>> good morning. i am tom mackenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. jay powell says more hikes are coming, but stocks and bonds jump as the fed signals and the end may be insight. meta-sores after hours as mark zuckerberg's vow of efficiency transforms sentiment. apple, alphabet, and amazon, report later in europe, race yourselves or a flood in -- plus, the adani stock accelerates nursing the indian billionaire to pull a record equity offering. we are crossing the terminal now, deutsche bank, fourth-quarter, fixed income and currency sales and trading revenue 1.5 billion euros that was amiss versus the estimates of 1.6 billion euros. that is the redhead crossing on

deutsche bank. fourth-quarter fic sales and trading revenue coming in at 1.5 billion euros. the estimates for 1.6 billion. we know there was a focus on the fixed income trading part of this business. and also, the outlook for the year, how they are doing in terms of net interest rates. we bring you that. net income from a 1.8 billion versus 145 million. year on year for the first quarter. one point 8 billion euros versus 145 million. not interest expenses coming in at 5.1 9 billion versus estimates of 4.9 billion. not interest expenses coming in higher than the estimates. deutsche bank opposing a four-year dividend of zero 30. $.30 per share in line with the estimates fourth-quarter pretax profit coming in below the estimates. pretax coming in at 775 million

euros. the estimates have been for 1.25 billion. a pretty decent mix in terms of pretax profits net revenue coming in at 6.3 2 billion. we are going to be speaking to a lineup of executives and bring you more earnings throughout the hour. the cfos of ing, and dws join us, plus, the ceos of shall, do not miss those interviews right here on bloomberg tv. let's check in with the data. a major day in terms of what we heard from fed chair. the ripples across these markets risk on. that mood continues even after the fed chair forecast another potentially two interest-rate hikes, stepping down from 50 basis points to 25. it was a forceful pushback.

what sounded like a more optimistic fed chair in terms of the battle against inflation markets across asia are going to 0.6%. uterus in europe by 0.7%. -- yields in europe. you saw double digit moves in those yields yesterday on the back of that commentary from jay powell. risk on bonds being bid, money flowing in, equities gaining. that's now move to the details. a massive day for central banks. rick tv on valerie tytel is on hand. none other than daybreak anchor, is cap -- taking a brief break. slowing the pace of tightening, raising u.s. rates by 25 basis points.

central bank acknowledge progress on inflation but warned of a couple more hikes on the cards. pushback to markets. he was asked on initial conditions loosening, here is what he said. >> we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to sustain monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time. tom: and valerie has been on hand, the details and the response from jay powell. really fascinating. your reaction to the market reaction, and the fact that there was no aggressive pushback on the financial conditions. valerie: that was the first question and stocked -- stocks ripped right after he answered it. he did not seem bothered, he took a more long-term view saying the trend has been for financial conditions to tighten. he was very dismissive of the recent loosening we have seen in

january and december. also no reaffirmation of those hawkish december dots. that is another thing the market was looking for. he was asked about causing. it wasn't a flat out now. he reiterated they are highly data dependent, the disinflation process has begun, and calling the fallen inflation gratifying, welcome, and encouraging. there was no big back on cuts, the main reason why the market has it priced in is because they have a more rosy view on inflation. he said, if it was their own inflation path, the policy path would look different, too. we have the revised markets coming up. tom: in the base case, it seems, there will be a soft landing. he doesn't see it deep damage to the labor market. growth will slow, but you can get to a goldilocks scenario.

over? valerie: we have the friday payroll report, which will be very important as he stressed this data dependency. we also have powell speaking next week in washington, and then at the next cpi report is on valentine's day. it will ruin my valentine's celebration because i will be glued to my bloomberg screen. tom: thank you very much. valerie tytel. the european central bank meets in frankfurt today for the first policy decision of 2023 for the europe central bank. the 50 basis hike, all that fully priced in. we go to maria who is outside the ecb. good morning. it almost feels like the market is already looking ahead to march. can we expect today? maria: it is not a lot of mystery this morning in frankfurt. the weather is expected windy

