>> eight compared i'm john hyland with the first word in a spirit some of the most powerful earthquakes indicates at the middle east today. according to the associated press, more than 23 hunter people have died in turkey and syria. it was a 7.7 magnitude. the second quake hit the southeastern part of turkey and measured 7.5. it halted crude oil exports to a regional area. china's explanation for a vehicle seen over u.s. military sites that the biden and melds -- biden administration has rejected.

it will "not pose any threat to any country and all country's." they understand this." the attack also hit canada and the u.s., and a note after the meeting of top officials on the attack, italy's government says no evidence has emerged that leads to aggression by a state actor or hostile state. the u.s. is preparing to ramp up the pressure on russia, as the one-year mark of the invasion of ukraine approaches. bloomberg has learned the biden administration plans to impose a 200% tariff on russian-made aluminum that would effectively and u.s. imports from russia. that could be imposed this week. president biden will test is 2024 campaign message on tuesday when he delivers his state of the union address. although biden has not officially announced his reelection campaign, he began the year using a sharper tone against republicans in a series of campaign style events. his address of congress is to

tout his achievements and contrast himself with his opponents. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm john hyland. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome to bloomberg markets. kriti: let's dive right in. we have a sell of on our hands in the equity market and bond market. take a look at this read on the screen. you are seeing some pressure down about 0.6%. the bond market to me is the bigger move. all eyes on chairman powell tomorrow, speaking exclusively with david remiss died over and washington, d.c. take a look at what the bond market is doing. it is flying high, up about 10 or 11 basis points on the 10-year yield. still within a key trading range.

steve parker joins us from j.p. morgan in just a few moments. the dollar stronger as well, stronger by about 0.7% on the bloomberg dollar index, not really getting in the way of crude. trading with about a 73 handle, up about seven tents of 1%. jon: we have these constant themes, whether it is geopolitics or deal news, earnings, some of the momentum stories of the year. we are watching all of those today. i will start with the story of geopolitics. john hyland just highlighting the latest on the china-u.s. story paired we have seen the pressure prior technology stocks from china listed in new york today. alibaba down right now. track ts $17 billion bid story. newmont down on that today. on the profit side for a company like tyson, a reminder that these days, consumers have to make tough choices on which meet to buy, given the inflationary effects these days.

tyson input costs ultimately make that a more challenging profit story. we saw that in their profit picture. video was up earlier. it has dipped lower right now. that is the momentum story of the year. we have seen a huge appetite over the last few weeks in a high -- in ai-related stocks. kriti: we will stick with that, because dell is the latest tech company to announce massive tax cuts. it makes up about 5% of global workforce. you are seeing shares of -- down off that. ed ludlow joins us right now with a little bit more. usually when we see these kinds of layoffs, we don't really see a selloff, we see a reward by the market. what's going on here? ed: the limited sell side reaction we have had to this points out from an opec's perspective, this is good for dell. what the market is reading into is what it tells us about the

health of the end market. go back to november, when dell reported its earnings for the period ending october 28. it did give a week forecast based on the idea that pc demand has continued to drop off. it is 55% of dell's revenue paired what we know from third-party data is that pc shipments did fall sharply in the final three months of 2022. dell was the biggest hit. now is a risk assessment of how long that downturn in the market will go for. we are pushing expectations back, at least from a timeline perspective. jon: expectations of the messaging earlier. you were recapping what we heard from a number of technology companies during earnings season. you have mark supper berg's -- mark zuckerberg's error of efficiency, really setting a new tone for 2023. ed: it's about cutting costs and

being leaner. i think what a lot of the market is cheering, when we get market herald -- market headlines, you can make a more significant boost to your bottom line only come out of the downturn. that was starting the -- certainly the fighting talk from dell and the internal memo seen by bloomberg. by acting now, they will be prepared when that demand returns. it is interesting because dell's headcount actually peaked in january 20 20, prior to the pandemic era. a lot of the story around layoffs across the technology sector has been on doing some of the bloat, because they hired like crazy during the pandemic to meet what was a demand spike while we were all at home. that demand has fallen away. dell is a little unusual in the sense that, if you look at headcount from january 2020 to present day, it had been coming down a little. part of that is attrition, part

of it is the vmware situation. now, if you look at the yellow bar on the right-hand side of your screen, when these cuts, 6600 or so, are done, that is what dell will look like. kriti: fascinating. ed ludlow putting that on perspective for us. the new tech, if you will, cut the old guard with hp. to his point, it all comes down to the labor market, how that squares with what the federal reserve is doing, what the eco-data is suggesting. how do you trade this? >> i was going to call it narrative tennis. i think there are, broadly speaking, two views of the world. data is supportive of one versus the other. we go back and forth. i am a little skeptical still as to the extent of the robustness of the labor market, because you have seen 50 and sub-50 in the an opponent -- in the component of employment that raises some

