caroline: i am caroline hyde at bloomberg world headquarters in new york. ed: the market risk on when it comes to tech, not too hung up about the talk about ufos. caroline: let's get to it. coming up this hour, secretary of state lincoln considering a meeting with china's top diplomat, the first face-to-face talks since the u.s. shot down a chinese spy balloon. ed: in spite of rising tensions with china, ford teaming up with a chinese company to build a giant battery plant in michigan. our conversation with the ev of industrialization. caroline: the crypto crackdown is putting a finance link in the crosshairs. first, we check on those markets. enthusiasm when it comes to stocks.

1.5 percent higher on the nasdaq. last week it had its worst selloff this year. it seems as though forward-looking expectations dialed down this year. msci up .8%. europe had a good risk on rally as well. we did see elevation in terms of two year borrowing costs, mainly thinking the fed is going to have to tackle inflation above 6%. one risk asset that did not get much love has been crypto. i am looking at the bloomberg galaxy index that looks at crypto as a whole, not just bitcoin but other major currencies. it was on the downward directory. the reason, worries about the crackdown. ed: across the nasdaq 100, the majority of names were in the green. microsoft up 3%. you saw a number of analysts

with notes. steve felt out with a buy rating at 290 dollar upgraded price target, saying this is a transformational year. ai is part of that but 2024 is when we see microsoft start to flex. julio up 2%. the market cheering that despite it being an unpleasant conversation. ford up 2.8%, confirming the scoop from hultquist fridaythat it is a partnership hultquist for the latest battery pump for ev's. down 1% monday but on a two day basis carrying over from friday. i just flagged that because a lot of voices in the market looking at that as a trading market stock ahead of the cpi market on tuesday. caroline: not treading water at the moment is the tension around ufos. let's get you up to speed with the fact the u.s. has shut down its fourth flying object since china's alleged spy balloon last

week. secretary of state antony blinken is considering a meeting with china's foreign minister at a security conference this week. nato security general yun stoltenberg says china and russ are increasing surveillance and intelligence against the alliance. >> they are increasing their surveillance activities on different platforms. we see it with more and more satellites and with balloons. that highlights the importance of our vigilance, our increased presence, and also that we ramp up and step up how we share intelligence and protect our airspace. caroline: that's the international reaction. let's get the reaction of

bloomberg's alex wayne out of washington. is this untoward, weird, or is it the fact that people are finally starting to shoot them down? alex: we don't have a lot of answers about what's going on and why u.s. fighter jets are suddenly shooting so many weird objects out of the sky. the white house press secretary did say there is no indication that it's aliens. i suppose that is ruled out and we should look for a more mundane source for these objects. the defense secretary, lloyd austin, said in europe today they have not yet recovered any debris from the objects shot down over the weekend. they were shot down over lake her on, over alaska and canada. these are difficult places to recover the debris so i think it's going to be a while until we have answers as to what these things are. they were shot down because they presented a threat to aviation.

that comes from john kirby, u.s. national security spokesman. ed: in part the news flow is driven because, for the first time, we are all going out and looking for these things. that's the sense i get from your team's reporting in d.c. let's tie it to the u.s.-china relationship. what's the latest on the actions the u.s. has taken and how they view that relationship with china? alex: it's not helping relations with china. the chinese accused us of using balloons to spy on them. that was denied by the white house today. i think these things are being discovered because since the alleged chinese spy balloon floated across the u.s., north american air defenses have started looking for these objects. they are finding them. that does not mean they are all spy devices from china or russia.

there could be much more ordinary explanations. perhaps they are some sort of commercial or research aircraft that got off course, floated too high in the air and the air force felt they had to be removed. ed: bloomberg's alex wayne, top reporting out of d.c. i have been up for a long time today, covered a lot of stories and shows. i just didn't think monday would have me uttering ufo. we are trying to keep our audience in the loop, so we asked what you guys think about ufos. are you concerned? this is the response. 52% of a lot of respondents saying, not bothered. caroline: they are more bothered about rihanna, manchester united potentially being bought by qatar. they also potentially are realistic. how much is this actually tit-for-tat?

