welcome to "daybreak asia." shery: a risk on mood as both but the impending u.s. inflation data will bolster the case for the fed to ease rate hikes. china's factory gate is set to end a two month run of inflation as opening boost prices. ftx advisors uncover more than $5 billion in assets as a sort through the failed crypto exchange chaotic records. haidi: let's look at asian markets. futures are trading at the highest level since mid-december. we are expecting covert optimism. as well as anticipation head of

china inflation numbers and u.s. inflation numbers. there is a bit of uncertainty about what we hear from jay powell. asx 200 up by almost percent. the subject gains in oil overnight. all of this tying into the china reopening optimism. we are seeing a little bit of upside when it comes to the staggered open. the aussie dollar has been holding at the $.69 level. last night it was the biggest gain or in the g10. we are seeing more modest gains in the modest -- morning session. kiwi stocks up by .4%.

nikkei futures looking pretty flat. the dollar yen holding steady at 132 at the moment. quite a bit of reluctance when it comes to a lot of the big money managers out of the u.s. as to whether this is the time to revise the bear case scenario. shery: given how much we have really rallied in the golden dragon nasdaq index, look at u.s. futures. pretty muted in the early asian session after we had a second session of gains for the s&p 500. we are talking about that optimism that perhaps inflation data will be cooler again this month. this coming on the heels of tech stocks gaining ground although in the future session, we are seeing more pressure on that side of trading. when it comes to treasury yields, it was fluctuating throughout the session but ended lower when it comes to the

yields level. the 10 year yield heading toward 350. it's also the china story as you were talking about copper oil and oil continuing to move higher. five sessions of gains already in new york. this would be the longest streak of gains since october. since we are seeing more oil from the u.s. being released across china as demand continues to pick up ahead of the lunar new year holidays. >> the inflation picture remains a big unknown. what we get out of china particularly as we see the consumption of energy oil the accelerated pace of purchases from china ahead of the lunar new year. these two big sets of data that are focusing on china cpi ppi. is it too early in this picture when it comes to the dropping of covid zero and how we start to see that passing through to the

economy and into the u.s. were traders are betting on further softening of price and that could support the case for the fed to ease their pace of hikes. let's get over to kathleen hays. also stephen engle. kathleen, what are the expectations and how much softening we see in price pressures? >> year-over-year giving us a sense of the trend, that is what's so important is the trend finally starting to decelerate. last month, the cpi numbers came in lower than expected. another deceleration is expected will be get the latest data. the headline numbers expected to go from 7.1% to the lowest level since november 2021 6.5% year-over-year. that is a good deceleration. then take out food and energy and it's expected to go not done as much but from 6.0% to 5.7%. another move in the right direction.

what the fed chair is concerned about him a all fed officials, sticky prices like wages not coming down particularly in services. the next chart, what you are saying is jay powell's -- what he is watching most closely core services housing. that is another key metric. finally some people might take happiness if they are bullish on inflation coming down in the fact that the headline monthly number is supposed to be down .1% after being up in november. people say deflation, certainly for one month. but these are the numbers they bounce around. it would have to see year-over-year numbers before you would say deflating. they show the numbers that economists will be talking about

potentially. shery: what about the fed and what does this mean for the rate hike project three? >> susan collins today said she is opening her mind to a 25 basis point rate hike february 1 instead of 50. that it is a very data-dependent decision. she sees possible 25 basis point hikes in february. another reason why these inflation numbers, they need to see inflation sustainably moving lower. the more we see this happening, the more the case builds. no one is stopping the fed from saying they want to get the terminal rate up to 5.1%. they're still saying that we have to hold rates there for a while, but if we see 25 basis point hikes month after month and getting to the terminal rate and pausing, certainly a lot of investors will take that as a positive signal. haidi: when it comes to the

inflation picture out of china, parts of the country are still grappling with this wave of cases. >> that's why we will be looking at the factory gate prices. the ppi today. december numbers will not tell the whole story. data has a lag effect. the opening up story, the abolishment of covid zero happened so fast you won't see those price pressures come in until we really move through this year. the metals prices we have seen, the gains feeding into as well what could be a rise in ppi. look at the ski slope down. that doesn't tell the whole story. her base effects essentially. remember october 2021, we had ppi at 13.5%. there base effects from year ago

figures, but bloomberg economics expects to return to inflation from months of deflation based on base effects of course because metal prices are essentially rising and they are supporting the price gains at the wholesale level. rebar and copper both advancing in december. these are the high-frequency data we get. essentially, there will be the lag effect into cpi at the consumer price side because food prices have been muted. pork, those prices have cooled. if you strip out energy and food, core cpi in china is benign. below 1%. as the opening up story picks up steam, we get into the lunar new year, we get past march and stimulus starts kicking in, you

could start to see a pickup in cpi and definitely ppi at the wholesale level. oil is going to be the big wildcard. jeff curry sees oil prices at $110 by the third quarter. a lot of that do the china opening up story. shery: what does that mean for the broader economy? >> the officials are throwing everything at stimulating recovery. whether it's by deemphasizing the regulatory crackdowns on the platform economy, deemphasizing the property sector, essentially abolishing covid zero and of the economy. the potential impact of tourism through the holiday and beyond as the borders open up. there's going to be an inflationary picture going forward in china. the demand for oil, raw materials as the property sector

picks up as people's confidence returns, but there's going to be a lag effect. there's going to be inflationary pictures building and by most economists accounts. just not necessarily reflected in the december data we get today. shery: we have more. india's december cpi numbers are coming out. looking for signs of when the rbis will listen its aggressive policy. economists expect cpi to rise to 5.9% on year. let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: advisors say ftx have found more than $5 billion in cash and assets that will help repay some investors and customers. a lawyer told the court that they are looking to monetize $4.6 billion in liquid assets.

they also found other assets that are illiquid and harder to sell. blackrock plans to dismiss 500 employees as it grapples with sharp declines. the world's biggest asset manager says the cuts will affect 2.5% of its global workforce although that will still leave the headcount higher this year than last. blackrock is the latest wall street firm to announce reductions in staff. bloomberg sources say a corrupted computer file appears to have led to the breakdown of the u.s. air safety system causing thousands of flight delays and cancellations. we're told the glitch also created a failure and a backup system. the faa says normal operations are gradually returning. the white house said there was no evidence of cyberattack. russia has changed its lead -- military leadership in ukraine. the chief of the general staff

will replace the previous who had been in charge since october. the reshuffle has been linked to what the kremlin is calling and expanded scope of objectives. it is expected to speed up decision-making on the ground. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead we will be joined by a guest to seize a deeper cyclical -- for chip companies. and against says why he is saying the risk of more demand destruction by central banks. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> our next guest sees the risk from central-bank policies. this finally balanced optimism we continue to see across markets and the way investors are approaching central-bank risk at the moment, do you think it's still underpricing the risk of more demand destruction through higher rates?

