>> we are not focusing on a deep and long recession, let us not be too optimistic. >> this year has been historically difficult. >> i think central banks need to be careful. >> you look at what the bond market is telling you, it tells you that the fed will win the battle against inflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, tom -- jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: we welcome all of you on a thursday, far more than that, getting to the holiday season and the oddity of a weekend

christmas day it is a different season. it is a whole different feeling across america. lisa: it is supposed to be over, the longest year in the history of the world is supposed to be over. you've gotten a number of big announcements that have not faced markets as much as i expected. that is the year end mission -- mystery. is this just that people are asleep underway or something bigger? tom: i am not a believer in the year end, but we will look at some bitcoin talk off of mr. bankman-fried coming back from the bahamas and all of that that was witnessed. it is tough to stay focused, and to me not the guilt of it, not to sound like im, but there is a part of american -- america celebrating a bland economy and another part that is not in the

script and that is in the economic data. lisa: and cutting back. the sentiment data came out much better than expected. how much of this is being driven by the fact that gas prices are the lowest going back to july of last year and how much of this is momentum? the bigger story to me, the biggest story of the moment is china's massive u-turn which has gone undiscussed. suddenly they are open for force despite all of the hospitalizations. did you see the announcement? they are not going to force werner's to quarantine. tom: what is so important and this is bloomberg reporting and bloomberg reports that there are quarantine adjustments in china, and are processed -- and we thank our pacific rim team for that. it seems like a bit of gobbledygook.

this is a daily unfold. lisa: gobbledygook in the sense that it is hard to understand what is going on except the economy is in the forefront and the mandate has suddenly been lifted. it has all of a sudden been out of the blue there is no mode -- no more covid zero. the implications of that were vast and we are not necessarily seeing them in market action. tom: we have an important guest and we have really interesting and quality guest through 10:00. lisa will be in for john and where is pharaoh? we believe he is leaving on a jet plane for the mother country. lisa: he is celebrating his christmas tree because it is beautiful. tom: they could leave it up while he was gone across the atlantic because i do not think it needs to be watered. lisa: you are going to throw shade at his tree, really? there is something to be said for not having shedding pine needles. tom: we should get stephen the

team out they can fill me watering the tree at 3:00 p.m.. if they want comedy action. this is where pharaoh comes down and sits down on my head while i go and water the tree. i want to get a data check. i am going to look at the one statistic that i care about, also the one that chairman powell cares about which is any form of financial conditions index, we use the bloomberg financial conditions index it is a stunning negative four point -- negative .444. that moves in and accommodate of way. lisa: it has been steady with this lift into the year end. most interesting it -- is the stasis in the dollar-yen cross and what other ramifications. we saw a little bit of a rebound after the biggest decline in the dollar versus yen. and we are just hanging in

there. i want to give you a sense that there is not much going on but we have initial jobless claims in the initial reading of the third quarter in the united states. 11:00 a.m. the kansas city fed's manufacturing index and how much does that slow down in terms of demands not picking back up in order to become profitable. and i also say that we are on weather watch and that is what i am watching, the bomb cyclone that people are looking at. it is actually a tactical term, i did a lot of research because i will mean -- i will be among those trying to travel. tom: isn't a bomb cyclone called february in detroit? what is a bomb cyclone? lisa: when the weather changes very quickly and intensely and that is what people are talking about, you are talking about sudden shifts in temperature in 50 to 60 degrees in terms of

delta and snow and wind that rival category one hurricane. tom: we sat on the lawn in august of jackson hole and it is usually about 45 degrees. on that lawn it is -26 in wyoming at some point. in new york city it is very cold and come saturday as well. he will not sway from the cold, he has lived in denmark. he has wonderful knowledge especially of the transatlantic dynamic. this is a question that jonathan would ask, what is the european, u.k., u.s. dynamic next year? how will that play out in the litmus paper of the foreign-exchange system? >> we have had a situation where we had a crisis in europe. the europe -- the euro is under pressure and people doubted that the wood lift risk -- lift interest rates at all and you

have a situation where there the crisis is there, but the tail risk is removed and prices are coming down and the ecp is sending more signals and the bad. -- than the fed. ecb says that they will send basis points while the fed stick that they wants to slow down. things have changed very dramatically. tom: let us go to the book, "the fall of the euro" which change the dialogue, and i do not want to know about the gloom, but what i want to know does christine lagarde have a nominal gdp spirit like chairman powell has in the u.s.? i do not observe it. jen: so i think that christine lagarde's problem is that she is trying to convey a governing council opinion that is actually split. when she stands up and delivers

her remarks she has to find a balance. in one press conference she tilts to the doves and the other one to the hawks. that becomes confusing for the done -- for the general public to understand. but with inflation this high in europe cb does not have -- the ecb does not have much of a choice and they are working entirely on inflation and that is what we will continue to see. lisa: how much does the china reopening story accelerate cb needing to remain -- the ecb to remain tight with their policy? jen: i could see that you are tweeting about china and there is not sufficient focus on how quick the reopening is, and everybody was forecasting during some kind of period that in 2023 there would be some gradual reopening. we had pretty much full

reopening in a couple of weeks, and a timetable this is massively accelerated, meaning that we would get a peak in covid cases imminently. covid is easy to forecast and if there is no government intervention it runs a second -- a certain cycle. and then we will have behavior on the ground change again within the next one or two months. so china will have a big bounce in consumption and activity over the next few months and then that is going to be a big impact on the commodity markets and on the region. and that has consequences for everything. the big drive has been growth and we have big competition from inflation and china is certain important in that regard. lisa: aside from giving a bed -- a big pop for oil prices, what are the other implications. jen: so, i think it certainly

makes a challenge for central banks harder. all the central-bank looking for -- all of the central banks looking for an anchoring of the terminal rate. if they have another inflation coming from high demand from china that will make it much harder to call when we have a turning point. so it makes these central banks to get more stable in rates, they are facing a bigger challenge. tom: so john emails in, thank you for watching, he is in a bus terminal trying to get to cornwall. i look into his note and he says he needs to make money fast, what is the option -- opportunistic pair to speculate in? jen: so i think you have stimulus dynamics in china and the covid reopening and is it going to work in a similar

dynamic, crude oil is something that has consistently reacted when that happens, and the currency market you have certain currencies in asia that benefit from strong growth in china would be the big one. and then the place that many benefits from tourist would be taiwan. those are three directly related to what is going on. tom: thank you so much for helping us this year. you know, what jon is going through it it speaks to so many people east, west, north, and south, we are making it up as we go given the strikes, the weather, and capacity. i am supposed to leaving -- to be leaving in a day or two. lisa: how may people have i talked to who were supposed to go away or who normally would go away who do not want to and are driving and not flying because it isn't -- expensive and

volatile considering the fact that more than 1000 flights were canceled because of this cyclone. tom: he is going out to cornwall which is like palm trees or something. and he goes through exeter and i have no idea, it is six hours to cornwall on a bus. lisa: he is not taking a bus. tom: he told me he said he cannot get a car the train is on strike so he is taking a bus. lisa: it is a new tv show. tom: extraordinary. lisa: john on a bus. tom: dow futures -66. we have all the great stuff. jonathan will join us at 7:00 a.m., a must watch. good morning. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news around the world i have the first word. u.k. household income fell for a fourth quarter leaving britain's

on course for the were slipping student nerds in memory. disposable income per person decline point 5% according to the office of national statistics. gross domestic product also fell. the cost-of-living squeeze has likely already pushed the u.k. into a lengthy recession that might last until the end of next year. a new analysis shows that china is experiencing one million covid inspections and 5000 virus stats every day according to a london-based research forum -- firm that focus on predictive health analytics. bloomberg laurent that china plans to cut quarantine requirements for overseas travelers. the requirement to spend time in a quarantine hotel or isolation facility would be scrapped and arrivals would instead be subject to three days of monitoring. overseas arrivals currently isolate for as many as eight days.

tesla is offering a $7,500 credit and 10,000 miles of re-supercharging to u.s. customers who order a new model three or model y by december 31. the carmaker was previously offering a $3750 credit which certain tesla's were eligible to be counted for. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo. is bloomberg. ♪ from one company committed to building a world that works, to three that will focus on a future that does too.

this is ge healthcare, creating a world where healthcare has no limits. this is ge vernova, helping generate and move the energy that our world needs. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. this is the next generation of ge.

