shery: you're watching daybreak asia coming live from new york, sydney and hong kong. anabelle: australia has come online. haidi: asia set to open with a positive lead from wall street building ahead from the crucial leading on consumer prices. china files a dispute with the wto over u.s. ship exports as a china's joining the effort over beijing's tech ambitions. a nice occasion of abdicating -- and execution of accountability from this week's banking committee. shery: take a look at how u.s. futures are coming online. we're singh a mixed picture, muted at the opening, of the s&p 500. we saw every sector of the s&p gained ground ahead of tuesday cpi numbers. we have seen inflation rocking equity markets this year. out of the 11 times we had cpi

numbers, seven of them we saw markets gain ground. it was the best post-e cpi day in november when the numbers eased a bit. we'll be watching what happens to the inflation figures. we saw treasury yields continue to the -- continue to rally the 10 year past the 360 level. we had a rebound in oil prices in new york. we seen upside in the asia section, after we heard we heard we don't have an outlook when it comes to the consumption of the keystone pipeline. concerns continue but this week is about those cpi numbers followed by a 24 hour hectic decision from policy including from the fed, ecb and boe. anabelle: this is being called a make or break week for markets. there will be a lot of things for traders to be juggling. in the open and the australian session, the asx 200 in the green, reflecting the trend we will see throughout asian trading.

in terms of everything else, bond yields tracking the moves. the dollar is holding pretty flat. we saw the green back strengthening in the price session. it really is all about the u.s. inflation prints but there are other things we are monitoring as well including in new zealand. we continue to see these signs of economic weakness from rising rates. also tighter financing conditions because home sales slumped in november. other factors we are watching, in china, expanding covid case numbers, more stress on the hospital systems. and geopolitical tensions as well. given we just heard that japan could now be following the u.s. in imposing export controls on the chipmaking technology or equipment to mainland china. we're singh futures .2 a fractionally weaker start. china is the sole market in the trade in the red. this is the picture across the rest of the board. the yen dropped as much as 1%

against the greenback strength. head of the inflation reading. shery: let's talk about those inflation readings. the u.s. cpi print expected it show easing in november. as the federal reserve goes into its last meeting of the year. our policy editor kathleen hays here with the latest. are we expecting this to make a difference for the fed? kathleen: at least in terms of messaging. are we going to get a more hawkish of jay powell after the decision, less hawkish, what are the dots going to look like? they probably made up their mind of a versus 75, but at the last minute some could change there. a bit in throw off the medium bit. here's what is expected in the report. cpi year-over-year expected to come down from 7.3% -- to 7.3% from 7.7%, definitely an improvement. energy, 6.1% for november, 6.3%

before. an improvement from 0.3% in november to 0.4%. flat on the cpi, 0.3%. let's look at the key factors. we've got a look at rent, mortgage, implied rent, that is expected to be peeking around 0.7%. food at home, 0.4%. 1.5% in gasoline prices gives fuels and utilities and isaac drop. apparel, they are all on sale, inventory is trying to be brought down by special sales used in car, truck prices have been falling down. that will not look good. let's look at the year-over-year numbers because some of these numbers are still high. look at the fuels and utility, 14%. if the drop in energy prices continues, you never know what will happen in ukraine or china demand. food at home, 11% down, a lot further to come down.

rent at 7%. t track transportation, all of these numbers are high. that is why people say the fed has a ways to go. you mentioned surprises and how the october report which came out in november 10 was below what was expected. we have a nice rally in stocks. the month before it was above the opposite reaction. here's the deal. the fed looked at that october report on november 10 and said, that is good news but that is just one number. what if this number does not surprised to the downside or it is to the upside a bit? these numbers are volatile, right? they are never perfect and they get revised. this is the question that, it's not too late. the fed will not change their course. if we are looking to what happens next, to when they finally pause next year, whatever they are signaling

through the dots, that is going to be an important indicator. what jay powell will be parsed, time and time again for days and weeks to come. haidi: kathleen hays there. let's check the market move. our correspondent for asia, garfield reynolds. it looks like a positive senate -- set up for cpi and the fed. do markets move and pass that? markets are working with the idea that the fed has carried out an extraordinary level of policy tightening this year. it's expected, in this year with a step back down to only 50 basis points, as a rate hike, therefore the job is just about done. we can look forward to a kind of gentler fed next year. that's clearly the message that is coming out of equities.

even as an acknowledgment, there is strength in the u.s. economy. i was a bit of a baseball fan. if you look at the amount of money being spent on free agents in baseball, there's plenty of cash in the u.s. economy. that is an anecdotal option. but there are a lot of other data points, much more broad ones that show that there's plenty of strength out there. so, markets have -- are betting the fed has done enough with its rate hikes to moderate the strength, sufficient, that inflation will come down to manageable levels. that's the rosy view of things. the less rosy view is that markets are being too complacent about how to -- how determine the fed is to bring down inflation. if it comes in at 7.1% tonight, it still has a seven in front of

it. we had officials say that is uncomfortably high and they're going to need to use say -- a they restricted for a long time until they are sure they have it sustainably back down towards the target, which is like to percent. so, that's a long way down ago. the bond market is confident they will get there, when you break even, at 2.2%, which i find amazing considering how high we are. there's a lot to play for. at the same time, markets seem pretty sure that the worst is behind us. shery: are there any other central banks that could spook our gets this week -- spook markets this week? >> if the fed doesn't spook markets it is hard to see otherwise. if the ecb wants to signal -- to stay aggressive for longer, that could have some impact.

they are seen as having more of a dovish tendency. if they were to sound scared about inflation and determined to go on hiking at 50 basis points for some time to come, that might cause someone settlement. but, the fed is the main game. then, the boe and the ecb and some of the other -- switzerland, mexico -- those are what you might call side dishes. shery: garfield reynolds with an outlook of the markets as we headed to a busy week of data and central-bank decisions. japan and the netherlands have agreed to join the u.s. in tiny controls over the export of advanced chipmaking machinery to china. let's bring in our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle. how much of a blow is this to china's chips ambitions?

stephen: it would be a significant below to china. i'm sure they are gearing up for this inevitable outcome, with the u.s. pushing this. also talking to other countries like the netherlands and japan. why do we concentrate on the u.s., netherlands and japan? those three countries have companies that make the bulk of the advanced equipment that makes the advanced semiconductors that china needs to go up the value chain. so, if you take asml out of the picture, the dutch chip equipment maker, and take tokyo electron, out of the picture for china that is the largest advanced chip equipment maker in japan. that immediately deals a blow to china. the analyst says this, he doesn't mince words, he says there's nowhere china -- way china can build an industry on their own. no chance.

