dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london. manus cranny is in dubai with the stories that set your agenda. manus: the rba says more tightening will be needed after hiking to a 10-year high. while the fed's rafael bostic says a higher peak rate may be necessary. european earnings in focus today, heavy hitters hitting the tape. bnp paribas, bp, siemens energy hit the tape plus, at least 4000 people have died following a devastating earthquake in southern turkey and syria. president erdogan calls it the strongest disaster in a century. dani: manus, we will -- manus: harrowing images, we will check back in a moment. dani: let's get some breaking

lines coming through. bnp beating where others could not, ficc and trading revenue coming in much stronger than estimated, at one point zero 9 billion euros, expectation had been 855 .6 million euros. also a big, chunky buyback, they had said they would deliver 4 billion euros after a sale, it is 5 billion euros they have announced of buybacks for 2023, and they have raised the 25 target, so a nice beat for bnp paribas. manus: very comfortable beats, that ficc looks ahead of what we saw last week from deutsche bank. we will catch up with the cfo, lars machenil, he is going live for the first time, no pressure, and a vision fund, it loses ¥730

billion. there is the promo for lars machenil. let's get to softbank, the fourth quarterly loss in a row at vision fund. this is in the third quarter, it lost $17 billion, another loss. some of these highly illiquid holdings are more difficult to value. tech was a wreck in 2022, we know that. approximately $5 billion has been lost by vision fund, net sales 1.6 9 trillion, but the vision fund investment loss of 730 billion, no new buyback. though hope is not all lost according to the tliv, the firm announced buybacks during a presentation, and that was from the earnings release. so we keep and i, hope still lives on that. bi have said very clearly that the defensive strategy of

softbank delivers a paucity, one a wonderful word, of profit drivers. dani: and what of the other interesting things, this is the first time ever on the earnings call, masayoshi son will not be on it. in the meantime, this market, a huge repricing underway, it continues since that friday jobs report. manus: and there has been a flamethrower blasting across the short end of the curve from rafael bostic to the aussie rba narrative about potential for rate hikes. but the equity market, do you trust this rally? don't be fooled according to steve eisman. take it away on stocks. dani: we have this repricing, so we are taking a breather with the terminal rate pricing at about 5%. finally, in line with the fed. that really crushed stocks, so we are having some consolidation

this morning. most equity indices are higher. one other thing that is rebounding, the flagship stock for adani enterprises is up some 14%. it has lost half its value, so it has a whole lot of ground to make up for. but we will get some earnings of adani companies today, and yesterday, adani prepaid $1 billion worth of debt, so a little nibbling around the edges ahead of earnings. manus: as they say in the movies, show me the money, if you buy back your debt, maybe you quell some of the cash flow fears. across markets, the short end of the curve has. sleep repriced, the ferocity is phenomenal. 37 basis points of the. -- over the period of two days. rafael bostic suggesting higher for longer. short end rates to ever so slightly this morning, aussie

dollar is lit up like christmas, and there is a long way to go, up .8%, as the rba reaganites forward guidance on the possibility of higher rates. oil rises as saudi arabia releases prices -- raises prices to asia, and the dollar drops and again rallies, the highest -- and again rallies -- and the yen rallies, the highest since 1997, the bank was called first chicago, and we got car allowances in those days. dani: i hate to do this to you, but in 1997, i was not concerned about earning a wage because i was a toddler. my parents paid for everything. anyway, we will talk rba and central banks with garfield reynolds. and stephanie is on hand to discuss credit suisse bonuses. the rba raise rates 25 basis

points and says further hikes might be needed. let's get to bloomberg's chief rates correspondent, garfield reynolds, the stars are aligning to bat down this market, to force it to see more hawkishness throughout the world, talk to us through the rba. >> how much difference a single letter can make, talking about rate hikes, plural, going forward. that made all the difference. everybody went into the meeting wondering what with the rba signal, was it close to a pause, that is tightening cycle was almost done. and instead, we got a quite straightforward, more interest rate hikes are expected. wasn't even dropped the no preset cost language that was a nod to the idea that dana could force them to slow down. they mentioned inflation. i think it was about 18 times in a fairly short statement.

