dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak europe".

happy friday. i am here with manus cranny. manus: china's core cpi sees the biggest jump since june of this consumer demand revives amid the lunar new year holiday. prices continue to decline. south africa's president declares a state of disaster over the country's worsening energy shortages. we speak shortly to the pravin jamnadas gordhan pravin jamnadas gordhan prizes,. stocks slide as the treasury yield inversion reaches the widest something 1980's. a more hawkish fed. good morning, the 1980's were great for hairdos, makeup, boy george, and of course a really malevolent bond market. dani: good morning. i tried to do a hairdo today, maybe i need to rethink that to it with the times. manus: i had a cliff in the

80's. dani: just tease it a little bit. i love what andy brunner said, you don't need the fed to have a bad day. sentiment following prices at this point. manus: steven major was with us yesterday, he said the harder and faster the fed pushed to the peak, the more confident that bond market will be that the equilibrium is lower. we know there is a monster out there just gorging on these option trades that rates could get to six if not even eight cents. that could come unstuck very quickly, or someone could make a mountain of money on valentine's day. dani: the question continues to be, to equity and bond markets disconnect? yesterday, they did fall, we are seeing that weakness today. we are looking at an msci asia-pacific index. a lot of the adani stocks are down today, for yet another day.

msci did cap the amount of free fluoro -- cut the amount of free throw. a bunch of technical ways to say, it will have a smaller waiting, so the passive money will be pulling out. s&p 500 futures, another day in the red. here we have adani actually, a little bit higher. some of the other adani stocks are moving lower. enterprise is performing a bit better. we will talk about this story a bit more. at one point in the hong kong trade, stanchart was up. they are looking at buying the company, some of those gains coming back in for the hong kong trade. manus: it is whether they will come back for a second potential bite of the cherry after we scooped the story that they were looking at in the first instance. that put the new rules on for the u.k.. of course, still looking moderately cheap at 0.5 six.

across the assets, we have checked the deepest yield curve inversion since the 1980's. the question is, how high will the terminal rate be? there is your short end of the curve as it were at 448. goldman sachs, they didn't throw in the towel, they just shaved five bucks off the pricing. they are just shaving off the overall trajectory on price for this morning. the dollar-yen, we have the petén tate making noise that maybe it time to throw off yield curve control and that everything remains a appropriate to continue with the current easing. there is no need to make yield curve control more flexible for now. let's keep an eye on dollar-yen. if he is appointed as the next

head of the central bank. dani: of course, we will find out on the 14th, what a romantic valentine's day gift. let's get to our reporters around the world. we are in hong kong to cover the china inflation story. we will also talk about south energy crisis, and simone foxman will talk more about the charter deal for us. manus: let's deal with inflation first from china. this is the lunar new year spur demand. let's get to our china economy editor, it is jill. the uptick in the consumer side of the inflation narrative, is that all to do with the burst of opening up and the release valve from common zero? -- covid zero. jill: that is at least one factor. we were expecting an uptick in

consumer inflation, the 2.1% is broadly in line with economists expectations. they are saying it is probably because of the uptick in consumer spending. china emerged from covid zero, lunar new year fell in january, everyone is traveling, spending money, they are going to movie theaters and all kinds of things. that is driving up demand, which is putting that pressure on those prices. what we did also see is a pretty big uptick in food prices in january. i think it was north of 6%. that certainly had a pretty significant impact on what that overall cpi number looked like. if you looked at core cpi, it was only 1%, year on year. not a crazy acceleration of what we are seeing the month before. overall, it is still pretty decent. maybe not as high as some economists would have liked. overall, you have to remember

that china's inflation numbers are nowhere near the skyhigh prices that we were seeing elsewhere in the world. generally, we are looking to see some kind of up creep over the next few months. dani: jill, thank you very much. china economy editor. south africa has declared a state of disaster over the country's ongoing energy crisis. the president said in his state of the union. the power shortage has caused immense damage to the economy. >> our most immediate task is to dramatically reduce the severity of low shedding in the coming months and ultimately, to and low shedding altogether. under these conditions, we cannot proceed as we usually would. dani: let's get straight to our africa correspondent, jennifer. a state of disaster, what does

