tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg February 19, 2023 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
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shery: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak asia" coming to you live from new york, sydney and hong kong. haidi: counting down the market opens in tokyo and seoul. australia has just come online. the top stories this hour. tensions remain high between washington and beijing as secretary blinken exchanges blend messages. north korea fires more missiles as the u.s. and allies hold joint drills in a show of force. a big week for asian central banks with rate decisions do out of new zealand and south korea. annabelle: we have the open of the asx 200. we are focusing still on earnings because the reopening theme has been a key one of quarters past. that plays into what kind of demand we can expect from china. commodity companies in key focus today. bluescope actually slipping at the start of trade.
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we will speak with the ceo later this morning. that is an exclusive interview. in terms of the headlines in the first half, we saw profit dropping more than 60%. there's also an issue forecast that is weaker for the second half ahead. it does continue to keep dividends study for the buybacks. still this stock is slumping. earnings are one of the key focuses for the start of the week. we are keeping a watch on geopolitical factors as well because that along with what we've heard from fed officials about further rate hikes is something that has brought a bit more strength into the dollar. that as well as moves in treasury yields are something that's a negative. china still looking a little flat with futures ahead of the open. shery: take a look at how u.s.
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futures are coming online because we do have a holiday. the little pressure when it comes to the futures space after a pretty mixed session friday. the dow gained ground but it's interesting the relationship right now. what investors are thinking the economy is doing is remaining resilient. the same time being bullish on stocks when it means the fed tries even more. we saw that reflected on the treasury space with the curve reflecting a higher for longer narrative. a little pressure in yields but broadly talking the two year yield above 460 and 10 year above that 380 level. and of course, the strength of the dollar, almost erasing all the losses for 2023. we had downside pressure when it came to oil prices. in the asian session, upside of
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3/10 of 1%. perhaps not surprising even the geopolitical news including israel blaming iran over an oil tanker attack earlier this month, not to mention nuclear ambitions from the country are factoring in. haidi: we will stand geopolitics. developments over the weekend in mind. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken has warned his trainees counterpart against providing lethal aid to russia's continuing invasion of ukraine and also rebuked the suspected chinese spy balloon incident, while china called the u.s. response to the incident "hysterical."when it comes to what we heard from the u.s. side, i thought it was a pretty perhaps unusually blunt and fairly to the point statement attends of what was communicated.
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>> absolutely. the u.s. pulled no punches, i think it is fair to say. there was some secrecy surrounding this, some cloak and dagger, surrounding the meeting. both men were in munich for the annual security conference. what came out of course, it is at a point now where you just have to see where that leads from here. it certainly shows even when the u.s. and china meet now, that does not necessarily mean there is an easing of tensions. you might say it has stabilized the tension for now after what the u.s. clearly viewed as an outrageous for spying purchases
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-- purposes. and shery: the same thing, calling the u.s. action hysterical. >> when these two men, the u.s. and china, top implements meant for the first time after the bloom incident, i don't think we could have expected the two sides to get together and happy and nice. i think there was going to be confrontation. both sides needed to bring up their side of the story. i think it was good news that the gentlemen had the meeting in munich. it does open the way for antony blinken to make that trip. haidi: what did we hear when it comes to what the u.s. says they have information that beijing is
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considering providing assistance when it comes to russia's ongoing war in ukraine? >> what we know is the united states has long made it known that it would be strongly opposed to china providing assistance of that sort to russia for the the were in ukraine. that has been repeated over and over. we have not seen evidence of china providing arms or substantial aid to russia but obviously the u.s. and allies would be extremely upset if that happens and could affect the balance of the fighting. secretary blinken underlying how strong washington feels that is a redline for him. shery: given all these tensions between the u.s. and china, russia playing into the invasion, what do you make of north korea using this to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile? >> all i can say is that it was
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time everybody would notice at the munich conference we keep referring to, it was time. it is a meeting of one of the world's top security officials including the ones we mentioned. and among other things, a large u.s. congressional delegation. the timing seems speculative at this point, but the timing was clearly at a moment where it had maximum impact in the public sphere and the public eye. if you pull the camera back a little bit, you are talking a series of crises all centered around north korea, as we were discussing, the chinese balloon in president biden going to
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poland, leaving from washington about 24 hours from now, a trip aimed at railing or re-rallying support around helping ukraine reach the stated goal of expelling russia from territory. there is a lot at stake and tension around the interlinked crises and challenges. happening literally in the last few days. haidi: when it comes to the china approach, north korea is interesting. there had been early indications that perhaps there was a softening when it comes to sanctions. have we had any reaction? >> no official reaction yet but obviously china is influential when it comes to north korea.
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it is north korea's greatest economic ally. any efforts to resolve the issue will need to go to beijing -- go through beijing. i'm sure that will be part of the discussion that would have happened between secretary blinken and mr. yi. that will weigh on the state of the u.s. and china ties. shery: the energy crisis has changed the dynamics when it comes to iran and other countries. now we are seeing nuclear ambitions again coming to the front. >> we've been reporting that the iaea, the world's nuclear watchdog, has found a uranium much more enriched them iran -- dan iran has acknowledged in the
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past to a level that is close to nuclear weapons grade. where does that leave us? iran meanwhile has denied that and said we are still at the levels that is 60% enrichment, that we have confirmed before. that goes back to the entire question, of should the u.s. reengage from the iranian nuclear deal president trump famously pulled the u.s. out of. the biden administration came out to say they would seek to do that and that has petered out for a variety of reasons. this is the start of an unresolved situation with iran. if the calculations are in fact correct. shery: so many different fronts
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on their geopolitical situation. let's get to vonnie quinn with first word headlines. vonnie: microsoft has agreed to give key free access with cloud computing platform to analyze evidence of possible russian war crimes. there was a meeting security conference over the weekend. the biden security team said tech belongs in any conversation about security. the cyclone that devastated parts of new zealand last week is expected to soar into the billions of dollars. it may take time to get a clear picture because thousands of people remain without water, power and shelter. he says the recovery costs could be on par with the 2011 earthquakes around $8 billion u.s. south korea is preparing a domestic rocket development program following the implosion of the partnership with russia. sold last month revoked a
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contract with russia in favor of european operator. speaking to bloomberg, korea's vice science minister says his country cannot ignore the growing space industry. >> the space industry is growing at an explosive pace so from an industrial perspective, we can't ignore it. it's also important for national security is the competition for shared space is heating up among nations. vonnie: global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. arm vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg. haidi: still had, j.p. morgan's securities japan chief economist joins us to say what changes are most urgently needed for asia's second largest economy. next, the amp head of investment strategy talks about investment and growth, shane oliver. . joins us next this is bloomberg.
