dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london

alongside manus cranny in dubai, with the stories that set your agenda. manus: tough talk, fed officials tell a hawkish line saying inflation is not beaten. asian stocks and futures head into the green after yesterday's mauling on wall street. disney shares jump in late trade after an announcement of restructuring of nearly $5 billion of cost cuts, 7000 layoffs, the ceo by a biker looks to improve -- ceo bob iger looks to improve margins. the landers has substantial pretax losses will happen this year along with massive outflows in the fourth quarter. nanny, very good morning, straight to the headlines. more losses to come for 2023, substantial losses, and they are

saying they were supposed to study these outflows, we said $88 billion at the beginning of the third quarter it is 110.5. dani: citing specifically wealth management performance will make it difficult to execute their strategy. but one vote of confidence, the board is proposing a five sent frank's per chair -- cent francs per share. manus: and there is an $800 million pretax gain from the apollo sale that they made. more on credit suisse later on. the ceo sitting down with francine as we speak, at 11:00 a.m. dubai time. dani, that is going to be 7:00 a.m. your time in the united kingdom, 8:00 a.m. central european time, let's see whether they have steadied the ship in terms of flow of money. what else have we got, a

blistering hour of conversation. dani: we're going to speak to roland busch, chief executive of siemens at 6:30 a.m. u.k. time, that will be followed closely by the volvo car ceo at 6:40 a.m. we have to turn to the broader markets, the four horsemen of the fed akaka lips -- fed apocalypse is what i have decided to call them. waller with a hawkish mikovits -- hawkish message yesterday to shakeup his equity market. manus: you would almost have thought we had a conversation on the phone at 4:00 a.m. i've got down the rabbit, you've got the four horsemen of the apocalypse. the fedpocalypse, go on, i've got it down is the irreverence of the bond market. this is the irreverence of the bond market, because the bottom

line is that rhetoric came out and yields continue to drop. steven major says, it has further to go in terms of yields declining this year. dani, good morning. dani: good morning, manus. and that chunky auction yesterday for the 10-year yield, the bond, that is, a lot of demand. let me take you through equity markets. we did see a giveback in american stocks yesterday, though they are finally starting to come back both in the futures market and the msci pacific trade. i want to mention adani, the msci right now investigating the free float for adani. long story short, it could change the weighting of adani in passive indices. we are seeing closer positioning to neutral. we have to talk about one of the more difficult stories we've

been tracking every day this week. it is the humanitarian crisis that's unfolding in turkey. as officials try to contain that humanitarian crisis, they are trying to contain the financial risk. we need to also talk about what's happening in the turkish equity market. they have closed the equity market for five days, trading will resume february 15, following panic selling of about 35 billion dollars worth of turkish equities. manus: that is the first time we have seen them do that in 24 years. this is about trying to bring some level of stability in the financial side of the equation, which allows them more time and opportunity to deal with what is a humanitarian crisis on the ground. we now morph to a discussion of the economy on turkey. let me take you through the cross asset narrative. i said a reference of the bond market, they were utterly

irreverent to the hawkish narrative from the fed, the short end of the curve trips higher, big bearish bets that yields could get to 6% that are down in the options market. how real is that? major at hsbc says don't put too much store on options trades, and when they make a sizable number of pips, they take the trade-off. we are the most inverted since the 1970's. the dollar rolls down by an 8%. kit dukes has got to correct himself on his biases. there are a whole host of things that have happened, of black swans, is the dollar's nadir really in the making? and oil, we've put on 7% in the last few sessions and are still up in eight couple percent. dani: let's get to our top stories with reporters from around the world. we will talk about the latest

fed speak, disney cutting jobs, and the u.s.'s top diplomat warning that the chinese balloon is part of a global spying effort. manus: a chorus of fed speakers singing from the same song sheet, interest rates will have to move higher and stay longer to bring down stubbornly high inflation. dan moss is with us, dani has been very irreverent, what did you call him? dani: the fedpocalypse, only because four of them spoke yesterday. manus: how hawkish was it, dan? >> less hawkish than dani is making it out. she is being a little harsh. it's important not to lose sight that we are approaching a pause. is it going to be next meeting? probably not. one after that? potentially fair game. when you are at a turning point