not actually mean? jennifer: i think we were all anticipating he might do this. he outlined what exactly this will mean. this will open up the needed support that the government says that they need in order to address this energy security issue that has been going on now for over 10 years. it has really gotten worse over the past few days, few months, as we have been talking about. when you talk about this speech in particular, yes, it was a state of the nation, but if you look at this age as a whole, it was a state of the energy security. just looking at some of the stocks that we found, the president mentioned energy 23 times, and crisis 20 times. that is notable, because as we know, international investors as well as those lee, are focused on this energy security problem. the president has not been able to address this. they said there has been a lot of red tape and issues from the government side. hearing the president talk about

some of the plans that may be in place because of this state of disaster, it is may be welcome news for. what will really be the test is what we will see going forward, considering he created the new post foreign minister to take some of these issues on. manus: we look forward to that interview. it comes down to the size of that data. we will keep an eye on that interview. we look forward to listening to that with you and gordon a little later. the abu dhabi bank here in the uae says it is not evaluating a possible offer for standard charter. it soared following the scoop that the lender was pressing ahead with a potential bid. let's get to our reporter on the ground, simone foxman. operation the fox trot is a myth , they are not continuing with a bid.

can we trust the pushback from fab? simone: trust but verify. i think that is important when you look at the context, the timeline we have had. remember in early january, january 5, bloomberg reporting that the fab had looked at a potential acquisition of standard chartered. fab came out shortly thereafter and said, we are not looking at that right now. that set up a ticking clock about six months, where the u.k. and hong kong rules set some restrictions on how it can bid for standard charter if it were to re-up that desire. yesterday, we got this new scoop from bloomberg reporters across the world, now fab is coming in and saying, we are still not looking, that sets new clock. six months for these restrictions to go into place. you can get around them, there are loop oles. things like the

board approving a potential takeover offer, another takeover offer from a potential -- potential suitor on the horizon. all those things would potentially allow fab to come back to the table. what is clear, abu dhabi, interested in getting in to this global investment banking game, even if it cost them 30 to $35 billion, they are particularly interested in standard charter. we are still seeing shares up about 3%, even though it is not the 9% we saw earlier. dani: certainly a step up from other gulf nations who have taken minority stakes in credit suisse. thank you so much. let's take a look at some of the key things that we are going to be watching out for today. in a little under an hour, we will get u.k. gdp data. at 2:00 p.m., that she'll just chief economist will be speaking on a panel. manus: 3:00, university of

michigan survey, later in the day, the comments from two more fed members. we have chris and patrick appearing at a crypto conference in california. they have still got those? coming up, credit valley is in focus. we will discuss that next. dani: we will also discuss the corporate story of l'oreal's for her earnings, with sales growth surpassing a notation's. despite a bumpy road in china. sales, 8.1% higher on the comparable basis in the last owner of 2022. estimate was for 6.8%. off the back of that, we will have an interview with the ceo, nicholas, later today at 10:45. this is bloomberg. ♪

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manus: does the credit markets deep rally mean it is time to play a little bit of defense? we have some money managers changing their strategy after a sharp rally in the next few weeks on these assets. are they still something --gordon shannon, let's see what he has got to say. with alberto gallo standing in the very same pitch as you, he said there is a complacency, we are deluded. the goldilocks, it is just too much. would you agree that credit has run a little bit too far, too fast, too furious? good morning. gordon: certainly been a a lot of euphoria coming into this year. there are some good justifications, inflation has peaked, the energy crisis in europe has abated, china has rode back on covid zero.

we have gone too far in a number of places. this isn't the year for us to chase capital gains. did i think it is all about income. that means that you can look to yield, starting yields are a lot higher. if you look at a five-year period, that is 90% of my job, but you have got to be selective. dani: you are going not totally on the yield story, you are perhaps looking away from the lowest rated high-yield on. are you fearful of this default cycle? will it look ugly? is that why you avoid that at the moment? gordon: yeah, i think at this point, the market has got complacent. there is talk of a soft landing, but ultimately i think inflation will so you need to make sure that you can stand up and hold together through a recession. manus: we know that you are a bit of a doom stir on the u.k.,

but here is a bit. you say while u.k. growth is worse than the u.s., still a hunting ground for investors in the u.s.. this is about timing, or about a baseline? the higher yields are there and i should take them in the u.k. relative to the u.s., or, it will get a lot, a lot worse in the u.k. and these yields are going to pop a little bit higher? gordon: i think it will get worse everywhere. you have got to think about that. the yields being higher to begin within the u.k., that is a nice starting point. that is a buffer. for me, it is also about the behavior of the consumer. if we look at the u.s. and the savings ratio, it has come down, and come down to levels that are almost all-time lows, about half the level that we were at pre-covid. in the u.k., although the savings ratio -- here i am talking about the percent of

