>> this is the most expected and most anticipated procession ever. >> we are not going into recession. >> we have the unemployment rate rising. it is a high enough rate to cause a mild recession. >> you will see a recovery before we get out of recession. >> our baseline is the u.s. economy will avoid recession. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. we are looking at potato au

gratin recipes. lisa is looking to get away. good luck with that. lisa: such sweet wishes. tom: we welcome all of you before we are off on the holiday. yes, we are all off next week. thank you to our staff are making that happen. we have an overlay of things. we are thrilled that bob diamond -- that bob diamond will be with us in the 8:00 hour to speak of his dear friend scott minerd. that is the first order of business. we'll talk about minard on the show. all of us at surveillance in absolute shock. also in shock over the mother of all storms. people have looked back to 1978. this is the real deal. it was biblical rain coming in today. lisa: definitely is it is going to freeze over and create a situation.

[laughter] hopefully i get out, hopefully you all get out. if you had a flight, i hope it was not one of the 3300 that have been canceled. this is going to be a busy moment. everybody is trying to get away. today, you cannot leave because there is important data and discussions about how an. is going to be a pivot point. tom: michael mckee will be with us. look at the didn't up today. we have a michigan survey. it was the bear but now it is important. durable goods are part of the pce calculation which is what mckee will focus on. lisa: will walk through all of the data after what investors just pool be most data out. $42 billion from equities. you also have money withdrawn from bonds. this is a question.

have we reached the end of the withdrawal of free money and the end of the tightening or is this to beginning of a cascade a lot people are expecting in the beginning of next year? tom: i hope you stay with us through all surveillance today. are you through the 9:00 or do you exit right after the failure -- after the show? lisa: i'm trying to fly out of here. tom: chicago was negative eight with a wind chill of -20. then he moved to columbus, ohio at 052 is 40 degrees in pittsburgh. carol will have important reports for you as well we have ryan k sullivan up in boston with us. we have an optimist on with the so we are going to get lisa to do the brief. are you ready to do the brief or are you still making it up? lisa: i am always making it up. but today, there are really

important data points. tom: dated up. lisa: 8:30 am, we get u.s. personal consumer spending for november. we have seen personal spending come off. it is expected to just inch higher but the question is the resilience of the pce core inflection data. it is expected to come down but not that much. there is not downward trajectory that is as direct as the broader cpe index. how much has an sentiment continued to go upward? we saw yesterday that's it really tracks oil prices and gasoline prices. tom: on a data friend, it is a bounce. up big two days ago, down yesterday, and right now up. to me, the vix is telling of

this december week. we ought to be at 23 or 24 but we are not. we are at 21.4. the bloomberg index is showing accommodation, not restriction. a little bit of a distant version. i guess i will call the two-year yield 4.28%. worth watching as well. jonathan ferro dealing with heavy rains in southern england. lisa: at 2:00 p.m., the bond market closes early and marks a coda to a year that has been dramatic. tom: are you going to celebrate with an option here? lisa: [laughter] nope i'm to has been a remarkable month this month. tom: we get an intern to get a paper by 12 noon at why the equity markets are not closing early?

to be have any idea why? lisa: no idea. tom: john for's new this, the chief investment strategist at oppen co.. you have been bowled with a select few others and maintained your bullish dance. you have the kurds to move out the excess into 2023 -- the courage to move out the excess into 2023. is your bullishness and the recession call out? are they linked? >> to some extent, there is risk of a recession. we had a montage was just a little between points of the show in the commercial section and everybody was speaking with great authority of whether we were supposed to believe were moving into a race should or not. no one really knows.

we think you might skirt a recession or if we do have a recession, it will be relatively light. the economy resistance is pretty clear by the economic data. yesterday, it turned into madness for the market because people thought it gave the said reason to start raising rates for long. there is an opportunity that is 12 months ahead of us to really see the markets come back. we do not think it is going to be necessarily a year of robustness but resilience shows we could get back to a sustainable place. tom: lisa abramowicz is too young to remember -- and there i was looking at nike's inventory success of moving sneakers out after they bought too many or had too many drinking pandemic. how do you extrapolate the good news of fedex and nike a few days ago out in the john stoltzfus optimism?