how much is this going on over these guys? how many objects are being sent over barriers? the u.s. over other countries and back to us. surveillance is kind of something we live with. ed: the jury is out until they actually find the objects that were shot down. then we can talk about ufos. let's broaden the conversation to the risks in technology moving forward, which could become a major headwind, according to bank of america. >> the other shoe to drop for attack is the regulatory backdrop. when you think about cyber attacks, data privacy, this is an issue that is affecting the man and woman on the street. ed: let's bring in john hultquist, vice president of intelligence analysis at mandiant security arm google cloud. you have heard the preamble, geopolitical tension, ufos.

it is 2023 the year of bracing for risk in whatever form it comes? >> we have seen a tremendous amount of activity from all kinds of corners of earth. we see chinese, russian, north korean actors and they are increasingly aggressive and targeted to everyday people. north korean actors now are carrying out a campaign affecting hospitals in the united states and the globe, where they are trying to ransom hospitals for money. ed: mandiant specializes in cybersecurity intelligence, seeing what is out there. what conversations are you having with corporate customers about the risks they face? what are you most worried about? >> a lot of our customers are pretty pleased with the intelligence we have been able to give them. we are much better than we used to be at seeing what these actors are up to. the problem is, how do you

change your security posture and adapt to the adversary? that's tough. it takes a lot of work to shift your posture and develop something like new ransomware or a new tactic. that's precisely what we have to do, evolve ahead of these actors. caroline: how much, when you are asking your clients and people you talk with and putting leadership out there with reports, how much is this self-inflicted from some companies? how much is it that we have the right security to put in place, it's just people are not putting it in? we are still leaving holes and vulnerabilities. >> it is really hard to always be perfect in this space. adversaries take advantage of the smallest mistakes. in many of the cases we have

seen, they take advantage of users who may not understand what they are looking at or they may take advantage of a misconfiguration. that happens all the time. these are very advanced adversaries and in many cases these are state actors, spies, not easy targets. we have been forced to essentially continue to raise our game against an adversary that we should not have to face, but we do. caroline: talk about how clients feel about security levels. what are they most worried about? is it nation state actors? activist -- hacktivistis? people doing financial ransomware? rank the anxiety. >> i think what's interesting is for every organization, the threat picture is entirely different.

that's why intelligence is so important. you have to determine who matters most to you. right now we are seeing this campaign of north korea against hospitals. hospitals probably didn't consider these actors a threat before. now they have to reconsider their entire security posture because of this. many times i have seen organizations who thought russian state actors were going to be the ones who went after them. the reality is russian criminals were the ones causing the real pain. using intelligence to make those decisions is what gets you ahead of the adversary. ed: john hultquist, vice president of intelligence analysis at mandiant. thank you for coming on the show. coming up, could there be a mass extinction event coming up for early and mid-stage companies? that's what ivp's tom loverro thanks, and we will ask him next

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with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first. >> inflation will come down but i think it will stay persistent for a. of time, longer than we anticipated when they started bringing interest rates up. i am optimistic we will find a balance point in the 5% range. that is one person's view. i also think we will end up staying there longer. ed: that was nasdaq chair and

ceo dena friedman speaking at the saudi capital market forum and giving her take on rate hikes, inflation, and the ipo pipeline. i want to get the private market take with ivp general partner tom loverro and about his prediction for startups in this landscape. ivp has $8.7 billion of assets. you tweeted at the end of january that late 23-2024 would be a mass extinction event for early to mid-stage startups. we have an inflation print tomorrow. do you stick with that thesis right now? >> absolutely. i think the trends i was talking about are going to persist for a couple years. lp capital coming back, fewer venture capitals. ed: my question is, what do these startups to do if they face a mass extinction event?

i have heard of some going to their bankers and saying, get someone to buy me because i can't raise funds. is that what is happening? >> i think a lot of startups in the last couple of years that were kind of marginal got funded. that was an easy money environment. we are trying to tell founders, the world has changed, the conservative with your cash, raise sooner. there is going to be a lot more m&a as the evaluation on these startups come down. the buyers are taking notice. caroline: raise sooner. in this environment, what does that look like? what sort of valuations can you hope for? what are you being pegged to, profitability, revenue? >> it depends on the startup. as a rule of thumb, startups go into the red zone on how much cash they have left when they have about 12 months of cash. you should be raising before then and certainly have your

round closed by six or seven months of cash left at the latest. in terms of valuations, the public markets have reset to a place we view as healthy. it was unhealthy. we had public-private companies going 50, 100 times revenue. . those days are gone. if you look at the public markets, growth adjust those and that's a good benchmark for startups. caroline: ivp has more than 40 years in this game. you stick around for 40 years by being collaborative, working well with other players. i am interested in what it is like when people are coming to you for a check and how you are treating earlier investors. i am hearing time and time again that some of the first checks are being written and when you go to the second round, you are losing a lot of power. the early money in is being diluted if they don't have the money to put in at the same time

as the second or third round. how are you seeing that evolve? who is winning and losing? >> our style of investing, we invest in things growing the fastest. we try to partner with early-stage investors. i think early-stage investors are paying attention to the markets. they have portfolio companies that are later stage, that are about to go or that went public. we are generally on the same page. it gets tricky when startups have to raise a new round below the valuation of their last round, called a down round. that's where incentives can diverge from early and late investors. we have not done one of those down rounds because we are focused on the companies that are growing. we have to grapple with that in the next couple of years, as will the whole industry. ed: there are those that delayed funding from last year. in some cases it is series b.

investors want to see evidence of profit. you have a choice, a structured deal and avoid a down round, or do a down round. how do you handle those situations? >> we are not looking for profitability. we want companies to be efficient but also grow. we do mostly series b and c investing and we expect companies to take significant losses but we are focused on unit economics. get the unit economics right, and if they get the unit economics right we can valuate whether we want to fund them. ed: -- caroline: always such great analysis. tom loverro, ivp general partner. amazon squeezing more money from its own 2 million small businesses that sell products on its marketplace. for the first time amazon's average cut of each sale surpassed 50% in 2022, according to a study that exampled

transactions going back to 2016. with online shopping not as strong after lockdowns ended, many are struggling to make money, prompting some to handle shipping themselves and spending less to advertise. metas chief business officer is stepping down after more than 12 years with the company. living in has held several positions at meta, including head of global policy, chief operating officer at instagram. living and will leave her post this month. her exit comes as a time of transition for meta-, which announced it will be cutting more than 11,000 jobs in a first major workforce reduction. ed: more job cuts at twilio, announcing a fresh round of layoffs in what the ceo is calling a focus on profitability. we will have that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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ed: twilio is the latest tech company to slash jobs and is doing it again, cutting 17% of workers just months after a previous round of layoffs. the ceo is planning to reduce office space and pare back benefits as part of the focus on profitability. here for more is bloomberg brody ford. it is noticeable -- notable they had to do a second cull. >> this is notable if you are a tech worker because most of us assume if they do a major layoff , if you made it, you are cool. this shows if market conditions continued to worsen, companies

will make additional cuts. this brings it to a total of 26% of the company, which by my math i think that is larger than any other large publicly traded tech company. ed: twilio is an interesting beast, $11 billion market cap. even with the cuts, headcount at 66,000. they have a founder ceo jeff lawson and he is addressing his own compensation. what have we learned about the cutbacks to his own compensation? brody: they didn't make a huge deal but he cut his own compensation 50%. many of us are tempted to say, understanding ceo. that amounts to about .4% of his total compensation. this is not a huge reduction. we don't know what his new package, but compared to 2021, it is about .4%. he made about $14.5 million. we are seeing a lot of ceos take

cuts in compensation, but when it comes to executives it's not the base salary, it is the stock options. caroline: we wonder what severance is like and how they support the workers they have to let go a second time. a lot of tech companies have tried to be helpful. it is twilio different, more exposed than others, or could this be a domino? brody: twilio has some unique troubles. they are unprofitable. we both know unprofitable tech has been battered in the current downturn. they lost 80% market value in 2022. no matter what company you are, a second round of layoffs is frightening across the market. ed: as you look across the companies that you cover, what is the commonality between them? are the layoffs done for this year or are we expecting more? brody: a handful of large companies have not done layoffs. people have expect -- i've

speculated why apple, oracle have not done them. we are not done. we have seen reports almost every day of this person is anxious more layoffs are coming. i think it is not put the bed. people should continue to watch and if market conditions continue to worsen, no one knows. ed: great reporting. coming up, more clampdown on crypto. regulators are calling on stopping issuing new tokens. the move sending ripples across the space. caroline: a look back at sunday's super bowl. we can all agree rhiannon was the real winner. so too may have been some tech companies. we will discuss later this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

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caroline: the crackdown on

crypto keeps coming. this time authorities are taking on two key pillars of the ecosystem. number one, stablecoins, the most traded crypto tokens, and two, finance, the world's biggest exchange. on this occasion, the new york finance regulator wants to stop the issuance of b usd, the third biggest stablecoin, and also a finance related coin. it is issued by a u.s. regulated entity. there is about $16 billion in circulation. stablecoins keep their value pegged to another asset, often one dollar u.s. there are about $130 billion of stablecoins and they are often used as ways of providing stability, a non-volatile crypto asset. they are kind of like an oil that helps greece the cogs of trading in crypto.

basically it acts as liquidity. busd is particularly important to finance because it gives investors the ability to access its exchange. investors got worried when you saw busd fall off its one dollar peg. you also saw other one dollar tokens fall and other crypto related stocks fell hard today. you are seeing u.s. regulators pretty busy this year. you have had fines handed out on some big exchanges, gemini and genesis and other names under investigation. all of this as regulators want to get on top of the crypto ecosystem and make sure it is being analyzed. investors are bracing for further scrutiny. let's dig deeper. the paxos decision, tell us the background because it is not just the new york regulator but some bigger ones.

>> let's talk about the stablecoin issue, because you mentioned this is one of the largest stablecoin. third-largest in circulation. it has to relate to binance itself. the stablecoin industry provides liquidity to the overall crypto ecosystem. in the past several months we saw lending attacked, now we are seeing a source of liquidity in the crypto ecosystem severely attacked. this is not about paxos, a u.s. regulated entity. it's about the relationship between paxos and binance. if you look at the department of financial services statement, they note that paxos and busd was authorized to be issued on the ethereum blockchain but was not authorized by the department of financial services was the binance peg. it is a rap version that relies on the stablecoin as collateral.

we had emily noel at bloomberg reporting that circle has separately raised concerns about binance's relation with the stablecoin ecosystem, so this is one shoe to drop in a larger story. ed: there is a distinction between this and the staking issue we raised in our interview last week. what is it? sonali: these staking issue also applies to the theory of issue because it is proof of stake. the sec is looking for ways that the crypto ecosystem falls under investor protection laws. when we are looking at a separate issue as it pertains to paxos, we are looking at this issue where they could be facing a possible lawsuit on the sec for violating investor protection laws. we have not seen sec complaints to that effect but we have seen paxos issue a statement saying

they disagree with the sec staff that these would fall under federal securities law, and said unequivocally there are no other allegations. you see two different regulators extending their authority over the crypto ecosystem in two different ways. the only thing the paxos ecosystem has in common with the staking issue is the sec putting more under their wing in crypto as it pertains to existing protection laws. ed: let's continue the conversation and bring in clara medalie, director of research at kaiko. when we think about the paxos issue, you believe there will be a pretty profound impact on stablecoins broadly. what will that be? sonali: one thing that's interesting is today busd is mostly used on binance and binance smart chain, the

blockchain operated by the exchange. busd does not have much use on other crypto currency exchanges. that's why this regulatory action was targeting binance and not stablecoins as a whole. i don't think this makes other stablecoin issuers immune, although it will be very difficult to regulate tether, simply because the largest stablecoin is not domiciled in the united states. ed: that was part of the conversation, binance finance positioning busd as a competitor to tether. there market shares changed proportionally over the last few years. where does that leave the relationship between busd and tether? >> this morning we found that 35% of trade volume on binance is denominated in busd, up from 20% at the start of the year. binance has made a huge

marketing push to get more users on busd. it seems they were not expecting this regulatory enforcement action. binance is incentivized to have their own stablecoin because stablecoins are very useful within ecosystems. i mean binance smart chains and any decentralized protocol that is part of the binance ecosystem. now they don't have this lever of growth, we are left with tether. tether accounts for the majority of trading activity in crypto. busd was a nice counterweight. it is never good to have all risk concentrated in a single centralized entity. with tether we sort of have this now. caroline: tether can't be regulated in the u.s. because it is not domiciled here. binance was using paxos that was regulated in the u.s. could they have a different issuer for busd somewhere else

to ensure they still have a stablecoin not under the legal oversight of the united states? >> theoretically yes. that's the biggest critique with this enforcement action, that it's not getting to the root of the problem. you would see a type of regulatory arbitrage. that's what we see with all exchanges that don't have headquarters in the united states. they are finding jurisdictions where they can operate and do what they want. caroline: is there going to be an overall global means of regulating in the near future? is anyone talking to other countries? do we have any clout other than the sec? >> i know that in europe they have taken a much broader approach to regulation and taken the path of issuing guidance rather than enforcement actions. we can see there is a large difference across regions. i think for now it's going to be difficult to get a global approach because there will

always be jurisdictions trying to attract business first and that always comes with crypto actors looking for the friendliest jurisdictions. ed: we were talking with sonali about the distinction between what we are seeing with binance, paxos, and what we saw last week from the sec with craig and -- with kraken. what's your read on the sec cracking down on unlicensed security offerings? >> kraken had one of the largest centralized staking providers, but it was different from coinbase. that doesn't mean coinbase is not immune from a regulatory action against their staking service. there were key differences in how each was ron and that's what attracted the sec to first go after cragin. coinbase is likely to put up a fight. they have more to lose because

they successfully diversified revenue into the staking business over the past year. i want to emphasize staking is not like the returns on your assets that you got with centralized vendors such as celsius. staking is fundamental to blockchain technology, specifically the ethereum blockchain. it is benefiting most people that are staking. there is no losers to staking today. caroline: when you are having conversations with players inside the world of crypto, ultimately the calling card of many companies has been, we want regulation. do they like this regulation they are currently seeing? >> this is regulation by enforcement. i don't think anyone likes regulation by enforcement. that doesn't mean the industry doesn't like enforcement. it is much for any centralized service provider. we are seeing after the celsius, ftx collapse that you can't

operate without some degree of regulation or transparency. it's more the enforcement actions catching the industry off guard. caroline: thank you so much. i will dare anyone to be as lucid and articulate as you are at 11:14 p.m. local time for you. i know crypto never sleeps. come back soon we hope. ed: terrific interview. coming up, it's the first vehicle designed without human controls and it carried passengers on a road. more on that next. i want to look at palantir, really interesting, shares surging after hours, the company recording its first ever quarterly profit in the final three months of 2022. one cent per share on a gap basis. it is saying 2023 will be the first profitable year. the market likes it, up 16% after hours.

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ed: zoox carried passengers in its fully autonomous vehicle on public roads for the first time. last week the electric vehicle ran a mile-long route carrying stuff between the two main buildings in california. the form will create a shuttle for companies on the same trip while it seeks clearance to expand the service to the public. let's bring in aicha evans.

you were along for that maiden voyage. i know you are always modest about what these things mean, but how close does this bring you to making this a commercial service? >> thank you for having me. modesty is important, being humble is important, but this is a big moment. i was along for the ride. this is the beginning of that foundation that from here we have additional design domains, more testing, extend our permit to carrying the public and onto our first paying customer. ed: how much does it matter that you beat general motors' cruise to carrying passengers on a public road in a purpose built autonomous vehicle? >> i think you know me well. there is a reason i called cruise and others fellow travelers as well as competitors. we are in a race with the

business and creating it. it does feel good. nine years working on this product and getting it out there. but this is about zoox and focusing on going to market. caroline: take us there. what sort of timeline are we looking out for a paying customer? >> first thing is caring for our employees. they will teach us a lot about the service. any time you carry a couple thousand people, you learn a lot about the service. we are seeing what's going on out there. we are going to continue testing and expanding the operational design domain. i can tell you 35 miles an hour feels really great. i can tell you the vehicle handled some really interesting scenarios flawlessly. it's about making sure we are set. we are going to las vegas, san francisco and continuing from

there. caroline: come to new york. the traffic is terrible actually. >> i am not afraid of the traffic, but there is this little thing called snow. caroline: we have not had any yet. i don't know what's happening with global warming, but no snow in new york. you have been in the business since february 2019. how many have you manufactured? how many do you think you can ramp up to? >> we have manufactured in the tens. we are building more as we speak. we have a manufacturing facility in california right by our headquarters, where we have enough to cover several cities. ed: i have been in that factory with you. i have seen how you make them in a modular package, lego type way. i was talking to caroline about this earlier. your principal job was to secure

this company's financial future, and you did. amazon bought zoox. what is the access to capital like? amazon had to make a lot of layoffs. is zoox having to cut back in a similar way? >> the partnership with amazon has been fantastic. we understand with the macroeconomy environment, one needs to be prudent. we are sad folks are losing their jobs across the industry. it is a small industry, we all know each other. zoox has always been prudent. i have an internal phrase, we don't binge and we don't purge. we are fortunate to be in situations where we are still going to grow this year, but we will continue to be prudent. ed: what's the next big milestone for zoox? what do we hold you to account on? >> getting to the point where we are carrying non-zoox employees. first all zoox employees.

right now not everybody can ride. by the spring all zoox employees will be able to ride on a continuous basis. then extending the permit to carry external passengers and the first paying customer. that's my big personal milestone. ed: you have told me that a number of times. we will have you back when you achieve it. zoox ceo aicha evans. ford announced a plan to build an ev at a plant in michigan in partnership with china's see adl , a deal that will create jobs but which comes at a time of growing tensions between the u.s. and china. i caught up with ford's vice president of ev industrialization lisa drake. >> as part of the plan for 8%, we announced we will build 2 million units in 2026. this battery plant, which we have announced will build over

400,000 vehicle sets of batteries, is about 20% of that 2 million. we will be able to build one of the lowest-cost types of batteries in the united states, especially when you take into account the production tax credit. this is a key landmark on the way to 8%. ed: you had an event there today. did you invite president biden to that event? >> i think you would have to refer that question to the white house. we appreciated the white house and the administration's support so far. >> we know the white house has been pushing to expand availability not only of the cars themselves but the batteries and other technology we need to make them. a lot of questions also about who we partner with. this a deal with the chinese company, fair or not, is going to raise a lot of questions about what we are sharing with

that company with regards to our own technology. how do you address those criticisms? >> i would start with the fact that the lfp technology is prevalent in the u.s. already. it is in consumer electronics devices. it is being imported today in some competitor ev's. this project is meant to de-risk the importation strategy by localizing it, building the technology here in the united states and in michigan. we have the ford industrial know-how and manufacturing capability that we will bring to bear and we are licensing the chemistry and technology from cat out, but most of the knowledge base will reside in michigan and the united states. caroline: they keep coming, the ev conversations. meanwhile, ferraris ceo told

bloomberg that the italian supercar manufacturer is on track to unveil its first fully electric vehicle in 2025, saying elective occasion is a new way to provide customers with a unique driving experience. >> we have a plan. we have a lot of competencies in the company to keep developing cars at this rate. for economic, for performance. ed: speaking of ev's, how many did you see this weekend during the super bowl ads? we will talk about that coming up, from breanna to ev's, the kansas city chiefs win, the super bowl goes viral. more on that, next.

caroline: boy, did it go viral and still viral today, sundays super bowl. tack along with rihanna, a key player. apple betting big on rihanna's halftime show. she dropped the mic. extraordinary she was able to announce a pregnancy at the same time as getting on giant iphones in the sky. she did some product placement with her fenty brand. there was a lot of product placement throughout. caroline: -- ed: electric vehicles. they outshone combustion engine vehicles 3-1 according to bloomberg analysis of the ads at halftime. you had will ferrell with general motors. it was cheeky but we knew it was coming. we will see if there is a

reaction in this marketplace. caroline: not a crypto at insight. google had one for its phones. workday had a fun one. across the board, i always love the ads. as a brit, i am in a for the halftime, the adverts. ed: don't use the term rockstar unless you are a rockstar, brilliant. caroline: i know you enjoyed it, i'm sure we all did. enjoy this viral moment. we are going to be consuming these videos for your to come. that does it for this edition. tomorrow tom siebel is going to be joining us at 5:00 p.m. new york time. ed: a lot to recap on the podcast. apple, spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. this is bloomberg. ♪ and we know 80% of couples sleep too hot or too cold. introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms,

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