>> it's a balancing act. the good news, it's being evident -- since october coming through cpi numbers in the western world and that's good news for central-bank policy makers. if there's something we learned in 2022 and aggressively so it's that the hawkish narrative will complement any cpi data whether it is good or bad. they have one good chance to ensure that the policy delivers some form of stability in profits going forward and getting the reward of the demand destruction and calendar 22 with lower inflation and that's to continue. the second half of this calendar year inflation and puts. falling might rise then go back down again in 2425. remaining hawkish with their narrative is good policy given what they have been trying to do and there is so much resilience

in the u.s. economy in particular with the labor market which is evident in other economies as well. the demand instruction -- a lower upper band will be about right and good news for risk assets going forward. haidi: when you take a look at the china reopening story, there is clearly a balancing act also as to how over what time and what asset classes you will see longevity in this rally. that is still one of the key place for you this year. >> without a doubt. they will have to do whatever it takes in the physical sense and try to attract a finite dollar back into that part of the world which is very nervous. we are still very nervous to be reinvesting in the economy. they will have to stimulate whatever it takes monetary

fiscal and they will be dealing with the biggest property bubble we have ever seen. reopening of china as messy as it is, it is a net positive benefit for global growth. european equities generally benefit from trade across the different sectors within china and southeast asia for that matter. that will be the play that we will encourage. exporters and producers of energy materials agriculture metals into china and develop market equities also would be the beneficiary of china reopening. messy, nonlinear, but net good for global growth. >> how are you hedging currency fluctuations? >> it's very difficult. while we are the beneficiaries of some of the strength because

we report in aussie dollar's here, the peak of the u.s. dollar was three or four months ago. sometime in the middle of the year the commodity narrative will pick up again, the u.s. dollar weakness toward the second half by towing from where we are at the moment. the wrecking ball of the u.s. dollar economy is behind us. we don't see the u.s. dollar re-accelerating their appreciation to where we got to in 2022. the difficult, very choppy, and from bha of the other central bank surprise us, but the dollar strength is well behind us for this part of the cycle. >> we are hearing that the boj will be inspecting the side effects of ultra-loose policy. are you expecting some

divergence and monetary policy given where the previous he is headed? >> difficult to play it with policymakers. pboc stimulate, bank of japan makes us all quite nervous we try to second-guess them and the federal reserve it's pretty clear they are getting toward the end of their tightening cycle but real rates will be tightening and a high discount rate is our new friend for the next 3-4 years. no more puts coming from central banks. we had be cognizant about that. there's more pretty debility in the fed going forward in the next 3-6 months versus the boj. >> thank you so much for joining us. we also have breaking news. we are hearing that t-mobile is said to be weighing whether or

not to buy ryan reynolds meant mobile. -- mint mobile. ryan reynolds has been the pitchman and part owner. there has been no final decision and the closely held meant mobile could remain independent. we haven't heard from the representatives of t-mobile but or from mint but we continue to watch for potential murder -- merger talks. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg.

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shery: advisors for ftx have found more than $5 billion in cash and other assets that may help repay investors and customers. su keenan joins us with the latest on this case. it was back in court today and i wonder where you just find $5 billion laying around? >> it's good question and you have a lot of experts going through the records. this was a normal routine day in bankruptcy court in delaware to address various issues for ftx. we know that the new ftx ceo

says it was highly unlikely anyone would recover losses. it was a surprise that advisors found more than $5 billion in cash or crypto assets that it says may be able to help pay that creditors. this came from lawyers at the hearing who said they are working to monetize assets with a book value of 4.6 billion dollars. this had they also found a large number of other crypto assets that are hard to sell. they have been sorting through what is left of the company to try to find this. the former ceo and cofounder sam bankman-fried has been arrested and charged with eight criminal counts and faces charges in october. two of his inner circle close advisors have pled guilty and are cooperating with prosecutors at this point. sam bateman freed faces trial in

october. again they don't know how much money creditors will get back. you are looking at the embattled shares of coinbase. in a vote of confidence in crypto, el salvador passed a law that would allow the country to raise funds for the world first sovereign octane bond.

>> the genesis global capital, grayscale bitcoin trust which is trading at a discount. dcg dealings are now under scrutiny by u.s. authorities. investors tried to allay concerns saying it's the most difficult year ever. much more to as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network.

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vonnie: susan collins says she

is leaning toward a quarter-point rate hike at the next meeting. she says a smaller increase would allow more time to assess the impact of previous moves. the fed policymaking body meets next month. susan collins does not have a vote. the u.s. navy says it's taiwan policy remains the same. the pentagon says operations have been affected by the availability of hardware, other military operations and the weather. u.s. naval transits are at a four-year low next year while activity almost doubled. u.k. and japan will allow military forces to be deployed to another territory as tokyo expanse. the agreement was signed in london allowing for larger more complex joint military exercises. the u.k. is the second economy

to forge such an agreement with japan. the who says given the insufficient data, it is understandable that countries are bringing back measures targeting travelers from china. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> let's take a look at what we are watching when it comes to the commodity sector. the return of chinese global demand really driving both rallies we are seeing across copper as well as oil. oil capping the longest winning streak since october. this is on account of reports that chinese companies have been snapping up u.s. crude cargoes.