so they are very concerned about inflation. they are singing from the same hymn sheet as the ecb and fed about staying the course, not allowing the possibility that inflation could come back, they will go on hiking rates until they think they have got inflation tamed. manus: well, rafael bostic likes to have his optionality. i like optionality, i never want to foreclose my action. so, this is about reigniting. if the aussie's went for the plural, bostic, who doesn't vote on the fomc, supercharged the narrative of higher for longer, and guess what, the swaps market woke up, hurrah, we are pricing five and a quarter for the first time in a while. >> it's fascinating the way a non-voter like bostic could make such an impression. maybe it made him more for your, the venue made him more freer

then powell seemed to be last week, and he was very concerned to try and guide his way towards a soft landing. and leave opene perhaps too much in the way of optionality, so bostic really nailed people were saying with the fed needed to do, which is from in the market it is out of alignment with where the fed thinks it is going to have to go. really wasn't that much in the substance of bostic's outlook that didn't gel with what the fed and powell has been saying for a long time, that they need to hold rates for longer, but yeah, it really hit the market sideways. got those bets back up. and you would think it would be hard for anything other than a confirmation of that bias from jerome powell, when he speaks on tuesday in new york, or in the

u.s. anyway, it might not be new york. but the bond market is set up for potentially more pain, the question is what is the readthrough for stocks? do we get people buying these dips? we have already seen a bit of a clawback in the u.s. two-year yield, that becomes an allegation -- could be consolidation, but is a testament to the fact that every time rates go up, that looks like a nice buy-and-hold opportunity. manus: we will leave it -- there. i live in fomo with every aspect of my life. garfield defining the plurality of one word, on the rates narrative from the aussies. give it to the rba. we've learned that credit suisse had discussions with the bankers, meetings about bonuses

were due to be held today, but have been moved forward. our senior staff editor joins me now around the desk. that brings me back to toby young's book, how to lose friends and alienate people -- how do you lose bankers and get them to walk out the door? >> credit suisse employees would be happy to have that. we were told that the last minute, talks were due to be held today, yesterday they were told it is not happening. really what we're hearing is this affects managing directors at director level, and there really is no clarity on when these talks might happen, or if they might happen at all. bonuses are due at the end of the month, so really not much time left if they are going to go ahead. manus: and this is about retaining staff, staff retention, and that is a key long-term incentive when your stock is on its knees, isn't it? >> this adds to the uncertainty

for these bankers. we are hearing about people moving from credit suisse. there is all the restructuring going on. there is the unit that will be merged with the investment bank, that adds two more uncertainty and unhappiness. >> bring back the car allowances, they were a thing in 1997. sorry, i'm a bit obsessed now, aren't i? dani: the first 10 minutes of this show has been sponsored by car alarms. alright manus, let's shift gears to the tragedy unfolding in the middle east. more than 4000 have died after two of the more powerful -- of the most powerful middle east earthquakes in decades hit turkey and syria. let's get the latest with simin demokan who joins us from istanbul. what is the latest on the ground? >> as you said, a total of 4000

people have been announced dead, both on the turkish and the syrian side. here in turkey, almost 30,000 people are expected to have lost their lives. and 16,000 injured. turkish president recipe erdogan says this is the worst disaster turkey is facing in a century. and it is the biggest earthquake since 1939, 133,000 people lost -- when 33,000 people lost their lives. it is a race against time to save as many people as possible. and international rescue teams have apparently reached the region. we know that 45 countries have said that they are willing to help. and today, romania, switzerland, azerbaijan, and lebanon rescue teams are in the region. of course, right now, so many people are on the streets, or