household income that is being saved, although it has come down a lot, it is still well above the pre-covid levels. so consumers have still got something in the tank. that is what helps me to sleep at her at night, rather than fairytales about goldilocks being eaten by the three bears -- manus: you know i like her. but go on. gordon: being nervous. and therefore, acting prudently. that is what we need as fixed income investors. i particularly like u.k. bank debt, and i don't have to worry so much about long performing loans, when i know consumers still have something there to spend. dani: one fell swoop, you have just destroyed manus's childhood. in terms of looking at the b.o.e., looking at all the banks besides the fed, they are moving at its lower. we have mexico yesterday, the

central bank hike half a percent. which no economist saw coming. you just wonder if globally, we are under a hawkish cycle that has further to run. gordon: there is an idea that because the fed and the other central banks made mistakes through 2021 and into 2022, to make money, you just do the opposite. now they are saying they going to keep on hiking, are those hikes going to be hailed? traders are taking the opposite view. if you look at the playbook of the 1970's my the same mistakes were made, but then rates were held high. for that reason, i think we have to take a slightly more nuanced view. the fed cried wolf before, but this time the wolf israel. they tried transition era, they were wrong. they are talking about holding, i loved when you talk about the former fed. you have to listen to them, i

think they are telling the truth. manus: you have made her day, gordon. you get up that early to watch us, we like that. why, then, because this is the debate. nobody mentioned 50 basis points, and nobody mentioned moving that. it maybe wasn't as hawkish. they are just trying to hold the bond market up by their bootstraps, but they might not be as hawkish as some of those option traders. do you think it was just a readjustment of the narrative in the bond market? gordon: yeah, ultimately, you are at a transition every point. they do plan to pause very soon. they plan to pause rather than cutting. i think they have been a tad complacent, they need to shift that narrative a little bit,'s stock financial conditions from

easing too much. they are close to feeling they are done. the key is monetary policy comes with an eight to 12 month lag. we really don't know the level of pain that is going to be taken by the real economy yet. that is why i think markets have, in many areas, gone too far. dani: it is sort of a similar view then we got from deutsche bank. why would they cut rates, because they need to see what the impact has been. why would they do that? because of that, the call is 4.2% on the 10 year this year. gordon: it is very hard to call the 10 year. there are strong arguments it is fairly priced. i do think a recession is fairly likely. i think the two year house got further to go, we have to get above 5%. manus: adani bonds -- maybe they do fit in somewhere in some sort

of my new show portion of capital. we are trying to work out why you would buy adani bonds. i don't think anybody knows, or can remotely safely say they have all the information to make a valid investment in adani. that would be where i would stand. where do you stand? would you even speculate on adani debt? gordon:. i am a super boring scottish guy. i just don't mess about. dani: back i love that answer. fairytales and all. thank you so much for joining us this morning. enjoy the rest of your friday and your weekend. that is gordon shannon manager at twentyfour asset management. we will be speaking exclusively to the minister for public enterprises, pravin jamnadas gordhan. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: let's get to the first word news with simone. simone: thousands of aid workers are pouring into turkey and syria where deaths have now risen because 21,000. turkish president is facing mounting criticism over the countries for construction record and his government's response to the disaster. in syria, the first u.n. age -- ada shipment has arrived to give people temporary shelter. the u.s. says the balloon shot down last weekend was capable of collecting communication signals and was part of a chinese spy program that spanned more than 40 countries. bloomberg sources say u.s. officials told lawmakers the

balloon had some western rate components. beijing maintains it was a weather monitoring device. british billionaire jim ratcliff is said to have lined up banks including goldman sachs to finance a bid to buy manchester united. a source says the lenders are prepared to fund a takeover offer for the english football and loans, including covering menus existing $800 million of debt. shares in the company surge this week. global news, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm simone foxman. manus: you very much. it was a brand relationship that they say it built in heaven. i am talking about adidas tanks by 9% last night. this is the easy brand, it was