all this happening despite the big rise in u.s. crude inventory the biggest jump since february 2021. when it comes to copper, we are seeing price levels topping $9,000. it is trading at the highest since june after the two month rebound. all of the policy measures on it comes to the property sector for china stimulus measures is contributing to a better commodities outlook but particular demand for copper being the key industrial metal bouncing back after a 14% decline last year. >> no wonder we are seeing it as one of the top performers when it comes to the china reopening play in the last few months from november 1 to january 11 is number three in the list. iron ore topping the list of winners when it comes to metals.

as you mentioned beijing also trying to fix its broken property sector and some of the stimulus measures coming into play. this is a second day of the asian financial form in hong kong bringing together leaders in government, finance, and business. let's cross over to the event. >> it's the second day. they are doing the sound checks. we're talking more about infrastructure. talk about the reopening story in china as well. one of the things they have been doing is ramping up investment into infrastructure. also when it comes to the energy crisis sparked by the ukraine

war, it hasn't sped up the transition into green energy. i'm pleased to bring in our guest. great to have you here in hong kong. let's talk more about ukraine. underscoring the need to speed up his transition. a report last year that the shift is permanent. this can shift landscape for decades to come. it is this the turning point you think? guest: it is true that the ukraine war has brought home the need to make our energy systems resilient. the war has created some extent on the back of covid-19 the fact that the supply chains are lingering, the war is causing disruption and supply of fuels shortage of fuels. we are doing everything we can with our colleagues at the world

bank to make sure the energy situation is resolved. but also to make sure we have our eye on the long-term. that everything is built on the back of covid-19 recovery and the ukraine war is resilient, green, and building back at her compared to what we had before. >> how sustainable is that given what we have seen when it comes to energy prices? we have already seen investments into renewable energy in europe slowdown as well. what are you seeing across a pac? >> the need of the day is investments in renewable energy. prices are going to be across the board cheaper than fuel based energy. >> what is that going to be? guest: it depends on the individual country.

in india, solar became cheaper than coal three or four years ago. we were pleased to be part of that transition. having said that, the transition probably -- challenges are real and they vary from country to country. some energy systems are more readily able to take on more renewable energy than others. there is a technical restriction with regard to the amount of renewable energy tickets put into a grid. you may recall five or 10 years ago when we used to here there was a technical limit to the percentage of renewable energy that could be brought into energy systems. today we know that's not true. we have countries that have significantly more than 10% of renewable energy in their grade so it is possible. there is one emerging-market in latin america uruguay that has more than 50%. it's easier to balance energy systems when the energy systems

are small. asia has a lot of small countries therefore on the back of good government policies, making sure we don't have the subsidies come up disincentives for the private sector to invest long-term and sustainable energy. it's possible and we are here to help. >> apac is southeast asia, india, china that is still heavily reliant on coal. what does the path to decarbonization look like? >> it's challenge bull -- challenging but doable. there are other sectors that contribute to carbon. transport, cities are a huge contributor. the industrial sectors are some of the hardest to evade sectors in the world. india and china have a lot of that. having said that, the government has been putting policies in place to encourage renewable energy.

government of india successfully has been encouraging private sector investment. the ifc have been present in india in the last 34 years. asset development finance institution are -- to bring new investors. in china we have been in china for many years. we have supported robust government policies with regard to financial sector development, green finance. with years and years of advisory services. we have also supported investments. not only in energy but also in environmental services. the path is different to each country but it is doable. >> what are the unique challenges and needs? it's not one-size-fits-all.

>> the unique challenges to attract the right capital that has the appetite to work in emerging markets and address the challenges in emerging markets for sustainability. i come from and emerging-market so infrastructure to meet his personal. when you see infrastructure to be the invisible web that links people in an inclusive society that enables the disabled, differently abled individuals to be inclusive contributor's to the economy, it is real. i do have to say there is a lot we can do together to make sure that we build back in a different way to where we were before. the challenge in asia is that the paradigm shift has happened. what got asian economies to be the biggest growing and strongest growth economies over decades is not going to continue unless we change the way we do business. >> where do you see the ways --

the business opportunities now? is it still urban, water, solar, wind or energy stores? >> it varies but clearly one huge space is energy storage, battery storage. there will be about 56 gigawatts of storage by 2030 globally and a lot of it and we hope to be able to support some of that in asia. some have developed policies conducive to storage. japan for example india china indonesia. another space that is extremely interesting is green hydrogen. it is not commercially available at scale today but we hope it will be in asia by 2030. at the moment it's 2-3 times more expensive but the reality is 20 get there.

we're going to need economies that have plentiful sheep renewable energy power. we have to have the right energy system the right load factor. overall, those technologies are spaces we are looking quite heavily into. >> your posting -- posting a panel here about that. we will continue on this infrastructure as a conversation

they did just about 9.5 billion dollar sales in 2021 as they face the same challenges coming out of the pandemic also at this point the impact of inflation higher cost and labor market challenges as well as the rest of the fast food sector. we have big names. we are joined by an investment bank president and after that a

former chief executive will be with us as well. it >> up next, tsmc reporting earnings after stock fell in 2022. we will have a preview. this is bloomberg.

>> tsmc reports later after a bad year for stock ricin 2022. our next guest sees a deeper cyclical bottom in the first half. good to have you with us. how bad could it get for tsmc this year and when could we respect -- expect a recovery? guest: for tsmc, the challenge is going to be frontloaded. we do expect a tough first half which will make full year challenging overall. for tsmc, they are going to be responding to quite a good slowdown or i should say hangover from the pandemic buying consumer electronics. that has impacted pcs and smartphones.

the covid controls in china have a hangover from that. the other piece because of the shortages, a lot of supply chain inventory built up. where customers were trying to secure as much as they could. i will be a bit to let -- too long as demand was slowing's another have inventory overhang. our expectation the next couple of quarters, the supply chain has reversed the mentality. they're now worried about demand. the silver lining is they will try to cut it down quickly. inventory correction usually takes quarters, not years. the next couple of quarters is where we will see the toughest challenges. >> we continue to hear that apple wants to move more components output in-house. also that the u.s. wants to nearshore more of these critical component makings. how big of a challenge as it in the years ahead for tsmc?

