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australia has just come online. our top stories this hour. a cautious opening ahead for asian markets as the global equity rally stalls. investors are bracing for a daily show data on china's economy. beijing ramps up support for developers. 24 billion dollars in property lines. we are to tokyo. intense speculation about a further adjustment to its ultra easy policy. let's get you to the start of trading. >> we have the open of the asx 200 and at the start of the day, we are unchanged so futures had been indicating we would snap a four day rally for the benchmark index. wall street was shot overnight for a public holiday so no significant need in there. rio tinto is one of them. this is the world's top iron ore producer and a key producer of commodities that put out its

latest production report and it sees higher than expected copper output over the coming 12 months and very good timing on that as well given goldman sachs just released its findings this year, saying commodities will outperform any other asset class over the coming 12 months. let's take a look at other centers we are watching today including what is happening in new zealand. we are seeing the new zealand stocks trading fractionally higher even though we did have a private reading out of business confidence for the country, dropping to its lowest level since this ninth -- the 1970's. the rbnz has been a front runner in the tightening cycle but on the topic of central banks, the boj in japan is the one to watch this week. we are seeing the yen trading fairly flat this morning but still, most economists seen no change to the key rate. the big question is whether we see any changes to its program appeal: -- of yield curve control. we have seen the real rally in

onshore assets extending the csi 300, now up 18% from its low setback in october. a lot of economic data coming out of china today as well as breaking on alibaba. haidi: much focus when it comes to the reinvigoration of the chinese tech space. we are hearing that the activist investor is known as the meme stock kingmaker for building explosive rallies. he has built a stake in alibaba with hundreds of billions of dollars and privately pushing the commerce giant to accelerate and further boost its share repurchase program according to people familiar with the matter and being reported by the wall street journal. that steak was being built in the second half of last year. it is small in comparison to the market cap of almost $300 billion but of course, ryan: has a prolific -- ryan has a prolific following. we are seeing of course in his

portfolio including the likes of apple, wells fargo, citigroup, he first contacted alibaba's board back in august with a view that the company shares a deeply undervalued. the activist investor has built a stake in alibaba group according to the wall street journal. staying with china, key economic data will show slower growth at the end of last year although attention is shifting towards a strong rebound in 2023. enda curran now, the data points from the end of last year, it's irrelevant at this point given that we know the impact of covid zero was still taking place. >> feels like ancient history given how much things have changed in the recent weeks. fourth-quarter gdp data showing the economy grew around 1.6% and that's obviously a low figure for an economy like china. the economy grew 2.7%. that is well below the government's target of 5% for

the year. a big jump in retail sales there. not much of a kick in from the property sector. all told, the numbers are expected to be quite bad, reflecting what was going on in december which was all about the hit from covid zero restrictions and then the move when china abandoned those are sure actions and moved away from covid zero and the virus spread and everything else went with that. the numbers today are expected to be negative. such a 2022 story because this year is expected to be quite different for china's economy. haidi: quite different but lots of variables in terms of how the recovery plays out. what are you hearing and the people you're talking to as to what shape this recovery looks like and what the impact is for

the ongoing covid waves we are seeing across china? enda: number one, you can't look past the public health crisis and number two, there isn't enough transparency around the scale of the prices -- crisis in china. they are not getting enough insight into the caseload, the fatality rate, the sequencing. etc. until that picture becomes clear, it's difficult to measure out from there how the consumer will recover and how the economy will recover from there. the cookie-cutter template is they have a boom. there are expectations that could happen in china but there are plenty of people who will tell you there will be complications ahead. nonetheless, if china does navigate the health side of things, it is expected to get motoring in the middle to second half of the year for sure. big rebound in consumer confidence and spending is expected. some wall street economists talk about growth of over 5% for the year. the government will come in with a target and that is what the

expectations are. on the others out of the ledger, the property sector is finding its feet and the government is putting support in there. that would drive domestic activity in china. shery: bloomberg's -- haidi: enda curran without spirit we are told these new measures are on the way to support high-quality property developers. what do we know about the latest plans? >> support we are seeing for the property sector. we have a new measure that has just come through. and the plan here is for china's financial regulators and its bad debt asset managers to possibly refinance support for developers in china of up to $24 billion. the details on this so far are a little bit scanned but what we are told by bloomberg sources is half of that loan amount is going to be channeled from the pboc through the likes of wall around -- of a company and its

peers. the expectation is that these asset managers will then provide or match that amount from their own reserves. we are talking about support for the highest quality developers in the country, particularly as there more sense of weakness in the sector. this graphic showing the continued slump we have seen in new-home prices in december for a 16th month and working with asset managers as well because these were companies that went out extensively. very much exposed now to what is happening with the downturn. haidi: we are also seeing more signals of support and the desire to again kind of refresh the tech sector and the growth companies in china. annabelle: this is a multisector approach that beijing is taking to shore up growth in the company -- country but the latest one is the ride-hailer, didi, will be allowed to let new

users sign up to his app. just how long it has been offline, it was widely expected but regulators removed it from app stores in july of 2021 said this is about 18 months of absence we are talking about and it came off the heels of the company pushing ahead with its lifting -- listing in the u.s., against the wishes of beijing. it is a signal that officials are serious about offering support for the tech sector. bloomberg intelligence say it means the likes of tencent come alibaba, unlikely to see any sort of disruptions over the course of 2021. that is a good timing given that you can see alibaba and tencent are trading cheaper on a forward estimate than what we have for the likes of big utility companies. it could work towards resuming its listing in hong kong, haidi. haidi: china gets underway with

trading today, tech and property. the details on those sectors. u.s. stock markets are closed for the long weekend to commemorate martin luther king day. we are seeing futures contracts and looking a little bit softer at the moment both for the nasdaq 100 and s&p futures off by 1/10 of 1%. we are much improved markets as well that advances taking a bit of a breather, looking at the trajectory of the china reopening. wti sitting lower. new york crude, just under 79 u.s. dollars a barrel, falling for the first time in eight sessions. i bit of taking stock across asset classes at the moment. let's bring in our mliv contributor, garfield reynolds. you are being the bearer of sensible news at least. is this a sign that the buy everything rally is coming to a pause? garfield: we have davos kicking

off and a lot of people talking about recession fears. recession, recession, recession, one of the main talking points that is coming out. the imf is reiterating its concerns on that front. if you are expecting widespread recessions globally, it is hard to get excited. it's too hard to see crude oil going to much higher and even -- we have had a strong rally in copper. that is still going. often tends to go in fits and starts and you look at iron ore. iron ore took off on china reopening. it has turned around not just because of a direct, real-world supply and demand situation. it has dropped back because the chinese authorities have come in and said this looks like excessive speculation to us.

