>> we are seeing a strong job market. >> this is driving up employment to slow down the economy to generate slack and labor market. >> slower and slower non-foreign payrolls, and it is important not to get distracted by the way in the tech sector. next it is industry, and that is a difficult labor market. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> new rule. in the new year, payroll should come out on the second friday of the month. it doesn't feel right. >> you want to be depressed?

someone on twitter goes with more talk of debt default then several hours of silver place. >> you and i do not exist. we will catch up in 20 minutes. we will run through the default. life, good morning. it is payroll friday with something like 202,000. that is a median estimate in the survey here at bloomberg. the firm looks for 250,000 in the month. >> will do this differently. three this right is here with a fixed income angle, and we will look at the wage dynamics. it is a wage number that we will see at 8:30 a.m.. >> a consensus in the job market, that has been the place to be over the last eight or nine months. >> here is the issue. what do you do with a payroll

report? what do you do with the blockbuster number? you buy stock or sell bonds? how do you respond at a time when the fed will look at this is a green light to go hard against inflation and create some real pressure? >> you would expect the equity markets stocks to be down. that's what you would expect. what would you expect the end of the day? i have no idea which mark especially people are looking past these numbers? it is near the edges and you can see disinflation elsewhere. it is going to create profits for the company's that are better than expected. >> you look to listen to jonathan ferro, and i think we will get some color from that, but the other thing you listen to michael mckee who goes beneath the headline data and is not just about 20 two or the unemployment rate or six other numbers. there is some real nuance under there that can show which part of the economy is moving in which way. that's what i will do. >> it depends where you look. industry to industry is a very

different story. tech and what is happening with tech jobs hasn't spoken to labor market that we've had for most of the week. equity futures on the s&p 500 are totally unchanged on the session. the s&p is down on the week for a fifth consecutive week. we will see if we can change that a little later this morning. >> this is under this 11 ratio. good morning to our team who invented this on bloomberg financial conditions from moments ago. but we are moving to a new accommodation, and we are buttressed right up against more accommodations, and away from restrictive joy in jobs that we are seeing in the data we seen the last number of days. it is pushing against where chairman powell wants to be. >> is this a challenge? >> absolutely. i do agree with the gloom crew that you need restriction. you know what they are same. higher rates, and the market is pushing against bill dudley, you know them better than i do. you keep track of this, and the answer is a restrictive crew is

looking for help right now. >> which is it. all flood or full kashkari? >> does it matter? you ever read those children's books, choose your own adventure, we could choose which we want to go and then turn the page to a particular outcome? that is where we are embarking in 2023. the inventors i am looking at our going to be the wages once. payroll reports are coming out with wages coming and hotter than expected. that is a sense of the strength of this labor market, more than the headline number. at 10 a.m., the other side of the story. the services sector. has been the strongest and the driver of the inflation. we have looked at the service index for the month of december. does it continue to go down the way we saw it with the durable goods in the manufacturing and the ism we saw earlier, or doesn't come in hotter than expect it to show what the fed's talking about, which is resilience in the economy. if you are looking for some fed

speak, we are going to get it with a number of people. of you people. lisa cook, tom parkin, astrid -- esther george, as well as a host of others. ben bernanke, the former fed chair, as well as chief economist of the ecb. do they all go full kashkari? is there a difference between bullard or kashkari or is this the same story that wants to raise rates from 5% or north of that. they want to keep it there for a long time? >> you have to stop saying that. >> are you banning this? >> many times. we're joined now with the global head of strategy. a fantastic wonderful day to hear from you as always, and happy new year. we want to talk to you about the yield curve. i want to set the stage with the estimate of 350,000. a buff consensus. why is that? >> the high-frequency numbers we

are tracking, they are very strong. the seasonals interview will add 250,000 to the number, so it is a lot of talk around less high intention layoffs. the overall frequency data for the labor market is still very strong. i think businesses are holding labor. it is much more of an indicator because we are going into a slow down. it is a tight labor market. it is probably not going to look at a high-frequency number. it is revenge spending and services. it is starring to moderate on the payroll report today. >> we want to go back to your homerun run call on curve inversions where we celebrated with a great terminal ray. we were here on december 15. how is the inversion the re-inversion of 75.

