dani: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak:

europe". i'm dani burger in london. these are the stories etc. agenda. caveat emptor, the fed warns investors against underestimating its result to tackle inflation. u.s. futures lit even as asian stocks slide for a for the. oil rebounds from its worst two-day slump since march. pl is tting over 18,000 jobs in its biggest workforce reduction ever in another sign the technology slump is deepening. there was a pushback against the fed. fed officials were worried about cuts this market is pricing in, despite that the rebound continues especially in asian equities this morning. hong kong and china stocks are higher. we had a piece of rally yesterday in european stocks. we have seen the biggest

three-day rally for the euro stoxx 50 since october last year. a solid start of the year. seeing some consolidation today as warnings abound over the state of the equity market. an analyst says the s&p is far too crowded, therefore you should get out. nasdaq futures are underperforming, with warnings from tech slashing workers. looking at the cross assets, oil is staging a rebound but has not been able to recoup losses, a 9% decline to start the year over concerns of china. but higher at the moment, nymex crude up nearly 1.5%. robert brooks at iff making a really good point that the bank of japan has spent ¥6.2 trillion defending their new upper bound

on the 10-year yield. each incremental move will be very expensive, and it will be unlikely they can do a slow exit from yield curve control. the 10-year yield was falling to start the year but is higher three basis points. australian 10-year yields, that really continues. and the last negative yielding piece of debt in the bloomberg index is now gone. currently, there are no negative yielding bonds. it reached a peak of $19 trillion, so it is certainly a new era. assuring that in his the fed tightening policy. we got minutes yesterday in the december meeting, and they delivered a blunt warning to investors. it affirmed their determination to do what it takes to bring down inflation. let's get to our senior economics reporter, michelle

jamrisko, really interesting that the fed was saying one of our big risks is that this market continues to losing conditions bipartisan cuts. -- by pricing cuts. >> that is not the message the markets wanted to hear. they wanted to hear more on their inflation views, what'd their forecast increase to 3.1% by the end of this year. what we got was that big warning to investors, don't fight the fed. don't allow financial conditions to get so easy, and don't underestimate their willpower to get inflation under control. a lot of what you saw in the minutes was emphasizing the conditions they have been seeing for a while. there was a more broad sentiment we were looking for, we were looking to see whether they agreed with powell on the labor market. they did say the labor market remains tight. prices remain stubbornly high. and they have looked at this

risk of over tightening, and that has faded. we predicted this yesterday out of our bloomberg, our chief economist said november in the minute saw a concern over the risk of over tightening. she predicted that would fade, and it has. according to jp morgan's economist, he said the fed needs to stomach that risk because stubbornly high inflation is the major focus point right now. that's exactly what we saw from the minutes, the same message the fed is hammering home, don't underestimate our will to end this inflation fight. dani: speaking of stubborn inflation, neel kashkari had that essay post on medium yesterday, he compared it to search pricing. michelle: really interesting, kashkari is someone we knew as that uber dove who has

become a hawk, so important to read these in context. he will be a voter for minneapolis. but he makes that very relatable analogy. he issues a mea culpa, and talks about inflation being underestimated by the fed, and apologizes but talks about this different brand of inflation. in his analogy, he says high prices last year were like getting an uber in a rain storm. i don't want to use the term transitory event too loosely, but it is one prices surge until you get demand down and supply back in line with demand. he is conveying this message of trust in the fed. to me, it is the same message that came out of the minutes, don't underestimate the fed. they know they underestimated

inflation, and they have all eyes on that inflation going forward ready to fight it. dani: if you wanted to take the metaphor further, you could say the tightness in the liver market equates to not enough drivers, so prices will go up forever. dangerous metaphor. michelle jamrisko in singapore. the house remains at a historic impasse with republican kevin mccarthy failing to garner support to become speaker after six rounds of voting. the majority leader was unable to convince dissenters from his party to back him. extending gridlock on capitol hill for a second day. joining us now from washington, d.c. is bloomberg's john hardy, we have never seen anything like this in our lifetimes except people who are perhaps more than a century-old. what does this mean for the republican party, and more

broadly, for jeezy politics to function -- d.c. politics to function? >> it shows there are deep risks within the party itself. and they have been pestering for some time. and there are grievances, these dissidents, rebels, however you want to characterize them seemed especially angry that they have been ignored by house leadership. you saw something similar in democratic ranks when democrats took control of the house among younger, more leftist members. but that was less pronounced and was handled definitely by nancy pelosi. what it means going forward is at least for now, dysfunction.