it mostly happens when it goes to the upside rather than to the downside. that raises another difficulty which is that governments everywhere are in a situation where they are rather sensitive to anything getting too pricey, too fast. in china, they want to keep the economy going in the right direction. elsewhere, it is central banks wanting to keep inflation going in the right direction. when you have goldman sachs saying it's very bullish commodities, that makes sense if you just stick to the real world, looking at what it is seeing. there is the fact that what the central bank have to say to that -- a central bank will be happy to keep the settings where they are and that commodities and other things go out too fast, too far in place. haidi: in the multi-verse of central banks, the bank of japan occupies a very strange space indeed. garfield: it does.

the twilight zone when it gets down to it. corona shocked us all last month. he did so supposedly not because he wanted to change policy settings but because he wanted to improve market function. he ended up trashing market function, having to buy trillions and trillions of yen of government bonds every day just to bring the yield back down. strong expectations that yield will jump above the ceiling again today and again, they will have to come in. finding a resolution one way or the other is something the global bond and currency markets need before they can move on towards something that might look more normal. haidi: jeffrey reynolds there. inflation as well as investment -- corporate executives,

economists, warning that a recession is likely this year. take a listen to some of the voices we heard on day one. >> it's a new regime. great moderation is over. when the economy struggles, central banks will ease and that was true in the past. i don't think it will be true this time. >> they hope by the end of this year or next year, things will come back to normal. >> we need to stop thinking in short-term. we need to think more long-term. haidi: keep watching for more exclusive interviews as bloomberg keeps you up-to-date on davos throughout this week. let's get you to paul allen with the first word headlines. paul: u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen will hold her first face-to-face meeting with chinese vice premier liu he on wednesday in zurich. beijing says the talks are aimed at strengthening economic and

financial policy coordination. the announcement follows the november meeting between president biden and xi jinping on the sidelines of the -- pledged to work on a deal for northern ireland but stopped short of formally announcing the final phase of negotiations. progress has been building since last week when the e.u. agreed to use the real-time u.k. database tracking goods moving over the irish sea border. an agreement would resolve dispute over the northern ireland protocol, part of a wider u.k.-e.u. brexit deal. germany's defense ministry is stepping down following a series of missteps and days of speculation over her future. christine came under intense media scrutiny after posting a new year's eve video which seemed to make light of russia's war on ukraine. she was also criticized for her lack of military experience. it is a blow to chancellor olaf scholz's government. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, we get the outlook for renewables from george washington's university energy management is to do. take a look at how investors are pricing in a recession. what that means for corporate earnings in 2023. and asset management company representative is with us, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: our next guest says

investors should look to equity once we see more pronounced downward economic earnings revisions. joining us now is william, a portfolio manager at milford asset management. great to have you with us again. what is your trigger point for being more optimistic then? >> we want to say earnings are downright -- typically, equity markets will bottom when -- in a recession but not at the end of recessions. one or two months before the bottoms of earnings expectations. we are at an early stage of an earnings position. earnings are down but that will play out over the next six to nine months. as earnings pullback, 50% from the highs, that is when you are excited about equities and looking to put money to work. cyclical -- as we come out of an

economic slowdown. shery: we heard from philip talking about -- haidi: we heard from philip talking about how getting from -- is that the structural stickiness that markets are not placing him at this point? william: yes, we agree with that. the structural change in inflation is aging. it's actually a shrinking working age population and elements of supply chains is structural given geopolitical risks. over a decade requires a higher neutral rate of interest rates to keep it at bay. we are going to have significant cyclical deflationary headwinds and we are seeing that now and we are outside of shelter inflation in the u.s. in the last three-month have been very

little inflation. that may continue for a period of time. beyond that, we think markets get surprised that inflation comes back pretty quickly as we come out of the next downturn. haidi: perhaps a little bit contrarian. if you see this messy breakup between what we see the correlation in stocks and bonds, you are seeing bonds as being the winner. william: we do, really. we believe there will be somewhat of a downturn. we believe when that begins, -- we are not saying they are going to cut them but we can see cuts later this year. not would be good for bonds and during the recession, you're going to have the earnings downgrade playing out through equities. bonds can rally and equities can go down.

it is significant. haidi: how do you trade japan at the moment? they are in a twilight zone. they are at a place that is difficult to move. whether they do something or nothing, it's hard to find the justification and the functional ability to be able to do that, right? william: how do you trade japan? if you are not an absolute expert, i would not trade it at all. you can see big movements either way, depending on what corona does on wednesday. many investors for bond which is anti-are saying that this yield curve control target of .5% cannot remain.