questions. as an investor, i cannot really bet the farm on that here today. the prevailing narrative does have some very recent data to support it. jon: let's get some more perspective on that. stephen parker joining us now from jp morgan, where he serves as head of advisory solutions. steve, the story of table tennis, ping-pong, should we be focusing more on the bull-bear debate because we have a lot of economic data points we can look at? but it really feels like there are these diverging views out there. steve: i think there's a lot of diverging views out there, which is what makes it exciting for active managers. what i think we are in poor right now is the fact that we came into this year with sentiment probably being extremely negative. lots of cash on balance sheets and portfolios, investor sentiment really low. what we have seen is the worst case scenario run inflation has not played out. we are seeing progress there and

an eventual end to the fed hiking cycle, which i think, and our view, leads us to a market where, 12 months from now, stocks are higher, rates are lower. a good thing, but in the interim, we are battling with some of the questions around fundamentals, the economy. we do expect a slowdown, and that means volatility in the near-term. kriti: higher at the end of 12 months, but is it a straight shot up? how much volatility are we seeing, what kind of prices are we thing out? stephen: no, i definitely don't think it is a straight shot at. the rally to start the year was what we expected in terms of returns for the whole of 2023. i think you should expect to be in a world where 5% to 7% moves up and down are not abnormal. that's why it is really important to, one, stay import -- stay invested and diversified. number two, stay ready to go. jon: let's take earnings season as a case study here.

what was your reaction? we just alluded to what is going on intact. we have been covering tyson today. how did you feel about the quality of the earnings? stephen: our expectation is that earning estimates for this year are still too high. we think the markets already appreciate that. a lot of the companies that have surprised to the downside have actually seen decent reactions from the stock, which tells you this is really a story about valuations and sentiment. i think what we have to focus on from the fundamental perspective is not so much what happens over the next quarter or two, because we generally expect to slow down and a decline in earnings expectations. it is really, what is the message for 2024 and are you going to start seeing through the potential slowdown the impact of what we think are eventually going to be easing monetary policy and a better outlook for the year ahead? june kriti: what about the risks and another pop in inflation? it seems like we are seeing early signs of that. economies don't perhaps mirror

the u.s., like spain or brazil, we have seen that uptick in inflation. if we are staring at a commodity market that could still go higher, as we talk about china reopening, isn't that something that kind of pokes a whole in the entire disinflationary argument? stephen: we don't see that is being graded. i did with china reopening, a lot of the focus will be around the consumer rather than a big spender on infrastructure. i think that's probably going to be supportive of energy prices, because you are seeing a lot of people who've been waiting to travel for a very long time. generally speaking, we are not expecting a huge move in commodities. you look at goods more broadly, you look at housing. i think those signs and trends are going to continue to move in the right direction. the big question, and where there is uncertainty around the inflation story, is really around wages. with the labor market as tight as it is, i think that is the last piece, the last holdout we are looking forward to seeing, to get confirmation the tightening cycle is likely coming to an end. kriti: before -- jon: before we

wrap things up, can i get a general take away from of enthusiasm we saw in the beaten up technology sector to start this year? obviously, people wondered if that would hold the earnings season. we have still seen some gains continued into february, even though we are looking at a pullback today. stephen: we are more cautious on the secular growth names that were the big winners last year. i think this was a reaction to the fact that people had gotten very negative, and a realization that interest rates probably had peaked in we're going to come down. that is all beastly good for growth stocks. our preference now, we talk about being patient and selective. we want to look for markets where there are still attractive valuation components. we're looking at things like european equities and mid-cap and small-cap companies in the u.s., rather than going back to the growth trade. kriti: certainly something to keep an eye on. stephen parker, thank you as always for your time. coming up, we will get more insight from the etf exchange

conference. larry berman, cio of etf capital management joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ what will you do? will you make something better? create something new? our dell technologies advisors can provide you with the tools and expertise you need to bring out the innovator in you.

jon: this is bloomberg markets.

i am jon erlichman, with kriti gupta. we were talking about the bull-bear debate on inflation. today, we have also been covering the etf exchange conference in miami. it is the largest event for the $10 trillion cryptocurrency. larry berman, the cio if etf capital management. you have a show here on bloomberg as well. but this idea of where inflation goes and whether it lingers, is that influencing the conversation they are? larry: i think so. it certainly is from islands. last year was an example of where your traditional 60-40 portfolio did not deliver on its profit -- on its promise. it never had the chance. going back a couple years, interest rates came close to zero just about everywhere in the world. so, i think on a going forward basis, perhaps for the next five

years to 10 years, alternative types of returns, versus traditional 60/40, especially if inflation is going to prove to be sticky and bonds aren't going to give investors the protection they once did when euros waller -- when it yields were much higher once upon a time ago. kriti: with the federal reserve driving the narrative, it feels like a lot of options are pretty binary when it comes specifically to the bond market. i have to ask about the emergence or death of the manic etf's, things like the trade war, the war in ukraine. is that an investing style that is still in vogue right now? larry: last year, to start the year, we were overweight in international and emerging markets. what we felt was extreme valuation largely coming from the u.s. technology and the indexes, then the war happened. it was supposed to last a couple of weeks. now, we are a year into it. it is a challenge.