again, sources say the japanese and dutch are likely to announce in the coming weeks that they will adopt at least some of the measures the u.s. rolled out in october. this will be significant because if the governments come on board, that means much to the detriment of a tokyo electron which has a lot of business in china, as well as asml, which has a lot of business in china. that means the geopolitical and national security issues perhaps are outweighing the commercial interests of those two companies. we know applied materials in the u.s. ala, and an research i -- lamb research must comply with these new directives coming from washington. right now, this would affect 14 nanometer technology and above which is already three generations behind the top level. according to analysts, semiconductor manufacturing

international, that 14 nanometer would be the second highest technology level for chipmaking that they currently own. it would deal a blow to the domestic industries in china. haidi: we know that the u.s. and chinese officials held meetings ahead of the secretary of state antony blinken's visit to china, this is not the ideal move. what is coming out of those talks? stephen: this is on the heels of the meeting in bali between joe biden and xi jinping where they agreed that u.s. top diplomat antony blinken would go to china in the first part of 2023 in january. it would be the highest level in the biden administration to visit china. again, we are at not junior level talks but outside of beijing, over the last couple of

days, we have what the chinese call in-depth and constructive talks. the u.s. said the talks were candid between the assisted -- assistive secretary state and the national security council for china and taiwan. a again -- again they are trying to set the stage and find some common ground in contentious issues that are very difficult to find common ground, probably at the top of the list will be taiwan. there are reverberations from nancy pelosi's visit a few month ago. but, now that the chip -- what you want to call the chip issue? it's the dispute over chips, has risen over the top -- to the top of the list because china has filed a complaint with the wto saying this is going to be exacerbating global supply chains. the fact that the u.s. claims that national security grounds for the moves is dubious at best. a lot of contentious issues.

the two sides are saying the talks were constructive and candid, that's a good sign ahead of antony blinken's visit in january. haidi: our chief north asia correspondent with the latest on u.s. -- on the u.s. and china. let's get over to su keenan with the first word headlines. su: chinese -- china's abbasid are to the u.s. says the country will continue to relax its covid measures and welcome more international travelers in the near future. the ambassador was answering a question about whether beijing felt pressured to respond to recent protests against covid controls. he said policy was aimed at protecting lives and had always been dynamic and nonrigid. ftx founder and former feo sam bankman-fried says he is currently not scheduled to attend the banking committee hearing on wednesday about ftx's collapse. but the former crypto mogul is

open and willing to speak with the chair of the senate committee if his attendance -- attendance is important. he will testify remotely to a separate panel on tuesday along current ftx ceo, who is handling the bankruptcy. the ukrainian president former zelenskyy has suggested -- volodymyr zelenskyy has suggested russia draw troops near christmas, in a good-faith gesture that it is ready to abandon aggression. a removal of troops would mean a secure halt to military action. he also reiterated his call for modern tanks and long-range missiles and economic supports this winter. to new zealand. where home sales and prices tumbled in november. sales fell 36% from a year earlier. they were up almost 8% from october. the real estate institute says the median house price was 12.4% lower at 517,000 u.s. dollars,

it blames the rising interest rates and concerns about the economy for creating uncertainty in the markets. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, calls for the use of nuclear power roll out as industry giants from india to japan seek to tame energy costs. the uranian explorer joins us later this hour. charles schwab shares their market strategy and caution that china's reopening may be a risk for inflation. jeffrey kleintop is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the effects of the rate hikes and the cumulation of tightening and training of liquidity from the bond market will make 2023, in my opinion, a recessionary year. haidi: the ceo on the possibility of a 2023 recession. the top catalyst of the markets this week, our next guest says there could be a fed downshift, china's reopening is providing

an upside risk to inflation. let's bring in jeffrey kleintop, the global asset management of charles schwab. the fed this week, we're comfortable markets wise, in terms of expectations. does it feel like we are not looking at what happens next year and the second half of next year given market expectations that the fed will have to put three interest rate cuts? >> that is my view. the view has telegraphed what they will be doing on wednesday. as we look to early next year, they have been clear that there close to an end it to the rate hikes. it's been an incredible fourth quarter for the equity markets. i would call it a santa pause rally in anticipation of the step down. the risk is that something outside of their control, maybe they are not even talking about it. i cannot remember journalists asking jerome powell about the implication of china reopening

and what that may mean for inflation of commodity of goods. 1.4 billion consumers come back to the market after they've been shut down and locked up for so long, that has an upside risk to cpi globally that could force a central banks to not be able to pause rate hikes when they would like to next year. that could be a bad news for stocks. -- bad news for stocks. haidi: one of the reopening pieces we have done, really crunching the numbers and looking at upside, in particular when it comes to commodities and energy prices. if we get a full reopening out of china by the second quarter or middle of next week. regardless of how that reopening plays out, is it fair to say that the fight against inflation is going to continue to be patchy? there's going to be structural elements to the narrative that do not make sense if you're just looking for a straight story of the heavy lifting being done by central banks and therefore

inflation will come down, how do you trade around that uncertainty? >> great point. we have different parts of the global economy and within the economies, we are only in and out of recessions at different times. we are in a manufacturing recession in the u.s. but the service sector is doing strong. getting a reservation at a restaurant or an airline ticket. and so that makes it difficult to try to discern where the bottom we are beginning to come out of. volatility is going to remain high. each one of the last six months has seen stocks on a global basis up or down 5%. three were on the upside and three on the downside. that will continue in the month ahead. investors should be focusing on what has worked over the last six months. what is worked in 2022. that is high dividend paying stocks. they have outperformed on the downside, and in the fourth quarter. that is true in asia, u.s.,

canada, the highest dividend payers outperforming. even across the tech sector, not a place you would normally look to for dividends but there outperforming. the other is i would say low price to free cash flow ratios, value stocks are doing well this year. they did so on the downside and on the rebound. as the volatility continues next year, implementing those two factors across your portfolio should help insulate you from what could be a system downsides. shery: what clear you -- where could you find those stocks domestically or internationally? >> the u.s. is known for high growth tech stocks. that is not where you will find most of them. the stocks that are having high dividend yields are found in europe and asia than they are in the u.s.. that's one of the reasons why this year, which marked the first year international stocks outperformed the u.s. stock market in a decade, might be the start of a trend. we could see it happen next year