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issues on the supply side, the way the labor market functions, it is a long list of supply issues. you need to hire -- a higher stable inflation rate. shery: looking out the week ahead, economists expect the chinese banks will hold prime lending rates steady after the pboc changed a key rate this month. this comes after governor philip lowe says we are risking recession. the reserve bank of new zealand is poised to deliver a 10th street hike as the country battles with the hottest inflation in decades and economists expect the bank of korea to hold its key rate thursday, ending in 18 month tightening cycle. the g20 finance ministers and central bank governors beginning a three-day meeting with india later in the week and friday
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marking one year since russia's invasion of ukraine. haidi: our next guest sees outperformance when it comes to australian stocks in 2023. shane oliver, as the head of investment strategy and chief economist at amp. we were talking about the resumption of business travel to china and that is at the heart of your bullish case first ray liotta. so much of the low hanging fruit has already been picked though. do you still feel that enthusiastic given we've seen the domestic chinese rally take a breather? >> that's a good question. the australian shared market got up to levels i thought it would not get to until the end of the year and likewise with global markets, that has left them some wonderful normal. i have a positive view for the
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year as a whole but we did get a bit ahead of ourselves. that means we are probably in for a bit of volatility as some of the gains settled down. broadly speaking, the big picture view is still intact that china will see a decent reopening and rebound in the economy that will support commodity prices and that in turn will help the market outperform global markets yet again this year. haidi: you think the rba has already done enough to bring down inflation. we heard governor lowe talk about the risk of entrenched inflation, and that sentiment, the psychology of having to bring it down before that happens. is there a risk of over tightening not just for australia but for a policy mistake elsewhere?
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>> we have sent multiple rate hikes quite aggressive, and for people, it is the change that will have an impact last year with support to some degree of negative rate hikes offset by the reopening. that reopening bern in australia will start to fade. everyone has got out there and done their revenge spending and travel. we will start to see the impact of tightening and as a consequence, i think the reserve bank has done enough. obviously, the reserve bank has a slightly different view on the risks. we will almost certainly see another hike next month. another one in april, if not then in may. in the -- if the data we are getting from a straley a with retail sales next week, and
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mid-march, jobs figures on the soft side again, you don't see much of a rebound, then i think that would open the door for a pause from the rba. haidi: shery: what are you seeing in the shery: earnings season as compared to the latest earnings season here in the u.s. and what that could mean for investment opportunities going forward? >> in the u.s., they were on the soft side. the consensus going into the results was for a decline of 2% and that's pretty much where we ended up in the u.s. and outlook comments have been mixed as well. when you look at australia we have seen growth compared to a year ago but in the same quarter , much of the east coast of a straley was still in lockdown.
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therefore the comparisons to a year ago are quite easy. also, the outlook comments, particularly firm -- from consumer facing stocks, have been on the soft side suggesting there's been a lot of momentum and spending through the latter part of next year, particularly into january year. i think the earnings season says earnings growth is slowing down and it will be a harder slog and ultimately central banks will need to get off the parade in terms of interest rates. if they don't, the risk is earnings go out further and we end up with a far worse outcome. that is not the base case but it is a risk. shery: given what happening and central banks in the u.s. or any
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other, >> whether it's commercial or residential>>, as we adjust to interest hikes, likewise for investors, the impetus to take money away from bonds and put it into commercial property is not as right as in the pandemic. it is substantially weakened. as the higher bond yields fade through, it makes property devaluations going forward. finally, you have the rise of online spending, decline of shopping malls and more people working at home for a greater number of days than before the pandemic. i've been cautious about property stocks at present.