the target is causing inflation and he will be forced to increase the target. that is likely to be correct in time. in the short-term, a pretty significant rally in the yen already in anticipation of what we might see that would cause an unwind and of these banks that have been placed. traders -- it will be a volatile week. haidi: does that make china a safer trade? going for one of the harder trades, being japan, asking the question, are there any china bears left? how do you review the reopening opportunities question marked william: the reopening has -- opportunities? william: the reopening has driven flows and a lot of the strength in that market. we think the trade is getting

pretty much over. those people in the reopening have probably done so. rollover some of those beneficiary trades, looking -- in the short-term. in the medium-term -- it's a little bit of a tour. -- chore. haidi: william. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to go to get your day going in today's edition of "daybreak." it's at dayb on their terminals, and it's also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. you can play around with the settings as well so you just get the news on industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. china evergrande size in order -- after disagreements over his 2021 financial statements, adding pressure to the developer. according to filing, evergrande says the two sides could not agree on a timetable and scope of work. in a separate letter, it says it did not receive -- evergrande says it will appoint an interim auditor. toyota is expecting vehicle production to exceed pre-pandemic levels. 10.6 million units in 2023. the japanese carmaker warns final shipments could be 10% lower especially semiconductors. in november last year, the auto manufacturer had to lower its production outlook because of the lack of chips. volkswagen is expecting growth recovery this year. the german carmaker sees demand growing between 4% and 5% to 23 million vehicles from just 1.6%

rise last year. vw expects growth to accelerate after the first quarter as restrictions and supply chain problems ease. rio tinto's i an hour shipments rose 4% in the fourth quarter -- rio tinto's iron ore shipments rose 4% in the fourth quarter. it increased its copper output forecast and will report for your financial results in mid-february. investors on high alert at the bank of japan, beginning its highly anticipated meeting. we get a closer look at the expectations. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business

internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple.

golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. >> we do have breaking news crossing the bloomberg when it comes to consumer confidence out of westpac for australia for the month of january, rising 5%

month on month so consumer confidence rising to 84.3 and of course comes in the middle of really the post-christmas holiday and sales, retail sales season as well. a little bit of upside when it comes to the aussie dollar as well as even though we had that pause in the selloff that we see in the greenback. broadly, we are seeing some points of weakness when it comes to the australian economy, particularly when it comes to some of the week dropped in the property markets and all of that in addition to higher than expected inflation, potentially giving the rba some food for thought. let's get you to bill for a look at the markets. -- annabelle for a look at the markets. annabelle: we are snapping a four day advance. it is being driven lower by material stocks today. off by 1.2%. we have u.s. markets shut for a

public holiday, futures looking flat although we did see miners underperforming the benchmark in europe and that was down to what happened with iron ore pricing. we saw the big drop in iron ore and you can see still lower at the open of trade in singapore. they will crack down on price distortions in the market. in terms of the companies operating in this space, rio tinto is the biggest. even though we did actually see the company projecting higher-than-expected copper output over the coming 12 months, goldman sachs among those saying commodities will outperform every other asset class over the course of 2023. we are keeping an eye on what is happening for financial stocks. we did have a callout from citibank, saying it is bullish on australian banks coming into the course of 2023. we have japanese futures coming

online, pointing fractionally higher although they could come under pressure. japanese stocks from the yen, given we are seeing it looking stronger against the greenback. that really has been one of the key factors that has pressured japanese equities over the past few sessions and we are near the strongest level for the currency since may of last year at the 126 level, and that is the one to watch. it could be changed for what happens in the boj meeting tomorrow which ramps up on wednesday, haidi. haidi: investors are in high alert for any kind of further policy tweaks from the boj. kathleen hays is in tokyo for that and she filed this report. >> how he could kuroda ---- kuroda altered a bedrock of its ultra easy monetary policy by adjusting the parameters of its yield curve control tool. he had given no signal he was about to raise the ceiling on the 10 year jgb and kept

insisting this will not happen until inflation was sustainably about 2%. after the meeting, speaking to reporters, kuroda insisted this move was merely eight-week, not the first step on the path towards policy normalization. >> the distortion of the yield curve has become very strong so we made some adjustments today. kathleen: it pushed up on yields around the world and economists see it as the force that pushed the boj to widen the band which may push it to boost the ceiling up to .75 or even higher. >> i think that would be virtually completing the change of the framework. if that is the case, i think abandoning -- completely abandoning the ycc will be forward and put them in a much more stable framework. kathleen: are say widening it is simply the boj putting on its shoes. but not yet taking the first

step. instead of widening it further, they expect kuroda and the boj to send a signal by raising the 2023 inflation forecast 2%. >> if it goes beyond 2%, that's good reason for preparing for their first step for the normalization. kathleen: whatever kuroda decides to do with the final two meetings of his decade-long tenure, there is widespread agreement that boj is on its way to policy normalization this year even if the first big steps are not taken until a new governor takes charge in april. haidi: let's get to tokyo where kathleen joins us. talking to our previous guest, he's saying unless you are an absolute expert at japan, do not even try and trade this because the risks are so high as to what the boj could do or not do. kathleen: well, of course. that makes so much sense.

when has governor kuroda ever done something like this? he surprised in the past but after so long, saying that you cannot begin to even think about exiting stimulus, starting towards normalization, until you have inflation sustainable -- up to percent and it is there but there are doubts inside and outside that the boj will stay there. in a way, it says that whatever happens tomorrow, which is very important, it seems to traders and economists that things are baked in the cake. i love this chart. there's a lot of hedging out there. it's a focus on the yen swaps trade which shows that the 10 year yield is already going to trade. you are buying that bet that it will trade about the current ceiling. bloomberg economics is saying the boj may find a way to signal

that now, they are watching swaths, now, they are watching what is happening as a prelude to some kind of program to manage that. and another expectation that is -- expectation of whether they move right now or whether they move in march, april or beyond. this is where the boj is heading. something as simple as dollar-yen. it has gotten up to 126. that is a big move, getting near the strongest that has been since may of this year. one trader told me that this one, it is easy to sit back and by yen. no matter when they move, this is the direction they are heading. a lot of talk about a regime. they moved together and under the new regime, someone was chosen to replace kuroda who is less in the stimulative camp and