-- see happen next year, aided by the fact that may be the dollars headed to a downtrend. shery: our earning estimates to high? >> i think they are. if we look at the global recession, it's already underway, indicators like the pmi or global leading index from the -- they are reporting to lower earnings numbers. but, negative numbers that i don't think analysts have yet priced in, may be -5% on a year-over-year basis. currently analysts are looking more optimistic. shery: jeffrey kleintop, good to have you with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. goldman sachs is planning to cut at least 400 positions from its alaska making retail banking

operations -- banking making retail operations, weeding out underperforming staff. the ceo has recently signaled his reviewing other business lines to manage headcount and limit costs. credit suisse has lost two senior executives in china and italy, as it embarks on restructuring. the greater china ceo caution stories this week, according to an internal memo confirmed by the company. the bank is working to shore up its finances and restore profitability after a series of losses and scandals. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: we're getting the

consumer confidence index. a gain of 3% from the previous month. month on month 3% means we are seeing a rebound from the contraction of almost 7% in november. the west bank consumer confidence index coming in at 80.3, lifted from 78 in the previous reading. we have seen retail sales bucking. the trend, in terms of potentially, the interest rate hikes we have seen from the rba having slightly less of a negative impact across the broader australian consumer in the middle of a critical retail season. expectations are for the broader economy to be up, to avoid recession or the rba to -- something akin to a soft landing into next year. if we see the return of the chinese tourists and consumer as well to the economy. shery: we're watching some

congressional hearings this week. sam bankman-fried is set to appear at a u.s. house after the collapse of ftx. he's going to be one of two start witnesses. -- a start witnesses. anabelle: this is going to be an action-packed panel. the first part will feature john j rate, the -- in charge of cleaning up the mess as a ceo of ftx. sam bankman-fried will appear in the second panel. in terms of the structure we will kick off at 10:00 a.m. in washington on tuesday. the first panel should last sometime around 1:00 p.m., the second will start 90 minutes later. the timing is fluid because you need to keep in mind that there are no hard stops in the hearing. we don't know how long how short the questions will be going. haidi: we have a sense of what the ceo will say?

anabelle: we have prepared comments, released by the house financial services committee. it echoes what we have heard from the ceo in the past. he has been critical of sam bankman-fried and the operations at ftx. this is a seven-page statement. this is a quote we can see. he's saying that this is the product of power that was concentrated in the hands of a very small groups of people, that didn't have much experience, know-how, sophisticated trading practices. what we have heard from sam bankman-fried, he has given some light on what he plans to discuss, focused on the u.s. division, the pathways that could help return value to some customers,a nd also share more of what he thinks led to the collapse and of his own failings. shery: he will do it at the house hearing, but not at the senate hearing? anabelle: right. he was asked to attend both of these hearings. the house on tuesday, the senate

on wednesday. sam bankman-fried has said he is willing to discuss with senate officials where he should appear. but for now, he will not be attending on wednesday. we've got a statement out on this from the senate banking committee, led by sherrod brown and the top ranked republican, senator pat toomey. they are saying this is how congressional oversight works. if your call to attend one of these you need to do so. so, they are planning, even though they have -- even though the council has been unwilling to accept the service of the subpoena, they are urging him to be there on wednesday. haidi: let's get over to su keenan with the first word headlines. su: we start with china which has filed a dispute with the wto against u.s. export control measures, on chinese microchips. beijing says the restriction

threatens the stability of the global supply chain. japan and the netherlands have agreed in principle to join the u.s. in tightening chipmaking here, exports to china. the two countries are going to announce measures in the coming weeks. peru's new president has given anti-protester demands, announcing she will send congress a proposal for early elections. that did not satisfy protesters pushing for elections to replace all members of congress and not just the previous member. they blocked access to an international airport in southern peru and occupy the runway. brazil's electoral court has certified lula de silva's election when closing the wind -- the challenges from the conservative president bolsonaro. the backers have been protesting the results of the election, sometimes blocking highways across the country. while demanding military

intervention to stop lula from taking office. to the u.s., scientists in california, claiming a breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology. for the first time, they have produced more energy then consumed in a fusion reaction. it happen at the energy department lawrence livermore national laboratory near san francisco. the results are considered an achievement, fusion technology is still seen as being many years away. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. haidi: hong kong is reporting that china and hong kong will begin quarantine free travel early january. it's two years after borders between the two were effectively closed. let's bring in our global business managing editor. this feels like the baby steps

to what we hope to see a full reopening of chinese borders. >> yeah. i think the border regime is one area in which they have not moved quite quickly. everything else, what it comes to the easing of covid zero regime has been quicker than many china watchers anticipated. that might be wise realistically when you think about it. very focused on the internal situation, while keeping the quarantine system effectively intact. this report suggests they will be willing, at least with the border with hong kong, to start to ease, ahead of the lunar new year holiday. shery: emma, we're seeing the spread of infections across china, easing restrictions. what are we hearing from hospitals and the broader health care system in the mainland? >> well, it appears covid is fretting very widely --

appearing that covid is spreading widely. anecdotally, faster than it has spread anywhere. there's speculation as to why that is. the vaccination program was administered some time ago in china. there's a lot of density in beijing. it could be spreading effectively. what we're seeing is pressure on hospitals. people are -- there's a lot of communication from the government trying to deter people from lining up at hospitals and clinics to stay home and treat themselves. that's not being effective. we're hearing doctors that are overwhelmed in beijing, where it is flaring significantly, being called and even if they have covid symptoms. so, not looking very good in beijing.