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at some point they will get oversold and the bad news will have been factored in. i think there's still more downside. shery: shane oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economy -- economist at amp. you can get around about all the stories you need to get your day going. terminal subscribers, go to dayb . you only get the news on industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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content creators. it will cost three dollars more through apple's ios. meta is testing the product first in australia and new zealand later this week. a qatari group has hired bank of america as one of the advisors for a bid to buy manchester united. it is being led by a royal family member, who was also a chairman of qatar islamic bank. in a statement, he says he wants to return the club to its former glory on and off the pitch. bloomberg has earlier reported opening qatari value is that around $6 billion. shery:shery: we continue to watch risk off sentiment as we hear from north korea that it has fired two shots from multiple rocket launchers. north korea saying it conducted artillery drills on monday. this of course follows the icbm launch already that was confirmed over the weekend and ariel drills between south korea, japan and the u.s. in a show of force. we continue to watch the fx space. we are seeing strength in the
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u.s. dollar already and not a lot of movement in the japanese yen. we've seen the discount fading away given north korea's provocations. we continue to watch geopolitical tensions as north korea fires more unidentified ballistic missiles. even as investors in indian stocks are moving beyond the adani groups concerns, we look at fresh red flags on the conglomerate in the esg markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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trying to calm investors spooked. annabelle joins us with the latest. it has been nearly a month since those bombshell allegations. where are we at? annabelle: quite a wild few weeks for the adani group. stock still north of $130 billion and there have been obvious efforts to quell investor -- things like promising to scrap that huge coal project. now the effort to bring down expenses. adani has also been trying to shift the narrative and that has been quieter on this front. essentially because of these allegations that came through from hindenburg research and serious ones around accounting fraud, stock market manipulation. this is what is entering repair mode. there is the campaign to portray
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itself as a responsible borrower. it has also hired the pr team as well. this one based in manhattan has a lot of experience working with these crisis mode organizations, the likes of wework for instance when they imploded in 2019. the focus now will be trying to regain investor trust. that is one of the big core ideas. there is also the legal side because we understand via the financial times the adani group has hired a u.s. law firm that specializes in working with companies that have been accused by u.s. short-sellers as well. haidi: adani may have a harder time and it comes to convincing esg investors who have been burned to return. annabelle: that's right. even if you do manage to get back the everyday investor, the esg is one of the more difficult components because they have
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really been waking up to perhaps what is a key risk, and that is the web of transactions that flow against these organizations. a key allegation in the hindenburg research report is no adani area was -- it has become a key example of this. norway's pension fund, they were recently forced to dump their entire holding of adani green energy. that is the renewable part of the empire. that is because there were concerns it could have helped finance some coal activities. as we saw and a public filing on february 10, adani was using stock from grain companies as collateral to the credit facility is using to help fund the carmichael coal project in queensland. and that project has been bessette with issues around the environment, the ramifications it would have really becoming a lightning rod for environmental destruction. so this is prompting a lot of
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investors to rethink whether companies that are esg and others reviewing this including msci. that is another one that says it will look at the esg indexes a lot more frequently. shery: with everything we have learned over the past few weeks, how do money managers feel about the group right now? annabelle: this is what is also interesting is that is starting to be seen as quite separate. from an indian perspective. because we have adani group continuing to selloff even though we have seen some of it stabilizing now. from a key proponent of the indian stock market, the sensex, it is coming back to an all-time high it reached in january. some investors are starting to say there is the adani issue and then the overall outlook for indian markets and they are fairly bullish on that. that is because if anything, as some international managers would say, what the adani selloff has done is highlight
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that this is an investment opportunity given the governance issues could perhaps only be localized to adani group and might not be systemic to the entire market. mark mobius is saying i am going to continue buying up the indian benchmark instead of shying away. haidi: annabelle with the latest on adani. it's get you to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: china's top diplomat says beijing and the european union should prepare for a meeting of their leaders. he urged his eu counterpart to help bring bilateral exchanges back to pre-epidemic levels as soon as possible. in a meeting on the supply lines, the officials also discussed ukraine, saying china is promoting talks for a political solution. senior diplomats say international atomic monitors in iran detected iridium enriched levels just below that needed for a nuclear weapon. it is the second time this month monitors have detected suspicious activity.
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they say it is discussing the findings with orion and will report to its board -- with iran and will report to its board of governors as soon as propria. the u.s. held drills a day after a north korean ballistic missile test. tokyo took part in a separate exercise. pyongyang issued new warnings to the u.s. after its intercontinental ballistic missile landed in waters within japan's exclusive economic zone on saturday. according to some reports, sri lanka's upcoming local elections are likely to be postponed due to a lack of funds. the action commission will seek a delay from the top court, citing difficulties around printing ballots and lack of fuel for shipping. earlier this month i cabinet spokesman said cash flow issues may affect the local elections scheduled for march 9. public support for japanese prime minister fumio kishida to has edged down after a former aide made discriminatory remarks
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towards the lgbtq committee. an opinion poll shows keisha -- fell to 26%. keisha has fired the aid and apologize for the remarks. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: the u.k. prime minister rishi sunak says allies need to finalize security pledges for ukraine by the nato summit in july. speaking to us at the munich security conference, he called on countries to equip ukraine with the means to win the war right now. >> it is clear that the security guarantees, the architecture that was in place for the war has failed ukraine. that is a statement of fact. ukraine had received assurances when he gave weapons up. russia has continually violated human rights treaties or arms-control treaties. what happened before has not worked. now our job is to look forward
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and say what is the right thing going forward. as i mentioned, jens stoltenberg has said ukraine will be a member of nato between now and then, what we need to work on our providing ukraine with the means to win the war right now and that means very specifically artillery, long-range weapons, armored vehicles. air defense, that is the most critical thing. we can also make sure we are training ukraine on nato standard equipment. that is what we are doing when it comes to aircraft with their pilots. i think what we do need to do is think about the future of how we protect ukraine security and we need to have that conversation with our allies and talk about the longer-term provision of supporting ukraine and that is a conversation i think we should start having because the summit is a good place to conclude that. >> so the assurances would come this year. there has been a lot of debate here about the ammunition, the risk they may not have enough ammunition. also the long-range missiles.
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there is concern one of the targets would be crimea. under your watch as prime minister, would you approve of long-range missiles that could hit crimea? >> nato is a defensive alliance. that is the first thing to recall. what is ukraine doing? ukraine is trying to defend itself. it is suffering unprovoked aggression. its sovereignty has been violated. its people are being killed. and it has every right to defend itself. that is what we should be doing. that is the support that we collectively in this room are providing. critically, there are things ukraine needs to gain that decisive advantage on the battlefield. that is why the provision of heavy tanks was so important. it is why air defense is absolutely critical. longer-range weapons also help. those are all the things that will allow ukraine to defend itself and repel russian aggression. and yes, to have a counter
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offensive that moves rush outside of its own country. that is entirely reasonable and we should be wanting to that succeed. shery: rishi sunak speaking there. south korea is preparing a domestic rocket program to carve out a larger slice of the global space economy. the science minister spoke to bloomberg about those plans in an exclusive interview. >> the space industry is growing at an explosive pace. from an industrial perspective, we cannot ignore it. it is also important for national security as the competition for shared space is heating up among nations. shery: sam, given south korea's competitiveness in the global tech industry, can we assume that that will also translate to the space industry? sam: very likely.