more in the tighter camp and the politics, the pressure from the government are seeing already in play and perhaps continuing, getting stronger under the next boj regime. haidi: kathleen hays in tokyo. let's get you to paul allen with the first word headlines. paul: bloomberg has learned china is plan to offer 160 billion yuan of refinancing help to some developers to support the slumping market. sources say the pboc will challenge -- channel loans through china and its peers. the bad that firms are encouraged to match that from their own coffers. first announced on friday with little detail. a report out on tuesday is expected to turn how much china's economy was damaged by the end of the covid zero policy . the surge in infections took its toll in december. according to a bloomberg survey, gross domestic product in the final quarter -- in the final quarter likely slowed to 1.6%, less than half the base of the

third quarter. japan is urging the world's regulators to treat cryptocurrencies as they do banks. in an interview with bloomberg, the financial services agency attributed the collapse toluse governance and the absence of supervision. japan's own crypto rules will help investors who were poised to withdraw their funds from ftx's local subsidiary next month. the italian mafia's most wanted boss has been caught after 30 years on the run. the italian military police arrested matteo at a private clinic. he has been convicted for dozens of murders including those of two judges. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. haidi: george washington university's sustainable energy director joins us next. we will take a look at southeast asia's efforts to move to

renewables. our energy transformation segment is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: southeast asian governments raised their climate ambitions. with new funding and schemes for renewables. in our segment, we are taking a look at the market outlook for

clean power developments in a asia, vietnam, thailand, malaysia, and the philippines. joining us is caroline schwab. in terms of southeast asia progressing on their climate commitments, how would you rate that? caroline: setting long-term climate targets from the government has been very encouraging and as mentioned, we saw governments maintain their momentum from around cop26 where we saw the carbon neutrality targets being announced. they enhanced climate commitments even further. many southeast asian corporations are now signing up to initiate charting pathways.

the commitments from the government and corporation s provide the emphasis that they need to implement schemes for economies to take concrete steps towards the energy transition. in terms of reductions, there's a long way to go. we have seen encouraging momentum and hopefully, that follows through this year and the decade ahead. haidi: take us through some of the key power developments in the region. caroline: one thing we see now is these long-term commitments trickling down to lead to revisions of national power development and one thing to note is the power markets in southeast asia are highly regulated so this which is put forth by the governments, energy ministry, have a very big say in

development and the choice of technologies that are being built and one thing that we expect is powered about months -- power developments become clean-air and have a higher focus for renewable energy instead of the oil and gas and coal they traditionally focused on. and what we expect also's plans to start accelerating opportunities for renewable energy developments and from a commodity price point of view as well, we see governments being increasingly challenged by volatile commodity prices and availability in these have hindered coal and gas power projects. from an affordability point of view, governments have motivations to start exploring the potential of renewable energy alternatives to ensure that they do have enough power to do -- to drive and to power economic growth.

while we do see a slowdown in terms of renewable development in 2022, specifically in the solar and wind sector, we expect some of these issues and power plants get finalized, these developers, especially solar and wind capacity additions, growing to increase by about 81% year on year. haidi: our bloomberg power markets analyst, caroline. a global renewable energy technology optimization firm that helps distribute clean energy -- the group's president is from george washington university and he joins us now. great to have you with us and of course as we kick off the new year, we are looking at outlooks in terms of what we can meaningfully expect when it comes to the energy transition in terms of investment funding.

practically how much infrastructure can be built up. what is your outlook? scott: good question. obviously, the ukraine more has changed the energy market globally in a big way. there's much more price volatility in oil and natural gas and that's making everybody nervous all over the globe, not just south asia. it's going to be hard to predict prices and at least the renewables, more than just solar and wind but also biomass and geothermal and hydro and the other marine energy technologies, they are pretty stagnant, meaning that they are price stabilized. it's an easier decision to make. less risk but as your expert said, she is correct that in utility markets, they are heavily regulated so they are the slowest ones where the

private markets -- private sector in infrastructure markets tend to be much more bullish in using these technologies. shery: -- haidi: when it comes to australia's ambitions, huge potential in terms of the amount of renewables that can be exported. not off to a great start with the bankruptcy being declared. when you take a look at a technology like this and there's been widespread skepticism as to how it can be executed, this ambitious undersea grade to basically -- grid to being one of the key pillars to execute the energy transition not just within australia and regionally, what do you see as being the problems and the opportunities with a plan like this? scott: again, the plan is an interesting plan and has merit and it may be a little more ambitious than just moving

renewables on-site in a more distributed fashion, distributor generation. microgrids are a global phenomenon. growing at huge increases, but it means blended technology solutions on-site at the corporate campus, at a substation, so not looking at a regional play yet. it seems to me that that is where -- what you want to start with and then backfill with the larger network approach with undersea cables and longer transmission lines. that takes a lot of time and a lot of regulation whereas on-site power doesn't take as much. i see the trend going more in that direction right now rather than sort of the big thing and

the heavylift kinds of projects. haidi: in terms of scale, is that going to be enough to address the energy requirements, not to mention the climate requirements, the timeliness of how wiggly the world needs to do this? scott: absolutely and i think actually much faster. the dialectic between copper wires and communication and cellular beyond the wire. this is the exact same analogy, the chance of putting in gigawatts which we are seeing all over the world in renewables come on-site, where they are needed, where they are economic, and somehow able to dance a little through some of this regulatory morass is going to be a much swifter play than trying to just really fight these bureaucracies and complicated interconnection standards and utility planning.

i'm seeing that the private sector and the local government markets and infrastructure markets are really going to drive that change because they are going to use it themselves. haidi: we have seen a pretty big fall in solar prices. obviously, some benefit and others will not. what do you see as the biggest challenge when it comes to the market dynamics of supply and demand if you take a look at future metals, future commodities? kathleen: -- scott: i think many years ago, there was a shortage in silicone and i saw all these press reports. my god, the solar industry will not be able to deal with this and the private sector came in and they had seleka and manufacturers come in and how they financed it was they made the big solar companies do big subscriptions and pay upfront. they can get the capital to

build the plants they need and within a couple of years, it all came online. i see the exact same play happening now. there is plenty of access to metals and rare earths and everything. it just takes time and who shares that cost and i see that the solar, the wind, the battery markets, industries are playing in that game because they want a short supply so they can build markets. i'm not nervous about that. i see the market functioning absolutely as it should be. haidi: scott, great to have you with us. really interesting conversations. adjunct professor at sustainable energy director at eemi at george washington university. he sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the day's big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team. we are broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. you can listen via the app,

radio plus, or bloombergradio.com. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you made a sale online was also the first time you heard of a town named... dinosaur? we just got an order from a dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first.