and rain and 50 basis points clearly on the table, especially if we go back to december. the market was guided and has fed grew so strongly, to me, we should stress, nothing is official until she announces it, that is what the market has priced in. to me, what is interesting about this meeting, the forward-looking indicators, particularly when you look to march. this will be 50 basis points back-to-back or actually, there are more new ones that feedthrough. tom: arguably, the press conference itself was more important than the decision itself. what exactly are you watching out for? you are listing out maybe for a bit of nuance, madam lagarde, and the trajectory. maria: absolutely. that will be the key in this

question. it has been hammered and repeated throughout that press conference. to me, this is what i find particularly interesting about today, are we going to get a repetition and reintegration of that gap back in december? it was madame saying we are not going to pivot. we need to tackle inflation. or leave more leeway going in to march. there will be a soft signal? overall, we have had a whole string of data this week. you know what the narrative is. we have seen the inflation come down. a lot of it is pegged to energy. when you look at the economy, the jury is fill out. do we get a recession or will he actually escape it? that will be interesting overall, how do we see the european economy moving forward? tom: how has madam lagarde

involved, knowing that data from december. maria tadeo, outside the ecb. thank you. be filed that -- be sure to follow the decision here on bloomberg. it is said to come at 1:50 p.m.. the bank of england is also expected to announce its 10th consecutive rate hike after the monetary policy committee meets later today. markets will also look to andrew bailey's economic outlook and whether he will signal a shallower recession than previously forecast. joining us is dani burger who is covering the boe. i feel like a bit of an imposter on your show. dani: i love how you can't get rid of me. here i am, refusing to leave. tom: you are not giving up too much territory. what are you looking for from the boe? dani: a bunch of central banks have done adjusted --

downshifted. they really started this tightening cycle, it is really not clear that today is the day to do that. core inflation is still sticky, private wage growth is around 7.2. we are likely to get an upgrade. none of that is consistent with getting inflation back down to 2%. we will get a 50 basis point hike, the mpc is more divided than ever. we have had three past meetings where they has been a three-way split. tom: a deep division amongst the mpc, very different than the fed. that decision is coming later today, we will have live coverage on the decision at 12:00 p.m. u.k. time. special coverage of the press conference at 12:30 p.m.. you can watch that on ib+tv . analysis from dani burger

throughout that. at 4:00, we will bring you are interview with andrew bailey. coming up, we will speak to the ceo of a's biggest energy company. our interview with iom of the ceo, that is next.

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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe". austria's biggest energy company, though m.v.p., has reported clean operating profit that missed the average analysts estimate. they are also set to be exploring the sale of some international oil and gas assets as the company pushes ahead with its long-term goal to pull back from upstream production. let's get some analysis and reaction from the company's ceo, alfred stern.

your reaction to these earnings, how it positions the business for the year ahead? alfred: good morning. the earnings last year were really fantastic. we had a record year at oh and the oh and the --omv. we have capital close to 10 billion euro. it was a really fantastic year for us. we did see in the fourth quarter, it is likely soft development. but in total, the year was really fantastic. tom: you touched on the dividend policy, a lot of focus on the new framework around shareholders. what can shareholders expect? what can investors inspect -- expect? alfred: we have updated our

dividend policy in addition to our regular progressive dividend that we want to increase every year, we have added a special dividend that we will pay on good market conditions like we found them in 2020. we -- the management will propose a regular dividend for 2022 of two euros 80. that is an increase of our progressive dividend compared to last year. it is a record regular dividend. on top of this already your last year, we have announced that we will also propose a special dividend of two euros 25. e 505 is the highest dividend we would ever pay -- have ever paid . tom: this is the first where we have had that retroactive tax

factored in. how is that windfall tax? how is that impacting your investment in the downstream part of the business? alfred: to describe here this solidarity contribution that is being asked, it is really focused on the national activities of the company. in austria, we are being taxed on the austrian activities, which is less than 7% of our operating results, which means that our current estimate, we will have to pay about 90 million euros. tom: we have had that report, you and the team potentially looking at sales of some parts of the business, exporting the sale of the international oil and gas assetsy. cank in these parts of the business? alfred: the announcement of our

strategy during the capital markets last year, what we said is that we we want active portfolio review also following the assets. at the moment what we want to make sure is that we always have optimized portfolio of emv assets in that context, and we are always looking at how we can do this optimization? tom: alfred stern, thank you for your time, we do appreciate it. coming up, ing income is beating estimates as the chairman is stepping down. this is bloomberg. ♪

skate welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe".

omg has reported net income that beat estimates. the dutch bank also announcing that its chairman has decided to step down. joining us is ing's cfo. thank you for joining us this morning. congratulations on the earnings. clearly a benefit in terms of net interest income. if you would expect that to continue into 2023? tanate: thank you very much, tom. it has been an exceptional year from on operating environment that has been very difficult. difficult contacts, we are very pleased with the results that were recorded into four -- q4. net interest income is up 17% year on year. that has been a big driving force in terms of the strong profitability we have seen along with cost discipline and very modest responses in the quarters. all in all, very robust results.

tom: a sweet spot in terms of the rates that you charge on loans and the rates you are offering on deposits at how long do you think that continues? are you under pressure to increase what you are seeing? tanate: i think the fact that the ecb will have another announced rate hike, i expected 50 basis points today and continued rising rates, means that our deposit margin is expected to continue to rise in the coming read. at the same time, we see that loan margin is somewhat more compressed than what we have seen in the past. we still do expect quite strong evolution of our income. i have given market guidance today that we are expecting in 2023 by at least 10%. that is the indication we see. tom: do you feel pressure or competition to increase the rates on deposits?

tanate: it is something that is in 2022 in q4 is the fact that system deposit continued to rise for ing. we have seen more deposits coming into the bank in q4 to the tune of 10 million euros. that rising deposit means that we watch the competition increasing deposit rates carefully and we make sure that we are competitive in terms of providing the right deposit rates to our customers. so far, the rising rates like the ecb has been sharper than the deposits to customers. tom: you announced a buyback in q3, how much do you feel you have to return cash to shareholders? tanate: we just completed 1.5 billion euros share buyback in december. because of this rising profit our capital has increased to

14.5%. we are in constructive dialogue with our regulators about how capital management plans for 2023, but we have nothing to report at doesn't. we expect to give investors an update at the end of q1. tom: are you seeing any distress amongst your borrowers who are facing these high rate, the inflation rate? are you starting to see that? tanate: that has been a highlight for us in q4, our nonperforming loan ratio remains low. i think one of the best ratios among european peers. the economies, i think that is driven by the much a strong credit management by ing but also the fact that unemployment levels in europe has remained very low. that unemployment means that products like consumer loans and mortgages have remained very [indiscernible].

we don't see big signs of a deterioration in terms of the credit during the course of q or. tom: the other announcement on the news line coming through from ing is the fact that hans wyatt is set to retire. the company has described this is for personal reasons. where are you in finding a successor? tanate: he has been nature for us for 2017. we have loved having him as our chairman. finding a successor is ongoing, but hans will be here into the second half of this year. so we will have a smooth transition. we can't say anything more about that at the present time. tom: ing cfo on the back of those results. it was a beach for ing, we appreciate your time on a busy day for you. deutsche bank

misses estimates as the lender's streak of market share gains in training snapped in the final quarter. do not miss our conversation with the cfo, james. that has been a big focus on the fixed income part of business, and to what extent they continue to outstrip the rivals on wall street when it comes to training? net interest income's will be part of the conversation as well. we bring you that interview. this is bloomberg. ♪ (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss

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>> this is "bloomberg daybreak

europe." these are the stories that that your agenda. jay powell says more hikes are coming but stocks jump as the fed signals an end may be in sight. boe and ecb day. metamorphosis. meta soar ass mark zuckerberg's vow of efficiency -- brace yourself for earnings and interviews. plus the adani stock and bond rout is accelerating forcing the beleaguered indian billionaire to pull a record equity offering. it is risk on. jay powell said an additional couple hikes are likely from the federal reserve. they stepped down from 50 basis points to 25. he also said it is not likely a rate hike will come through in 2023 of the economy performs as expected. despite that, the rally around

sentiment continues. it was the lack of pushback on the loosening of the financial conditions, and is this a fed that wants the market to be second-guessing itself? asia and the benchmark gaining 0.5%. euro-dollar stronger by 0.2% on the back of dollar softness, two-year at 410 after yields moved in by double digits yesterday. let's get to the earnings story. deutsche bank coming with earnings that missed. manus cranny has been speaking to the lender's cfo. >> the fourth quarter is a milestone for us. we have gone through a transformation we announced in july of 2019 and, having delivered on our promises and really rejuvenated the company. i feel great about that and the finish to the year.

against our guidance for the fourth quarter, we are probably short on revenues. mostly in the investment bank. but against what was a record fourth quarter, -- business nonetheless. a little froth and the end of the year went away. we are pleased with performance and we do not see that as a bound on 2023. >> are you confident you will hit 28? >> we are hopeful. interest rates lift us by 900 million euros, just that alone. manus: what could we get with rates continuing to rise in europe? what is realistic guidance? >> 28 to 29. we feel solid on the right part

of the guidance. the momentum in the business and terms of new assets, the strength of the franchise gives us confidence. manus: you said it is the huge transformation. return on equity well above target. the market is going to want to know additional guidance on buybacks. 8 billion through 2025. is that open to adjustment higher? >> not at all. we are reconfirming our dividend and distribution path. we have committed to an 8 billion return. we are not announcing a repurchase this morning. we feel it is too early in the year to do that. there is still a lot of uncertainty. we are looking to resolve model increases.

we think until we have clarity, it is more prudent to hold off and revisit it later. manus: let's look into fic. i have you down as light on the numbers. i have you at nine quarters of growth. what gave in the fourth quarter? >> there is a slowdown in late november and december. we are conservative on some valuations. altogether that took the froth off against what was a record quarter and a record year. 8.9 billion revenues in 2022, we are thrilled. a little of the froth coming off at the end of the year is something we are properly comfortable with. manus: did you get credit suisse flow? did you pick up business? >> it is not visible to us if

business is to us from competitors. we are competing against all of our competitors in the marketplace. we think we have the franchise to do that. manus: 2023, you are comfortable with the forward curves. when you look at rates volatility, last year the u.k. imploded. how do you see volatility in 2023? do you think it's going to be more china, japan yield curve control explosion? is that what i should focus on? >> it was a remarkable year for volatility. there was some direction to the market. as you also know, there was disjointed moves in the market. a number of different times. it was not just sterling. i would expect this year to see moderation.

as you say, we don't rule out that there are going to be more discontinuities. the transition of leadership for the bank of japan. >> do you see a depth charge for volatility? everyone is saying that. >> we will see. i don't know if that is a catalyst for volatility. with the extent of moves that have taken place, it is actually surprising markets have absorbed that and managed through that volatility and that is norman's seachange we have seen -- that enormous seachange we have seen without more discontinuous markets. we cannot rule out that the markets remain fragile. tom: bloomberg's manus cranny speaking to deutsche bank's cfo. now of course it is a huge day for central banks. valerie ty tell is on hand to

discuss the fed slowdown. we have the ecb decision from frankfurt. and dani burger is taking a brief break, a sojourn from the show to cover the boe rate decision. the fed slowing the pace of tightening, raising u.s. rates as expected, the central bank acknowledged process on inflation -- progress on inflation but warned of a couple more hikes. jay powell's pushback was notably absent. >> our focus is not on short-term moves but sustained changes to broader financial conditions. it is our judgment we are not yet sufficiently restrictive policy stance. tom: was that key for these markets? the lack of aggressive pushback in terms of financial conditions loosening from jay powell and

the absorption of that view that disinflation is starting to embed itself? >> it was the first question asked to him and he did not seem bothered by the loosening of financial conditions. instead he took a long-term view that financial conditions overall have tightened. he dismissed the loosening we have seen. to me into markets, that opened the door for march being a possible pause. he said other things about inflation saying the disinflation we have seen is welcome, gratifying, encouraging. especially as we have not seen any weakness in the labor market yet we are seeing inflation fall. he also did not reaffirm december's dots, those hawkish dots. and when asked about if pausing was discussed, it was not a flat out no lick previously. -- like previously.