trapped under the rubble in real wintry conditions. it is almost one degree celsius, and snow is expected. of course, millions are also without water, power, or heat. so, it's really, really crucial that today we save as many people as possible. and of course, in the months going forward, the government really needs to deal with the economic fallout of this tragedy as well. tariq's for the last year -- turks for the last year have already been struggling last year with rampant inflation which surged as high as 85% last year. of course, the turkish lira last year was the second worst performer in emerging-market currencies. so, not only is this a race against time to save as many people as possible, but we

really need to help them economically as well, as they are currently just without homes, and without any heating or power. manus: it certainly is a harrowing set of images on the ground. thank you very much, that is simin demokan in istanbul. another trembler came yesterday after the initial earthquake, 7.6 struck nine hours later. the president of turkey says turkey is facing the strongest disaster in a century. eight is on the way from romania, switzerland, azerbaijan and lebanon. ♪ only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number.

>> powell has said that he is going to keep raising rates.

the important sentence is, and he will leave them there. if you leaves them there, i think we will have a paradigm shift. if you cut it again, we will go back to what we were, which is growth stocks. i think he will leave them there and we will have a paradigm shift, but it is unknowable at this point. ik said, paradigm shifts can be violent, they take time, we are in the middle of that. manus: steve eisman who famously bet against the subprime mortgages, telling bloomberg pcs a new era for markets if interest rates stay higher for longer. dani, a paradigm shift, eh? dani: one endorsed perhaps by a plaintiff had president bostic who reckons the january strong jobs report raises the possibility that the central bank will need to raise rates to a higher peak than policy makers expected. markets reacted by pricing on more than 5% peak. joining us now is sunaina sinha

haldea, global private capital equity advisor at raymond james. are you thinking about this as a paradigm shift, or do we just get rates cut and everything goes back to the way it was? sunaina: i'm a firm believer that the markets are pricing more of a pivot sooner. we've been talking about the pivot just as soon as they started raising rates, and the expectation has kept markets going into a risk off/risk on mode, it is premature to think about a pivot, it is also premature to think about a paradigm shift. paradigm shifts come with a lot of structural changes and pain. right now we're seeing this potential mythical soft landing becoming more of a reality with much more supportive data, and labor market, both in the europe and u.s., so i'm not sure we are in an economy that can have higher interest rates and be strong and solid, we would have rather that than a cutting

central bank. this combination we can all work with. manus: if we can all work with this combination, sunaina -- it's good to see you this morning, 5.25% which is where they swaps market is suggesting rates may get to, we may end up higher than that, what is that do for setting the strategy from growth to value, and growth has had a bit of a renaissance, but should we worship false gods? sunaina: we saw what happened in january, the catch-up trade, everything that sold off in 2022 came back with a vengeance in 2023, we know markets are not linear forever, so the downside is material, especially if we

look at the pe at which a lot of stocks are valued, what isn't being priced fully is the downside eps guidance. we are halfway through the earnings season now, that eps shoe is dropping but hasn't really landed with a thud, which is what we're saying is there will be earnings softness in growth, and that will come through in pricing over the coming quarters, so buyer beware, there is a lot more margin safety when you look at defensives and value. dani: all of the big growthy type funds, they got oblite rated last year. the vision fund says there is significant instability and they are remaining defensive, vision and fund are not two words that usually go together, are those types of funds in four continue to change? will they have to reassess, the

private vc type funds? >> sunaina: if you look at investor flows, something my business monitors on a daily basis, there is too much tech exposure in endowments and pension funds out there, why? because almost every fund, or index, or quite frankly, private equity manager, has been into growth in a big way because of where we've been in the market cycle the last decade or so. what we're seeing very much from institutional flows is can we dial back tech exposure and dial exposure up in other sectors? it is hard to fight against these institutional technical flows. there will be months like we have seen in january, but over 2023, there will be a pulling back of tech exposure in general, so it will be harder to raise capital, with a few notable exceptions.