haidi: nissan and renault are set to reach an agreement to revamp their alliance as early as this month. let's get the details from asia

global business. whatever hearing? >> this -- what are we hearing? >> deal for each side having 15% of each automaker, that that deal could see what finally this month. these talks have been going on for some time basically for the past year. they have been quite france, quite detailed -- fraught, quite detailed so this does indicate that there has been some agreement on particularly those issues around intellectual property that nissan has. haidi: it is a pretty complex split. emma: absolutely. this is a structure that has been in place for a really long time since carlos ghosn came in and rescued nissan with renault buying almost 50% of the company so the deal is for them to sell down gradually. 28% of nissan and for each side to have an equal stake which really does go a long way i think to addressing this real

bugbear and nissan that sort of overshadowed relations between these two companies that is supposed to be in this alliance with mitsubishi motors for many, many years. it has been behind a lot of the hostility between the two sides and has held them back in terms of really, you know, addressing the challenges that automakers are seeing today. haidi: our managing editor for asia global business, emma o'brien, with the latest on the impacts -- advancements when it comes to advancing the science had let's get you a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. brian cohen is calling on alibaba to increase its share buybacks. in the wall street journal says his interest was built in the second half of last year, worth hundreds of millions of dollars. he has a strong following among meme stock investors. beijing is allowing didi to bring in a new users in 2021.

the widely anticipated decision is one of the clearest signs yet that xi jinping's administration sees the value of private sector support in jump starting an economy that has suffered under covid zero. coming up in the next hour, deutsche bank international private bank. stephanie tells us why she expect earnings to disappoint across certain sectors. do not miss our exclusive interview with the german chancellor, olaf scholz. europe's biggest economy is navigating a host of challenges. that conversation in new york. 10:30 in the evening if you are watching in hong kong. the market opens our next. this is bloomberg. -- are next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: this is "daybreak: asia."

we are counting down to the major market open. investors taken a bit of a breather but certainly there's a plethora of uncertainties to deal with. what shape does the china recovery look like? with the impact of covid zero in the chaotic reopening going into last year. and we will look at the rank of japan, markets really uncertain as to how to price in all the variable risks when it comes to the bank of japan, as we've seen with big moves when it comes to the yen and investors continuing to push that 10-year yield. annabelle: a lot for investors to be contending with at the opening of japan and korea. also the reopening of cash treasuries. u.s. markets were shut monday for martin luther king day. this is the outlook for the 10-year yield as become online

today. it's about the bank of japan what policymakers will do in that meeting wraps on wednesday. the vast majority of economists expecting no changes to the key rate but the big question is what will happen with the program, we've seen a lot of dysfunction so coming through into the bond market since that pivot back in december on the cap and again continuing to strengthen and heading back down to the 126 level which will be at strongest since may. in terms of the outlook for equities, the nikkei coming online a little bit high today, and we will be watching key sectors in that market today, including the old one. the nissan and renault alliance could be reworked at the end of this month. at the start of the trading day

we are little bit weaker here, watching the korean won because it is slightly softer against the greenback in the early part of trade today. wooding it in context, we have seen one of the best performances in asia and sitting around a nine month high. it's a little bit interesting as we do see that weakness coming through. there's that question, are we seeing the new year rally in the markets starting to stall. in australia we are looking a little bit weaker, being led lower by materials. iron ore also dropping for a second straight session, given that china wants to crackdown on pricing distortion in the sector. crude as well looking up, 1.5% today. trade assisting the outlook for demand for that sector but also awaiting the latest opec report. haidi: our next guest says

upcoming earnings may upset across materials as well as consumer discretionary sectors. when it comes to earnings expectations, there is some unevenness you're talking about here. where do you see upsides and where do you see further revisions lower? >> you mentioned the sick have potential for downside revisions, with the industrial sector having some material upside, but right now it looks like if we don't get any material downside surprises, the market will continue the risk on notion that we seen displayed since the beginning of the year already. haidi: in terms of the china

recovery, is it too late to get into this rally now? or are you seeing this recovery is spread out through the year with different entry points in terms of equities? >> know, it's not too late to get into the overall story for china coming back into the game. with a cautiously optimistic view to start with already last year we saw the market turning to pessimism around the national people's congress, so we had better letters to start scaling in, but now as we see a multi-quarter flow place, we can benefit from the reset we get.

we can see in the rearview mirror, it will display how cautious the consumer has been, getting further legs with the chinese yen coming up. haidi: what assumptions are you making about currencies, the trajectory of the u.s. dollar and how that plays into asia especially when it comes to emerging markets? >> the dollar has been a headwind for emerging markets and for some here in the region. it's coming to an end, we don't to complete turnaround, with the

u.s. rates coming closer, we're building on this and the u.s. dollar strength should not be a headwind anymore but a tailwind going forward as we go through the year. haidi: what about the impact on emerging markets? does it lift all boats in that space? >> yes, it is definitely a game changer for the region. there is great confidence around the outlook now that we are seeing, short-lived and shallower recessions in the u.s. , we can already see the indicators given us more

confidence. on the one hand we seen the north asian data around the export sector declining right now in taiwan, south korea and the china data, but fast-forward with the demand that comes in now from the china reopening and we see tourism data for instance jumping up in the region as it stands to benefit from that. haidi: we are just getting some breaking news when it comes to bain capital, the kochi set to retire according to reporting from the wall street journal. we are hearing that the co-chair is retiring after his 34 year career at the private equity firm. he will remain a senior advisor at the firm and continue to be

involved in portfolio companies in which he holds a board seat. the court managing compartment -- partners will continue to run bain capital. paul allen has the first word headlines. paul: u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen will hold a face-to-face meeting wednesday in zurich. the talks are aimed at strengthening economic and financial goals and coordination. it follows a november meeting between president biden and xi jinping. a report out on tuesday is expected to show how much china's economy was damaged by the end of the covid zero policy. the surgeon infections took a toll in december, according to a bloomberg survey, it should likely slow to 1.6%, less than half the rate of the third quarter.

