jon: welcome to bloomberg markets. kriti: we are seeing red on the screen and admittedly on low volume but down nonetheless with the s&p 500 down by 0.7% of the nasdaq has more pain, almost down 1% on the day. take a look at the 10 year yield , yield higher by about 10 basis points of the theme today seems to be cash out, risk off, stick to the sidelines on the stock

market. the bond and currency market, look at euro-dollar. $1.06, good for the europeans for a long stretch of a stronger dollar but nymex crude, $75 per arrow, up about 1.8% but if we are talking about recession on the horizon, does oil drop lower, it's a good thing for consumers but not so much for investors. jon: we will find out where goes from here but some energy stocks within the s&p 500 have been getting a bit of a loosed. the worst performing subgroup for the s&p 500 is communications services. a number of media stocks are down including disney. a lot of analysis of the weekend performance of the latest

weekend movie avatar. madrigal pharma had the 200% surge on the results tied to a liver drug. we will continue to watch tesla which is up at this hour as we navigate the headlines on twitter and we will have more on that story a little bit later this half-hour. kriti: we certainly will in one of the big questions comes back to the core story of when we see a turnaround in the stock market. we spoke to mike wilson earlier today and he's not feeling optimistic. take a listen to what he had to say. >> we are looking for an earnings recession that could be as big of a surprise to the market than it was in 2008. what we are not looking for is a balance sheet recession fall off like we saw. it's distinguish with doesn't mean there is still not a lot of price risk. kriti: abigail doolittle joins

us. what to the technicals tell us? maybe technicals will drive the conversation? we had this conversation a couple of months ago and we would have a different conversation. what makes it so interesting is the key determinant is the same, resistance. the s&p 500 has been smacked down by its 200 day moving average but technical analysis is art and science. there is something that suggest maybe we are not going back down. the data above its 200 day moving average and well of its 50 month moving average. a couple of other indexes are that way so when you have the diversions between equity

indexes, you can't make an assumption it's all going down. next year might surprise a few people potentially. jon: we are in that stretch of the year where people say holidays are approaching with lighter volume but when you look at some of the volatility trends or you look at a metric like the vix, what are you seeing there? abigail: the vix has started to break out of its range with would have suggested the rally we had out of the october lows would continue but instead, it's been moving sideways. i think the key chart at this point could be the dollar. it looks like it will break down in the dollar index looks like it could reverse all the recent movement. it's not on a panic, that could be good for risk assets. maybe it's an unpopular view that the fed will get its soft landing. one criteria to think about is if you have a major crisis and

the system has not crashed, we are doing ok, it's like getting a car out of a rut, back-and-forth. 2023 may be more pleasant than some people think. a couple of weeks ago, i had a different view. jon: lots of debates will be had in the weeks ahead, thanks very much. let's keep the market conversation going with jack manley joining us for jp morgan asset management. in terms of the bullish versus bears debate right now, where would you say you find yourself? >> the question has everything to do with the time horizon. when i think about the equity market, there is good news and bad news and the good news is that the multiple problem we were talking about at the start of the year is gone, stocks are not particularly expensive at the moment. the bad news is that the earnings shoe has not dropped just yet and we know it will

drop. it would not surprise me over the next six months or so if we see the s&p 500 take a leg lower to 5, 10 or maybe 15%. given the valuation ballads that exists today, if you have a time horizon greater than 6-12 months, you are locking in some solid bait had tailwind by buying right now. you can ignore the noise over the short term was everything to do with the time horizon. kriti: it also feels like there is a little bit of complacency, the hesitation to enter back into the market. why is that when you have such a big selloff in the valuations are working in everyone's favor now? >> there is a natural fear of catching a falling knife. when i look at today's market, there's a lot of difference between now and what happened in 2020. there are striking similarities,

markets are off 34% and a lot of people are looking at that and saying it can only get worse from here. they don't want to buy in now because they don't want to lose money over the short term and i can appreciate that. if you're looking at the bigger picture, maybe things could move lower from where we are now but if you are a longer-term investor and playing it more strategically, you feel comfortable putting money to work right now, knowing the recession next year if we get one probably won't be particularly bad, knowing we are at the end of the hiking cycle and inflation is cooling off, this suggest this is a good time to get into the markets if you are a long-term investor. jon: let's throw another wildcard into the mix. you were talking about earnings uncertainty but what about the housing uncertainty? what will you be watching there? >> we have some data points coming out this weekend will be interesting to see if the market

continues down but the housing situation, there is a lot going on. not only have we not been building enough houses over the last months, there has been an official supply shortage because if you're current homeowner, you don't have to move, why would you ever put your house on the market now? values are double where they were from the beginning of the year. now is not a good time to be a seller. the chronic supply shortage we been dealing with and are continuing to deal with, i think it's -- it shows you how far home prices can fall and it will feed into rent. people are going to be forced to rent and that keeps the rental market firmer than we would have seen otherwise and that is feeding through to cpi data which is keeping that number afloat. kriti: in the united states, cpi

data and the housing market, we have seen the united states is faring better than the rest of the world even though there is some painful inflation stats out there. does that create an environment of more capital flows entering the united states simply because europe is worse off relative to the united states and china is still a big question as well as japan? does that create the fact that there is no alternative to the united states? >> it's a classic example of the u.s. being the has -- the best house on a bad block. can't argue that the growth outlook is particularly good. i can't say the fed is doing a bang up job of managing policy but when you compare it everywhere else, it doesn't seem so bad. with infrared -- with interest rate differential sting wide and there is -- and is more encouraging here than anywhere else in the developed world, that will be a positive for capital flows into the u.s. and is one of the reasons why i have

a hard time believing we will see material depreciation in the dollar next year. i think that will be a headwind for a lot of these large cap multi-nationals that have exposure to non-us markets. kriti: if they see the deterioration in the dollar, maybe getting into the s&p 500 becomes cheaper. jack manley, bringing us holiday cheer with a tie and red sox. coming up on the show, the results are in 253 chaotic days at the helm but twitter users say elon musk should step down as ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪.

kriti: this is bloomberg markets. twitter users have voted for elon musk to step down as the company ceo based on the online poll posted sunday. 58% of users said they favor and exit. will there be fallout? let's try to answer that question for us. if this happens and he steps down, who could potentially replace him? ed: we take him at face value and he followed up in another tweet on the result on the pole and it's hard to distinguish between candidates and satire. there is the fix it team, the trio of silicon valley who helped him when he first bought twitter and they were kind of

having an active role through the engineering talent and were attending meetings with elon musk and traveled to new york to talk with advertisers. it's possible and they were asking if they should take on the role. we don't know if he's joking. we put in a request for comment from elon musk and the others and they have not replied as to whether they are being serious or not area we know that elon musk has said he wants a technologist, someone who understand software and understand service and not necessarily your legacy operational chief executive. jon: what do we know about the state of the business? at least on the ceo side, the twitter comments from elon musk himself that no one wants the job for could keep twitter alive , there is no successor and it's been in the fast lane to bankruptcy since may, how are we

supposed to take that in terms of the state of the business itself right now? >> we need to remember that a big reason that twitter is in such a financial hole is because of the vast amounts of money that elon musk borrowed to pay the 44 billion dollars for the site for. that debt is now on the twitter balance sheet. beyond that, it's a tough time for business. he has played off more than half of the debt she has laid off more than half of the staff and it will be difficult for twitter to come out of its financial hole given the very volatile way the company has been run a lot of advertisers that have fled the platform. elon musk has changed the policies rather haphazardly and we saw other people get banned over the weekend so it's in a tenuous position and it's always a difficult company to find

somebody to run. the last time twitter did a massive search for a new ceo, they picked jack dorsey who is the cofounder of the company and he said he has no interest in coming back. it will be difficult to find somebody who's willing to take on the job especially considering the fact that the twitter job that elon musk has discovered involves public criticism, a lot of regulatory scrutiny and just a very tough job because of how public it is an and how important people rely on the platform to spread information. kriti: i want to tell our international audience that sarah wrote a book on instagram called no filter. that brings me to my next question -- the idea of alternatives and opportunity cost, as we see the chaos unfold

on twitter and the idea of suspending accounts for journalists, are they creating a tailwind for different types of social media to leave twitter and paid more attention to a platform like instagram? >> absolutely, there is always opportunity in chaos whether it's for a startup or legacy business. i think there is no platform that has the same kind of real-time nature as twitter does where you are getting updated at the moment on the world cup. we saw a lot of that very alive on twitter as opposed to places like instagram and tiktok which are more after-the-fact. they sometimes share a reaction or an experience. twitter is more real-time but i think there is room for others to come in and build here. we have seen many exits to

mastodon and other ideas that have sprung up. so far, i don't see the next twitter in terms of popularity. it hasn't really come out of the workforce yet but it's still early and especially right now when we've seen so many startups , big workers get laid off, with my severance packages, it's difficult to imagine a world where there are not so many new startups that will be invented in the next year because people have time to think. jon: i know there is another company named meta but it seems very meta when you have these people like snoop dogg raising their hands on twitter in real time to talk about possibly running twitter. ed: look at the fine line between the information we actually have and the ridicule

and satire. investors vote with their feet and there was a strong reaction to tesla shares to the upside in the prayer -- in the open market. there is concern about what elon musk will do. will he focus on tesla or pullback from twitter? we don't know of musk will go through with this other than the tweet he made so you have to decide if you take his tweets at face value and see what he does next. >> the act of using a poll to get public opinion is something he's done before. he did it for reinstating the journalist he banned and reinstating donald trump fish. he has a history of following up but polls are easily gamed and we should not see this as a popular vote of twitter users. it could be a manipulated result.

based on his past behavior, we think this is something he is likely to follow through on but who knows if that will be immediate and what could happen next? it's a shifting situation. jon: no doubt, thank you so much. we will keep following this one closely. coming up, we will discuss the new diversity plan for cop 15 to protect water. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ - if you're thinking about going back to school this is for you. ♪ ♪ - i ended up spending less money my entire time at snhu than i did in just one year at my other university. - my time at snhu has given me more confidence. now i can go for that promotion. - if you're ready to go back to school, you can do it. southern new hampshire university has changed my life and it can change yours too.

- [narrator] visit snhu.edu.

jon: this is bloomberg markets. it's time for today's for what it's worth. $30 billion the amount of money nations have committed to pay by 2030 to stave off the threat of mass extinction of plant and

animal species globally. cop 15 adopted the program which aims to protect at least 3% of the earth's land and water by 2030. danielle, maybe you can walk us through this process and how we got to this point? >> it was an eventful two weeks, a lot of up and downs, i was in montreal last week and when i left and came back to toronto, i wasn't feeling optimistic. there was a moment when the developed countries left one of the working groups based around funding saying they didn't feel like it deal was moving forward. they said things were looking grim but they pulled it out of a dive in the 11th hour this morning. they managed to get a deal and lots of people are saying it's not perfect in some parts of it have been watered down.

over all, it's a pretty impressive framework and people are saying this will be a significant agreement and will move the needle potentially for climate change and biodiversity. kriti: what were the disagreements and some of the negotiations? >> funding was a big one. you would expect developing countries feel they are dealing with huge problems in the world with biodiversity and climate which is linked to it and a lot of them said these are problems they didn't cause so they don't want to be on the hook for the huge amounts of money to fix the problem so they were concerned there would be actual numerical targets for funding. you mentioned the $30 billion by 2030 and that is specifically money going from developed countries to developing countries through a new fund which will be set up within the global environment facility. that is within of broader and much bigger in mount which is

$200 billion of funding toward biodiversity and there's a bigger number around that which is $700 billion which is the gap they say in funding exists between what needs to be done and what there actually is. that missing $500 billion is going to come from the elimination of harmful subsidies and that could be significant for a number of businesses. they say by 2030, 500 dollars worth of harmful subsidies that go to fisheries and agriculture will be taken out and replaced with subsidies that are helpful to biodiversity. kriti: all over a crucial piece of work ahead in the climate fight. let's get a quick check on the markets with some red on the screen and selling is accelerating. the s&p 500 is down zero .1% in

the 10 year yield is 357. stick with us, more markets coverage ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business:

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>> there is a suspicion that china is hiding the true scale of fatalities from covid. china has reported only two deaths. that defies the experience of other more vaccinated areas. some people said they shall wait longer than the two months recommended between doses and others thought only high-risk people should get another shot. those ideas will come up as regulators meet. members of the european union