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you are right, korea has become a major player in the global technology world. it has a lot of capabilities that it would be able to market when the space drive among nations heats up further. it is a country woven deeply with the global economy. which means it has to survive and thrive based on trade. in the future trade may be centered around a lot of the space programs being developed by countries. rocket parts, satellites, communications equipment are the kind of material korea could be selling to other countries. it is trying to bolster its own space program to be able to understand what countries need. also from the perspective of national security. korea is kinda's anguish -- is kind of sandwiched between japan
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and china. it wants to be able to fire rockets and put satellites on its own. so we want to hear more from the vice minister. haidi: the country is playing catch-up. it revoked a deal with russia, and there have been greater investments around the region including china. are they considering collaborations, maybe not with china, but with anyone else? sam: the vice science minister i spoke to did say that the u.s. is going to be the foremost partner in space collaboration. while china is certainly not a country korea is considering more collaboration with, that is because korea is a major ally for the u.s.. a lot of the technology korea has been able to develop is based on what has been able to secure from the u.s. they are military partners, they
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are economic partners. we understand the u.s. is in a space race with china. these two countries are the two countries with the most funding for space programs to put example, humans back on the moon and send people to mars. so korea for the time being is certainly siding with the u.s. haidi: bloomberg korea economy sam kim ther. the former boj deputy governor is warning the central bank's incoming leadership against a hasty exit from stimulus. jp morgan joins us for some analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪
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and we know 80% of couples sleep too hot or too cold. go to getrefunds.com to get started. introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number. haidi: it is time for japan ahead on daybreak asia. keep an eye on defense-related shares. north korea of course firing suspected blissful -- ballistic missile on monday, the second
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launch in three days. also watching nintendo shares. saudi arabia's public invest in fund becoming the largest outside shareholder nintendo. shery: bank of japan watchers quickly reassessing the path of monetary policy under the nominee for governor. 70 percent of respondents to a bloomberg survey say the central bank will take a tightening step by july. japan's latest inflation data is also due this week. let's get more with ayako fujita , chief economist at j.p. morgan securities japan. good to have you with us. of course we are hearing from a parliamentary hearing this week. what will you be watching out for? ayako: his biggest task for the
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upcoming term is monetary policy normalization. the boj is currently facing significant pressure from the market for higher rates with an expectation of higher rates. in the hearing whether we will try to increase his dovish stance to a hawkish signal -- or i should say commit to upcoming policy normalization. shery: the former deputy governor was saying haps if we veer too quickly away from ycc, japan risks inflation again. what do you think? ayako: we expect ycc will be not effective. with the ycc demand in place, the boj has been facing quite significant difficulty communicating with the market.
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[indiscernible] at the same time the boj needs to pay attention. we expect the boj will take a little bit of time to assess negative parts. haidi: there were so many negative parts when it comes to conflicting economic and policy conditions. how difficult and narrow is the path ahead to policy adjustment and how big do you think the risk is of a policy error? ayako: ok. ycc adjustment is a difficult challenge not just for the boj but all central banks. communication is also an issue. also there is expectation among the higher rates.
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[indiscernible] ycc is quite challenging. to remove it is the most difficult part. that is why this nomination includes the deputy governor who is specialized for the financial system. haidi: how much influence does market pressure play here? ayako: in terms of ycc, removal market pressure is kind of a big deal for the boj. the boj has not paid much attention to timing of negative
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interest rates. but for ycc, market functionality is becoming a big problem. inflation is critical, but we think inflation has already justified the change in monetary policy setting. it will not be easy to maintain for long. shery: of course we always talk about economic activity in japan perhaps not being aided by the fact that a lot of women are out of the workforce. a lot of people pointed to criticism of boj nominees because they lacked gender equality or diversity. what do you make of the latest nomination, and what more needs to be done in japan to achieve this sort of gender equality that perhaps womenomics was pursuing in the past two years? ayako: this is unfortunate for the boj to not have female leadership this time.
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at the same time it is not just the governor. policy members since 1998, changing boj law, we have only had one female board member, and no more than one. we don't have many candidates to become the boj governor and deputy governor. to get more females to be included in the policy-setting space, japan needs to provide or opportunity for women to build up their experience or build up their career, not just boj but also the business community as well. haidi: it sort of feeds into a lot of the broader criticism of corporate japan, japan as a whole in terms of society, the lack of diversity and embracing
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of representation. what do you think japan needs right now in terms of the biggest change that would make the most impact? ayako: the most -- to work as irregular workers. they could not achieve a decent experience. actually, no, could not get a decent experience to advance career because of a herd -- because of a heavy burden of housework, or the mindset that women need to do some kind of supporting jobs. it is not just the top position but also manager levels. japan needs to provide more opportunity for women to actually continue their career, even if they have kids and housework as well. haidi: ayako fujita, chief
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shery: here's a quick check of the latest business headlines. the world's biggest dealmaker is seeking closer ties with australian iron ore miner according to a press release following a meeting between the company's friday. baowu's chairman says they are looking to benefit from trade relations between china and australia. a malaysian minister suggested rare earths could keep units in the country so long as ways is shipped out. the australian company recently had its operating license renewed but failed to get approval for unit which malaysian officials say generates radioactive waste. in a tweet, the science minister signaled the unit could continue if the waste is taken away. sm entertainment's co-ceo says he will step down after a shareholder meeting in march. he says he takes responsibility for the current situation that has pitted sm's management
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against the company founder, who was aligned with rival hybe in a hostile takeover bid. these are the stocks we will be watching when trade opens shortly. we are watching for moves in sm entertainment, given the story i just mentioned. shares of asian defense-related companies as well, given north korea tensions. also asian energy stocks in focus following oil's slide. the market opens in seoul and tokyo our next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: this is daybreak asia and we are counting down to asia's major market opens. for the direction on where global markets will go given the u.s. will be closed on monday for holidays, of course we have plenty of rate decisions in asia as well include in the b.o.k. and rbnz, but also tons of geopolitical tensions to watch. haidi: yes. talk about that. we had the blinken meetings, terse words being exchanged about that allegedly spy balloon incident, but also potential assistance to russia on beijing's behalf being warned against by antony blinken. of course also pyongyang. let's see how all this is setting up for the market open. annabelle: it has been a very busy start to the trading week in asia. we have the open of japan and korea. no trading due to the public holiday, but at the start of the day the focus was on those geopolitical tensions coming through.