atop saudi minister has said he is confident the country can diversify the economy away from oil. he says investors should think long term, citing the country's access to natural resources and the young population. >> we need to stop thinking in short-term, we need to think more long-term. what is good for saudi arabia is good for the region and the world. as i said earlier, the saudi growth story is a global one. paul: new police authorities have located both the black boxes from the -- nepalese authorities have recovered both black boxes from the plane crash which killed all 72 people on

board. forensic examiners are now working to identify all the bodies. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. haidi: looking at some of the movers across japan. we will get you look at some of those automakers, currently sitting in the green. still ahead, we will talk about forecast for the strong rebound of the china economy this year. there are differing views as to how it plays out for the economy. join us for that discussion. coming up, an update on these reports that chinese government agencies have a plan to provide

refinance support to developers. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: let's get back to annabelle in hong kong. annabelle: we had lines from toyota in terms of what they see for output in 2023. they think we will get back to those levels we saw pre-pandemic. their prediction is for 10.6 million vehicles to be produced over the coming 12 months. final shipments will be 10% lower they cannot procure certain parts. nissan plumbing 1.5%. local media reporting -- climbing 1.5%. we could end up dropping it state -- let's turn to crypto in

japan and korea. that's with the japanese government urging the world's regulators to treat crypto strictly as they do banks. there are already strict rules in japan for crypto players. those working with ftx japan could be able to withdraw their funds as soon as next month. in other movers today were keep an eye on we saw monthly machine-tool orders with strong exports, plumbing 1.2% today, raising prices by 10% domestically. and keeping an eye on what's happening across the construction and commodity space, aluminum link stocks in japan are looking a little

mixed. aluminum has hit its highest double since june, down to what is happening with demand, not only with the hawkish fed, but also with demand from china. haidi: chinese financial regulators -- plan to offers much as $24 billion and refund in the first quarter. talk us through this financing proposal. >> this is the latest in a bunch of proposals that have been made since last year to shore up this industry that is in a terrible slump, weighing on the economy. the latest proposal, $24 billion in financing, half of which would be provided by the people's bank of china and the other half is to be matched by

the four big asset management giants themselves which already have exposure to the property. combined is $24 billion. we have to stress that this is not a full on bailout, it's only for the high quality chinese developers. the firms that have defaulted on their debt will probably miss out. authorities really wanting to shore up the industry as a whole , to shore up the economy, so there's going to be a bifurcation with some companies getting this aid and others missing out. haidi: one of the beneficiaries would likely be evergrande. it sounds like the chaos just considers their -- continues there with the resignation of pwc. >> a thing evergrande is

unlikely to be on the list for receiving this aid. news came overnight, evergrande announced pricewaterhousecoopers has resigned. evergrande has failed to disclose financial statements that were due in march of last year and shares have been traded since then. this is another bad sign for evergrande which was laid on presenting its restructuring proposal and was supposed to produce a preliminary plan last july, delaying that until december. it faces another looming deadline in march with the hong kong court to hear another winding up hearing. the court has demanded concrete plans toward that restructuring be evident, that evergrande discloses some concrete restructuring proposal by the end. so the clock is really ticking.

so the resignation of pricewaterhousecoopers as its auditors is a bad sign for evergrande. haidi: russell ward their private investors remain on high alert for any further policy surprises from the bank of japan. let's get live to tokyo, kathleen hays joins us. there's a lot of nervousness because perhaps of this idea that the boj itself is in a pretty difficult place at the moment. kathleen: it certainly is, because you might have thought, and pretty much everyone expected until december 20 last year that governor kuroda could sit back and continue to hold on hit to his position that extraordinary stimulus is not time to back away from that, inflation has risen, but will his say hi?

there are still questions hanging over the japanese economy, recession is looming around the world. these are the kind of questions, but instead, as the bond market exploded with all kinds of pushing against the top of the yield curve control band at 0.25, all the bond purchases boj had to do often on, that is what open the door to the first step toward normalization, whatever you call it. now there are so many indications from traders and investors that whatever happens tomorrow, they are convinced, the steps have been haven it -- taken and they will continue, interest rate swaps are pricing in up to 1% or higher. sit back and relax, they are saying, we know it will be in the money at some point. same thing with dollar yen. one trader told me that is what he is doing. the rate is probably heading toward 120, so that's another

move that seems to be baked in the cake as the next governor comes in. people are seeing politics mixed in here. the prime minister has been talking about revising the accord that was put in place in 2013, and to get to 2% inflation as quick as you can, this is what has been driving this policy. for having to do record bond purchases two days in a row, do they need to do another tweet, or will governor kuroda say enough has been done for now, i've got one more meeting in march, my last day is april 8, and markets are just going to have to live with it. this is the question, it's too uncertain, hedge or position and see what happens.

whatever happens, it's going to be tons of questions. what if they don't move, why didn't you move? you said you were doing this tweak to improve bond market functioning. it was like sticking a stick into a beehive or an aunt hive and getting all stirred up. that's what the bond market kind of looks like. if they do make a move, how much more? are you paving the way for the next boj governor to walk down this path of normalization and not have to be the first want to take the most jarring steps, be the one to continue down the road, revise the accord and look at things like the negative rate as you move forward. an interesting question would be asking, are you happy to? ? see a stronger yen are you pleased with some of the things that are happening now?

