>> this is the most expected, most anticipated recession ever. >> to be historically unique, we are not going to recession. >> we have the unemployment rate rising at high enough rate to cause a mild recession. >> will see a recovery before we get out of recession. >> the u.s. economy will avoid recession. announcer: this is "bloomberg

surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. it is not a sleepy friday before a wonderful holiday and final week of the year. this is an important day of important economic data. futures up the six, down features of 74. there was heavy raise in southwestern england. but lisa, there is dated today and you focus on what your own powell -- on what jerome powell focuses on which is pce inflation. lisa a: how much to people end up continuing to fuel inflation? if you get a bigger than expected pots where you do not have as big of a decline in the expected figure, these the stocks run out? or do you see immediate responses everyone waits for the holiday?

tom: looked at gleaming david two days ago but corporate data shows nike and fedex data went up. then, yesterday we had good economic data and be cratered because chairman powell is going to raise rates to 9% or something. lisa a: this is the year that will not die. [laughter] everybody just wants it to end. there is a feeling of going on and on with respect to the data and twists and turns. i do think that china and japan were ending the year with a roll, creating a lot of instability with the projections coming out. tom: i remember acting 73 rolled over into an uglier and can 74 before the nirvana of 75 up out of the great bull market. nobody is really talking about

an extension of this news flow, we were in ukraine, the markets, the end of the pandemic dynamics into next year. it is supposed to be all over but it -- i did not see that. lisa a: it feels a little bit like some people are throwing darts at a dartboard when it comes to projections. because they have no clue. but optimism in the second half seems be prevailing. tom: we have a wonderful guest coming up in a moment to through the dartboard out a few years ago. she has incredible experience through the ebbs and flows of what you should do. i do want to mention i am honored that bob diamond -- i get really emotional about this -- bob diamond will join us in the 8:00 hour. his good friend, scott minerd.

there is an anticipation with the tape, even as lisa mentions that bonds close at two so all of this economic data like michael mckee brought in notice. i think you slept here last night. bonds. the two-year yield, as jonathan ferro would quote, 4.27, of four basis. that is flat. oil with a lift here. we mentioned earlier that currencies trading. the yen is 132.72, maybe some stasis right now. we need a brief of what happens at 8:30. lisa a: it is the pce core inflator. it is expected to come down from 5%. this is the more interesting question to ask heading into 90 minutes from now. does it overwhelm or underwhelm? the upside surprise or downside surprise?

right now everything is fairly traded in everybody is trying to get out. this really could be a potentially massive market moving events. university of michigan sentiment for december and november with new home sales. expect a poppy -- expect a pop in sentiment. we have seen gasoline prices at the lowest rate going back to july 2020 one. 2:00 p.m., bought markets are closing early. tom: option? lisa a: we can option your antique -- auction your antique cup. so far, year-to-date, we have seen in november a four percentage point increase in the two-year yield. now it is around 3.5% to 4.27%. tom: cannot give you a weather

report, robert caro is expected to join me in the 9:00 hour. he calls it is a variant front that comes across. this morning, when i first looked at this, pittsburgh was 48 degrees. just in three hours, it is already down to 28 degrees and feels like 13. lisa a: that is the reason this is actually a really scary storm and becomes a bonsai flow because of the speed. you have steadily 60 degrees difference, bam, in temperatures which creates the black ice and catastrophic scenarios. tom: can you guys imagine lisa doing the weather at like 6:15? lisa a: i was stranded once at

jfk with almost two days because of snow so i have lived the horror stories of airport woes. tom: i have never enjoyed the experience. you have this experience in atlanta, i believe. lisa a: did you have to bring that up? [laughter] let's just hope things go better. tom: we are joined by quincy krosby. quincy has to look at the bigger, broader view with real money handling for scared people. how does your outlook for next year change after bonds priced down this year and equities priced down this year? audi write an outlook forward after what we have seen? quincy: it sounds like lisa talking about the weather over the next few days.

you go through these stages as it is about the weather we have seen all year. starting of the trading for -- the trading floor, you trade in the markets you have, not what you want. we come up with a number of scenarios and try to build guardrails around it. we have three different scenarios in our reports because we know it will change. the data will change, the fed will change. chairman powell tends to go into different monetary lanes when he speaks. that will change too. overall, we want to do is make sure clients get out at the end of next year as best they can. that is the issue. we are lucky this year. there is some luck that the bond market is actually helping. you are not wedded to equities if you do not want to be. if you want to be conservative. you have heard this over and over again all week that's going

down to short durations in treasuries and investment shorts. how great is that? tom: what is important on this is quincy pushes against the gloom that is out there. it is a very measured approach versus the massive gloom reports we are seeing. lisa a: we just saw the biggest weekly outflows ever. he saw $42 billion withdrawn. why did that not have a bigger impact? why are we seeing these massive outflows without the ramifications in price that we may expect? quincy: we have to wait for the earnings. the last couple quarters, we went in with gloomy forecast margins. he came out and it was -- granted, we lower the expectations but nonetheless, they were not -- there were not positive surprises to leave reporters to say it really was

not that bad. we are going into fourth quarter earnings. the question is do we start to see the pressure there? that is why guidance becomes so terribly important. we have to wait and see what companies are saying. and all is said and done, this is about what companies are doing. we tend to forget that because we are listening to people in the media. it is going to be a recession, a deep recession, a modest recession. we do not know that. you're taking all of the data we have now and saying it could be a gold -- a stalled rate. tom: quincy, can you come on the first day of 2023? you know where i am. you have knowledge where i lived but the answer is the level of the gloom right now you can cut

with a knife. what are lpl clients doing? quickly here. are they all in the triple leveraged cash fund? quincy: they have hung in there. one of the things that was most important for the retail advisor was tell me this is not 2007 and 2008 all over again. please tell me that is not what we are seeing in we have gone over all the data with them. this is not 2007-2008. the fed has a mandate. this is the mandate. this congressional mandate with price stability. it is not a great process but it is not like 1980. in paul volcker's year, it is not. we are going to get there. one thing they learned, do not start selling because that is the key. tom: we have to go.

thank you so much. quincy krosby with the kurds to be in the market. i mentioned this to arjun adams the other day. -- martin adams the other day. you have to be in the market to play. that is martin adams 101. lisa a: which market? i think this is an important question because there is a huge tailwind of interest rates going down through decades. this is a serious question. tom: speaking of tailwinds, in pittsburgh, pennsylvania, good morning. freezing traded 23 degrees to minus two below zero in the next four hours. lisa a: is either not make it out, i am blaming you tom. keep it up with the weather reports. tom: the winds never stops. good morning pittsburgh, pennsylvania.

stay warm up there. coming up at 8:00. on mr. minerd, bob diamond. lisa m: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i am lisa mateo. north korea fired ballistic missiles. north korean leader kim jong-un is fighting space to ramp up provocations against the u.s. and its allies as president biden focuses on russia's were in ukraine. the lunch comes three days after the u.s. did a bomber and f-22 stealth fighters to the peninsula for joint drills with south korea. secretary of state antony blinken says they are committed to stand with the government in kyiv for as long as it takes. they are prepared to defend and repair ukraine's energy structure and bolster air defenses including with patriot missiles. discuss the war today in a call

with his chinese counterpart. the tiling prime minister says he will seek to maintain his position. the premier is splitting back from the military backed party that helped him stay in power following a 2019 election. a recent court ruling barred him from holding office beyond april 2025 even if he stays prime minister. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and on "bloomberg quicktake", powered by more than 2700 different journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> mind goal, my wish, is that our new leadership in the house will be based on the foundation we have laid while forming their own approach will do even better than the significant legislators that solicit of successes i have had as speaker of the house. tom: the speaker of the house. whatever your politics, the recent months have been weighing on nancy pelosi and she looks forward to a different washington for her in the coming months and years. we welcome all of you.

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. good to know jonathan ferro is safe in u.k. i think they are instituting actual customs agents. a strike or slow down, one of the two? lisa a: a strike. it is going to clog up a lot and cost even more of a hall over an already sleepy city of london. tom: one of the worst lines i have ever been in was at heathrow. i was standing there being a taurus and he looks at me and i look at him and we are in line for an hour. i figure i can think about what to do with his triple leveraged cash fund. i am the greatest value investor in the planet and i want to talk about industrial companies. all he did was -- the entire time was talk about the new york

yankees. it was like torture. lisa a: that was torture for you? tom: absolute torture. mario cavalli talking the new york yankees. stay with us because in an hour and 15 minutes, a ton of economic data that will move markets. this is a joy to talk about something i am remiss to talk about. i am greatly at fault on this and yet furious. everett mills is with us. he is with raymond james with legit decades on this. he does not go back to the employment retirement security act of 1974. i do and i am just going to state without any hesitation that it is a failure. the people that chronicle this are at boston college and have the best analysis in the country. how big a mess is our retirement plan system? >> there is a lot right in our

retirement plan system but a lot more because get done better. in this omnibus bill, we have some of the biggest changes in a couple decades to retirement included in this bill. the rmd and the requirement distribution ages going up, ultimately to 75. we are going to have more businesses are required to have automatic enrollment and required matching for 401(k) programs. one thing we did during covid is if there was a significant life event for someone where they need to use more of their 401(k) plan money, they could have withdrawals without penalty if there are certain life events. like natural disaster or health. it looks like we are going to shore up the retirement system for something that is good. tom: clarify here what i

consider a soft marked debate. that this bill only benefit the wealthy. the government gets paid taxes eventually, right? if somebody has a good jillion dollars in their 401(k), at some point, the government gets tax revenue, right? >> it is true. which i would focus on is there are a couple of provisions. we have seen news about how if there is a thousand dollar expense, majority of americans cannot actually come up with that money so there are emergency fund satisfied that will be set up within employment programs as well for low income individuals there will be a match with the federal government. oftentimes, this comes as a tax credit but will go directly into the individuals. tom: i did not know that. >> there are a lots of low

income provisions that help other people who usually do not get it. tom: i was at the democratic party convention with a senator from maryland. he was a wonderful guy and he was trying to salvage this disaster of 1974 act which was just partially done. we knew popped -- five years and that it was a disaster. he was physically shaking as he and i were talking about what needed to be done and only now do we begin to address some of this. lisa a: partially because it is always wrapped in politics. mcgrath wanted to get this through before the end of the year and they lost their majority in the house. where are the winds for the democrats and the pushback? >> there are huge changes. this is a one point $7 trillion bill and a 9% increase in the defense budget. i think that is a shot compared

to where people expect the biden administration to be on defense spending. there is a 5% increase on defect -- domestic spending. it is a policy on health care and a number of winds related to tax policy. one thing under the radar that i am watching that is important for inflation is through covid, 18 million americans have added to the roles of medicaid. about 12-15,000,000 of them are probably no longer eligible. your eligibility will come off like -- next year. witnesses due to health care expenses? there are macro impacts of the funding bill. lisa a: i also bring up the social security entries and the 3% raise people are talking about and the costs for adjustment. there have been a number of steps that people point to as inflationary. people coming back into the

workforce would balance out the markets in a more seamless way. do you see the omnibus bill as having a more inflationary result or neutral or distant nation air? >> i would say this is probably having a dis-inflation impact. the 5% increase or 9% increase only big numbers but what republicans would highlight is this is less than the rate of inflation and the big change to medicaid, getting 12 million people retirement, where they may no longer have that, will change the calculation for a lot individuals in change the discretionary income which is something no one is talking about just yet. tom: thank you very much. wonderful brief. he is with raymond james. seriously trees rep -- legislation affects all of us in our retirement.

surveillance in london. thank you so much. that kingdom heathrow workers except pay offer and call off strike, according to bloomberg news and unite. i guess that is what happens. you wondered about the social aspect. i will say the telegraph the i think was in all of the british papers where the railroad strike leadership was starting to vacillate because of the fury of the british public over massive inconvenience. lisa a: i am looking right now at american airlines shares are up about 0.6% so i wonder how much this will actually fuel more optimism after a feeling. i will be here trying to come up with those puns. i am curious how much this will be. this is going to be important.

these are widespread strikes, whether they go beyond the throw workers and other -- the heathrow airport workers and other airports and other infrastructure in the u.k. remains to be in. tom: in america, what is interesting is the have a grizzled veteran in the -- on the secretary of labor. the former veteran marty walsh. the headline of heathrow is exactly where marty walsh has lived for decades. get it fixed. lisa a: and what they tried to avoid with the shipping yards in los angeles. tom: coming up, must listen, bramo with an equity overview. good morning. ♪

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>> good morning, everyone. we welcome all of you across a frozen america. the way this siberian front, it's called a bonsai clan? lisa: the speed, the acceleration of the temperature changing. tom: the pressure drops. lisa: it's like a bomb. tom: that is your weather report this morning. watching good morning pittsburgh from 40 degrees to now 20 that is in about two hours. it is amazing the wall of cold.

you can track it where you are as well. rob carolyn will be with me on radio at the 9:00 hour as we move forward. futures up, note last night 8:59 p.m. just before surveillance bedtime in email, we need to talk to someone about what matters so we are going to do that now. hired one of the best guys on the street his name is thomas's taurus and his notes are really something we are going to get to that in a moment but we have to do equity. can you top nike, fedex today? lisa: we will start with the story that keeps on giving. tesla shares are really little change this morning even as elon musk says he. selling the shares. they are up about 1.5 percent after seeing a pretty big

decline throughout the year. he is saying he won't sell stock until probably two years from now, definitely not your under any circumstances. he said this kind of thing before. we heard from dan ives on twitter about this saying this could put the lows in for the stock if it actually is the issue. tom: he brought the target down, i think the 175. he is enthusiastic and i thought given a menu of two dues from mr. mosk it's not like fixed sales in china this is, it is not a normal reaffirmed outperform. lisa: its stop with the politics, stop with the drama over at twitter and then oh yeah you have to deal with waning demand. i am also looking at amc. interesting to see those sales plunging at 9% after they did a 10 to one reverse stock split

with preferred equity. the ceo on twitter said the changes would stop investors from pushing amc towards penny stock territory not being deceived 12 currently. -- received well currently. the losses are continuing today and they dragged out a lot of the used car auto dealers as well. those shares down 1%. really interesting area, particularly with the macroeconomic read in terms of demand and who can buy and who cannot buy. tom: you educated me on this yesterday. and for the day before, whatever it was. carvana, carmax america can't afford new cars, right? lisa: america can afford new cars because people with money can afford and they can pay cash. the rest of america is struggling with 11% interest rates to borrow alone. tom: or higher. lisa: they have gone up so much

over the past couple of years. some people would say a bubble in the used car space. tom: we are going to digress here. i really can't talk to tom. a bear company and lisa this is your world and his column to me is shocking explain what he is saying. lisa: what he is saying is what a lot of people are saying. we could see rates have plateaued and come down but the credit aspect is at risk here. people are going to demand more because of the downturn how deep will that credit related pain be from your vantage point? >> really the truth is we are looking at a very shallow recession and very shallow credit contraction in 2023. the depth of that will be

determined in part by how high the fed funds rate goes and how long it takes to get to recession. the longer it takes to get to recession the mark consumers buildup credit card debt. the deeper the recession is going to be. right now we are looking at a fairly shallow recession. the spread is migrating only a few handle sire so may be 200 basis points on ig credit. lisa: how much do you see credit factor into this? we saw it expand massively over the last decade. there hasn't necessarily been a full repricing. there hasn't been forced sales, do you see a bomb cyclone in the credit situation next year as you do start to have people mark little bit more? >> it's difficult to say because the truth is we don't know the big? , how large is that market? we don't have a good idea and

the other? is we don't have a collapse in credit one borrowers are highly leveraged. unfortunately, we don't know how highly leveraged creditors are. even when banks had off balance sheet risks there was a notion how much leverage the banks had therefore the creditors. we really don't know how much leverage the creditors have today and we don't know the size of their books and truth. the best guess we have is when we look at the bank loan market. it tells us that there is some elevated risk there versus what we saw in 2008 and that sector should underperform the high-yield bond market. we have to suspect there is going to be an elevated amount of credit stress this cycle as well but probably not something that is going to elevate to the point of systemic risk. if we had to put this in hard numbers the high-yield bond market likes to see it widen out

to 700 basis points or higher. bank loans would not move that far. they would see less stress. this time they are likely to see more stress some more of that pain is likely to shift into private credit and high guilt one of the reasons we have an outlook on idol credit is we do think a lot of that stress is shifting to the private credit market. tom: there is like seven people in my universe that actually know with the standard blue bond bug is. -- book is. we looked for equity stocks, they follow a chip company. they were priced premium with the big coupon. they have gone one from 130 down to 70. if you have your spread widening that you are predicting is that

quality investment grade bond? and it go from 70 down to 60 or do? >> down to 60, very likely if we are talking another 50 basis points. let's assume a 10 year duration. what you are talking about is of substantial amount. we will call it a 5% loss. absolutely, that's within range and i do think that's a type of price behavior we are going to see. very likely to see further spread widening something around 50 to 70 basis points on average but you have to recognize it's going to be lower all in yields tom:. this tries me nuts, lisa. and i do this all the time. i take to an individual bond. he had the standard report that

his father had on his desk i can't remember, but the bottom line is the financial media does mumbo-jumbo spreads and all this and this is one of the guys that can take down the individual bond to peace. how about you have a bond at 130 and you are enjoying it this morning at 70. that's called a loss and he's saying you're going to get a greater loss. lisa: in certain components. i guess you could answer -- and find tom: someone sitting on their catch owns 45 bonds and they are looking at the individual pricing going really? lisa: one is linked to interest rates and one is linked to credit risk and we are looking at the one linked to interest rate. the one that is thinked to credit risk is going up. do these things offset themselves? do they offset each other and leave you with a positive return

in investment grade and high yield by the end of next or? >> and the investment rate space and think they will largely offset so 2020 two is the year of inflation and yields moved higher and there was really no way to hide from that. there is no way to say that -- offset that. 2023 is likely the year of recession and in a shallow recession you don't see a lot of spread widening and price decline in investment grade credit. we do believe it will be offset with lower all in yields. you should look at positive returns. high-yield is going to be a potentially different story. it's going to depend on the types of credit, industries, management. they are always four corners away from -- four quarters away from default. some of these names may get out of the recession alive so high-yield could see negative returns next year but we do expect to see positive returns. tom: thank you so much.

we have learned a lot. i really learned a lot there, but i do take issue that there is just so much relative fancy pants. he went to price down yield up is the reality of this year and with the spread widening we are talking about, what do bonds do next year if the spread widens out? i just don't see credit to the rescue. lisa: it's the difference between credit and government bonds. i think that's going to be a major differential next year especially some of the riskier credit sectors. there is a bigger idea here. this year, you tore up the book, and people who are sitting on the losses, you have pointed out

what do they do with the losses? do they consolidate by selling or pile more in? that's the psychological aspect we don't understand fully yet. tom: if i am a yield talk, it's a great screen, i'm done 37% in price it's like my austrian peace. look how well that worked out. lisa: tom: it's fantastic. i think we need to be simpler about our bond analysis. i'm just arguing with you because ferrero isn't here to argue with. stay warm out there, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world.

in china 37 million people may have been infected with covid-19 on a single day. top health authority some 240 million people over 18% of the population likely contracted the virus in the first 20 days of december according to china's national health commission. china's dismantling of zero covid restrictions made it the world's largest operate. two more days of strikes in january escalating industrial action in a bid to pressure the government to discuss demand for higher pay. the new strikes are set for january 11 and 23rd and involve more ambulance employees, not just the emergency room spots cruise who walked out wednesday. nurses have also walked out this month. a massive winter storm hitting a huge portion of the central u.s., thousands of flights are canceled. the national weather service says more than 200 million people are under some form of

winter weather warning or advisory wreaking havoc on travel plans just ahead of christmas. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomgerg by quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo, this is bloomberg.

>> china is going to have a pretty big activity over the next few months and that's going to be a big impact on the markets and a big impact on the region.

it will have implications for everything. tom: really informative view there on the atlantic dynamics and particularly history expertise on the euro as well. it seems to be at theme. i think lisa has been good at trying to keep me back on the china message but it is a domineering story away from the weather, away from what is going on in washington. it's not just covid it's just about the basic recovery and i don't hear anybody talking about the path of the recovery. there is no certitude of return to 5% because there is no belief for knowledge to penndot off of. lisa: there is a great story i was reading this morning about the change in language from before they rip the band-aid off to after, for they were calling covid the devil virus and now they say it's #the flu. they talk about warning about all sorts of transportation

problems and asymptomatic people being dangerous and now it's ok. if you are not that sick, you're good, don't worry about it. to move the country forward. tom: futures up seven right now, big economic data coming up in less than one hour. this is really important. he is hugely qualified, one of the most technical pairings the university of washington along with carnegie mellon joining us now and truly focused on the pacific rim. instead of me guessing give us your singular insight on pacific rim recovery next year. >> we anticipate strong recovery especially from the chinese demand for commodities. i would differentiate that from other types of goods because china, by far, would believe the

fiscal report -- support required to get to their gdp growth goal be significant and the number one spending out of that will be infrastructure spending and support from local governments to build up more properties and recover property market as well. tom: let's look at this from an engineering aspect, driving across the bridge in washington your studies in double and there is a great. it is the speed of movement, by that matter the rest of the pacific rim dynamic enough that we underestimate the speed of change that gets them back to normal. >> that's a very good point. i do believe right now the market is still being very overshadowed by the slowdown we anticipate to see. develop markets in particular with the u.s. and europe but

chinese spending can make significant difference for commodities in particular china has been the largest marginal buyer. so the fact we anticipate stronger infrastructure spending can make a significant difference in terms of growth rate, commodity. if economy does grow as fast as government predicts, even agriculture spending will go up. lisa: i don't envy you. this has been one of the most difficult years to call prices. we have seen that reflected in volatility so far. we expected oil prices to surge to $150 on the heels of the ukrainian conflict. we expected oil conflicts to search. neither has happened, how? how can you explain this? >> so we see that oil is driven

by supply and demand for price. the balance between supply and demand is important. the fact that opec-plus russia has cut supply and tried to manage the inventory the full we think it is encouraging for oil price going forward next year. at the same time, even with the u.s. spr relief and we think it is already started right now, u.s. government has to buy back the inventory for spr and that is additional deferred demand into this year that we believe will help. we do see a flaw into the second year. the most recent release of the forecast and a 2023 shows exit rate of more barrels per day

that's an increase of the previous estimate. we believe that is actually going to really help with demand. the question now will be can producing countries, can u.s. keep up with that production trust the end of the year? lisa: so what is your view? what is your call? >> the platform is calling for $100 per barrel by the end of 2023. tom: this was percolating i want to say eight months ago. we had this massive commodity deflation and there's people out there saying finally a swing in commodities whether it's industrial metals, this, that, the other thing. are you investing assuming a return to a commodity priced vector up? is that a court belief? >> it is and we believe it is largely driven by careful spending from the natural

resources producers. unlike previous cycle, even though we have seen very low rates incentive for companies leverage, what we have seen for the natural resource companies, mining companies, oil companies, have been going the other way. focused on payout, the cash flow. being digital -- diligent and not increase capacity any significant way. that continues to be the case. the companies still compete to be the best payout companies from a dividend are shared buyback perspective. so the cash flow part drives the long-term behavior as well. it will take a long time for any natural resources to get capacity to spend. we see that continue to propagate into 2023. lisa: are talking about crude but also natural gas. especially with china coming

back online and competing with europe more. demand should be much greater by the end of next year. what are you looking at in terms of the swing upward in price for natural gas and the potential issue for europe, winter 2023? >> it's much more difficult to call. it has been dramatic. we do anticipate, and it is very much whether driven. 2022 is a very different year compared to 2021. we think europe has been very lucky in 20 given that the drought and the western droughts and short of electricity on top of that china was in a contraction cycle. 2023 will be opposite. china has been very diligent about diversifying their sources

for natural gas so the pipelines with russia has been operating at a high efficiency, high-volume. that has helped china in terms of overall demand that helps the rest of the world as well. if we were to see the same weather in 23 as we did in 21, i think europe will have a much tougher time. for one thing, the russian oil will not be available. tom: thank you so much. i'm really glad we brought the sent the covid analysis it was -- bit overwhelms the economic analysis which is the fact china is flat on its back. lisa: it's difficult to get a read on what the shift will due to the economy because right now there's stasis.

people are sick, people are staying home. when does that change? you are asking that as people try to understand the science of it which is the critical mass of herd immunity. tom: it's unfair to say they are doing it without vaccine. i think there is a real mystery here. i remember at the beginning of the pandemic three differential equations by true experts of immunology in london, because they had the data. we don't have the data for china. we don't have that math. there's no way. lisa: it seems like it could be a potential factor that will be big. we have no gauge of it at this point. tom: futures up 9, 2 futures up 83. 132.70. we have important economic data in 32 minutes. michael mckee will be with us. bob diamond on his friend, scott minerd.

if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more.

>> folks are looking at maybe not the wrong data but inflation isn't going to be the issue in 2023. >>