>> the struggle will define and what world our children and grandchildren will live, and then their grandchildren and children. it will define it will be a them -- if it will be a democracy for ukrainians and americans for all. this battle cannot be frozen or postponed. tom: a very interesting day, way out front on this story saying it was a stunned washington to learn that mr. zelenskyy would

visit. what i noted and it was so important to allude to churchill and roosevelt floating off newfoundland where the united states had to simply say to britain we will be there. something like that happened yesterday. lisa: there was a pledge to help ukraine and continue helping ukraine no matter what not only to help in the war against russia but for some of the issues that he put out there for democracy. the question is the bill was delayed last night. the $45 billion in aid as part of the package getting caught up in washington, d.c. end of the year drama. we shall see. tom: part of the drama and tony is our expert on weapons for bloomberg and also alluded to in "the washington post" is who wants watch. annmarie hordern briefs us. they are not going to get abrams

tanks, they are too fancy and complex, but what are they going to get? and does europe have mr. biden's back? annmarie: it is clear that europe has mr. biden's back, but this president is the one at the center of keeping this alliance strong and steadfast. it is the reason why president zelenskyy was in washington to see and not in berlin, paris, or brussels. because washington is the only place to make sure that ukraine will continue to get everything needs. the big thing and take away is that the patriot ms. sill -- missile system. there is tension in the press conference because he says what you ask for and ask -- next and zelenskyy joked another patriot missile. the biggest tech away whether it was a press conference or the speech at the joint session of congress is the fact that it was

thank you so much and we are very gracious but we need more. tom: i spoke of tangible military experience and he was heated, do not prosecute a winter war. with this success does mr. zelenskyy want to the weapons now to attack or defend in january and february? or can he wait for the spring offensive? annmarie: he wants whatever he can get his hands on immediately and that was pretty obvious yesterday. unclear on the timeline that the patriot missile battery will be available to get into ukraine and be operational. ukrainians need to be trained on it, but it is that type of weapon that he wants and the president says it is a defensive weapon and alluded to the fact that what putin is doing "a weaponize asian of the -- weaponization of the winter"

they want to shoot down the drones and that will get worse in the winter because it is a wintertime when you are desperate for heat, and clean water. lisa: even after the warm welcome by washington, d.c. of volodymyr zelenskyy we did not pass the $1.7 trillion omnibus bill that included aid for ukraine. what is the hold up? annmarie: they did not pass it yet. they were supposed about yesterday and what you have is senator mike lee putting an amendment that would be about title 42. what they want is for title 42 to continue, this was a pandemic era provision and restriction that if you were an asylum seeker crossing you can be expelled immediately to mexico. republicans want this to come to a vote. the issue that the democrats have that if some democrats allow this amendment to come in, this would be as -- this would

be toxic in the house and would not pass the progressives they need to get on board to pass the bill. remember, house republicans are lining up against it. this is a hurdle right now. but potentially we will see, they have been negotiating and they are getting closer at around 2:00 a.m. this could extend it into next week meaning more likely that you would get a stopgap funding measure. but they will be working on it today. lisa: there is a broader issue, the question around immigration and on how to open up immigration more in light of labor market shortages that we have been talking about that i fueled some wage gains and some are concerned it could be a wage spiral. is there bipartisan agreement on opening up how many people are allowed in. annmarie: kyrsten sinema is trying to work on this to trying get a bipartisan immigration reform. it does not matter, republicans

or democrats, many have spoken about the need. when it comes down to the details this is something that has been tricky and difficult for a bipartisan way to get past forward. you bring up a point which is that we are facing a very tight labor market and many have been calling for a readjustment in the immigration system because the united states needs workers. tom: how has in -- how will immigration policy -- policy change come january 15? annmarie: it would be more difficult if the democrats got an immigration policy through that needed some republican support because come january this is now a divided congress. you have a democratically controlled senate and a republican house. what also changes is that we had this moment, title 42 is about to lapse and that is what republicans are trying to change. tom: we will continue this

discussion especially with the history made in washington within the next hour as it will. we are looking at the 10-year yeild, re-.64% and are we sleepwalking into next year where we visit attention above 4% and we are modeling out 5%. no one is looking for that? lisa: the oddity and i feel like a broken record. there was analyst after analyst saying that there was one bear case if china reopened and jim -- and japan abandoned their yield curve. both seem poised to happen and both have -- and we have not seen a change in the yields. tom: you were taken by the pageantry in washington. lisa: this is his first visit out of ukraine and this is his plea for aid and more focus on trying to in this -- end this and it is notable to me the

pageantry coming at a time of war for the rest of his people. tom: i was thunderstruck and maybe i missed this. i did not see a lot of the evening news. to me it harkens back to southeast asia and action by democracies over a domino effect and this time the domino effect is a little different but it is from the south and up the black sea and even to finland. but from kyiv to tallinn we are doing this and that was not discussed, the idea of the west and president biden have to get out front on this for short money to protect that line going north. lisa: the trade lines, the question about the alliance and strategic lines. and what we are seeing is not only some of the alliance line shifting, but the trade lines. there is a story about a new

route being created between iran and russia through the mainland in order to avoid some of the sanctions. the world is changing and that was highlighted by some of the discussion. this is going to be an ongoing conflict. tom: there are different roads on that and to let you know our annual visit with ian bremmer, look for that early in january with his eurasia group and i am sure that the dog there will talk -- the doctor will talk about the many roads. we will change by telling you that red and green on the screen, the vix with a nine -- with a print earlier. stay with us. ♪

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tom: good morning. lisa abramowicz and tom keene with jonathan ferro on a silent. -- on assignment. sliding into the holiday weekend. the quarantine eases up on china and we will have details on that. i will call it a turn through the market but accommodative conditions index, something chairman powell does not want to see. the dollar churning and the yen off of that history move of a few days before. 1.3213. maybe it is stasis. this is a joy.

we welcome peter huber, vice chair of research at deutsche bank and team leader for the greatest economic call of the year. rarely do you put together a directional call with a timeline under dr. hooper guidance and deutsche bank did that by mistake months ago and nailed that the recession would happen later than sumer. congratulations to you and matt on the call which seems to be still in place. review why the recession is delayed. peter: the recession is delayed primarily because of the effects of monetary tightening on the economy. we have known for quite some time that monetary tightening operates with variable lags, it was shortened a bit by forward-looking financial markets except the financial

markets are not playing the role that you would expect. the financial conditions have tightened some but not enough. we still see quite a bit of momentum in the consumer sector and the labor market. tom: are we beyond pandemic shock and various and sundry supply shocks? peter: we are living with the aftermath and certainly seeing a shift in recovery and services spending that was depressed for stan chile -- that was depressed substantially by the pandemic and that is still supporting consumer spending significantly. the recovery is a factor working against the fed trying to deal with in the nation. the supply-side has improved enough to reduce inflation pressures on the goods factor. we are seeing goods prices declining.

it is the services side and the catch up that is driving this momentum keeping the expansion going longer than the fed would like to see. lisa: deutsche bank predicts that u.s. equities dropped 25% in the next downturn and in the first half of next year. will this be induced as fed policy as people realize how committed they are? peter: i think that is the primary factor underlying that call. as we go into recession multiples are around 15 and that would imply the s&p 500 getting down to around 3000. we would also expect the recession to be relatively short , may be several quarters and we will see a recovery before you get out of a recession because the stock market should be back by the end of the year, close to current levels, if things work out as our call anticipates.

tom: howdy -- lisa: how do you pushback about people who say we are seeing a deceleration? we are seeing a disinflationary impulse that would give the fed breathing room creating a shift in town? how do you pushback and say that is not what we are focusing on? peter: that view is driven by the recession we are also seeing in the goods sector. that is way above normal and has come off now. this is the recovery of services for two thirds of the economy and that will keep things going. you pushback because the labor market is still very tight as chair powell keep saying. we have a long ways to go to get pressure out of the labor market. the fed has been saying that it

thinks the national rate of unemployment has been moving up and we have been saying for some time it is in the 5.5% range and we will have to get to that level to begin to relieve the pressure in the labor market to bring wage inflation down from levels that are supporting inflation that have at least doubled the fed's target. that is the struggle. the pushback is not too difficult when you look at the labor market and consumer spending on services. lisa: i feel like this has been a story for a couple of months and i am struck by the lack of attention given for two sea changes, the abandonment of yield curve control by the bank of japan but there have been signs it can happen and the reopening of china which seems cap -- which seems to have been done. how has that shifted your view

as these things have happened more suddenly than people expected? peter: it was really interesting to watch the bank of japan move which was a surprise, a surprise that they would take a risk at a time when the labor market in japan is really tight. we think. and wage inflation there is going to be driving price inflation perhaps above levels. something very unusual for japan at this point. but no question that that is a factor down the road. do not expect ycc to be abandoned until the new leadership comes in around april next year. on the opening in china, certainly that is going to be disruptive for a while, no question, the pandemic is going to be a fact there that holds back activity for the near term.

we are expecting growth in china to remains of food -- subdued into the year ahead. and as they hopefully get improvements on vaccines, they will be able to open up more normally. peter: i went back -- tom: i went back and looked that we spoke with david in march of last year in the shock of a putin invasion and he was seated that down the road there would be a great rebuild and the shock of fiscal stimulus. obviously it is not there right now and some would say there are elements of austerity. it is a great unseen out there that can give us optimism is almost spending on a post-world war ii level? peter: when you are talking about packages of $40 billion in support from ukraine from the ukrainian standpoint there is a major rebuild coming although

obviously we have some -- the end of this war is not in sight at this point and it will be destructive for some time to come. looking beyond, yes from a ukrainian standpoint there is a major polish. tom: you mentioned japan earlier and there is still a shock of the other three major central banks. what should be look for in the next meeting and the parlor game that you force lizette a to look at every day. in the broader sense what is the strategy to get to the summer or autumn of next year? peter: i think both the fed and ecb are dealing with, they have some headwinds in dealing with inflation problems and that head -- and that financial conditions are not getting to the point where we see the amount of slowdown and pressure off of labor markets that needs to occur.

