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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  February 6, 2023 6:00pm-8:00pm EST

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>> welcome to daybreak asia. >> is just set for a subdued start as u.s. stock and treasuries take a hit ahawkish . the rea's set to deliver the last hike of the cycle. expected a 25 basis point increase. the adani family prepays loans seeking to restore investor confidence. we will hear from the ceos about the long-awaited deal to revamp the relationship. >> we had pressure on the s&p 500 for a second session today. we had tech leading those. we are reacting to earnings season, we are reacting to where yields are going.
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the two year yield was around 4.5%. we continue to see the treasury sell off, this of course on raphael bostic's comments. we are also seeing pushing higher at the moment. we were a little bit in oversold territory, but also because of the earthquake in turkey. that led to some pressure on supplies and perhaps a little bit of upside on oil prices right now. >> take a look at the set up. some sideways trading that we are seeing. we will see more action later
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on. the consensus is for 25 basis points. potentially this is the end of the current tightening circle. a small risk of them going bigger. some degree of uncertainty in there. the broader china reopening trend will be dominant this season for australia. the aussie dollar remains the best-performing currency in the g10. moving on from australia, this is what we are watching. the muted trading overnight and a lot of this sideline action ahead of what we could potentially hear from fed chair
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powell in the upcoming interview will be dominating some of that risk aversion we are seeing at the moment. new zealand is down, some modest upside when it comes to nikkei futures. dollar-yen holding at 132. >> let's delve into the reserve bank of australia decision that we are expecting. there expected to raise its key rate to the highest level in more than 10 years. kathleen hays is here with more. what are the dynamics? >> these forecasts are all over the map, from nothing to a larger hike because there are some big factors on every side. when you look at that consensus, 25 basis hike to 3.35 percent.
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they did a 25 basis point hike in december, but they talk hard about a 50 basis point hike because they are so focused on inflation. it came in way higher than they thought it would. 6.9% year-over-year. the fact that it continues to move higher, there is hopes it will start cooling off, especially after 300 basis of rate hikes. ahead of the rba says they will do what they have to do to bring down inflation. how much will they go? let's look at the forecast. there is a nontrivial threat of 40 basis points. they are tilted a little bit
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more toward 50. jp morgan sees absolutely nothing. the big argument on the others is looking at the delayed impact of the rise in rates and what it is going to do to people's adjustable mortgage rates. there is going to be a big reset in a few months. that will continue to hit households with higher inflation, higher prices slowing down retail spending a little bit. if they do opt for a bigger one, that may impact what they signal over the next three quarters. >> sources say credit suisse is delaying a composition day for some of its bankers. it is putting further strain on the relationship with staff as a restructuring is -- restructures operations. what do we know? >> we were told bankers were
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supposed to have their compensation discussions on wednesday. they were informed on monday the payment will be delayed. it is definitely making people nervous about how much they are going to get paid. >> how much more pressure does this put on the relationship between the employer and employees at a time when we are coming off the back of losses and scandals? >> credit suisse has had an eventful year. they had one of the most eventful and difficult years compared to anybody on wall street. they had to restructure the bank
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and had proposed just enough the investment banking business. there is another component of stricken a deal with a financier who was supposed to reform the entire credit suisse banking franchise and that is being delayed and people are getting more nervous. >> let's turn to another crisis and right now with the adani group. the indian billionaire taken new steps to restore confidence. annabelle has the latest. the family trying to get ahead of the curve when it comes to loan repayments. >> this is what this is all about.
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that is the latest that adani has returned burling's on loans in advance. just over $1.1 billion worth. that releases stocks of certain adani companies back into the system. it comes at a key time because we have at least eight adani companies reporting earnings this week and it will be a chance for investors to scrutinize the health of the financials. profit jumped 78 in the third quarter, but it was helped by a one-time regulatory order. the key question is whether it will boost sentiment. the company is confident about its outlook. adani transmission feltham percent in the session.
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-- 10% in the session. that could be something else that could prop up sentiment because we are already seeing losses mirroring the $120 billion mark. >> more than 3400 people have been killed after two middle east earthquakes hit for care. millions of people were left without you will and utilities after freezing night with snowfall. the president sets it is turkey strongest disaster in the century. the usa preparing to slap a 2%
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-- two hundred percent tariff on russian-made aluminum as early as this week. sources say washington wants to ramp up pressure on moscow as the war in ukraine approaches its second year. india's oil minister says rising crude demand gives that opportunities to add more supply. russia's role as india's suppliers price dependent. india intends to harness its growing buying power to secure favorable deals. >> anybody who tells you they are doing it for the love of goodwill, no. they have an asset, it is a stubborn asset, you decide how much to sell, we will decide how much to buy depending on the
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price. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. >> coming up next, wells fargo investment institute joins us to talk strategy and why investors should be focused on earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ what will you do? will you make something better? create something new? our dell technologies advisors can provide you with the tools and expertise you need to bring out the innovator in you.
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>> powell has said he will keep raising rates. if he them there, we will have a paradigm shift. if he cuts it again, we will go back to growth stocks. i think he will leave them there. paradigm shifts can be very violent, they take time. >> our next guest sees more downside risk in stocks and earnings estimates at this year are still too high at these levels. paul christopher from wells fargo investment institute joins us now. i suppose the reality is what the fed has been messaging the
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entire time, the latest being raphael bostic who is delivering lately the consistent message we see from jay powell. >> the message all last year was that the fed would raise rates and hold them there as long as needed to bring down inflation. and the markets never wanted to let go of that idea that the fed would pivot before the economy slows too much. but now what has happened is that inflation is coming down quickly and the economy is still showing signs of strength. some of the markets are saying, well, if inflation is going to come down this quickly, maybe the fed will be able to cut rates before they previously had thought and babylon allow the economy to soft land and it will benefit growth stocks. we are not certain that is what will happen. we still see significant weakness in the economy.