but there are so many questions. one way or another, they move it is a big deal, they don't move, it is a big will. this is a winner for making headlines by the boj. if you are someone who likes to trade, you've got a chance to make some money, depending on what they do, right? haidi: kathleen hays there in tokyo for what is setting up to be a fascinating week of japan decisions. also available on the mobile and the bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize your settings to focus on the industries that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: the qatar investment authority is backing elon musk dissolution from twitter in the turmoil that's followed his takeover. one ceo told us about the firm's investment strategy. >> we are not focusing on only trophy assets. we had a -- we have a fundamental process, the

scenarios we see in the market are connected to the market. we know what is going on. whether it is a trophy asset or not a trope, we will deploy assets. if we find a trophy asset, that's fine, at the right valuation. we talked about twitter, and i feel like in the 8 -- laced -- in the last eight months, it is gone up and down, but we talk about elon musk every day. we are among a consortium of investors. in term of the plan that he has for the company, we trust his leadership in turning around the

company. we are committed to the plan that we have made to the management. >> have you asked him to tweet less? ? in the last eight months do you get involved in those calls? >> not really. we do not get involved to that extent. he has our trust and i'm quite sure that he would manage it very professionally. haidi: keep watching for more exclusive interviews with chief executives and policymakers as bloomberg keeps you up-to-date on davos throughout this week. an activist investor has taken a stake in alibaba and is calling on the chinese tech giant to increase its share buybacks.

cohen has a strong following among meme stock investors. beijing is allowing didi to bring in new users for the first time since 2021. it's one of the clearest signs that xi jinping is trying to jumpstart the country after covid. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's official, america. xfinity mobile is the fastest mobile service. and gives you unmatched savings with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 a line per month. that means you could save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. the fastest mobile service and major savings? can't argue with the facts. no wonder xfinity mobile is one of the fastest growing mobile services,

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haidi: we are just getting breaking news when it comes to

export numbers out of singapore at the moment. not all domestic exports falling in december. we were looking at expectations of a gain of .2%. a decline of over 20%, 20 point 6% is the contraction we are seeing for that year on your number there. when it comes to electronics, export stripping that out, some fairly volatile components and contraction of just about 18%. that is slightly better than we saw the previous year with the contraction of 20%. the seasonally adjusted month on month number also significantly steeper decline son had been expected. when it comes to china, we are seeing the export number deteriorating by just short of 32% year on year. those exports are contracting

with a much weaker than expected december, the government saying it is largely due to a higher base tan a year ago. certainly it is coming in atop when we are seeing global demand slowing and recession concerns globally weighing. annabelle: we are looking fairly mixed and it -- we are coming into a key period for earnings with u.s. banks and other such a report. in terms of what we are watching today, in the commodity space wti is off around 1.4% today. trade is focused on the demand outlook china, and copper slumping a little bit. aluminum is rising, the likes of goldman sachs upgrading their price forecast. we did have the dollar snapping

a three day rally. a signal of risk appetite and it does seem to be waning a little bit in the session today. the nikkei up around 1%, but it was the laggard in the session so perhaps investors are playing a little bit of catch-up to what we've seen globally over the past couple of weeks. the kospi up .2%, when you look at where we are, this has really been positive signs of funding stress and crack's appearing in the korean credit sector. we're seeing it on track now for its biggest monthly decline since 2000 nine. we've seen yields on three year aa rated that actually tumbling

64 basis points over the course of this month. also if you stick with that corporate debt, let's look at what's happening in china as well. we've seen a big rally that has taken the percentage trading under $.20 and shrinking it to around 4% in the bloomberg index of high-yield debt in china that is dominated by developers there. a few months ago we were around 25%. some of these measures are to try to support a key part of the economy in china is working. haidi: it's a wild card the global economy. the key economic debater were getting out of china over the next couple of hours will likely show growth after the abrupt end of covid zero. that is almost irrelevant when you look at the attention being

paid to the pace of the rebound in 2023. goldman sachs far higher than consensus, 7.2% growth by the time we get to the fourth quarter. great to have you both. the differences in terms of the pace of recovery is interesting to me. you see stronger growth in the first quarter, but are pretty consistent pace of growth getting through to the end of the year. i do see a slower pace coming out of the gate in the first quarter but rising to over 7% by the end of the year. talk us through your hypostasis in how you see this reopening play out and what recovery looks like. >> i have to say that were trying to be as faithful as

possible to a fast recovery. the numbers we have daily overt january, and january has just started. is still quite slow, whether it cement production, all of that is showing a weak recovery so far. we think it's going to speed up, especially in march. we are betting on a fast recovery for china after chinese new year. haidi: how do you end up at over 7%? what do you see as being the biggest contributor to getting to this level of economic activity again? >> there's a bit of mathematics involved here. we are expecting pretty bleak

growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. also similar to what alicia was saying, the second quarter we are expecting a sharp rebound, and that should put us to a seven point 4%. if you average the two years q4, last year was 1.1% and this year seven point 4%. the lower 2022, that sets the stage for more sharp rebound. haidi: we've seen them in some of the high-frequency data we've seen, but was it to receive covid waves across china it was being spread to more rural,

remote parts. >> in terms of mobility that we track every day, that bottomed around christmas time last year. ever since then, daily mobility measures have rebounded sharply. unfortunately because of chinese new year coming up, that's going to distort all the measures when you compare it year over year, because the chinese new year falls on different dates in different years. we will be in a bit of a blind place and we cannot read the data very closely other than how consumption and holiday traffic and spending that the government will report compared to last year's chinese new year. but by and large i do think you have to wait until chinese new year to get a clean reading of

how consumption and industrial activity are playing out. haidi: when you look at the drivers the government is relying on to stoke this economic recovery, they are reliant on local government financing, clearly the property sector is key. even this rejuvenation of growth in tech after the crackdown, how much of this do you think will have a band-aid affect, and do you have to issue returns, particularly when it comes to? how bad debt is? >> absolutely, to be frank, just a rebound -- think about it, we have an economy that was taught trust and mobility. therefore, why do more? the reason is that government