guest: two sides to it. apple doing more their components, that part is not necessarily that bad for tsmc. we have had a close partnership with apple and to that extent, tsmc's other customers are supplying on chips like connectivity. it moves to apple, that product we see moving into tsmc. also products like the modem. either way, tsmc his pickup market share over qualcomm. we saw tim in arizona to help launch the fed. the other part for tsmc, there is a challenge after the pandemic. you have also had a lot of lobbying for more diverse supply chains from different companies. tsmc will need to respond.

stay very strong on technology and aggressive developing and have place for consumers in new geographies. there is some cost to that, but if the execute on technology it is showing some of their key customers will stay with them follow them to geographies and tsmc has to manage it to keep the profitability intact. haidi: the bifurcation when it comes to u.s. and china, who stands to benefit the most? what opportunities are there? guest: you might look at it as lose-lose and yes there has been disruption on both sides. equipment, supplying into china for u.s. companies. there are opportunities and we are seeing it. china will put more effort on building up equipment, materials. the u.s. does not look like it's

trying to stop mainstream technology. to that extent there will be opportunities in the broader mass-market. even china exporting to emerging-market if they can't go into u.s. and americans as much. the high-end logic and other manufacturing more restrictive. other companies if they are doing high-end ai chips, they can still fabricate those overseas at places like tsmc. the bifurcation in some ways helps in easing price pressure. we are seeing aggressive competition in china staying in china this cycle so you are getting better pricing environment for some of the non-china international business. haidi: we've been talking more about the exhilaration into -- base processes. is this the next big driver of

demand for a lot of these companies including tsmc? guest: it's a different way to skin the cat. instead of having the entire chip moved to an event technology that is very -- move to an advanced technology, you can split up chip. not all the chip has to be on the complicated advanced code. if to small extent there was ai high-performance computing, having the ability to chip let's keeps it going. generally a thick it's just a shift to be able to integrate product in a different direction. to the extent it keeps performance moving ahead, it would keep the innovation.

shery: thank you. breaking news out of japan, the current account data and for the month of november a surplus of ¥1.803 trillion. we are seeing now a surplus for the month of november. we continue to monitor the current account numbers not to mention the trade balance numbers given the rising energy and weakening japanese yen. all this playing into the current account numbers. now finally turning back into a surplus for the month of november. haidi: sticking with japan, japanese firms have little to fear as the boj continues along with its loose monetary policy stance. a preview of the japan open next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> analysts say the pressure on japanese stocks we saw last month could fade. cash-rich firms are shielded to any potential and to the last negative rate policy. how's the japanese market perceiving the surprise policy shift in terms of ongoing impact on equities?

guest: the nikkei has underperformed the rest of the world since the boj made the surprise decision in december. it has fallen 3% while the rest of the world has gained 4%. the market players are clearly nervous but that doesn't mean the softness is going to continue for a long time. shery: how should investors watch for the uncertainty surrounding boj policy? guest: one factor is often overlooked is the japanese companies don't have a lot of debt at the moment. about half of japanese companies have met cash position. when you think about the reason of monetary tightening it's partly because it's going to increase the cost of borrowing and costs for companies.

in fact, any rise in interest is half of japanese companies so that's one factor that could possibly sink in and the longer term. shery: interesting. coming up, invesco explaining your prediction of a fed pause and subsequent pivot this year. plus we will discuss the global economic outlook with an agent investment bank president. the market opens in seoul and tokyo are next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is "daybreak asia", we are counting down to the major market opens as we await u.s. inflation data. really expectations that we will see cooling prices again here in the u.s., and boosting wall street, we will see if we get that sense in china. but we are seeing high-frequency data already showing a lot of optimism about the reopening there. haidi: and particularly when it comes to bringing it out of deflation territory. we see using inflation elsewhere, the momentum is building for more inflation in china as we see gains across the main commodities and energy. shery: we have already seen that side of the equation make it -- a difference when it comes to japan's account. going back into positive territory after falling into deficit. of course we're talking about 1.8 trillion yen that we just got a few minutes ago.

take a look at the open, the nikkei gaining around a fifth of the consecutive session. more optimism -- optimism about where japan is headed. a little bit of strength for the first time and force essence. we are watching jgb's because we saw them make big moves after that resilient demand we saw the 30 year option. we continue to watch the 10 year yield. take a look at the kospi, we have seen the longest winning streak since august. we continue to add to that with 7/10 of 1% for the kospi and goes up half a percent. we are also watching the korean won holding at 1241 level just -- just ahead of the be ok rate decision on friday. the expectation for the last rate hike in this tightening cycle. haidi: of course, as you mentioned, the key is the inflation picture, not just when it comes to the u.s., but in china. this optimism of the china reopening driving a lot of these major markets that we have seen

trading across the region. in particular, one of the beneficiary seen as australia's first commodities demand. iron ore is one of the biggest gainers in the early part of this year. we are seeing the extension of gains by 1% at this point. again, we are seeing the leadership when you take a look at sector by sector. a lot of strong gains when it comes to materials and energies, even some of the consumer names have been doing quite well with the expectation of that come back of china and the outbound tourism story there as well. also watching currencies as we see the aussie dollar being one of the big leaders across the g10 complex. a little bit of a haven play when it comes to the dollar, but ahead of the inflation numbers out of the u.s. we are seeing moves, not just when it comes to the aussie dollar, but also dollar-yen as well. that's a little bit on that anticipation of more policy tweets from the boj. we are also watching a move down when it comes to treasuries as well is what we see in australia

bonds as well, just continuing as we see that slumber earlier in the week. heavy supplier has been a big story here when it comes to the treasury market. let's bring in our next guest to continues to favor non-us solar assets and equities, as well as value stocks going into the new year. joining us as our global market strategist for asia-pacific at invesco. great to have you with us. when you take a look at non-us, are you looking at emerging markets, and is is this the china rebound, china reopening lifting all boats in that space store -- sort of story? >> yes, we can expect a strong cyclical recovery and china propelled by chinese household consumption. that should really benefit northeast export oriented economies who make electronics, and overdone to southeast asian economies that benefit from chinese tourism.