to me this is a huge key now that the fed is so data dependent, we only need one really weak labor market print in order for them to really be open to a pause in march. tom: what are the data sets? what are the potential catalysts for these markets? >> we have two labor market reports before march. the next one comes on friday. that's going to be key to watch. it's notable that powell speaks next week. will he be happy with the market absorption of his message or will there be any pushback? february 14 it is not valentine's day, it is inflation print today. mark your calendars. that will be a big one for the fed. tom: important of course around inflation. throw out the roses. the you -- european central bank meets today with a 50 basis point hike all but

fully priced in by the markets. maria tadeo is of course outside the ecb for us. it almost feels like the market has baked this in. what they want to focus on is what we are going to hear from -- >> you could argue there is no super -- no suspense, no mystery. when you look at what the market has done, essentially it is baked it in -- bake it in. you remember the press conference in december that guided markets to a 50 basis point hike in february. nonetheless we are here for a reason. nothing is official until the ecb announces that decision. but also the press conference that will follow. that is the zeitgeist for the markets.

what are the forward-looking indicators we will get especially when it comes to the march decision? tom: how are you thinking about the divisions? we have seen those percolate out to the public. the divisions within the governing council as you zero in on this commentary. >> that is why her language will be so key here. the focus especially is are we going to get a repetition of 2.0 back in december? lagarde said the job is not done and this is a single mandate central bank. or actually there will be more news that could open up the news. is it 50 basis points back to back or come march you might get a softer surprise? we have had a monster week in terms of data. the picture is cloudy.

there is debate as to whether a recession will happen or not. when you look at inflation, that is what the central bank is focused on. we have seen headline inflation come down but a lot of that was pegged to energy. court inflation seems to be stickier than expected -- core inflation seems to be stickier than expected. tom: maria tadeo outside the central bank in frankfurt. be sure to follow the ecb decision on bloomberg. a decision due out 1:15 u.k. time. the analysis of course from maria tadeo. the bank is expected to announce its 10th consecutive rate hike after the monetary policy committee meets later today. joining us now is dani burger. we will bring out the big guns for the boe. what are you going to be focused on?

norway, australia, they have all downshifted. is the boe going to do the same? >> it is remarkable what the fed, what the ecb is going to do is so certain. there is less certainty with the boe. you would think they would be able to downshift because they were one of the first to get ahead of the cycle. instead what we have been presented with since the last meeting are signs we are nowhere near close to getting to their 2% target. core inflation is sticky. wage growth is at 7.2%. they are going to give their quarterly review today. it is likely to show an upgrade to growth. all of that suggests a boe that is going to have to hike 50 basis points. 80% odds priced in. some policy members think the risk is over tightening.

other think it is under tightening and they will have to do a second-rate height cycle if they don't continue to do big moves now. tom: the three way split. we will see if that holds. dani burger covering the boe. we are going to have coverage, the press conference 12:30 p.m. u.k. time. terminal users can watch that on tv by choosing the europe tv channel. that 4:00 p.m. we are going to bring you our interview with the boe governor andrew bailey. coming up, swiss industrial giant abb sees order growth easing this year. the ceo is going to join me next to discuss the companies latest earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪ introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you.