in the last quarter, international exposures have come back pretty significantly. tactical asset allocation using etf's is something that i have been doing for the better part of 15 years now. i think there is still a lot of merit in that. the challenge i have is with protections side. ith protections side. i think increasingly, we need to look for alternative types of returns for investors, versus traditional fixed income. jon: meanwhile, just building on that, larry, what about the demand for dividend or payers right now and how that plays into the etf landscape? larry: a good point. internationally, the dividend pay ratio is way higher. you are looking at about one hundred basis point pickup internationally versus the s&p 500 technology in general under 1%, small caps in general under

1% in the u.s. in general. if you want a higher yield than your portfolio, you have to look internationally. that team makes sense a lot. i love the enhancement of option overlays not only for tech portfolios and buffer them on the downside, but to deliver extra yield for investors. i think increasingly, we are seeing enhancements come into etf's that are more actively managed than passive indexes. kriti: you used those two buzzwords, passive and active. which one is more en vogue right now? larry: again, it depends on your mandate, in terms of your client. make sure you get the core big cap indexes in your portfolio, but make sure that you explore for where there is value in the world. right now, in yield enhancement, i think that is very en vogue for a lot of financial advisors. jon: larry, great to get your

perspective as always. larry berman, cio of capital management partners. we will have more from the conference in the coming hours. you will hear more from organ strength -- morgan stanley, michael sailor as well. get more for -- get ready for more that programming this afternoon. coming up, major changes underway at carlyle group, as a private equity giant picks a goldman sacs veteran as its new ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> this is bloomberg markets. i am jon erlichman, with kriti gupta. time now for today's "for what it's worth." $376 billion represents the assets under management of carlyle group. they will choose a former goldman sachs executive to serve as ceo.

that is one of the stories that she has been tracking today. this is been a very long-running process. sonali: we have been waiting the last six months to see who will be the new head of carlisle. remember that after lee stepped down, it was a big question on wall street. what does harvey schwartz then bring to the table? since leaving goldman sachs in 2018, it's about time. he has been rumored for a lot of positions before, including ceo of wells fargo. him taking over at a private asset farm -- firm, it's pretty crazy to hear. the pitches interesting. harvey schwartz rose that the ranks there, particularly at goldman sachs. he was a sales executive for a long time as well. in that time, he had built a lot of relationships with clients, investors around the world, sovereign wealth funds, which is

something that could come in handy when the fun rising has been difficult -- fundraising has been difficult. the other thing to keep and i out for, for harvey schwartz and assistance, is the talent story. what is this going to do to bring people together, to improve morale after such a big shakeup at the top, after some senior executives have left? kriti: there has been a bit of musical chairs, for lack of a better term. what else do we need to know about that? sonali: we were talking about asset management and the carlisle since baird you don't often see asset managers move into this, but now you are seeing it at goldman sachs as well. a senior executive in the goldman investment banking division. he's being moved to the asset management side. we can call him a legendary asset manager. matt gibson moving from a prime start -- prime spot. let's see what he could do to

drum up around this asset manager as well, in terms of bringing on more investors around the world, as goldman tries to deemphasize its balance sheet investment. it is a pretty core topic for solomon over at goldman sachs after that big shift in consumer. now, it really shifts to asset and wealth management, and bringing in third-party investors as they go along. kriti: certainly a lot to keep an eye on. our chief wall street correspondent oliver appeared you can follow her newsletter. it comes out weekly on businessweek. i'm sure it is on the terminal right now. i cannot member the function. >> you can subscribe. kriti: you have to tune in. i read it every single week. she forces me to or she won't cook me dinner every three months or so. jon: [laughter] kriti: it's a real quid pro quo,

for lack of a better term. s&p 500 down about 0.6%. you're seeing a flood concentrated in the nasdaq, down about 1% on the day. the bond market 3.62 on the 10-year yield. this is bloomberg. ♪ i screwed up.

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romaine: a big question here about whether the fed is done. a big question about whether the rally is done. romaine bostick kicking you off to the close on this monday afternoon alongside scarlet fu. >> thank you, welcome back to you as well. romaine: we talk about where we have been seeing in this market and around the world. the big data released on ryan day gave a lot of people a big of a wake-up call of the balance between a strong economy and the fed's fight against inflation is