manus: perhaps beefing up some of those other areas, i'm just looking at exxon, 59 billion dollar profit, they hold steady on buybacks. shell had record profits last week in the united kingdom, 150 7% jump in profit. what purse is a patient have two big oil? and should it be on one side of the pond or the other? sunaina: a nod to the big chevron buyback, oil looks like a very good entry point today, why? quite frankly, we've seen the limits to what the strategic petroleum reserves in the u.s. can do to keep oil prices artificially low. and the u.s. will have to replenish the strategic reserves shortly. you had russian production curtailed. on top of that, the china reopening story.

all three are nice tailwinds to the oil story. you could play that on either side of the pond, or both look at today, however you could also play that through structured notes in the oil market directly depending on your risk appetite. both look like interesting plays given where we are today. manus: some nice calls there. sunaina sinha haldea, global head of private equity, -- private capital, excuse me, at raymond james. coming up with dani and myself, the latest full-year guidance, siemens energy ceo christian bruch sits down with bloomberg. ♪

manus: siemens energy sticking to the guidance for 2023. the ceo christian bruch sat down to bloomberg. >> idc stabilization, i don't

see it getting back to historic levels where i would say probably not. you have to keep in mind, there is on the one hand material costs, on the other hand, supply cost of sub-suppliers who do certain components. there i do not yet see relaxation. it will be a titan supply chain environment throughout 2023. we have said this before, and continue to see it. don't forget, we had record order intake in the first quarter, so the industry is actually very solid in terms of demand, which will continue to keep a pressure on the supply chain. this is why in 2023, and probably beyond this, supply chain management will be our key focus area to make the company successful. >> and picking up also on inflation, perhaps the inflation

reduction act in the united states, how does that bear on how you are looking at investments? and will you invest more in the united states? >> i have to say, what i like about the inflation reduction act is two things, the one thing is it is long-term and bipartisan, so you know how long conditions are, and second, it is simple to understand and describes investment on our customer side. and with this, we also look in terms of potential capacity expansions on our side. we today run the roughly 25 factories in the u.s., and we look into investments on the existing sites, as well as potentially opening new sites. for us, three areas are hi, i'm katie, i've lost 110 pounds on golo in just over a year. i was a diet soda addict, and i needed to have a diet soda every morning as my eye-opener. with the release, the cravings are gone. golo worked for me when i thought nothing would work for me. the first few weeks were really astonishing

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manus: it's "daybreak: europe", i'm manus cranny in dubai. dani burger alongside me in london hq on the stories that set your agenda. dani: the rba says more tightening will be needed after hiking to a 10-year high. but the fed's rafael bostic says a higher peak rate may be necessary. andrea g and -- energy and interest income, european earnings in focus today, stay tuned, we have got bp and bnp paribas. plus, at least 4000 have died following a devastating earthquake in southern turkey and syria. president are calls it the strongest disaster in a century. we will stay on top of that story for everyone, but we have breaking news from the japanese tech and gaming giant. manus: we do indeed, this is the total switch sales, 18 million units, that is the red headline,

nintendo underperforming, they are cutting revenue and net profit views for the end of march. now nintendo, of course, hasn't enjoyed that rally. they come some of the games they produce, mario, zelda, stock is up 2% this year, then sony is banging way up 20% this year, better playstation outlook for them. so, nintendo at this juncture, full year 370 billion yen. what you think of the dividend, we got the new operating profit. dani: operating income is weaker, ¥480 billion, the expectation had been ¥500 billion, they have raised their dividend for the second quarter to ¥630, but despite that, some spots of weakness.