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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." abb's fourth-quarter operating ebita missed estimates. the swiss industrial giant expects revenue to slow after customer orders piled up in response to supply chain disruptions. joining me now is abb ceo bjoern rosengren. the comparables of course are challenging but you are seeing a slowdown in terms of the order demand. what are the factors? is it because customers are still working through inventories? or is it customers turning more cautious in a slower growth environment? >> thank you for having me on the show. it is more normalization. it has been quite dramatic, growth during the beginning of the year. i think now we are coming up to 2% growth in comparable numbers which is quite good.

that keeps 18% growth for the year. it is still big numbers. tom: talk to us about supply chains and where you are in terms of working through that block of orders. when do you clear that out? >> the first half of the year was challenging for us and many other companies. it is easing up the second half and as you saw the last quarter, revenues were up 60%, which is a good number. slowly we are back on huge orders on hand we have at the moment. we have plenty of work to do during the coming year. tom: are we moving from a world of chip shortages to chip inventories? >> from a supply chain

perspective i think yes, it is normalized at the moment. more capacity in factories and being able to deliver placed orders during the year. tom: you were successful last year at pricing or passing on the costs to customers. does the pricing become more complex in this environment? how confident are you about those margins? >> we saw last year a lot of price increases, from logistic cost to different kinds of minerals and so on. that of course needed to be compensated for. now we see somewhat easing up. we do expect to have less inflation during the year to come. meaning of course also less when it comes to price increases. tom: margins missed in the

most recent quarter but you are setting a target of 15% going forward. what gives you confidence you can get there? >> when we set our new strategy in 2020, our target was 2023 to reach 15% ebita margin. as you see, we managed to do that a year ahead. we also feel comfortable even though that can be tough at times during the year, due to the order book we have. we feel very comfortable to be able to deliver in line above 15%. >> i have seen your robotic arms in place in factories across china. how much demand do you expect from that country given the reopening? >> we can say that during the quarter china was slower, especially at the end of the quarter. going forward -- we are

cautiously optimistic of course, but we think china could surprise on the positive way. the same way as we see the rest of the world opening up after covid. that said, a little bit to see. it is a huge, important market. 50% of all orders in the world are china. it is an important one. we just also opened our huge modern factory there. we are optimistic about china. we will see how that will work out during the year. tom: you've been streamlining the business with the sale of assets. talk to us about the electric car charging division recently valued at 2.6 billion u.s. dollars. is an ipo happening this year? >> our strategy is to make an ipo, but the markets are not really constructive enough.

i think we were pretty clear after q2. so we say there is no hurry. on the other hand, we had the opportunity here to be joined by numerous exciting investors who did the product placement of 525 million u.s. dollars. and for 20% of the company. i think that actually helps us a lot. we are today treating that business with a separate board and we are reporting it separately going forward. it is a little bit of preparation for an ipo which might happen this year, but -- or next year. but there is no hurry at the moment. tom: sounds like you are still waiting for market conditions to improve on the back of that. could be this year, the ipo on electric car division, could be next year. thank you for joining us, abb

ceo bjoern rosengren. coming up, adani tries to assuage investor concerns following the axing of his flagship companies record chair sale. markets would suggest they are yet to be convinced. we bring you the details. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get back to the crisis engulfing the adani group. it is deepening with citigroup's wealth unit halting margin loans on the indian companies securities. this after adani's company pulled its $2.4 billion share offer. joining us now, sanjai, who has

been following all of this. what do investors need to know? >> investors are keen to know what happened for the dramatic u-turn last night. you have 1.3 times subscription. last night they did a dramatic u-turn and called off citing protecting invested businesses. investors are waiting to understand what led to the thing, bankers like credit suisse and citibank stopped taking margin calls. financial institutions have asked them to do so because of the stock route. is there any external reason? the investor community are keen to understand what is happening. meanwhile the adani group chairman came on television and

on video to say they are going to review the market strategy for the group. tom: let's fold two questions into one. what are we watching for going forward? they failed so far to calm these markets. how important given the context is this company, is this conglomerate, to india's growth prospects? >> originally adani said this is not just an attack against adani, it is against india. but globally investors would want to know how robust is india's regulation and laws and how great is the landscape, conducive for investment as well. these questions will have to be answered. the government will have to step in.

give a message to the global community saying india has a robust regulatory system and laws in place to make sure it is a great place to invest. tom: bloomberg's p r sanjai with context on the adani travails. coming up plenty more on the earnings front. the cfo of deutsche bank's asset management arm joins us, plus the ceos of julius baer, roche, and shall along with santander's chairman. do not miss these interviews. up next, "bloomberg markets europe." ♪

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