seem very worried about the lingering effects, the scarring of covid, and will people actually go out and spend? they see a big question mark on that, and they don't want to miss it. therefore they would rather do more than less. but that's mainly on the business sector. we already have sections getting close to double digit growth. they want others not to miss this opportunity of china's reopening. that shows the uncertainty about it. haidi: how much are you watching the long-term implications for the chinese economy? even pre-covid, the fact that the demographic is changing, a lot of these challenges they

will continue to grapple with even as they have a shorter rebound. >> you have to differentiate cyclical versus structural. however pessimistic you are last year, 10 covid policy is enacted, there should be recovery. we're expecting consumption, services, even some private investment if confidence can return, that should pick up as well. but structurally, you are right. people talk about the demographics and that will dictate how much policing we will need going down the road. that is the catchall worry of a lot of investors. and now we also have decoupling. u.s.-china, especially in the high-tech area, that will have some impact over the medium term in terms of productivity and efficiency in the chinese economy.

it's very important to differentiate cyclically, we are pretty constructive on the reopening impulse but structurally there are things to be concerned about. haidi: the domestic view or the patriotic view is that the u.s., western power, that allegiance or alliances trying to curtail the economic rise and success in china. if you look at the growth applications, there is a point. do you see the decoupling of politics having an impact on the way china can grow in the future? >> a couple of things. one, the strategic competition, that relationship is unlikely to change, despite that the market seems to be a little more relaxed after the g20 meeting with the u.s. and china. second, when we think about how does that translate to economic

impact? we are seeing supply chains and high tech area, there is more construction. so we try to modify what does that mean for growth. when we look at chip export control imposed by the u.s. on china in october, even in the next year or two the impact is minimal because you still have your computing system or cloud that is functioning. but in the 3-5-year horizon, there could be a meaningful impact on the china worldview, barring the possibility that china make some kind of breakthrough and can make its own high end chips. so i think the direction of travel is pretty much set, and we looked at the different types of channels, the new

geopolitical environment will have some impact overall. haidi: you take a look at the breadth of the other economies, is the positive spillover from the china reopening -- does it come at the expense of exported inflation risks too? >> with our numbers, no. we don't have anything higher than 8% in a single quarter. in other words, we are expecting a mild recovery for china. if you were to move to much higher growth, i could say that you would have a lot of inflation coming from china. export prices, we saw that during the run-up of the second half of 2021. it's part of the inflation we

are suffering. the west is not only about commodities. it's better for everybody, in my opinion, for china not to grow as fast in 2023. china's structural deceleration is just unavoidable. we hope we can do this without great inflation for the south and the world. haidi: so great having both of you here with us today. let's get you to paul allen in sydney with the first word headlines. paul: the u.k. and the e.u. have pledged to continue working toward post-brexit deals in northern ireland, but stop short of formally announcing the final phase of negotiations. last week the e.u. agreed to 2

-- two take down the database tracking goods, part of the wider u.k.-e.u. brexit deal. in a series of missteps and days of speculation, after a new year's eve video that seemed to make light of russia's war on ukraine. she was criticized for lack of military expertise. japan is urging the world's regulators to treat cryptocurrencies a strictly as they do banks. attributing the ftx collapse and -- to the absence of supervision. investors are poised to be able to withdraw their funds next month. the italian mafia's most wanted

boss has been caught, after 30 years on the run. police arrested him at a private clinic in palermo. he's been convicted for dozens of murders including those of two judges. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. on paul allen. this is bloomberg. haidi: china's tech crackdown takes a backseat for now. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: an actor investor has taken a stake in alibaba. catherine, this is really fascinating, in light of the news that we reported that chinese government entities were also taking these so-called golden shares in companies like alibaba. how do these two dynamics sit together? >> very interesting development indeed. it's a good thing for public shareholders, given that there is now an activist presence looking at -- overlooking

strategic decisions by the company from a public shareholder company -- perspective. haidi: were getting good news when it comes to didi. does the restoration -- is this highly symbolic and how far we've come toward the ending of this regulatory crackdown? >> yes, we continue to see the signs that the government will now be opening up to a technology sector, and more importantly, for the giants like alibaba, tencent, they will be able to look into operations without further disruptions from a regulations front. it is interesting as didi returns to the market, we will need to see how the delivery

services for the company goes and whether they will reinstate expansion plans. haidi: catherine lim there with the latest ondidi and alibaba as well. keep watching for more exclusive interviews, bloomberg will keep you up-to-date on the conversations taking place at the world economic forum in davos this week. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: onshore chinese stocks on entering a bull market, let's get a preview on the days trading action. where are we at in terms of sentiment, particularly when it comes to offshore versus onshore? >> i will say what a quick couple of months it has been in the bull market here in chinese stocks. it feels like we are still there

, maybe not in early innings but middle innings, for a baseball analogy. today there's news about all of the extra policy support given to the property sector for these strategically important companies to put them in a better financial state. news on further easing of the tech crackdown, i guess we are all expecting them to come back to apple stores. it feels like there's still a lot going on that's going to propel shares further even as we are nearing able market, as you say. haidi: quite a bit further, when you look at some of the latest forecasts. more than 10%, what are the

sectors we are looking at? are they? ? classic reopening type names >> absolutely. it's been nice to see a lot of turnaround, for consumer sectors, it's important to know that the projections and price targets are off their highs, we probably will not see these 2020 highs again. obviously tech and property are big ones. consumer is another one we are watching for a probably bumpy reopening and the gdp figures out of china are not the strongest yet. as those improve, we will see

consumption and the consumer sectors take off. haidi: the latest look at the china equity rally. china's approval of didi reliance on the alibaba news as well, developer stocks also in focus, bad debt management companies plan to offer as much as 20 $8 billion of refinancing support to high-quality chinese developers. that is it for "daybreak: asia." ♪

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yvonne: 9:00 a.m. in beijing and hong kong.