>> we have to say we think this is evidence of exceptional management team utilizing technology to arrive at solutions to help them navigate through really turbulent waters. we have seen corporations do this through the pandemic. earlier they did this to the financial crisis recovery period. they are working at it right now. it is not that all corporations will succeed at that but whether you are small or large, we suggest you go for quality. lisa: one shift we have heard in tony's people pushing back expectations of -- in tone is people pushing back expectations of one will see recession. is that a good longer-term scenario for stocks or a good short-term trading opportunity? >> i think it is good for the longer term. i will never forget that in

2009, we were early on the bullish cost and everybody was always looking for the next fall with an authoritative stance that just did not happen. we think that this year, 2023, the new year, is going to take it back to where we once belonged in the sense that we are going to see fundamentals become more important rather than momentum in projecting anything negative today, forward negative, into infinity. we think better things are yet to come and some evidence is proof in the two companies tom mentioned. good things can happen with good management. lisa a: i want to pick up what you said. that next year will be a more fundamental story. which stocks do you think did not treat on fundamentals? >> the first thing is to remember the selloff, the

maximum drawdown -- i will just say the total economy was 48% down in 2008. this year we are only down 18% or 19%. we have been worse than that. at the same time, this is not 2008. it is a very different structure. we have to say that we look at the environment, it appears to us there is a lots of opportunity for positive surprises coming out. part of this is we do not think jerome powell wants to go down in history as the first time were taken into a bad recession. tom: big tech, everybody hates it. massively unloved. john stoltzfus on big tech? >> i really like big tech but i like big tech that is embedded in daily lives of individuals, not from a social media

perspective, but more towards manufactured products and equipment. very much the industrial sector. we like industrials because it is heavily embedded with technology. tom: in you cannot mention individual securities but hold still while in take a photo with my iphone for you. we thank him for his optimism along with others this year. can we just generalize -- not to bust your chops bramo, but it is pretty gloomy out there. look at the equity market, you have to go about 40-50 years. lisa a: i do not think it is that gloomy. if you look at what people are saying, perhaps recession is delayed, pushed out there. perhaps there will not even be a recession. the soft landing has made a rebound. tom: i am looking at the survey

and personal income is a plunge. i don't know if we have a shot of this yet. lisa is traveling today. we are in torrential downpour is here. lisa a: are you just trying to troll me? there is no way i'm going to get out? tom: this is a shot from the top of lisa's apartment. it is a really beautiful shot. we are going to send nelly wasik out into the field -- sonali basak out to the field with did not work out. lisa a: do you want me to do commentary from the airport? waiting in line. tom: stay with us, good morning. sonali: keep you up-to-date with lucian around the world. lisa and -- lisa m: elon musk says he will not share any more

tensile stock for at least three months. the company is more confidence in the rest of the economy. they have sold off almost $40 billion most of the stock this year mostly to find elon musk purchase of twitter. sam bankman-fried has been released on a $250 million bail package. a prosecutor causes one of the largest pretrial bonds in u.s. history. the package includes a personal bond secured by his parents house in california. the terms require him to stay with his parents and to submit to electronic monitoring. meta has agreed to pay $725 million to settle a long-running lawsuit that there's -- claims facebook allegedly sold data.

-- gained access to as many as 7 million of the social media networks prescribers. a massive storm is hitting the u.s.. the national weather service says more than 200 million people, 50% of the nation's population, are under some form of winter weather advisory. this is working havoc on american travel plans ahead of christmas. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and on "bloomberg quicktake", powered by more than 2700 different journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we believe we have room needs on the defense side, now with ukraine more than ever but we believe there are just as many and just import on the domestic side. we got a lot done here. the budget was bigger. tom: senator schumer, a democrat from new york. from a-ism top of the story this morning. a really interesting year in politics. lisa wants to talk covid in china and will do that in a

moment. this is off of google this morning and this is the fiction that is out there. china debts from covid zero, seven day average, 1. that is fiction. lisa a: it is an open secret that it is fiction. president xi jinping has yet to comment on this. yes they did pass the covid -- the omnibus spending bill. tony blinken, secretary of state, was talking with his counterpart in china and saying let us help you, we are worried about the lack of transparency and the virus cases. tom: what can the secretary of state do? i feel that we are talking about the sec department of justice and finance. what can we do? lisa a: he is saying, let us send you some gear, some vaccines, let us help you get this under control.