from an apap wide story, i think the cyclical recovery makes sense, which we give a boost to this region's equities. haidi: what happens if you get a resurgence of the u.s. dollar? what currency is the options you are banking into emerging asia doing very well? david: i think when we look at emerging asia, the key components are not only china's recovery, but also the interest rate policy set by the fed and why we will continue to see a bit of softening there. and that should then have an impact on the u.s. dollar. in our base case assumption, we think that the dollar has already peaked and that we will see a downshift in a possible cause in the fed's interest rates. which i think is a conducive environment for apac and emerging-market assets. shery: when can we expect the chinese consumer to make a comeback, especially given that

inflection rates are serving right now are not helping at the moment. david: i would expect an l shape recovery for household consumption. you know chinese households are sitting on a significant level of savings amassed during the pandemic. these savings are expected to be spent down. although i wouldn't expect a very quick, expeditious spending of the money, but we should start to see some of that spending flow in the second half of this year. really starting to see chinese travelers in places like china -- thailand and other parts of asia and that should start to ramp up and incorporate to. shery: we are expecting chinese inflation numbers as well. where do you see the pboc going in the sense that they do want to stimulate the economy, but inflationary pressures could also become an issue further out into this year? david: i think we will get a bit more policy support in the first

half of this year, policymakers have emphasized that growth is of preeminent importance for this year, and i think that we will see additional cuts to the policy rates, but i think that the second half of this year we could certainly see consumption and household spending pick up the baton to really propel growth forward. haidi: what about the economies -- shery: what about the economies depended on china, will we see the optimism and boost in those exporters across south korea, taiwan and japan? david: i think we got a balance global growth that's decelerating, and the recent export numbers from places like korea and china have not been very encouraging. overall, i'm not sure that china's reopening will completely offset global demand, but it will certainly have a positive component to it. other economies i think that

should benefit our places like australia, that are commodity exporters, china's property market should start to improve as sentiment starts to ameliorate. haidi: does that mean earnings season upcoming will be in interesting story and where you see the leadership there? do you think earnings and valuation levels are fair at the moment? david: i think earnings across the world may be week for the coming quarter given that we are still in a very tight financial environment. so i think earnings in places like europe and the u.s. could disappoint. in places like china, i think that we will continue to see disruptions from the covid reopening's, so i don't think earnings will improve in the second and third quarter. we might be in the slope time where earnings may be weaker than expected, but i think that we can expect the flood -- fed pause i the middle of next year,

and also china's reopening is starting to regains theme. so i think earnings are really a second story for this year. shery: given the reopening and china, what are we expecting in terms of commodity prices and would you that on those commodity related stocks? david: i think that commodity prices for things like steel and iron ore moved significantly. in anticipate and of the property market improving and china in the reopening, where i expect other commodities to move up. i thing energy and price of oil still has a ways to go, especially -- i don't think that has yet reflected in china's reopening yet. shery: always good talking to you, global market strategist for asia-pacific at invesco. let's turn to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: advisors for the bankrupt crypto exchange ftx have found more than $5 billion in cash and other aspects that

may help investors and customers. a company lawyer told the federal court in delaware that they are working to monetize $4.6 billion in liquid assets. he said advisors have found the separate chunk of assets that are harder to sell. bloomberg sources say corrupted file appears to have led to the breakdown of the breakdown of u.s. air safety system causing thousands of flight delays and cancellations. we are told the glitch caused the failure in a related backup system. disruptions are likely to linger although the faa said normal operations were gradually returning. the white house earlier said there was no evidence a cyber attack was to blame. russia has changed its military leadership in ukraine, appointing -- as head of the nation's combined forces. russia's chief of the general staff will replace -- you had been in charge since october. the reshuffle has been linked to what the kremlin calls leah global perspective.

it's expected to speed up military decision-making on the ground. the u.k. in japan will allow military forces to be deployed to one another's territory. tokyo expands bilateral cooperation amid concerns about china's rise. u.k.'s prime minister in japan's sign the agreement in london, allowing for a larger, more complex joint military exercises. u.k.'s the second country after australia to forge a deal with japan. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, we will speak with the aiib president. at the asia financial forum as it marks its seventh earth day. but first, we preview a big day for inflation data with price prints coming out of china and the u.s.. we will dive into expectations and applications, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: when it comes to inflation, first of china and then the u.s., let's get our global economics and policy editor, kathleen hays. david ingles well. there's a lot of hopes being

pinned on the softening of price pressures in the u.s. what are we expecting? kathleen: maybe we will get lucky and the numbers on cpi will come in lower than estimated for a third straight month. that's what happened the two previous months. there's a forecast, looking for the headline cpi to go from 7.1% to 6.5%. 6.5% will be the lowest year-over-year increase in cpi since november of 2021. on the core, not quite as dramatic improvement, but improvement nevertheless from 6% year-over-year down to 5.7%. this is the number the fed is watching very closely and this is the number that contains what chair powell is so concerned about. sticky prices like wages, particularly in services. watch core u.s. services minus housing. this is the indicator powell and other fed officials are watching so closely. on a monthly basis it has been coming down. if he continues to come down, better news.

in terms of monthly numbers, we will see the forecast declined to 0.1% in the month of december following a gain of 0.1. very low monthly numbers already, and that would be a one month deflation. obviously, the headline numbers are not deflationary. this inflation -- we will be careful with those two terms, they are welcome by the fed but they have a lot to do with fed rate hikes where they go next. shery: thus the question, where are the expectations on that? kathleen: the expectations are growing and will downshift from a 25 basis point rate hike in itself down from 75. set susan collins, president of the boston fed, talks about this issue in an interview that was carried today in the new york times. and what she's saying is yes, she's open to looking at the 25 basis point hike. she said it's reasonable to do this looking at 25 versus 50. it will be very data-dependent.

she too is watching very closely with inflation -- inflation does. inflation can't peek in stall our pecan stopped coming down, it has to come down sustainably month after month. she also said she is in favor of adjusting rate slowly so they can assess what the impact of's of all the rate hikes, where it's going next. she sees the possibility that to get to that terminal rate of 5.1%, that's what markets are finally pricing and, they see possible 25 basis point hikes -- she does, in february, march and may. that would get them to 5.1 in many fed officials said they paused by the middle of the year, get to that terminal rate in the second quarter, and assess what happens next. very important number, some fed officials said they too are open to this debate 25 or 50. haidi: huge implications and how -- in terms of how it plays out in china.