you need to be careful who at the fed listen to. for my money, the person to pay closest attention to in the past 24 hours is john williams of the new york fed, he is part of the triumvirate, ruling group, however you want to characterize them. he did not to my mind say anything that changes the central scenario that you've got an estimated terminal rate of between five and 5.25 on the fed funds rate. i didn't hear anything that deterred that narrative from the person among the four that matters the most. dani: thank you for checking my own biases. bloomberg opinions dan moss. one other story we have our eye on, disney received enthusiastic applause from investors as it announced a dramatic restructuring that includes cutting 7000 jobs and finding $5.5 billion in savings.

alex webb joins us now for more. a bit of restructuring news received well by investors here. >> yes, absolutely, we've seen disney pivot under pressure from an activist investor a few years ago towards being more of a growth stock. it invested in growing disney plus. interest rates have increased. growth stocks have been punished. we have another activist investor in the form of nelson peltz agitating. the ceo has been replaced by the old ceo, he is saying we will not just grow at any cost. and 7000 people unfortunately losing their jobs, $5.5 billion in costs, operating expenses are on the order of $75 billion, that is about 8% of their operating costs.

and shares are reacting positively. manus: part of the issue here is you've got tech, you've got media all going through massive changes, and this is where the disconnect is between what is happening in reality in the economy, and what is happening in markets. alphabet dropped the most in three months, what drove that narrative? >> so we've seen, chatgpt has been garnering a huge amount of buzz. it is backed by microsoft, and microsoft is incorporating chatgpt into its services, not least bing, which is very much the correlation to google search, and the biggest competitor. google showed its can editor to chatgpt which it called bard yesterday, and it wasn't promising. it has really sent a shudder

through investors. google could have an amazing thing, but it has shown it and it is more disappointing than people expected, so they are seeing increasing threat when it comes to microsoft in search, and be crucial advertising dollars that come from that. manus: sometimes the first dance does not go well, and then we learn to step differently. bloomberg's alex webb up on disney and alphabet. the u.s. is the high chinese balloon it shot down last week is part of a years-long, global surveillance effort by beijing. >> this was an air responsible act in response to wish we acted responsibly and prudently to protect our interests. we already shared information with dozens of countries both from washington and our embassies. we are doing so because the united states is not the only

target of this program which has violated the sovereignty of countries across five continents. manus: the schedule rebecca choong wilkins, joining us for more, this is the americans finding the offramp. now we just need to meet the chinese halfway up, rebecca, good day. >> i think it might be early to say that the u.s. is really striking a significant conciliatory note. if you were expecting balloons to be not front and center in the u.s.-china relationship, you will be disappointed. biden and blinken both overnight seem to be using this event to underscore china's global surveillance push, what it sees as a years-long program. it's interesting, too, that blinken has somewhat public way embraced the spectacle of the balloon, and has told reporters the u.s. has been speaking to

countries it believes have also been targeted by this surveillance program. the thing to watch now is what we see revealed as blinken and the pentagon discuss what precisely they found from the retrieved debris from this balloon. dani: as you rightly say, it goes further than the u.s. we had blinken and oppressor with stoltenberg, who also talked about similar spying happening in europe. there are a lot of details around this that continue to be unfolding in the coming days, what else are we looking out for? >> there's two big things, the first is precisely what level of capacity it looks like the chinese military have once we get to analysis of that balloon. lincoln has suggested that analysis will be made public by the u.s., though if it can make pictures, what types of cameras and lenses, if it can

communicate with beijing, how is it communicating, that is on the technology side. and they will be looking to see whether the u.s. and its allies have perhaps inadvertently supplied any of the technology to make this balloon. finally, we will also be watching to see if any other countries are now drawn into this. now blinken has started to name certain regions that have been targeted, europe, but also asia, southeast asia, for instance, will we see response from any other countries being drawn into this brawl with the u.s. and china? dani: now coming up, some traders are betting on a fed rate peak of 6%. that trade being put on tuesday. what data would need to push us there? manus: plus, we have a stellar lineup of guests this