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we do understand that north korea has fired perhaps three missiles over the course of the morning. this, in response to drills that were carried out over the weekend. that is really framing the start of the trading week, geopolitical tensions and focus, adding to the more hawkish commentary from fed officials at the end of last week. unsurprising we are looking slightly risk off, watching that dollar strength coming through. that will also be saying on equities. this is the outlook, futures as well for cash treasuries. as i said, we did have these drills being carried out over the weekend between the u.s., south korea and japan. a real show of force that came through on sunday after pyongyang conducted its own icbm test over the weekend as well. this tit-for-tat moves simmering around the region. for the start of trading today, the cost mixed -- the kospi slightly weaker. we are still seeing a little bit
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of strength coming into the tech stocks. also watching what is happening with the korean won, currently fairly flat as we get into the day. let's change on, because earnings is in focus. sm entertainment dropping at the start of the day. we will be reporting later in the session. australia, bluescope steel, that stock down more than 10% at the start of the day's trading. we have an exclusive interview with its ceo later today, but the outlook for earnings this week is whether that sustained reopening momentum can be sustained. partly also being driven by what demand we can expect from china. we do see oil this morning really caught between whether we are going to see more demand coming through from that economy versus what we do here from the fed. and all of this concern of the recessionary backdrop continue to build. haidi: let's get more on the markets. want to bring in garfield reynolds. certainly a breather being taken
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when it comes to the reopening bets. garfield: yeah, that really goes along with a general apprehensive this that has started to seep through. the china reopening play was a major part of that. china's gloom and doom for most of last year as far as markets were concerned, that was a real burden for risk assets. no where to find any good news. now, that had been seen as good news. again, that is turning sour at the same time some of the concerns are coming into play more about fed rates going up. the blinken blowup over the weekend was a real shock to everybody to remind them that the path towards a kinder u.s. china relationship is a very difficult one indeed. so, similar to some of the other
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hopes for a better 2023, that's been given a shock, in this case, by the balloon and china's response, and then the u.s.'s response to that. concerns about russia. the whole gamut of reasons why u.s. and china have to work against each other. that has reminded people, well, if i put money into china that could be at risk both because of the potential impact of those relationships on where china's economy and assets ago. also, worst case scenario, if there are some tensions that have china either specifically cracking down on foreigners or the u.s. saying, as we have before, we are not happy about people putting money into chinese assets. you are making those moves to make it harder, for example, for chinese companies to list shares, or share-like vehicles in the u.s.
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so, all of that is acting as a correction to some of that optimism on china reopening. shery: the u.s. is having a long weekend with a holiday on monday. where will the trading momentum come from? garfield: well, the trading momentum, there was a little bit of a kind of risk off feel about the end of last week. that has definitely carried over, as i mentioned. the china u.s. confrontation did not help. the news about iran, the news about north korea and the missile test. that is why we have a very cautious looking start of the week. we have the dollar strictly -- slightly stronger. we are also looking forward this week to a couple central-bank decisions in asia, new zealand and south korea. those will have an impact. and building towards one of the big risks for asia on the table is what does the boj do once
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ueda takes over from kuroda at the head of the bank of japan. and at the end of the week we get him appearing in front of parliament, ueda, talks about what his decision-making process is going to be. so there are a lot of reasons for caution going forward, especially with, hanging over everything, the potential that the fed could sound more hawkish this week than it even did the last couple of weeks. shery: bloomberg's mliv contributor garfield reynolds. let's delve into the latest geopolitical tensions. secretary antony blinken warning his chinese counterpart against providing lethal aid to russia's invasion of ukraine. blinken also rebuking him over the suspected chinese spy balloon. huang called the u.s. response to the incident hysterical. for more, where are we going in
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the u.s. china relationship with so much tension in the air? john: garfield put it really well. this is not going to be an easy ride. tensions remain. one meeting is not going to solve that. really the outcome of that meeting was not that surprising. the top diplomats for their countries were not going to go into a room in munich and come out hugging and saying great things about one another. each of those gentlemen went into that meeting with a mission to state their side. after the chinese balloon is that it, -- balloon incident was shot down by the u.s. tony blinken had to come out and be very frank about the u.s. felt about that. the chinese response had to defend china's prestige in response. that outcome, it was a good thing the two gentlemen had the
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meeting now and we look forward to what is next. haidi: what is next could also be more friction when it comes to beijing's potential assistance to russia. that was also raised in this meeting? john: it was. secretary blinken did raise that. obviously has been a long-running concern of the u.s. that china would provide weapons and other substantial assistance to russia's war effort. the other thing that must be noted is we expect he will make a trip to moscow and meet with the russian leadership. right before that meeting, they did seem to be a chance for secretary blinken to underline how opposed the u.s. would be to china providing any substantial aid to russia. shery: of course we are seeing geopolitical tensions with north korean saber rattling, icbm launchers, rocket launches this morning as well.
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what do we know? sangmi: that's right. for a few weeks it seemed like this year would be quieter compared to last year when kim jong-un fired more than 70 ballistic missiles. it seems like it will be a continuation of that for some time. the icbm flew 999 kilometers, and reached an altitude of 5700 kilometers. that is a very powerful icbm, and weapons experts tell me it can carry a potential nuclear warhead to the american soil. this is followed by new launchers this morning. we are hearing from the south korean military that north korea fired two short range ballistic missiles at 7:00 a.m. here, followed by a combined air drill between south korea and the u.s. haidi: what is behind this timing right now?
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sangmi: what happened was soon after the icbm launch, the u.s. and south korea conducted a combined air drill, deploying strategic bombers and fighter jets in the korean airspace. this has angered kim jong-un. it has always angered kim jong-un's regime, and they have been denouncing these combined military drills. but south korea and the u.s. are actually planning a tabletop exercise in washington later this month that they will plan to look at the responses to north korea's nuclear attacks even. haidi: sangmi cha with the latest with john liu on all the geopolitical tensions the last few days. let's look at how this is playing into the market movers. you are looking at asian defense
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stocks. annabelle: that's right. in light of what you are discussing there, all of these geopolitical tensions we are monitoring across the morning. we are seeing defense stocks gaining around the region. we are 10 minutes into the session now for japan and korea. that is despite the broader asia-pacific index holding study. it seems like we are a little bit not only in wait and see mode but muted given the u.s. is shut for a public holiday. not a huge lead in to the session today. another sector we are focusing on is what is happening in the energy space this morning given we saw oil capping is longest string of deadly losses this year. oil traders are really stuck between that concern around rising inventories. you can add to that these hawkish measures among from fed officials. even though we have prospect for demand recovering in china but at the start of the trading today stocks are moving lower even as brent crude lose fractionally higher.
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another one we are focusing on our machinery stocks in asia. these are mostly higher today. this is down to some guidance that came out in the u.s. essentially they are optimistic about the demand for attractors, larger machinery items. that is because they are seeing strong crops, good weather for that. in terms of what they are seeing in the share price reaction, deere jumped the most in two years. this favors larger scenery. ---- larger machinery. shery: let's now get to vonnie quinn. vonnie: china's top diplomat wang yi says beijing and the european union should prepare for a meeting of their leaders to help bring bilateral changes to pre-pandemic levels. in a meeting, the two officials also discussed ukraine, with wang saying china is promoting
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talks for a political solution. microsoft agreed to give kyiv free access to its cloud computing platform to analyze possible russian war crimes. microsoft, apple, meta, alphabet and amazon all had a meeting over the weekend. the biden administration says tech belongs in any conversation about security. senior diplomats say international atomic monitors in iran detected a radium enriched levels just below that needed for a nuclear weapon, the second time this month they say they have detected suspicious activity. they are discussing the findings with iran and will report to its board of governors as appropriate. the new zealand cyclone damage is expected to soar into the billions. the finance minister said it may take time to get a clear picture, because thousands of people remain without water, power, and shelter. he says the recovery costs could be on par with the 2011
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christchurch earthquakes, around $8 million u.s. -- $8 billion u.s. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: the international food policy research institute examines the continued disruption of crop exports from ukraine as we get to the one-year year mark of this war. first, singapore airlines and big tech names reporting earnings later this week. we take a look at what to expect given china's reopening. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: let's bring in our next guest who is talking about the rationalization of the global tech investing market. and with that of course he talking about ventures as well as private equity. let's bring in the ceo and cio at arena investors. feels like the end of the investing world every time we talk to you. and you are primed to benefit. you talk about these economic cataclysms playing out in real time. is this a sense of a return to earth over the last food years? >> i would say so. by the way, thank you for having me. we have had a 14 year back in all since 2008, so there are a
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lot of chickens coming home to roost. one of them happens to be in the middle market corporate space where the falling to earth of tech is one of many areas within the private equity and venture space that will be rationalized. haidi: what opportunities do you see in asia-pacific in particular? dan: where that is concerned we are quite interested in some situations here in asia where they were very large tech companies that were private well into their eight to 10th rounds of equity financing who sacrificed profitability for growth and are now trying to turn the boats around. with the ipo markets potentially closed for them and a down round in their future, they are looking at special situation credit opportunities to bridge themselves towards profitability. haidi: when you look at a situation like adani i am really keen to get your observations on what has played out. is that is special situation? does that is situation where it makes you rethink the opportunities within that type of emerging-market complex? dan: sure. i think it raises the issue of
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the degree to which asia-pacific credit and large-scale finance can be subject to the rules we apply in the u.s. and europe. so when you look at the degree to which the adani situation has wrapped up with the government, and you think about how creditors actually exercise their rights, i think you see a lot more risk than people usually give them credit for. shery: do you see any other concerns across asia? of course we have seen concerns about the multilayered networks of stock holdings between these large conglomerates, say, in south korea as well. dan: sure, i think that is a real issue. i am sure you followed the situation with legoland there. there is a very small number of very material players, and that situation highlighted the idea of which capital comes from a small group of folks, but the degree to which it is highly dependent on a lot of asset mismatched funding. in that case there are a number of lenders in korea that had
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very short-term obligations. so when those things could not be rolled over, you had a real problem arise very quickly. haidi: you say you are patiently monitoring the the critique of corporate's and south korea. explain that to us. dan: well, that situation has made people remember that things don't always go up. so we have been involved in a variety of what i would call special situation financings with small and midsize corporates in korea as well as looking at how that situation will affect real estate and property market as well. there is a lot of room on the way down. shery: is the real estate sector in many of these economies uninvestable now given the trajectory in many of these economies? dan: well, it is a good question. there is a price for everything. i would say people are reevaluating the cap rates necessary to make these projects work. they are looking at the degree to which material and labor costs are increasing, given the
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greater levels of inflation versus what we have seen in the past 14, 15 years. it is definitely not easy but i think you want to be running toward that looking for opportunities and thinking about how to take advantage of this rationalization process. haidi: is it back to the global financial crisis days, and you take a look at mortgage backed securities, particularly when the rate environment is still so volatile going forward? dan: i think there are elements of that. the reality is in the case of the 2008 crisis we had a lot of tools in the toolkit to deal with it. they really emptied them out when qe2 happened in 2018 and that has been exacerbated since 2020. now you have arguably a lot less ability to deal with a very sudden spike in difficulties. i got my start in asia-pacific
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investing in the fall of 1998, when one of those spikes happened. is it possible? yes. are there a lot of ways people are much more inclined to push things off and make into more of a, say, as an example, longer tail japan-style situation where you have to get the bubble to come down over a couple decades. haidi: always great to chat with you. dan zwirn. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to get your day going at dayb on your terminal and the mobile. you can always customize those settings so you can just get the news that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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broadening of u.s. price pressures shows monetary tightening has had a limited impact. he told bloomberg anchor david westin it raises the danger of policymakers having to do more than previously envisioned. larry: the case for moving slowly is that when you move slowly you preserve the option not to do the last move. once you are sure a move is necessary, i do not think there is any great advantage to delaying that move. so, that's why i think there are more possibilities open at this point. but i think the risk is that we are going to hit the brakes very hard, and then when we hit the brakes very hard, that's going to kick in at the same timat th -- time that some of those
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negative cyclical dynamics about rising savings and so forth are kicking in. and that could produce the dangerous drop off. so, it's a very, very delicate situation that the fed is trying to manage here. shery: larry summers speaking to david westin on wall street week. here's a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. a malaysian minister suggested the rare earths could keep -- the australian company recently had its operating license renewed but failed to get approval for a unit which malaysian officials say generates radioactive waste. in a tweet, the science minister signaled the unit could continue if the waste is taken away. the world's biggest dealmaker is
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seeking -- biggest steelmaker is seeking a deal following a meeting between the two companies friday. baowu's chairman said they are looking to benefit of repaired trailer relations between -- the effort is being led by royal family member who is also the chairman of a qatar bank . he said he wants to return the club to its former glory. the opening bid would value manu at $6 billion. haidi: let's take a look at what we are seeing when it comes to the start of trading in futures in europe. we are seeing some green. up by about .1%.
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we are seeing falling in the previous session, risk aversion intensifying into the end of the london session. msci europe off. dax futures modestly higher about .1% at the moment. euro-dollar trading at just 106. still to come, we're approaching one year since russia's invasion of ukraine. we will take a look at the ongoing impact when it comes to global food security. this is bloomberg. ♪ the eagle has landed. that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game? yeah, it's what we do with xfinity 10g. it's like, you know, the best network imaginable.
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we are 30 minutes into the session for japan and korea. the new round in asia is looking fairly steady, slightly risk off. investors are still trying to digest that entry that came through the end of next week. then you can add to that these political tensions arising from ukraine and china. in terms of what we are watching this morning, what bond yields are like, fairly steady. we are seeing strength back into the dollar off that asian currency looking a little bit weaker. mark is mostly lower today. new zealand off by .7%. i mentioned geopolitical tensions and those are really front and center today in today's trading. we are seeing defense stocks move higher today.
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that is after was how north korea wanting more missiles today. let's look at what else is in focus. that is earnings. they had learned that was essentially half the results below analyst estimates. the prospect of rising costs also playing into earnings here. bluescope still another that had forecast here. we understood on friday after the close that the ceo of the stepping down.
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>> one that we are watching very closely, hsbc with its numbers out on tuesday. what are the expectations? >> they are expected to face scrutiny because of the uncertainty and economic outlook. i think more importantly, we will need to keep our eye on different payments. anything about the position in asia will be in focus. they have been facing pressure from the largest shareholders. >> we have been hearing from big chinese tech as well. >> baidu and alibaba will report earnings this week.
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i think one interesting thing is chet gpt. they are planning on rolling out services in march. alibaba is conducting internal testing. it is too early to say whether or not they can generate any revenue for this community. it would be very interesting if this company could see if this would be a source of income or revenue in the future. >> what are we watching there? the china reopening story? >> they are expected to end five consecutive half-year losses. international travel for chinese
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visitors has seen a slow start at the beginning because of hurdles. i think it may take a few quarters before we see a full reopening in asia and how they can benefit company earnings. >> a full round up other companies you need to watch. he is our breaking news editor. let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. >> north korea has fired more than expected ballistic missiles. it comes less than two days after pyongyang lost a long range -- launched a long-range missile aimed at hitting the u.s. mainland. south korea is preparing a domestic rock -- rock impairment program.
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speaking exclusively to bloomberg, the korean science minister says his country can't ignore the growing space industry. >> the space industry is growing at an explosive pace. from an industrial perspective, we can't ignore it. it is important for national security, the competition for its shelter space that is heating up among nations. >> according to some reports, sri lanka's upcoming local elections are likely to be postponed due to a lack of funds. the election commission will seek a delay from the top course, setting difficulties around printing ballots. earlier this month, the cabinet spokesman said cash flow issues may affect the local elections scheduled for march 9. public support for japanese prime minister -- after a former aide made discriminatory remarks toward
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the lgbtq community. the cabinet approval rating fell but one percentage point from the previous months or 26%. they inspired it and apologized for the remarks. the number of people passing through hong kong jumped in january thanks to the chinese border reopening. traffic to and from southeast asia report of the most significant increases. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> we are seeing emerging signs that investors in indian stocks are moving beyond the -- group's concerns. overseas funds are trickling back into the equity market. when we talk about indian stocks
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-- talked about indian stocks before, we found they were not cheap as compared to other parts of asia such as chinese stocks. what are we seeing now? why the sudden bullishness? >> everyone seems to have gone to an extended lease in the stock market. the sense is that earnings growth for one of the fastest growing economies in the world is going to hold up and valuations while they are expensive relative to other markets. it is also expensive. they don't think that is as much of an issue at this moment.
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that bullishness on earnings is what is driving the optimism at this point. >> not everyone is bullish. the book -- the fallout will be a broader sentiment drug? >> yes. absolutely. you did see that impact. they carry eight of the 10 stocks when the report was published. i was in mumbai last week in. the optimism is palpable from domestic fund managers. most of these people did not even hold the names because i did not make it through their valuation screen or the public float screens.
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this is a point for india to take note and show it can look into governance issues in the country and some of the biggest listed firms. if india shows it is taking action which we have been seeing the exchanges take action to a certain extent, they are investigating, the regulators are investigating the situation, this may just be something seen as a wrinkle. >> is at the consumption story? the demographic story that investors like in india? are there any particular sectors they are more bullish about? >> it is all of that. it is anything that is a bet on domestic demand.
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when i was speaking to investors, they like infrastructure. the governor has been blessed in capex spending. banking as well as the whole growth and consumption and the private and government spent. health care seems to be one beneficiary in terms of sectors. >> coming up next, we will hear from a senior research fellow i with the international food policy research -- how russia's invasion of ukraine has global food markets sent into disarray. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the $250 billion global fertilizer industry has risen from relative obscurity to strategic and burns as governments rush to secure supplies of this commodity is essential to food -- that is essential to food security. china is securing their supplies and that has turned crucial for well government.
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it wasn't really about oil and gas but also fertilizer as part of securing better global food supplies. >> this is about the reliance that the broad has on just a few nations to produce these commercial fertilizers. he has really alerted -- this has really alerted the u.s. and its allies to this dependency. >> let's bring in the senior research fellow at the international food policy
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research institute. good to have you with us. we know fertilizer prices have fallen at least from their peaks. how high are they still? what are they made for global food supplies? >> they have fallen a lot since the peak back in may. last spring when northern producers were out of line fertilizers. they were facing very high prices. very expensive. that is true across all three major types of fertilizer. russia and belarus are very important supplies to the rest of the world.
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not only have we had high prices caused by things like higher natural gas prices but also, export restrictions and sanctions have affected the trade in those products. >> we are about when you're in. we saw those supply-chain disruptions, whether it is fertilizer or foods, greens in particular. what are you seeing now? how much of that has been resolved? >> last year, it was remarkable how will markets actually functioned. we had very high price spikes. the war sent prices skyward. for the first couple of months they were very high. the markets were stopped -- the markets responded pretty well.
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things like the black sea great initiative helps that. prices came down to the point they were back to preinvasion levels. they were much higher than they were two or three years ago. we still have fairly tight situations for global carry out stocks. there will be continued volatility. probably the most significant factor is ukraine itself, producing a lot less than what we have seen over the last couple of years. farmers are switching out of crops like wheat and planning a lot less. >> the bathroom when it comes to
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actually bringing down headline inflation is not overly significant. on a micro level for households, it is also lessening. >> commodity prices are high but what matters to households is what they're playing -- paying in stores. this is all due to the post farm gauge. this adds to the inward value. things like wage rates, transportation costs, all of those factor in. this time around, we have a very strong dollar.
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countries are paying in their local currencies and that currency is depreciated, they are paying a lot more. >> debt rehabilitation talks have kicked off at a good starting point. with this and it was a level of food security going forward if you don't see fundamentals improving? >> there is no question. they have come through two years of covid, they spent a lot of money and debts have increased. this last year, we are over -- we have over half the year where they were facing food products.
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we will see some respond in terms of production and we will see him for the rebuild as prices come down during the end of the year but because we are going in with tight stocks already and because ukraine will not be the major exporter like it has been in the past, it means we are on a very thin edge. >> one about protectionism? we have seen is disses of -- instances of countries trying to limit the damage by restricting exports. how much of that are you still seeing? how much of that is affecting global food prices? >> we saw a lot of countries put on export restrictions.
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it is all in terms of palm oil. they had to been on for about three weeks. that set prices extremely high. prices have come down since. it was one of their bigger years in terms of exports. these are all issues that when prices get really high, unfortunately, countries often take very myopic policies that cause food insecurity for the rest of the world. that tends to have a snowballing effect where as we saw back in
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2007 or 2008, a lot of countries ended up putting bans on exports of wheat and rice. we saw the crisis last longer than they would have normally. >> really good to have you with us. senior research fellow of the international food policy research institute. coming up, china -- china reopening bets take a breather as risk appetite drops. this is bloomberg. ♪
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with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first. >> the china reopening with a reality check went on investor risk appetites. sophia joins us for more. we see this kind of tepid breather. i am wondering whether or not we will get that catalyst for the next leg up higher. >> exactly. the hang seng china enterprises index fell into correction last week. we have not seen back to back games for that index in 15 trading days. that is the longest since october. it is this the correction i should say but we are getting a slew of earnings this week.
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what will drive the next leg higher is the eem be -- we need to see that earnings growth feed into china inc. the story has been a play the economy as well. it is very much a wait and see game. >> a 20 plus percent jump in stocks by years end. what will you be watching away on holidays on monday? >> we don't get that follow-through on trading. there was a lot to unpack. a big earnings season coming up as well. also, any indication of a recovery on shore, we do get -- we will only get the real data in march.
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our companies are turning more positive, our ceos and outlets, are they telling the market picked up in consumption. look at the bond market. that is the story in play. foreign investors are pulling out of the entre market again. -- onshore market again. 24 investors as the markets coverage continues. this is bloomberg. ♪ ty sis vital to your mental, emotional, and physical health. and we know 80% of couples sleep too hot or too cold. introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms,
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