how is that different from 79 only 21 days ago? >> i'm glad you brought that up. i think there is a big difference. the difference we saw in november into december was more of a recession fair. the market became extremely pessimistic about the growth prospects in the near-term. the growth rate over the last month is still strong. we expect another pretty strong payroll report. the inversion for more recently, is a global rate driven inversion, and if you look at what is happening, there is a bullish move. it is sort of optimism around the inflation wheel, and i think the inflation has been optimistic about global peaking, but how does it decline? that is a persistency, and is serviced driven. it is hard to see how we get there this year. i think the market may be a little misplaced, but the fed is serious. it is not a reaction function.

the market understands that data remain strong. they have to keep going, so the inversion might actually move a little more. we might get to -70 54 -80 as the terminal rate pricing goes up. by the time the fed is done, they will have to raise rates by the middle of the air. maybe even higher. no one is talking about higher. what if inflation doesn't decline. what if the rate inflation stays high? you have a slower pace and they go 25, but you have to keep hiking, and that will present that from steeping. they keep moving higher, but the long and is a longer-term issue. it is a broad slowing down as the market is slowing down later in the year. that is why think the inversion will have to get used to an inverted curve. >> it's pretty shocking. it's pretty significantly calling.

5.5%, & -- and perhaps potential just because of how much strength there is, which goes in the face of what the fed is saying, which is they are raising rates to a certain level, and they hold their to digest what the effect will be. why do you push back against that and say they are going to look the crash this economy which is really the scenario you're talking about. >> i think this comes round to the economic data. i the view is that things don't slow down until the third quarter. there is still a savings buffer. you look at consumer spending. it is very strong. the labor market is strong and businesses are holding labor. it is just going to take a while for the cracks to show up. maybe they are showing up, but an aggregate basis with the unemployment rate at 3.7, the fed, which i thought was stunning in their forecast and december, it would rise to 4.6. that is the tolerance fan. they need the unemployment rate to go up, so that will require

multiple negative payroll numbers. we think we are far from that, so the fed to come our view, it is five .25. really, it comes down to timing. if they're going to hike, with 50 in february, they are going to downshift to 25. what do they do in may? we think other 25 june. is that enough in the economic data to make them stop? or do they go another 25? that is the argument for going above it they can get there, stay there, and it is also ongoing which i think matters a lot. the real rates are high. i do think the economy is going to slow down. we are calling for a recession and the third quarter, but with inflation high, wages high, it will struggle to respond in the pricing of these basis points of cuts. by the end of the air, that is too much. the fed will be late.

they will be forced to sit tight at wherever the and up. until they see signs that the labor market has cracked an outfit and the on a plate rate is under 4.6, for them to start to cut rates. >> this was fascinating. what an outlook over a td. td security. happy new year as always. happy new year to everyone who to listen to that. 550 on fed funds, curve inversion all year, and recession may be the backend and the fed is unable to respond to it in the way that labor market data really cracks. >> this is really important to folks who have heard from td security, this is on the x

access and the time function. the curve inversion for the entire year dovetailed out with deborah cunningham. not on the sell side but on the buy side. in pittsburgh, that they are dovetailing the curves with the wind of it out of the x access across the essence of the

argument that was made. it was not a rally at the front end of the curve. you're not going to get a state in its that comes from the bull steam where the fed cuts interest rates. that is the argument she's making. curve inversion for the rest of the year. you're not going to get bailed out with rate cuts. >> i could dig into this for the rest of the show. equity is unchanged. one hour and 20 minutes away for payroll support in america. >> keep you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i am lisa mateo. the u.s. jobs report will determine whether -- what the federal reserve does next. estimates are that there are fewer jobs than last month, that indicates a cooling labor market. that will reduce rate hikes, but the data released thursday shows the job market is still resilient. inflation the euros earned -- eurozone has returned single digits for the first time since august. that is fueling hope that the blocks worse consumer prices have peaked. prices were up 9.2% from a year ago. slower growth in energy costs was a big reason. republicans are making history on capitol hill. dissidents have blocked kevin mccarthy from becoming a speaker the house on 11 different ballots. that is a post civil war record. the standoff has left republicans fractured after they reclaim the majority. mccarthy has offered concessions but has not been able to get enough votes. the clock is darted on vladimir putin's 36 hour cease-fire in ukraine for the russian orthodox christian holiday. the ukraine has dismissed the troop's -- is a ploy. the bid from moscow was a break in fighting to step up the war. holiday travel meltdowns have