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>> the market is now repriced to limit what the fed outlined in their summary of expectations. they are pricing 25 in march and 25 in may, that is what fed officials have been promising so we are pretty much in alignment. >> we are seeing that effort pay off, but we have farther to go. it might be a long fight, with interest rates higher for longer than some are currently

expecting. but i will not hesitate to do what is needed to get my job done. we're seeing that effort begin to pay off, but we have farther to go. and it might be a long fight, with interest rates higher for longer than some are currently expecting. but i will not hesitate to do what is needed to get my job done. manus: fed voices adding to the chorus that rates will have to move, guess what? higher, guess what again, for longer, dani. dani: it something we have heard before but perhaps markets are waking up to the fed. let's get to our guest this half-hour, alberto gallo, cio and cofounder of andromeda capital management. really great to have you back on the program, back with the new fund, we love it. i was joking earlier, calling them the four horsemen of the fedpocalypse, but they have not

change their tone since december, but this market has changed, have you changed your positioning? alberto: we think the fed is not done. they will have to hike higher and keep rates higher for longer. markets are still complacent. in the last meeting, there has been almost a policy error. jay powell has been very complacent, his body language was very relaxed. but the reality is unemployment at a 50 year low, the housing and used car market bottoming. so there are signs look witty -- liquidity has made its way through the system since the perceived pivot we had last year. credit spreads at a low, equity markets at a high, and financial conditions are back to loose levels. so, the fed now needs to be more credible. they need to keep rates higher for longer, but probably they need to go higher in terms of level. and markets are very misplaced

here. markets are very complacent. we have credit spreads close to low levels. we are back to goldilocks pricing in markets. and we have a whatever high fed hike coming. manus: don't be responsible for killing goldilocks on your first return to daybreak. good to have you back. here's the thing, fx and bond vol is dropping, and we have cracking stories about options traders piling in and going short rates, saying, it will get to 6%, do you think there is any possibility that fed will need to get there because you talk about a new paradigm in the unemployment market. what is the risk the fed may need to break that soft ceiling of 5.1, and even counten ance something beyond 5.5. alberto: currently the market is

pricing cuts after june. it is pricing 35-40 bips of cuts, that is already something wrong. the rates market has a tendency to price cuts whenever the fed talks, but we think that is too much. we have no recession in this scenario, no cuts. but the risk is symmetric, there is as much risk or even more, that the fed has to hike further than 5.25 versus risk of recession or slowdown where the fed has to cut this year. where we stand, we think markets are pretty complacent, if you look at stocks, corporate bonds, end rates, we are taking the view that financial conditions half to tighten again. this is about demand. it is not about supply bottlenecks that have eased, it is about the consumer and government demand. dani: to that point of mismatches in markets.

i know the market is pricing cuts, but just the terminal rate pricing has moved higher, yet 10-year yields are moving the opposite direction, there is still demand. i wonder if there is some degree where the yield is too juicy to pass up, we are finally getting some yield, that's the chart we're showing, and that accounts for the disconnect. alberto: there is a disconnect across markets, the rates market is pricing recession, a temporary inflation stock followed by cuts. but equity and corporate bond markets are not pricing that recession. we think the rates market is too tight, yields are too inverted. but this is also linked to the fed's credibility. if you think about the drivers of nation, -- drivers of inflation, we talked a lot about transitory and supply shocks. we know there is no ship to the l.a. bay, but what we are underestimating is the resilience of the consumer and government spending.