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for the time being, it is probably better to stick with quality stocks. we like energy and health care. we like information technology, but we like large and mid better than small. >> not time to go international for you. >> we still see that as the most likely scenario, but the international markets are going to get interesting at some point and we do expect to rebalance back into those markets. not quite time yet. >> are we talking about advanced markets are more emerging markets? we have seen that bullish case from wall street start to fade a little bit. >> we are thinking the developed markets, europe in particular,
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might look more attractive here going forward than emerging markets. >> there was a lot of optimism on the ems given china's reopening. you do not see that as a potential upside? >> there is a balance that is due in emerging markets. markets like brazil, south korea, china, they were terribly oversold, but the developed markets have been oversold for years. by relative value comparisons, developed markets are more attractive. china's growth rate for this year is better than bouncing along the bottom, but it is not going to be 5%. they still have a lot of problems in the property sector with debt and there is a lot of
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inefficiency in those companies. >> there has been a lot of breakouts in the dollar, which we have not seen since november. how does that factor into your calculations? >> with the dollar still pretty weak, relatively speaking, the dollar is still not really in great shape and we think the direction is lower. could i get a bounce? yes. we will just have to see. >> that had of wells fargo investment institute, paul christopher. let's take a look at the movers in the australian session.
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you crest extant those gains modestly so far. --newcrest extending those gains modestly so far. a second approach to create a precious metals giant to try to preserve those reserves. we are hearing the ceo will leave after a decade at the home. -- helm. we are seeing the market value balloon up. we saw positive numbers and it could mean a record dividend for the full year. we are also watching my car
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regroup, a big jump when it comes to the motto these group. -- commodities. we will be speaking to scott charlton from trans urban. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> renault and nissan are revamp in the relationship. >> this is based on relationships and simple, clear rule. as a consequence of the whole thing with the idea of going
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back to a normal governance scheme between two companies. we had a very different way of handling the issue. having 15% without having any right. we on the other is having no right. right now it is 15 and 15. we are going to prepare that. i think it will be helping the operation. >> some investors are saying this could be a renewal of vows between the two companies, or it could be the first step toward a divorce. what is your response? >> if you look at our
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circumstances today, you need to make our value proposition. how we can make our alliance [indiscernible] we have our own strategy and how we can maximize all of those together. we should not look at the past about our future growth. i think these circumstances made us move on that. it is going to be more stronger. >> what about those who say that rishaad: -- renault has given
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away too much in this deal? >> i am the ceos so i look at the business opportunity. any stakeholder could see the future would be better than the last three or four years. it is not rocket science. what we have announced today in terms of business opportunity is much bigger than renault has done at least in the past few years. that is the most important thing. we are here to develop business
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and create value. >> an important part of the deal is the 20% into the trust. -- putting 20% into a trust. >> we are going to make an equal partnership. [indiscernible] my job is how i can make my nissan share price. >> that was the renault co and nissan ceo. we have some breaking news when it comes to the leadership at carlyle group.
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harvey schwartz has a chance at a $180 million incentive. they have picked the goldman veteran as its next ceo. they are really looking to move past what has been a protracted challenge when it comes to that leadership. coming up next on daybreak: asia, we get
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♪ shery: breaking news out of japan. we are getting the labor
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earnings numbers. you're on your growth of four point 8%, surpassing expectations for december. an acceleration from the previous month. when you take into consideration inflation, real cash earnings growth is only .1%. still beating expectations. the expectations were for a contraction. if you look at household spending, it is a contraction of 1.3% for the month of december. the expectation was for a smaller number in december after contraction of 1.2% in november. we are now seeing japanese households not spending as much as mentioned. not surprising, given hotter consumer prices and how this is weighing in terms of spending on real terms. an acceleration of the contraction we have been seeing and household spending in japan. 1.3 percent contraction, in the negative for december. despite the fact we got
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government travel subsidies and higher winter bonuses. let's get to vonnie quinn with headlines. vonnie: rafael bostick says january's cop reports could mean the central bank may need to raise interest rates. his base case remains for rates to reach 5.1%, in line with december forecast. jay powell speaks exclusively to bloomberg tv's david rubenstein. the u.s. has begun recovering parts from a chinese balloon shot down off the coast of south carolina. officials say the balloon and its sensors are lying in 15 meters of water scattered over 11 kilometers. one concern is whether the equipment contains hazardous materials. officials are still -- still trying to figure out how much beijing new. dachshund's family have prepaid borrowings backed by stock. the group says the payment will
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help release almost 12 million shares in adani transmission. adani is seeking to restore confidence after a short seller attack wiped out $118 billion in market value and forced the flagship to scrap said -- share sale. india's parliament opposition seeks to highlight ties between narendra modi and adani. the main opposition congress party staged protests at the state bank of india to spotlight the risks to millions of small investors. adani has often aligned business plans with the prime minister's growth strategy. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. haidi: let's get to annabelle in hong kong. annabelle: half an hour out from the opens in japan and korea. you can see the trading day is looking extremely range bound. what is driving that is jay
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powell speaking later in an interview on tuesday. the expectation is maybe he will pour a lot of cold water on this market euphoria. with that we could be nearing the end of rate hikes. raphael bostic earlier said actually the terminal -- terminal rate may end up being higher than anticipated. investors are a little on edge. you can see that, not willing to make decisions either way. the other thing driving sentiment a little bit is the expectation not only for the reserve bank of australia meeting, but also earnings. we bring up this terminal chart. we are seeing the asx 200 within 1% of an all-time high reached in 2021. investors say any company willing to bet out an outlook could be rewarded, but we might not get too many in the earnings ahead. the other benchmark reporting a lot of earnings, japan.
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bringing up this chart, we can take a look at the numbers we have had over the past 24 hours. a mixed bag in terms of results. some analysts saying the direction of stocks could more be driven around expectations for who will be the next boj chair. but also, big earnings coming out later today. shery: including from softbank and nintendo, both set to release third quarter tuesday. our next guest is short both companies. amir anvarzadeh, good to have you with us. should we start with softbank? in your notes, you call this a basket case. why? >> obviously, it is no news now that stock-price investment thesis or discipline have raised eyebrows. in regards to the -- just the
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method to the madness, if you'd like to seeing these fairly poor results from softbank. what is interesting is that -- tends to get involved in certain types of companies. although it looks diversified, the actual companies he has invested income, the types of companies tends to be very similar. he might invest in grab. we had investments before in things like uber. so, he tends to be very focused and concentrated on one fund. the other issue we have had softbank over the past two years that we have had it has a cell is the fact that they are buying
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back shares. that is usually good news for corporations, but if you have capital restraints like they have had, instead of paying back huge loads, buying back shares to appease shareholders. that has not really worked because the share price has been in doldrums. he can also argue he could have gone down lower had they not fought back shares. to some extent, that has helped. particularly among individual investors. but you can see the -- overwhelmingly bullish. they have kind of toned it down. it depends on what the market is going to do. this market is going to rebound, then the ipo market is going to come back, then sure, things could improve. shery: also in the doldrums, nintendo. which did not really participate in the tech rally. what is going on?
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>> nintendo has a slightly different problem. unlike softbank, it is a solid company. one of the most innovative companies in japan. we have knows -- we have no issues with it structurally. we do not think it is a house of cards. this is more of an issue with the cycles, they game consul cycles. the switch tends to be long in the tooth in terms of where it is in the cycle. it was -- six years ago. management seems to think that we are just past the half your point for switch in terms of the lifecycle of the consul, which we do not agree with. we think switch was going to peak out in terms of sales before covid. of course, covid hit and extended that cycle by two
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years. nintendo has some wonderful games. if you keep the momentum on game sales among nintendo users. but, consul sales are slowing. you might see a bump because of component charges improving, but just like sony. we saw console revision, that was a byproduct of the fact that semiconductors are more available. so, you might get a little bit of a bump but it does not necessarily mean that neither nintendo nor sony are in reasonably good shape going forward for earnings. sony's problems are different. much more structural. nintendo's problems are cyclical on the console side. haidi: do you think -- has faded? >> not her last quarter.
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-- went all the way up to 150. the average was 145. to answer your question, yes. this quarter. but we will see earnings results from last quarter. it is a backwards looking number. but yes, what we have been saying on sony and nintendo, sony particularly because people have this perception that sony is it -- which is simply not true. if you break it down, you will see they have had massive benefits. to some extent for nintendo too in terms of translation. haidi: always great to chat with you. japan equity strategist. amir anvarzadeh. south korean e-commerce pioneer has invested 260 million dollars in its newest operations center. also rolling out an army of robots at fulfillments centers to reach profitability.
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stephen engle took an exclusive look inside. steven gunn coupon is most often compared to amazon. it has an outsized share of e-commerce market an efficiency at all cost business model and a host of highly automated fulfillment centers like this one. its newest and largest. 3.5 million square feet of floor space spread out over 12 stories. think nearly 50 football stadiums stacked on top of each other and side-by-side. but, it's size is not it's only signature. it stands out for its aia army of robots. from movers to forklifts and scurrying sorters that navigate by qr code in the floor and on pillars that get 99% of all orders delivered within a day. all this speed to customers has come at a cost. backed by softbank, it has
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burned through cash. losing billions, building more than 100 centers across south korea with more planned. this one cost one quarter of $1 billion. >> we invested aliens to building this network that is integrated in between all the logistics steps in the supply chain. stephen: how important is it that -- it's end to end echo >> that is our differentiator. we want to operate the entire process. stephen: still, investors remain cautious as shares have lost two thirds their value since coupang ipo high in march of 2021. >> every tech company around the world is now talking about saving costs. coupang is one of a few that is still -- >> we are actually the third largest employer in korea.
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we continue to hire people, but there job becomes easier and more like a controller type task. we have these sorting boats that are eliminating all of the carrying and most of the lifting involved in conventional -- stephen: you have removed the heavy lifting? >> exactly. stephen: the real heavy lifting maybe in its plans to go over to -- to go overseas where they only have minor imprints in taiwan and japan. >> global expansion is not easy. this market is crowded. a lot of companies like amazon or alibaba, even tiktok wants to do e-commerce. >> for now, the focus seems to be on this factory floor, not future ones. >> these are equipped with a technology that looks at these marks and knows exactly their locations and where they need to move to. stephen: and they always obey? >> they do.
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it is a machine. stephen: they do what you tell them. got it. haidi: steve joins us now. shery: a futuristic facility. what stands out to you? stephen: obviously, we heard -- talking about softbank earnings per they had trouble, obviously. we do know they divested their quarter stone investment in alibaba. the question is, will they also will eventually divest from coupang? again, they have been a big source of investment for coupang . helping build out a fulfillment center like this one that cost about $260 million. where we are now is the automated vehicles, goods to people as they call it, essentially where these robots bring shelves of goods from the inventory to the actual human handlers, and then gets into the supply chain and to the
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customer. 99% of goods get to customers within a day. sometimes a few hours. as far as going forward and that whole ankle about softbank, dated reach their first operational profitability in the fourth quarter. many analysts expect because of this investment in high technology, they could have a second consecutive operational profitability with the goal in 2023 to reach net profitability this year. the investment is paying off, but there is still more in the pipeline. haidi: stephen engle with the latest. breaking news on the new york stock exchange. the trading glitch we saw in january that caused wild market swings on the 24th. now being cited as an example of
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why trading should not be pushed onto exchanges. and has become one of these regulatory debates that is ongoing at the moment. now when it comes to compensation, nyse planning to pay out 60% of the claim submitted after the glitch. totaling millions of dollars. the type of coverage will depend on the type of trade. some investors could recoup all of their losses. others may not end up with anything at all. some of those claims were submitted by the likes of charles schwab and citadel. lots more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: europe takes a backseat. let's take a deeper look with head of asia-pacific power, coal and carbon markets. when you look at the trends when it comes to coal consumption in india, what is notable to you? >> the notable part is that it is a steady rise upwards. indy -- india is the second largest -- globally.
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mining, consumption and imports i significant jump in 2020 we expect that to go on. this is mainly due to a steadily growing demand for electricity. we expect electricity demand to continue to grow 4% to 6% every year this decade. whether da's also investing in solar, coal will grow all the way to the mid-20 30's. dependence on whole will remain due to cost and energy security. coal still remains one of the cheapest fuels to burn for electricity globally and it is also domestically available in india. if 2022 has taught us anything, it is to minimize dependence on other countries for fuel. haidi: what does that mean for the global coal markets, given india's major role in the demand picture? >> in the short-term, it adds a
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lot more pressure on an already tight balance for coal. we know china is also reopening, which -- china goes up, they will likely be burning more coal this year. on the supply side, major exporters like australia and south africa struggled in 2020 keep their export capacities up to its max. it is likely to continue this year due to unfavorable weather in australia and logistical issues in both australia and south africa. long-term come india will likely look inwards and move towards a higher degree of self-sufficiency. they've got plans to increase mining production in india and they will likely go toward that. shery: the latest on india's energy market. especially when it comes to call. let's stay with a company transforming trash to fuel. carbon recycling technologies,
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now one of 15 finalists for the world's top environmental awards. ceo jennifer holmgren spoke to us at india energy week in bangalore. >> we have that first ethanol from a refinery off gas with our partner at the tiny pack refinery. it will produce full capacity almost 35,000 tons of ethanol. all using the flue gases. >> what is your plan for new commercial capacity to come to market in ethanol given the growth context? >> we have plans in china from steel mill and throughout the. we have a plant in europe which will start up with steel mill gases. we are starting to use municipal solid waste. trash to ethanol. we like to say trash to treasure. >> what you expect will be the
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biggest challenge as you -- to exploit? >> the biggest challenge is how quickly we can get scale. the petroleum industry is 100 million barrels a day. how do you do that with waste? how do you do that with residue? i think it is possible, but how much steel can we put in the ground to refine co2? it is going to take time. >> i want to touch upon this sustainable aviation fuel. you have agreements with two airlines. how close are you to commercialization? can you talk us through how competitive that could become? >> first of all, the beauty of the technology for -- is that it utilizes ethanol. i already told you we can make ethanol from any resource and we are not the only one spirit --
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only ones. ethanol is the perfect local feed from which to make sustainable aviation fuel. how close are we? we are building a 40 million liter per year production facility in the united states to take ethanol to jet fuel. sustainable aviation fuel. that will start at the end of this year. we have agreements from -- in japan. we have offtake agreements from reddish airways. and of course, shall and sent an have agreements. that means there are direct agreements for their -- but also offtake agreements with others who will sell to airlines. haidi: jennifer holmgren speaking to bloomberg. lots more to come. this is bloomberg.
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haidi: these are the stocks we are watching when trade opens in japan. softbank and nintendo pair we have their earnings coming up later. nissan on watch after bring all lowered its stake. we have a rebound relationship
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between the two. keeping an eye on apple suppliers per the latest iphone selling at an unusually steep discount. also, samsung has begun making its key smartphones in india. this renews its focus on a major growth market where chinese devices have eaten into its sales. a reminder, we will have live coverage and analysis of jay powell's exclusive interview with carlisle co-founder jose rubenstein. the market opens in seoul and tokyo next.
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shery: this is daybreak asia. counting down to asia's major market opens. after a down day on wall street, looking ahead to chair powell's comments at an event in the u.s. tuesday. same time, we are looking forward to the rba rate decision today. haidi: meantime, we've got australian markets on the cusp of an all-time high. will we get there? will be stay there? earnings have been key. questions of cost-of-living, inflation, china reopening. all of these questions will be in focus. annabelle: we are a few seconds away from the open in japan and the start of trading for cash treasuries. on the outset in japan, a lot of focus coming down to the boj. speculation that -- could be taking the helm yesterday is what led gains in the nikkei. we don't have an announcement
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yet, but local media is reporting we could get the nominations next week. kyoto saying without attribution. a key factor that will weigh into the policy will be the strength of wage growth. we saw nominal wages in december , rising at the fastest pace since 1997. jumping 4.8% from a year earlier. that could fuel speculation in the markets that we are going to say -- see a boj policy pivot. in terms of trading, we are looking fairly range bound. partly what is driving that is this risk off mood that is coming into markets. investors in a wait-and-see mode because we have jay powell giving a key interview later today or the question is whether he will start to tamper that optimism we have seen from investors over the past couple of weeks that perhaps the end of the rate cycle could be near.
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we had bostick speaking earlier, he said the strong jobs report we got friday could be something that makes the terminal rate a little higher than where it is currently expected. in terms of what else, the korean yuan looking weaker. we will have notes coming up from the be ok and the finance mystery -- ministry concerning the internationalization of the korean yuan. the whole idea is to expand trading. let's change now because in australia, central banks focus today. we had that decision from the rba. the expectation is for another hike of 25 basis points. the key question is around the guidance, whether we will have expectations of how near we are to the end of the timing cycle. also, keeping an eye on wti, rising a little over expectations. shery: our next guest says growth is set to de-synchronize around the world.
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let's discuss where the opportunities are with ray sharma-ong, investment director of multi-asset solutions at aberdeen. good to have you with us. we have seen a lot of optimism at the start of the year over emerging markets, given what is happening in china. now we are seeing cracks in that bullish call. where do you stand on where the opportunities are? >> thank you for having me. it is true, i would like to remind everyone that markets do not travel in a straight line. from time to time, profit-making opportunities to happen. right now we are seeing markets use this current opportunity pertaining to geopolitical noise around u.s.-china tensions. in terms of where we stand, -- is currently down 7.5%. it peaked on the 27th of january from current levels. expects 20% upside from carmelo's. we do not see change to
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fundamentals. covid reopening will continue. property policy pivot will be in play. regulatory loosening is going to happen. monetary support is going to be -- going to increase. we expect chinese growth. shery: is that positive spillover from the story in china, what makes you more bullish when it comes to korean equities? >> yes. there are positive spillovers in broad asia as well as korea. just to highlight a few key things, the warmer european winter has developed some moderation in energy prices. the china policy pivot has helped sentiment in asia. the dollar has softened. valuations are attractive. positioning is light. that makes asia in general attractive.
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korea specifically we see as a laggard market that will likely be poised to do well. the macro earnings contraction we currently see is in the price. we expect -- to actually -- we expect the trend for korea equities to be such where markets will look through the current earnings downgrade we will see and look forward to next year earnings likely to take lace. current markets expecting korea to grow by 45%. [indiscernible] that is where we stand. haidi: what is the biggest risk this year? the inflationary impact of china? the fact that markets will have to start listening to the fed? that they could stay higher for longer? is it a structural impediment? >> a couple of key risks.
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the first would be global risk, which is driven by the fed. if the fed actually does end up delivering more than what markets currently price. then this will lead to a knee-jerk reaction in selloff across broad markets. the second key risk we see is sentiment driven. specific the asia. should geopolitical risk increase or escalate, that results in the deterioration of fundamentals in china. currently have we -- we have america -- in chinese tech. if that spills over to a broader ban into chinese equity markets in terms of chinese listed stocks, that will be a -- at present, we do not see that. all of these are risks at the back of -- the third and final one would be further escalation in russia
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versus ukraine. that can significantly fuel higher prices that will significantly hurt the asia complex. a lot of asia central banks are thinking of pivoting soon this year. that may actually cause them to rethink their posture. haidi: watching the lda today, potentially the last rate hike of the cycle. we talked about the exceptionalism of the us trillion market. equity sitting on the cusp of record high. you are still long the aussie dollar. is that a risk trade? is that away to get exposure to china reopening? >> we see two main drivers. interest-rate differential land growth being supported for the australian dollar. the rba is obviously one factor. rba is expected to hike 50 basis points later today. what is important is the tone and win -- so everyone is going to watch for that. we expect the middle to be much higher.
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so, there's still more runway to go. inflation, soft labor market will likely result in -- you have rate differentials and then australia is also a china beneficiary. if china grows, not only -- but true investment channel, then australia -- [indiscernible]haidi: if china is the upside driver for the broader emerging-market complex, do you see india as the drag? would you make of broader indian risk assets given that we know see this crisis in the third week. >> that's a good point to highlight. india in general is seen as a safe haven for china trade. when china risks increase significantly, assets tend to be muted. the india trade is actually the --
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when china rallies 20% based on expectations, a lot of policy pivots have to be priced in. then we see in the opportunities look attractive. indian growth is much larger and faster than the rest of the region. earnings are expected to come in at par or higher than the rest of the region. in addition, we see a lot of government stimulus and infrastructure. the latest announcement in the budget will likely support india equities. right, yes there's lots of volatility. although we do expect that to be due syncretic we do not expect major spillovers to the broader market. haidi: always good to have you with us. ray sharma-ong, aberdeen. let's get over to vonnie quinn for headlines. vonnie: more than 3400 people are now known to have been killed after two of the most powerful middle east earthquake
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in decades hitch turkiye. millions were left without heat and gas, electricity or fuel during a freezing night. it is feared the death toll will keep rising as rescuers search the rubble. president erdogan says it is turkiye's strongest disaster in a century. the u.s. has begun recovering parts from a chinese balloon shot down off the coast of south carolina. officials say the balloon is lying and 15 meters of water scattered over 11 kilometers. one concern is whether the equipment carries explosives or has hazardous materials. officials are still trying to figure out how much leaders in beijing new about the mission. bloomberg has learned the u.s. is slapping a tariff on russian-made aluminum. the steep tariff will effectively end u.s. imports of the metal from russia. washington wants to ramp up pressure on moscow as the war in ukraine approaches its second year. concerns have been raised about collateral damage.
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global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: more market reaction on asian aluminum. annabelle taking a look at how they are coming online, given the reporting vonnie was discussing. the potential tariffs could come this week aluminum linked stocks rising in the u.s. and europe sessions today. about 10 minutes and for japan and korea, we are looking a little high. mostly range bound. we are little bit wait and see and head it ahead of the jay powell interview. another the sector we are watching the commodities space is energy. we have seen oil again this morning. brent crude starts in the next hour. saudi arabia raised prices for asia. a lot of optimism around the demand outlook for this region particularly from china as we are seeing energy companies move mostly to the upside.
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another company we are focused on, nissan. it is gaining as much as 2.5%. nissan and renault are finally done reshaping their arrangement. it is complicated. they will be gradually reducing their state to nissan. haidi: india says russia pause role as its key crude supplier is up for auction. hear exclusively from -- minister. next, adani and his family prepay over $1 billion worth of borrowings as the conglomerate seeks to ally -- l.a. investor fears. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: with prices still climbing, the reserve bank about straley it is expected to raise its key rate today to the highest level in more than 10 years. editor kathleen hays is here. forecasts are all over the map. >> they certainly are. reflecting where people think the economy is ultimately going and how much inflation is going to continue to rise and how swiftly and preemptively the head of the rba is going to want
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to move in order to make sure it stops rising. 25 basis points to 3.35. you can see that will be the highest income .5. inflation keeps rising. when they did a rate hike in december going after rising inflation, thinking it was getting ready to become a they considered 50. they are not afraid to go aggressive. here is what inflation looks like 6.9%. it was supposed to peek in the low sixes. this is their concern. phil said he is on a course. they will do what they have to do. in terms of what they are going to do, i love to look at these forecasts. they are all over the map. you can start at the top where there is a forecast from cba. there is a nontrivial threat that it could be 40 basis points. -- maybe toward 50.
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that would be a shocker. but not out of the question. our economics team is more circumspect. kevin the fact that there are forces pushing down on the economy including these rate hikes, 300 basis points, that argues for a 15 basis point rate hike. jp morgan is looking for an absolute laws. all over the map. one of the big forces arguing, just stick with 25, the reset in adjustable-rate mortgages is coming. rates have already risen. when people find their mortgages rising by $100 a month, that is going to hit them hard that is one of those cautionary notes where they say, no need to go too fast. shery: speaking of surprises from central banks. [laughter] what is the latest -- of course it is going to be a big week for the fed, but also the boj. kathleen: we have to start with real wages. the real earnings.
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actually, nominal wages. this is the big question for the boj. what is going to happen to inflation? is it 4% on the core rate? they do not expected to stay there. commodity prices are going to come down. unless wages rise in keep rising to make inflation sustainable, to change disinflationary psychology into inflationary psychology, they are cautious about starting policy normalization. look what wages did. and we haven't even gotten to the heavy duty negotiations. we have seen some companies already make their hikes, but that is not here yet. a lot of that gain was bonuses. one more thing dimension, raphael bostic is usually a centrist. in an interview with steve matthews, saying given how strong the jobs report was last week and assuming it is not an anomaly, they are going to watch
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to see if it wasn't just a one month wonder. chances are there will have to be more rate hikes taking them above 5.1%. and if necessary, consider 50 basis point hikes. haidi: kathleen hays. indian billionaire adani taking steps to restore confidence. 100 $20 billion of market cap has been erased following a u.s. short seller report a managing editor -- report. we are seeing an assortment of measures to prop up investor confidence. broader market sentiment. a bit of relief for investors. what are we seeing and is it having the intended effect? >> yeah. the most recent move is the adani group buying back share back loans, freeing up stock in some of those more infrastructure focused units. adani transmission. adani ports.
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that is firmly seen as a firefighting, restoring confidence move and a way to ward off margin calls, which they are very concerned about. this comes after a bunch of banks, credit suisse among them, started to stop accepting adani securities as collateral. very much pro--- very much trying to sell things. market moves are coming down. in the absence of a first of element on this story, but we are not out of the woods. shery: especially we -- given we have many companies reporting earnings. is that going to add or decrease the risk sentiment around these companies? >> it depends on how much they address. forecasts at the outlook, these earnings are backward learning -- backward looking. adani transmission yesterday had
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more than 70% profit increase on a one-time gain. they're not traditionally -- but we do have a whole bunch today including computers cement and adani courts. we will keep a close eye on those to see what they do say about outlook about impact from this latest crisis. that one-time gain, a little bit of a boost potentially to adani transmissions fortunes in the market. shery: emma o'brien. let's delve a little bit more into this meltdown in two group. the crisis overshadowing india possible to win over investors had its major event. bloomberg senior editor reports from india. >> even as the adani crisis dominates india headlines, the country is hosting its first
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major event under the g20 presidency. narendra modi was betting india energy week will win over global investors, pitching booming growth and a friendly alternative to china. the adani -- threatens to overshadow. modi's maiden india campaign yielding success thanks to a new incentive scheme. a lofty manufacturing goal remains elusive many factoring has been stuck at 14% of gdp for years. apple assembling its latest iphone models in the country was a win. but for every apple come again, there is a ford exiting. general motors and harley davidson join forward in quitting india as market strategy challenges were compounded by high tariffs and dealing with the country's bureaucracy. add stubborn unemployment, weak
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infrastructure and competition from other asian economies such as vietnam and malaysia. india was poised to hold the title of the world's fastest-growing large economy, has a new hurdle to overcome. hindenburg versus adani. highlighting long-standing questions over corporate governance. it is another headwind for prime minister modi and his bets to build and outmaneuver -- a self-reliant india to meet the aspirations of 600 million young indians. haidi: plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> to provide guidance on where the company is headed and how he sees the markets at the current status. with that completely missing, people will feel kind of lost. what to look at and what to expect going forward.
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everyone will have to rely on the cfo, who is a top lieutenant. he will probably do his best to provide as much guidance as he can throughout the call, but we will see if investors are satisfied later today. haidi: our previous to guest from asymmetric advisors was calling softbank a basket -- basket case. [laughter] that they are all kind of the same companies. what are the expectations right now? >> right. there are some pessimistic views, but if you look at just this quarter, which is also expected to report a modest loss , you could say that some optimists would look at it and say the losses are getting significantly smaller. so there is potential for upside.
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but, given that it is going to be another quarter of losses, people will still be very curious to know what softbank is doing with its privately held holdings, which there is not a lot of clarity on. definitely there will continue to be a bit of pessimism looking at softbank's investments going forward. >> their stock down right now .6%. a preview of softbank. we will have live coverage and analysis of jay powell's exclusive interview of carlisle cofounder and tv host david rubenstein. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's official, america. xfinity mobile is the fastest mobile service. and gives you unmatched savings with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 a line per month. that means you could save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. the fastest mobile service and major savings?
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haidi: let's look at the
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numbers. this coming out on rba decision day. external demand, exports falling 1% for the month of december. previously we had seen no change. a slight deterioration when it comes to the month on month number for external demand. imports for the period of december rising by 1% correcting after the contraction of 1% in november. trade surplus hitting 12 point 23 7 billion australian dollars. slightly less than the previous number. the issue of demand both externally would expect to see the commodities affect taking place in subsequent data, but also internal demand given concerns about cost-of-living pressures. just some of the elements and issues that no doubt the rba
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will be considering when it that decision today. the first monetary policy -- monetary policy decision today are expected to hike. let's look at markets. annabelle: really strong numbers for trade over the last few months. a picture of elevated energy prices which have been good for the national income. but of course, not differ households that have been feeling the brunt of rising inflation and rate hikes ahead. this comes at a time when we do have the rba decision do later. the big question is whether it will move. the expectation is for a 25 basis point hike. bloomberg economics saying 15 could be in order. no real changes after the trade data in terms of assets but we are still seeing bond yields lower for a second straight session. the aussie dollar folding on the bulk of its losses. stocks trading steady. let's change. the other big data set that came
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out this morning relates to the direction for the boj in the months ahead. we actually saw wage gains coming in hotter than expected, particularly on a nominal basis. 4.8% versus estimates of 2.5% increase. wage gains tracked core inflation readings for than expected numbers. perhaps that means there will be more impetus for the boj to shift direction in the months ahead. shery: interesting the household spending disappointed. annabelle with a check of the markets. let's turn to vonnie quinn. vonnie: more than 3400 are now known to have been killed after two of the most powerful middle east earthquakes in decades hit turkiye in syria. millions without heating, gas, electricity or fuel during a freezing night with heavy snowfall. it is feared the death toll will keep rising as rescuers search the rubble.
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president erdogan says it is turkey's strongest disaster in a decade. atlanta fed president raphael bostic says january's jobs report could mean the central bank needs to raise interest rates. bostic told us his base case is for rates to reach 5.1 percent, in line with the median policymakers december forecast. jay powell speaks exclusively later tuesday with david rubenstein. billionaire -- adani has prepaid $1.1 billion worth of borrowings backed by stock. the says nearly payment will help release 12 million shares in adani transmission. donnie is seeking to restore confidence after a short seller attack wiped out $118 billion in market value and the flagship to scrap a share sale. india's parliament is in for a third day as the opposition looks to highlight links between narendra modi and go to madani.
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the life insurance corporation and state bank of india to spotlight the risks to millions of small investors. adani has often aligned's business plans with the prime minister's growth strategy. the south china morning post says central bankers from around the world will attend meetings in hong kong next month. the government says conferences will be hosted by the hong kong monetary authority. dates are not confirmed. the paper says it is the first major financial conference for hong kong since its post-covid reopening. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: south korean e-commerce pioneer coupang has invested $260 million in its newest operations center. it is really on an army of robots it fulfillment sensors. stephen engle took an exclusive look.
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stephen: coupang is often compared to amazon. it has an outside share of its e-commerce market, a similar business model and a host of highly automated fulfillment centers like this one, it's newest and largest floor space spread out over 12 stories. think nearly 50 football stadiums stacked on top of each other and side-by-side. but it's size is not it's only signature. it stands efforts ai driven army of robots. from heavy hauling merchandise movers to driverless forklifts and scurrying sorters that navigate by qr codes in the floor and on pillars that get 99% of all orders delivered within a day. all of this speed to customer has committed a cost. backed by softbank, they have burned through cash, losing billions, building more than 100
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logistics centers across south korea with more planned. this one cost one quarter of a billion dollars. >> we have invested billions to building this network that is integrated in between all of the logistics steps in the supply chain. how important is it that they are end to end? so you have the e-commerce and the fulfillment and the logistics? >> that is our differentiator. with our competitors. we own and operate the entire process. stephen: still, investors remain cautious as shares have lost two thirds their value since coupang 's new york post ipo high. >> every tech company around the world is talking about saving costs. coupang is one of few tech company that is still adding hit counts. >> we are the third largest employer in korea and we continue higher people. your job becomes more easier and more like a controller type of task.
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we have sorting boats that are eliminating all of the carrying and most of the lifting. stephen: you have removed all of the heavy lifting. >> exactly. stephen: the real heavy lifting might be in its plans to go overseas where they currently only have minor footprints in taiwan and japan. >> global expansion is not easy. this market is crowded. a lot of companies like amazon and alibaba, even tiktok wants to do its own e-commerce. stephen: for now, the focus is on this factory floor, not future ones further afield. >> these are equipped with vision technology that looks at these marks and knows exactly their locations and where they need to move to. stephen: and they always obey? >> they do. it is a machine. programmable. stephen: they do what you tell them to do. got it.
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haidi: steve joins us now. great to have you. such interesting visuals. what was the standout element to you in terms of what you saw? stephen: i think it is these sorting bots. they are scurrying around. it is kind of the last mile of the organization chain in the fulfillment center before the packages go onto the trucks. essentially, they get navigated around this area by qr codes that are in the ground, in the floor. they do not run into each other because it is preprogrammed. according to bj choi, they do not have mishaps. that helps reduce human error. this is part of that speed to customer equation that has helped coupang turn a profit in the calendar third quarter. most analysts say in the fourth
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quarter, likely to have a second consecutive profitability and perhaps turn to breakeven on a net basis this year. they are adding active users. they are up 7%. they had a 10% increase in net revenue. there are still challenges on the horizon. they are going to be building out several more of these large fulfillment centers. this was about $260 million. more are on the way. the goal is to get the goods to consumers as fast as possible and they have more than 100 of these are cross south korea. not as large as this one. they have logistics centers, but 70% of south koreans are within seven miles of a distribution center like this one they get the goods to people quickly. as we said, they spent billions to build out this automation which is improving efficiency,
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improving topline to bottom line. there is concern about the big parent, softbank. earnings coming out later. they did divest some of their stake in alibaba, the bigger competitor in china. but again, there might be concerned they could divest some of their 27% stake they have in this company, coupang. shery: are there plans to reach the international consumer? stephen: that is a challenge. right now, coupang has about 25% or 26% e-commerce market share. everybody wants a part of the e-commerce pie. the department store operator, they want to do more. there is a lot of competitors. at 25%, they have more room to grow in the korean market. amazon has about 50% in the united states.
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alibaba has about 50% in china. there is room to grow. international expansion is a challenge. there are different logistics and delivery systems. building a fulfillment center in a different country, like japan where they have a footprint, and taiwan, is just the beginning. there is room to grow in south korea. shery: stephen engle joining us from south korea. we have more to come on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ three nights.
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♪ shery: the vast improving revenue outlook for companies in emerging asia is boding well for the region's equity markets even as the outlook for the global economy remains murky. let's get more from -- give us a sense of the sales outlook for these companies and what the drivers are. >> yep. the sales growth forecast is about 5.3%. way more than the s&p 500. the stoxx 600 euro members are expected to show a slight dip in revenue over the next year. the idea is that it is china's
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reopening bumping up the outlook and prospects for emerging asia. foreign arrivals are still seeing out about only 60% of their 2019 numbers. there's still some way to go there. in terms of manufacturing, you are seeing a jump across the region. you saw that in january when looking at pmi gauges. thailand leading the way, as are the philippines. malaysia is the only one that saw a bit of contraction. the sense is that sales is probably a better metric to look at than earnings. that is at least according to bloomberg intelligence. -- says that the revenue numbers show the consumer recovery better than earnings projections, which are dragged down by markets. such as south korea and taiwan. haidi: what about the risks we are seeing to global growth in the potential for u.s. recession? >> absolutely.
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south korea and taiwan are still facing issues, given they are tech heavy and electronics demand is still subdued. the good thing is that the strong u.s. payroll data friday is easing concerns somewhat of hard landing in the u.s.. also with the fed's dovish tint, it is expected to be good for asia. also, imf increased the global growth forecast for the first time in a year recently. we are seeing expectations of this hard lining globally in recent weeks. that is providing -- haidi: bloomberg's asia correspondent. india's oil minister says his country's rising crude demand give some more opportunities for the u.s. he spoke to us exclusively at the india energy week conference.
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>> my last figure, which i looked at some time ago, we are imports from russia 13 times. our last figure was $20 billion. i do not know with the latest figure is. >> that is -- >> ferry -- fairly large amount. >> they are now amongst the top five? >> they are not in the top five. but if you are looking at potential, it will go up dramatically from there. >> you expect the u.s. to be bigger? >> it could it >> i understand it is dependent on pricing, etc. would you expect the u.s. could be a more significant supplier? >> let me introduce a small caveat. when you are looking at price, you are looking at delivered price. when you're looking at delivered price, you are looking at cost of transportation, insurance, freight, exchange rate, refiners margins. those margins will remain the same no matter where you are
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getting from. if you have to take supply from a distant source where you have to use an icebreaker, than the cost is added to the -- it becomes more expensive. the other party also has to look at the necessity to enter into long-term agreements. you see? >> to move more? [indiscernible] >> they don't come to me. [indiscernible] >> they don't. i read the monthly figures when i see them quoted by the indian press. the figures come out, i know who the largest supplier is. somebody has dropped, somebody has come up. and then i am told many have long-term agreements. some have renewed contracts.
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energy is not about altruism or philanthropy. anyone who tells you that they are doing it for the love of goodwill, no. they have an asset. you have an asset. a sovereign asset. you decide how much to sell. we will decide how much to buy depending on the price. shery: india's minister. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the days big newsmakers. get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. plenty more ahead. stay with us.
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haidi: a quick check of business flash headlines. -- still reported a surprised loss of $260 million. the result came as steel prices dropped her its demand in europe. it's outlook is expected to improve as china removes covid asked -- covid restrictions at exports from india resumes. i downy transmissions third quarter profits jumped 70% helped by a one-time gain following --
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the power utility reported net income of 58 million dollars, potentially giving some relief to investors. adani transmissions says revenues rose while costs increased. bed, bath & beyond is making a last-ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy by turning to the public markets for new cash. the retailer plans to raise more than $1 billion from convertible preferred securities. the plants to use proceeds from the sale to repay debts and make overdue interest payments. shery: let's turn to china and the unprecedented housing slump and construction halt. set to deliver the worst earnings for real estate developers and at least seven years. sophia acosta joins us for more. 2022 was pretty tough for developers, especially before policy support kicked in. >> this was just the mainline listed developers.
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of course a lot of big names, evergrande, listed in hong kong. they are ready, struggling to get access to funding. if they can't generate revenue, you're really seeing a difficult story. it really describes, really shows why we saw 70 record default bond defaults. we are looking at an earnings slump. the reporting season is about to kick off in china. even though the policies did kick in, policy support did kick in last year. it was mainly supply side rather than demand-side. we are yet to see a pickup in sales per the property markets slump is proving difficult to reverse. or even put a floor under for beijing. >> when it comes to drivers for
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the next leg in this rally, if we get to it, is an improvement in the property sector outlook one of the key components investors are looking for? >> excellent question. we are at a crossroads when it comes to chinese stocks right now. you had that big leg up, this -- the short hedge funds, the long international investors keeping their strategic underrates china. what can really lift animal spirits could come from the mainland. if mainland onshore stocks pickup because the rally has been driven by offshore hong kong, that could really help. that could feed sentiment to the chinese consumer. we are not seeing that yet. mainland investors are still licking their wounds from the property sector slump era a huge chunk of their household savings was in property. if we do see reversal in that market, and a reversal in
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consumer sentiment which is at a record low in china, that would be the one thing that could be a catalyst. with u.s.-china tensions getting worse and antony blinken not visiting this week, there's still a lot of nervousness. haidi: given that, it dampens sentiment. what are you watching now for drivers when it comes to chinese markets? >> we are in the window for credit data. that could be exciting. i mean, this is what policymakers have really been waiting for. they have released all of these support measures and made it easier for households and corporate's tomorrow. if january does see a record and loans, analysts are expecting five truly new one, that could show this is working on the economic recovery is kicking off. let's see what the market does.
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we are looking at a stronger open in asia. if the hang seng under reports again today, that could weigh on the hong kong dollar. that all reflects outflows from the hong kong stock market. haidi: let's look at some stocks. developer stocks move. china's eighth most populous city easing a key restriction. china gas reportedly considering spinning off value services for a hong kong ipo that could raise up to $800 million for also watching defense shares. u.s.-china relations taking a turn for the worse. on the balloon controversy. this is bloomberg. ♪
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