forced southwest airlines to revise their travel outlook. they cancel 16,000 flights over the last 11 days of the year. southwest estimates are that it caused -- cost up to forger $25 million in lost revenue. they report a net loss for the fourth quarter. we'll news, 24 hours a day, on bloomberg quick take and on air, powered by 2700 journalists more than 120 countries. i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg.

>> i found it interesting that he was ready to bomb hospitals and nurseries and churches and with the 25th, the new year's, i think he is trying to find some oxygen. >> the president of the united states on russia. we will continue that story and amendment -- in a minute. looking for something in and around 200,000 for payroll job numbers. new market action looks like this on the s&p 500. the future is totally unchanged. the yield is up by a basis point on the 10 year. euro-dollar following eurozone cpi a little earlier.

headlines covered in softer but core is still a problem for the european central bank. a break of 104 .92. a third of 1%. >> rounded up to 106. it's an interesting trend with the jobs report. i don't want to underplay. >> i don't either. >> i'm riveted on the bloomberg initial conditions. you can look at the conditions if you want, but there are -- they are -- let's do this. we are going to attend kevin mccarthy doesn't exist. we are overwhelmed by this story. it is, for those international, there is no other story in america. let's pretend there is. the warm weather of europe shows that there is a cease-fire by one side in the war. let me go to the basics. do we have any reporting that the ukraine will honor the cease-fire? >> zero. they've said that publicly.

based -- they've viewed this as a ploy and a sham. president said coming into the program, russia has struck ukraine during the western christmas day during new year's, which is eastern european, and russian culture. it is incredibly important in the holiday to celebrate. why would he stop now? largely, everyone views that is breathing room, and really, you have to caution, we've been saying this for years now. you have to be able to look at what putin is saying and what he does. for the ukrainians, there is no point to abide by the cease-fire, and give russians the room they need to move around with the military and ammunition. they come on strike on that. they don't want to give any inch. >> it is an unfair question, but you are good at this. this site guist is ukraine is winning the war. president biden, the secretary of defense, do they think

ukraine is winning the war? >> they have not come out to publicly say those words, but they've said they will continue to support ukraine until the very end. the fact of the matter is, ukraine is able to get back 40% of the land that russia was striking very early on, and at this moment on the past prior month, what you have seen is the ukrainians pushing back on russia. in that sense, when you look at this picture, it does look like ukraine is in the lead in terms of winning this war. this is why you have, which is a testament to prudent, testament that the west is going to band together. they called it light tags for friends, but really, heavy duty infantry tanks are coming from germany to the united states. the numbers are almost 100, and another patriot missile battery coming from germany. they want to make sure the ukraine can keep the sub.

>> i want to talk about that. the contribution shows the chancellor being criticized over the last year over a lack of contribution from germany to the war effort. how much of a change was that? >> this is a huge change. it is not as many as the bradleys that the united states have been sending over, but still, it's a directional change. especially the patriot missile. think about this. the united states has only sent one, they've decided that last month. now, you have germany falling on the heels of the u.s. decision. also, this is something they've been asking for. they have not talked about the armored materials, the tanks that the russians have. we need to be able to close the skies. with the patriot missile battery, they are closer to doing that. >> on much is this making good on a pledge to reach that 2% threshold of gdp to reach nato on spending for the military? how much is this ramping up rapidly with germany to fulfill a pledge for the first time in

decades? >> it is certainly that. that is exactly the point. decades have fallen far away from the 2% target in germany for years. what we're hearing from nato, and what we talked about, is that nato may just change this all to not being a 2% aim, but a