it reminds me of some of the pc stories we talked about yesterday, this idea that some of the consumer demand has been slowing. i know pc, dell cutting jobs is a different business than nintendo, but i wonder what this is about demand in general? manus: we just had a conversation with raymond james, which is this buy everything rally we have had, which is maybe something we can't trust, if we get rates, not so much nintendo, but overall, i.t. and tech might not necessarily endure a much higher regime change as they did in january. but you're right, this is all about the consumer, and all about this band. but then, why has nintendo so underperformed relative to its peers? so we keep and i on that software side of the business, which is called switch. dani: and manus, if i can just

do an elegant little segway, the other story in japan that is of much interest in japan, is the highest nominal paid growth in 25 years, some hot data coming in for japan. we combine that with rba, and we know japan is idiosyncratic, but the rba says more rate hikes are coming, and with bostic who says the peak perhaps should be higher after the u.s. jobs data, you get a market that is doing some repricing. the most since we saw that hot cpi in june. manus: and i think garfield reynolds, our editor in australia, instantly qualified the mood music when he said it was the plural that was used by the rba, people thought they were at or near the peak, the aussie dollar has ripped tire, one of the best-performing currencies on g10 so far in

2023, why because of the china reopening narrative, and now multiple rate hikes which could come from the rba which is far from done. add in to that a blowing off of yield curve control, i want to go back to my call with goldman sachs, they said, look, if yield curve control gets pushed out, you are looking at a ripple, not an amazing var shock, i am paraphrasing goldman sachs asset management, now the market is assuming for the first time since the back end of last year, that we will get to a terminal rate of 5.25%. we are on our way, what does that mean for growth to value, dani? dani: we saw the two-year yield finally above 5%, jumping 40 basis points in the past two days, that is the second biggest move in yields in over a decade.

i go back to the fact that the last time we saw a move of that magnitude was last summer, when cpi changed everything for the fed, and they went at it 75 basis points. but may i just say, the markets are taking a breather from all of this massive repricing, and i'm just going to dive into the equity markets look at this morning. gains across the board for the most part, msci asia-pacific is up nearly half a percent, and i've got to mention adani. we get some earnings in about two hours time, perhaps less. they also pay down about a billion dollars worth of debt, prepaid that i should say. a little bit of buying, but it has lost half of its value, 18%, it has moved, but it has a while. manus: equities are not just speaking a little higher, they have not paid attention to steve

eisman, don't be fooled by the recent rally, everything tech and crypto, it's astonishing, and he is worried some of these stocks have gone too far. kolanovic, we will hit an air pocket in the second quarter. here we are on cross as it, yields have come back, they have put on 40 basis points in the space of two days, so looking at a reappraisal of where the terminal rate may become swaps market says 5.25% could be made, that is the first time since november the market has been brought to heel by fed speak, what will powell do today to underscore that? the aussie dollar flies higher .8% as we see the potential for further rate hikes, and nymex is up as the saudis raise their pricing to asia, europe and the united states of america and yen strength after the highest wages since 1997.

dani: let's get you some of our top stories. with the first word news is simone foxman in doha. >> more than 4000 people have died after two of the most powerful middle east earthquakes in decades hit turkey and syria. millions were left without heating, gas, electricity or fuel during a freezing night. there is fear the death toll will keep rising as rescuers search the rubble. the rba has raised its cash rate target to 3.3 5%, from 3.1%, in line with most economists' expec tations the australian dollar. and bond yields jumped after the announcement after the statement that it expects further interests rate increases will be needed over the months ahead. wages in japan rose at their fastest pace in 26 years in december. the jump is well above what

economists were forecasting. nominal earnings rose by 4.8% year on year in the country, as winter bonuses boosted worker pay. the data is likely to increase pressure on the boj to ease its yield curve control measures. bloomberg has learned the u.s. is preparing to slap a 200% tariff on russian-made aluminum as soon as this week. the tariff would effectively end u.s. imports of the metal from russia. sources say washington wants to ramp up pressure on moscow as the war in ukraine approaches its second year, but concerns have been raised about collateral damage to u.s. industries. atlanta fed president rafael bostic says january's strong jobs report could mean the central bank needs to increase interest rates to a higher peak. bostic told us his base case remains for rates to reach 5.1 percent, in-line with the median of policymakers december

