>> i felt personally attacked. >> i think that was the funniest line out of all of them. >> from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. what have we got set up for you? cpi for tomorrow, and tom, onto retail sales. >> you click on the consumer here. i think there is a whole thing going on, a whole debate over the weekend that inflation will be higher. that was the theme of the week. inflation will be higher and you absolutely nailed it when you said we are behind on the consumer, and that is how we get the retail sales. >> did you see that come through this morning? the new scenario plays up her growth takes off after an aborted landing and our base case is a non-hard landing. tom: no landing.

there is a huge battle. i feel like i'm in the super bowl here. jonathan: patrick mahomes is injured and then he is not. lisa: i can tell what you did last night. tom: there's a struggle going on and it was in every note. lisa: no longer is the top concern a global recession. do we start to see more headline risk with the onset of ufos? jonathan: wasn't that bizarre over the weekend? lisa: so bizarre.

it is balloongate. when we take it very seriously because everyone is finding balloons and shooting them down and it feels like we are being invaded. jonathan: it is bizarre. tom: when does all the silliness over to people actually doing business with materials from china or selling to china? that is the jump from bipartisan angst over china. jonathan: we are having a conversation about export restrictions. lisa: then it raises the question of tiktok with the hearing next month. do have acceleration in the plans to ban tiktok and what is the elevation of that given how popular it is with the young

people who vote. jonathan: equity futures positive .1% off of the back of the biggest loss on the s&p 500 so far. in the first week of loss on the nasdaq. yields basically unchanged on a 10 year. after a monster week of gains on crude, we pull back. lisa: big event is cpi tuesday and valentine's day where we find out who sent tom what. michelle bowman is speaking at a conference in orlando, florida. does she give some indication of what don't fight the fed means? the data has been coming in hotter than expected and you haven't seen that reflected in the one year yield and the expected terminal feds fund rate which is 5.2%.

ecb governing councilmember is speaking at an event. what do you think will hereafter we got basically the opposite, upgrade to growth and downgrade to inflation. i thought this was interesting from europe with all of the gloom and doom. just to build on this discussion and whether we are seeing acceleration the aftermarket, we will get more earnings. i am curious how much we see this re-acceleration borne out by some of the projections of the very consumer facing companies, particularly real estate given consumer incentive is coming back. jonathan: joining us is the

chief investment strategist at oppenheimer. wonderful to catch up with you. i know you are more constructive than most and so far so good. morgan stanley said prices are about as disconnected from reality as it has been during this bear market. what would you say back? >> i would say, darth vader, i disagree with you. we are seeing things actually improving around the world, it was mentioned in terms of europe and the way things are looking better than expected earnings so far. the earnings were off on the s&p 500 2.5% and there were expectations of 3% or worse. we have the federal reserve doing the job to end the period

of a freak money and put us on a more realistic course and that should be good. tom: you are very articulate about extended a bullish call to where we got the stove us -- the market. i thought of you when i saw this observation. in the old days we used to hold stocks for years and now we hold them for months we have gone from a five-year hold to an average 10 year. how do you do optimism with people on a 10 month basis are close to daytrading john: -- close to daytrading? tom: that is a great question. have two different types of investors. if short-term crowd in the

intermediate to long-term crowd. short-term evidence of fear and greed and longer-term it is need . and the realization that investing in innovations and corporations that know how to manage products and services is the way to go for portion of one's portfolio and whether it is the kid education -- kit about-face education or retirement, serious goals -- kid's education or retirement, serious goals. lisa: if you get this reacceleration, it seems there is a preeminent concern among investors right now. john: at least among the trading crowd. the traders are closer to

commodity traders in the past in the way that they position themselves on a date today basis -- day-to-day basis. they are showing remarkable ability to if not pivot or pause , and i don't think that is needed, but to maintain a view they will be vigilant against inflation and they will take action against this. i don't think any central banker wants to be remembered as arthur burns is remembered. lisa: what is your target for a year and given that it is a highly uncertain time and yet there does seem to be growing sentiment of no landing? john:john: i've never known a period in almost 40 years of the market where there has been any certainty in the market. uncertainty is part of life and moves to the market.

we would have to say, our target is 4400 for the s&p this year. based on what we have seen coming out of the gate at the beginning of the year, a chance we may see that exceeded but right now we will stick with the 4400. our main concerns are on a day-to-day basis, the ability of the market to oversell as well as to overbuy in the near term. you have to curb enthusiasm somewhat and keep a good business mind in terms of what you are investing in and courage of your convictions. jonathan: great to catch up. john stoltzfus of oppenheimer. cpi data tomorrow and then on to retail sales. over the weekend, hard data is strong. dropping the position on

treasury, dropping short on the u.s. dollar. the idea being can't ignore the hard data. we need clarity on things like the terminal rate and mutual rate and has reintroduced this again. tom: we went should -- we mentioned this on friday, do they make adjustments and tweaks out front of cpi and retail or with a vengeance until we get a reset off that data next week? morgan stanley clear decided to get out front. jonathan: cpi will get the attention but retail sales will be interesting because the take away is that this economy is far more resilient and we thought it was 12 months ago and will we see any cracks in things with the consumer retail sales? lisa: the mastercard consumer spending survey and also a bank of america survey, the result is they are all spending tons and

re-accelerating purchasing and have purchasing power and are willing to use it and it does not speak to the slowdown or lack in momentum. jonathan: no landing is something i've heard so much about. loosely defined and we are trying to define that more clearly in the coming weeks. tom: there are three schools, rates are going higher, is over, disinflation, and back to this no landing, strange economy take your pick. jonathan: price action has been more surprising that economic data so far. tom: mine was the ad agency of where they move back in.

jonathan: unchanged on the s&p 500. more to come out just around the corner. leigh-ann: an international monetary fund mission starting talks with ukrainian officials as the imf weighs a multiword -- multi-a package to provide a catalyst for more financial aid. russia launched its biggest barrage of ukraine so far this year as president volodymyr zelenskyy is seeking more weapons to fend off the invasion. bloomberg has learned the european union is getting ready to slap russia with another round of sanctions. the eu will propose export measures aimed at heavy vehicles, including trucks and machines used in forestry and agricultural sectors as well as possible import restrictions on

russian rubber and asphalt. it would be the 10th set of sanctions against russia. free flying objects have been down in north america with another reportedly spotted over chinese --. they shot down objects over alaska and canada on friday and saturday, and another over michigan yesterday, less than 10 days after a balloon was downed off the coast the carolinas. according to a chinese news outlet, beijing is preparing to down an unidentified object flying near the port city of qingdao, as it is home to a major naval facility. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: cpi tomorrow and retail sales wednesday. equity futures on the s&p up put 1%. good morning to you, particularly stateside. i know you may have a headache or hangover. a severe one for abramowitz. most of us watch the halftime show and went to sleep. tom: i got after thigh giving me

the rihanna play-by-play. you are actually trying to watch a football game. at lisa abramowicz's house they put the game on mute until the commercials come on. jonathan: the week ahead is a big one. it is a direct quote, today is a barren wasteland of nothingness, so quiet that even the former secretary treasuries should find it difficult to offer commentary. it is idle speculation taking over markets. tom: it is going to be interesting. to this and all of the themes, i am not sure where professor summers sits, clearly he was way out front in dismissing transitory and they were looking for some form of stagflation.

right now we have three views and that is the way it is. lisa: today's counter is a barren wasteland of nothingness. enjoy. we should have that. jonathan: the economy is revealing itself as difficult slowdown. you see this again and again and again. barclays thinks the terminal rates goes out to 550 said incoming data said -- suggest the fed is gaining less traction against inflation then expected. the couple fridays ago, payrolls blowing it out of the water. tom: people are still writing about that come which i have never seen. jonathan: still going this morning. tom: to year yield migrates. 4.54% this morning.