2% minimum for a nato alliance country, you have to be able to spend on a defense budget, what germany is doing is potentially getting out of that, but as they said, there is a lot of criticism, and at this moment, they are coming to the ukrainians help. >> we have to go. we have a wonderful listener on twitter who is very polite and said can she talk about the debt default silver plates. so let's go there. right now, alexandra harris writes for bloomberg. are you kidding me? we really have to talk about a debt default now? >> people are concerned in the market doesn't seem to be concerned at all, they are shrugging off the theater that is going on on the house floor, book blur concerned that if kevin mccarthy is unable to pin his own party to vote for the basic, largely ceremonial, his speakership, how is he going to get these individuals to vote the lift the debt ceiling? this is why so many people are saying it should've been done in the lame-duck session, but obviously, democrats in the house and senate side didn't go on board with it, and this is setting up a huge fight. we are straining hear whispers of it now, and especially in the circles, the individuals we speak to, wait until the early summer. if this becomes an issue, this is really going to start, i think, to freak out individuals on wall street. >> john alexander harris is a dropdead date of late summer. >> is that coinciding with jackson hole? >> that's very good. that would be good. >> full coverage.

>> will have the institution. >> is hard to look out and discount and think about it. >> you just set me up. >> i'm interested in your thoughts. >> i was thinking about why markets are not responding to the potential for a debt default since that seems to be imminently where the house is going. the house of representatives. it always gets fixed. you say who cares at this point, but this is the issue. this is the issue. this is ralph dysfunction in washington dc. we have seen this in 2011. at a serious effect on markets. what is going to stop us from getting back to that point, considering this doesn't set a good precedent? >> every time we do this, we buy treasuries. is there going to change anytime

soon? >> that is the real question. what is the application for the markets? it is a haven trade and sell stocks. does that equation change now that inflation has a concern in the fed monetary policy is in a different kind of tool to offset any potential disruption? does that change the narrative? that's a great question. you could say it's a debt default. >> i want to take you to 1862. the 1933. >> what can we learn back then? what we learn that mccarthy could be speaker. who knows? i have to go back and watch lincoln this week. >> let's look at the jobs number instead of what's going to happen there. next we have to stay focused 26 minutes away. >> we have no idea what that looks like. we will be joined to talk about that. >> you need direct that up. >> we appreciate that. goodbye. >> that's the sound of music or something. >> that's when he ends the conversation. >> goodbye. >> that's what he does. see songs. >> is strange. when you look it up. >> the phone starts singing disney songs. they never understand. >> he is going to go climb every

mountain. >> he's going to sing. >> can we talk about tom coming up next? >> above consensus calls on payrolls. we'll have to bring that down. some of the calls are coming through at the high-end. kind of towards the low end. 200,000 on your medium estimate. about an hour away, with features not doing much. s&p 500 annual time with a basis point at 37 253. ♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan

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>> 60 minutes away. that struck out the price action for you on the s&p 500. we go absolutely nowhere. i've said it a few times already this morning. the longest losing streak on a weekly basis going all the way back to may. the yields slower by 15 basis points a big decline in the face of some pretty resilient labor data market this week. for now your 10 year 3.72 and the last 20 minutes or so fed hiking rates to 550.

is just the u.s. was talk about europe. shaping up as follows on the singha currency 104.90 2 -- one point 0492. still a problem for the ecb it is not moving in the right direction at least. come again. tom: this was important to days ago. your core analysis is on because cunningham and missouri both say extend the duration. what if you extend core cpi? what does it mean for rebuilding germany? the fiscal support ukraine needs. all of these questions are more enhanced than two days ago. jonathan: perhaps he was looking at a few months previously but the ecb i think i remember this as we closed out 2022.

forgot that the news conference from ecb that was the most hawkish ecb news conference i have ever seen. so blunt and to the point. it was were going to go again, were going to go again. tom: she has to speak to her constituencies. jonathan: that was a news conference. almost said that was the bloomberg's bank meeting. tom: how is it good to be 2023? lisa: we have been back for four days. you said it's already been a long year. jonathan: is like say happy and no more. lisa: you told me that. i stopped immediately. jonathan: you never wished anybody a happy new year. lisa: i wished you a happy new year.