david: -- stephen: we have to look at cpi and ppi. let me get a look at talking at cpi. 1.8 percent rise is the number is the consensus estimate from economists. 1.7 percent gain from 1.6% in november. important prices is actually a big polling. if you strip out food and energy that cpi according to bloomberg economics, below 1%. so cpi inflation is not a big issue for the big bang. but there is a lag effect. we have to look at the wholesale prices and regain inflation to see how that will potentially, eventually lead into cpi inflation. ppi, it's been in deflation for the last couple of months. a lot of that is because the base effects from one year ago. if you remember, we saw factory gate inflation at 13.5% in

october of 2020 one. so there are base affects. we have to look at the meadows demand and oils demand in this opening up of china. the sudden dismantling of covid zero. sudden u-turns on property restrictions. in the sudden u-turns on people's ability to travel as well as the reglet tory pressure on the lot from economy. all this coming quickly that there will likely be inflationary pressures. look at the metals prices we've seen since november. iron ore was on a bit of a tear. oil prices are potentially going to go up. jeff curry at goldman sachs predicting $110 for oil by the third quarter. largely because of china demand. copper is on the rise. curry had a bullish rise on copper as well, i mention iron ore. that's not necessarily going to be reflected in the december numbers.

it will be into, as jeff curry predicts, into the third quarter and throughout 2023. there could be factory gate inflation scenario and china that potentially could lead into cpi inflation. shery: that could be painful not only for households but also businesses. what does this mean for the broader economy? stephen: the broader economy is seeing tons of stimulus. the priorities of the government is to stimulate growth. so you are going to see that kind of stimulus whether on the fiscal side, we haven't necessarily seen it on benchmark rates from the pboc, but definitely there's going to be inflationary pressures building up. but right now, we are not going to see it in the december numbers because there is still some hesitancy and property purchases and hesitancy and automobile purchases, big-ticket items that contribute to cpi, that that could change as confidence rebounds as we get through the lunar new year holiday and the travel time into

the later part of the year when the economy -- as the officials are predicting, as covid subsides and the economy stabilizes and starts to grow towards what some economist are saying could be upwards of 5.7 percent gdp growth in 2023 in china. shery: stephen engle kathleen hays there. let's stay in china because stress and the $740 billion offshore credit market has eased to the least in almost two years. let's get the details from bloomberg china credit editor kevin kingsbury. kevin, what's been the -- what's been behind the changing stress levels onshore and offshore in china's credit markets? kevin: just like steve mention we have this big china reopening tray. in china we've had this move out of bonds, both government and sovereign debts -- corporate and into risk assets shuts -- such as stocks and metals. we've had the stress rise on the encore markets because we've had

this we organization of how prices are being weighed in the bond market. bond prices for corporate credit for spreads were historic lows just two months ago, now we've moved back to a little bit more of a normalcy for the onshore market and that's why we seen onshore stress rise according to the credit tracker. go ahead, we've had the same reversal where the officer market has recalibrated as well, property prices had fallen to record lows as fars the barnes -- bonds go. now we have this big rally. both markets have moved back towards the middle little bit where it was overly optimistic, onshore was overly pessimistic, and now we both moved to an equilibrium. shery: i think what everybody is trying to figure out is that if all of these changes coming from china are a real shift there. are we seeing a broader change

being signaled in the market? kevin: we've had property measures that have been announced the past several months that have been -- that have gotten folks off the doomsday scenario they were looking as far as property goes, but property prices are still falling, property sales are still weak year-over-year in december and as far as the property goes, it's definitely a big shift in sentiment that will have some sort of sustainable recovery. haidi: the last seal was characterized by record offshore default, what are we expecting for 2023? kevin: many developers starting defaulting on their bonds. many have not been defaulted on yet.

the biggest developers said -- or in recent days signaled it's going to make all of its payments due this month, so there is definitely the survivors that we've seen so far . offshore defaults are probably going to ease from this really historic level that we seen in 2022 with a tripled from 2021. haidi: you can get around up of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can find that at dayb on your terminals. it's also available on the bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize the settings so you get the news of the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: it's really all about inflation, is in it. we see european futures trading higher and really extending

those gains we saw in the regular session. it's all about expectations and we are going to see a cooling inflation here in the u.s., something that really set u.s. markets higher. we are seeing the upside cross over to asian equities as well. with bond yields slipping and seen the gains, retail shelves also -- shares also let the gains. msci europe is higher by 4/10 of 1%. haidi: let's get a check of the latest business flash headlines as apple is working on adding touchscreens to mac computers. apple engineers are actively engaged in the project. more than a decade the company has argued that touchscreens don't work well on laptops. apple is also worried that touchscreen macs could cannibalize ipad sales. a launch hasn't been finalized in the plans could change. walt disney has the independent director as chairman. a seven-year board member of the disney board and executive chairman. he will succeed susan arnold,

who reach the 15 year term limit. despite the board being reduced to 11 members, the company rejected a proposal to name activists investor nelson to the board. twitter is considering selling usernames or online auctions as part of the ceo elon musk campaign to find other revenue streams outside of advertising. that's according to the new york times. they will be discussing the proposal. twitter plans to purge 1.5 million in active accounts, which would free up some usernames that could then be sold. microsoft says its shifting policy to give u.s. workers unlimited time off, matching a system already in place at its linkedin unit. the changes start next week and apply only to full-time employees in the u.s. microsoft says it has considered the possible floors in such a system and expects workers to be able to get adequate vacation time. shery: we are talking about upside against the u.s. dollar but strengthen the japanese yen

for the first time in three sessions. the korean won also gaining ground at the moment. this ahead of the be ok rate decision on friday. the expectation is for the last rate hike in this tightening cycle coming from the bank of korea. the aussie also extending gains up to tens of 1% already. we are seeing multi-month highs given the solid inflation data and retail sales that we saw out of the economy. coming up, from supply chain issues to the soaring cost of living, the asian infrastructure investment bank says we need to work together to address global challenges. the president and chair joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ [elevator bell] [female narrator] we're drowning in information and it's harder than ever to separate what's trustworthy from what's not. but we can learn to see through the tricks and tactics of bad actors, develop sound habits of mind, better filter our sources.