forecast. chair powell speaks exclusively to bloomberg later today with host david rubenstein. rishi sunak is planning to carry out a reshuffle of his cabinet as soon as today, in an effort to reset after a rocky 201st days in office. the prime minister will appoint a new conservative party chair after he sat nadeem zahawi over a tax scandal more than a week ago. a breakup of the department for business, energy and industrial strategy is also expected. the government declined to comment. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm simone foxman, and this is bloomberg. manus: simone foxman in doha. the german economy minister robert haber tells bloomberg

europe and the u.s. should join forces on common rules on how to organize the market for critical minerals. this as the european union finds ways to qualify for benefits under the new u.s. green investment plan, reduce its reliance on metals and raw materials from china. all of her corrupt joins dani at myself, -- oliver crook joins dani and myself, moving from siemens to ministerial post in one fell swoop, how desperate are germany for collaboration between the eus and eu on minerals? is it desperation or expediency? >> you could have a bit of both. it is emerging as one of the only points on which you will be able to find any concessions. the germans, french and all the europeans are trying to find ways to benefit from the inflation reduction act so they are not competing with the united states. the last thing they want to get into is a sanctioned subsidy war

where the u.s. is already throwing have a trillion dollars, those are not waters they want to get into, so they had a meeting with janet yellen. they will meet with katherine tai and gina raimondo, and we spoke to robert habeck in d.c. about one of the things he finds most vexing about the inflation reduction act. >> the clause where the production in america is the ground forgetting extra fees or subsidies. this is very much in line with what we're doing in europe. therefore we search for answers how we can solve this problem. >> one of the biggest issues is the made in america part of the inflation reduction act. there is no way they will budge on that. so they are hoping to get agreements on raw materials because europe and the united states have a common interest to reduce reliance on china. right now europe takes 98% of

rare earth minerals from china, an imbalance they would like to fix. dani: that's bloomberg's oliver crook in berlin. coming up, results at bnp paribas are in, a big beat when it comes to ficc and trading. we will speak to the cfo lars machenil next. this is bloomberg. ♪ and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice

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dani: bnp paribas announced it would buy back 5 billion euros of its own shares following the sale of its u.s. unit. the french lender raise profitability targets after traders posted a quarter that beat many wall street peers. we are joined now by the chief financial officer, lars machenil , thanks for joining us this

morning. i want to start with that big beat in ficc and trading. yours surged by 45%. are you seeing more market share? are you capturing more market share from rivals? is that how that is being done, good morning to you. >> if you look at the results, i remind you, bnp paribas, we have the fixed income, we have corporate financing, that means we can serve our clients with a hole with of products. that is basically what we do, and why you see that year after year, we step up market share, because we can serve them across the board. that is what you see in ficc, but you basically see it also on the other profits. manus: lars, when it comes to ficc, the market will be

squarely focused on that and the buyback. was it a huge outperformance on the rates business, or in fx? and to do you expect 2023 to be an equitable year for volatility in that space? >> if you look at the levers in 22, it was macro where all the things were driving. also towards year-end, there was the commodities. so depending on what you see, there can be some drivers. if you look at how the macro will evolve, in europe, the ecb is ending the tltro, so that demand for term products will probably step up. so we anticipate there to be a solid demand this year. dani: just looking at your provisions, they are up about 50% on the year, though many would say it could be higher given the uncertainty in this environment. what are you worried about, what is the biggest risk moving forward this year? lars: if we look at a work to

qualify what we see this year, it would be look through, it could be look through slowdown or stagnation, but whatever, we consider it to be look through. that means we will have a couple of quarters, let's say until summer, that might be more impacted when it comes to growth. but after the summer, we anticipate it to pick up again, so that means for a bank like bnp paribas that is focused on institutionals and corporates, we anticipate that those next quarters will be a point of attention, but there will be a pickup thereafter. that's basically the point we are following how that unfolding takes place. manus: we will pick up on the tailwinds, the canceling of tltro's will mean a pickup in product demand. when we look at the buyback, the market will be pleased with that 5 billion euros, 4 billion from