can we talk about some interesting news going on in the market right now? look at tesla shares. they are down more than 6% and the why is interesting. they have been bombarded, we heard about the situation with elon musk but the latest one is really more interesting. they are loping their prices further in china which no means that certain cars by tesla in china are more than 40% cheaper than cars in the u.s. just to give you a sense. it shows a weakness in demand and difficulty in competing with local brands. it raises questions and not just for tesla. tom: it was under $100 in august 2020 unbelief. lisa: it release a just a broader slowdown which people are wondering about. bed, bath & beyond we were talking about them yesterday. they filed a going concern potential for bankruptcy.

those shares were down almost 30% yesterday. today, they are down more than 14% and i'm looking at lululemon because wells fargo raised it. i'm wondering if people are going to keep buying close to running. tom: lululemon wardrobe is a little light. [laughter] lisa: we started laughing so hard. jonathan: i do double shift when you guys clear out. i come to work at about 11:00 just printing out the door. [laughter] people coming out for a run out after work. maybe just warm up, gets to temperature, stretch out a little bit. just comes past me, sprints. lisa: he is just laughing, carrying his suit and looking very debonair. jonathan: do you do that every day? lisa: i do.

jonathan: did you maintain that pace as well? lisa: how else do you have efficiency? tom: i will have a martini. jonathan: what were you running away from? just getting away from work? lisa: what are we doing next? tom: when you become acclaimed there has to be a reason and his recent details with payroll today he is definitive on wage dynamics. tom, what do you look for with mr. powell's wage inflation metrics this morning? >> good morning. is it still too late to say happy new year? i don't know how that works. lisa: you can still say it. >> i know lisa doesn't say it. lisa: fake news. >> sorry i'm not able to be on video we have some issues on our end. i think there are ways of looking at wages, there's too

many ways of looking at wages. a lot of people made a big deal about yesterday's report with the job changers number. it's funny to me that people talk about how it's a 15% yeah, but it's down from 17%. again, i'm not saying that's not a big number. it's an enormous number but they have the same similar number, sort of a job change or number. that number is past the pace. let's be careful throwing these wage numbers and rates the running output when it's definitive no matter which one you want to look at they are all doing the same thing. they are rolling over. again, i think people here rolling over just jump to this result of things are really going to get talking the trash. we expect that there will be

continuing but you're getting back to where we were pre-pandemic. it's a reasonable outcome. that's probably where we are going with this. if you look at the growth forecast over the course of 23 it's not like we expect economic activity is going to fall into the tinker here. it's not going to. it should be fairly decent. tom: link together today's report and your optimism with the hugely accommodative trend for whichever financial condition index you want to look at. it's -.19 standard deviations. new accommodated trend with today's labor report. >> i mean, i think the bottom line is we are still in a very

accommodative backdrop. that is the reality of where we are. we think that as a result of that again, there is an irony in all of this on some level. q4, the q4 that just past that might have been we will look at that number in another couple of weeks. that was the strongest quarter for growth in 22. who would've thought that? sort of giving everything that's happened here but as we know as the quarter was coming to an end it was losing some momentum. i think the loss of momentum will certainly drag on into 21. lisa: hold on a second. >> so the level of accommodation i think still remains fairly accommodating. lisa: i was looking forward to having you, i'm trying to score

the idea that there is real strength in the market. you are seeing a bigger than expected jobs number that will come down the pike in little less than an hour. you think it's torpedoing the economy by raising rates and they shouldn't go much former dutch further and they shouldn't do much. >> i think it's pretty easy. one of the things i think we need to be mindful of is there has been an enormous amount of accommodation removal but into place. this is the most aggressive hiking cycle that we have seen. what we need to be mindful of, what is the fed really trying to achieve here? they are trying to slow inflation. they've been pretty clear. the reality on that, inflation is slowing down. we can have a reasonable discussion, argument, or debate on the rate at which it will continue to slit on but i don't think it's debatable that it is