potentially, a real illustration for how this wave could play out in china, as they move where -- rapidly to reopening. haidi: we heard from the chinese ambassador to the u.s. addressing this idea that we will see the resumption of travel, not just between hong kong and china. >> i think they are definitely turning the page. they are moving toward rejoining the world, excepting covid a reality. before we get to that normality, before we get to the point where they are in a situation like the rest of the world is, they have to go through a brutal and large covid wave on an under vaccinated population, particularly the elderly. it will be a bumpy ride until we get to the point where tourists are traveling again, where they are providing the stimulus to the global economy again. haidi: do we know if there is a vaccine target? in australia, 90%, that was

always the goal for reopening. do we know what that schedule looks like for china? >> they haven't said a specific target. they have been reluctant to give mandates, force the older people, which are under vaccinated in china compared to the rest of the world. so, the overall vaccination rate is ok. but, boosters have not been taken up as widely as they had been in other places. you have people who may be had the second shot a year ago. now, getting covid and getting a quickly. -- it quickly. it's not an ideal vaccination situation. shery: bloomberg's, manager, emma o'brien of the latest on china's covid cases. breaking news, we're hearing from coindesk, sam bankman-fried has been arrested in the bahamas. he was scheduled to appear in

the u.s. congress virtually. they investigating the collapse of ftx and customer funds. the former ceo was known to be staying in the bahamas. we are hearing from coindesk that he has been arrested. this, coming at a time when he has been investigated in several jurisdictions. we had heard that the royal bahamas police force arrested, sam bankman-fried, according to a press statement. we will get you more details as we get them. we've heard plenty from the former ftx ceo. he spent the past two weeks participating in media interviews. we were expected to hear more from him at house hearing. we're hearing he has been arrested in the bahamas. we will play more. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: --haidi: the head of commodity and derivatives research reacting to the recent scientific breakthrough on nuclear fusion, scientists

created more energy than it consumed. bloomberg's, ned zero expects over $1.720 investments needed in 2050. it more investment is needed for the electrification of energy demand particularly for road vehicles. they expect more than $91 trillion in investments needed for ev's between now and 2050. a key area is in lithium ion batteries. that is facing a roadbed, as they snap their decade-long press. as we are joined by the head of energy. what has been the biggest driver when it comes to lithium ion battery prices this year? is this the first time in history we saw the price rise? >> yeah. this is a unique time in history.

it's been the first time since we have been tracking these prices which is all the way back to 2010. as you saw from the chart, we have seen a 7% increase in lithium-ion battery prices. that's including all segments, since last year. first time since 2010. the causes of this are multiple folds. we have seen an increase in raw material prices, especially in lithium, cobalt and nickel. it's 78 times higher -- a seven to eight times higher for lithium. that is massive. we've seen increases in prices. 4% increases in prices for nicole, 25% for cobalt -- nickel , 25% for cobalt. it's related to the fact that we have seen generalized inflation

as well as supply-chain constraints and geopolitical tensions with russia impacting or introducing volatility in the commodities market. nickel, but also impacting global supply chains. shery: are you seeing prices that differ by geography or end-use? >> we do see that. when, we're doing our pricing trends and tracking, and serving the market we are asking what to prices look like across different segments? to give you an example, we see higher volumes and lower prices for batteries in passenger, battery electric vehicles. that is where the majority of the batteries are manufactured today are going to. we see lower prices in china. we see commercial vehicles in china, they use cheaper batteries, cheaper materials, they have larger batteries, they are able to have some economies of scale related to that.

every other segment, batteries that go into the grid as well as commercial ev is, plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles have higher prices because they are lower volumes. then, what you see from a pricing perspective is something like the pack, what integrates these battery cells into the actual application therein. they are higher for these lower volume segments. that's a function of having experienced -- not experienced some of the optimization you can when you have your economies of scale. haidi: how does this impact the ev market? in terms of the stationary energy storage market? >> so, there's an immediate

effect around pricing. the battery is a big portion of an electric car in terms of cost. it's the major portion of the storage system for stationary storage. the immediate effect is we see this translating to higher costs, related to what and ev purchase -- an ev purchase, when they are purchasing the car, the stationary storage space we see project developers struggling with additional costs. an immediate impact there. the one thing i will comment on is despite the fact that we have seen this cost inflation, we still see record level ev sales. as well as record level installation of stationary storage systems. we are expecting the markets a double relative to what was installed and sold in terms of battery volumes compared to

2021. generally, down the line, our expectation is battery prices will decline. part of the question is one that will happen. those are the answers we try to provide the research. we expect battery prices to fall back down, starting in 2024, one prices for raw materials ease. then, trending towards $100 per kilowatt hour, the long-term trend. at that point, is delayed by two years, as a function of these price inflations we have seen. shery: bnef head there. the push to lowering energy sources, over the debate of nuclear energy. last week it, india's top power producer announced plans to build a nuclear fleet to aid the nations shift away from coal. this is an ongoing debate in

china as well. -- japan as well. it's increasing its nuclear capacity in the next five years before tapering down the generation source. our next guest is from deep yellow, which explores uranian deposits and operates. joining is now the managing director john borshoff. we have seen the change in sentiment when it comes to nuclear power, even in a country like japan, after the 2011 fukushima disaster, what are you seeing in the ground when it comes to your business and the demand? >> it is a 75 year history of nuclear. there have been three events that have stirred nuclear. one was the oil shock in the 1970's, which was a top-down instigated phenomenon.

most governments declared that nuclear was the way to go. the, china -- then china another top-down, when it revived nuclear in the early 2000's. now, there's a more amazing phenomenon where there is a top-down consensus by nearly all governments of developing and developed countries, saying we need nuclear. this is what changes policy. it's a phenomenal event. i think it is long-term positive implications for nuclear. shery: it is a politically sensitive issue. will different technologies related to nuclear help, like small-scale modular reactors? >> their part of the solution. the whole thing is, that nuclear as a whole has a range of equipment that can supply the bi g traditional nuclear and it can

to -- deploy smr's. it's not replace of of the other. what it also is, in the developed countries which are sensitive to the larger units, which china, middle east, and india are not. some of the eastern countries and european countries too. it's all part of the added growth and maturity of the industry, and how it has options, which system to deploy. haidi: how do you get past the political challenges? >> well, the political challenges are gone. you are back, 5, 10 years ago, you have 12 countries, on the zero omission side, and now they

are saying -- emission side and now they are saying nuclear is the way. the u.s., never mind china. korea, that's had for years under the previous regime are back on. japan, this is a reality. this is the issue, the political system is making it aware that if they don't fix this energy transition, they are out of jobs. they are out of government. it's much more than the isolated view of what's acceptable. climate change is a politically unacceptable. haidi: great to have you with us. john borshoff there. more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: we have more on the developing story. sam bankman-fried has been arrested in the bahamas, according to the attorney general there. he was expected to be testifying at a congressional hearing in the u.s.. but we are hearing he has been arrested and the u.s. is likely to request his extradition, according to the countries attorney general. haidi: we could see this moving quickly. the statement from the attorney general of the bahamas really

specifying that at a time when they get the formal request for next tradition from the u.s., they intend a process it promptly pursuant to the law and its treaty obligations with the u.s. this is just notching up the latest developments we see in the story. ftx has said the bahamas have been trying to help sam bankman-fried access key systems as well. the u.s. lawyers have claimed the bahamas have asked him to meet new crypto coins. the filing of dual bankruptcy, between the ftx and bahamas regulators have been interesting. there has been a level of collaboration with sam bankman-fried to get access to some of the key systems and documents. we are hearing the latest, he has been arrested in the bahamas.

