>> welcome, i am john hyland with the first word news. the turkish present is mounting recent criticism following the earthquake. the government delayed sending -- nearly 22,000 people are confirmed dead in turkey and syria, tens of thousands are missing. the survivors were pulled from herbal today in turkey after being trapped or more than 100 hours. russia retaliating against the west. moscow plans to cut orange -- large oil production in response to price caps imposed by western nations equivalent to about 5% in january's output. the news sent crude oil prices higher. health care providers across the country bracing for massive disruptions as they wait a

federal judge's decision on abortion pills. the judge appointed by former president trump will rule on whether to halt national access to an abortion pill approved decades ago by the food and drug and minister asian advocates say a ban could cause huge ripple effects and force women seeking to end a pregnancy alternative -- how pence's lawyers acknowledged quote a small number of documents marked as classified were found at his indiana home. the justice department has appointed a special counsel to investigate had documents with classification markings ended up in private residences of president biden and or president trump. this sunday's super bowl is likely to be one for the record books. that is before the game is even play. according to the american gaming association, americans are expected to bet a record $16 billion on super bowl both legally and otherwise. global news powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i am john hyland, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome to bloomberg markets. kriti: let's dive into the price action. we have a selloff on our hands. we were expecting perhaps a little relief, but we started off with a little early. s&p 500 flat on the day, some of those losses we have seen for most of the session have impaired accurate s&p 500 training about 48.88. what direction doesn't go and do we retest october lows or are we in it for as high as 5000 four some analysts opinions? we dive into that the rest of the show. bond market selling off across the curve. 3.72 on the 10-year yield. seven basis moves higher. the cpi report on tuesday. as we see yields higher, the

dollar follows but marginally. the greenback higher by .1%. we cannot forget crude, russia is a big story. a potential output cut from the country, 500 thousand barrels potentially coming off the market creating a little lift in brent crude trading with a 86 handle. jon: helpful context. one of the reasons why we have seen energy stocks cashed in a bit on this friday within the dow. names like chevron that happen standouts. i think at the end of the day, a lotta people are continuing to look at the comments during earnings, outlooks for various companies that continue to report including lift. what a jaw-dropping decline for that stock, down 36% near the bottom of nasdaq performance today on the concerns of the prophet picture. cloud fair by comparison with an encouraging enough outlook that those shares are up 1% right now and splitting the difference, you've got new will brands, the home of rubbermaid, sharpie,

coal mines, a lot of consumer touch points. it does seem there are challenges with respect to the road ahead there. a bit of cautious trading in brand shares. kriti: earnings story still combating the macro story, which is where we are going next. eta shows the u.s. consumer sentiment climbed to a more than one year high in january. take a listen. >> consumers feel better about their current situations. i think as a continuation of the easing of inflation and some of the news in the economy that is making them feel better about the current situation. jon: let's keep the ego conversation going. bloomberg's global economics policy correspondent mike mckee. you've got a u.s. consumer that is attempting to navigate through and we just had a canadian jobs report today. very similar to last friday. locke buster number, which it does seem like complicates the road for central blinkers.

michael: let's take the u.s. consumer numbers first and say it is good news people are feeling better about the economy. bad news is, they are beginning to wonder about inflation. the one year inflation expect haitians index went up to 4.2% from 4%, so people are beginning to see a reaction to some gasoline prices going back up again a little in the month of january. overall, the idea that the jobs report was good is probably something it did contribute to that rise in overall sentiment. in canada, you guys got to be delirious. [laughter] jon: [laughter] michael: 150 thousand jobs created. the problem is not with a number of jobs created, the number is on base street. the economists on basic street got this so wrong again, they were off by a factor of 10 after being off by a factor of 21 in the month of december and by 11

in october. they cannot seem to get the forecast right for canadian jobs. i guess if you're going to get it wrong, it is better to get it wrong on the high side especially if you have what we saw today, average hourly earnings rising on a year-over-year basis, less than they did in december. just 5.2% -- 4.5% from 4.7%. kriti: we have to go from the u.s. and canada the halfway around the world and talk about the bank of japan. overnight coming out with a surprising succession decision when it comes to the new boj governor. give us more insight. michael: he is leaving after 10 years as governor of the bank of japan. his last day is march 20. there had been a thought that he would be replaced by ionic --the chief deputy. it turns out according to reporting, he didn't want the job.

the prime minister is turning to ueda, a university professor, but a former member of the bank of japan and is seen as something of a citrus. what the markets are wondering about is what he is going to do about yield curve control. a lot of talk about new governor coming in and maybe getting rid of it. what we are seeing is a kink in the japanese yield curve. the 10 year note yield has been held down. some people are thinking it is about time for that to go away. he has suggested a review ahead, but says it is not time yet. the question is after he takes over, what is he going to do? kriti: bloomberg's mike mckee walking us through what i think is a very important decision. i have been earning out about this all morning. matt miller is like, it is in japan, nobody cares. i think somebody does care, our next guest is taking the economic data into consideration. are we starting to see a weakening of bullish sentiment?

who better to answer that question then vincent duel art, director of global macro strategy at stone next. let's connect the dots, on one hand we are looking at an extremely strong labor market in the u.s. we have in canada -- i have to add, a hawkish but slowing down boc and federal reserve. i understand you have a bank of japan that is doing a lot of different things. how much do we factor in what is going on in asia to the u.s. story? >> i think at some point, the pig has to go -- the bank has to go. no bank can be sustained forever. the question is not if, but when. and when that does happen, what you will see in the bank of japan. we have had recession in japan for decades japanese savings have been pushed abroad. i would argue in a way it is

somewhat counterproductive. a lot of the money went to startups. it is probably a good thing for the economy i would argue japanese savings keep their money at home. of course, impact for the global economy would be -- because that would mean a source of cheap capital is suddenly being drawn out. that would be bullish for the yen, the dollar, bearish for global market currencies and one of the main reasons why we are seeing the spike in yields is the market is starting to sniff out the beetle in japan. jon: at the end of the day, tying together so many of the central bank decisions. vincent, we have got the inflation story. i know you have been thinking about that question of if we in canada have seen a pause on rates, we will see what happens, maybe for now the fed might be getting closer to the end for now on the rate hiking cycle, but what happens if inflation

comes back? you are not just looking at 2023, you are thinking about 2024 as well. vincent: correct. i think -- inflation and stuff for close to three years, sometimes it is important for people. i am in agreement, i expect the numbers to be the upside or downside surprise. we are seeing almost arithmetic inflation because of used car, shelter, basic commodity sectors. you will see inflation fall. what i like to say -- the cpi is falling, inflation is not. i think the biggest question is not so much whether we print that 65 tomorrow, but how do we fall and whether we are able to stay down there. my base case is, inflation will fall until let's say q3 of this year, but will not fall to 2%. maybe some more like 3.5%. then, it could come back. then you will see it is coming

back out of nowhere. like in 1997, the fed inflation was under control, then it started creeping higher and higher. that is a risk i think is not priced in if you look at the swap curve, the breakevens or -- it is getting better in terms of value rising, but nowhere near where they need to be in my opinion. kriti: the inflation data coming on tuesday, but you have to factor in something like the housing market and the labor market separately. i want to talk about housing. how big of a deal is the fact the housing market has not fully cracked when it comes to the disinflation story we are baking into markets right now? vincent: it is an excellent point. to me, it speaks to the resilience of the economy and the fact that rate hikes are not as devastating as they were -- to be. if you told me a year ago we would have almost a 5% -- rate

or getting there and we would still be creating 500,000 jobs a month, a ready set market is surprisingly ok. i pick up a mortgage application, we have this big drop in average mortgage rates and we are not seeing a 2008 like scenario in large part because the household balance sheets are strong. people have a lot of equity in their homes. we can take this pain. i would argue that is a good thing, that is what the fed wants. they want to slowly disinflation this massive bubble it created in the past two years. now it is this goldilocks moment where inflation is falling. i would argue that is not necessarily of the fed's doing, but it looks good. [laughter] the market is slowing, but not crashing. kriti: certainty something we

will be -- certainly something we will be keeping our eyes on. coming up, we have a conversation with expedia ceo peter kern next after they report earnings this morning. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time your sales reached 100k was also the first time you hit this note... ( screams in joy) save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first.

kriti: this is bloomberg markets. severe fall in winter weather seemed to offset strong demand for travel on booking platforms like expedia as refunded in its fourth-quarter results that did not miss analysts excitations on wall street. shares are seeing their biggest drop all the way back to may. despite this, the company very confident going forward saying demand has been markedly stronger since the start of the year. who better to weigh in then the ceo and vice chairman of expedia, peter kern. i want to start with the headcount story. we have seen a lot of layoffs in the tech sector. something the stock market has been rewarding those shares for when we talk about layoffs. walk us through your headcount lands. do you see layoffs in the future? peter: we are not going in that direction. thanks for having me. we did a lot during covid and pre-covid to right size our business. so we were way ahead of the

curve. while a lot of tech nominees were adding quite aggressively during covid, we were stable to down. we are in a great place now. we have added a lot of technology capabilities and a lot more people in engineering and product then we used to have. in general, we are in a good spot and we are were continuing to invest in the product and consumer so we do not expect to see major downsizing. jon: i heard you, everybody's talking about ai, you talking about personalization on your conference call. if the story ahead is one where there could continue to be growth, where are you expecting to see that growth in 2023? there has been a lot a focus on what happens in asia, particularly with china's reopening. peter: it is a couple parts. there is definitely geographical opportunities in asia. to a large extent, we have been rebuilding our whole technical platform the last couple of years and rolling out our new marketing strategy in the u.s., which is focused on long-term

customer retention, high-value consumers and working on retention, great product, sticky product, great loyalty programs. that has been working in the u.s., we are starting to roll that out two more places and more brands as those capabilities expand and we get our technological transformation finished. that is going to drive our growth. geographically, we expect west to be strong, asia to come back. so far, notwithstanding your commentary about the economies of the world, everything has been strong in travel. kriti: it feels like that has almost showed up in a way when it comes to the fx pressures. the fourth quarter looks like your revenue took 400 basis point hit due to a strong dollar. you are speaking of the geopolitical pressures, is that something you see continuing in the year ahead? peter: i do not think so. it does impact comps and comparing historical results to current results. i think in general, it has not been an issue.

pricing has been high. we have seen inflation in travel, considerable inflation the last several years. those prices seem to be holding well, whether airfares, hotel, etc. the consumers seem more than willing to pay for it. demand remains strong, i do not see much change coming from that. you hey -- you may have vectors impacted were certain travelers might not want to come to the u.s. or whatever, but we are strong in the u.s. and strong dollar helps us international travel. jon: i want to go a layer deeper on the travel demand. you have high profile properties like orbitz, hotels.com. people are also trying to get a sense on rentals, rental sharing through the likes of vrbo, which is a property of yours. people track what is happening with the likes of airbnb. i know you do not break up those numbers, but what would you say about the performance about a property like vrbo?

peter: vrbo has been strong throughout covid and continues to be stronger then pre-covid. other categories have caught up. home rental was popular ring covid because of the safety issues. we have always expected and are seeing big cities, hotels, resorts, etc. are catching up. the big lifts we saw in vacation rentals still exists, but the other areas of the business are catching up to it and we are seeing broadly travel normalized in terms of demand and how it is spread between hotel, vr and other categories. kriti: speaking of that demand growth, it feels like there is a massive surge specifically in january whereas december you were dealing with things like hurricane ian, other december travel chaos. what about january -- where did that january growth specifically come from? peter: it is brought by -- broad-based. asia is strong but relatively small for us, so it is not

moving the whole number that much. in general, demand has been strong. we have been building to this point where we have been stacking up new members, new app users and focused on customer retention and quality of shopping experience, service experience. we are now at a much different place than a couple of years rebuilding then a couple of our underlying technical capability and innovating more around the shopping experience than we think any other player in the business. i think this is a culmination of a lot of work. we still have some big transformational things to do. we are launching our royalty -- loyalty program later this year. this is the culmination of a lot of work married to quite a bust demand in the market. jon: good to get your perspective, thanks for the time today. we appreciate it, peter kern, ceo of expedia. when we come back, crypto firms haven't put on notice as crack and settles with the securities

exchange commission. we hear from the chair of the sec, gary gensler. this is bloomberg. ♪

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a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. jon: this is bloomberg markets. time for today's what it's worth. our number today is $30 million, how much he crypto platform crack and will pay as part of a settlement with the sec tied to its taking program. the regulators sending a message about crypto interest and lending programs. gary gensler spoke with bloomberg today. gary: these crypto exchanges, crypto lending platforms, crypto staking service, they need to come into compliance and they are generally noncompliant right now. investing public is not only at

risk by the speculative nature of crypto, but they are at risk of ending up in line at a bankruptcy court because a lot of these platforms are doing things they are not disclosing. kriti: that is gary gensler speaking earlier on bloomberg television. the crypto story is fascinating. 2023 was supposed to be the year we get the digital dollar, potentially the digital euro and the digital yuan. i wonder at what point that gets factored into the crypto market at the same time folks like gary gensler are making a tougher call on crypto. jon: it is a important question. i think the reality is, gansler has been pointing towards this for some. -- for some period of time. the new york stock exchange is not allowed to run hedge funds and trailing exchange through them, what should be the rules of the road surrounding crypto platforms like cracking? kriti: something we will keep an eye on. i've got my eye on these markets. s&p 500 flat on the day,

shrugging its shoulders. nasdaq underperforming down .9%. more markets ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh three nights, esg... the broker will take your bonds. -diversification, futures, options. fiduciary. leverage. [whispering] -frothy markets. psst. virtual real estate is a lock. ♪ cold hard cash ♪ j.p. morgan wealth management knows the world is full of financial noise. i'm looking at your asset mix and plan. you are right on track. great, thanks. our easy-to-use app and local advisors are here to help you figure out what's right for your investments. j.p. morgan wealth management.

jon: equities continue to soften. treasury rally accelerating. turbulence across the market assets class is continuing on this friday afternoon. romaine bostick, look who showed up again. scarlet fu, only two days a week now. >> i decided to grace or presence on a friday. romaine: to talk about how turbulent this week has been, the set up for next week, the big cpi report. interesting to see the price action. scarlet: there is going to be changes in