worth 1.2 billion euros of sales, looks like they will have to write off a chunk of change on that. they possibly have a loss this year of 700 million euros in 2023. dani: let us not forget that they called this the most successful line they have had in the company's history. perhaps in some way, they got dependent on this. i will doubt, bloomberg intelligence analyst says this is more than just the yeezy sale. it reflects a struggle to draw sales and get back some of the market share they have lost as the demand rises for the athleisure world. the market may be saying, we think you have more than a problem. manus: it has to be said, that relationship is a global story, kanye west collaboration was canceled because of a series of

anti-semitic and racist comments he made. there is a new ceo there, i wonder to what extent, he talked about this athlete retail partners and employees, i think you really got to run the risk from moving away from the uber brand, the uber supercool relationships. that is the question, we need to put the pieces back together again. dani: saying, i am convinced over time we will make adidas shine again. but, we need some time. it feels like we are hearing more executives speak in that way saying, we got these days, our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20 million xfinity customers, on us. so you get more of the speed you need for day and night streaming. more speed you need when you're work from homeing. and more speed you need as your family keeps growing.

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manus: it is your friday edition of "bloomberg daybreak europe".

the stories that your agenda. dani: inflation rebound, china's core cpi sees the biggest jump since june as consumer demand revives amid the lunar new year holiday. producer prices continue their decline. power crisis, south africa's president declares a state of disaster over the country's worsening energy shortages. we will be speaking shortly with the minister for look enterprises, pravin jamnadas gordhan. stocks and futures slide on treasury yield curve inversion, its widest since the 1980's as investors bet on a more hawkish fed. manus: south africa has declared a state of disaster over the country's ongoing energy crisis. the declaration may mean essential services like hospitals and water treatment plants will be exempt from blackouts. the shortages have dogged the country since 2008, and reached an unprecedented level.

they are suggested to rolling blackouts literally every single day so far this year. i've our colleague with a special guest. jen: i am here with pravin jamnadas gordhan. just after the president gave his state of the nation. thanks so much for joining us. let's start with that state of disaster declaration. walk us through exactly what that does. what does not open up for the government to do to address some of these blackouts that have been continuing for hours and hours in a day. pravin: good morning and thank you very much for having me. the last instance in which south africa and many other countries used [indiscernible] was during the covid pandemic. it was during this pandemic that the state of disaster allowed for certain flexibility in the application of rules,

regulations, it can speed up procurement, it can allow for negotiations, for example, the second-biggest powerstation, still under construction where we had an unfortunate accident, which rendered three units in operable. some urgent things that needed to be done in order to bring those three units back. we could add about 2000 megawatts to our system. this is a new law that allow some flexibility to cut the tape and make things move faster and not be bound to much by the current systems. at the same time, making sure that things are [indiscernible]. jen: you mentioned the red tape, which i think is interesting. we also heard the president of a new minister to oversee

electricity. to me, this looks like adding to the red tape. you already have a minister looking over as calm, energy, how do these two things work at the same time? pravin: very simply, the new ministry is looking quite specifically at the crisis of electricity. that means, firstly, making sure that the valuation part, which involves two things, one the current coal and nuclear, and then how those operate more effectively, and secondly, and more megawatts to private investment, which is already happening on a rapid scale. to make sure that comes up an online as much as possible. we need to acquire as many megawatts as possible from our neighboring countries for example. and ensure those are connected to the grid as well.

jen: what does that mean for your current role? pravin: what that means is that i am the shareholder minister. secondly, there are many other issues, as you know, that we are working on at the moment to put us in a better position. i met with the minister of finance, he will announce in a short while when the budget takes place, what we do with the debt. secondly, we have been in the progress since 2020 of restructuring the transmission and distribution. certainly, that will be a creation of the [indiscernible]. and firstly, they keep me updated, secondly, they need a massive extension to reach different parts of the country. in addition to that, we have also got to promote demand

management, in other words, people using electricity in the street, using more energy efficient as well. lastly, to promote as much as possible, rooftop solar. jen: considering all these changes are happening, we are also hearing from as calm -- s com. they are expecting these like us to continue. what are you telling investors? how does the business community feel reassured by this talk if this is just going to keep continuing to get worse? pravin: i don't think we are going to have a problem with that. that is what we have been fine-tuning with the new board. that is that within 12 to 18 months, we will see the end of load shedding. it will happen in two principal ways. one, by adding more megawatts to the system.