and now the events of the weekend. he was from new hampshire. and if you are looking over the weekend, he had to be careful of the gunfire as you were duckhunting. when you help me? what is above lake huron? greg: not much. the vast land where there are military installations and places where espionage probably is fruitful for whoever is doing it. that brings us to this crisis. and in washington nobody knows what these objects are or what the goal is. the lack of any certainty at all is unnerving. tom: and the humor of the barren wasteland or whatever is out there, what i would say of our knowledge of washington is there

is an entire intelligence community you bounce off and are familiar with does our intelligence community no more or do they know a lot more than we think? tom: i think they know a lot more. i saw a great column over the weekend about a new cold war and about this area in space that is contested between the u.s. and china. i think this will further weaken our trade relations with beijing. we have months if not quarters to go before there is any improvement at all in trade. lisa: what does it look like for this tit-for-tat with this balloongate orbit everyone a call it? lisa: the u.s. put out now businesses that are for been to

doing business with china. there might even be new sanctions. lisa: fee think tiktok could get banned? greg: yes, one of the players to watch is chuck schumer and he has always been quite hawkish about china and he said on a talk show yesterday that he is considering it and congress is giving us a very careful look. tom: help us with the republican derby starting this weekend with the gentlelady from the carolinas. it begins, doesn't it? greg: here we go, just one year and eight months before the next election. nikki haley, who is quite good. she is smart and funny and charming and she is young. this is really important. she is 51. desantis is 44 and this begins a new era of anger candidates

running for office. jonathan: where does that leave the president? greg: they couldn't be much older but i do believe this will be a new theme of younger a candidates with a new agenda and i think she will have lots of company in the next two or three months. mike pence and mike pompeo and maybe the governor of new hampshire and maryland. the field will get bigger over the next few weeks. jonathan: let's focus on the current president of the united states. when are you expecting some kind of official announcement? greg: i think it comes later rather than sooner, april, may, june. i do not think he is in any rush. it gives him talking points, but it is at least weeks or months away. jonathan: is at the counter or what it is dependent on? greg: counter is parted but i

don't think he wants to have all the scrutiny right now. obviously he is 80 years old but i think he did a great job at the state of the union address but i think he wants to keep the suspense building. greg valliere, the suspense is building and will keep building. tom: i think the dishware -- i think the british way is the best. jonathan: on the republican side, it field is getting big. the set: at what point does this -- lisa: at what point do they coalesce behind a younger, charismatic candidate that does gain groundswell even with more moderate republicans. tom: there was a reagan method

and the idea is you run to the polarity and move to the middle as you migrate toward the first tuesday of november. that has evaporated and is gone and i do not know where ms. haley fits in you are in the middle and you have to go out and when the primary. i don't know which kansas city won. did you know there were two? is it missouri where the super bowl is? there is kansas city, kansas. jonathan: i like how you are trained help me with my geography but are revealing your lack of knowledge. tom: i think it is kansas city, missouri won the super bowl. did i nail it?

jonathan: i have no idea. have you ever been? tom: a couple of times. i have been to lawrenceville. lisa: do you prefer missouri barbecue or soft barbecue? tom: don't know the difference, although i know we had it last night. lisa: i had atomic wings and it look like just a delivery with the inside and outside packed with people. jonathan: that i believe. ben affleck was sewing -- selling doughnuts. ♪

jonathan: equities trying to bounce. futures up by .1%. on the nasdaq, up .4%. on the s&p, down 1% last year. we have had a massive year to date, especially for the nasdaq. your two-year very close to the highs of the year, 4.54. tom: to meet, all the data on the screen, 70 or 80 data

points, but the two year yield. jonathan: i mentioned this earlier, morgan stanley dropping the overweight on treasuries and dollar short as well. the euro-dollar looks like this. we are at 1.06, unchanged on euro-dollar. the pushback was clear here ultimately the strong data has reintroduced the question, where is the terminal rate and neutral and is it higher than where we are? lisa: will they be some policy error or tighten into re-session and not whether there will be a global recession caused by underlying weakness in that raises a question, what does it mean to not fight the fed if the fed is looking at the data and fighting inflation? jonathan: this week it is not just about inflation but retail sales as well. tom: kate get suspected very delayed recession call.

we decided after the super bowl we needed to speak to somebody who was awake. he is a new york giants fan and it is well understood they did not care about the super bowl. thank you for joining us. i want to talk about the two year yield. you have jerome schneider at pimco, what do you have on the two year yield? what are the set of outcomes? >> a lot of it is what you think the neutral rate is. if you think the neutral rate is where it was in the 2010s, between zero and a half percent above inflation, then perhaps the two year yield should be lower. if you think that is gravitating upwards related to costs and resilience efforts on defense and energy and scarcity of labor

in the next cycle, when the fed funds rate moves slower, maybe it will go down to two and set up zero. you don't want to catch a falling knife but you want to catch it while you can and have faith in the fed. don't fight the fed a year ago had a negative connotation. jonathan: are you saying this is a once in a two-year, five-year, tenure opportunity to pick up 4.5% at the front and? -- front end? tony: the yield today is in the mid-force, 4.5% in the bloomberg aggregate is a compilation of

mortgages and corporate etc.. that is good relative to history. it looks good relative to inflation. if you think the inflation rate is headed downward and you have faith in the fed, and i would, then it is quite attractive purchase the future which is somewhere in the low twos. the real interest rate, perspective if you believe the inflation rate is having downward looks very attractive. and it looks good versus normal volatility for the bond market. 2022 was probably the anomaly. a reversal of $19 trillion of negative yields and who will buy german bund for generation investors who remember what happened? this central bank is headed to central bank heaven and following lessons of history, which as chairman powell said, number one, take response

ability, pay attention to how people feel about inflation expectations, and quoting paul volcker, keep at it. that is a quotation from the book by paul volcker. this tough love is what will bring down inflation rate making yields look quite attractive relative to that. lisa: central bank heaven. i love that. tony: only hawks go to central bank heaven. lisa: what happens if this federal reserve is facing a keep at it volker moment? how high could rates go and why is it still value going into treasury at 4.5%? tony: this notion of owning securities today, how high the fed needs to go, take a simple calculation of how the story looks.

take the waste figure, subtract productivity and you get the future inflation rate which lately figures in the mid-force. it looks like the inflation rate is headed to three. if you believe recent data, it looks like wages are slowing and it seems if it is headed to 4% wage growth minus productivity and you get a future of 2.5% inflation rate. that along with the bond market confidence in tips and securities, all seem to suggest clearly the inflation rate will head downward. the fed needn't go to high and part of the confidence it is instilling in the public. lisa: so you are assaying load the boat and so many words on the short end, but what about the long and -- long end? tony: the pimco view is the 10

year yield will be in a range of 3.2 5% 4.25% -- 3.25% to 4.2 5%. we would expect interest rate volatility to plunge because the forecast on the federal funds rate is likely to go a lot lower. the miss want to be a four-point miss on the funds rate. second part is how much dry powder do you want in terms of tracking and cash? third one is based on diversification. tom: in the vicinity of page 1017, you talk about what corporations do. what will be the behavior of corporate issuance of this pandemic? tony: it should go lower, of course, and it is going lower

and the lower you go in a capital structure and in terms of credit rating, the less likely it will be because the math doesn't work. that is why when interest rates move up, is between saving or investing. tom: does that increase the gyrations and jumble of the market? tony: technical forces in the bond market are something to be careful about, especially in corporate. tom: we haven't been for 17 years. tony: the amount of corporate bonds held by primary dealers is only about $5 billion. this is a market that has doubled in size, it could mean

the implied default rate could jump massively even the risk of default doesn't. this -- lisa: this is something some are concerned about what others are worried about. there is a buyer for anything and it is a matter of price. tony: you buyers eventually. but the implied default rate on a triple be went to 10% to 20%. it historically has a .1% default rate, meaning 99.9% chance of putting your money back but bond investor said you have an 85% chance and that proved to be wrong and that was because of liquidity. it did sort itself out.

there is something to worry about him maybe not sincerely a worry but an opportunity for investment because you can have dislocations in a recession. jonathan: if we can upside surprise on cpi and retail sales, are you a buyer of backup yields and treasuries? tony: i gave a range but it makes sense because you can see even with the gain in the payrolls last month, the bond market has been steady. confidence in the outlook is quite high so you can see that the market wants to go higher in price. we probably want to consider owning securities.

jonathan: the message from him poll -- pimco is by bonds. tom: there are three basic scenarios on inflation and that is a guess of the bond market when that into the equity market. we are already getting hate mail from people on john stoltzfus. do you wait until wednesday morning at 8:32? jonathan: chris harvey at wells fargo had a bear market is over and said, when i was on the show, my comment about whether you should sell this, i kept that doesn't feel like the right question. the question that popped into my head was is this still a bear market? he doesn't think it is. he wants to make an important note, it does mean we -- doesn't

mean we are looking at a great bull market. more or less it is just the market. i don't think he thinks we're going to get a massive rally or massive selloff. lisa: it goes to diminished volatility area and going back to where we have experienced in a long time. the fact that we are saving a little powder highlights we might not get that. jonathan: isn't that 5% to 10%? rick rieder had a lot of cash at blackrock and that has been chopped away at. lisa: there still is enough cash other that people are looking at a dislocation. tom: this looks like kansas city. jonathan: what is on that? tom: british. lisa: british but also kansas

city. jonathan: i am not sure what i think of that. fitch's positive.1%. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. opec's top official urging companies to invest in oil to meet the future energy needs. the secretary-general of the organization says climate policies need to meet more balanced and fair and policymakers need to look at the big picture. goldman sachs ceo david solomon reported to have said should have acted sooner to cut jobs. he told a private meeting that layouts would have been less drastic had he reacted when signs of a slowdown again to emerge in the second quarter of last year. goldman is slashing 6.5% of the headcount, one of the largest rounds of job reductions ever.

the kansas city chiefs be the philadelphia eagles 38-35 and these super bowl. the quarterback patrick mahomes helped deliver the win with an injured angle. he threw two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and ran 26 yards before harrison butker kicked a field goal with eight seconds left, leading the chiefs to victory. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

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moment and japan is seeing aggressive inflation that would require much higher rates. it is not a world that adds up. the big change is what is happening in the rest of the world. jonathan: data picking up in the rest of the world. from new york city, good morning. equity futures positive by .1% on the as invite -- s&p 500. the two-year north of 4.50. tom: -81 basis points, fascinating to see. it is a theoretical constructions where you could get to -80 basis points and dare i say a full percentage point different between a higher two-year and lower at 10 year. we are not there yet. jonathan: you get an aggressive sell of on the long end and

renewed hopes that growth navy reintroduction of inflation risk. or you get the bowstring you get when the fed cuts interest rates aggressively. lisa: which raises the issue, is the yield curve wrong this time? is it not as much of a predictor of recession or downturn as it has in the past? do we get the fed cutting rates without a recession or the soft landing type of situation and what does that say for the indicator going forward as a predictor? jonathan: we have this conversation every time it is inverted. perhaps it is going to be different this time. lisa: no one wants to say this time is different. at the same time it feels perhaps there is a different distortion, at least that is what the market believes because the inflation debate is in the zeitgeist.

jonathan: i'm not saying it is going to be different this time. tom: coming up, i want to look through the prism of economics through the dollar market, pouring exchange -- foreign-exchange. jordan rochester joins us this morning. you wrote a short paragraph, but we are beginning to see over the weekend new discussion about what i'm going to call the shock appointment in the bank of japan of something that for the japanese is a foreign but for us is completely normal. how dare they put a real card-carrying economist and monetary theorist and with the bank of japan? that is not the way it goes. what will that mean for dollar? jodan: what it means is --

jordan: we still don't have the official confirmation so we have to wait and see. with his policy choices in the past, he did vote against raising rates many years ago. he has written more since and it was many moons ago. what it means is uncertainty. we don't know where things will go. a new governor tends to lead to changes at the bank of japan. could it be different this time? one of the comments your previous guests at about japanese inflation rising while we have disinflation elsewhere, we are talking about differences in lags. they are now hitting the peak of inflation in japan. a more interesting story for markets compared to last year. tom: listeners and viewers in

the west are like, cut to the chase, tom. what is the so what? we have japanese data coming out this evening our time, including key gdp data and the new inflation in japan. what is the so what for the west? jordan: the so what is since the 1990's, japan has not had particularly strong inflation. on the wage side, we have had a few months where we have not seen japan escaping disinflation. this is the moment where japan has so much supply chain factors and demand-side pushing inflation higher, 2% consistently for a year or two. what is more importantly is the situation with wages. with seen the likes of you know global lose 40% of their staff. but we have seen others where it

6% and others. do japanese wages have a one-off shift that leads to inflation next year not fallen to 2%? that is the scenario where the boj is more hawkish than what they currently are. that is what the markets are pricing. all sorts of scenarios building up, especially with the change of governor. lisa: the tone has changed. six months ago people were talking about this as the ultimate risks that was sent 10 year yields over 5% because it would cause complete upheaval in the structure of the global bond market and buyers and potential for japanese investors to come home. why is that scenario no longer talked about? jordan: i think it should be. in terms of a scenario, two major central banks easing at the moment, the boj and pboc. you take away the short yen, you

have a problem for liquidity. it is one of the risk factors we look at as we get into spring and summer if we are talking about reflation trade, you can see higher yields and if the bank of japan ends the control, all the funded trades that were essentially paid for by the boj are over. that can see credit conditions tightening and fixed income under pressure. i think it is still a conversation, but the first point is, will it happen and what does it mean for japanese markets and what does it mean for peripheral markets elsewhere? lisa: there are a lot of questions but i am curious on your view on the dollar amid this upheaval, given that a lot of people have gone euro and international and starley -- and suddenly started to rethink it. jordan: it is really painful. we had the broadview right and we quickly unraveled and now it

is below 1.07. december it was quite week. -- quite weak. we had courts in the u.s. cpi. and january was the warmest in europe and that leads to big changes in data. it could be the case that u.s. cpi and retail comes in hot. everything i have points to big disinflation for the u.s. on the jobs market, look at the jobs cut survey and senior loan officer survey. doug cuts are coming. the official data is late to the story. jonathan: it is adjusting how much the weather has had an effect. thank you, jordan. boj purchases of jgb's are

bigger than fed qt. just think about that. qe from the boj is bigger than fed qt and central banks are out of liquidity for financial markets. tom: decades of experience, i set in tokyo at the bank of japan and said to myself, this is really foreign and i don't understand what's going on here. every single pro from jordan rochester to say robbie feldman at morgan stanley saying never underestimate the effect of japan on u.s. finance and investment. lisa: if they do back away from quantitative easing that offsets with the u.s. is doing on the tightening side, what effect does it have on the markets? this is what jordan rochester was saying and six months ago people were talking about the potential for boj change to disrupt mobile markets in a significant way. a lot of people have pushed back and said japan never does

anything rapidly. they don't make big moves. they are gentle and managed. jonathan: sometimes they make bad moves. let's see if they make a bad move in the next a few -- next few months. lisa: it points to not just how high they are for not just japan but locally. jonathan: we have the perfect guests, the global head of rate strategy and we call her the queen of rates. she will join us. -80 basis points on the yield curve this morning. tom: will be interesting to see -81 basis points. the next three days of english football -- jonathan: champions league football? tom: you have liverpool, ac milan and arsenal. i'll have to watch it on three

different networks. jonathan: paramount. you have to get paramount for the champion rings games. tom: it is ridiculous. ♪

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>> i find it hard to imagine a world where the uss in disinflation. and japan is saying aggressive inflation. >> the u.s. probably has a better growth dynamic because of the fed being one of the earlier banks to start tightening policy. >> what we are looking at is not what we call terminal peak. >> i think we are seeing some of

these interest-rate increases. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: chris stapleton should sing the national anthem every year. that was beautiful. tom: the next music acquisition is spectacular. this kid is not only what he is and for people that's of no him, he really cares about the sound and you heard that yesterday. jonathan: if you are outside of the united states youtube it. up a 10th of 1%, sort of the cpi going against tomorrow. mention rihanna if you like. rihanna fans are disappointed because they will get the new album, that's what i'm told. lisa: i actually looked up all

of these things the first question was is she pregnant. she is. no one can really ask you that. you have to, investigate. but they did. people were hoping that she would announce it. tom: she got up on those up down things. lisa: i expected you to come in a marshmallow suit. didn't you think that hoodie, i expected it. tom: i actually enjoyed it because i'm frankly not familiar with her repertoire. at the end of it i a site, you know, when do we get back the bands? i don't want to pick the band but every year we are doing this. we had the weekend, jonathan: i thought we had dre last year. tom: let's restart the show.

jonathan: good morning good morning. tom keene, issa promotes an jonathan ferro. inflation data just around the corner. lisa: there happens to be a feeling we do get more accelerated inflation. question really remains what does that mean for the fed and do we still get a no linking type of situation if they raise rates further? jonathan: respectively, they put that on the table in the last couple of months and everyone is gravitating towards it. i'm going to work through the price action just briefly. equities elevated. coming off the back of the largest weekly loss so far. don't a little bit more on the nasdaq. tom: it was strange. it was a weekly loss and it was down.

of jonathan: we were waiting for retail sales. if you look at the bond market yields are a little bit higher. it's all about the two-year at 454 this morning. lisa: the fed speak kicks off this morning. michelle bowen speaking at a conference in florida. also the t-bill that a lot of people have been looking at if you can get 4.5-four .8% investing why not? how much are you taking off the table given the risk people see in equities? that is one of the growing questions. the reaction function from that ecb equally important potentially. we hear from governing council of the ecb. what do they say about where market pricing has been and how

much further they have to go especially after the projection for faster growth and slower inflation? aftermarket the earnings, we have not gotten very good earnings. we are talking about the soft landing. earnings have been disappointed. they missed it more frequently than not in the reaction has been it's ok. do we see that ongoing shrugging off of misses and potential gray shoots -- green shoots. how much do we get the sense that they are expecting consumers to keep spending despite some of the talk was to about some sort of downturn. jonathan: what downturn is the question being asked right now. on the resiliency of the u.s. economy. let's start with bank of america. the u.s. economy say it's

difficult to slowdown. data points for longer expection -- expansion. we think the data are too strong for the fed to look past. extrapolating the resiliency. tom: those are macro people. then there is the data geeks. moments ago a brilliant chart, five years of global flights from flight trader 24. this year isn't normal. it's a lift. getting busier, stretching out, pre-pandemic. let's get to one of our most successful guests. associated with the 10 year yield a td securities, i want to go inside the two year yield. how do you look at the two year yield, how do you establish a

collar around how it may act? >> thank you for having me on. i think it is at the end of the hiking cycle. how long is it going to be kept there and when are they going to cut? inflation is likely to come to some point. i think what is the market pricing of that endpoint? and when did they cut? it's also going to come down to inflation. the labor market is still going strong so i think the inflation print we get on eci tomorrow it remains strong. the fed is not stopping yet. they are going, i would say there's another decent chance of another 25. it's going to depend on how fast inflation comes down. when we get into the 2.5, 3%

that the fed will start to make policy a little less strict. i would say the market is pretty well priced for the endpoint of the hiking cycle. i think the pause can be a little longer. jonathan: dancing around it a little bit, let's put you on the spot. any evidence >>'s to mark i get a lot of pushback because the data is strong. i think we are in the process of blanks. the fact that the consumer still has accumulated savings, it's coming down, but it's widened the lag. i know markets priced at 10 but for the consumer to start to cut back on spending and i think they are starting to cut back but the labor market is strong and i still have accumulated savings. when the savings went out, that's when the consumer starts

to cut back. i think policy is way north of 1% is going to have an impact on the consumer. i think is going to take some time. i think the last two recessions have been socks. the market is waiting for the data to fall apart i think it's going to be a slow grind. it's like the last mile when you are running that marathon. i think we are in that moment. we are moving from hard landing, soft landing, no landing. i think interest rates, real interest rates everything we think is normal, that is restrictive. it's taking a while for that to slow the u.s. economy down. lisa: what does restrictive mean in terms of a hard landing? a recession a lot of people have written off. >> was going to be tricky is as the economy starts to slowdown can the fed respond?

we might actually get some spending cuts. what makes us more nervous about a hard landing this policies start to slow down and we wait for the fed to respond. we wait for the fed to start to cut rates and we think the inflation environment is going to prevent them from doing that. that's a finding very quickly starts to look like a hard landing. every hard landing starts to look like a soft landing in the beginning. if we are lucky and inflation to start to come done, i think the fed can respond and we can perhaps get the soft landing. it's going to depend on that. lisa: what does it mean in terms of 10 year yield if there is the first option where you end up with the hard landing does that mean 3.7% is positive? the yield curve inversion could go much deeper. >> i do think it can go deeper.

i think we are getting to that attractive level. his 375 the highest we are going to get? i think lending into duration does start to make sense. i would say pricing is pretty fair. the rate cuts look a little bit earlier but i think they will have to cut rates next year. add more as we get closer to 4%, global rates, watch global rates. i think maybe that can push the u.s. 10 year closer to four. i think you are getting to levels where it's going to book more attractive than equity and credit risks. jonathan: that was a green light from td just are buying the td. thank you. maybe we backup to four on a 10 year. tom: delay which of that is just great. it's almost like dollar cost

averaging different sets of duration along the way it's not like nuy, hold, sell. jonathan: one reporter asked the government if the objects over the weekend turned targets were sent by extraterrestrials. that was actually a question and that -- this is what we heard from a commander. it leads to a bunch of stories and speculation which we will have a look at in just a moment. tom: the truth is out there, classic x-files. maybe they should say trust no one or deceive. jonathan: we found one too. lisa: elon musk tweeted out some of my alien friends. tom: super bowl shot of mr. musk

chowing down. jonathan: i saw that. they had good seats. i'm not shocked by that. tom: should the three of us go? jonathan: i would hope one of the richest men in the world had great seats. tom: they did it. want to go next your, the three of us? jonathan: i would like to make that happen. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. three flying objects have been down over north america with another reportedly spotted over a chinese port city. fighter jets shot down objects over canada and another over michigan yesterday less than 10 days after a balloon was downed

over the coast of carolina. beijing is preparing to down an unidentified object flying near the port city. china's foreign ministries spoke person claims u.s. illegally flew over china since the beginning of 2022. international monitoring is starting talks in ukraine. a multiyear aid package to provide more financial aid. on friday russia launched its largest attack on ukraine so far this year as president zelenskyy is seeking weapons to fend off the attack. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomgerg quicktake.

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>> were going to come forward with the plan. if we are still debating that plan. we are having robust debates, that is what democracy is supposed to be about. if anything, we need to shore those programs up they are running out of money. jonathan: speaking on abc over the weekend. thanks again to both of you as always. can you get the aliens to find out if they see a hard or soft landing? [laughter] tom: wed will putscully on it

jonathan:. it just waking up, envy, that's what it really is. i wish i was just waking out. lisa: i know that's why you heckle everybody. jonathan: its jealousy, nothing else. looking at the front end, the pickup. the two year yield on the week up by more than 22 basis points and this morning we had another couple of basis points so close to 4.54. tom: really didn't move there was a shift up in the curve. we haven't mentioned it this running brent crude $86 a barrel. it's nudging up. jonathan: it's up 8% over the

five days last week. really decent run close to 80 this morning. tom: i would notice the stresses of 21 point which is the friday stress. jonathan: february 14, we will have something to say about that. lisa: valentine's day? just kidding. maybe the po j nomination. tom: a lot of things, at 11:00 a.m. we are leaving. jonathan: we get put on flights. tom: washington policy analyst joining us now. of what's important about this is the character of his note, no one rates as lengthy, detailed, smart notes on the hopes to be. ed mills this morning on the momentum on legislation, an open

question, where is there momentum of legislation? >> congress would love to do something about china. everything that we saw over the weekend as to the momentum there. congress would like to probably like to look at energy. that was only step one. it's all energy, all the time. that could be a surprise bipartisan win. you can see something on crypto ultimately. tom: is the momentum of legislation for a speaker of the house that does not want to be the next john boehner? >> make sure that your caucuses with you. i think with the speaker would say is that the 15 rounds of votes got a lot of the angst out

that the beginning of the process. he can focus on the things the caucus wants to do. this is a caucus that does want to do energy and china legislation, that is why it is front and center. you will see plenty of coverage of their investigations as well. jonathan: how many people are asking you about flying objects and what do you say back to them? >> i absolutely get the question. this is one of those word situations where if it's aliens, it's a little bit of a relief. on a more kind of serious note, i've look at this and say there's a couple of things. one, is it that china is testing as more and that is a scary thing. is it that we are looking for these objects more and that is why we are finding them? however, when we look at it from a market perspective i was a couple of things. number one we let off the year with same we could have the fed's cuts. when we are actively shooting things out of the sky, good luck on the defense cuts.

number two, how did the biden administration respond to this? they put restrictions on the company's who made the bowling -- balloon that was shot on over north carolina so we look at the export restrictions as a new way in which we do defense policy in the country. does that extend to tiktok, does it extend to other chinese companies that are listed here in the night states? that's were i would be focused if i was an investor. lisa: it seems like the administration does no more. why are they not revealing more given all the speculation, the potential for this to be a really significant threat or something that is just kind of innocuous? >> that is an important question. they don't want to get in front of the intelligence the ring. at first, this was a conversation about is this a weather balloon and bent it was very clear that there was chinese intelligence and gathering. a kind of information of

communications over our military bases. they don't want to say it's not something and then it becomes something. they don't want congress to step in here and say that they are not being as transparent as possible. the senate is going to have a classified briefing on ukraine on wednesday. i would expect a biden administration to provide congress with a lot more information than. they are just getting the information in real-time and i don't think they want to be wrong. lisa: at the same time to say we can't roll out aliens coming down to the country, at a certain point you have to really wonder what the point of this is. what are you hoping for, to hear to get some sense of the sort of path forward. with respect to policy? >> i think what's spend unusual about the biden administration, especially since afghanistan is they have been somewhat de-classifying and providing

information in real time, lisa. i do think it is a situation where they are honestly looking for more information and don't want to preclude anything because they don't want to be second-guessed. i don't think they are trying to be cut by half but we are in a objectively peace time and in the last eight days we have scrambled fighter jets in north america tissue done for objects. that's very unusual. let that speak for itself. jonathan: ed, thank you. ed mills there. to ed's point it was pretty clear and obvious policy consequences. good luck try to get any cuts and the other obvious point antony blinken had to postpone his trip. the language of the administration, we should use their language. as far as going to say that goes

for the rest of europe particularly the u.k. if you see this headline from make u.k. spoke's person. when you hear this senate majority leader saying things like is something that should be looked at you concert to get a decent feel for where some of this is headed. lisa: what is the contours between a cold war at this point and that is something i somberly hashed out throughout the weekend. what does escalation look like if we haven't found a bottom, where is it? when you bring up europe, where is germany on this? it becomes a real issue because you have to have some sort of alliance at a time when you have the inflation protection act and the german economy is highly dependent on china both buying goods as well as supply parts. tom: after december and the huge surge we saw in equity markets, in january and now we are to

this massive ambiguity and it is foreign affairs international relations. i think the uncertainty is, it's not just about tomorrow's inflation report the retail sales report on wednesday, we go into a massive mystery, frankly into april. i think it's a jumble out there what is all this talk doing to china to be -- gdp? jonathan: i'm not sure it upsets the reopening. one thing i have seen tons of pushback. over the weekend, just hopes of china reopening. people really lining up. lisa: domestic consumption not necessarily out. ♪

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>> trying to bounce back after the year. nasdaq up 7/10 of 1%. worst week of the year and we were only down by a little more than 1% it has been quite a year so far. it look for a moment earlier this year that to your yields would come and lower. and this happened last week, the to your, the tenure of i more than 20 basis points. 4.53, and another to basis points.

yield highest of the year. crude, the stunning rally of more than 8% quite a run. biggest weekly gain going back to october. 86.42 on brent and wti, 79.76. lisa: i don't know what to make of oil prices. people are talking about rig celebration, i don't know. jonathan: i know reopening, europe, things are getting a little bit better. supply side was that they talked about last week. russia saying they were going to cut barrels by 500,000, 500,000 barrels a day. lisa: something like that and opec wasn't going to replace it. jonathan: that's news. tom: i'm lost. jonathan: talk radio, don't

rebounded. lisa: some of the losers of foster, how they were becoming big winners, zillow talking about the re-excel the operation of the housing market and the sentiment around that. premarket trading fissures are up 33.5%. a real estate company, you have to wonder how long this can go on before the fed steps in and says we don't want this. this is going against what we are looking for. tom: how much is a super bowl ad? a lot of money. millions. jonathan: usually you pay lots of money, yes. tom: my favorite was the morgan stanley. jonathan: the e*trade one with the babies. tom: i can't imagine the script. are you done with equities? lisa: that's fine. honestly there isn't that much going on today. i'm not setting over here crying

but advanced auto parts was cut to neutral if you take a look the shares are off touch. the losers here really a tumult was economy. -- two mulch u.s. economy. tom: i think the polarity of the duopoly. i don't think i have ever seen it. lisa: consolidation among the strongest players. caterpillar is down just a touch 1.4%. there is nothing going on. tom: cap photos to look at? jonathan: precisely the dame -- same day the dollar picked back in late september. you've got a decent idea of what's going on here. lisa: international purchases and the purchasing power. jonathan: the reopening story, i

think the strong data we have seen in the s reintroduces the question about the dollar strength. that is why you so the likes of morgan stanley dropped there. they need some clarity on a couple of things around the fed. the neutral rate and the strong data i think is upsetting a couple already. tom: we are going to come back and hear my favorite tv ad which is the morgan stanley e*trade ad i thought it was brilliant. i think they nailed it. there was someone talking about the manifests -- made of firs the baby turns and says i don't get it. joining us from morgan stanley, head of market research and strategy. what a great ad and what it captures is how many people in the equity markets are saying i don't get it. help me.

how do i get the stock market forward? >> an oldie into goodie on that particular ad. we are a bit stunned by some of the market action early this year. you are seeing a reversal, everything that was bad last year. on the one and you've got value running on china reopening we think that could be the truck -- trap. on the other hand and this has been repeated on your program as well a lot of the growth and particularly the nonprofit lower quality running hot on this expectation that the fed is done and we don't think the fed is done. tom: what's so important here in wealth management the rule is you have to participate. how do i participate in the market if i don't get it? >> excellent question.

when you look at the arc of the third the last 30 months or so since covid there has been terrific calls getting aggressive during covid in warning on inflation and warning on the equity market last year. now are our key conviction is getting paid to wait we are simply not seeing nf risk premium in the market today to be more aggressive. where are you finally seeing some of the seals obviously in fixed income. whether it's investment-grade or parts of an we think today as the economy slows as earnings reset for the overall index we want to see this environment. jonathan: really on top of it the bullish trade, the bear market rally, this year has been

tougher i remember some research saying it was an easy sell. no calling this a massive disconnect this is about is disconnected from reality what is it that you are seeing that makes this such a monster disconnect? >> i think a lot of folks are seeing the strength of the economy and are assuming no landing or potential acceleration. we have often been trained over history to recognize that the economy tells with the market in tandem. this is an environment or the economy and the market are diverged so if you even get the soft landing or the kind of low growth environment it doesn't necessarily mean it's a bull case for the market. the market has its own set of challenges today.

today when i vote at the market, we've got potentially waiting to put it later this year qt is still ongoing. inching closer to the end of the finish line but we are not in with qt. we have earnings that are resetting lower and if inflation doesn't nosedive, which it appears not to be anytime soon and it hangs out around this percent level it's hard to argue that interest was are going to go much below three so can't get back to 22 times that we had a couple years ago. the disconnect today is people trying to look through and we are just not there. lisa: what does getting paid to wait look like in terms of a portfolio? >> great question. as we articulated over the last six months that's been some of

the allocation moves we have made. you don't even have to take that much to ration risk. completely left for dead third three quarters of luster have certainly rebounded since the 10 year peak doubt we think we can continue to see some strength there and just lastly the dividend paying stock universe, dividend stocks and dividend growers for our armed market last year. we -- a very opportunistic time. lisa: duration risk is going to look more attractive to both credit and equity risk and she is talking about 10 year treasuries talking about it's time to start buying some of the since do you agree? >> we could get there our

official forecast is 315 for end of year so today at 370 plus there is some value there but that continued strength we saw on the job market a few weeks ago continues i would be shocked if we see a little bit of upward bias so that say anywhere between 3.5 and 4% is where we are seeing value there. jonathan: wonderful as always. dan scully there morgan stanley always very transparent. tom: that's a heritage of the firm. jonathan: this has been a tester to the year. tom: we mentioned this many times before good leadership but there is also involved as well they don't fight, they argue constructively at morgan stanley like cats and dogs. it's a heritage part of their firm.

steve galbreath was involved in that as well. jonathan: disconnect. you heard mr. scully talking about the willingness to look through some of this. this is what he said don't know how far the crystal ball goes to look through it but history is not kind to these kind of massive disconnects. lisa: basically don't fight the fed and when you do is at your peril. this is what i was wondering about over the weekend what does it mean to fight the fed right now? if the fed is stated dependent, is just basically market pricing. people believe there is going to be a greater disinflationary push then the morgan stanley's of the world. they see a potential for a soft landing but they think it's going to take a bit more pain. tom: i didn't know this when i came in the building. td securities is legging in.

it's a common practice used to lower overall costs on buying and selling complex strategies involving options and futures contracts. if you want to buy or sell apple its massive jargon hard for people with the 201 k, yield. it is like with multiple -- jonathan: i imagine that's what you do around the kitchen table. coming up next -- lisa: where do we go with this? [laughter] jonathan: now i forgot. michael nathanson, next. leigh-ann: with the first word

the start the country southeast a week ago the dental is now nearing 35,000 people in turkey and also neighboring syria. a turkish business group estimates economic lysis could reach $84 billion meanwhile turkey has widened its investigation into contractors after the collapse of the links now and a bank found some employees circumvented controls to make profits. bloomberg has learned project till showed some employees sold to smaller medium size companies even though they knew the products were too complex for them to use citigroup is nearing the sale of its mexican retail the financial times could be valued up to $8 million the owner is an exclusive talks to

purchase the bank. the ft said he sold -- he said the lay also be less drastic. goldman is slashing 6.5% of the headcount. global news powered by more than 27 hundred journalists, and analysts in over 120 countries i'm leigh-ann gerrans and this is bloomberg. ♪