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haidi: we are getting tray

numbers coming out of australia at the moment, exports coming in flat. when it comes to the month of november. these are the month on month numbers. still better for the construction of 1% of the previous month, imports coming in at a contraction of 1%. matching the readings we saw the previous month. we are seeing a brighter picture and because the demand out of china, not just with the covid zero reopening, but the potential detente in the trade relationship. we are hearing reports that they could see the first shipments of australian coal subject to this unofficial -- with the two-year ban start to arrive on chinese shores. we have really seen that import sure demand picture when it comes to key commodities. biggest export of iron ore to seeing huge price gain so far this year on account of that optimism of the demand look out of a reopened china. shery: we are seeing a little bit more pressure as the day

progresses. the nikkei has just turned negative. we are talking about consumer discretionary and utilities leading the decline in markets, despite the fact that energy and materials continue to gain. that's a big boost for the asx 200. the kospi is still gaining a little but of ground, this ahead of the be ok rate decision. on friday and kiwi stocks continuing their move higher. the asian financial forum is underway in hong kong bringing together investors and global financial and business leaders. that's crossover to the event. yvonne is standing by with our next guest. yvonne: i'm pleased to be here. joining us is the president at the asian infrastructure investment bank. they are close to celebrating their seventh anniversary. as of january, proving a little more than 200 projects racking up more than $40 billion or so. they get so much for joining us. obviously there's a lot of

optimism around china's reopening. there's been a push for infrastructure, investment domestically. i'm wondering globally, is there now a mandate to lend and provide much it's -- budget support globally. >> thank you very much. to attend the meeting yesterday i made a speech about what this bank has been doing over the last seven years. in three years time we will be celebrating the seventh anniversary of the founding of this institution. 202 projects of the total amount of almost $40 billion is quite something for a new bank starting from scratch. but we have been able to achieve this by the strong support from our shareholders, which grows from 57 to 100 06. the geopolitical background on the global economic situations,

this bank would do two things at the same time, one is to help developing member countries to fight against the pandemic and its fallout on the economies, including the disasters caused by the climate change. it provides it with the base infrastructure project, infrastructure for tomorrow. so we do both at the same time. yvonne culley needed that last year with 3g, mongolia and sri lanka. are you expecting to do more that provides funding this year as well? >> it's very much important based on the system of this. we have to adhere to the basic of mandates of promoting economic social progress through investing infrastructure. at the same time, the bank must

be agile and responsive to the needs of some of these countries when they are in distress. so, we follow this principle and i think it has been working very well. as you know, the 4g's feature prominently in our bank, which is global governor and we stay the course and we think it's very much important to strike a proper balance between immediate needs and long-term development. yvonne: what about the balance when it comes to loan portfolio, given that we continue to hear from loan portfolios about the increasing debt loads of these countries that we just talked about. are you worried about more sovereign defaults? >> of course, is quite a challenge for some countries when they have to deal with the indebtedness.

but our bank has been following the basic principle or providing new money to the countries, and also to prepare increment in prices by high standards. so we have taken a look at the projects that we have four provided over the last seven years. they are all doing very well. we think it's very much important not just to provide any money, but also to provide high-quality support. i think based on this principle and thanks to close cooperation between this bank and others, i think we can help the highly indebted countries to turn around. haidi: let's take pakistan for example, there was the the grio of the financing package, what other plans are in store, what more support can we expect this year? >> we are working very closely

with the pakistani government. to support we follow the basic principle approved by the board, we co-financed with the bank, and i think this can ensure the high quality and implementation of the projects. as for the basic infrastructure projects, we follow a view of due diligence rigorously, and i'm sure it is in difficult times, and i think we can help them in to tackle a current challenge. yvonne: ai -- aiib has decided not to do business with countries like russia, belorussia and we've seen others , not just pakistan, really dealing with financial strain, defaults in difficult situations.

a finding get harder to commit to projects and lend to those projects? >> we have put on hold the projects of the two countries for the review. i think based on the banking system of all of the member countries. we are taking a very cautious approach. i believe this is very much appreciated by all of the members of this institution. yvonne: what is the willingness to lend. we've seen investment in the belt and road initiative countries and seeing

entrenchment during the pandemic. now the economy is opening up. do you think that investment can pick up quite quickly from china , given at a time when china is dealing with quite a bit of domestic challenges? >> china and i think can handle its own domestic economic issues and its own macroeconomic policies. as you know, china is also promoting, very strongly, the private sector development. i am concerned more about all of the rest of the members, i try to help them recover in their economy, and to help them to have more infrastructure projects.

of course from the days ahead it would be very tough. the development bank is all about, it is a time we are in the media and whether we should do what we should. shery: let's talk about the long-term and not losing sight of the long-term goals. it's about really not only these investments and then being green investments in green infrastructure like the aiib focuses on, what are you seeing in terms of actual volume and is there a concern that perhaps given the energy crisis, many countries are turning back to fossil fuels? >> i understand. this is a very tough time meant because of the higher energy prices and higher gas prices, some of these countries turn back to burn coal. we keep our communication with all of the members and we --

well some of the policies pursue by the member countries are based on their own situations, as a development bank in this 21st century, our job is to deal with climate change and other development challenges. so we stay the course, we provide financing for renewables. and it is actually a time when we think it is more than ever important to provide financing for renewables. whatever the activities done by the member countries, our job is to do financing for mitigation and long-term developments. so in this regard, as you see, we aim at 50% of climate financing by 2025, and we can achieve this way ahead of that. and also, we promote private sector development, we aim at 50% of the private financing by

2030. and it's important for those countries to help sustain economy and achieve early recovery because the private sector is so important for all of them. yvonne: tell us about aiib's impressions and visions in tackling climate change, excluding coal projects is one thing that's in line with the paris agreement, but what about when it comes to gas, for example? >> this is a social energy, mostly needed by the developed countries and also developing countries. our job, as i said, is to provide financing for green projects -- climate change, mitigation and adaptation. so i think it's very much important for us to work closely

with the borrowing countries. we support your green projects. yvonne: we will leave it there. president and chair at the aiib joining from beijing. haidi: great conversation, we do have many more of those conversations coming up from the asian financial forum. a little bit later, the former chief executive will be joining us at 10 past 10:00 a.m.. we will also have them in the 11 hour programming, the bit x cofounder and chief strategy officer in the former new zealand prime minister helen clark as well. we do have some breaking news just crossing the bloomberg there. we are hearing that apollo future mobility to buy w m motors unit for just over $2 billion.