slowing down. for reasons that i've delved on many times. so our view is, it's already happening. if it is already slowing down and you have signs to be sure that labor is. slow. we think there are sides that were going to do you -- going to continue to slowdown it's no longer necessary to be as aggressive as the fed has been. here's the thing, maybe the joke is on us. the hiking cycle is virtually over. we have to take it up to five .25 that the time it is all said and done. so i think the fed is aware of this too. i think the question is how much slowing have they put in place given their aggressive hiking cycle and i think that is where the debate is going to sort of sit for 23.

jonathan: happy new year, tom porcelli. sorry about the technical problems earlier. right on cue this popped up in the inbox. incomes will be stronger in q1 in addition to gasoline pump prices households will see to tell whence for disposable income. food prices and number two, utility bills. unless the labor market completely falsetto bed and unrealistic assumption real incomes relook barely strong this quarter. tom: net gas, 18 month low in new york trading. jonathan: that speaks to what tom porcelli was saying just moments ago the four q could be the best quarter for economic growth of the year. lisa: he says there is enough deceleration they might detour the difference between what he was saying the potential strength is massive.

the fed is going to have to go much further and tom is saying not so much they can see here and wait which is two very different views. tom: can we have a -- there were left out when they said late to 20 23. jonathan: couple of seconds? thank you come appreciate it. the deutsche bank sensor now in new york. lisa: the rfk bridge, does anybody do that? jonathan: the deutsche bank sensor. up next, tesla and apple. tom: up 103. >> keeping you up-to-date with

this around the world i'm lisa mateo kevin mccarthy site to become speaker of the house drugs into the fourth day. after a historic 11 rounds of voting the california republican still couldn't walk in all the votes to hold the position despite offering concessions on house rules. mccarthy and some of his supporters say they will press ahead with negotiations no matter how long it takes. u.s. authorities are ramping up the pressure on sam and freeze inner circle. they are scrutinizing one of his close associates. he hasn't been accused of wrongdoing and is unclear if he is cooperating with investigators or will do so. in the u.k. at the rep from the head of one of the biggest transport unions, there could be a coordinated weave of strikes involving tens of thousands of public sector workers. the u.k. is in the midst of a series of strikes including health curve -- health workers.

tesla made another round of price cuts on its model three the starting price for a locally model white suv has been slashed to $38,000. 43% cheaper than in the u.s.. tesla is cutting prices as it faces competition in china. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomgerg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is ridiculously profitable. companies are going to try to manage costs that climbed up a little too much during the euphoria post-pandemic. the reality is these are still profitable companies.

jonathan: we will talk about the tech story in just a moment. almost on about a 10th of 1% but no real trauma here. 37253 the tech story of the week so far, amazon, salesforce, the tech companies announcing layoffs. coming after post-pandemic era success. >> if you look at salesforce laying off 10,000, big tech company with more layoffs to some extent there was some element of bloated headcount. you had a very tight job market especially in the job market -- technology area and you had companies that ramped their head can't very significantly. jonathan: this is where we are. the excess of the last company. tom: i'm going to cut him major

slack on this. these are very different businesses, different margins but they all did the same thing given a medical crisis. they had to guess. jonathan: they had massive demand. the numbers out of amazon are just -- tom: they are unimaginable. jonathan: a million people to work for a single company in what? three years. it's just phenomenal. tom: i just used my new iphone to take an expanded shot. it went -- we are supposed to talk apple except tesla is not cooperating. 103.0 do you have a price in your head were mr. mosk's world unravels? >> about $6,070 of the cell of

has been twitter driven. the price cuts that we are seeing in china i believe we are getting to a point that i believe this is starting to get to the massive risk. despite going into a q4 they're going to lower guidance. i think that's the fear. jonathan: can you help me understand the backdrop? do you think the lack of spending in the economy or the competition i'm trying to work out. >> i think about 40 or 30% is covid driven. lockdowns and what we have seen in the country. no doubt, what's happening in china. when i look at the ev market in china we are still in the second, third inning. i view it as a going from hyper growth to more moderated growth.