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couldn't see if there was a soccer game in london i you can see it all over the world. 30 proteins --pro-teams. jonathan: i love that we got co-owner of boston celtics talking about football and not american football just about -- to find tom: the questions you had. throwing questions into mayor asked steve. jonathan: did you ask steve about basketball? tom: we got there. jonathan: pretty broad franchise. tom: i watched a little bit jonathan: of it. that's so unlike you. tom: it's that and jack nicholson at the lakers. jonathan: i get asked this

question a lot, where does it come from? tom: it's the heritage and i would say it goes back to a huge population in the 19th century. it's always been there. it's very ireland, very british. jonathan: that soy you gravitate towards boston sports? tom: i had the black-and-white photo on my ball and took williams, a baseball player. red sox. leases heritage is completely different. the minutes at a game last night. jonathan: i saw that. i was just thinking -- tom: should we talk to someone who knows something? she spent a frequent guest of ours. brilliant about the durability of events that touched 100

million people. senior research analyst michael nathanson. just continues to endure. what have they done that all the other sports just can't get right? >> good morning, tom. they have a couple of advantages. one favor, one advantage, gains on monday and thursday. the sunday activity, once a week, it's everyone's attention. the short season, there is exports camp languages the country now of attaining two. it's a great game for television. it's five in, it's wolcott on tv. just a perfect sport for television. tom: do the big tech companies by an out? i saw one image on twitter mr. cook attending apple music

sponsor what was her name? rihanna, thank you. apple music sponsored the halftime extravaganza. >> you are getting a little noble amazon on thursday youtube is the sunday ticket for the next seven or eight years this in day games that really matter on fox, cbs, and nbc. it's a chance for the nfl to renegotiate and depending on the state of the networks, maybe open up to apple, netflix. the nfl as he said would be smart, they kept their best games for broad reach, broadcast. they use the edges to experiment with streaming. jonathan: what can we learn from that experiment so far? >> what they are doing is the

main broadcast reach is reaching older folks like myself and around the edges on thursday, it's getting younger. you're losing older viewers. so the nfl has a plan, keep people like myself happy and bring younger people on from stringing -- streaming. it's working well for them. lisa: how successful was leslie taft i'm su -- was last nights halftime show, commercials? >> the real challenge is the weekly in and out and that is where the leak struggled to bring you all -- bring people in. last night more people watch that game. the other sports don't have the same intensity of the nfl. they are struggling to bring younger viewers and that's going to be the question, what did

they do to attract an audience that has pretty much cut the cord? lisa: i ask because you raised the question, the ads, it was all catered to a different jenna graph --demographic. ask your kids if they ever watched caddy shack or understood the reference to some of those movies? how many of your kids will know what that movie was? lisa: my kids. tom: i don't know what that was. jonathan: you never watched that? tom: michael nathanson doesn't fit me into their surveys. jonathan: who runs the wallet and how things are changing. >> it does. when you think about what you are trying to do, the edges, frank, 55 plus and 18 and under, is hard to get 18 and under on

television. 55 plus like myself, we are abundant everywhere. so 18-49 you have to try to reach those people. 18-49 cohort as of lastb night anyone. uy lisa: to stream the big football games, do you think the bulk will be the last sport american football to move to streaming fully and away from the networks or do you think it will be the predecessor of all else coming with that? >> it will be the last sport because it's working. the model works. people who own the rights have value.

baseball has challenges which it does. the nba has a new deal we will see what they do. the nfl is going to be the last to change. their model is not broken. it's working incredibly well right now. tom: just a quick image of mr. mosque in a black t-shirt and rupert murdoch sitting next to us give us the future of fox. >> they try to combine fox last year and a couple weeks ago the deal was killed. we have a buy on fox. it does all the sports and news. we think events is way too cheap in the brink of value usually getting 40's and 50's. at some point they may look to privatize.

it is so much value there it is a matter of time. it's holding quite well. i don't know, i'm not starting a rumor. there is revalue their, tom. jonathan: we appreciate it. tom: don't want to start a rumor but we will go with that, thank you, michael. jonathan: and test it. -- fantastic. tom: i just physically can't do it. i would like to go back and replay but i think i learned this morning you have to pay to see a replay of the game which stunned me. jonathan: you mean a full replay? tom: yeah. jonathan: where did you see that?

tom: i have to research it today. lisa: i think you had to pay for the second half, i think that is people got the preview of the first half and they had to pay the second half. jonathan: i don't know what he's talking about. tom: i think you taught me this. all the delays and the thing. with arsenal, we have to explain that. it's out of control. jonathan: the champion league final which gets a multiple of the super bowl final. tom: it does much bigger. jonathan: the champion league final police it should be a big spectacle and could learn something from the super bowl. lisa: who do you think should be the artist? jonathan: i think we should have chris stapleton every year. have him do every anthem and every halftime show. tom: what about rihanna for champion's leg?

jonathan: does it have to be a european band? tom: he was there. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight. for businesses of all sizes, there are a lot of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network.

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>> the market was asked to start as soon as january, and it is

clear that it was coming ended saying, -- and saying, "no, we are having a decent january." >> i would say that we are entering into the golden age of credit. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. tom: good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene on your monday. it is an odd monday. jonathan: this economy, the hard data has been pretty decent so far this year. there is more -- it is more resilient than they thought it would be. tom: the ether on friday was inflation may come in higher.

among those who watch each and every t leave -- tea leaf it is like, "woops." jonathan: we are looking for another bounce, a pickup tomorrow. tom: they were looking for a rewrite. it has been a rewrite monday. everybody seems to be adjusting on the lift. jonathan: let's talk about what morgan stanley is not backing away from, and that is there bearish call on the market. prices are as disconnected from reality as it has been in this bear market. lisa: they have been consistent with that even as it has become a really painful trade. the question is, when does reality hit?

if you do get this feeling from the cpi print that in does come in hotter than expected, used cars, the prices are going back up. last week people said, "you must to be a joy at parties." maybe it is granular, but it is important. tom: it is really germane to the story. lisa: that was one of the big drivers to disinflation. used car prices were coming down. now that has changed. at what point do people start to talk about effects and consequence, tighter rates actually causing tighter financial conditions? tom: that is the big number. that is my key item today. 1.38%.

21.27 on the vix signals a soggy friday. jonathan: worst week on the year, tom. i think that tells you more about the year than last week. futures are flying, tk. euro-dollar very clearest to 1.07 at 1.0695. tom: eiseman is senior portfolio manager at newberger. thank you for joining us in studio. >> i think it has been three years. tom: we are happy to have mr. eiseman with us for the entire half-hour. you and i studied, and he has

always been associated with your harvard, but he wrote at -- you are talking about a new paradigm. what is the new paradigm? >> let me add potential new paradigm. i am not smart enough to know if it will happen or not. what is a paradigm? it is the assumptions about how you think that are so embedded in your brain. it is similar to how you breathe. you do not think about how you breathe. a paradigm, you do not live in it, you inhabit it. paradigms seemed to last 8 or 9 years.

they turned to large financial institutions from 2001 through early 2008. they assumed the people who ran those companies were geniuses until they realized that they were not. with the fed lowering rates to zero and keeping, them there you were paid to take risk so people invested in growth stocks. within technology stocks, the stocks that did the best were those with large revenue growth but negative earnings. that is the paradigm we have been living in for the last 10 years. what could change it? the fed at some point will stop raising rates. the operative question is will they cut or will they leave them up there? powell keeps saying, "i am leaving it up there," and the market keeps saying, "we don't

believe you." if you take and met his word, then the days of investing in hyper growth stocks are over. it is not over yet, assuming i am right. if you go back to 2009, financials had their last hurrah after the world ended. 2009 was a large year for pretty much every financial company. then 2010 was over and it was over four 10 years. people do not change their paradigms easily. sometimes they have to be head on the head with a two by four multiple times for they realize that think -- that the way they have been thinking is not right. the fed to keeps rates high. will this be another great year for tech stocks? i don't know. jonathan: i get the sense from

what you are saying that what we're seeing today might be a last hurrah. steve: if the fed keeps rates high for a long period of time -- i'm not sure what the new paradigm is. i'm not einstein who literally created a new paradigm. i'm not even close to that smart. where do i think it could go? may it just goes to a more diversified portfolio. maybe it goes more to infrastructure related companies. if we do not improve our infrastructure, all our pictures are going to fall down, literally. i'm guessing at this point we go to more diversified portfolios. i don't think tech will be dead, but it will be more focused on

companies with actual earnings. people will focus on infrastructure companies. there will be stockpicking. call me in a year, and i will have a better idea. jonathan: i look forward to that. it is not about what the fed wants to do. it is about what they should or should not do. it was low rates, low inflation, low growth. there are reasons to believe that the inflation regime will be higher and stickier next year than in the past 10. steve: the major reason why inflation is more like it was in the last 25 years is that we moved out of -- companies moved out of the developed countries to asia where costs are lower.

what covid proved it to everyone is that while that supply chain was cheap, it was brutal. companies realize they cannot have a riddle supply chain, because that means if something happens, they will have no products. so you are getting supply chains moving back to the united states and other developed countries. you will have a more resilient price chain, but prices will be higher. lisa: you were famous for the big short back during the mortgage crisis. is there another short type of trade in this paradigm crisis? steve: it is not in the financial sector, if you're talking about negative. i would give applause to the vice-chairman of supervision who completely changed the banks lowering risk, killing leverage so whatever happens, it will not

happen in the banks. maybe it happens in private equity. i don't think, if there is a recession, it will be a run-of-the-mill recession, not a calamity. i don't see crisis in the banks, although maybe it happens like it did in the u.k. in the pension funds. jonathan: you will stick with us. stephen eisenman sticking with us as we work out this shift. to his point so many people are conditioned by the last 10 years of tech leadership, low rates, low growth. they assumed that is the destination. we are returning to it. tom: reallyi -- i really want to talk about returning to the reverse rate structure. when steve eisman was younger. steve: a lot younger.

i still have the same amount of hair. jonathan: i think that you get to a certain age where you cannot mention it. lisa: [laughter] tom: point taken. jonathan: looking forward to that conversation. lisa: can i build on one thing that you said? this idea that the paradigm shift has not been accepted yet, talking about reverting back to what you know -- jonathan: it speaks to that. futures up one third on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with the news from and around the world with first world news -- with first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans.

u.s. fighter jets shutdown objects over alaska and canada on the weekend and then another. beijing is preparing to down an unidentified object flying near a port city, homing a major naval facility. they claim that u.s. balloons illegally flew over china since the beginning of 2022. the imf is beginning talks with officials in ukraine. on friday russia launched its biggest barrage of missile attacks so far this year as president zelenskyy is seeking more weapons to fend off the invasion. then a deed of enya, the ceo of ferreri --

the ceo of ferrari says it is on track to unveil its first electric car in 2025. >> we have competencies within the company to unveil -- the electric for our will be the new e-car. >> he spoke to bloomberg at the ferrari headquarters in italy. i'm leigh-ann gerrans, and this is bloomberg. ♪ with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews.

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>> we really need to see inflation going to 2% in the medium-term. the medium-term is less. if we are close enough to that target in our forecast, we can certainly cause the process of hiking. jonathan: the central bank governor of portugal. if you forecast, you can pause hiking? is that what he said?

2 years out? this is why central bankers can just project their own success. lisa: they are conditioned by their past six months. jonathan: by definition we will be successful. within 24 months we will reach our target. lisa: they are downgrading their forecasts. can you extrapolate out the weather? jonathan: some people would tell you, you could because of climate change. i'm not going to. march 16 is your next ecb decision. we, up 2/10 of 1%. not much drama. 3.7454 on the 10 year. just to round things out, we

should talk about commodities with steve in just a minute, tom. crude back to 79. jonathan: we -- tom: we continue with steve eisman. he is with neuberger. i want to go to a chapter in " the long short." we returned to a real rate environment on the paradigm story. we can go from thomas kuhn to nesting to lab -- to taleb, and then we come to you who says we i deal with then new paradigm. steve: potentially. jonathan: let -- tom: what is potentially here is

a resurgence of real rates. will we see a sustainable real rate that gets us back to an environment like 2006 when you started the big short? steve: i think there is a possibility that inflation is backed up. you were mentioning before used cars. i just sold my used car. it had 85,000 miles on it, and i got a price i was shocked by. i will -- our groups have been buying bonds, at least some bonds. when we had cash we would park it in a money market fund that yields 4% or we buy 3 month treasuries with a yield of 4.6%. i will say it again, 4.6%. as long as rates stay high, the old addage, tina "there is no

alternative." there is an alternative. jonathan: paid to wait now. we have had these big moves in the equity market. can we talk about what you like in the equity market now? we are starting to see the minors outperform. steve: we have bought some minors recently. it is partially an infrastructure story. if you look at a chart of those stocks, i don't think they have done anything in 20 years. the minors will do pretty well here. lisa: do you think there is a bet to go more into bonds and cash as you play in some of the old economy that is coming to the fore again? can you give us a distribution you are looking for? steve: you can invest in tech

but you have to be more selective and have a -- we have a more diversified portfolio right now. a few financials, health care, utilities. like i said before, the days when someone has 30% of their portfolio in tech might be in the past. tom: i want to talk about the short-termism that is out there. the chapter that was the long quiet in the big short, there is the whole meme spac thing. how does our audience get back to responsible, long-term investment given how they fitted every week, every month by the back and forth? steve: dubai for, like i said -- 2 by 4,.

people have to be -- 2 by 4, like i said. people have to be hit over the head multiple times with a 2 by 4. hi revenue companies with negative earnings got destroyed last year. they were down 75% to 90%. people point out they have gone up a lot. when you go down 90% and then the chart goes up 100%, it does not make a big difference. lisa: it looks like one of the biggest pain trades in the wrong direction, towards the paradigm we have been familiar with for the past decade. steve: if inflation comes back and the fed raises rates more than people expect or keep that there, people's taste for such speculation will erode. it takes time.

maybe this is a year of the last hurrah. jonathan: some people are guilty of becoming married to positions. do you have a favorite position within the portfolio? steve: no, i don't. i'm not married to my stocks. jonathan: how do you go about doing that? steve: people have invested in tech stocks for a very long time. they love them. they are married to them. but i do not see being married to stocks. jonathan: steve eisman of the eiseman group. it has been three years. tom: those are the effects of the pandemic. are we still in that effect? what i have learned is we underestimate how those effects are still with us. jonathan: we have not spoken to steve since 2020 and we're

talking about a return to 2019. lisa: in terms of workforce disruption that people cannot really understand in terms of whether we are returning to work more or mondays and fridays we stay home. what do you parse out what the new normal is versus it takes a long time to recover from a global pandemic? jonathan: literally the third year of it. tom: the interview i thought the most of this weekend was william lee of the milken institute, who was scathing about the simplistic china certitude. scathing is the only word i have for it. jonathan: which is why i mentioned carl weinberg over the weekend saying the same thing. do not get too excited. lisa: the domestic push of all of the consumers in china --

and that is really the key point -- might not trickle out. jonathan: coming up in the next hour, morgan stanley investment management, we are catching up with jim caron. tom: that is a nice amount of green on the screen. it is a new paradigm. ui cannot -- i cannot spell it, but it is a new paradigm. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ( screams in joy) save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first.

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jonathan: -- tom: good morning, everyone. on a monday after the super bowl, we have 2 super bowl experts here. lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro! what is it like watching the super bowl with the sound off and then you turn it up for the commercials? lisa: "kids, pipe down, i'm trying to watch the commercials!" i wonder how many people are

just like me on this. with these particular teams were not the major metropolis areas? i don't know. jonathan: we will -- tom: we will speak to mr. barr here on bloomberg radio in the next hour. the readings are not out yet. lisa: we are hearing from the control room that it is about the eating, not about the watching. tom: barbecue! lisa: it looked like a convention inside the wing joint. tom: it is it is a good and beautiful thing. abramowitz looking at a 4.55% 2 year yield. it just want to stop, will it -- won't stop, will it?

lisa: what happens if cpi comes in higher tomorrow? that is the question we need to be asking. now it is a 1% loss on the week after an incredible game, an incredible start to the year. tom: we will keep you abreast of this. to sum all this, to speak of the greater economics and particularly the transatlantic economics, megan greene joins us with her academics here and there. thank you so much for joining us. you wrote in early december about the recession weight. give us an update -- recession wait. give us an update. megan: this will be the most anticipated rest session we have ever had, if it ever materializes! now it looks less likely to

materialize than it did two months ago. i still think it would be incredibly weird if we did not get the downturn given the aggressive rate of rate hikes. i wonder if that is to some degree a result of labor hoarding. we do not have a good way of measuring labor hoarding, but hoarding could change on a dime if rates continue to go higher. i think they might figure, "may be we should lay these people off." when the labor market declines, that will spark a recession. tom: one part of your academics, megan, is the idea of aggregate versus the modern theory of looking at this, looking at that, looking at the itty-bitty things, and not the sum. the parts of america that are booming -- booming air travel

over the last 5 or 6 years. half of america is flat on their backs. are you aggregating u.s., british, and european data, or do you break it apart? megan: looking at a granular early is important -- granular ly is important. there is a chance that we do not get an overall recession in the u.s.. instead we get a series of early recessions. service -- you get contractions, recessions and individual sectors, but not all at the same time so it does not add up to an overall recession for the economy. that is just for the u.s.. you have to look at other sectors in europe and the u.k..

given the relatively big energy shock europe has encountered. lisa: rolling recessions -- what does that mean? you could get growth in other areas that keep propping up pricing power. megan: i think that means that inflation will be difficult to bring down. i always thought that to get from 10% t sixo percent inflation would be harder -- 10% to 6% inflation would be harder than getting from 6% to 2% inflation. i think it would just mean that inflation is more persistent than we had previously thought. i also think it is worth thinking about what inflation looks like when the dust has finally settled on the pandemic, on the war, on supply chain disruptions. there has been relatively little

thinking done, on that but if you believed that we lived in secular stagnation and it was based on an excess of global savings, we will be spending a lot of money on the green transition. that could be moderately inflationary at the end of the day. on balance that will be a bit more inflationary. inflation may be persistently higher than what we had before the pandemic. lisa: people have tried to parse through them. the reason people are not talking about them more is because it is so hard to quantify. perhaps the fed could go higher in terms of a terminal rate and keep it there for longer. what are you modeling out in terms of what you expect versus market expectations? how do you know what the sense is? megan: i wish we had some metric

for figuring out exactly what the lag is for monetary policy feeding into the economy. we do not. have been -- we do not have a good handle on it. the markets are still pricing in cuts this year. that is unrealistic. i think the fed will keep rates high through this year. it depends on what the economy is looking at, whether we are in recession, going into a recession. i don't think we will go into a recession in the first half of this year. ti will take -- it will take some time. that could be pushed out even further. that could be pushed out to the beginning of next year. the fed will hike more than the markets are pricing. tom: how many degrees of freedom has governor bailey lost?

he his declaring victory. how constrained is governor bailey and working with the oddities of brexit in the united kingdom? megan: brexit is clearly causing a lot of uncertainty in the u.k. economy. that has been a drag on business investment, which leveled off after the referendum, and it has not bounced back since. that is a drag on productivity growth. you can have wage growth and it does not have to be inflationary. what we have in the u.k. is high wage growth with much lower productivity growth, so there is a risk of that being persistently inflationary. that is the challenge the bank of england really has to work with. lisa, we have to dive forward. we are all staggering in after watching the super bowl.

you said monday was a waste of time, to paraphrase. lisa: the dado was a barren wasteland of nothingness. -- the data was a barren wasteland of nothingness. tom: speaking of a barren wasteland, the denver broncos! lisa: michael mckee says it will not be a barren wasteland. michael: this is deliberate. i am wearing the new york mets colors and my boston red sox cufflinks because football season is over. lisa: you got decked out. michael: it is baseball season. let's go! lisa: that is our public service announcement for baseball. there could be a surprise to the upside in a way that people are not counting on.

michael: it could be a surprise to the upside. we know energy and oil prices have gone up. we know used car prices have gone up. what is really going to affect it are a couple statistical changes. the new seasonal adjustment factors have been applied already. they have revised the december figures. december cpi fell a 10th of 1%. that has been revised to a gain of 1%. we are looking at a core rate that was revised higher as well. right now, it looks like anything that comes on top of that could push things higher. they are also changing the weights. the idea in the longer run -- tom: they change the rules and everything of the game. lisa: they are changing the --

michael: they are changing the weights of inflation. tom: as you know, mike, we can identify disinflation, bringing it down lower, inflation, and reinstallation is undefinable in greater economics. when steve eisenman was -- steve eisman was talking earlier, is there a new inflation paradigm? is your work on inflation the same as it was in '07 or '97? or is it truly new inflation paradigm? michael: that is the hard part. we are in this weird transition between the new normal, which could be the old normal, or we could have a new-new normal.

we do not have a good idea of how this will all play out. globalism died. does it come back? tom: put a cork in mckee! we have breaking news. lisa: manchester united shares are surging. they are publicly traded. there they are. more than 6% gain. this builds on what we have seen of middle east oil money coming into the british football spear michael -- football sphere. tom: thank you to mickey who saved -- mckee who saved friday with the celtics chat. this is bloomberg. good morning. steve: keeping you up --

leigh-ann: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. with first word news i am leigh-ann gerrans. the death toll from the earthquake that hit turkey last week is nearly 35,000. the damage could reach $84 billion. turkey has widened its investigation into contractors following the collapse of holdings. an internal probe by deutsche bank found that some employees circumvented controls to make big profits. project deal should some employees at the foreign exchange desks sold derivatives even though they knew the products were too complex for those particular clients. goldman sachs ceo is recorded saying he should have acted

earlier to cut employees. oldman is slashing 6.5% of its headcount, one of its largest rounds of job reductions ever. the kansas city chiefs beat the philadelphia eagles 38-35. patrick mahomes ran 26 yards before butker kicked a field goal with 8 seconds left leading the cities to victory. powered by -- i'm leigh-ann gerrans and this is bloomberg. ♪

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expecting the export engine of china to push out exports, that is the wrong place to look. jonathan: as i mentioned -- tom: as i mentioned earlier, bottle it. if you care about china, watch our digital representation of that interview with william lee. he was absolutely scathing about the certitude we have, our simplistic treatment of china analysis. lisa, i cannot say enough about what billy said. lisa: he is saying it does not matter what the official numbers out of china are. it will not have the ramification play out that people are pricing out. lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro stay with us.

retail sales on wednesday. there is much more going on as well. what a highlight for us to begin this year looking at the risks the eurasia group sees. it is an informative way for us to kick off the year. we do that with ian bremmer, who i believe did not have a risk like this in his "power of crisis." this is incredibly difficult. you and i have talked about this over the years. there is early erdogan, middle erdogan, and now there is to one crashed. i saw on an internal feed here that mr. erdogan and other leaders dressed in black. the only other image i have seen equivalent to it was mayor giuliani and mayor bloomberg after 9/11. how does turkey regroup with

that 30,000 dead in central southern turkey. ian: it is staggering, a hardship with thousands of thousands of bodies still trapped and these survivors -- everyone at this point feels like a miracle. the devastation being felt by erdogan, across the border with much worse infrastructure in syria, it is hard to fathom. it is hard to talk about. of course, on your show we are also talking about elections coming up in turkey in may. the fact is that turkey has limited democratic institutions. this allows her to want to have a lot more control over what his people see, over the media, as well as how well the opposition can compete against him. the reality of this devastation also means that the opposition has had to wait in coming up

with their own consolidated candidate, opposition candidate, so they are not able to run their campaign because everyone is focused on this horrible, horrible tragedy. as much as it pains me to say this, the reality is that erdogan comes out of this crisis a little bit more likely to be reelected. tom: does he re-embrace a view to to the west end nato? does he look north to putin or does he look south, as he always wanted to, to be an international voice in the labonte? -- the levant? ian: before the earthquake erdogan was one of the best international interlocutors between putin and the lenski. he helped facilitate -- putina

zelenskyand -- putin and zelenskyy. the finns and swedes will make it easier for erdogan to get off of his high horse. the armenians, despite their historic genocide committed by turkey, have offered help. that will make turkey more likely to facilitate a peace agreement there. i think erdogan comes out of this more of a statesman, more willing to be engaged with the americans, with the europeans,

and i suspect that those american f-16's will get cleared by a biden. lisa: shifting more to the east, talk about the potential risks. we have to talk about the ufo's , the balloons that have been shot down over u.s. airspace. what are the contours of a new cold war between the u.s. and china? ian: we are not in a new cold war. that is the reality of today's politics, and they want to avoid it. that continues to be true with what has happened over the last week. the american administration believes that the purpose of this balloon surveillance program is a backup by the chinese in case any conflict with the united states may lose their satellite capabilities,

which are far more capable and engaging in surveillance than any balloons. if there worry military crisis over taiwan, how would the chinese be able to assess intelligence around the world, including principally for the united states? the u.s. government at no point believe that these balloons reflected an additional surveillance threat to the united states at all. that is one of the reasons why before this became a headline, blinken was still going to travel to china and meet with xi jinping, and the americans had no intention of shooting anything down. once it got in the headlines and once you saw everyone standing up and saying "we have to be tougher against the chinese," then biden had to call off the trip and shoot down the balloon. lisa: that is where i wanted to go.

do you feel like the heads of both statess, would like to ease relations? it is making it difficult for them to do so. ian: i don't know how it is -- how much it is the populations that large. it is both sides of congress, democratic and republican. you remember when nancy pelosi was making her trip to taiwan. biden did not want her to go and privately was sending members of her cabinet to tell pelosi, "i would rather you not go on this trip," but once that got leaked, then biden had to get on board. we are seeing this over and over again. mccarthy will make his trip to china. i think biden and xi want to put

a floor under the relationship. tom: to use your eurasia contacts that you have, it is a spectacular note from the u.s. embassy and consulates in russia. it is dated 12 february, 2023 and they are basically saying " u.s. citizens, get out of russia." the " unprovoked full-scale invasion of ukraine" -- do your analysts anticipate a full-scale invasion of ukraine by russia? ian: beyond what they have already done? tom: beyond what they have already done, something new as the u.s. embassy alludes to in moscow. ian: we have had 300,000 plus

troops going into ukraine. they tried to remove zelenskyy. that is still the ultimate intention of putin but he does not have the troops to affect that outcome in the near term. they want to have increased offensives to take the territories they announced they have annexed. that is where we are focused right now. the question is beyond that are we going to see broader russian asymmetric attacks against nato? we have seen attacks against italy. jonathan: we are out of time -- tom: we are out of time. thank you for the brief. we will continue this.

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jonathan: trying to bounce back from the worst week of 2023. equity futures up about .1%. the countdown to the open starts now. ♪ >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new york. stocks on hold after the worst week