top white house official talk about how china's diplomacy's actually backfiring, especially with these chip pressures. what are we expecting in terms of beijing trying to make new friends? christopher: it seems like the tone from beijing has shifted little bit in the past couple weeks. ultimately, the clash between the u.s. and china over taiwan, over primacy in the western pacific is a long run trend and we should expect ups and downs in the rhetoric, but it's not going to change. at stake is whether china controls taiwan or not and which country has military dominance. as long as those questions are still uncertain and a matter of dispute between the two powers, we should expect a bumpy relationship between washington and beijing. haidi: there was a lot of optimism and we did see the highest level meetings. so much of what was talk about and agreed on was the low hanging fruit.

does this seem the rivalry with guardrails is the best case hope markets have? christopher: i think even those hoping for guardrails have little evidence to show for that. yes, we had a meeting between xi and biden, but the reality is they did not agree on much. there is an impending arms race underway in the region. i don't think a summit between two leaders are going to change that fundamental dynamic. i would not be betting particularly much on the result of this meeting leading to any broader that todd -- as long as the military buildup continues. taiwan remains a priority of china's leaders. haidi: it sounds like this continued strategic rivalry, which is the biggest of our

time, does that inevitably lead to a future bifurcation when it comes to key strategic tech? to that end, how long does it take for china to be able to domestically produce enough to catch up or forge these relationships and friendships that would be benefits so -- that would be beneficial? christopher: i think we are seeing bifurcation in action right now. there's too may linkages between the world's biggest economies. but we've had the u.s. and chinese tech sectors in a very real way becoming less entangled than the past. the chip curb is just the latest in a series trying to untangle this relationship and i don't think it's going to be the last. anyone who has bet on the economic tide to stabilize the relationship has had a hard time

explaining what has been going on the past half decade. it has taken a long time for markets and industry actors to catch up with the reality that policies are clearly driving and economics are in the backseat. haidi: in the past, we have seen china's foremost strategy when it comes to diplomacy and making the strategically useful friends through debt diplomacy, investment, soft power. that has obviously changed with the nature of the structural deficiency of china's economy. what is going to be the key forward for beijing as it tries to make these new alliances? christopher: we've seen china try to be adept with its diplomacy. the infrastructure focus, the belt and road now focused on digital primacy and we've seen

china try to take advantage of the dislocation of the russia-ukraine war and all of it with second order effect across the markets. with the president meeting with saudi leaders this week, i think it is indicative of the fact that china is trying to find new partners even in countries that have historically been close to the united states. it is still diplomacy and its giving options for country standing between the u.s. and beijing trying to attract concessions from both sides. shery: who would be some natural partners for beijing as it tries to make new friends? christopher: we've seen a lot of focus on russia this year with china describing better deals from russia this year. in the middle east, china has been more active than ever on the diplomatic front as well as the commercial front. in southeast asia, there are plenty of relationships china is

trying to enhance or amend in the places of the policies in china's business relationship. in europe, there is a focus from chinese diplomats to try to reduce some of the shift in anti-chinese sentiment over the past couple of years and make sure europeans realize there are economic benefits from doing business with beijing. around the world, chinese leaders are focused on trying to find new friends and create diplomatic balance with the u.s. haidi: christopher miller, associate professor of international history at tufts university. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio and hear more from the big newspapers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team there. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: us trillion employers are failing to near the pay gap between men and women with finance firms among the worst offenders. this is pretty depressing data to kick off this week but what are we seeing in terms of the

two steps back the daily -- the data is showing us? amy: absolutely. and last 12 months, the gender pay gap has stayed the same. that's an average across the industry. a survey that takes in about 4.5 thousand employees here in australia and progress has stalled. it's the first time that gap has failed to narrow in than nine years data has been collected. no progress made, though wages have gone up slightly across the board, but that hasn't translated into higher pay for women. haidi: why? amy: there are so many factors. this report talks about the entrenched bias sometimes in the hiring process. the fact there are more men in senior management. there's a lot of progress to be made in board representation,

but in australia, we have a gendered workforce, so there is a high concentration of women working in the lowest-paid sectors in this country, including health care and education. also, threat the hiring process, 25% of women -- -- changed jobs in the past 12 months but that has not translated to a pay boost of any kind. that is coming back to the gendered bias in the hiring process. the report says there is no different in how men and women negotiate pays, it's likely to be the bias that exists in the recruiting process. haidi: what about the rest of the world? how does australia's situation sit? amy: there are two ways to look at it. if you look at the latest data, so you ranks poorly for a developed nation on these issues. we rank 43rd in the world when it comes to the gender pay gap

and trying to close that has become a real issue. the wda did tell me in the last 12 months that gap has widened in places like canada and new zealand. at least it did not whiten here, it stalled but that's not an ideal result and nothing to be particulate proud of. shery: it's an exhausting story isn't it? what can be done about it at this point? amy: it is. there are plenty of movements, organizations, trying to close this gap. we have the 30% club here in australia, the 40-40 vision advocating for 40% men, 40% women, 20% any gender on boards and managers. but we know last week they put out some data saying while they

have managed to recruit a lot of zeros -- a lot of companies, it only represents 10% of those companies. women i've spoken to over the last week say at the very least, we need to keep measuring this, highlighting it, trying to ring the conversation to the table and support women in different roles, making their way to management decisions where they are making hiring decisions and supporting flexibility in the workplace. that is one good piece of news out of this, there does appear to be more flexibility offered in the workplace which would support women to move through the ranks of workforces. it is still only one in five boards in these companies considered to be gender-balanced. so there is very much a big task ahead in australia. shery: amy bainbridge with that

another depressing story on gender equality. here's a big check of the latest isn't/headlines. that's according to the block which cites an unnamed source. 507 capital has brought multiple claims from hedge fund clients of the collapsed crypto exchange. air india may order up to 500 jets from airbus and boeing. it set to include as many as 400 narrowbody jets and including the airbus a350's and boeing 787's and 777x. tata formerly took charge of air india earlier this year. sinopec has signed an agreement to build a refinery and produce.

the chinese company has signed mo use with a saudi oil producer to build a petrochemical facility in saudi arabia. collaborations are aimed at helping the energy transition. haidi: these are the stocks we are watching as trading opens in australia. seasonally -- seasonal holes of chinese steel due to week demands. iron ore rising. also watching mineral resources at rio tinto. this is bloomberg. ♪

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