and many of the renewable projects will be coming online during that period later this year and into next year. secondly, making sure that the existing plan works efficiently. our aim is to cut all of these, what appeared to be endless processes, into much shorter processes and provide energy security to industry, but also to citizens as well and create an investment [indiscernible] which we will certainly do. jen: how do business communities take advantage of this moment at this point in time, as there is a lot of reshuffling going on? pravin: business community has been quite good in terms of its creativity. lots of multinational firms and others in the mining sector that have begun to invest in their own plants.

secondly, that also means that when they have specificity, in time, they will be able to sell that capacity as happens in many countries back into the grid and make it available to other south africans as well. it takes a lot of the renewable part, which is wind and solar. in particular, we are permitting ourselves to a transition. where we see closure or the downgrading of core power prints -- plants, particularly in the east, we will see the renewable industry both in the sense of providing power but also on the investor side as well. jen: what happens? you said these outages are likely to end in 12 to 18 months. what happens if it doesn't? what reassurances are you giving

to investors or local south africans? if in fact, this does go on until 2025. pravin: i think that is exactly what the president is talking about. to provide focus in that area where other areas will continue. and, that is a clear plan. i must say that there is a lot of work going on with the private sector, with the labor unions, with communities, both the expertise and support from these very important sectors for the direction we want to go in. if we get the necessary support, we will certainly deliver on the kind of promise that we are making. jen: we will have to have you

back to check on that. thank you so much for joining us. dani: and tested conversation, an important and timely one. coming up, we will speak to brookfield asset management about their energy transition fund and the record private fund raise coming in for that as they support the transition to next zero, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number.

dani: brookfield asset management global transition fund raised a record $15 billion last year, making it the world's largest private fund dedicated to the net zero transition. joining us now is natalie adomait.

great to have you on the program this morning. a record fund, the biggest of its kind. where is that demand coming from, considering everywhere else in private capital is struggling right now? natalie: we did have a record fund raise, we raised $15 billion. we are thrilled by the demand we have seen. a lot of that comes from an increasing demand for transition products. a lot of our institutional lps have signed on to glasgow financial alliance for no zero, that is led by mark carney. and really what they have done is committed to aligning their capital holes to net zero. so we have seen increasing demand for transition product for group yield. we have been a great recipient for all of that demand, because we have been in the renewable energy business for years, moving into decarbonization for the last five. it was a natural next step for us. manus: good morning.

i am in the land of renewables and in the land of oil and gas, i live somewhere in between the two. how much myth money went -- middle east money went into this fund? i know you have a close relationship with a lot of the institutions here. natalie:'s. it has been very similar to a lot of the other opportunistic funds that we have raised in the past. we have a mix of global investors across asia pac, middle east, and north america as well as europe. north america traditionally has been our largest region from a fundraising perspective. we have had a great mix from institutional investors as well as increasing private wealth and family office. across the board, a lot of interest. dani: i knows a lot of the things that you do our long-term power contracts.

this world has seen so much volatility in energy prices, corporate margins are getting squeezed. how much have you seen corporate behavior change in trying to head some of the energy exposure? natalie: great question, it has been a huge trend for us. a lot of our renewable energy in the past has been contracted under long-term contracts with governments or utilities. we have seen increasing demand from our corporate ppa segment of our business. you have built up this capability within our company about three years ago. now we are signing at least a ppa per month with a new corporate. demand for that has actually increased. we are seeing more demand from corporations then we are supply of renewables coming online. it is exactly coming back to not only the targets for decarbonization, but the increased focus on managing the volatility. when you have a long-term fixed

price ppa, you are able to take both of those boxes. across the board, across sectors, something we are absolutely seeing. manus: just give us a flavor of how rich in value you think renewables are. do you think that market has been squeezed? do you look towards traditional oil and gas which are divesting of traditional assets as optionality and opportunity? natalie: we continue to see a lot of opportunities in renewables, especially when you think about energy security raising onto the agenda as a primary focus, particularly here in europe. but we are seeing this across the board. the governments want to increase the share of renewables, because it helps them work towards domestic electricity sources that allows them to maintain that energy security. we have continued to see lots of opportunities to invest in renewable energy, but we are seeing increased opportunities in other transition asset

classes as well. in our fund to date, we have committed $2 billion into the nuclear sector, another 2 billion plus into the carbon capture space, a further one billion into biofuels and recycling and circular economy solutions. dani: do you have any projects in south africa? or are you looking at any projects in south africa? it is notoriously a country that uses a lot of coal, and a lot of traditional fuel sources. natalie: we currently in south africa, a lot of where we tend to invest from a renewables and the transition side in regions where we have existing on the ground operational presence. for us, north america, latin america, europe, and apac. to that theme of some of the challenges they are facing, one of the big themes of our fund is what we referred to as business transformation. we want to go through -- to