jonathan: when they reopen, i think a lot of people make the argument right now this is a more nationalistic chinese consumer. they have cash to spend and buy a vehicle are they buying tesla's are going local? >> that's been a debate. the browned -- brand of tesla continues to be unmatched. if you look at the chinese consumer especially on the higher end i would say two of every three is going for a tesla. competition, price competition what it does to margins that is why the clock struck midnight in terms of hyper growth. that is what you are seeing reflected in the stock. 70% of the selloff we believe has been musk, twitter driven. lisa: the 30% that isn't related to that how much of tesla is the bigger story particularly with the lack of demand, a saturation

after buying certain types of electronics during the pandemic. how much have we seen a rightsizing as they do layoffs versus more room to actually cut? >> tech companies blew up over the last four or five years and they were spending money like 1980 sort stars. it was nonsustainable. going into reset -- a recessionary environment you are going to see the cuts but i view it as similar to 09 and 02. as the start to rightsizing. tom: given crisis, they saved us all with the cardboard boxes when we couldn't go out is one example. but is it finally silicon valley with cost cuts and financially finds a new adulthood, a new sobriety to act like other american companies?

>> i think they are transitioning to that. they learned from their mistakes. tom: microsoft never had this problem. books ultimately they have been tacticians as long as i would say with apple in terms of everything that cook has done but when you look at the rest, it was an arms ring to outspend. the talent and what the demand look like. what is happening, we go into the q4 numbers get cut i believe it is under 2009. i think we sit here february, march, april see what happens. despite sentiment which many yields fire in a crowded leader. jonathan: are we going to go through a sinking moment? >> that in my opinion marks what i view as a core bottom. jonathan: the question is the back of the kitchen sinking

moment do you think the kitchen sink leads to a probably because you get this relief? >> i say eight, 10% above. today, they are probably 8-10% below and i think that is the difference between into suit -- institutional perspective. you have already seen numbers come down the board. it looked fundamentally, especially with enterprise, software cybersecurity across the board we are seeing 93, 90 5%. also remember if you look at apple given everything we saw with covid in terms of china, all the supply chain issues they are going to preannounced, not even a question. it goes to a point, demand despite what i think in terms of the quote -- clock striking midnight and i think it is holding up better than expected. lisa: the story of 2022 is no longer big tech. they are catering to permanent

business are there other companies you don't think will revive? that you don't think will be underpriced? >> i think that's really more on the social media. when you look at meta-is they have significant headwind because of what is happened on apple ios and ajit pai jason -- advertising. they cut costs. look at the stocks. tom: this is the reality, take a photo, run it through 48 megapixels. edit it in another app, throw it to someone sitting in the studio. that's the world. jonathan: you love this camera don't you? ? i do. help me here. the chip is what matters. nobody in the financial media

talks about the chip in whatever toy you are talking about. >> it is the biggest innovation to come out of apple in the last six or seven years. they are being beaten at their own game. jonathan: your style is tk. tom: he's looking great. can eyes today, these guys are encyclopedic on this stuff. jonathan: think about how long they have been around. i would also make the argument they never really faced a test because the pandemic for some industries was a reciprocal tests. for many of these firms, this year could well be if we do get the recession the first test they face in the united states. tom: that's the sobriety i am

talking about. we will talk with dan about this in the coming weeks. jonathan: 27th. what we get the end of january? >> tesla, microsoft. tom: we're going to go we are selling all these stupid phones through the mobile phone companies jonathan ferro needs one of these. >> i think he needs an iphone. jonathan: i don't want to change this just yet. what am i waiting for? the 15th or 16th? lisa: 23? jonathan: 2024? payroll is rated the job numbers are 34 minutes away. ♪ store was also the first time you realized... we can do anything. cheesecake cookies?

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>> what we are seeing is a boost. >> fire rates consistently to slot on the economy to generate slack in the labor market. >> we are likely to see slower and slower perils. it's important to not get distracted with what is

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