we have dealt with us also. they have not gotten anyone to take the up with that. tom: i think that coming out of the antiscience, to be optimistic, you will have to be -- to see. it will be a full-time effort for everyone as well. there is trading and surveillance is reporting the bond market closing at 2:00 p.m. as well. they stagger into the week with the bond price down about 15%. worst case for the year. lisa a: yes. a worse performance going back decades and decades questionably and potentially ever. tom: we will have to see right now. do we have terry? i have not heard from amy. the control room is up. we have terry haynes. think you so much for joining us with pentium policy. i want to talk about the

philosophical idea mr. haynes. this is out of the post. basically selective republican set on their hands for mr. dolinsky -- mr. zelenskyy. others did not even bother showing up as mr. mccarthy played with his microphone. i find fascinating is the post did a body count and found a few republicans felt that way. yet i see in the republican zeitgeist that this is a huge opinion of republicans. which is it? how narrow is that part of the republican party? terry: i think what you get is a situation where you have fringes on both sides. we have long talked about the four factions in the congress as opposed to the two parties.

what republicans want is accountability on ukraine funding. that is fine, they can get that in a variety of different ways. but they are also trying to make political points, shopper, i know. political points on fiscal restraint and too much debt. that is where you see the fill in more than anything else. tom: to drive us into next year. the most interesting battle, we do not know what president biden is going to do, but if it is republican, the fact is president trump a core constituency as a certain size. do you think as a grizzled pro that they will switch their faith or religion to somebody else? are they going to shift? terry: i think some of them will. my view now has been for a wild i think president trump has

jumped the shark politically. it is a combination of two things. january 6 and post january 6 behavior, combined with the fact he has now permitted -- commit to the other thing in politics which is a serial loser. going back to the 2020 election and now the midterms in georgia runoff. which you have here is somebody who is, among other things, adjusting the constitution should be suspended to accommodate histories about the 2020 election plus being a serial loser. republican party has been trying to get past trump for some time in this combination has only made things more urgent. i think they do. they are going to try to keep as many trump likes supporters is possible that they have been for a while. i think they have been for a wild but it is at the point when republican leaders think it is

more important to conserve the brand. lisa a: after 2022, what will be the main issue, the main economic challenges in 2023? this is the reason why i was pointing to the story of china and the u.s. pushing them to accept aid from the u.s. to try to curtail the virus spread. how important is the story in shaping 2023 politically? terry: it is very important. what you have is a situation where the overture from secretaries of state blinken shows the u.s. continues to be interested in constructive engagement with the people's republic of china and their government. he wants to be helpful wherever they can. there is some text here which is that we can help you that shows that they cannot help themselves to some extent. that is a problem that the chinese government probably

cannot get over quickly or easily. nonetheless, it shows an outstretched hand and a concern for the humanitarian side of the tragedy that has been unfolding in china for some time. that is all really good but what you see is kind of a poll of u.s.-china relations. i think that will continue and it is important for 2023. lisa a: what about immigration? i ask this because we have been talking about the worker shortage and yet there is a fight about the immigration restrictions left over from former president trump's reign. how much do you see republicans getting on board democrats for 2023 and allowing more immigration deco -- where immigration policy? terry: i think immigration policy is broken and has been for at least a decade. the last time the parties tried

to engage constructively on immigration policy was in 2013. since then, they have not and that is to the country's detriment. for citizens, i hope they will but there is a goals between the two parties on lots of things, including a path to citizenship. the last time they engage constructively, there was a centrist coalition that tried to bridge the gap. they'll be very tough when you have two of the factions -- liberal the requests that want to open policy and conservative republicans that want control and people only entering the company -- country legally. it can be done but will take a huge amount of effort. the supreme court will kick that off with their ruling of title 42 becoming. tom: thank you for the brief on

this friday, december. terry haines of panagaea policy. this happened overnight. i was not aware until 10 minutes ago. last season, my absolute favorite baseball game of the year was a guy pitching for the san francisco giants. his name was carlos roda. i am not stunned but here he is signing with the yankees. this is a spectacular success. lisa a: yankees fans, before he even signed, said to have money to venmo to try to get him on and take matters into their own hands. tom: i would pay a thousand bucks to see him go on.

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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance". >> this is "bloomberg technology". >> welcomed the balance of power. tom: good morning everyone. we hope you are safe. particularly out driving with bloomberg radio or watching bloomberg television. coast-to-coast challenges of ice, the dreaded dark eyes, and torrential rains on the east coast. we are going to do a complete data check. i want to mention that bob diamond will be with us in the 8:00 hour in honor of his good friend scott minerd. we are all shaking and will get to that through the morning. right now a data check. i am going to on equities. the vix is 21.93.

up big coming down big. who knows what it will be. the dow is down 33,000. the moving average converges. you are going to talk to simons about equities at doldrums. lisa a: we also do not talk amongst -- talk enough about the selloff. the bond selloff in stock selloff. the nasdaq is down almost double what the s&p is down last year. these are the kinds of numbers we are talking about. a 15% decline in bonds for the year. how to be reset? is this enough? that is one of the key questions going into next year. hopefully see the full resolve of new money or is this a beginning of a new era of investment? tom: my answer is be heard from john stolotzfus.

it will be really interesting to see use of cash next year. free cash flow, if that helps divide the market from the gloom you are talking about. what do we do with oil when we are looking at $69 6-7 days ago and we are now at $79. brent crude is of $82. i should call it brent dog. lisa a: you should. we should also mention the dollar in the weakness we have seen. this morning, talking about how perhaps we'll get a weaker dollar that will give life to be riskier assets throughout the world. tom: citigroup with a small amount off the tokyo desk this morning, saying they do not think they can sustain the bond purchases of pulling in essentially private peoples and companies bonds into the

government through february. they cannot get the present strategy. citigroup eluding the decision trade for the bank of japan and the people of japan is closer than some think. lisa a: especially after inflation data came out of japan overnight and it was once again 3.7% suppressed by subsidies to a whole host of things in the government is trying to keep that down, with core inflation exceeding their price target for eight straight months. there is a theory that haruhiko kuroda would like to get ahead of his accident in april because he does not want to leave the mess to his successor to lift the band-aid at this point. tom: the final data point which we will do because katie greifeld is here. bitcoin is down 6%. that is called doing a tesla. katie greifeld joins us now.

". when he woke up today, what did you focus on in the crypto world? katie: of the focus is still on sam bankman-fried. tom: still on the soap opera of this guy? are you kidding me? katie: it is the only news we have when you think about where the potential next shoe to drop is. we know for sure what is happening with sam bankman-fried because it is playing out so publicly. the news yesterday was the $250 million bail bond. tom: this was a series that silly conversation. the adults are saying, down, this is how it works. are you surprised this clown did not plead guilty coming off the plane? katie: it is interesting. that is the next point to watch. his next appearance is january

3, so maybe not today but that is what we are watching for. he has maintained until he was arrested he was not committing intentional fraud at ftx but that it was gross mismanagement. that gets harder to defend when you have the likes of caroline ellison and gary wang, flipping and cooperating with prosecutors and saying this was fraud. tom: i feel like it is almost a celebrity and. i know jonathan ferro is on the same page as i am. i do not know where you are lisa but i am offended by the whole thing. i am speaking from a distance. you know how negative i am on this thing. everything is about finance. what should our viewers and listeners focus on with a strange may be foreign company that the doj cannot get their tentacles around deco what do we look for for financing in the last week of the year?

katie: the biggest thing is we report on what is going on and how big it is, according to data we have. 53% in market volume in november. tom: when i say bitcoin on a saturday morning, much of this is coming off ftx? katie: two thirds of derivatives trading in the crypto space is going through finance. member we had the senate hearings in december. it feels like a year ago but that was in this month. bill haggerty said if we similarly saw a explosion in finance, that would be catastrophic for the industry. like thomas pointed out, for bitcoin it is not doing much. it is down 5% but has not wiggled around too much. if finance goes under, that is a different story. lisa a: there are three reasons

i am fascinated by the story. i will tell you where i stand on this. there is a theory out there that the current regulation was significant to cover this and that has been the line for a lot of congress members and the fcc. this raises a question of what went wrong. there is a question of culpability and how much he shunts the guilt because he gave a lot of the money away, and then there is a political angle of donations. let's start with the first one that regulations were not sufficient to stop this. where are they saying this? where is the transparency in terms of oversight? that it would have been sufficient to stop as if he was not so clever? what are they saying? katie: i would not say it was sufficient given that it did not stop this. for the past two years, we have had philosophical discussion about who has authority over

these? a lots of u.s. customers lost money. it is a question and now you are seeing three different agencies, the doj, the cftc, the fcc come out in charge ftx. it feels like there was are -- obviously a failure. where it goes from here is a push to do something. but that actually looks like i am not sure. lisa a: is also the issue of highly intelligent and highly capable people, innovators who are celebrated as such, who are basically playing with monopoly money. there is a question whether this indicts an entire creative industry. how much is that people are talking about in terms of select corridors in this intellectual heft that is input into what could be great innovation?

katie: i think that is an interesting narrative. at the end of the day, this was simple in terms of the fraud committed. you had ftx and money was coming in from customers and they were funneling it alameda, a different company. we were not supposed to do that. then, maybe the stuff alameda did was more complicated and sophisticated at the end of the day, i was simple. i forgot how the new ceo of ftx handled it but he said this is old-fashioned embezzlement. lisa a: how much of the money is going to get recouped? katie: that is an open question. there is still billions out there to recover. the process is ongoing and expected to take years. tom: i don't know where tesla is this morning but it had a your yesterday. what are the ramifications to these players?

again, i circle back to finance. and the illegal and alleged activity that flows through finance. what are the ramifications of 16,800 bitcoin becoming 13,000. this the price of bitcoin matter in the crypto world of kailey leinz -- daily lives? katie: bitcoin miners are not actually out there with picks and shovels but when you think about the hardware they have to bind how much they have locked into these machines, it is fairly -- it is very important. tom: those two below zero in abilene matter? katie: absolutely. some crypto miners have had to shut off their machines to alleviate some stress on the grid.

tom: what is this due to the price? katie: in terms of price, be the direct fact to the minors is not there but it affects the minors. you have seen a wave of vacancies in the crypto minors space so there is where big problem. tom: i am just keeping my mouth shut. silencing her was a surveillance court in my mouth. i think you so much. lisa a: this is interesting because there is an issue with innovation. how do you foster innovation and a new concept to potentially create interesting infrastructure that could make things better while weeding out bad actors? this really throws a damper on this. tom: ok, i am in trouble right now. you cannot weed out the bad actors if the underlying does not exist and that is the debate. katie: a tool of commerce is

something we are talking about. tom: it is a currency button on bloomberg, a yellow button and it has not acted like a currency recently. lisa a: sure. you can point to el salvador who tried to hang their currency on bitcoin and it did not work out well. there is also interesting in technology. tom: jonathan, come home and save me. lisa a: i think you would agree with me. tom: tom: we will find out. jonathan ferro, call from a pay phone outside exeter. going into the 8:00 hour with our dear friend, bob diamond. this is bloomberg, good morning. ♪ lisa m: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first work, i am lisa mateo. the house committee

investigating january 6 has delivered a scathing report blaming former president donald trump for inciting violence. this report details trumps behind-the-scenes fury and his effort to pressure state officials in the justice department to overturn the presidential election. in china, soaring covid cases are causing a drop in economic activity. there is less traffic congestion in major cities, fewer flights, and fewer people taking the subway. more cities have infections leading to hospitals pack. inflation in japan has further accelerated to its fastest pace since 1980 one. consumer prices, excluding fast food, is up 3.7% from a year ago. the boj will probably surprise

marcus again with increases early in the year. scott minerd has died. guggenheim says in a statement that he passed away during a heart attack during his regular work out. he was a leader through the 1980's and 90's and worked at morgan stanley and credit suisse. he was 63. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and on "bloomberg quicktake", powered by more than 2700 different journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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>> we need to be humble, right now the labor market is tight in the fed will not back off and it is a inflation fight. i think there is a disconnect

between what the markets are thinking and where they are actually going to end up. i think markets are probably affect -- expect in the fed to back off once it starts to slow. tom: ravina for rocchi -- farroqi. lisa abramowicz, tom keene. jonathan ferro on assignment. we are watching the weather across this nation. torrential rain in new york city. we hope you are safe as well. bob diamond to come up here on this tragic loss of scott minerd. we are also looking into what the ashes into this year with lisa and i exit. you want to talk about wall street. there is only one story in new york's we speak with sonali basak. first, talk to scott minard frankly more than anybody did.

everybody thinks that scott and i were close but we were not. we talked to each other in interviews but you talk to scott as part of her reporting a lot. you have a vignette from 2020 about with the minor distinction was in the pandemic. sonali: he had 10% of his portfolio tied to airlines as the pandemic was coming. everybody thought he was crazy when he was warning about any economic shutdown in 2020. later he actually suffers from long covid for a while but he did earlier on stop everything, some travel, go to california and begun selling. there was a moment when he pivoted and it was the bottom of the market, march 23, the lowest day of the s&p when the fed stepped in. he knew popped -- as a fed watcher and critic that that

would be the pivotal point of the market. he put $70 billion to work. lisa a: this nimbleness was also reflected by his life. the ability at age 37 to say that i am done with this, and moved to new york -- from new york to california to pursue bodybuilding on venice beach. this concept of choosing yourself and just going with your gut. how much did he get rewarded for going with his guts at a time when others did not feel that freedom? sonali: he was often criticized for it. people said his claims were bold and sometimes they were wrong, sometimes they were right, but isn't that everybody? when it came to scott's, there was the message he always preached which was never hire an optimistic bond manager. downside protection. tom: i need to talk about goldman sachs.

any number of media organizations seems to be at the top of the pile. how at risk is mr. solomon's tenure at goldman sachs? sonali: he is in two year five -- into year five. remember, this is the zeitgeist, the uprising. bonuses are falling on wall street. a worry that you are taking from peter to pay paul. this idea that they are going to have the second-best year by revenue ever but consumer business lost $4 million -- $4 billion since 2019. tom: this is important. are you aware of this lease of that the business is great except the bank? so an industrial banker at goldman sachs has to have less bonus? is that true? sonali: you have to think about this in two ways. what is the new consumer

business look like under david solomon? clearly things have been peeled back. there are big business lines that will not see the day of liked like checking. but goldman sachs will keep that they want to keep. they have something on their side. the engineers that would go to meta just a couple months ago are probably not doing that. they are not running to crypto because firms are falling apart. tom: we discussed that with katie. lisa a: i wonder how much of this is lip service and how much banks will get ahead by saying we are going to cuts bonuses and be humble at time when they are still lots of money. if you look at income, particularly interest income, how much is this a message? sonali: goldman sachs has been holding up in the stock market and holding well by revenue but you have to trailing from a price-two-book perspective and

making banking decisions early on. you saw them do two of the biggest deals since the financial crisis in the heat of the pandemic at low evaluations. the question is david going to do something transformative for goldman sachs? sonali: this is coming into a period of distress and questions about what banks do with loans? and things of that nature that they will have to sell to the market. how much of that is a concern and how much of that has been oversold? sonali: it is not overplayed at all. goldman sachs can do their laugh about missing that on the twitter site. morgan stanley, when it comes to twitter itself, they were pushing so hard so there's that position them not to fight as hard in leverage loans to come back? there is also the fact that big banks are shedding customers so why are they losing millions of dollars on leverage loans?

lisa a: could twitter be owned by morgan stanley? sonali: you are talking about the prospect of bankruptcy. that is a scary thought for lenders. i would say there is a whole other side of this. tom: i want to go to your reporting and everything else on the street, to redo what you sent four minutes ago. a banker, a trader at goldman sachs is going to receive reduced bonus because of the consumer bank challenges at goldman sachs. is that what you said? sonali: on the record, on television with us, david solomon said firmwide performances what they are going to pay off. tom: he is under the delusion that he is going to pay traders which after an aggregate performance at goldman sachs. sonali: the flip is he said the wars are sticky. tom: is mr. gorman -- i am not

saying he has slowness in advanced finances but is he doing the same thing in applying an aggregate performance or slow down to high-performing bonuses? sonali: you have cft reporting that bonuses could fall by 40% at goldman sachs. tom: did their business fall by 40%? sonali: goldman sachs today is leading in mergers and acquisitions by almost 10 percentage points. 10. for them to cut bonuses by 40%, it is leverage. where are these bankers going to go? tom: i have never heard this. i have never heard that you can take derivatives traders in the sweat and humble -- sonali: this is pencil sharpening.

the numbers are not set in stone. if you say 40, everybody else's 40. lisa a: i also view this as the big next waves of layoffs will be in the middle sectors with the cartel met. if you look at how much the staff has been asked ended, there are many areas where you could cut while keeping the staff you want to. tom: aren't they laying off old-style people and hiring digital animals and computing? sonali: what is interesting about that is even with the 4000 headcount below, there are still higher than a few years ago. lisa a: yes. it is absolutely painful. sonali: if you think about how much they have grown, it is a drop in the bucket. even from firms that citadel hiring, you see so many hedge

fund firms in the big talent takers leading. even the macro funds that have come back are coming back after a bad performance last year. the talent to war is not as intense as you would think at this time. because there is not the money for that. tom: do you believe people will leave these banks because they are 40% off in bonus? sonali: they will and they always do but goldman sachs will probably pay for the people they want to keep and others will be zero out. tom: were brief of the day from sonali basak and she will have that out on digital i am sure soon. challenges for a difficult bonus season. futures up 5%. economic data coming up today. it is a big dump of economic data. lisa abramowicz is focus on pce. this is "bloomberg surveillance". surveillance". so you tap ibm to un-silo your data.

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>> this is the most expected, most anticipated recession ever. >> to be historically unique, we are not going to recession. >> we have the unemployment rate rising at high enough rate to cause a mild recession. >> will see a recovery before we get out of recession. >> the u.s. economy will avoid recession. announcer: this is "bloomberg