shery: this is daybreak asia and investors are awaiting the cpi numbers from the u.s. on tuesday. the crypto world is watching more fireworks, a sealed indictment in new york, not to mention that he was arrested in the bahamas as well. haidi: confirmation coming through from the bahamas, the attorney general also suggesting we could see a pretty quick move to extradition saying they would be processing that as soon as the formal request comes through pivot all this as we were anticipating we would hear from sam bankman-fried in the testimony in the hearings to the house later on this week. so a lot for investors to be contending with, not to mention simply -- semiconductors being watched today as well, and essentially if the story is to be true that japan and that netherlands joining the u.s. in

curbing chip manufacturing equipment to beijing. annabelle: that's one of the big sectors we're are focusing on, this story that japan and the netherlands could be agreeing in principle to join the u.s. in tightening controls over chip exports to mainland china. in terms of the set up today we're very much focused on the u.s. inflation do tuesday and the slew of rate decisions do this week from the fed, the boe and the ecb. we had seen u.s. stocks rising in the session and we're seeing that reflected in this nikkei trading, the yen holding fairly steady. that's changed to korea, the open of stocks here, keep an eye on what is happening with the nasdaq, or the kospi as we see the nasdaq looking pretty flat. a fairly strong session in the one prior, the yen continuing to look a little bit stronger against the greenback though we had seen the dollar strengthening. it is still holding around that key 1300 psychological level.

turning to australia with the asx 200 one hour into the trading session, being led higher by financial stocks this morning. i had of the k-fed decision on wednesday. we are monitoring what else is happening in the oil space, traders sweeping into buy oil at the lowest price this year. markets also digesting the fact that a guest said he is turning constructive on chinese equities. good to have you with us. they're still so much uncertainty when it comes to the exit by china from covid zero, so are there any laces in china that could really whether any headwinds from a stop-start sort of reopening? >> you have to be selective, and

even though it is well expected they will step by step go toward zero covid policy over the next few months, consumers are still weak, and even if we see the state reopening, consumer sentiment is still a little bit poor. there will be hesitations on a few things. it is not going to be an easy all-around rally. maybe some of the health care, chinese traditional medicine to start with. when we enter into the market we are focusing on those consumer staples and the little bit of tech that has been oversold previously as a first step.

shery: in the broader context of risk sentiment out there we are here more news that a former ceo has been arrested, charged in new york and a sealed indictment. you have turned tactically positive on risk assets since october. are there any bigger challenges out there other than central-bank decisions and broader risk sentiment, given all the chaos in the crypto world, that may cause you concern going into 2023? james: indeed, i think these incidents were not widely anticipated and it has developed so quickly. with the important numbers and fed decisions coming up and also approaching year end, people will be a little right of position. we are not going to chase the market at this moment.

we will look at the u.s. equity market which has seen a technical rally over the last month and i don't really see a lot of upside in the near term. but on the other hand, i don't see the crypto area would send a wide ripple across the different asset classes, given that it's not the first time we've seen those swings. that is why we are switching a little bit back to asia, china is a diversification play. haidi: you talk about geopolitics being one of the key risks facing markets. just getting the latest developments with japan and the netherlands said to be joining u.s. in chipmaking equipment curbs against beijing and all of that would be tantamount to a near total blockade of the ability of beijing to access this key equipment. take a look at how semi-stocks

and as you been lagging, do expect this underperformance to continue? what sort of contagion do you see if the continued pressure is something we expect for this part of the market? james: semiconductor area is facing a triple whammy, geopolitics, the supply situation, and deterioration given an impending slowdown in most of the developed world. our team is pretty much still underway -- underweight that segment overall. prices might continue to be bottoming, for the next two quarters before they see the trough. so we have been avoiding that sector for now. china with this political juggle

all around the world may be unlikely to dump billions of dollars to develop within the country their own semi-technologies. but it's not likely we will see that until five or 10 years from now. haidi: we've talked about some of the consumer beneficiaries of the china reopening. more broadly, how do you feel about the resilience of the consumer in this part of the world going into what could be quite a challenging year ahead with these recession risks? james: in contrast to the u.s. where people get physical paychecks, in our part of the world, we didn't. that's why i'm a little bit skeptical whether we see a lot of reinvestment spending once

cities reopen. so over the next few months we are not going to chase the markets, we will see if we go into holding pattern, hopefully on rates, and the markets are not as oversold as they were two or three months ago. so i think we will see for now, more broadly in the chinese market and the asian market and korea. haidi: always great to chat with you, james. as we've been talking about, sam bankman-fried has been arrested in the bahamas. annabelle joins us with the latest. this has been such a fast-moving story and we are now waiting to hear in more news about a potential extradition annabelle:

. that's right, that's what we're waiting on. send bankman-fried has been arrested in the bahamas and we got that confirmation from the bahamas attorney general. he put out a statement saying he been arrested, following notification from the u.s. and had filed criminal charges against him. the u.s. is also likely to request his extradition. as a result of the notification, the material probably within it, that's provided within it, in the statement from the attorney general we also had a quote from the bahamas prime minister and he said the bahamas and the u.s. have a shared interest in holding accountable all individuals associated who could've betrayed the public trust and also broken the law. haidi: so where are we in the u.s. investigation? annabelle: the southern district

of new york has put out a tweet on this and essentially what we are hearing is that the arrest was made at the request of the u.s. government and it was based on a sealed indictment that was filed by the southern district new york prosecutors. we know this team has a reputation for speed, heading investigations into very complex financial crimes. scope of that investigation is something we've been watching closely at bloomberg and we know from our sources here at bloomberg that the new management team at ftx met with those prosecutors, they are the group of officials that are leading the doj investigation into the collapse of ftx. we do not know exactly what they are looking at so far. also whether sam bank read engaged in market manipulation, something else that is being reported by the new york times. we do expect the prosecutors to unseal the indictment in the morning u.s. time and then we could have more details on what

is included in it. haidi: where does this leave us when it comes to the house hearing? we already heard prepared remarks from sam bankman-fried along the lines of what he's been saying in media interviews of the past few weeks, which is admitting to managerial missteps but not admitting to any wrongdoing or fraud. annabelle: essentially this was on twitter where he sort of gave the scope of what he planned to cover in these hearings. he was scheduled to attend the house one on tuesday though he had not said he would be attending the one in the senate on wednesday. it was along the lines of what we had her before, he was interested in detailing more of the details of the ftx collapse what essentially he was so focused on exonerating himself from any sort of culpability in it because he was also really focused on trying to let people know the man that he could've been, even know he of course had made some mistakes in the past.

that was going to be the key headline for that. we also had the prepared remarks from the acting ceo, the man in charge now at ftx, charged with cleaning up the mess from this. he had sort of stressed those same sort of talking points we've heard in the past from him, essentially that the whole collapse of ftx is something that happen as a result of concentrating so much power and money into the hands of such a small group of people that really lacked any sort of sophisticated market knowledge or information. haidi: annabelle there in hong kong with the latest on ftx and the arrest of sam bankman-fried in the bahamas. let's get over to su keenan with the first word headlines. su: president zelenskyy has suggested that russia start withdrawing troops around christmas in a good faith

effort. he said a removal of troops -- he reiterated his call for modern tanks, long-range missiles and economic support this winter. to peru now, the new president has given into protesters demands, announcing she will send congress a proposal for all the elections. however that did not satisfy protesters who were pushing for elections to replace all members of congress. demonstrators blocked access to an international airport in southern peru and occupied its runway. brazil's electoral court has certified the election when, closing the window for possible challenges. bolsonaro's backers have been protesting the results of the election i'm sometimes liking highways across the country, demanding military intervention

to stop lula from taking office. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, the latest research into consumer spending habits as we emerge from the pandemic. don't miss that conversation later in the hour. up next, china and the netherlands agree to join the u.s. in curbing high-tech exports to china. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: bloomberg has learned that japan and the netherlands have agreed to join the u.s. and tightening controls over the export of advanced chipmaking machinery to china permitted its bring in our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle in hong kong. how big a blow with this be to china's ambitions in chip technology? stephen: this is a significant development because these three countries, the u.s., the netherlands and japan make up the bulk of the makers of this advanced equipment that makes advanced semiconductors. we are talking about the dutch maker asml, and in japan we have the leader there, tokyo electron.

and in the united states, applied materials as well as kla. if this is the three nation alliance, it essentially would equate to a blockade of the top equipment as well as top expertise for this kind of equipment to be blocked from being sold to china, so that would deal a blow. don't take my word for it, a sanford bernstein analyst says, and he does not mince words here, he says there is way china can build a leading edge industry on their own, no chance. essentially this three hut -- three country alliance would represent a near-total blockade china's ability to buy the necessary equipment to make leading edge chips. sources say the japanese and dutch plan to impose a ban on the sale of machinery capable of fabricating 14 nanometer or more advanced chips. 14 nanometer is at least three

generations behind the latest available advances but is already the second best technology that semiconducting -- semiconducting manufacturing own. on monday, china did file a complaint to the wto over the u.s. export controls, saying the moves threaten the stability of global supply chains and that the u.s. claims of national security threats are dubious. so that is where we stand right now. it's interesting to me that perhaps these governments, these reports right now are coming from anonymous sources telling bloomberg news. if they are confirmed within the next couple of weeks, it will be interesting that the governments of japan and the netherlands would come on board with united states, perhaps putting those national security concerns ahead of their country's interests. haidi: u.s. and chinese officials held meetings ahead of antony lincoln's visit to china

early next week. this is some interesting mood music going into that. what did we hear from those talks? stephen: i think it is more than mood music, this is rising to the top the list of china's concerns. obviously china is the big issue that will not be resolved with a number of meetings. just on the outskirts of beijing, these meetings paving the way fort secretary of state and tingling to head to china as was agreed to by xi jinping and joe biden when they met for the g20 last month. the highest level biden administration official since joe biden became president, and essentially the foreign minister you see here met with the south korean counterpart yesterday, telling him these recent u.s. moves are damaging the interests of countries including china and south korea.

so we will have to see as this plays out, this would be a huge sticking point obviously as china gets cut off from the three largest chip equipment maker's in the country, japan, the netherlands, and the united states. haidi: stephen engle there with the latest. covid is rapidly spreading through chinese households and offices after the countries pandemic rules were unexpectedly unwound, sparking confusion on the ground as ill-prepared hospitals are struggling to deal with the surge in cases. let's bring in our senior executive editor, for the first time hearing from family and friends in shanghai beijing, either getting it themselves or knowing people within their circles that are getting covid. john: that is right, covid is

spreading quickly across the population here in beijing and other cities across china. beasley having dismantled the regime from covid zero, the testing, the lockdowns, letting people go about their business without restrictions has helped fuel that spread. it has then resulted in lots of people seeking medical attention at local hospitals. we've seen a lot of strain on the health care system, doctors are being called back from vacation and told that even if they do get covid they should still come into work if their symptoms are mild. state media trying to convince people that if they do get covid the symptoms -- they do not need to go the hospital, they should self medicate. shery: we keep hearing about potentially more easing of restrictions, this time across the border into the mainland and hong kong. john: that's a last bit of covid zero that remains in place is

the quarantine requirement for overseas travelers. obviously hong kong, getting into the mainland has been substantially limited since covid started back in 2020. we are getting a report this morning saying that as soon as january, quarantine free travel could be restarted, could be open between the mainland and hong kong and that would be substantial for hong kong, which depends on tourism coming from the mainland, depends on bankers who live in hong kong being able to travel. goldman sachs predicting they could see a 7.6% bump to gdp if that travel resumes. shery: john liu there with the latest on covid zero across china. get all the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. you can customize your settings

so you only get the news on the industries and the assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: cryptocurrencies given up earlier gains, we have an -- we had seen bitcoin above the $17,000 level today. they will unseal an indictment, he was arrested in the bahamas at the request of the u.s.. haidi: that's get a quick check of the other business flash headlines were following this hour. sources telling bloomberg goldman sachs is playing to cut lee's 400 positions from its retail banking operations. goes beyond the banks annual exercise of weeding out

underperforming staff. the ceo has signaled his review other business lines to manage headcounts and manage cost. credit suisse has lost two senior executives adding to a string of departures as it embarks on a comp reams of restructuring. the ceo is leading that -- leaving this week, the swiss bank is working to shore up its finances and restore profitability after a series of losses and scandals. microsoft has offered its rival sony the right to sell the blockbuster call of duty as part of -- part of its gaming subscription service. sony has not accepted the proposal but has been a staunch opponent of microsoft's bid for activation. the austrian health care giant has appointed a new ceo. can see will formally take over

on march 6. he will remain with the firm as a strategic advisor until next september. plenty more to come here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network.

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haidi: we're just getting the

business conditions and business confidence gauge for november. business conditions reading -- this is confidence also moving from zero to a contraction of minus four. we are seeing both those readings continuing to drop below the long-run average, the previous reading was the lowest since december 2021. those pressures when it comes to what is happening internationally as well as causing the price pressures from domestically as well as the rba rate hikes. we saw that reading, to a zero index point in october. we did see that big fall when it comes to transport and utilities and across the board, mining, manufacturing, finance, business, property as well as the wholesale industries as well. in line continue to see that softening and leading indicators

as well. we will continue to monitor this given that economist by larger still expecting a soft landing, being the consensus outlook for australia's economy going into the next year. shery: and of course we continue to monitor the developing story around sam bankman-fried, now arrested in the bahamas. a reporter joins us live from the bahamas, so this coming at the request of the u.s.. what do we know? >> what we know so far is that it comes at the request of the u.s., were still trying to better understand clarity around -- how things escalated over the past 24 hours. the news today that the government had been intensifying their probe into the company, around the fence of november 11,

this as well as high ups around the ftx relationship with investors at ftx and alameda research, and this came just before the arrest today. haidi: how quickly could we see the extradition request and how quickly without be processed, given that was also mentioned in the ag statement? >> we don't have clarity on how quickly that would happen. i'm hearing from senior officials that we should get more clarity tomorrow. he is at a local police station at the moment and as early as 10:00 a.m. there will be an arraignment. details on that tomorrow if not tonight after the attorney

general statement. shery: what are we expecting of the u.s. house congressional hearing, one of their two star witnesses has been arrested. >> it may be too soon to tell. i'm not sure how the lawmakers work, there may now be a bit of a scramble but that is to be seen i imagine, assuming lawmakers will start to digest it. haidi: we've broken the news that sam bankman-fried has been arrested there and we are waiting potentially and of eight when it comes to an extradition request. let's bring in someone else who is probably processing all this as well, always great to have

you here on bloomberg. we appreciate you joining us. give us your reaction to these latest development, sam bankman-fried's arrest and what you would expect to happen now and the implications for the broader industry. >> the events of ftx and spf have been unfolding over the last month, and this is not two surprising, after some of the for luminary evidence has come out, people have been thinking that he has committed fraud on a massive scale in terms of what led to the ultimate collapse of ftx. primarily having to do with his firm in alameda research commingling user assets. so it's not too much of a surprise, in fact the industry was worried if he did not get arrested ultimately.

there is the perspective that he has been successfully lobbying the government, the politicians, and he's been having good media treatment over the last few weeks. so there has been a lot of hate and anger of why aren't they arresting him sooner. so in some sense, his arrest this morning in the bahamas is actually a sigh of relief or some of the crypto people. in terms of the rest of the industry, there will be some shakeout now. haidi: i'd love to get your views on the implications because it sounds like you are saying the necessary recourse, or at least following that legal process is going to be a positive factor when it comes to restoring credibility across the board of the crypto space. bobby: first of all, restoring credibility is going to take a long time, so this is not any

sort of short-term event here. is going to be good for the industry because we need to flush out the bad actors who really need regulation and to show that rule of law is important and that people can't just do willy-nilly. so the crypto landscape has been a free-for-all for many years, especially across the border international landscape where there is jurisdictional arbitrage. companies would base their headquarters in these sort of third tier countries that are not first-tier financial centers of the world, and the reason is to start regulation. that's why ftx was based in the bahamas. people don't think of the bahamas as a preeminent financial global center. haidi: you talk about bad actors and the need to flush out these bad actors.

we know that sam bankman-fried has not admitted to knowing wrongdoing or fraud. in fact, he says he admits to a series of bad managerial decisions in that sense. how do you get to a point for the industry where the bad decisions that were not intended potentially to have this effect can be regulated? bobby: you need policy, you need regulation, you need committees like the sec covering exchanges and equities. i've been thinking that there has been a tussle between these two regulatory agencies and it mirrors itself to other countries around the world as well. there's really no agency that singly looks at digital cryptocurrencies. maybe the sec will step up. in any case, without strong rules, there's a lot of flight

to countries with lesser burdens , requirement for regulation, and that's why you see a lot of exchanges operate primarily catering to users in the top countries, but yet they are alternately based in the secondary countries that few people have been to or heard of. ftx is just one example. there are all these other exchanges that need to step up in terms of how they manage things. haidi: you mentioned potential actions by sam bankman-fried that could point to fraud. when you hear all this unfold around him, that potentially could lead to that outcome. bobby: as many people know, i have run exchange, one of the earliest exchanges in the industry, the first in china. as an exchange operator, i know firsthand the most sacred thing

is you do not cut -- touch customer deposits. customer deposits can come in different forms. it can come in fiat money, in this case u.s. dollars or euros, and also cryptocurrency, just bitcoin ethereum. what is important is that an exchange doesn't touch the customer funds and keeps it in its native come original form. it needs to hold onto the same amount of bitcoin so customers can withdraw later. you cannot substitute it. you have the risk of trading and the risk of price movement. if you are taking u.s. dollars and substitute it for gold, what if gold prices go down? then you will have -- you won't have enough u.s. dollars in gold to pay back your customers. if you have bitcoin, you can substitute it for ftt, but what if the price goes down, then you

don't have enough underlying assets to pay back your customers. when the liabilities and the asset classes don't match up, you have a real problem and a recipe for disaster. i think that is what happened at ftx. shery: is that where the guard? should be prioritized? we keep hearing from you and others about regulations and how that will improve the industry, but how -- what do you prioritize? bobby: exchanges particularly need to be regulated. it has to be a global effort, not just the u.s. by itself. you will continue to do regulatory arbitrage and choose jurisdictions where they have minor regulation. i think the first step is to clean up the mess for ftx and its prosecution, arresting sbf is the first step in the right direction. people need to be patient, it

takes a long time to flush out the right rules and laws and regulation for cryptocurrency industry. so this is many years in the making. shery: bobby, thank you so much for joining us on this developing story. we do have more breaking news you right now, spacex is said to have valued the company at $140 billion, it was valued earlier this year at 125 billion dollars. space x is now set to offer insider shares for 70 for -- $77 apiece. bloomberg had reported earlier that spacex was in talks to raise a funding round that would value the company at more than $150 billion. we are getting more information that the tender offers are set to be valuing the company at 140 billion dollars, which would be a jump from the earlier valuation of $125 billion.

coming up next, we will hear from mastercard's chief economist about the growth expectations for the u.s. and europe as well as their latest research into consumer spending habits post-pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you're watching daybreak

asia. we start with former ftx ceo sam bankman-fried. he has been arrested in the bahamas after the u.s. file criminal charges against him. the u.s. attorney for the second district of new york said they were -- the arrest was made at the request of the u.s. government. or than 100 ftx related entities filed for bankruptcy last month bankman-fried is facing a range of possible misconduct. china's ambassador to the u.s. says his country will continue to relax its covid measures and offer more interactive travel in the future. answering a question about whether beijing felt pressure to respond to recent protest against coronavirus controls, he said policy was aimed at protecting lives and had always been dynamic and not rigid. china has filed a dispute with the wto get u.s. export controlled measures on chinese

microchips. beijing said the restrictions threaten the stability of the global supply chain. merck has learned that japan and the netherlands have agreed in principle to join the u.s. and tightening chipmaking gear exports to china. the countries are likely to announce measures in the coming weeks. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. haidi: our next guest says the global economy is moving at multi speeds with some companies and individuals more exposed to headwinds from high inflation and interest rates and others, creating a divergence in real economic growth. david, great to see you again. i guess what we are looking at going into 2020 three is the idea that the outlook is very nuanced, that potentially it will impact different sectors in very different ways and also

that potentially we have structural issues that mean it's not a one-way street when it comes to bringing down inflation, for example. >> that's absolutely right. there's a completely different story depending on which sector or part of the war were talking about and it comes to the economic outlook in 2023. for example, while there is more weakness point on in europe, the higher cost of living pressures there, and in the u.s. where there will be moderate growth at best, if any. the key question is about what happens in asia, where you have reopening going on, all those restrictions being lifted as we speak and that will continuously be happening in the first half of 2023, meaning there is even more support because of the later timing for actually seeing the restrictions being lifted from covid in northeast asia. that is good for tourism around the rest of the region as well. and let's not forget that we

have pent-up savings because of the years of being restricted. the keyway we've been thinking about this is like bungee jumping for the global economy. 2020 was a short jump, 2021 was the initial opening, and since then, this year and in 2023, we think we will be seeing the loss of orientation about whether were seeing the ground or the sky, as most people in a bungee jump have seen, that is exactly the scenario we think will happen next year. it will be quite disorienting feeling but overall there should still be growth and some inflation coming lower than it is today. haidi: all of this illustrating why i have never wanted to bungee jump. when it comes to the wildcard for china, do expect that broadly that is the economy that will continue to play that countercyclical growth if much of the rest of the developed

world is in recession? what is the impact on inflation? some see a huge problem for energy prices if we see roaring back to demand from china. david: there should be that different cycle that will be helpful in a year where the u.s. and europe are weaker. meanwhile in asia, particularly the china northeast asia, we will see a stronger story but the export story will be softer, and depending on how rapidly the reopening occurs, that could have that big impact on energy mitt -- energy demand as you mention. while inflation will be lower there will be tail risk in certain areas including in china. the way we've been looking at it from an overall perspective is that growth will be in outperformance story for the region, is just a question of how much. that comes down to depending on what degree we will see the reopening in china happening

rapidly or if it is spread throughout the year with various key restrictions being lifted at a slower pace than some big bang. as we saw from hong kong when the quarantine restrictions were lifted, we saw a surge in flight bookings. we doubt we will see sudden overnight reopening across the board in the case of mainland china. that feels a lot less likely, in our view. shery: we saw the prioritizing of experiences coming out of the pandemic, with the reopening, people wanted to do more things. let's talk about post-pandemic consumer habits, especially when we saw the search for experiences. or we going to continue to see that perhaps from the mainland? david: from our analysis, from looking at the consumer all around the world has really been that everything they are doing, all the patterns fit in line with the view that they want to do everything they could not do during the pandemic and keep doing it.

so that's experiences, travel, and also in person retail as well as buying luxury goods, we've seen that strength persistent all around the world. it does seem to come from the lingering worry in the back of people's minds that the covid restrictions could come back, no matter how low the probability has become, that the possibility is there, and therefore act now, by those things now and go and have those experiences while you can. and it is still happening while the cost of living challenges have been going on. when we've looked into the data of going into essentials versus discretionary spend, even with the higher cost of essentials, consumers have been going more frequently to the grocery store spending less each time, finding a way of still having that available money to spend on those experiences. that should still be the story in 2023.

shery: good to have you with us. we have plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks it gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! [golf ball bounces off rover] unbelievable. ugh. [ding]

shery: more profit volatility could be awaiting asia's all and gas producers as they navigate an energy market fraught with hazards and unknowns.

first of all, let's start with oil prices. how does that look for 2023? >> it will be an interesting year for all investors. we do see a number of different forces interacting against each other. it will create some uncertainty and that could swing the oil price widely in the next 12 months. i think the oil price range could very anything from $60 to $100 oil price in the next 12 months and it is increasingly likely we will see a lower start in the first half and we will then see a were second-half. it doesn't surprise me if it gets back up to the $90-$100 range. haidi: so weaker in the first

half, building up to higher prices in the second half. how does china shree opening play into this? it's kind of seen as wildcard for potentially driving up oil prices. >> that is one of the key questions the market is asking. i think right now the question is not -- it's about how quickly and how far the reopening will go. i think in the first half, the major issue will be more on the interest rate path, how that will impact the demand side of the equation. shery: what does it mean for the energy sector? to higher oil prices equal more profits? >> i think for most of the oil companies, they are sitting on very strong balance sheets. they have the capacity to invest, but if we look at interest rates, first of all i

think a higher interest rate means higher borrowing costs and would -- on the other hand, for china investors, most of them have been psychologically not comfortable. in terms of consumption pattern, we may see a change. instead of doing more travel they started to cut down, i think that would definitely impact the demand side. haidi: thanks for that 2023 outlook. 's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster.

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