dani: john, thanks for staying up late in d.c. amazon says it is laying off more than 18,000 employees, significantly larger than previously planned. it is a sign that the technology slump is deepening, we also had salesforce cuts announced yesterday as well. we are joined by our tech editor, mayumi, what is the timeline for these cuts? and what is the driving factor behind it? >> the timeline is unknown. the cuts will come this year. it was a shock to see the new numbers because just a little over a month ago they had given 10,000 cut, now we are

seeing 70 percent increase. it shows how -- what's behind it? it just shows the whiplash the technology industry has been going through because people are spending less time online. the companies had ramped up and hired so many people to deal with increased demand from retailers and all of a sudden we are back at work, and not online anymore. it was a bit of a shock to see these numbers. dani: all of our amazon bills have gone down significantly, i would say. it is not just the amazons of the world and the work from home companies that are having to change, we also had that salesforce announcement that they will also lay off folks. what was the impetus? >> the entire tech industry has

been dealing with a sudden fall in demand. we've been expecting a slight boost in december from the year end holiday season but that did not pan out. that has caused firms from iphone, apple, tesla to take a second look at the outlook and revise their numbers. dani: we also heard from mike wilson of morgan stanley saying tech companies need to step it up, and are typically slow to cut costs. our tech editor with the latest on amazon and salesforce. let's take a look at key things we are watching out for today. some 40 5 a.m. this morning u.k. time we will get inflation area for december. the whole area shall the same

thing. later at 10:00 a.m., we will get italian inflation numbers for december. all of this has been driving yields lower across the european space. then at 1:30 p.m. here in the u.k. it will be u.s. initial jobless claims data. the u.k. labour party leader keir starmer is scheduled to give his first speech of the year setting his priorities for 202030. rishi sunak will be talking with our very own lizzy burden about that. fed officials have warned markets not to underestimate their will to keep policy type for some time. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we're going to get a nasty earnings recession. the companies that can deliver on cost efficiency will continue to perform until you fully priced whatever the downturn of earnings will be. dani: morgan stanley's chief u.s. strategist sounding pessimistic about the economy and s&p 500. u.s. stocks managed to snap a two-day losing streak overnight. they did pare gains after fomc

minutes warned of an unwarranted loosening of conditions. but ended the day in the green. joining us now is aneeka gupta, director of research at wisdomtree. what are your expectations for earnings season? there seems to be building gloom for some time, our expectations finally correct? aneeka: morning, dani, a letter to join you this morning -- pleasure to join you this morning. we will see contraction in earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022. what we've been noticing is some of the key sectors that could offer results is mostly in value-oriented sectors, like banks, utilities, industrials and energy. energy has been paving the way

and have been doing so right across 2022. dani: if that's the case, where would be be insulated from it? tech companies like salesforce are slashing jobs, are there companies that are better prepared for this downturn? aneeka: we're seeing most of that strength in the defensive sectors. the more "boring" sectors investors don't really want to go to are likely to provide that installation. it is well-telegraphed that at different stages of this year, u.s., europe and u.k. will be entering recession. in that regard, psycho whole -- cyclicals are likely to suffer a lot more than defensive. positioning in defensive sectors will be a more prudent move.

dani: i read this argument overnight that is interesting, it is from the economist's campbell harvey, basically arguing that the yield curve as a predictive force for a recession, it has lost it more or less because everybody knows it so well. when recession is broadcasted, you have both consumers and corporates changing their behavior in order to shield themselves. maybe this relates to tech companies that have started to slash jobs, because this has been so well broadcast are we better prepared and therefore it will be a mild recession? aneeka: this time around, the yield curve is a very good indicator. i would still rely on it as a good indicator. it is correctly showing signs that the u.s., europe and the

u.k. are entering a recession. what is unique about this recession is it is being backed by a strong services sector. how do will that recession be? how quickly will inflation fall, yet remain sticky on the upside? and finally, will we get a permanent solution to the energy crisis europe has been facing? obviously, answering that question makes you wonder if the yield curve is analyzing this accurately. i think it still is. the only problem this time around as you have a much stronger labor market, you have additional stimulus being pumped into the economy owing to the covid crisis. and we've only seen half of that being run down. we still have another half to go. that is what could still bolster

these recessionary fears and support the economy going forward, which is why economists are saying we are likely to see recession but it is not likely to be as intense. take for example, europe, as we were entering year end 2022, the expectation was for an extreme recession. but what we've actually seen is they have adjusted very well to rationing of energy demand. they have also filled up supplies. we have had a turnaround in wind generation for power. looking at the outflow for eu improving versus what we were contemplating a month back. dani: it's been mild and blustery in london, not a fun time but great for renewable

energy generation. what is the risk that should the weather turned, the economic picture turns for europe? so much of these economic predictions have hinged on mild weather and less energy consumption. aneeka: 1.i would highlight in the inflation picture is we have seen headline numbers decrease, and if you consolidate the numbers from germany and france, we could see inflation now averaging around 9.9% versus the 10% we saw in november. the important thing to keep in mind is core inflation has still edged higher. that comes back to my point, you are still seeing resilience in services, which is driving inflation. which is why the ecb is not likely to hold off on raising rates. we're likely to see another 250 basis points of rate hikes continuing in february and march.

dani: you and the team at wisdomtree are pioneers, for things like value, that tend to underperform at a downturn in the economy, do you expect that to happen this time around? or do things like energy stocks help buoy that type of strategy? aneeka: 2022 was the year of multi-vector investing. -- multi-factor investing. any investor tracking these would have made a killing. central banks will continue their hawkish rhetoric. that will be supportive for dividend and value factors. but in the second half, we will see that change in tone. we could see more intensification in recession, and henceforth, you will see central banks changing course.

we have seen that being priced in bond markets. i would say slowdown to those value and dividend strategies. as we see china reopening and central banks hold off on this hawkish rhetoric, we start to see more of a risk on environment by year end. dani: when you read the fed minutes from yesterday, and they say they are concerned the market is pricing cuts, do you say, no, they will indeed be taking a dovish turn at some point next year? aneeka: it is too early to make a hall. they will be very data-dependent and rightly so. for the first half, they will need to maintain a hawkish stance. as we progress into the second half, the data will start to deteriorate. as that takes place, right now

they are zoning in on financial conditions loosening, which is the opposite of what they are trying to get to. as long as that keep happening, a keeps the fed more hawkish. i think that will start changing towards the second half, that is one central banks will take a more dovish stance. i believe what they are saying for now. the market is going for a pivot much earlier and i don't think that is likely given the data so far. dani: aneeka, always a pleasure to catch up. aneeka gupta, director of research at wisdomtree. the china-hong kong border is set to reopen starting this weekend. more on that in your round up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: let's check in on the first word headlines from around the world. the u.s. house voted to adjourn again after republican leader kevin mccarthy failed for the sixth time to be elected speaker. the vote fell largely along party lines. a later meeting failed to bring the two republican sides together. china is gradually reopening is border with hong kong starting from this sunday. the border has effectively shut since early 2020 as both places pursued a covid zero policy. china will require a negative pcr tests result or arrivals from the city. blackrock has suspended withdrawal requests from its u.k. property fund. bloomberg has learned the world's largest asset manager told clients that it will defer redemption requests due around

now. the move highlights the sector's ongoing challenges while markets are volatile. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. heading to break, i want to leave you with this. we have seen the end of an era. all negative yield in debt has now disappeared. at one point it reached 19 thousand dollars on the index, it is now zero. coming up, we had to ces las coming up, we had to ces las ve202 pounds on golo. jason andt so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my ysician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change.

so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works.