the consumers still have 1.6 trillion in excess savings. government spending is running at 4.5 to 5% this year in europe and the u.s., there is no mention of the word austerity anywhere. let's remember that political choices are shifting. finally, there is deglobalization, china reopening, that means more demand but also tensions with china means there will be more on shoring. this drives policy. central banks tried to boost inflation for 15 years and did not manage to do that. now they are trying to reign in inflation but fiscal policy is pushing the other way. some states in the u.s. are giving people anti-inflation checks, which is adding fuel to the fire, so it is hard to reduce fiscal stimulus once you put it in the system. then it is nothing more than a government assistance program.

manus: i will send you the paper, 20 pages long, written by adam blinder, he says it is about the long, variable lags, that is what the fed are banking on. you say the curve is too inverted, so -- and you talk about inflationary and fiscal spending, so do i short companies and do you want to be long on credit, but where on the spectrum do you want to be long? alberto: that's the point, we are going into an environment of state capitalism. the biggest question for allocators is will the world come back to what was pre-covid? it's not, there is a big difference which is fiscal spending is permanent. lemuel -- millennials are breaking the oldest role in politics, which is if you are not liberal at 25, you have no heart. millennials are still on the

left, they want more spending. with more bailouts, like italy, or burger king in france, all these companies are getting government help, government balance sheets grow. it is not good to buy sovereign debt below inflation, so we want to be short rates, short govies, and you want to buy the credit that benefits from that. credit today gives you between eight and 12% yield on pretty large names. and that's a multiple of inflation, with half the volatility of stocks, that's a pretty compelling turn, vol adjusted we are talking 15 to 20%. an at equity -- and an equity investor would love that. we need to be selective after this rally but there is plenty of opportunities. manus: you just need to create the retail fund so people like me can be part of it. alberto, thank you very much. the millennials will be on you,

if you are not liberal at 25 you have no heart, and if you are not conservative at 35, you have no brain. careful alberto, they are coming for you. co-founder at andromeda capital management. coming up, the german industrial delivers upbeat guidance for the year. on bloomberg. ♪

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manus: it is "daybreak: europe".

i'm in dubai with dani burger in london hq with the stories that set your agenda. dani: fed officials tow a hawkish line, saying inflation is not beaten. but asian stocks edge into the green after yesterday's wall street selloff. a spoonful of sugar, disney shares jump in late trade after it announces dramatic restructuring including $5.5 billion of cost cuts as the ceo looks to improve margins. plus, credit suisse's fourth-quarter net loss is worse than expected, nearly 1.4 billion swiss francs, the lender sees a substantial pretax loss this year amid mass outflows. manus: we are in full swing of reporting season. siemens has raised full-year guidance after a strong first quarter, holding up despite the dimming global outlook marked by inflation and supply chain problems. tom mackenzie sat down with the

ceo. >> we have high gross margin in our business. if revenue comes, this turns into profitability. we also said, as long as we are not sure about the market, if there is recession coming, we said, please hold tight on your spending. we are still very careful in order to have the right visibility, in case something happens, we don't spend too much. but so far, coming back to increasing our guidance at the top line, we believe we can keep momentum for the rest of the year. >> we saw surprise drop in industrial production out of germany for december, are you seeing slowdown in the industrial sector? how concerned are you about that? >> the point is if you look at the markets, number one, customers want to go for reducing co2, more sustainable

business on the one side. secondly, you have a low labor in the market, you see that everywhere, that calls for automation and digitalization, that's exactly what our portfolio is doing. we are leading in automation, we have one of the strongest industrial software businesses, and we are framing sustainability from efficiency in buildings, but also green transport and mobility. so we see a poll from the market, this is the reason it makes us confident we can deliver for our customers and keep momentum. >> where does that leave you and the team at siemens in terms of your assessment of the recession risk in europe? >> if it comes to energy, obviously, it is getting better than expected. the gas storage is filled, energy prices coming down, also we see protection from gdp in germany. currently it is a little bit

above zero. so, there is a slight chance that we are not going into recession in germany. therefore, i do believe the sentiment which was quite negative is now a little more positive looking forward. >> both the eu and u.s. looking to reduce dependencies on china. it's a major market for you and the team at siemens, have you had any discussions about reducing investments in that market? any discussion about moving production from china to other countries? >> what we do is we are going to diversify our market access, at the same time, doubling down on our strengths. we have a very strong position in china, roughly 30 or 40% of revenue is coming from china, and we are doubling down on that strength. we keep on capturing market share, expanding our business. at the same time, we're diversifying.

we invested 3 billion in india for looking motives. we have a huge footprint in the united states. if the inflation reduction act supports green technologies, we are there, so we will expand our market there as well. customers want to move from anyplace to mexico, for example, next low cost country next to the united states, we are there. this is the strength of siemens, global presence, and we can serve our customers, whoever wants to diversify can go with siemens technology. >> you are under pressure from some investors around moving away from being a conglomerate, heavy discuss the facts or -- faster -- have you discuss the faster exit from your health care businesses? >> regarding portfolio companies, we execute one by one and now we are combining our

digital business and combining into one of the strong players there. secondly, we are looking for the right timing to set our stakes there, and for other avenues, we supported our health business with strong financing to acquire a company for 16 billion, now we are looking for the synergies and the return on this investment for our shareholders. we are quite happy for that business, at the same time, siemens sits on a technology-based. is it digitalization technology, cybersecurity, power electronics, and the like, all of our businesses are benefiting and this includes health, too. we are a technology platform which can have all of our businesses going faster and making a difference. dani: the siemens ceo speaking with bloomberg's tom mackenzie after the earnings report. we need to turn to one of the

more difficult stories to pay attention to. turkey will open two new border crossings with syria to ease the passage of aid from europe. that as the death toll from monday's massive earthquake surpasses 14,000. simin demokan joins us from istanbul. authorities are still grappling with the humanitarian crisis unfolding. >> the death toll has actually totaled on both the turkish and syrian side to almost 15,700. and almost 13,000 is from the turkish side. both turkish president erdogan, and his u.s. counterpart joe biden, have called this the worst disaster in a century. survivors spent their third freezing night, and it is a race against time to find more

trapped in the rubble. international rescue teams are still at the scene, as well as thousands of turkish soldiers. president erdogan visited the disaster zone yesterday, and he promised to rebuild within a year. of course, it's a election year, elections are still scheduled for may 14. manus: and simin, good day to you, this is when the story progresses from the imagery in terms of the reality on the ground to the financial repercussions, and they need to shore up finances, and deliver unprecedented action in the equity market. the exchange suspending trade for five days, what are the implications of that? >> analysts we have spoken to say during such a catastrophic incident, it is the best thing

to do to halt trading, in order to protect investors and calm nerves. over the past three days, 35 billion u.s. dollars was wiped off the index value. wednesday's trade has been canceled, still $21 billion has been wiped off the value since the earthquake happened on monday. financial markets in turkey were headed towards their worst trading week since the financial crisis in 2008. of course, this isn't the first time that trading has been halted on bourse istanbul, the same thing happened in 1999 after another devastating earthquake. manus: simin demokan on the latest in turkey from istanbul. it's a beat for volvo cars, it

says expect robust demand for electric vehicles to bolster demand this year. jim rowan joins dani and i next. ♪

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dani: volvo cars' fourth quarter earnings have beaten expectations on searching ev sales. despite inspecting solid double-digit growth in full year retail sales, the company is warning of a challenging 2023 ahead. joining now is jim rowan, ceo of volvo cars. great to catch up this morning. i see, you say you are hopeful that covid-related supply shortages from china are behind you. it is part of your if you forward. to start this year, has the supply chain crunch eased at all in january? jim: we have started to see

supply turbulence ease off in the second half of 2022, so we had a 15% increase in production flow comparing the first half to the second half of 2022, and we expect that to continue to improve. however the first half of still be tart sealant -- turbulent here and there. thankfully, that has come to an end. that is a big boost as we enter 2023. manus: good morning to you. 11% of full year sales were attributed to fully electric vehicles, that's 4% in 2021, 11% in 2022, give me your ambitions for 2023, and what would hamper you from getting there? jim: we were pleased, first of all with demand for electric

vehicles, that's the highest demand across our whole product range now is for fully electric vehicles. even with disturbances we mentioned earlier in the supply chain in 2022, we still managed to move that from 4% in 2021 to 11% in 2022. if you isolate q4, our numbers were 18% of electric vehicles in q4 alone, and in just december, that grew to 20%. all of that bodes well for our ambitions to become a fully electric car company five 2039, and halfway thereby 2025. dani: tesla has cut prices as much as 20% in some regions. ford had to take a knock on some prices for their ev's, what does your ev pricing look like? have you had to put discounts in this market like some peers? jim: no, we haven't.

we keep a real io consumer-- eye on consumer sentiment. our demand for electric vehicles remains high, so we don't see pricing pressure. we operate in the premium segment of the market, so maybe it is different. manus: did you just have a date at all your competitors -- dig at all your competitors? he just took a swipe at all of them. jim: no, but there is a premium segment for the market, that is where we focus. one of the dynamics you see that is more protected against demands for price reductions. manus: brazil, uruguay, thailand and in need it did well for it -- and indonesia did well for you in the back quarter. that's emerging markets, what are they doing better about

delivering infrastructure to make me want to buy an electric vehicle? i'm one of those people that maybe has skepticism on a range, although i've been in a few that are gorgeous, of the high-end ones. what are they doing better in emerging markets that we are not doing in g10 or g20? jim: not just emerging markets, we are encouraged to see so many markets above 80% what we call reach, that includes plug-in electric hybrids, and we have markets that are above 80% of recharge. i think the message is starting to get to the marketplace. when you are making a big purchase like a car, and you want to buy new technology that will hold value for the future. if you look at the underlying technology of electric vehicles versus internal combustion, then you see that there is a massive

benefit, there is less noise, less vibrations, and that message is starting to get through. when you have no infrastructure, and you have that message within the market, it becomes much easier to convert that market to fully electric and that is happening in those countries now. not just southeast asia but even places like latin america. dani: to these new developments, jim, yesterday, manus wanted me to buy him a shiny bracelet, so i fear manus will ask me to buy him a shiny new car. but i'm wondering, how many cars will you launch in the coming years, what shiny volvo will i have to buy manus for his birthday? jim: i won't suggest which one, but you definitely should buy him one. one of the things we saw we felt

we needed to do in the electrification market is launch a smaller suv. that will take us to a new demographic we don't often talk to, it will be more affordable, we will sell it on subscription which makes it more affordable for first-time buyers, and we will launch the ex90. so we have a smaller suv, a figure one, and in addition, we will release one brand-new fully electric car every year for the next three or four years. so you have a nice choice of vehicle when you are making that decision which one to buy. [laughter] manus: she spoils me, do you know that? i intend to bankrupt her before it is all said and done. as you were speaking on subscription, you are going to make the smaller suv on subscription -- do i need to shift how i buy a car? will we go to a 80-90%

subscription model, take me 10 years forward on pricing the car. jim: you will see that in different parts of the world. we see that already with fleet sales versus people on lease. it is another option for ordering a car, and i think the subscription model will be very popular in certain markets, less popular in others. our whole ecosystem -- -- ethos is to give the customer the choice. that is why we have the volvo on-demand product as well where you can subscribe for as little as one day to own a volvo car for a short period of time. dani: before we let you go, jim, you are talking about exciting things in the pipeline, changes for the consumer, what is the biggest risk for the consumer? jim: it is the underlying

inflation, watch consumer sentiment. high energy prices, the uncertainty and turbulence in microeconomics at this particular point in time. hopefully that columns down, but that will be the underlying risk as consumer sentiment changes because of that turbulence which seems to be increasing in certain parts of the world, that's what i see is the major risk. manus: a candid warning, and something we watch on the macro level and trades right on the micro level. jim, good sport. let's see what kind of discount you can give, dani, i am open to all different sizes. we don't do so well with electric vehicles here. that is the ceo of volvo cars this morning. credit suisse is having clients put money leave at a record

right. we get the numbers. on bloomberg. ♪

dani: manus: ukrainian president vladimir is headed to brussels following a surprise trip to london and paris where he met the leaders. maria tadeo is covering this summit for us. really good to have you with us.

very powerful imagery of zelenskyy meeting his royal highness, the king, and rishi sunak yesterday. >> very powerful. that political message to say please give us wings, we want to get the fighter jets to be able to claim back our territories that have been in dispute. because the war continues in many ways, more brutal than ever. the east of the country. in paris yesterday he met with the french president. he was also with the german chancellor. and today we expect he will be here in brussels. manus, there has been a lot of secrecy around the trip for security reasons. at the start of the war, he was very explicit, i am the number one target when it comes to individuals for russia. and next comes my wife. but overall for ukrainian authorities, the risk is worth taking. coming here today, volodymyr

zelenskyy will get time with european officials, talk to the head of every european institution, plus the 27 european leaders who are also expecting he will address the european parliament. the timing is in the air, but we will review updates as they come in. and the message he wants to send to the european people that the war is not over and the fight continues. dani: the timing in general, why do this trip to brussels now? >> yes, there has been an open invitation now for a year. initially, there were concerns about security, particularly at the start of the war, the security and potential threats to his life. outside of ukraine, it is difficult to manage external risks. now ukrainians feel that as we approach the one-year mark of the invasion, this is the time

to infuse momentum and stand with ukraine to make sure that for europeans, this is something to remind europe that the fight is on. that's a political message. but behind the scenes, there will once again be this idea of weapons for ukraine. officials fear there could be a severe sprain offensive -- spring offensive. once again repeating that the weapons will be needed sooner rather than later. dani: that's maria tadeo in brussels. manus, as we head to the end of the hour, we have to shout out to a longtime viewer who flagged us, riksbank is having their decision at 830 van london time -- 8:30 london time today. manus: to be fair, it was a hard call between dollar-yen, and the

governor at the top of the show. it was not that we did not see it. this is probably the worst currency in the g10. we are at a 14-year low against the euro earlier this week, so they are going ahead with that regardless is the baseline assumption. there is your noki, you can see the trajectory of the euro is up, and be noki is declining in that respect. whoever put in a 20-year chart, big shout out to you. that's what you call longevity. credit suisse battered, bruised... dani: i was saying, 12 digit outflow figure -- manus: 110 billion. dani: not pretty big, massive.

manus: when we wrote this original story about outflows at the beginning of the fourth quarter, it was at 88 billion, so that 110.5 billion is critical. what does that mean for bonuses and job cuts? they were talking about significant job cuts between now and 2025? they have the capital. that's why there is a teeny tot of the dividend. that is signaling to the market that we have our capital intact. we have a strategy, whether you believe it or not. and we're prepared to give a teeny tiny tot of the dividend. dani: some confidence in the capital position. when it comes to compensation, we learned the cfo today said variable compensation is down about 50%. but i'll tell you about one person who will get a payout, it

is then you ceo -- the new ceo of the spinoff of first boston. as part of that, credit suisse will acquire his boutique investment bank, paying about $175 million for it, much of that will go into the pocket of klein. there are 40 employees as well as the boutique investment bank which credit suisse is purchasing. manus: for everybody that has a terminal, hop on your tliv, it is going down from the various commentary. our senior editor on the news desk, they see positive signs of that. that's going to go some way. let's see how the market reacts to that. the credit rating side of the business is also important and they talk about that in the tliv.

the downgrades and ratings have increased borrowing costs, limited our ability to renew maturing short-term funding. this goes to the heart of why 110 -- that is one of the things to bear in mind. dani: and i highly recommend you look at that blog. stephen points of this was the fifth consecutive quarter were neither was at a single positive result last year. evidently a painful one, a loss of 21 point five billions was frakes. francine lacqua caught up with the cfo, all rich corner -- ulrich koerner. >> that is why we have created a new transformation problem, which we communicated at the end of october. this was built around client