the sale of bank of the west, and 960 two from ordinary shareholder return policy. guide the market this morning on buybacks. can we assume this was an exceptional, and that we will see more scalable buybacks from parbias over the normal of 962 million? lars: basically, the bank is very solid, so on a recurring basis, we return 60% of earnings, 50% in cash dividend, 10% in buyback. that's basically what we do. now given the sale of bank of the west, there is an additional 4 billion. in total, we have a bottom line profit record level of 10.2 billion, and what we basically returned to shareholders this year will be roughly that same amount, 10 billion, 4.8 in cash dividend, and five billion in share buyback, that is this

year, and thereafter it will be the recurring 60% return to shareholders that will take place. dani: there's been an immense amount of rate volatility over the past year. we heard from adam lagarde at the last ecb press are another 50 basis points is likely on its way. what sort of height levels -- hike levels are you preparing for this year? lars: the central banks around the world, they prefer to avoid runaway inflation. and take the risk of having a stagnation or something like that. they don't want the 1970's to recur. that's basically what we see, and what we are basically prepared for. for us, the main thing, we are helping clients to serve their clients. that's what they do. as i mentioned, we follow that closely.

the main thing is that the central banks avoid runaway inflation. manus: so just on the bonus outlook, rewarding the shareholders, you are talking about massive bonuses, what can you guide the staff, credit suisse are making a fumble we understand in talking to staff about bonuses, how can you guide the bonus pool at paribas? lars: you have seen that we have very solid results. we are a very solid bank, so everything will be in the logic of that. dani: so, no change then, lars? lars: basically, as we see it, we are in a bank, we are a flow bank, so we basically serve our clients when it comes to macro effects to the commodities and equities, so it is a flow

business, and that business is going well, the bank is well-capitalized, we did not take any risks. the far, is very low, so from that point of view, everything is contained, therefore the remuneration is part of that. dani: not giving us exact figures, lars, but we understand the positive position you are in. manus: solid innings by the bank, and for bonuses, we will take that, lars. dani: given that our capital position is so strong, i know that oranges looking at selling orange bank, is that something you are looking at at all? lars: we are very happy campers when it comes to the banking we are doing. as you know, we have additional proceeds from bank of the west. the way we want to redeploy this is by growing organically faster. this is the best we can do. we know the business. it has immediate bottom-line impact.

so that is what we prefer to do. on top of that, maybe we want to buy some technology, but intrinsically we are not interested in buying anything that has the word bank in it. manus: that's a fairly emphatic point, anything with the word bank is not in it, but that doesn't preclude attack operation. what is going to drive the profitability? it is the holy grail, it is fic, or is it going to be the other side of the bank? another part of the bank. lars: we are very diversified. if you wish, there is cib which had a strong year, the so-called commercial and personal banking activities. and also, the asset management and related activities. so basically, we are growing all of them. that's basically what we are doing, so the year 2022 is the bank growing very solid earnings.

we keep rolling out that model, growing, on top of that, we boosted with the proceeds of bank of the west, and on top of that further stimulated by the rising interest rates. those are basically the elements why we topped out our returns, so the bottom line increasing year after year more than 9%. and of the earnings per share on top of the share buyback goes to 12% year on year. manus: lars, we wish you well. thank you for joining us live. we hope to make it a regular feature with you. it wasn't that bad, you can breathe now, that is lars machenil, bnp paribas chief financial officer. we wish you well, sir, come back again. coming up, is it time to pause for thought, is there a regime change in markets? will powell reinforce the plastic narrative of higher for longer -- bostic narrative of higher for longer?

this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: the next hour, anna edwards has got the bp ceo, what can he do in terms of buybacks and dividends? shell gives $4 billion, bernard, show us the money. dani: plus, we will speak to the teller -- tellurian ceo at indian energy week. anna edwards and mark cudmore take over from here. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: