tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg February 15, 2023 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
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>> welcome to daybreak asia. >> australia has just come online. asian stocks set to follow wall street higher with treasury selling off as investors way fresh data. u.s. retail sales jumping the most in almost two years. asml accuses a china-based former employee of stealing data related to advanced chipmaking. let's take a look at our asian markets opening this thursday session. earnings remain key. all of this a lot to process for investors who are working toward a second day of testimony from the governor on friday.
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the aussie dollar still holding under 70 since u.s.. taking a look elsewhere around the region, we are seeing a modest downside when it comes to trading in kiwi stocks. an assessment is currently going underway when it comes to the impact of the earthquakes we will be waiting to see what the fiscal and economic repercussions are given the state of emergency and the sheer amount of damage we have seen and disruption to the new zealand economy. nikkei futures looking flat at the minute and we are seeing a little bit of weakness when it comes to trading in dollar-yen falling under the 134 handle. parks u.s. futures letty flat right now. investors trying to gain a sense of direction at this point. it was a very volatile session already. we had stocks falling after a
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strong retail sales number. they recovered. rates were up stocks were also resilient. nonprofitable tech was outperforming. perhaps investors were a bit more bullish on the sense that the economy was pretty resilient. we also have factory output beating expectations. treasury higher the dollar higher. we also have pressure on crude prices on top of that we have eia data showing the crude stockpiles in the u.s. rose last week. let's discuss the retail sales numbers. kathleen hays is here with the latest. what do you make of this? >> it's interesting because out there on the horizon or somewhere down the road in 2023, we have recession concerns.
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manufacturing has been week but then the consumer keep spending money. this latest report in january was something. there were statistical seasonal adjustments and shifts and yes it could have made it a bit stronger, but up 3% that is an extremely strong number. it is way stronger than the forecast of 2% and it follows two months in a row of declines of a full percent. 2% 3% is even bigger. let's look at the details. up 3%, if you take out autos which were up nearly 7%, that number is 2.3%. that alone we would have said this is so strong. department store sales were up 17.5%. furniture that something you don't think about. gift cards may have padded these
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january sales. people used to go christmas shopping and spend a lot of money in november december, now they get gift cards and they spend it in january. the consumer isn't slowing down the rate hikes, what is that going to mean for the fed? it certainly doesn't mean they are going to pause. what's most interesting to me is you look how we have gradually seen the markets expectation of the terminal rate how high the fed is going to have to put it. it is now up to 5.3%. as you can read, maybe people are thinking this went to be a total of 75 basis points this year rather than 50 basis points. they are still saying the recession worries are out there but manufacturing jumped in the latest month. homebuilder conference has
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plummeted but it has come off the lows. it's tough to think about anything more than -- anything other than more rate hikes. >> inflation is our driving the ecb to further rate hikes as well. >> christine lagarde wants to make it clear they are ready to do another 50 basis point rate hike. she was speaking at an event today, here's what she said. >> in view of the underlying inflation pressures we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points. then we will evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy. >> maybe she is doing this because of the last meeting in january. there was a sense that they be a hint that they would necessarily do 50. she is doing everything she can to make sure that hint is forgotten if there was one.
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look at inflation, 8.5%. it is coming down, it is off the peak but just like the fed reserve, they haven't done enough there has been three months where it has been coming in lower lower each month. that is still not enough and the head of the irish central bank said he is open to more forceful action. count him in the camp of the hawks. they still seem to be leading the way. again another central bank big inflation problem. we look at the reserve bank of us try and the pummeling, the head of the rba has gotten this week for say more rate hikes to come. he said nobody likes to have -- to see this, but if -- this is what you have to do. >> kathleen hays there. let's get some other look at the
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markets. the central bank kind of driven concerns don't stop this week. we have southeast asia in focus. what are you watching? parks i'm watching how, what the translation is from the strength of the u.s. dollar. that is something that so far is an issue that hasn't dropped. we have had some very strong selloffs and bonds. equities in the u.s. and elsewhere have remained reasonably resilient. it's partly explained by the idea that perhaps good economic news in the face of these extreme rate hikes is good news for equities. it shows that economies are resilient. they will be able to cope to some extent with these rate hikes. that's ok. the bigger question for asia is if this more elevated u.s. rate expectations lead to a higher
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u.s. dollar that everybody has been expecting, what is the big impact? part of what led to emerging markets and asian markets having a rough time lester was the u.s. dollar strength. do we get a return to u.s. dollar strength? the factor is what goes on with china and its reopening. that's a thing that caused a lot of pain in markets. this year the outlook for china is more hopeful. >> on top of the u.s. dollar, if you do have the fed hiking for longer and peak rates higher, what about others easing rate hikes? >> it's the cutting side that would be the difficulty. a lot of central banks including in asia, the developed markets
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like in new zealand, some of them moved ahead of the fed and faster at least initially. they did plenty of work on that side of things. a lot of them are quite satisfied so to speak with the results. they slow down the pace of those hikes and a lot of them are looking to stop. we are only looking at the fed being repriced so it's going to go on doing 25 basis point hikes for longer than get a hold at elevated levels for longer than have been expected. is on is that is the case with the u.s. and as long as central banks here are looking at holding rates to be sure that their economies can cope with the levels they have already done, there's not going to be too much of a read through. if you start to get a pivot toward lower rates from some of the economies in asia, that's when you could face some blowback from the relative strength of the u.s. dollar
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compared to the expectations you had for it. that's when you could have some very strong moves down and emerging asian currencies. that would start to counteract any attempts to move toward easing and ward off central banks from moving their own rates down because of the impact from the u.s. dollar gain. >> let's take a look at some of the movers so far about 10 minutes or so into the start of trading in sydney. watching a lot of these earning stories in particular westpac is one that we are watching when it comes to the numbers. we're focused on some of the other financials as well. we are watching -- the only outperformer out of that lot but 7/10 of 1%.
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we are looking at potentially some lift from the revenue. the gold minor rejecting a takeover offer. that was made earlier this month if you recall and it would have been the biggest takeover globally this year. there are expectations there will be a renewed bid. new crest coming through with first-half earnings as well. vonnie: asml has accused a former based -- china-based employee of stealing chip data. the company has launched an investigation and tightened security. it says the incident may have violated export controls potentially exposing the company to regulatory backlash. it is the second such breach linked to china in a year. adani group is looking to reassure investors.
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a source says banks are setting up meetings with bondholders in the adani group. some 200 financial institutions worldwide including across have had exposure to the $8 billion in dollar bonds. white house officials have reportedly reached out to a key democratic ally to fill the space of the chicago vice chair. the world bank president is stepping down early giving the biden administration more time to find a replacement. the lender says he will leave his job by the end of june. washington has called for firms -- reforms at the world bank. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn.
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this is bloomberg. still ahead a central bank governors is pledging to seek out his term. westpac joins us for an analysis of what is next for the rba. but first top picks among multinational brand retailers. this is bluebird. -- this is bluebird. this is bloomberg. ♪ helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep ♪ puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪ go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid.
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. take a look at how u.s. retail stocks traded today. we had a huge jump when it came to retail sales numbers of the most in almost two years. abroad upside given the optimism in that sector. your to date we have seen retail being one of the best sectors but will this continue? retail is one of the most
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cyclical sectors and if you have a growth indicator showing any kind of weakness, where does that leave these big companies? our next guest top picks are some of the big retailers like nike, multinational brands. are these companies specific calls or do you like the broader multinational retail sector given the potential for more upside with china's reopening? >> we definitely are encouraged by strong traffic rebound in chinese new year followed by the valentine's day weekend. the lines are back. the lunch break shoppers are returning. if you go to the shopping, you see the malls are all very crowded. most people don't wear masks.
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it is pretty much back to normal in china and the reopening definitely is occurring. so far it is sustaining to the economic economy in china. we are bullish on the retail names in general but for luxury sector, the other structural -- is that they have tremendous pricing power. even if the retail density doesn't expand this year, they just need to keep hiking the price by 10% or something like that. the sales will grow double digits. we are benefiting from extremely low base last year and q4 was definitely a bottom. >> the u.s. is a big question, are we going to achieve a soft landing, are we going into a recession and if we are, how short-lived and -- or how deep could it get? do you trust the u.s. consumer
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to continue spending? >> over the past two years, especially 2021 2022, the helicopter money was delivered to the hands of consumers. the base was very high. when it was reported the u.s. data sales data, gucci sales data today on paper it looked terrible but it is really sort of man-made volatility over the covid years. 2022, our view is it will be a year for normalization for the retail pattern. we still think that wealth driven aspirational consumption will continue. >> when it comes to your picks within the luxury space, you are bullish despite the deceleration we have seen, the problems that were had with gucci and others as well. do you expect a meaningful turnaround for the house? >> caring is a large group.
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it has a balance the geographic portfolio as well as brand portfolio. gucci's weakness is likely to be dealt with the new designer coming out in milan in september. however, the other brands are likely to offset the weakness. in gucci as we saw very strong momentum in greater china for example ysl was growing more than 50% the first two months of this year. so was bb. the beauty of the group is you have the very well diversified products in the collections as well as geographic exposure. >> when it comes to the revival of chinese consumption i
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understand you have as with a lot of other markets revenge spending i should say read -- dressing and a lot of that at the start of the economy reopening. how sustainable is that particularly as we start to see further with us in the property sector with a big driver of household spending, household confidence in china? >> for luxury retailers, they have two strategies. being parallel. one is deepening to monetize the wallet of those ultra-wealthy clientele. the other strategy is to introduce entry-level leather products. lower-priced items to entice the first buyers. last year, we saw where the traffic slumped, they tried to focus on the ultra-wealthy by
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throwing the events and vip gala dinners. so they make the revenue that way. this year since the traffic is bouncing back very surprisingly strong, we believe they are probably going to refocus the first time buyers by introducing the collection of lower price points. again the aspirational consumption is not exactly a cyclical, but it is less immune, less impacted by volatility in the macro condition. >> really great to have you with us today. you can get around up of the stories you need to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. it is also available on the mobile app. you can customize settings as well.
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total crude inventories rose to their highest since the summer of 2021. for more let's bring in our contributor. it really doesn't help the dollar was stronger today but how are investors reacting to this report? >> inventories jumped by 16.3 million barrels. it's a big increase but i have to mention it is largely because the iea used adjustment factor, no one really understands how it works. it is a difference between how much crude enters the market supply then how much leaves the market what they call disposition. it is negative for crude prices as we can see today, but traders i spoke with are saying they are focused on the macro picture.
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we know that for example trajectories for demand is much better but for supply it is not improving. also brand has flipped to degradation which the good signal for the market. >> we had another release from the iea today. it what was the biggest take away? parks that iea improved forecast for global demand. now they expect it will increase by 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter overall this year. demand will be higher by 2 million barrels. they mentioned china is playing as usual as the economy reopens it will bring more demand for crude. they said that oil market can remain in surplus during the first half of 2023 but it can flip to deficit during the second half of this year. since they mentioned china, many
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traders are keeping an eye on china's purchases of crude. china has been buying more crude during the past two weeks or so. quite recently they bought 10 million barrels from the uae and chinese refineries are now processing much more crude. >> good to have you with us with the latest. tokyo and so, some of the stories we will be getting the january trade numbers this year -- later today. the financial services agency also reportedly starting in many fields including pet insurance. and south korea watch out for the finance ministry's monthly fiscal report that is out at 10 a.m. seoul time.
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the struggle for dominance in the k pop industry rocks on. >> up next, looking at the new flashpoint in the chip wars. asml accusing a former china based employee of stealing data. we get the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ these days, our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20 million xfinity customers, on us. so you get more of the speed you need
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biden is set to depart the white house national security council. she is leaving her post next month. white house officials say her export -- her exit plans are not related to the chinese spy balloon. u.s. stock trades will soon be settled twice as quickly as the sec shortens the time needed to just one day. it aims to relieve issues created by the meme stock mania of 2021. xi jinping says china needs stronger measures to boost domestic spending. it must grow incomes for those most affected by that pandemic. consumer credit report should be increased -- support should be increased. it was announced wednesday in a communist party magazine.
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a shock decision to quit as the scottish first minister is seen leaving the scottish national party in disarray. her successor will be tasked with a strategy to win big in the next u.k. elections. >> this decision comes from a deeper and longer-term assessment. i know it might seem sudden, but i have been wrestling with it albeit with oscillating levels of intensity for some weeks. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. >> sources have told bloomberg that data from asml, the company is blaming a former china based employee. this isn't the first time asml
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has been targeted. >> no, it provides such a critical part of the semiconductor supply chain. it has been targeted from at least 2015. asked year, particularly egregious case came to light where a former employee had basically been siphoning lines and lines of code and data software from asml to a chinese chipmaker. it's very easy for asml to be targeted just because it's equipment, they provide one-of-a-kind equipment for the most cutting edge technologies. they have been targeted for years.
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>> tell us how critical this technology is. if you steal this kind of information, how challenging is it to replicate it? >> we are talking about lithography machine equipment. there are only three lithography equipment maker's. asml competes with a much smaller japanese rival. only asml can make these particular machines to make the most cutting edge chips. they shrink and print patterns onto silicon wafer's. they are critical in making particularly smaller transistors so you can pack or power onto each chip so you can make
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smaller devices that pack more processing power. at the same time it is very hard to replicate an entire chip supply chain or a machine just from a bit of software. these machines are really the fruit of decades of cooperation, global cooperation even calibrating a lithography machine requires partnerships with chipmakers and materials providers. people who make the chemical washes and gases that help make machines work. even just calibrating the equipment takes a lot of expertise and cross chip. asml has said that this isn't, the theft is not material to its business.
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they don't deny that anyone would be able to replicate their machines just from this one incident. that said, technology transfer does happen, it just takes a lot of time. >> do we know if there is a state connection? >> that is one of the important things that we don't know. all we know at this point is that there was one employee based in china that is -- ams -- asml is accusing of having stolen some data. they have alerted the u.s. and dutch authorities that they are investigating the matter. they say that some u.s. export restrictions have been violated. this kind of all speaks to
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whether it is state sanctioned or not, there is a lot of money riding on this kind of technology. each of these lithography machines take millions of dollars worth. in china, the walls are closing in on china's access to these technologies to make the top-notch chips. china is desperate to create its own independence. >> so important and critical sector not only for china but the rest of the world. let's turn to adani. the group will begin calls for bondholders seeking to reinsure investors following the plunge in the price of its debt. it continues to deny fraud allegations made by hindenburg research.
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>> from the rooftop of this house, adani dominates the skyline. >> other than one facility, the rest is all adani. >> in 2010, there were three public listed adani companies. now there are seven and another five thank you. in the last decade, adani became india's fastest growing infrastructure conglomerate with one third of the country's capacity to the largest piped gas license area. >> those are large investments, a large percentage of the domestic are get in terms of capacity and capabilities. >> the india infrastructure story is littered with fallen fortunes. credit suisse red flag the adani
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group and nine others in its prophetic house of debt report in 2012. many on that list have since struggled but adani seemed unstoppable. friends in high places, a debt fueled empire, mysterious investors and a meteor again in share prices adding to his controversial rise. to hindenburg research struck his plan to use high-priced equity to repay debt. >> a lesson for everyone is that we should believe in -- governance and open our records for everyone in the world. i'm quite sure that adani will bounce back into force. >> foreign lenders that hold close to half debt are less confident. at least one adani partner is
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reviewing future investments and there is fear this might hurt for interest in infrastructure, manufacturing, and green energy. >> india is a big country with a number of companies and infrastructure investments that use opportunity. i think foreign international providers -- >> india is not just adani. it is partly right despite the high debt and still high market capitalization, the adani group scandal has so far had no contagion effect. though it has punted a social media wave of nationalistic messages supporting adani and indian enterprise. meanwhile, the lack of formal jobs in the region while counting a 6000 ruby loss on
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adani share investment. >> coming up next, shares of expectations preparing for a second day of grilling by lawmakers. this is bloomberg. ♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, so let us focus on the how. and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number.
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>> sometimes the effect that is all shaded down to make has been unfair. it's the board, there are nine of us including michelle that make these decisions. we take them collectively. it's not just me making these decisions. there are nine people based on the advice of a large staff. >> that was just a preview for friday's semiannual testimony when they will be facing questions. joining us for more is a senior economist at westpac. we really got a lot out of the shorter session yesterday. what did you make about the path forward and the takeaway for the markets is how he is feeling about what he calls this narrow
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path that the rba is on. >> we are getting a strong indication that he is prepared to go further than currently expected on interest rates. he is clearly very concerned about the inflation situation here which has gone from one of household and supply chain disruptions to inflation spreading to the services sector. with the amount of uncertainty around that, he is clearly contemplating going higher with interest rates. >> the problem that he keeps getting pegged on was the guidance near zero until at least 2024. we've had nonconsecutive meetings. this chart shows the fact that the rba remains hunted by this formed -- forward guidance. has the guidance and communications been a problem for you given that he says the issue is that maybe he talks too much but others say perhaps not enough. >> at times there have been
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communication issues without a doubt and what we are hearing from yesterday's terrace money -- testimony is speculation across the wider public at feeling misled and one-sided by a significant increase in interest rates. in the markets we tend to be quicker to pick up on the signals that come through. certainly we were listening more closely when we were seen global inflation takeoff and question whether australia would be any different at that stage. for many people it has been a source of frustration at times. we can see another the governor is studiously avoiding giving anything like clear guidance. >> as an economist, would that be lessening if he did what pretty much any other central bank does including speaking more doing more of these press conferences and interviews? >> it's hard to say. we have had a decent amount of munication over the last year.
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the regular speeches have at times articulated very clearly. at the margin the regular press conference would probably add a little more color where there is a change, an apparent change in view. as markets and economists, we are never going to say no to more communication more information. i guess the thing at the moment is that we are all operating in the dark as far as uncertainties around inflation, the path of interest rates. there's only so much you can do to remedy that when there is so much that is contingent on the data flow coming out that is hard to predict. >> at the point it's a challenging environment. for any other central banker around the world. when you look at the things that he has done including during the pandemic, what do you make of
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it? how would you evaluate him? parks i think i would have little bit of sympathy for central banks in the sense that they took out insurance during the pandemic time over delivering on stimulus and the consequence of that was having policy a long way away from where it needed to be given the subsequent inflation search. he sort of had perfect 2020 hindsight, you would have started tightening quite significantly in early 2021. that would be a really big call. at that time we just had a vaccine rollout starting to address the pandemic in australia. we still had a delta lockdown that came nine months later to continue to pursue tightening through those sorts of disruptions given the level of anxiety, the viruses that stage would have been difficult. the insurance meant that
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policymakers when they got hit by this inflation search had to go on faith, it didn't have the luxury of time to wait and assess what the interest rate rises were doing so having to assess on much more uncertainty than in the past. >> this year, we're definitely expecting more weakness for the australian economy but that is not still a sincerely a recession, is it? >> know, we think we will start recession. the scale of the interest-rate tightening is about as big as what we have seen in the space of a year. when that happens we know it impacts the household sector significantly. variable rates particularly, there is a direct cash flow effect for most mortgage holders almost immediately. gives a quickness of action in terms of the household sector and what we're seeing now for the household sentiment at recessionary levels, we are on
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the cusp of a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. that's going to slow the economy to stalling speed for the second half of this year. that is a week result for an economy when you have population growing at up to 2% per annum. we don't believe there will be associated layoffs driving 2% to 3% which would be garden-variety recession but as close as you would get to a recessionary environment and there are obvious risks. the question is whether it's worse to go too far or not far enough. if we go too far, we do crystallize some of those recession risks. if we don't go far enough, we might have a more enduring inflation problem. this is a lot of heat and frustration as a result of its rapidly tightening and policy. there's a lot of people looking for someone to blame.
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the u.s. senate passed the resolutions condemning china for the spy balloon. the resolution condemning china's use of the suspected surveillance balloon that was shot down by u.s. jets over the past weekend. it was a rare moment of unity in what we know is a sharply divided chamber. the u.s. senate has also passed resolutions condemning china over the alleged spy balloon. when of the president biden is considering a public address ahead of his trip to poland on this alleged spy balloon incident as well. >> we have breaking news out of japan. we are getting the trade figures. exports growing 3.5% year on
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year for the month of january. this is easing substantially from the previous month but still not a contraction which is what economists had expected. imports rising 17.8%. that leaves a trade deficit adjusted of 1.8 to ¥1 trillion for the month of january. that is slightly smaller than economists had expected although it has ballooned from the previous month. we continue to watch the strength of the japanese yen given that it really affects the value of exports and imports. we do have core machine orders as well. giving us an indication of the demand for equipment, we are seeing growth of 1.6% month on
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month for the month of december. this is really surprising to the downside but a rebound from the previous month when we had a contraction of more than 8%. really we're trying to make sense of these numbers. we will continue to watch japan very important when it comes to the global demand picture. let's stay in japan. the boj governor will be taking over to face something japan has not really seen in decades. we are talking about wages rising at their fastest pace since 1997. this is adding to inflationary pressures that the central bank wants to control. let's get more with bloomberg senior editor in tokyo. even if we see wage growth, how sustainable is this? parks when you look at what is happening here in japan, we have figure showing the fastest pace of wage increases in decades as well as a lot of headlines from
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top-notch companies. fast retailing raising salaries as much as 40%. nintendo hiking compensation by 10%. you take a close look at the underlying trends, they are not enough despite all the headlines and news. most of japan are smaller companies and still struggling. the wage increases aren't quite going to get to the level of a sustained 3% that the boj his signal it wants to see before making any shift in policy. while there are positive signs, i don't think we're quite there yet. >> it doesn't seem to be consistent either, these wage
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gains tend to be patchy depending on sector industry company and employment contract. >> yes. the spring wage talks were at a time when manufacturing was basically the japanese economy. it's a knowledge worker economy and that essentially makes for more merit-based pay rather than across the board wage increases. that's one of the reasons why we are seeing this phenomenon. >> our senior editor in tokyo. the market open in tokyo and seoul our next. this is bloom that -- this is ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is "bloomberg daybreak asia." we are counting down to asia's major market opens. investors trying to figure out how to digest u.s. eco-data. we have strong retail sales numbers that makes you think, are we going to see higher rates continue to come from the fed? at the same time, strong economic numbers. is the u.s. economy resilient, and what that really means for asia as we are headed towards more central-bank decisions over there, too. haidi: looking ahead to the bank of indonesia as well as central bank of the philippines, very divergent paths when it comes to their battle against inflation. watching the rba as well. another day of testimony from phil lowe. will we get further rate hikes giveon mounting political -- given mounting political pressures? shery: and some political pressures in japan. will we get out of negative
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rates with because will wait a -- kazuo ieda? the japanese yen pretty weak against the u.s. dollar although a little strength. we are watching jgb's very closely especially the long end. we have seen the bank of japan buying debt across the curve. we also had data earlier, a few minutes ago about how exports rose 3.5% which beat expectations, but it is easing from big gains in the previous month. taking a look at the 10 year yield, 3.81 is your level. investors watching where the fed goes from here with strong eco-data and treasury yields across the curve continuing to rise. looking at the kospi, we have
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losses in the previous session. the korean won was under a lot of pressure. it continues to be under pressure. we are seeing korean stocks gaining ground. haidi: let's take a look at what we are watching when it comes to australia, in the middle of earnings. we are watching a lot of these numbers. we are watching the bid from newmont as well as the banks coming through with their numbers. overall gains about half a percent. the biggest of performers, communications servicers. a lot of consumer discretionary as well as tech, interestingly, up over 1% apiece in terms of sectoral outperformance. when it comes to australia bond markers, we have not seen bond traders hearing enough from the first testimony to get encouragement. three year yield sliding, still scoped for a soft landing flag
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in the testimony. aussie dollar is under $.70 u.s. at the moment. the u.s. economy is showing remarkable resilience. retail sales rose for the most in two years last month. let's bring in strategist mark crandall. -- mark cranfield. is the data creating a lot of noise at this point at the risk of over interpretation by market participants? we saw what happened at the granular super core part of the inflation yesterday. >> not really. it is a gradual process. you can see people changing their minds by the way they are expressing their views with rate hikes. we started the year with investors reasonably confident the federal reserve would be ending rate hikes by the end of the first quarter. projecting four hikes in january and march. then we started extending further after the unemployment
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data to possibly the may meeting of the fed. and now in the cpi and retail sales numbers which are so strong, people are now starting to price for a rate hike in june, which probably means the peak for the terminal rate is somewhere around 5.5% now for fed funds, compared to no more than 5% of the beginning of the year. that is a significant change but it has been a gradual process. and you can see it reflected in the treasury curve, particularly with the two-year. that is gradually -- has gradually built itself through so the bond market helps support the u.s. dollar. interestingly, the equity market so far has shrunk off. you have companies like cisco who gave a very optimistic outlook seem to be able to cope with higher short-term yields and still very optimistic in the way they can get their business going for the rest of the year. if that's the case that there are many companies in the u.s.,
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if they are able to absorb these extra costs, and yet still make money off the back of a bland consumer, you have -- buoyant consumer, you have likely strain up -- equities staying up. at the moment, it's a scenario that seems not to bed. how long that will last is hard to say. shery: what about asian markets? can investors across asia struggle off a stronger u.s. dollar that might result from this repricing, if we also have the offset coming from china's reopen? >> the dollar is certainly a big question. it is a gradual move up in the dollar, if only incremental moves, which we have seen so far. it has not been too dramatic for asian currencies. if you use the chinese currency as a gauge for most of asia,
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still sitting below seven to the u.s. dollar. it has not been big fluctuations. if that remains the case, the rest of asian currencies will stay relatively firm in a small trading range in which case equities and be too worried. the minute anything changes with the chinese currency, that will have a negative effect across asia. it is very important what we see developing. the story of the china reopening is still fairly good. people still believe that china will continue to expand domestically as with exports as well, which should help stabilize currency. that will determine what happens in malaysia, thailand, singapore, and other parts of the region. where do we go with the chinese yuan? for now, it seems to be under control. if the dollar strengthens too much against g10 currencies, even china will be affected. shery: mark ran full there. -- mark cranfield they are peerless dive into the data leading to repricing and get
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more from our global politics and economics editor kathleen hays. the result of the recent eco-numbers. reporter: yes. consumer spending and retail sales was expected to rebound. it had been down two months in a row. that was a pretty big drop, 1%. now it has rebounded, not 1%, 2% but 3%. it was driven by auto sales and department sales. it's possible the shift in statistical seasonal adjustments lay the ground for it to be stronger than it should have been otherwise. people say it is still very strong no matter what. in fact, you take out auto sales and say maybe it was all cars? but no, still up 2.3%. another strong sign. you couple that with the fact that industrial production,
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which has been on the weak side, was flat last month. but if you look at manufacturing, that is the part we are watching to get a sense of where the economy is going. we can pmi's around the world, but manufacturing is up 1%. that is healthy. more specifically, homebuilders. the housing market. high mortgage rates. the homebuilder sentiment index that had gotten as low as 35 suddenly back up to around 45 or 47. excuse me, i don't have the number just right, but it got better. you put all together and you say, hey, the expectations of fed rate hikes, the terminal rate this year now, people are saying 5.4%. and think about it. just a couple weeks ago, people were still stubbornly holding onto 5%, 5.1%, they will stop and pivot and cut rates. this is just one more log on the
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fire of the economy is not slowing down that much, inflation is staying high, so the direction for the fed at this point continues to be more rate hikes and we have to see how many we need. haidi: when it comes to the ecb, interesting guidance from president lagarde. reporter: no doubt about it, march meeting. another 50 basis point rate hike. if there was any doubt with the january meeting, she left no doubt today. >> in view of the underlying inflation pressures, we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next meeting in march. we will then evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy. reporter: let's move onto the big central-bank meetings in asia today. the philippines central.
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will it be 25 or 50? they have been bold rate hikers in the past several years. 350 basis points of hikes since may. will it shake it up to 5.75%? there inflation rate just jumped to 8.7% year-over-year far from the 2% to 4% target so they will hike. the question is how much. bank of indonesia, there is a pause. there's an outright let's don't do anything rate hike because we have done enough. this was signaled by outgoing bank of indonesia and the interview with our own haslinda amin. they have their inflation rate down and they've managed to stabilize currency. especially with consumer spending slowing, they will potentially leave it unchanged. a lot going on or not going on
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but big central-bank moves in the works. haidi: our global economics and pulitzer editor, kathleen hays. vonnie: adani group will begin calls looking to reassure investors following the plunge in the price of its debt. banks are setting up meetings with bondholders of the group, energy and transmission sectors. institutions worldwide have had exposure to the groups $8 billion in dollar bonds. white house officials have reported they reached out to a key democratic ally to discuss the vacant role of fed vice chair. the wall street journal says chicago fed president austan goolsbee is under consideration. sherrod brown said he's spoken with white house officials about the vacancy, but would not discuss names circulated. a key china advisor to president biden is set to depart the white house national security council. laura rosenberger's special assistant to the president and
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nse senior director for china and taiwan. she's leaving her post next month. white house officials say her exit plans are not related to tensions over the alleged chinese spy balloon. world bank president david malpass is stepping down giving the administration more time to find a replacement. he will leave the job by the end of june. washington has called for reforms at the world bank to improve ability to respond to crises including climate change and pandemics. the congressional budget office has warned the u.s. treasury is at risk of a payment default as soon as july if lawmakers fail to raise the debt limit. it is now predicting a 2023 budget deficit of just more than $1.4 trillion. that is $426 billion worse than estimates from last may. this will see the political battle between democrats and republicans heat up as they clashed over how to approach fiscal policy. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg. haidi:haidi: we still have the exclusive interview with the ceo of asx, helen lofthouse. we talk about earnings and efforts to update its clearing technology. first, sources reveal the sensitive nature of the ship data asml was stolen by a former china-based worker. the latest is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: sources have told bloomberg that data stolen from asml includes details of systems critical to producing some of the world's most advanced ships. the dutch company is blaming a former china based employee. let's bring our asia tech executive editor, peter elstrom. this is not the first time asml
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has been targeted. reporter: asml is one of the critical companies in the chipmaking industry. it is one of a handful of companies that makes equipment that allows you to produce the most advanced chips. it has been the target of espionage in the past. a year ago, it disclosed a chinese company had allegedly been stealing intellectual property. the latest cases an employee based in china stole data from a repository where it keeps information on the high-end machines, lithography machines that help companies like intel and tsmc make advanced chips. haidi: how difficult is it to replicate this kind of technology? reporter: it is very very sophisticated technology asml
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makes. in the case they did disclose a year ago, they give details into how these people had attempted to steal particular information on the software they use to make trips. they are very advanced systems. many companies have tried to replicate what asml could do and have not been able to succeed or compete on the same level, so it is a piecemeal process. a critical step is gathering the kind of data on the machines so you could build something. china has been trying very hard to build the domestic trip industry. -- ship industry. shery: that's the thing. when you have things like this, people were asking, was china involved in this? reporter: of course, the backdrop is there are rising tensions between china and the u.s. and u.s. allies also.
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the biden administration announced last year they would restrict china's ability to get advanced chips and chipmaking ability because they were concerned they would use that technology in military applications and aia and other things that could threaten global security. the medalists in japan and south korea have been working against this. we still don't have all the details at this point. haidi: you can get that story on the top stories tonight by going to today's edition of daybreak. go on their eternal -- on the terminal and also.available on the mobile you can customize the studies as well so you get industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: taking a look across crypto assets and focusing on bitcoin. we saw bitcoin rising to the highest level since august. we are seeing bitcoin trading up by 2.6% at the moment, just under the $25,000 level. it is a gain for a second level as the decrease in risk aversion helping temper concerns about a widening crackdown by u.s. regulators. we saw a jump of over 8%, the biggest one-day gain in about a month. we also saw exuberance spreading to smaller digital tokens. ether is continuing to gain by over 2%, cardano and polkadot as well. we've seen in recent weeks, support when it comes to crypto, the sec enforcement actions, the
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warnings and speculations of additional regulatory measures has dampened that enthusiasm. we are hearing from mark nova gross, a big advocate, saying there's a good chance of crypto returning to $30,000 by the end of the month. a far cry from the 500 thousand dollars he once predicted, but still almost about 25% above car prices -- current prices. shery: as you said, there are still risks. coinbase shares falling the most in six months after rival cracking was forced to stop providing an investment service. it is a chief legal officer though telling us that. bloomberg should not be affected by that proposal to make it harder for crypto forums to be qualified custodians. >> coinbase, it is a qualified
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custodian today, a qualified custodian yesterday and will remain a qualified custodian tomorrow. the reason for that is in many ways, coinbase is operated in accordance with these rules. we think it is good for the industry and good for consumers and investors. >> against that backdrop, what do you make of the sec chair comments that investment in visors -- advisors cannot rely on platforms such as coinbase as qualified custodians? >> i think when it comes to coinbase, we have seen sec officials recognize coinbase can and does operate as a qualified custodian in a safe and reliable manner that investors and consumers have confidence in. as for others, we think standards are a good thing. investors and consumers have a right to understand their assets are safe in the standards are being charged with responsibility, the standards that have been vetted by
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appropriate overseers and regulators. in a lot of ways, this is about bringing the rest of the industry up to the standard and on balance, we think it is positive. >> what does that mean for international expansion was marc at the end of the day, cryptocurrencies broadly are in international concept. how does it translate? >> they are. one of the things that it has accounted for lead to the interest in crypto is the borderless nature. the fact remains each jurisdiction has its own rules and coinbase follows those rules to the strict letter of the law. the thing is though that for many in crypto, the options to operate are truly international. it means the united states needs to understand that it's standards are in some ways competing against those of the rest of the world. we want to make sure investors
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and consumers are protected and the standards are clear, but it is also important to strike the right balance between innovation on one hand and protection on the other. edit to the sec where credit is due. we like to see the same process applied across a whole range of issues that are of great importance to crypto. >> what do you make of the stance the sec has taken by enforcement? i'm curious about whether the sec has indicated to you whether you need to stop offering stake in? >> we have been public about coinbase services are not securities. of course it is important that we be transparent about the operation of our products. it is important that at all times for example customers understand their assets in staking remain their own assets.
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there's no transfer of title to coinbase or anybody else. the customer owns that asset. it's also important that customers understand they will get the returns there asset is worth titling two. the network itself that is being protected by the state assets assesses and assigns the reward. there is no mystery when it comes to coinbase and its staking services as to how it operates, what rewards are granted to the users. we think all of those reasons distinguish our products from others in the marketplace that may raise concerns. haidi: that is the coinbase chief legal officer speaking to us earlier. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. apple has postponed a plan introduction of its first mixed reality headset from april to june.
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there are hardware and software issues still need fixing they have pushed back the lunch several times. china evergrande is in talks with a subsidiary to repay almost $2 billion in deposits of a pledge security for loans for this follows the investigation into third-party loans that led to the removal of several top executives. under the proposal, evergrande will transfer services as part of the repayment. bloomberg has learned tesla will halt production or some production at its shanghai factory until the end of the month for part upgrades. this will allow the factory to roll out a new version of the model three sedan to compete the chinese market. . vamp comes as tesla faces a fall in demand and grooving rivals in china. shery: we see treasury yields extending in asia as we continue to replace where the fed will
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take rates from here. two year yield gaining for a fifth consecutive session. we are already above the 460 level. 10 year yield above 382. this is after strong u.s. retail sales numbers jumping by the most in almost two years. that pressured stocks in the morning but not enough. we came back because we had more positive data whether factory output or homebuilder sentiment. investors are thinking perhaps we will see a resilient economy. what do higher rates in the u.s. mean for asia is a key question as we head towards central-bank decisions in the philippines and in asia as well. -- and indonesia as well. this is bl the eagle has landed. that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game? yeah, it's what we do with xfinity 10g. it's like, you know, the best network imaginable.
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it comes to employment numbers out of australia just now for january. instead of the expected 20,000 jobs added to the economy, we see a contraction of 11,500, following a contraction of almost 15,000 jobs in the previous month of december as well. the unemployment rate has ticked up the three point 7% from 3.5%. raking it down, full-time employment change is a contraction of almost 44,000 jobs. part-time employment change a contraction of almost 32,000 jobs. i should say actually at edition of 32,000 jobs actually. the full-time employment is quite stuck, a contraction of almost 44,000 full-time rules, reversing gains in the previous session. take a look at the big reaction
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in the aussie dollar. this increases scrutiny on the rba's path forward and whether we will see further rate hikes and the lag factor has started to passe economy. leasing consumer sentiment taking a hit. we've also seen the impact of labor supply increased in australia, perhaps that is also feeding through to the participation rate. we seem faster population growth as well as the reopening of the international border so that job growth needs to average about 2.1% per year to stop that unemployment rate from rising further. that we need to be about 24,000 jobs a month now we are seeing a decline of 11,500 jobs in that change. shery: there seems to be consensus the us trillion economy will really pressure this year given the hiking rate path of the rba.
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the central bank governor philip lowe under pressure. he doubled down on fighting inflation in his first public appearance of the year and pledged to see out his term. our bloomberg opinion columnist sees hard times ahead for the rba chief. tons of challenges for philip lowe, even if he just stays on the job. >> central bankers are not in their jobs to win popularity contests, and it is just as well. no one running an important central bank is going to be acclaimed as a great individual in the past 12 months. they've had too much work to do. having said all that, there have been a number of self-inflicted wounds and there are a number of structural and messaging weaknesses in the rba's approach that do need to be rectified in recent events have underscored those challenges. haidi: phil lowe says perhaps
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he's talked too much. has he not talked enough? would help if we had more communication and guidance? the way we get steady communication from every other central bank. >> so the rba is right in the sense that it really -- releases way more information than it used to. phil lowe is out there way more than his predecessors. however my international benchmarks, australia is still a significant laggard in this regard. the idea that somehow if we do more speeches, there's no need for a press conference, which is something we've heard rba officials say, that does not cut it. doesn't matter whether you are the federal reserve or the ecb. bank indonesia does it. the south african reserve bank does it. what makes us earlier so special
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it can skip this? ben bernanke said in a brookings blog shortly after he left the fed that monetary policy is 98% talk, to percent action. this is how you shake expectations. private chats with bankers are fine. they happen all the time i don't. believe there's anything untoward about it, but why do that after skipping their traditional new year address to the national press club, releasing a surprisingly hawkish statement, and not having a press conference afterwards? it could all be changed tomorrow if governor low wishes. haidi: other than the focus on governor lowe, you point out pragmatic changes could be possible for the board. the people in the ratesetting board, you call them part-timers. >> the external members are part-timers. there is the governor, pretty
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governor. the top bureaucrat of the treasury has a day job. that is in the economic sphere, but not in the rba. there's a long tradition on both sides of the political aisle in australia of appointing part-timers to the rba board. they often get to keep their day jobs whether they are in mining, retailing, academia, scientific research. the idea is these folks represent a broad swathe of the community. fair enough. but do they have the expertise to stand up to rba staff? the board has to be accountable. how can you be accountable if there's no vote count? haidi: bloomberg opinion columnist dan moss there as we gear ourselves up from another day of testimony from the rba governor tomorrow. australia's primary exchange, the asx, reported a 71% profit.
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they suspended the replacement of the exchanges clearing and settlement system. let's discuss the results and outlook with helen lofthouse, the asx see you. when it comes to the outlook of technology, give us an idea of what we are at at the moment and what we can expect. >> certainly. thank you for having me today. today we given up to act -- we gave an update on the chess project. the current platform is performing well and is receiving ongoing investments. the chess replacement platform, in november we announced we were pausing and reassessing the solution. at that time, we talked about the significant item we then reported in these half-year results. that was in line with what we talked to the market about in november. we give and an update today on progress so far on the replacement solution design and gave the market can finance on when they can expect us to --
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when we are targeting for solution design. we also announced a partnership program for stakeholders working with us to complete the chess replacement project. what i would say is also we delivered a resilient underlying financial performance. even with all of what's going on in the market and the background of ongoing uncertainty, what i'm pleased to see is the fundamentals of the business are strong and customers are relying on us to use products and services to navigate through this environment. haidi: as we have talked about the broader economic uncertainty when it comes to the rate environment and how that projects further volatility, how does that inform your outlook when it comes to that level of activity? what do you foresee? >> we certainly start to see over the last few months some increases in people's use of the rate futures.
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the australian market relies heavily on products to help them manage risks and in this increasing rate, we see growth in the short-term interest rate products and now we are seeing more growth in the three year and treasury bond futures. certainly seeing the impacts of some of that activity come through in hedging flow in the futures products. shery: how does your ipo pipeline look from here? >> for the first half of the year, we have seen a relatively subdued ipo environment. the number of companies listing this year are significantly down . the same period last year, i think that was expected. it is an uncertain environment for ipos. we think it may continuing the second half of this year although i would note we do see significant demand and there is
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a significant pipeline of potential ipo activity and people waiting for the right market conditions. when conditions become more confidence inspiring for people, we are likely to see a good flow at that stage. haidi: shery: let me shery: ask about the business operating environment because of course wage inflation and a tight labor market has been the issue for many corporations across australia. what do you see in terms of trying to rain and expenses? >> that has impacted us as well. in the four-year result, one of the things we've seen is a component of wage inflation. we are seeing increased costs in the number of areas like licenses and insurance. we are certainly seeing the impact of those changes in our business expenses. haidi: what about the view when
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it comes to the regulatory front ? >> i think for regulators, there is a lot to think about. when i come back to asx specifically, we are talking about the chess program and a number of other insurance properties underway. i think we are aligned in terms of what we are looking for and want to make sure we continue to operate these markets and clearing settlement services in a robust and reliable way and the public have confidence as well. we are aligned with that and we are doing a number of items the regulators asked us to and we are keen to make sure customers have that confidence. haidi:haidi: when we get the new five-year number in june, any big surprises in store? >> i will have to wait until
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june to share that with you but i've been in the ceo role for about six months now and we've already undergone a significant reset. we've been busy and made a lot of changes in that time. a notable board renewal also well. i have -- we have fresh purpose and i'm looking forward to sharing that five-year strategy in june. shery: good to have you with us, asx managing director and ceo. let's go to vonnie quinn for the first word headlines. vonnie: thank you. asml accusing a former china based employee of stealing confidential chip data. the breach happen supposedly at a repository that included resources of the systems that produces world's most advanced chips. this is the second such breach linked to china in less than a year. the congressional budget office has warned the u.s. treasury is
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that risk of a payment default as soon as, july if lawmakers failed to raise the debt limit. it is predicting the 2023 budget deficit of just more than $1.4 trillion, 426 billion dollars worse than estimate from last may. the report will see the political battle between democrats and republicans heat up as they clash over how to approach u.s. fiscal policy. u.s. stock trades will soon be settled twice as quickly as the sec shortens the time needed to just one day. the move aims to address structural issues exposed by the mean stock mania of early 2021. sec chair gary gensler says that changes will make markets more resilient, orderly and efficient. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn this is bluebird. haidi: let's look at the aussie following after the jobs number. we've seen aussie traded around the 50 day moving average sideways and this could be the break factor with that
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unexpected decline in january jobs numbers. of course, this is one of the strongest performers in the g10 space. we are seeing some support. jobs numbers, the economy shedding jobs a second month. this adds to signs of potentially the australian labor market finally showing signs of cooling and vulnerability in response to that aggressive tightening cycle and nine consecutive rate hikes. the jobless rate hike climbing to 3.7% with 11,500 roles cut and the participation rate edging lower as well. the number of part-time jobs increasing so underemployment beginning to be a real trend for these numbers. more to come here on "bloomberg daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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how much of this is just healthy unwind? >> it is a difficult market to trade. it was the world's most crowded trade according to bank of america's latest survey, but also one that was spurred by headphones -- hedge funds. this is a hated market, let's not forget that. the index is up more than 50%, that was fast money. really driving the trade. the 13f filings really showed that. alibaba hedge funds own the majority of the stock. the most stock outstanding since 2015. really a popular trade among hedge funds. this is an unwind. there's a policy vacuum like one of the people we spoke to yesterday said, because we have no further catalyst to drive the market up. question is, what will it take to really bring in the longer
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term nonspeculative money into the market and whether we will have signs from beijing that more supportive policies are coming through. haidi: part of that is more forceful policies to revive domestic consumption. there are a lot of people that are skeptical this will work. >> exactly. that is the key debates right now. when china reopened, there was a fear that there would be a huge consumption story and it would be problematic for global inflation. why are we getting it now? it is the highest -- household savings in china is high, there's no safety net, the traumas of the past two years. when the majority of households savings -- not savings, assets and the property markets, and you see that fall over the past two years, you will not go out and spend. that is the key issue. xi jinping yesterday speech --
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called for more measures to drive up consumption. it will be tricky because consumption was already week before the pandemic. this is a long-term kind -- challenge for china. confidence has fallen to a record low among chinese consumers. haidi: our chief china markets correspondent. ahead of the markets in hong kong and mainland china, china is warning it will retaliate against u.s. violations of its sovereignty, potentially escalating a dispute over the alleged spy balloon. also, some airline stocks like china southern, nearly 70% of seats reopening. travel burn continues. passenger traffic for january up more than 62%. we are watching fourth-quarter
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term stays and new ways of traveling. >> we are expecting pretty steady growth. we are expecting a little more accelerated growth in short-term stays, but that is more of a recovery. we are seeing more people go to cities and more people cross-border spirit urban and cross-border was around 80% before the pandemic so it is a matter of the recovery of the old ways of traveling and a real sustainability of new ways including people staying longer and traveling more places. >> your cfo said yesterday on the call, this is growth mode now, not necessarily profit maximization. what does growth mode look like? >> there is something kind of interesting i learned in silicon valley. i think there's a simple way of thinking you are either in growth mode or profitability mode. what i learned since the pandemic is as we've gotten more
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profitable, we got more efficient. as we got more efficient, we got more focused and were able to grow faster. we will continue to do both but we are focused on three things this year. we want to affect the core service. we want people to love airbnb. that means living every detail about it. we basically did the storyboard for guests and hosts and we are listening to all the things we want to be better and systematically fixing them one data time. then we need to make sure there are hosts. they know somebody -- someone is a host because it is so mainstream and popular. along the way we are laying the foundation for us to extend beyond the core business. we are thinking pretty expensive with big ideas. we are perfecting the core and making hosting mainstream and thinking big ideas bound -- beyond the core business. the same thing is we can stay
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really lean. i hope that's what the lesson of airbnb is, you can do both. >> what are the big ideas beyond the core business? you made hard choices during the pandemic to pull back on some of those. >> i will share a couple small things, but i have to have a hook to get you to get me back on the show. i will hold something back. let me just say that twice a year around may and november, we do these releases, summer and winter. we have a big idea for may. i will hold that back so i can come back on the show. but we are thinking about investing more in experiences and i'm excited for that opportunity. longer-term stays we think is a continual opportunity. we also think there are great services for guests and hosts that we think they will really
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like and there might even be things they want to pay for. these are initial ideas but a lot of the exciting things i will have to come back on to tell you about. shery: the airbnb ceo brian chesky with emily chang. here's a check of the latest business flash headlines. deutsche bank cutting bonuses for staff who used messaging services for business communications. the cuts affect pay is still to be awarded for last year. they are among several lenders find over $2 billion by u.s. regulators over unauthorized communication channels. lutherans ahead to ground present -- hundreds of flights after workers accidentally drilled through fiber cables buried below a frankfurt suburb. they are ramping up operations at its main ace in frankfurt. the incident raises questions about how robust their computer systems are.
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bloomberg has learned credit suisse is exiting distressed debt and special situations trading. it is part of a broader exit from risky and capital-intensive businesses. the bank is selling a book of assets including $250 million of bond and loan positions related to distressed companies. final commitments are due this week. haidi: still to come, suntory ceo takeshi niinami joins us for an exclusive interview to discuss their business. ubs is recommending a digital economy as a key investment focus. . that is it for "bloomberg daybreak asia." markets coverage continues. ♪
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