>> this is bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are the stories that set your agenda. the fed warns investors against underestimating its resolve to keep rates high to tackle inflation. asia stocks rise for a fifth day. oil rebalance from its worst today slump -- two day slump as worries linger from china. amazon cuts jobs in another sign the technology slump is deepening. to the defensive sectors, that is what vanita gupta was talking to us about -- this is going to be the year of two halves. continued hawkishness from the fed and then economic deterioration. at the moment it is buy buy buy especially when it comes to chinese stocks. chinese equities heading higher by 2% now. you are looking at some weakness in american and european futures but this is off the back of

three days of gains. the best three days for european stocks since october. a good start to the year but how much can you read into it? liquidity continues to be thin. nasdaq futures underperforming ever so slightly versus the main benchmark. amazon is cutting 18,000 jobs, sales force is reducing 10% of its workforce. the tech sector is gearing up for tougher times ahead. oil continues to chart higher. this is another asset were liquidity has been especially thin. we are seeing choppiness in this market. today it is to the upside. nymex crude just under $74 a barrel. the yen continues to strengthen. the bank of japan will start to tighten policy. 10 year yields saw the best start to the year since 2001. they are coming up. yields are up three basis points for 3.71%.

the 10 year yield in australia continues to move lower by seven basis points. australia is so tied to china. we have seen stocks rally but perhaps the bid for bonds in australia indicates a little bit of pessimism. let's talk about the auto story. bmw has unveiled its i vision d concept car. zero buttons and switches for drivers. a super sleek interior where the windshield acts as a giant voice control display. the future is clearly here. ed ludlow was at ces where he spoke to bmw's chief executive. >> we think the future of a car company, that is specifically trooper bmw, will be decided in the field of digitalization. merging hardware with artificial intelligence, merging real driving experience with virtual reality. that is the future of a car

company. we showcased it here today at ces. the future is how we merge these fields. >> what is behind this is bmw i vision d. not a concept car but kind of a concept car. no buttons, it is about integrated augmented reality. you have promised that some of those features will be in production cars by 2025. you like your predecessors oversaw manufacturing in this company. how do you make that happen? how do you make the futuristic become a production product? >> as a production guy you are always a product guy. therefore realization of what we think of, to put that into production is the core of the company. that is why we trust ourselves to say parts of that, what we showed here, will be in production in two years time

when we launch our full electric with a new version of head up display. we started 20 years ago with the first version of the head up display. bring it right into the car. we will take that to the next level and you saw a glimmer's of that today. -- a glimpse of that today. >> how many euros is it going to cost bmw? how much investment, how much capital, to bring in the next generation? >> it's the biggest single investment into one architecture bmw has ever undertaken. it will be. produced in every part of the world where we have plants. by 2030 we will make up 50% of all our cars will be fully electric. >> ces this year is a lot about talent. you seem to be selling bmw to talent, software engineering.

how aggressive are you going to have to be in hiring software engineers, artificial intelligence engineers? >> we are an attractive company to all kinds of talent. car developers, software coders. we are not only based in germany . we are based in the united states with a large r&d group. we are based in portugal, in south africa, in china. we are attracting talent on a worldwide basis. bmw is growing by attracting talent to develop and produce these cars. dani: ed ludlow at the consumer electronics show in las vegas. also at ces in vegas is the lead equity analyst for european autos at rbc capital markets. he joins us now. staying up late for us out in vegas. ed ludlow was just talking to the bmw executive there who

unveiled the shiny new concept car. no buttons, which freaks me out a little bit. we are headed for a tough economic cycle. are you seeing at ces at all this desire to pull back on the flashing us, on the super spending you might get at this electronics show? >> not at all. it is really the opposite. you really see a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of confidence in tech. this has turned into an auto show more than a consumer electronics show. there has been a lot of talking into ces about things like autonomous vehicle development may be slowing down because of -- pulling out. but really have not heard that at all, a lot of confidence, a lot of optimism on what lies ahead for the automotive industry. dani: is that optimism

misplaced? >> i don't think so. ces is really very long-term forward-looking. i am a firm believer in robotech sees being the future. -- robotaxis being the future. there is a lot of optimism on what these technologies could grant us in the future. obviously there's a lot of obstacles to get there. but more than anything, you will always find at these types of shows very forward thinking optimism, understanding pitfalls near-term and investment needs, but the other thing, the auto industry, especially legacy oem 's like bmw can capture revenue from added services like the one he was talking about and things

-- it does not have to be robotaxis. it can be level two, level 3, where a car company can become a tech company, not just a box on wheels. dani: let me tell you a secret. i have been living in the u.k. for five years and i have yet to get my drivers license. i have an american one. i would be more than happy to have a robo taxi drive me around. not the point. that is the future for these automakers, but what about the here and now? we saw tesla for the third time miss deliveries. is that a tesla specific story or something the wider auto industry, the wider ev industry even is having to deal with right now in terms of a demand crunch? >> i don't really think we are seeing a demand crunch per se. i think that is specific to tesla.

your prior speaker you had talked about two halves in 2023. i would agree the same for auto. auto sales have been depressed for three years. usually it is 90 million cars sold per year. the last time we saw that was 2019. it has been the 75 to 80 million range the past couple years. there is a lot of pent-up demand for cars. most people still have drivers licenses. i do think pent up demand is going to support 2023. the question does remain, what happens in h2? there will be economic slowdown. it probably will be global, first and foremost in europe. definitely we see problems in china as well. dani: you are just making me feel more guilty about not having my drivers license yet. ok.

a story of two halves. how are you thinking about the swing factor of china reopening playing into the story of 2023? >> there has been a lot of attention given to that. we are not out of the woods in china even with reopening. there are a lot of tier one suppliers that service the domestic market in china. because of covid lockdowns, it has delayed a lot of the production. they have had to source parts from overseas. it has created a chain reaction. even though things may be opening up, we still have a lot of delays just in deliveries. a lot of parts having flown over, which is very expensive, it's not the end of the world, but we are not out of the woods yet even though -- even with china opening up. dani: i guess nearly three years

of a pandemic, presumably these manufacturers have started to change their supply chains. who would you say in europe is most able to continue to weather the storm? are there any corporates who are well-positioned to handle these sort of crunches and readjust when china does come back? >> you kind of want to obviously be able to get companies that are the most vertically integrated in this type of environment and locally sourced. the one that stands to mind for me the most is volkswagen in europe. a lot of the supply chain issues in the future will be batteries. a lot of that is produced in asia. volkswagen is a pioneer in trying to be as vertically integrated as possible. more so than others. also with software, they have

their carryout division which presents tomorrow at ces. they are trying to do a lot of this in house and that helps resolve supply chain issues. the more you are dependent on others, the more vulnerable you are to supply chain disruptions. dani: looking at a one-year picture of autos, vw is down 43%. are you expecting a big rally to recover that this year? >> a lot of that has to do with some technical trading dynamics with the porsche ipo. a number of vw investors actually sold shares of vw so they could buy the porsche ipo. i do believe that stock -- it is really undervalued. obviously there is the sum of the parts story. it has not gotten credit for the value of porsche and the ipo.

investors might take a closer look. that said, the concern has to do with what's happening with them in china. competition is intensifying. that is their biggest market. ev's, they have had some stumbles. some is related to semi. some is related to their offering. if they can fix that in china, i think folks will take a closer look. dani: thank you for staying up late for us, though i feel like 10:41 in vegas is not late in vegas time. now coming up, in his first big speech of the year, prime minister rishi sunak sets out five priorities for the u.k. economy. we are going to get the details with lizzy burden next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> everybody in the u.k. will be glad to see it back in 2022. >> i see this year as having brought back into focus -- a lot of obstacles that have been there for a very long time. >> we have seen an increase in the amount of attacks in the energy sector. 13 times more of that nature. >> we have seen valuations come down. >> the worry is that we want to address the question. i do worry the brexit issue is much more than a one-off shock. >> there is so much negativity about 2023. it is quite possible to get more positive surprises than negative surprises for the u.k..