the same from the ecb. i think christine lagarde gave hints that the ecb could see another two to three 50 basis point rate hikes pushing the terminal rate in europe above 30%, potentially. our call has been 3% but we see the risk to the upside. likewise for the fed. matched call for some time has been 5.1 on terminal, but with upside, certainly if the conditions are not moving in the direction that we need to see them moving and if the labor market remains firm, the fed could well be pushing into the 5.5% plus range as we get into late spring or summer. tom: thank you for visiting. he has vice chair research for deutsche bank working with david on a world-class team, i should point out. let us drop on oil.

it is one of the biggest shocks of the year. i was -- i would never ever forecast oil it is the toughest thing to call on but -- but people at deutsche bank and other firms, but paul was also there and you know the names and big m's. what a stunning year for oil, 120 to 130 and then down to 80. lisa: especially if people were talking about $120 barrel oil by this time -- by the end of this year. picking backing -- piggybacking on the end of that story, gasoline prices $3.11 on average meaning that it is the lowest going back to the summer of last year going back to the shift and unexpectedness. tom: then why do car rentals cost so much. explain to me. lisa: supply and demand. tom: you come in with a number and that is ok and then you give

them back the keys. lisa: part of this is also just because they did not have the same shipments of cars during the pandemic when nobody was traveling. tom: so we have a shortage of cars? lisa: they stopped buying as many and the resale values of the cars that they did by were very high so they continue to replenish. and now there are a certain number of cars and everybody wants to have experiences. tom: sunday asked me if i got rid of the rambler? it has a change on it and i am ready for the snow. the great carl weinberg will go up to teutonic. lisa: when is the last time you put chains on your tires? tom: folks, you really want to know? we are going there right now. lisa: please. tom: in the parking -- parking lot of the wobbly barn.

i was putting the chains on and i was a little wobbly. lisa: and that was the last time? tom: that was the last time. you know, i think john was playing, i cannot remember. chains. lisa: i am probably going to be using some of those this weekend? yes. in snow land. tom: travel safe. all of you travel safe. i am seeing images out of logan on twitter and it is a hectic airline said diocese and. thank you helene becker for the briefing on airlines. lisa: it is impressive and it will get worse and be more expensive. tom: why is it like this is a good question, new jersey negative eight, dow futures -79. this is bloomberg. lisa m.: keeping you up-to-date with the first word.

hospitals in shanghai are struggling to cope with a number of covid patients with many pharmacies turning away customers. this is months after the city endured a brutal lockdown. covid is making its way virtually unchecked through its population. most of the shanghai schools are closed and troubled -- and public transport usage is plummeting. php made an offer to acquire and australia minerals company. the ideas to consolidate php as one of the largest producer of copper. bhp says the bid will now go to shareholders for approval by early april. pubs and restaurants say that last week's rail strikes cut their sales to have pre-pandemic levels. u.k. hospitality says the revenue was down 46% compared to the same week in 2019. industrial action is sweeping

the u.k. with walkouts by the workers in royal mail, health sector and various parts of the civil service and rail and bus staff. more transport disruption is expected into the new year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lissa matteo, -- lisa matteo, this is bloomberg. ♪

from one company committed to building a world that works, to three that will focus on a future that does too. this is ge healthcare, creating a world where healthcare has no limits. this is ge vernova, helping generate and move the energy that our world needs. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. this is the next generation of ge.

>> there is no intention of topping this cold war. in the united states is ensuring to make sure that the brave ukrainian people can continue to

defend their country against russian aggression as long as it takes. tom: the president of the united states, really history made, thank you annmarie hordern for getting in front of that story. especially that general to give us perspective as well. lisa abramowicz and tom keene, jonathan ferro on sabbatical. he has lost at an airport somewhere. he said the hardest part about getting to the cornwall on the bus and you hit exeter and you are almost there and it is that far. it is almost of france the way it goes down. lisa: merry christmas and we wish him the best. tom: the surveillance helicopter is tied up so he is on a bus. the pride and heritage on bloomberg surveillance is to find experts for you. the consulate of foreign relations barely describes her knowledge of the relationship of

germany with the rest of europe and that is an important brief particularly after hearing from mr. zelenskyy yesterday. liana, this year for you in international relations was not in the textbooks at the london school of economics. there is no theory that can explain this. what will be the new theory for the german people after 2022? >> that is a very good question. first of all germans have to say goodbye to the old theory because the old theory that dominated german politics through the end and after of the cold war was changed through trade, it is possible to change russia and changed china by forging closer economic ties. for the united states, a lesson from the end of the cold war was peace through strength and the formula that reagan use.

perhaps germans should look towards ronald reagan and peace through strength rather than change through trade. tom: there was a moment yesterday in washington almost like churchill and roosevelt floating on a boat in 1941, it is there. what is the equivalent visit that we will see of germany and france? how do the two of them stagger forward in year two of this war? liana: germany and france do have to catch up. it is not without reason that zelenskyy went to the united states first because it is the indispensable nation in the war and this visit demonstrated that the united states is back as the leader of the free world and it also means that other european countries like germany and france have not been able to step up to the historic occasion of a war in europe.

at the moment europe is leaderless and leaning into leadership and it -- and president biden is playing a big role. but it would be good for europe and good for ukraine if both france, germany, but also warsaw would play a prominent role as a united europe and helping ukraine. lisa: yesterday ukrainian journalist asked president biden why aren't you providing more and why have not -- why have you not thrown as much as you can and president biden said because he did not want to anger some of the allies with nato in particular and put them in a difficult spot. does that ring true with you? liana: it rings true but i think it is only one reason because there are escalation concerns in washington when it comes to relations with russia so it is not only leaders in europe that

are concerned. for instance, wide range artillery might hit russian territory and other weapons might lead russia to escalate further. this is a serious concern in washington as is the concern about nuclear escalation which becomes particularly relevant when it comes to the question how much of its territory should wreak -- should ukraine retake. i would say that it is a topic for the alliance, but it is also a concern that is heard in washington and the nuclear escalation is a concern of president biden who does not want to see nuclear escalation on his watch. lisa: we are hearing about mass migrations out of ukraine and a difficult winter ahead. how much has the population shrunk and how much are we looking at a different ukraine coming out of this? liana: so in europe we had 4.7

million registered refugees from ukraine, but many of those have returned to ukraine over the summer, which has relieved the burden for europeans. now as we look towards the winter it is exactly the strategy that moscow pursues to put europe under pressure by making ukraine very much uninhabitable and forcing ukrainians to seek refuge once again in europe. and that is a strategy that europeans tried to counter by air defense but at the same time ukraine needs offensive capabilities to continue counteroffensive. tom: is there new angela merkel, someone with the domestic german politics that can fill the shoes, the emotion and heritage of angela merkel? liana: well actually olaf scholz, chan learn now was compared -- the chancellor now

was compared to angela merkel. angela merkel also got this very special appear -- appeal from the outside world only towards the end of her chancellorship and that was not the case in the beginning. olaf scholz will need 16 years to get to that point. tom: we greatly appreciate that. we will digress with the council of foreign relations and looking at the data with lots to talk about and the accommodative tone of the financial conditions index. lisa, i have to stop and go back to my place where long ago somebody very young without a bowtie on how to deal with sudden infant death syndrome and it was done out of the best university for this in america, the university of washington in seattle. they have gone on 50 years from their ownership of the microbiology of that era to owning covid data.

the work there of the imhe in the last two days and a lot of this is funded by bill and melinda gates and all of that. the washington state funding. there numbers on china are just stunning. folks, there is no measurement and nothing that we can grasp your. all of us watching in the western world of what is to come in china. basically, based on the smartest people in the block, the people at the university of washington. lisa: there are a number of estimates because the real data and the state backed data i will not call that real, that has been projected based on empirical data with hospitals will and some of the crematoria in full operation. china is likely experiencing one million covid infections according to airfinity. the bigger question here is how

long will it rip through a population and fill hospitals and lead to deaths, pain, and emotional turmoil that paying tries to offset. -- that president xi tries to offset? tom:. compare and contrast, ihme made headlines and got a lot of grief from the white house except from dr. fauci and they said 80,000 u.s. covid deaths in 90 or 100 days back in 2020. take a number like 80 or 100,000 and then compare it to the mathematics of one million infected and what that is in china. we are literally into this holiday weekend beginning to gauge the scope and scale of what we see. lisa: and the psychology of it. we have gone from lockdowns, state testing, not being able to go into a public place without an official document saying you

have been cleared. quarantine to nothing to not being able to get tests and stores to having to have state run manufacturing of tylenol to combat the mass infection ripping through the population. how does that affect the psyche? we have not heard from president xi. what is the response going to be? tom: may i state that the place that tested me early and often through covid and literally 12 months ago i think i had covid is now a wedding dress store on madison avenue. lisa: that sounds about right. have you seen the new tests where you have four quadrants where it is covid, rsv,flu. tom: that is a serious issue. there is a heavy inflection of that in western indiana. west lafayette with triple infections. probably a visit to harry's chocolate shop will get it done. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> we are not focusing on a deep and long recession. this year has been historically difficult to state the obvious. >> there is room for the fed to step down. >> the bond market says that the fed is going to win the battle against inflation. tom: good morning everybody, we welcome you on a thursday.

claims are coming up in 1.5 hours. jonathan ferro is on assignment in heathrow. lisa: on assignment to what? relax? tom: you can relax when you are taking a plane to cornwall. we spent a long hour on international relations. we will go stockmarket on you. part of this is the recovery in the markets june against september, now i have a fixed 21.6. things are not all that bad out there. lisa: here's one thing heading into 2023, will resilience in the economy be good for stock markets are back for stock markets? tom: thus the length of your question here? lisa: basically, if you get a resilient economy all of a sudden people are looking for an

earnings downturn and they say great, we buy stocks. but then the fed has to? parade so now you are suddenly looking at a halt to the economy. which is it? tom: the gospel of saint martin adams, economic analysis linked to stock market analysis, they don't move together. they move different ways and some would say the equity market is upfront on that as well. i would suggest that profit is at hand and that is when you use this word quality and if people are looking mostly there. are they making money? are they making money? lisa: it is the haves and the have's not. you have on one hand, the companies like nike, fedex and then micron yesterday after the bell came out with disappointing earnings saying they are cutting thousands of jobs and retrench

for next year because of the glut of semiconductors. it is a bifurcated kind of world. tom: let's bifurcate to the view that you had this morning because we have to get jonathon n golub here. lisa: we have jobless claims, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. then we get the manufacturing index for december. do we see the optimism from yesterday bleed into industry activity? i am looking at the weather today. this is going to affect heating costs, travel plans, more than 1000 flights have been canceled ahead of the holiday weekend. the bond to cycle is coming and i knew you would make fun of me for saying that, it is a technical thing and shift.

tom: they play grand funk railroad like anything. bomb cyclone would started. lisa: bomb cyclone is a fantastic name that's available. it is going to affect people's view on heating when gas prices have gone down but diesel remains high. tom: we bus the chops of jonathan ferro, 19° in new york city. it will be better cold coming in from fargo. lisa: fargo is a whole different degree of cold. you can't use pens because the ink freezes. you can be exposed or you get frostbitten. tom: what's important as you mentioned bomb cyclone and what they did to grand funk railroad, a texas back to 74 and the

equity gloom. jonathon golub from credit suisse joins us. the answer after 74, we went up 38% next year in the year after that we went up another 18%. is there an equity lift off out there somewhere? jonathon: i think it gets to something lisa was saying, what is good news? the backdrop is becoming much more positive with respect to this idea that there is no recession coming in the next two or three quarters. the market is getting their head around that and why stocks are racing head. eventually, this does bias in terms of two things, as inflation is falling, companies are losing pricing power and that's not good for margins. a resilient consumer is a headwind for profit

margins. tom: you mark down earnings. the watermark that they have for us so that we don't steal their research? do you know what this watermark said? if this research gets out they will take away my eggnog. i cannot believe credit suisse did that. i want to know if profit is a place to hide. you were way out front in the bull call of collecting certain sectors and stocks. do prophets save me? jonathon: you were talking about gina's comment that what happens the economy doesn't happen in the stock market. corporate profits, the outlook improved in the stock market had a terrible year because interest rates rose and other factors like that.

i think this year will be different, you have margins -- margins will get squeezed and they will be tougher on profits. tom: how much better? jonathon: i think it will be a modest returning year because i think you are looking at something down 4%, 5% even if you don't have a recession because of a margin squeeze is coming. lisa: companies that have already done the layoffs, i am thinking of tech and banking doing rounds of layoffs. the semiconductor industry, will they be in a better position or they a tea leaf or things to come? jonathon: i know a lot of guys on wall street talk about these layoffs because they are looking at tech and financial. in reality, the job market is swimming in unfilled jobs and demand is high.

what the story is on tech in particular, it's not one profit picture. the tech universe, if you include amazon and google, it has been a horrific environment. they 60 initially logged the market. their estimates are being revised lower and lower and they are missing the lower estimates as a group in their outlook for growth this week. since the iphone came out in 2008 this is the worst year for tech related companies that we have seen. the expectation is the next year we will get this big bounce in tech earnings. we had this pull forward, we are staying at home and buying stuff. that lobe will last longer than we think. tom: are you telling me to sell apple? are you telling people to sell apple along with all the other challenges? jonathon: i think this problem

is not a sentiment problem, it's an earnings problem and it doesn't last for three, four quarters a loss for seven, eight quarters. a lot of these companies we thought were impenetrable, a lot of those companies are getting closer to a total addressable market. whether that is in handsets or advertising. lisa: how did we get to 40/50 by next year? entech is not leading? jonathon: i think energy, this expectation that you will have a weakness in energy profits. i think it is going to be wrong. in the last six months, the earnings estimates for the energy sector get higher and higher even though oil prices are falling. where is the magic there? it's a lack of refining capacity.

if china reopens, then these companies sore. that's an area of strength that is underestimated, tech is to the downturn. tom: credit suisse was imperative on energy in the united states. you guys own the high ground, i don't think a lot of people know this. what subset of energy tell you about the great energy event in the stock market? jonathon: if you look at u.s. energy companies or north american energy you have each of the pieces separately. we have companies that do refining or distribution. if you look at those in europe, they are just big oil companies and you have less of that granularity that you see in the u.s..

you can see those refining businesses are just levitating on lack of refining capacity and nobody is putting an end. if you do have oil lift off and then you get some upside in the commodity sensitive stuff like that emp name, the sector will be a big surprise. the second area that we are talking about is the consumer, think about what is going on, their wages are staying higher in the inflation on the things they are buying is falling and there's an abundance of jobs. consumer confidence since june and july, the data is ripping and people are not appreciating that the consumer is going to spend a lot more money. it will kick us out of a recession and that's another area. tom: as you mentioned it only gets to 40/50. lisa: the cases converging on

the bare sentiment. americans will shop, thus to take away i heard. they have money, they will spend it. tom: jonathon golub i guess we will see you soon. if you're not in paris getting beaten by energy companies there. futures in the negative, fix with a 19 print. please stay with us, this is bloomberg, good morning. ♪ with the first word, i am lisa mateo. china plastic cut quarantine requirements for oversea travelers in january. under the new rules, the requirement to spend time in a quarantine hotel would be

scrapped and arrivals into the country are subject to three days of monitoring. oversea arrivals isolate as long as eight days. following crypto titan defrauded his partner stealing billions of dollars over years for his own benefit. now bateman freed associates, gary wang and cofounders are accused of helping him. they have pleaded guilty to federal charges and are cooperating with prosecutors. the trading commission also announced separate lawsuits. more than three quarters of u.k. businesses save the brexit deal has not helped them to increase sales or expand. brexit has damaged the ability of companies to compete in the eu with businesses banging against a break wall. the research published on the

second anniversary with the agreement between london and brussels. tesla is offering a credit to u.s. customers who offer a new model three by december 31. the carmaker was previously offering a $3750 credit. as part of changes to the inflation reduction act and to federal tax credit for electrical vehicles. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the southern district of new york has filed charges against the former ceo of alameda research and gary wong a cofounder of ftx in connection of their roles in the fraud that contributed to ftx collapse. they both pled guilty to those charges and they are both cooperating with the southern district of new york. tom: the gentleman of the legal system of new york, the phrase in the zeitgeist, the throwing under the bus with two more people brought in.

mr. bankman-fried, is he in the united states? lisa: he's arrived in the united states after agreeing to be extradited. tom: it is a movable feast, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. anna herrera joins us, this is not the u.s. story, it is a truly global story as well. i want to get to binance which is fermenting. ftx yesterday, what did we learn? anna: we learned he was not doing any of this alone. his top lieutenants pled guilty. we learned more about what was going on behind the scenes and it seems other firms got swept away by the collapse of the stablecoin project.

bankman-fried's hedge fund got dragged down and ran out of money to pay investors so they got money from ftx from their customers. there was never any separation. tom: what language would you use, the phrase is under the bus. our legal authorities setting up the secondary officials, i am saying this with quotes around eight, to get bankman-fried or is that too unsophisticated of an analysis? anna: you will get more if the people who work with them talk. the district attorney reminds people that also worked there, if you know something now is the time to talk. it is quite eerie sounding. there were other people that work there is so more

information they can get will be good. we are waiting to see if bankman-fried, what will happen. lisa: how much pushback is there that seem bankman-fried will get a bail deal? will he be able to go out on bail when he comes to the u.s.? my understanding is that was one of the ideas for returning to the united states? anna: it depends pushback where? the crypto crowd expresses their feelings on social media. that would make them very happy, for many this was the latest hit. this was a big shock for everyone. they might not be happy if he gets to go out on bail and the bail is not too high. we will have to see what happens. lisa: i want to ask an unfair question, this is fascinating to me. someone who was raised in a

privileged tone, the son of stanford professors had every opportunity available. why would you perpetuate a fraud like this? what was the purpose? anna: i wish i had the answer to that. you brought up some of the potential conflicts between the firms in september and spoken to sam bankman-fried and they said there was separation between the two firms. i am not a psychologist. i don't know what was going on. tom: i want to get out front for next week. and that is binance. i have been following the binance story unfolding. you have the advantage of being in london where we don't even know where binance is domiciled. there is talk of cayman islands but who knows?

should we be focusing on binance? anna: they are the biggest exchange by far. it's legitimate to start asking questions about binance not because there is something bad but because it is fair to ask questions. clients have started pulling money from exchanges because they are concerned of something happening like happened at ftx. it is perfectly legitimate for the public to look at them from an earning standing. tom: anna, thank you so much. lisa, i think this is a huge deal. we have to be so careful about the innuendo, the speculation, the rumors out there. i am intrigued by the adults out there in the zeitgeist are

writing about binance as much if not more than ftx. lisa: especially because they acquired defunct crypto lender voyager. how much is this supposed to be a show of strength? that they could be a consolidator of market share or is this something else? the accounting firms are pulling away, saying they will step back from the crypto industry? tom: they did as a audit and they just stepped away 5, 6 days ago. the name is not in front of me, the former sec official at duke university who said here are the red flags, let us count them. that's where we are this morning within our reporting.

kailey leinz, matt miller, and the crypto show will get there. i guess they do one next week. lisa: the day after christmas. tom: the story is moving so fast. lisa: can i shift gears? carmax are pushing out, a huge shift. their shares are down 13% in premarket trading after reporting quarterly earnings short of expectation. why is it so expensive to rent cars? this does not give the answer but it speaks to the massive and quick deceleration in prices of used cars and how that is filtering in to one of the biggest used car dealerships out there. tom: back down to 50 and back down to where was 6, 7 years ago. lisa: $.24 a share.

the estimate was $.65 a share. significant underperformance after downgrading. tom: are you front loading your equity report? lisa: i find this interesting. the reason i find this interesting is because we've been talking about the disinflation. it is coming in pockets and used cars is one of the biggest pockets. vehicle sales are an input into consumer sentiment. tom: i am amazed with the byes in the outperforms on the street. lisa: are you being snarky? is the holiday season. tom: i have to get to february in my employment. i have 13 byes, six holds, to sales. people have recently stepped into this thing.

lisa: people thought we got into the holds. used car prices would pick up a new car prices could rollover. this flies in the face of that. it surprises a lot of people. tom: future is -10, now it's -84. yields are turning, everything is turning. the dollar is turning. yen 13211. mark cabana, an important brief, we will do that. mark cabana of bank of america. ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance, jonathan ferro is just minutes outside of cornwall. futures are -10, the vix 20.26. i am looking at the bloomberg index that streams accommodation. we will speak to mark cabana from bank of america about that. the yen is 13210. a stronger yen but not through the handle. getting strength off the shock of the week. oil with the lift. i will rounded up, west texas

$80 a barrel. britt global crude $84. the curve is not part of the story, the real yield is not part of the story. the 10 year yield, 3.65. there are individual stories, demands, redux from seven months ago. lisa: there is a company called carmax. the earnings came out well below what people were expecting. the reason why, you talk about american incomes. affordability issues. it is expensive for families to afford used cars when you finance them out rates at 10%. you see those shares plunged by

1.8 percent, now down 12%. micron coming in below expectations saying they would not make a profit next year because of the glut. those shares are lower by 3%. western digital, those shares are down 1.18%. you see that at amd. how much will that be the story that the tech pain continues. even though people are expecting a rebound? tom: is that it? lisa: i can keep talking. tom: do you have a nike good news story. lisa: if you want to buy air jordans for my son, go for it. tom: i was going to get a pair of the french shoes. jonathan ferro was looking at red sneakers. lisa: he is reprising his

childhood dream gifts. what was your childhood dream for a gift? tom: it was bowties. lisa: little tom keene with an vermis bowtie? tom: right now, this is important as we talked to jonathan golub earlier, there are 19,000 people at the bank of america. only mark cabana is working for bank of america. he has global head of short rate strategies. thrilled he could find time before the holiday. let's go to short rates first, but is the efficacious way to play the fixed income market into next year if i am scared stiff? how do you do it if you are a feared?

mark: we think the market will nudge up the terminal rate at the front end. the market is 25 basis points below what the fed thought for 2020 three. if you are worried about the outlook we think you should lean along the back in. that will be a way to protect yourself against a slowing economy. likely higher unemployment rate and a flattening bias in the near term. tom: your charm, is to speak in english. a lot of people in fixed income you can understand. the number one question i get from people on the street is how will it take a 15, 18% loss in fixed income? you have an encyclopedic knowledge on this. is this a 12 month, 18 month

exercise? how do i get to breakeven on fixed income and how long will it take? mark: we think fixed income is going to have increased value for investors over the course of the next 12, 24 months. you will be seeing your yields that are probably moving lower. you will see yields that have value and portfolios again as they work as a hedge, that will mean that investors should be thinking more constructively about fixed income broadly. simply because he will see that risk offer value returned which a boston 2022 with elevated inflation. as a moderates, that increases the attractiveness of fixed income portfolios.

we suggest being on the long end of the curve. you could still see something on the front end, if the fed keeps hiking, we think in the long and he will be protected because we expect that most increases will be bought by investors who see long and yields as increasingly attractive. we think there will be a lot of interest from fixed income investors around those levels. lisa: if the word of the year wasn't 2022 was pivot or step down. you can argue there are another set of words there. what is the word in 20 23 that people will hold onto? mark: i think the market is looking for pause for the fred -- fed. the word of the year will be recession or maybe not a recession. it is a consensus that we will

see the u.s. economy and global economy slow down over the course of next year. how quickly or slowly will be the focused and markets. the market is looking for a term from the fed. looking for a turn in the economy and that seems like the middle of next year. whether the labor market cooperates, we think that's a question of 2023. lisa: the 60/40 portfolio is hanging in there and bond should do well in the first half but not second-half. corresponding with stocks not doing well in the first half of the second half. what happens to the call if the recession is pushed out. if there is this momentum that is common much stronger than expected? mark: the value of fixed income will be deferred for some time. if we see an economy that does well you will see the front and continue to selloff.

it will keep moving terminal and more elevated in you will see the backend jump a little bit. the curve will become more inverted in that environment. you will have to wait a little while to see their performance in fixed income that we anticipate. the market believes that the fed is going to be effectual, how long does the terminal high have to go? we think it will be successful which is why we have a constructive view on long in duration. tens will be rallying to 3.25 by the end of next year. it may take more time for long and fixed income to perform well but we think you will see that performance over the course of 2023. tom: one more question if i can, buried in your note is the tone of the moment. i'm taken aback by this fixed income strategist. you are becoming closet

economists. you are looking for labor cracking. have we ever done this before? have we ever modeled our fixed income space off the dynamics of the american labor economy? mark: probably implicitly we have in the past. it was different about today in 2023 is that we are all anticipating recession. we all anticipate a slowdown in the market and labor market. to see the front end of the curve perform in fed rate cuts that will be pulled forward and justified you need to see the labor market moderate. that is not happening yet. this is the most expected, anticipated recession ever. you need to see the labor market begin to moderate before you think the fed will pause and go towards rate cuts. tom: mark cabana, thank you so much with bank of america.

brian emailed and is said there are a few more people working at bank of america other than mr. cabana. long time ago, there was a writer who could really write her name was lisa abramowicz. the brethren of lisa abramowicz have a story about jp morgan. this is the kind of small story that comes out of the cold of december 22. lisa, if you are in cds and you get the direction call wrong with leverage, bad things can happen. lisa: what goes up big can go down big. this is about a $70 million los s of credit breakdowns on jp morgan's books that are a lot of people are grumbling about. it just came out and i'm looking through it right now. it seems like the real story here is an ill equipped to a big

market maker jp morgan that can push things around and those of the allegations people are talking about in terms of transparency and ability to accurately reflect what's happening in the free market. tom: this is the day job for a lisa abramowicz, is not a lot of money for mr. diamond, this is the game of price up, the price down, yelled down, cds credit default swaps. bad things can happen on a micro basis. lisa: there's a bigger story about liquidity and an important one in the european credit market which is becoming less liquid in light of the sudden withdrawal of free money. people without the willingness

to buy and trade to the same degree that they have been, who are the people that push the prices around? we start to get questions around that. we heard about this in 2009, 2010 with portfolios of clo's and mortgages and high-yield bonds. tom: i haven't seen lisa abramowicz that fired up. the core religion of debt restructure. thank you for that report. stay with us, this is bloomberg. futures are -12. lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word on lisa teo. u.s. households have come down for the fourth quarter. adjusted for inflation, disposable income per person

decline .5%, gdp also fell. clubs and restaurants in london save last week's rail strikes cut their sales in half pre-pandemic levels. revenue was down 46% compared to the same week in 2019. industrial action is sweeping the nation with walkouts from the royal male, airports, civil service and more transport disruption is expected over christmas and into the new year. japan approved one of the first blood test kits for alzheimer's disease. it measures and abnormal protein that gm's nerves and brain cells. the kit will give doctors an easy and inexpensive way to screen people for the disease

that is currently done through ct scans was painful spinal taps. in spain, el gordo is underway. the incredibly popular lottery will dish out 2.5 billion in prices, much of it in the hundreds of smaller prizes. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

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path of normalization. tom: greg peters on fire yesterday. he is esteemed in the fixed income space. what we learn from him yesterday? lisa: the difficulty of this year and next year. there is value in bonds but it is not wholesale and is not raring to go. it is the sequencing. we keep hearing that, sovereign, investment-grade and high-yield. tom: i did not spend attention yesterday because i was focusing on my christmas card list. it is just one card. i take the pen, i am writing dear mr. bloomberg. thank you, santa. lisa: thank you for revealing that tom.

i was listening and i thought it was interesting. sequence he might be the word of the year for 2023. tom: we slow down with rubeela farooqi who slices and dices american dynamics had high frequency economics. her notes are brilliant and d. there is a headline that stops you dead in your tracks. chairman powell is not sufficiently restricted yet. how far away from yet are we? rubeela: they have made it clear that they are not done, they need to move rates higher and keep them higher. from all indications, we will head up slightly up to 5%. we don't believe in fighting the fed. we think that is where we will end up. we will end up another 75 basis

points after 400 basis points last year. tom: the hallmark of your work in mr. wine brooks -- carl weinberg. we will get out to whatever restrictive is and we will continue. talk to the people now who are scared stiff of this path of higher interest rates. how do we survive it? how do we move on like that? as carl weinberg has moved on from seven other global crises? rubeela: if you look at how the u.s. economy performs and how wrong we were about inflation in the fed and the economy and the resiliency of the consumer. we should be humbled about what we think of what 2023 will

bring. the u.s. economy will avoid a recession. we will go into a below potential growth rate scenario. there is enough momentum, enough support for households that the u.s. economy is going to avoid recession in 2023. we need to be humble. the labor market is tight, the fed will not back off its inflation fight because inflation is way above where it needs to be. this is the scenario. we have seen the economy perform, we have seen a do ok. we expect to slow down. i think there is enough momentum in the labor market, underlying strength in u.s. households that will keep this economy growing over the next year. lisa: where's the humility in the 4.8% rate baked into expectations versus the five point 5% you are talking about

and strategist saying the same thing you are. look at the economy, consumer confidence, sales, everything is going too strong for the fed. rubeela: from the market's perspective, it has to do with the fact, the lax policy. the labor market has not responded. it will happen, we expect a substantial step down in the first half of the year. i think that is what the markets are pricing in. there is the belief that the fed will blink. this fed is not the pre-pandemic fed that was looking at a long. of low inflation. this fed is very resolute. i think there's a disconnect between what the markets are thinking and where we will actually end up. markets are expecting the fed to back off once the economy starts to slow. lisa: can the fed reaches goal

if the market does not cooperate? if we don't see a tightening of financial conditions? rubeela: how does the disconnected resolved? we don't have a great answer to that. if you look at financial conditions, what is already happened with lending standards. what has happened with rates on credit cards. financial conditions have already died down. in the equity market, it is not as weak as it was but i think the fed is looking at a broad array of conditions. i'm not sure how this disconnect will be resolved. we need to be clear, this is not a fed that is going to back off what they intend to do which is to bring inflation back to 2%. tom: on the domestic side of the core gdp function there is exports, good things going on in

the country versus things coming in including petroleum. what is the exports minus imports do? is that something to remain we need to study? rubeela: we need to understand that trade is not as impactful on the u.s. economy as it is on the european economy. what we saw this year was so strong and then we went into a huge push in the third quarter. we think is demand, imports will normalize and exports, that is where the uncertainty lies. if our trading partners are as weak as we expect them to be. we will see the drive from the trade part of the equation. the impact will be a little more

subdued compared to what we have seen. those huge swings that we saw last year. that will dissipate and 2023. it's a difficult call to make especially if china comes back online. tom: rubeela farooqi with high frequency econometrics . tom: i'm getting a lot of heat when i mentioned bitcoin, i apologize for those i have offended. i am so ignorant on this folks. i need to apologize that there is carmax and carvana. two-year good wisdom, i think i can use the word cratered without offending anybody. it's a statement of the used car

business. lisa: carmax those shares are down 54%, carvana is down 98%. you are seeing that with other dealerships as well. carmax is a clean read on the state of the used car market and how much you end up with a situation you see a continuing devaluation of some of these prices. this is the fullest read on how difficult it is getting for people who have to use credit to buy big items, how difficult it is getting. if you talk about 11% rate to buy a new car -- used car. it becomes punitive in that is why you see demand decline. tom: these are high revenue companies. this happens every once in a

while, we get ignorant. that is where i am on this. they dominate this business of i could never afford a new car. this is a digital combination of the four gazillion used car lots. you can afford the financing. lisa: you also have a glut of cars. there had been a lot of fleets from rental companies that they were now selling so the prices went down quite a bit. this is important for overall inflation metrics. the disinflation that we see in cars. tom: how does someone who takes a crosstown bus know so much about this? lisa: this is such an interesting pocket of the story. tom: carmax, forever. stay with us, this is bloomberg. good morning.

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>> the pivot will come next year but not until we have given up some of the gains. >> every sensual bank is doing

quantitative tightening, hiking pretty aggressively. we have never seen this environment before. >> they will stick to the course and therefore, we have a risk of a more serious recession. >> by traditional frameworks, we are just not there. lisa: stumbling to the end of the year with car talking concerns. welcome back, this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan ferro is somewhere on the bus. tom: he is heading towards cornwall. they are going south. lisa: they are not driving themselves. it is getting more expensive to borrow money but cheaper to buy

a used car and that is a terrible thing for companies that have seen a huge inflation on the bubble until now. tom: with your reporting on nike and fedex. we are very used car, new car. we have listeners in manchester. joel says they call him forward to buy his new car back a year ago. i have never heard of that. lisa: it speaks to the bubble and prices. it is something like 10% if you put used in new cars together. part of the cpi for price inflation.

the bubble has burst and you are seeing some sort of disinflation because people can afford it. they can't afford it through financing or the prices after they have client. tom: the bottom line to me is, is inflation dynamics and the rest of what we do every day now a greater a mystery as it was 12 years ago when we were very transitory, i think it is. lisa: it's inconsistent. let me give you the new car story. this speaks to the residents who have very different fortunes. used car prices are still rising because people can buy them and buy them in cash. we saw this with home prices coming out higher than people expected. it is the haves's and has not. what kind of inflation picture do you get? tom: to me it is complex but others go to the aggregate. i listen to david rosenberg who slices and dices like no one in

he says we are in a disinflationary track. lisa: if you take a look at the markets, there is a decline in two year yields despite some of the increase in consumer confidence. i try to pair this with the discussion we hear about how the fed will have to curtail optimism, dynamism. tom: do we agree thus the consensus? lisa: two years are lower .3%. it has been resilience heading into year end after facing negativity. crude is a bit higher for consecutive sessions. a 1.4% increase. $79.37. tom: china opening? lisa: where is the story in this

crude price? do we see the reopening of china in the crude price or is this people just shrugging it off because you are not seeing the real increase in economic volume. tom: west texas intermediary, push against ed morrison, we go back to 100 and bloomberg news reporting a quarantine lift in china, q plus three is the new phrase. there it is and that is how you get that oil number. lisa: the market is seeing rates and what the fed is saying. lee ferridge , why is the market not listening to what the fed is saying? lee: i'm not entirely sure. we have these pockets of weakness. we have these areas where we are

in a disinflation trend and to some degree we are. the assumption is that the fed is being too hawkish. the market is ignoring them. don't forget the meeting last week and quiet this week. in january, the market will have to get closer to what the fed is. we have a terminal of 45 in the fed said five in an eighth. there is a 75 basis point gap between what the market in the fed has and that will close. lisa: the issue i see going into year end, how much is hinging on this rate and how wildly different these estimates are. lee: once we can into the new year, it could close sharply. i think it will be a rough start to 2023 for risk and asset markets because we have to get some sort of move in the market

towards where the fed is. you look at the data but there are pockets of weakness without a debt. we look at a consumer confidence number yesterday, expectations 82.4, the consumer looks forward to the economy more confidently than they have been since january. that is a problem for the fed when they want to curb excess demand. tom: credit suisse agrees with you on this as well. there seems to be a belief that is central bank could curb excess demand. is there proof of that? lee: they can do it. can they do it without causing a recession? the problem in the u.s., because we have a high degree of fixed-rate borrowing, the only real way they can curb excess demand is through higher unemployment. you mentioned the used car

market. new activity in the used car market has plummeted because loans are significantly higher. if you look at the balancing market, new activity has dropped. if you have your house and your car on a fixed rate loan. your monthly payments have not changed. once that doug two-year aggregate demand? is not changed it. when you look at the u.k., race are floating. tom: jonathan ferro, we post his chops on this. this huge distinction of floating-rate paper. does that change the script for bailey in lagarde versus the fixed rate of jerome powell? lee: absolutely it does. the terminal rate is only 20 basis points below the feds terminal pricing.

it makes no sense when you have the consumer and the uk's suffering significantly. the gdp numbers we have this morning, personal consumption was down 1.1%. thus the weakest since q1 2021. but the country was locked down. nobody could spend anyway. the consumer is suffering because their mortgage payments are going up. the real earnings squeeze is happening there as well. but if you have your house and you are not going to move, your mortgage payment has not changed. 90% of u.s. mortgages are fixed for 30 years. that is a problem with the fed when it wants to curb excess demand. a problem not faced by others. lisa: how this factors into what your call is for next year, does this mean more dollar strength? there is this greater resilience to higher rates when it comes to housing and cars than in the

united kingdom or continental europe? lee: that is exactly what it means. when we see divergence in the first of the quarter, the first half of next year. the fed will have to keep going because of this fixed rate environment we are in. when you look at the bank of england, it flows to the wayside. the rba are getting close is to the end. the fed has more work to do. that will be the thing that drives the dollar higher in the first quarter in the first half of next year. you will see the dollar rally and further in bouncing back because of this divergence in policy. tom: lee ferridge thank you so much. we want to focus on the weather.

lisa, we have some important imagery from our trip to jackson hole. john was really freezing and it is 42 degrees or 38 degrees in august. adam posen shows up in a short-sleeved shirt from the peterson institute to talk to a 3% inflation level. it is -26 on that same deck. lisa: to be clear this is a screenshot from that moment. there is this question of the 3% inflation and a question about the weather and why adam posen did not bring a jacket we will get into that at another time. there is still an allowance of 3% inflation by the fed next year. tom: this is the academic debate at the peterson institute off of the research from west virginia

commonwealth. the bottom line is, where disinflation mentally change your behavior? thus at the heart of the discussion. suggesting racing back to 2% or as bill dudley says below 2%. maybe it does not change her behavior. lisa: the problem is, if the fed acknowledges that their target is now 3%, get ready for 4% inflation become the norm. people will not think they have a handle on inflation. tom: good morning georgetown. features at negative nine. good morning. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word on lisa mateo. the kremlin criticize the

outcome of low to mere zielinski's visit to washington. the kremlin spokesman said moscow followed the meeting with president joe biden in speech to the u.s. congress and saw no sign of a willingness to listen to russia's concerns. vladimir putin says russia has no limitations on military spending for the war in ukraine. fallen crypto titan bankman-fried defrauded investors stealing billions of dollars for his own benefit. now bankman-fried associates, the former ceo of alameda research and gary wang the co-founder are accused of helping him. they pleaded guilty to criminal fraud charges and are cooperating with prosecutors, the sec. bloomberg has learned china plans to cut quarantine

requirements for overseas travelers in january. under the rules, the requirement to spend time in a quarantine hotel would be scrapped and arrivals subject to three days of monitoring. overseas arrivals currently isolate for as many as eight days. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: lisa abramowicz a tom keene with you. jonathan ferro's on assignment. coming up, henrietta treyz on when politicians in washington will leave for the mother country. there is still much work to do with chuck schumer, we will get that in a moment. it is not funny, there is brutal cold across this nation. the kind of cold that kills

livestock and poses risks to people. so much of citrus production has moved to brazil, offshore. nevertheless, we are on the searchers's watch in florida. lisa: you and i have been googling the weather of florida orange production. daytona beach has a big orange grove. the weather gets down to 27 degrees tomorrow and 28 on saturday. tallahassee goes down to 18. we are looking at temperatures of 12 degrees in dallas texas. this is unusual weather for areas that rely on warmth and raises questions on infrastructure heating crops -- and crops. tom: to bring a tear up where there is a warmer autumn and is drifting away. can you imagine this cold across

ukraine and the adjacent nations? it's unimaginable. lisa: i hope everyone stays safe. it will be ugly, there will be wind, ice. tom: economics are pretty quiet. i would suggest that the bloomberg financial condition index shows accommodation out there. a smart equity market, the vix 26.23. right now, we continue on washington but digress from where annmarie hordern was yesterday. we look forward to the domestic politics of which henrietta treyz is astute. henrietta, senator schumer with headlines here and they have to get business done. what happens in those rooms on

december 20 2, 23. what is the horsetrading that goes on? henrietta: they are working with the parliamentarian right now and coordinated with mike lee to get an agreement on title 42 which is a controversial immigration component that president trump put into effect during the height of the covid crisis which expires. they are trying to horse trade a vote on that amendment in exchange for passage of a 1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill. every senator and house member one side and they're stocking this year. these fights take until the bitter end. i am hoping the votes are counted before leaving. tom: i am guilty assist from anyone. the imagery that we are seeing down south, that shocked washington, how does the story

change once this agreement is made? what is the new immigration policy of december 27? henrietta: speaking with staff on both sides of the aisle. there are a handful of bills and all the economists are saying we need workers. we are too far food 2024 presidential election cycle to get an immigration bill passed in the next three days or two years. i don't think there will be a material change of the border. i imagine they will find a convenient offramp to get around senator lease amendment. it will not change a whole lot. i am not anticipating anything material to come out of reform at the executive level or

legislation about immigration before the year is out. lisa: after the midterm elections people were talking about a move to the center. there would be a more collaborative feel in a rejection of the hyper partisanship of washington dc over the past decade or two. how does that fly in the face of what is actually happening as we count down to a deadline and are getting gridlock? henrietta: we will get a bipartisan deal on the surface but you will see this bill passed with almost exclusively democratic support in the house and hopefully raise 70 votes in the senate. the senate will be bipartisan but the house will not be. if you wanted tied into the speech from president zelenskyy, there were only 85 republican members of the house there. there are 213 of them. that incredible event coupled with partisanship at its most extreme was well illustrated and

that is what next year will look like. they are trying to tie in homeland security funding, impeachment trials. i am not expecting any legislation will pass until we get to the farm bill which will have material for snap benefits and then the debt ceiling which we will have to deal with around september and there will be a very ugly fight. the reason we get this on nevis is so that kevin mccarthy can wait to deal with the debt ceiling until september. lisa: borrowing costs of rise to the degree that they have, how will that get a growing number of congress members on board to reduce the deficit to pull back on some of the issuance? henrietta: none. there is no way you will see any fiscal austerity come to pass. no spending cuts. there will be a lot of talk about it.

we will probably get out of the wire. when you talk to the staff, they know the path forward and it will not be about rita finding the new number. we already know it will be a suspension which was to spin the debt ceiling, give the treasury a blank check to operate through x state. i am not expecting any austerity from this. tom: you said the presidential race has already started for two years from now. you are a grizzled veteran from this. when did we hear from president biden? when do we hear from president trump and another 10 were these? is that what awaits us in january? henrietta: my conversations suggested that right after the holidays president biden is

geared up to announce. that's contrary to my assumption. the incredible showing on the democrat side of the elections has changed that trajectory. from everything i've seen, president biden is geared up to launch right after we get back from the holidays. tom: henrietta treyz as congress scatters to a year-end close. what are you looking at lisa? you are over there pounding away. lisa: what i was thinking about was what she just said. the jawboning about the deficit and how they will continue to spin freely and how this will play into the belief that there would be a shift. it's interesting to me. i don't think that is talked about as much as it should. the market is pretty quiet.

it feels like the first day ahead of the holiday after a really busy week. tom: first of all, we got blindsided by the bank of japan. am i right, no one saw that coming? lisa: there were some tea leaves about a week earlier that perhaps they were opening to some changes but it took the market by surprise. tom: are we going to be surprised by claims here? lisa: stay with us, when we will be looking at claims. tom: michael mccabe looking at continuing claims. this is bloomberg, stay with us. ♪

>> "bloomberg surveillance" we welcome all of you here. economic data today coming out. i will have that here for you in a moment. claims is important. average is something on the bloomberg as well but clinically -- there are continuing claims. michael mckee says i should focus on continuing, these are much bigger numbers. jobless claims let's call it to 20. 216 a more constructive number. the moving average in front of me but continuing claims still

study may be to watch in the weekly data to come. the third blush of gdp. >> can i point out the market really moved on this data, on the initial jobless claims. it the two year yield, you can tell people are concerned about the tightness in the labor market that seems to be confirmed by this. how many surprises can we get? people not filing for jobless claims, people are looking at a severe downturn. >> i have a shock number as well. a third look at third-quarter gdp ending september 30 is 2.9%. this is more buoyant, three point 2%, personal consumption.

what i do, lisa, is i take 3.2% as i edit to the gdp price index and i have a nominal gdp of 7.6% which is that buoyancy. >> and core pce coming upwards from 4.6%. all of this speaks to the willingness for consumers to keep spending. where is it? >> we have curve inversion. -57 basis points, and we have a perfect guests to speak of this. futures -20, dow futures comes out immediately. suddenly it is an interesting thursday. it has been an interesting 2022. economist at citigroup, they

were way out front of a terminal rate i give them credit with bloomberg economics as well reaffirm that this morning veronica clark, i don't know if you have seen this data. to be very direct this data confirms the rate, doesn't it? >> it's a bit interesting to see markets move on a third release of gdp. we have gotten this data a couple times already. they were pretty big revisions. growth number, stronger consumption, you know that solberg you want to see the strength and activity. i think especially the core pce number, markets are hoping to see a softer inflation now and we are not getting it yet. >> what is your interpretation where the temp -- chairman gets a lousy labor market. what is the study you have of the disinflation path forward?

do you see a greater disinflation, everything considered? >> i think we will get some overall softer inflation prints in 2023 but it will be because of things like goods prices. we nationals are prices and inflation prices will be softening. but, yeah, you need to seal the liberal market to be convinced that the third compartment will come back down to 2% because we don't see a path for that to happen until the premarket loosens. >> we were talking about this, there is disconnect from your outlook. what the market is saying, and i'm almost surprised that the market didn't respond. and this is also initial jobless claims but still the evidence keeps coming in that you are seeing strength, you are seeing

resilience and the fed will make good on what they are saying. what will it take to trigger a reset in terms of market expectations? >> focused on the last two reports. just listen to the cpi data in 2022 it will tell you the fed was going to be markup hawkish than they thought. maybe that is the right move now but i would caution against that because getting into 2023, we still have some upside risk even to things like used car prices. you do have a lot of non-sheltered surfaces if you look at where wage growth has been it's telling you the prices should be higher still. >> i'm glad you mentioned used cars because we have been talking about it all morning. carmax came out with numbers way about -- way below what was expected. generally, the idea this is

where you are getting the disinflation. prices for used cars were there -- art deflating. how much does that have to go is that a 2022 story or will that deflation continue next year? >> this is a really tricky component because it's not necessarily telling us much about underlying inflation trends. this is a supply driven type of inflation. we have had pretty big compliance for the last two reports. that is why we run below .4. you see some of that again in december but the best measures we have of where used car prices are going are the wholesale measures. we got data earlier this week that shows they are starting to increase again. it is not a clear downward trend as we get into 2023. and been tori is still very short. that's keeping dealers from

cutting prices dramatically. >> there is a belief out there that the world ends as we know it. i know citigroup economics doesn't believe that but what does our world look like with a 5% plus terminal rate? i think into the outlooks of next year there is a huge mystery to that. >> i think our rate of 525-550 is not necessarily the most dire situation. we do have the unemployment rate rising it is a high enough rate to cause a mild recession but we are not talking seven or 8% unemployment. >> do you see evidence of a labor market troubled? i don't see the evidence other than the flash of every financial institution except citigroup. i just don't see the evidence. >> i think if you start with the

assumption that the federal do what it takes to control inflation in our view that is getting rates that these two 5.25-5.50. may need to see a loosening idly -- in the labor market. we would expect it start to rise. >> stay with us, good morning to you economics data, day 30 here. yes, it's a thursday before the holiday, yes it is boring. futures deteriorate. i'm going to call it down 121. lisa, three basis points, two year yield, i guess it's he is

>> going to raise field. we can't be complacent that we are going to continue with the disinflationary impulse. when we start to go into the granularity it becomes interesting because we can see some of the disinflation changes course. are there other areas like that? were some of the aspects of the inflation that have brought on inflation this year will reverse and go the other way next year? i think about gasoline costs and oil prices and what you were talking about with used cars. are there other components that currently are currently accounting for? >> i think there are underappreciated risks i think most people expect supply chains have been better. that means softer core goods prices. there are some risks. trying to reopen -- china reopening.

there are a lot of people falling ill and not being able to work and that creates new supply issues. >> veronica, thank you so much. we appreciate it. i guess fully employed america gets a going but i'm sorry it's stunning ending september 30. >> what is it driven by? personal consumption. the initial rate of 1.7%. this is the third revisiting of the data. it kind of speaks to what we are talking about. getting a clean read on what's going on. >> capital markets along that line, the consumer, how resilient. strategy, that is a surprise

here at the end of the season and what i have to cook for christmas dinner i will be adding to the consumption. >> i thought you were doing the ham. >> i have to do like three stops at four grocery stores can you imagine what the lines will be like? >> i guess you will find out. >> do you read the magazines when you are in line and >> put them back? >>i haven't done that since i was about 15. >> this is going to be an interesting holiday moment because people still have jobs and the sentiment that we got speaks to that. people are leveling up but they are getting wage gains. how do you punch this into the consensus? >> i'm looking at seven percent plus i will defer to the experts. against all the gloom of last summer as well. i go back and dare i say it's not to america, it's three.

there is in america that all the politicians, everyone has to decide is a lost america. i think it has grown is my bed for the day but then there's an america dealing with their recession, dealing with inflation. >> i will say that probably the quote of the morning comes from the investment group. all of these, make a game plan and stick to it unless it is not working. we will discuss the aspects. as i take off i'm going to leave. >> are you leaving now? >> i'm going to leave, yeah. >> nobody tells me you're leaving. >> i'm taking off, i will see you tomorrow. >> do i have to be there tomorrow? >> you do, we will brief you on

that. >> first word i'm lisa mateo. u.k. household incomes fell for a fourth straight order leaving the worst period for standards in memory. disposable income per person declined have a percent in the third quarter according to the office for national statistics. gross domestic products also fell. the cost of living squeeze already push the u.k. into a lengthy recession that may last until the end of next year. a new analysis shows china is experiencing one million covid infections and 5000 virus deaths every day. it focuses on productive analytics covid is making its way virtually unchecked. hospitals are overwhelmed and patients and crematorium's are being pushed will be on their capacity. j.p. morgan chase is up against climate ambitions the firm is

announcing a slew of new emissions reductions for financing to carbon intensive businesses. including airlines and make -- manufacturers. the biggest report published it plans to reduce the carbon intensity of aviation financing portfolio. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomgerg by quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers

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this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. this is the next generation of ge. >> how you would call our session, we are just not there. there is room for the fed to step down because it probably

gets better over the next couple of months. >> he has been optimistic and he just got a third quarter gdp report. going back to september 30 ending but nevertheless the consumer per second has been a message on this thursday and it speaks to the pushing away from recession fears. we also know peter who had a recession call but said everybody is wrong about tomorrow, it is out there somewhere. markets moving, futures -15 are now -30. adt -- deterioration is stick on the nasdaq. vix is going ticket -- to get a print here soon. fully employed america and a stunning 3.2% q3 gdp. all of that makes for a good economy.

someone who is steadfastly bullish, waiting for recession although position is here as many opine. mr. troyer has changed his view to moving forward with caution. to find a level of caution, tony dwyer as we slip into 2023. >> thank you for having me. it is not a new call for us and ultimately it comes down to when the, jerome powell where he said in early june that he was referring to how it wasn't inverted yield curve, try to curtail economic activity which would stabilize the inflation rate, when he did a generational lull, we are at a generational high.

you have to be careful you get you wish for. the yield curves inverted like they are, and so many indicators it did not go into recession. >> does inflation come down quicker and if that is the case how does that fold into your equity strategy? >> for the better part of the last 12 years as you know, i have -- early this year when we took a more defensive posture because of the way inflation was trending it meant that the fed was going to have to do but they are doing to a levered system. i don't see how that is healthy so i think at this point, folks are looking at maybe not the wrong date of put -- but inflation isn't going to be the issue any 2023. it's coming down aggressively. the problem is labor inflation

is defined by non-housing related services from jerome powell's last press conference which makes up 50% of core inflation. that is still rising and that makes it more difficult for them to lower inflation to their desired level. >> if my mandate says i have to on stocks, where do i hide? >> the hardest part about this is when you go, like you said it would be historically unique. to have already made the low for the s&p 500 prior to the recession so even though defensive sectors are expensive, it's kind of a consensus call. that is typically what works as you enter a recession into the first part of it on the market makes a lull, i want to be in a

position. that was earlier this year. i want to attack the weaknesses that happened because the worse the economy is now, the better the market can be because the fed will be up to lower rates. >> and energy is the darling this year. we saw energy 110, 120. call of the year by ed morris and other people were trying to model up is energy sustained and if so what kind of oil sector do you buy? >> you don't buy economically sensitive sectors. if we don't have a recession this is wrong. energy fits in with that. industrials which has become everybody's new favorite area industrials make the -- it is

typically right before a procession and it is always different this time so again the energy space has already come down a bit but it is everybody's favorite. at this point, as we head toward a procession i have moved more towards a defense measure. >> as you say you participated even with caution is see you get shops along the way. the bank of japan, tony dwyer folks. his bank of japan paragraphs mentioning jon ferro you didn't mention me, you mentioned jon ferro but this is the kind of shocks that lead to things unwind. things become clear and i get a comfort to own stocks, right? >> may be. this kind of volatility it could be perceived good or bad.

the issue is the european central bank, all the central banks are tightening. that restricts money. we love formulas, we love quad programs, we love to say smart words. you can't spend money you don't have. the reason the economy is doing well right now is earlier this year we transitioned from buying stuff to doing stuff. when you reopen the global economy, people want to get out and do things. that's what we have now, the issue going forward is where are we going to get new money? unemployment rate kicks up. it starts to slow, it is already historically slowing with liquidity based on the fed action. where are you going to get the money for excess growth? >> i look at the washington dated this morning and 3.2% gdp it's like paragraph j, it says the dwyer family single-handedly

supported the needle on gdp by their air force -- airfares. >> christmas comes every day it's on the front stoop and its part by amazon. >> i don't observe things that badly. can i participate in this consumer bomb with the stocks barely off their pandemic was? >> again it comes down to expectation and the recession. like i said it would be historically unique going into next year if that's true, we are six months into this, four months ago people were screaming about how expensive used cars are and how expensive other goods are. you couldn't even come close to getting enough semiconductors. we have to be careful because in terms of human need.

>> you are too young to remember 74, 75. there is a point where you have to slip into the market as you turn. you are expert at knowing the point of turn. clearly you are saying don't turn now but what will you look for to know when to get into equities in may, june, july whatever? >> not the initial rate cut. when you go into recession the fed is getting really aggressive about lowering interest rates and they would love to talk too much. back in the -- you want to see them bring it lower and eat -- acknowledge the economic weakness but human nature indicator oversoul conditions, what we call luscious typically show up when the fred -- fed is easing the market.

as we said that should happen somewhere in the next half. >> we have to go, it's wicked cold saturday in this region. i want you to be careful on the zamboni in the backyard. mr. dwyer is with cad accord to be honest i have never heard him, folks. that cautious -- caution in the market. we do so off a buoyant gdp. 2.9% up to 3.2%, claims just a fully employed america. initial jobless claims 216,000. they continue to deteriorate at this moment, -34 please stay tuned to us on radio, on television, mark kimmitt at the

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>> supposed --that was supposed to be a sleepy day but we are seeing equity features off the morning highest -- 1%. the countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trip trading -- u.s. trading. this is bloomberg markets the open with jonathan ferro. >> the final data points of