we are just hearing that apollo future mobility will buy the entire issued share capital of w m mobile investment for $2.02 billion from w m motor holdings. according to a statement in the hong kong stock exchange, that deal will be studied by way of allotment and 28.8 billion shares at 55 hong kong cents each. let's get you now to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: boston fed president susan collins says she's leaning towards a court-appointed rate hike up the central banks next meeting. she told the new york times a smaller increase would allow more times to assess the amount of previous moves that have brought borrowing cost to their highest and years are the fed's policymaking body meets next month and collins does not have a vote. the world health organization has reiterated its all for china to share more information about cobra transmission and strains that are circulating during the current surge. the who says given the

insufficient data, it's understandable that countries are bringing back measures targeting travelers from china. blackrock plans to dismiss 500 employees as it grapples with sharp declines in equity and bond markets. the biggest asset manager said it would account 2.5% of the global workforce, that that would leave its headcount higher than last year. blackrock is the latest wall stream firm to have staff reductions with the threat of recession. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. shery: the world's largest chipmaker is due to announce in medical decline of the electronics market. a preview is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: mistake you look at how we are faring the first early part of the trading session this thursday in asia. we did get that optimism, softer inflation out of the u.s. and signs of the economic recovery in the china price numbers coming out today driving expectations of this early part of the session. this is what we are seeing when it comes to japanese equities. seeing a little but of softness. elsewhere around the region, a picture of gains, modest gains

coming from south korea. we are watching australia when we see the bulk of the rally take place. we see that rally really being led by those china's sensitive segments like materials, energy commodities and the like. weakness across semiconductors is one of the dominant themes that we could expect going into 2023 as well. the first quarter earnings are due out later on thursday. worried about her weaker demand. china markets reporter. what are we looking at in terms of expectations? >> we've seen tsmc report the first for the first quarter. i think it's the first and almost two years. so today it's going to announce the full earnings report and analysts are really concerned about the real demand. recovery and also smartphone

market globally. in that weak demand is going to hurt tsmc's revenue growth outlook, and it's also going to be posing a challenge for the margin recovery. and also, tsmc is setting up a lot of plans and other places, like arizona, so markets also are really keen to hear the company is cost plans and those capex plans and to see if they can continue to maintain their margins going forward. shery: we have seen tsmc stock really slumping in 2022. what will today's numbers mean for where the share price goes from here? >> right, we are seeing shares recovering a little bit from october low, but in the meantime, is still more than 40%

for u.s. shares where it's below peak last year. so i think going forward, analysts really want to see when the inventory correction cycle is going to end. her for that end, and consumer demand to really recover, i think, going forward, if there is some positive signal about the inventory cycles, and also if we see positive signal from the demand recovery, only if you hear those kind of signals that the market will feel comfortable buying into that stock again. shery: our china markets reporter there. coming up, why the recent policy swings has proven too much for u.s. fund managers to dive back into chinese markets just yet. a preview of the open next. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: subway has reportedly hired advisors to explore sale of the chain. roastery journal cite sources saying the sale could value subway and more than $10 billion. the company told the journal that is a privately held company

doesn't comment on ownership structure and business plans. bloomberg has learned that credit suisse is considering cutting its bonus pool for 2020 two half. that caps a grim year in which the bank was forced to raise $4 billion after a string of losses. cut by half would make the 2022 bonus pool about 1.1 billion dollars compared to $3 billion two years earlier. bloomberg has learned that electric car giant tesla is closing in on a deal to factor indonesia, capitalizing on the nations reserves of key battery metals. sources tell us the plant could produce as many as a million cars a year and is the companies's goal for all of its manufacturing facilities. that's after the u.s. and china and china germany. chinese carmaker is planning on aggressive expansion in india's electric vehicle market. the company told bloomberg it seeking to capture 40% of

bloomberg cv sales by 2030. they entered in 2007 and will launch its third electric car, the seal luxury sedan by q4 this year. >> and so long term goal. by 2030 we want to be at least 40% of the total eb market in india. that's our long-term goal, being a global manufacturer. so that's the goal. haidi: recently as a sober, the world's money manager has an attractive investment destination, but a lot has happened since then as we await the china open. our chief china market open joins us. are there any china bears out there? >> china reopening trade is the most obvious and easy to follow macro trade in the world. you can argue against that in the short term. repositioning, covering of

shorts, reallocation from asia-based funds, but u.s. funds are still very skeptical and long-term. a lot of the capital that left china over the past two years left for the same reasons that are still in play right now. skepticism over china's long-term growth and over things policies. that hasn't changed, when i spoke to u.s. fund managers they tell me, we see the reopening trade, we understand why it's happening, but we are not quite ready and we are not really ready to trust the china story quite yet. so china grows in the long term but obviously it's a massive trade since october, massive retracement of chinese assets. shery: that debate over the and the stability -- invest ability of chinese markets. especially when you think of fomo for a lot of analysts. what are we expecting inflation numbers to do the markets? >> inflation out of the u.s. or

china? inflation out of china is still muted, that's something that china has managed to compress, it's a complicated story in the consumer side because there isn't enough demand to really see that number tick apart. u.s. inflation story is complicated for china because it's obviously a global flow play. so if we do see the dollar rise again, that weighs on the yuan and you see the government bond outflows continue out of china. shery: thank you for the preview of the china market open. this is -- this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time your sales reached 100k

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[elevator bell] [female narrator] we're drowning in information and it's harder than ever to separate what's trustworthy from what's not. but we can learn to see through the tricks and tactics of bad actors, develop sound habits of mind, better filter our sources. and elevate more credible information. together we can stop the flood of misinformation. let's care before we share. learn how at newsliteracyweek.org. [comcast jingle]

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