>> usually in difficult times, that is when entrepreneurs thrive. dani: prominent investors speaking to me on the u.k. outlook and what opportunities and risks may lay ahead. now, we also heard from u.k. prime minister rishi sunak yesterday. he used his first big speech of the year to make five promises he said his government could be judged on. opposition leader kier starmer will set out the case for change amid the country's soaring cost of living and stagnant economy. let's bring in lizzy burden. what did rishi sunak layout in terms of his promises and pledges? do they meet the moment? >> he has promised no tricks, no ambiguity. he said he is not promising anything he can't deliver on. really trying to deliver it -- distinguish himself from his predecessors. he realized they are either vague, they would have happened

anyway, or they are not new. in terms of having inflation, glowing the economy -- halving inflation, growing the economy, these things were going to happen. the responsibility for cutting inflation lies with the bank of england. if prices rocket again, sunak is going to be able to say it is out of his control. there's also very little detail on how he's going to cut nhs waiting lists, cut the national debt. we don't know when he aims to do that by. and passing a law on small boats carrying illegal immigrants is literally what lawmakers are there to do. it's the simplest pledge at politician could make. labor's response has been, is this it? even some of his own backbenchers including the former cabinet minister under boris johnson have sniffed at this. she said this is three years of

progressive tory policy washed down the drain. dani: we get the chance this morning to hear a direct response from care starmer. what are we expecting? >> his speech was planned for today anyway and sunak moved his up to get ahead yesterday. remember, sunak has already been optimistic. he has laid out a five-point plan reminiscent of tony blair's five-point plan ahead of the 97 election. we know starmer is being lectured by the former prime minister. his diagnosis of the problems is what posters say britain's care about. the economy and the national health service. starmer is expected to put the private sector at the heart of his vision to, quote, have a decade of national renewal. this prawn cocktail offensive, trying to woo the business community is expected to continue. he's expected to say a labor government will not be able to spend its way out of this mess.

like sunak trying to put water between himself and his predecessor. in starmer's case, jeremy corbyn and his economics. i also expect starmer is going to say the elephant in the room are the strikes that are paralyzing the transport network, clogging up the emergency boards and that sunak's solution is not reminiscent. if starmer is not going to put inflation boosting pay rises on the table himself, it is maybe not enough for a lot of people. dani: prawn cocktails and all. lizzy burden, r u.k. reporter. coming up, equity investments in 2023 already weighed down to the economic outlook. -- weighed down by the global economic outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: let's take a look at the key things we are going to be watching out for. at 10:00 am u.k. time we are going to get inflation data from november -- from december. we will also have italian numbers. those numbers will be closely watched. germany, france, and spain all had inflation unexpectedly slowing last month. 1:30 u.k. time we are going to get u.s. initial jobless claims. later, here starmer is scheduled -- kier starmer is scheduled to give his speech laying out priorities for 2023. after the worst year for equities since 2008, the average wall street estimates he is again on the s&p 46% this year. there are bigger bears in the mist. savita subramanian at merrill

lynch says the s&p 500 is not that safe. michael kantrowitz says -- it is not all gloom and doom though. byron wien says there will not be anything worse than a mild recession. he thinks the market would reach a bottom by midyear and begin to -- excuse me. then recover, comparable to 2009. what does our bloomberg intelligence team think? joining us now is tim craighead. last year it was all about falling valuations. then we had surprisingly good earnings. how is it going to play out this year? >> if i had to pick one of your reference points i would be more in byron wien's perspective.

where earnings lost last year to compressing valuations, i think from here, valuations have pretty much done their thing. they fell in anticipation of poor earnings that did start to come through, at the very end of the year. and they fell obviously because interest rates went up. as we look into 2023, we see earnings risk. the upcoming fourth quarter earnings reporting period and the first half of the year, we could be in a period of negative revision for a while. but valuations have compressed enough now with europe still at 12.2 times earnings, it is two standard deviations below normal. if central banks pivot in midyear, that can allow us to have an interest rate driven uplift in valuation. overall higher at the end of the year than we were down for the index. dani: i want to ask about the ftse, about u.k. stocks. they outperformed last year. what about this year?

>> they outperformed in 2022 by standing still. they were flat while everything else got trashed. this year we see conflicting drivers keeping the ftse probably flatish. currency goes from a tailwind to a headwind. but the rest of europe has leverage to a chinese reopening, recovery, etc.. that is what we need for the second half of the year. dani: that is tim craighead from our bloomberg intelligence team. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: welcome to "b