where the heavy missions are, and actually help them to invest in those problems. dani: i'm they called for help? -- have they called for help? natalie: they have not called us. we have a one transition in november with origin energy, one that we are doing due diligence on right now. the thesis there is really to invest in the utility, put it under private ownership where we can help make sure the capital and shareholder support their is to actually shutdown or transition the coal assets and really push an increase in renewable power. all with the goal of keeping energy security front of mind so that our customers continue to have that consistent source of power, just a lower carbon intensity. manus: very briefly, we will host c.o.p. here.

you talk about financing, what is the one thing if i said to you, for your industry, what is the one thing that this c.o.p. has got to deliver to drive the closure of the financing gap? natalie: think we are hopeful is announcements of real projects hitting the ground. we are working on a number of projects in our pipeline right now on the hydrogen side, as well as the carbon capture. one thing we are expecting to see coming out of cop is more focused on increasing that demand side for the hydrogen piece. that will be great for our fund, it will help bring a lot those projects online dani: i'm afraid that is all we have time for. thank you so much for getting up early with us. manus: coming up, we will talk more about the energy sector, this time on hydrocarbons.

russia supply, china's reopening, and rita is in the building. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: there are some options out there. brent will raise to $100 per barrel by late may. this is far earlier than some had expected when they are seeing the market rallying. amrita sen, director of research at energy aspects. how are you doing? amrita: i am not in vienna. such good weather. manus: we did it for you. i know you are doing a grand tour. i know you have just come back, the saudi's are raising their prices to asia and tightening.

they are raising their prices to the rest of europe. what does that signal? robust and building demand? amrita: i would say, the first take is, you have seen that refining margins have been very strong, clearly a sign that product markets are tight. the saudi official prices are reflecting back the fact that whatever prices tend to be stronger, they can rise. it is also a very clear sign that opec-plus as a group want to maintain the cuts they put in place from october and that they will make sure that inventories don't build very much in q1. it is always a time that they build. manus: the counter argument to that, no rolling back on the cuts, is that china demand will ask lode, jet fuel demand will ratchet higher. everybody is upscaling their view on china demand. is that not enough in itself to roll back the cuts? amrita: on our balances, we do

have the cuts rolling back in the second half of the year, precisely for what you are saying. having spoken to quite a few officials, i will say that opec-plus, the motto is to stay put. no changes when it comes to opec-plus policy. regardless of what the volatile in prices. we have seen this too many times last year, volatility and demand and prices. we really believe that opec-plus will just hold production flat for the full year. dani: great to speak with you this morning. prices have fallen for oil about 5% so far to start the year. is the market getting something wrong? amrita: a problem for the market is that it is quite bifurcated. so much focus on potential hard landing in the u.s., i personally think the oil market

is actually reflecting the economic conditions of the west. i was in india earlier in january, and have been in the middle east for over a week. when you come to the east, people are like, what are you talking about? china reopening, it is booming. unfortunately, i think because there are more western traders than in the east, the market is absolutely reflecting the western view of the economy rather than the global view. manus: issue, we have yet to fully understand the indication of russian sanctions and really understand the price cap. we know the flows are coming and shipped back up. novak has made it very clear, they are prepared to shut in and close off. what is the risk that russia really does take barrels off the market? what is the risk in reality? amrita: i think those numbers seen -- seem fair. i do think they will be able to place more products than we were

initially expecting. they will not be able to place all the products. five to 700,000 production off. manus: that take us to a hundred bucks? amrita: let's assume that russia doesn't lose any production. one million bowers china, one million barrels less. i think the market is to focus on russia, the other two alone can take us. manus: can you confirm i hundred bucks? [laughter] dani: that is literally what i was going to ask you. what about your look forward. does it stay there? amrita: back in 2018 and 2019, when we were doing our price focus, we had a $100 call and we just put out something on our new investment, continues to go

towards green energy. more than 60% of the 144 products will be gas buyers not oil buyers. manus: short, sweet, sustained, thank you. time for the beach. don't tell anybody at home. you the beach. director of research at energy aspects. we didn't break anything, but the bond, they tried to break something in the short end of the curve. dani: maybe they are back from la la land. maybe they are still there, enjoy your weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe."