manus: good morning, it is "daybreak: europe," i am manus cranny in dubai. turning up the heat -- a meeting between the top chinese and u.s. diplomats backfires as they spar over balloons, russia, north korea and taiwan. temperatures rising -- pyongyang conducts more missile tests while inspectors in marin detect a rainy levels just below that needed -- detect uranium levels just below that needed for nuclear weapon. stocks kick off in the green, the dollar sees early gains, and u.s. cash markets closed for presidents' day. dani will be back in a couple of days. meantime, i am changing gears and steering wheels.

there are a lot of facets, risk on and risk off risks and haven trade. two of them are present in the markets, the rates narrative and the rollo narrative. haven trade has yet to be pervasive. no landing, hard landing? don't be duped into this mega tech rally according to wealth enhancement, not bullish on the stickiness of the rally. i like what dan loeb says, cpi has exaggerated the economic strength of the united states of america and the economy could be in for a bit of a tough landing. it is playing three card monte. the data is playing three card monte. you think you know where the right card is, you don't. it is a game of falses.

the dollar has wiped out this year's losses. three weeks of gains, tipping over just so slightly this morning, you could call it flat. futures are open, cash is closed, bond futures prices decline, yields rise. we wait for pce this week, larry summers warns of a very hard risk and the brakes will have to be slammed very hard. more from larry in a moment. and copper this morning, goldman reaffirming their bullish view on the commodity sector. copper up by 4/10 of 1%. they say the market is losing patient with the bullish thesis but remains intact for them. commodities will fly this year. our reporters are standing by, a lot of geopolitics to get through today, a meeting between the top diplomats of the china into the u.s. failing to improve

relations. iran taking a step toward acquiring a nuclear weapon. the latest from north korea. the munich security conference. the meeting between the top diplomats from china and the u.s. has only heightened tensions between the sides. here's what antony blinken said about recent downing of a suspected spy balloon. >> i made very clear to him that china sending a surveillance balloon over the united states in violation of our sovereignty and in violation of international law was unacceptable and must never happen again. manus: china calls that a hysterical downing of the balloon. rebecca has been with me through the morning discussing this. the latest from this meeting, of course the chinese are not even calling a meeting. they won't even deign to call it

a meeting. rebecca: yes. there had been hope this meeting or non-meeting would represent some kind of détente, some relief between china and the u.s., and instead we are trapped in a cycle of acrimonious finger wagging. china's top diplomat calling the u.s. downing of the balloon hysterical, almost incomprehensible. blinken pushing back. the focus is shifting from discussion around the balloon saga to the role of the u.s. sees china playing in russia's war with ukraine. that is taking the four of narratives -- fore of narratives. the u.s. says it has received intelligence that china is planning to aid russia and its war against ukraine. china has pushed back against that and is painting itself as a figure of a mediator, a

peacemaker. it really does seem that the continued role china is going to play when it comes to russia, which of course, a reminder that xi jinping has declared a no limits friendship with vladimir putin, the role china is going to play is the focal point of rising tensions between china and the u.s. going forward now. manus: it's interesting to see the response. the eu is to spend 4 billion euros for ammunition purchases good but -- purchases. rebecca, thank you. the geopolitical situation between china and u.s. relations. two senior diplomats have told bloomberg that there has been uranium detected in iran just below what is needed for a nuclear weapon. it's the second time this month

the monitors have detected this activity. simone, this discovery -- how shocking is this? or is this momentum building on an ongoing basis in iran and capacity? simone: i think this is a result of the activities we've seen in the last couple of years because it certainly seems to confirm the view of experts who believe that iran is either at the cusp of a nuclear threshold state or already a nuclear threshold state. that means the country has the capabilities, the technical capabilities as well as the material to be able to form a nuclear weapon. what is unclear about this headline that the monitors found uranium enriched just shy of the 90% needed in a nuclear weapon is whether or not iran actually produced this intentionally.

it could have also been formed by some of the country's other enrichment activities. iran has said it is enriching uranium to 60%, much further shy of the 90%, but 60% is already a level that the un atomic monitoring association says is technically indistinguishable from the material in a nuclear weapon. we've seen a lot of tensions across the region because of concerns about iran's growing nuclear capabilities and every time iran gets closer to the 90% threshold, it means we are less likely to get a diplomatic resolution where iran limits its nuclear capabilities, because once you have the scientific knowledge, you can't really go back. potential fallout across the region for regional diplomacy and of course the west looking on these development's not liking what they are seeing. manus: thank you very much, simone.

north korea has fired a barrage of missiles today according to neighboring south korea. this comes less than two days after pyongyang launched a long-range market designed to hit the american mainland. let's bring in bruce. talk me through the tensions in the region. the show of strength, one could say, from pyongyang, at a tenuous time in u.s. and china relations to say the least. why now? bruce: we have a reminder that with the other problems the u.s. faces with russia and ukraine, with china and iran, there is north korea, one of the most, or the most difficult problems for the u.s. to solve. the latest is north korea filed two short range ballistic missiles, they train -- they

traveled about 400 kilometers, an altitude of about 100 kilometers. this a day after the u.s. conducted military exercises with south korea and japan. those included b-1 bombers, stealth fighters. that intern came a day after north korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile. we do have this escalation of tensions. the worrisome thing down the road is that the north korean leader has pledged to conduct another nuclear test. this would be the first since 2017. potentially a much greater escalation to come. manus: ok, we will keep an on those developed in spirit -- on those developments. the munich security conference

has concluded with ukraine dominating the discussion. the ukrainian president urged more speed in delivery of weapons and ammunition to his country. this week marks the one-year year anniversary since russia's invasion. let's bring in our warsaw bureau chief. good to have you with us. the key takeaways, a 4 billion moniker this morning for ukraine, but what discussions are there about the conflict? piotr: indeed, the security conference was all about ukraine or mostly about ukraine, and obviously the key takeaway is we are in it for the long haul. this is not going to end quickly. we are approaching the one-year mark. since we are there for the long haul, is also sort of an inflection point. everyone is expecting renewed invasion from russia and we've seen the foreign minister of ukraine meeting, 50 meetings

over those two days with various leaders, urging more weapons and more support. he also met even defense manager executives from germany. there is the sense we need more weapons. there's also the sense -- we've heard from rishi sunak and the polish president that the u.k. needs some security guarantee. ukraine wants to join nato, whether that happens, it is a long process. meantime there is a sense from some of the countries, some are urging the u.s. primarily to provide some kind of security guarantees. what security guarantees it will be, we will see. at this point it is not clear. there is a feeling -- there is a nato summit coming up in july and that will probably be a topic for discussion. as you mentioned, there is this whole issue of heightened

tensions between the u.s. and china, and obviously the big takeaway is antony blinken accusing china of considering sending lethal weapons to russia. manus: thank you very much. there are a number of different strands we've got and we will come back to this a little layer own -- later on. you have a biden traveling to poland, macron basically saying russia needs to be defeated but not crushed. we will see how the discussions go. our warsaw bureau chief there. now, are you on facebook? i signed up maybe 20 or 15 years ago but i dropped it. the point, does it hold more validity now? they are going for the verification stamp antic. $11.99 is what you have to pay, probably gearing more toward content creators.

the badge of honor that you are who you say you are. there is me some years ago eating a croissant at breakfast, these are the little moments we decided -- i think that's the earliest of me online. there is a picture of me on facebook in a bar somewhere in kings cross and it might have been 15 years ago, looking very different. that was breakfast on daybreak in the olden days. pay up for your tech on meta. if you want credibility, visibility and positioning on facebook or instagram, you can roll up now on meta. it also diversifies the revenue strain. -- revenue stream. you cannot feed the beast everywhere, so many ticks on some deplatforms, it is almost nauseating. there is meta over the one-year. coming up, the hawkish comments

from the fed officials right through to geopolitical tensions with our guest here on bloomberg. ♪

>> the risk is that we will hit the brakes very hard and when we hit the brakes very hard, that is going to kick in at the same time some of those negative cyclic or dynamics about rising savings and excess industry -- inventory and so forth are kicking in. manus: that was larry summers on inflation and the challenge it poses for the fed. we get the latest readings from the central bank, pce, this week , along with the minutes from the less we can. -- last meeting.

my guest is with me. you have larry summers morning about having to hit the brakes very hard, just as some of the long cyclical lags probably kick in. do you think the market -- and you would say the equity market is way too positive in its scenario. listening to larry, what is the risk, what is the -- what does the brake slam look like to you from the fed? >> i think markets are ignoring the risk. if it were to happen, i would expect equity markets would tank easily, 10% or 20% in a short period of time. i think that is underpriced at the moment. the fed might continue to hike, and might have to get back to larger hikes. manus: what is it that provokes

such a big response? is it 5.5%, opening up to 6%? what could provoke that kind of shock in equity? tatjiana: when investors start seeing the risk beyond five-and-a-half, the fed is really taking things seriously and apparently it is difficult to bring under control core inflation. i think that's the moment in time when investors will switch. i think of -- i think a lot of investors now have jumped on the train, the foam oh direction. we've seen this rising and they are saying i don't want to miss it. i think there's a lot of sentiment driven trades driving markets at the moment and it has

led to the situation like we had over the weekend, and still markets continue rising. so clearly, markets at the moment are only assessing positive yields. manus: maybe they will have to do what mohamed el-erian suggests. let's take a listen. >> i don't think they can get cpi to 2% without crashing the economy. but that's because 2% is not the right target for our economy. when you have so much stuff going on on the supply side, energy transition, change in the supply change, -- chains, geopolitical issues, the way the labor market functions -- it is a long list of supply issues. you need a higher stable inflation rate, call it 3% to 4%. manus: one that be part of the

narrative? would the fed choke on that? tatjana: i agree with the reasons cited but maybe you shouldn't underestimate the huge pile of public debt and one of the best ways to get rid of the debt for governments is to just have inflation. they will also put pressure on central banks that they are happy with a higher rate of inflation, higher than 2%, that for me is one of the main reasons why central banks might willing to tolerate higher levels of inflation. manus: that's getting us back to financial repression, which larry summers himself wasn't keen on discussing when he was here in dubai. you are worried about china, goldman is bullish on china and commodities. they are warning that there are near-term jolts. you worry about china not necessarily because of supply

disruptions but geopolitics. when you see the behavior this weekend, are you more worried about china and how do you react to that risk? tatjana: for me, this is like the risk that might play out over the next five to 10 years. this is something we don't know, it could also happen next month or at the end of the year. that is what makes it so tricky. it is enough that we see one unexpected event happening that could make things escalate. i think it is very dangerous that we are very dependent economically on china. i think we should see what happened with russia as a wake-up call and become less the pendant on economies that are authoritarian regimes and where we don't know what will happen tomorrow. manus: ok. we've kicked off the week on a

kind of durr doom laden position. what is my key position to take against the mounting risks you have outlined? tatjana: you should have broader diversification. you should not just bet on one sector or region. i think that's very dangerous. i think also, cash, it creates complexity in your portfolio when you need it, you need to control the risk and give your portfolio the ability to take on complex positions. and trades that trade on macro volatility. this is a trade that is for sure good to be done in 2023. manus: all right. let's talk again.

the deputy investment officer. the u.s. and china meeting failed to tone down the tensions, and if anything, the ratcheted higher. we will dig into the story in just a moment on "daybreak: europe" here on bloomberg. ♪

>> this is "daybreak: europe" and i am here with a quick check of your first word news. germany's defense minister says the coming weeks will be quite decisive for ukraine in a turning back the russian offensive. he spoke to bloomberg at the munich security conference, where the war remains the focus of discussions. >> the defense is what we have

to achieve the next three months. and reliably working. it's very important to have a safe sky over ukraine and keep out russian aircrafts. this is very important, and therefore the next three months are very crucial but decisive in a final way. simone: senior diplomats say atomic inspectors in iran detected uranium enriched to levels just below what is needed for nuclear weapon. it's the second time this month on at your say they've detected suspicious activity. it's not clear whether iran purposely they the material. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am simone foxman. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you. rounding up the top geopolitical stories. coming up, how the european

landscape has changed one year on since russia's invasion of ukraine. there has been the energy crisis,, the call for more arms, military hardware and the constant call and request from ukraine in regards to air cover. the highlights of bloomberg conversation with the u.k. prime minister at the munich security conference with maria tadeo right here on bloomberg. ♪ i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo!

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manus: good morning. i am manus cranny in dubai. turning up the heat -- a meeting between the top u.s. and chinese diplomats backfires as antony blinken and his counterpart's over balloons, russia, north korea and taiwan. temperatures rising -- pyongyang conducts more missile tests while inspectors in iran detected uranium enriched to levels just below what is needed for nuclear weapon. stocks keep their cool -- asian equities kickoff in the green, the dollar seeds early gains despite geopolitical tensions. cash markets closed for president's day in the united days of america. no hard landing, no landing, what variation on a theme you want? we just had a guest with me. the markets are far too sanguine. there is a risk the fed needs to go further and faster than we are presumed and you can see not just a correction but a bear

market in the very short-term term in equities in the united states. down 10% or maybe toy percent on a 6% handle from the fed. nasdaq flat at the moment. cash markets will maybe see a little less volume because it is presidents' day today. there is a warning that the cpi and jobs data may exaggerate the economic strength in the united states. rolet over, the assets, the dollar has wiped out losses. what drives the dollar? risk on, risk off? typically in the backorder. rates? what is not happening this morning is there is no haven sentiment in the dollar from the geopolitical angst. the bloomberg commodity index simmers down 1% this morning. goldman's rocking it out with a big bullish call on iron ore. they say there is a lot of patience in the market for

commodities but they don't question their conviction, they remain fully bullish on commodities through the year. copper, i felt we would throw that in, a system -- soupcent of green. friday marks one year since the beginning of the war between russia and ukraine. 12 months later, we take stock of some of the human impact and also the effect on the food and energy prices, inflation, and long-term consequences for the european economy. tom: russia invaded ukraine in the predawn hours offender 24th, 2022. this after president vladimir putin spent months willing up troops along the border. the unprovoked attack sparked the biggest flow of refugees since world war ii. over 8 million ukrainians have fled the war. tens of thousands have died or been wounded amid unspeakable

brutality. but the impact extends far beyond the human tragedy. the fighting between two of the world's biggest food producers hampered exports from the region. together russia and ukraine had accounted for a quarter of global wheat trade in half of sunflower seeds and oil. prices around the world surged although they have since eased back. the conflicts also caused the biggest european energy crisis in decades, especially in germany, forcing countries to cut their reliance on russian exports. before the war, more than 40% of eu imports of natural gas came from russia and over a quarter of oil imports. no longer. soaring prices helped fuel the fastest inflation in the euro's history, forcing the ecb into its most aggressive series of rate hikes ever. a year later, the war shows no signs of ending, and although

ukraine has made advances using weapons mostly supplied by the u.s. and europe. it will take hundreds of billions of dollars to one day rebuild the nation. what comes next may in large part pinned on russia's moves, western support and ukrainian determination. led by a president who has become a household name around the world. manus: the reality and tragedy of war in ukraine. tom mackenzie reporting there. it was the center point of the munich security conference. that continued over the weekend and ukraine dominated the discussions throughout. it's bring in our warsaw bureau chief. thank you for being with me. there are many takeaways from the munich security conference. what stood out for you and are

there divisions in terms of this conflict and duration? you read macron on the bbc talking about not wanting to crush russia, what to defeat it. piotr: of course, the sense is we are at an inflection point, as rishi sunak said. the divisions that have emerged our how far we should go, or how far nato should go in arming ukraine. there has been a drip feed of arms going to ukraine, primarily from the u.s., about $30 billion worth of support. but obviously there have been certain delays. there's a bit of confusion over how quickly the members of the nato firm from europe can provide battle tanks, it is an ongoing process.

ukraine is urging nato to provide weapons as quickly as possible, as at this point there is an expectation of renewed invasion unless there is a renewed invasion ongoing. ukraine is pushing for more arms. at the same time, there is a sense in nato they should provide more, the question is how far they should go. the u.s. has been the leader in providing support. at the same time, president biden and u.s. officials have dismissed or at this point ruled out sending, for example, f-16 fighter jets. at the same time, we heard from one of the senators during this munich conference that he is confident that at some point the u.s. will start training ukrainian pilots for f-16. this might be coming at some point. obviously we have come a long way and biden is coming here, he

was here in march of last year and he is coming here and the expectations are he will renew this commitment that there will be support for the eastern flank and there is ongoing support for ukraine going forward. the question is how far and in what form. this also will be a topic for the nato summit in july. a lot to talk about, a lot of questions, how far the nato allies are going to go in providing support. biden's speech tomorrow in warsaw will probably shed some light on that. manus: ok, we will be tracking the speech. yourself and the team on the ground. our warsaw bureau chief. coming up, we will bring you our conversation with the head of

the -- the deputy governor of the national bank of ukraine. the prime minister of the u.k. says they need to finalize pledges to ukraine before the nato summit in july. speaking at maria tadeo, he called on countries to equip ukraine with the means to win the war right now. pm sunak: it is clear the security guarantees, the architecture in place before this war has failed ukraine. that's just a statement of fact. ukraine had received assurances when it gave weapons up, russia has violated treaties. what happened before has not worked, we should be clear about that. now our job is to look forward and say what is the right thing going forward? as i mentioned, it was said that ukraine will be a member of nato, but between now and then,

what we need to work on our providing ukraine with the means to win the war right now. that means very specifically artillery, long-range weapons, armored vehicles, air defense is the most critical thing. we can also make sure we are training ukraine on nato standard equipment, that's what we are doing when it comes to aircraft with their pilots. i think what we do need to do his thing about the future of how we protect ukraine's security and have that conversation with our allies and talk about the longer-term provision of supporting ukraine in that's a conversation i think we should start having. maria: the assurances would come this year. you talked about the fighter jets, there's been debate about the ammunition, the risk they may not have enough ammunition, but also the long-range missiles, concerned that may be one of the targets would be crimea. under your watch, would you approve long-range missiles that could hit crimea? pm sunak: nato is a defensive

alliance. that's the first thing to recall. what is ukraine doing? trying to defend itself. it is suffering unprovoked aggression. its territorial integrity, sovereignty has been violated. it's people are being killed. it has every right to defend itself. that is what we should be doing. that's the support we collectively in this room are providing. particularly there are things ukraine needs to gain that decisive advantage on the battlefield. that's why the provision of heavy tanks was so important, why air defense is critical. you are right to mention artillery. long-range weapons also help. those will allow ukraine to defend itself and repel russian aggression and to have a counteroffensive that moves russia outside of its own country. i think that is reasonable and we should be fully behind ukraine in that ambition and want it to succeed. manus: u.k. prime minister

speaking with maria tadeo at the munich security conference. coming up, how to -- how close is a resolution to northern ireland's trade rules? more from that conversation with her sunak and maria tadeo. on bloomberg. ♪ and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a check out angi.com today. angi... and done.

pm sunak: there is still work to do. there are still challenges to work through. we have not resolved all these issues. there isn't a deal that has been done, there is an understanding of what needs to be done. i have been in northern ireland talking to parties there about the things we need to fix. we are working through those, working through them hard and we will work through them intensely

with the eu but we are not done, there is no deal done, there is work to do and that is what we will set about doing. manus: and so it continues. the u.k. prime minister discussing the potential deal for northern ireland protocol at the munich security conference over the weekend with maria tadeo. striking a brexit deal with the eu is shaping up to be literally one of the biggest tests of this prime minister's tenure. a solution to the impasse and northern ireland would allow the u.k. to reset its relations with the eu and its biggest trading partner them up but he risks a standoff again with northern ireland unions and members of his own party. bring in lizzy burden. sunak makes it clear there is no imminent deal to be announced, the whips are contacting the various party members over the weekend. is it really close? a final deal? lizzy: that was classic

expectations management from rishi sunak in munich. you have heard him in a flurry of diplomatic talks the past two days with ursula von der leyen and the parties in northern ireland, as you say. the newspapers had been reporting that you might have had an announcement today but we are expecting that will be delayed by a day because he is still engaging with both brussels and belfast. the telegraph newspaper reported late last night that there will be a pause on a deal because of blowback from mp's in his own party. they say they are feeling like they are being bounced into a deal because of the ramping up of expectations and they are not happy with that. you had the former chief brexit negotiator, david frost, tweeting that rishi sunak does not have a deadline so he might as well keep negotiating and really the pressure is epitomized by the intervention

by the former prime minister boris johnson, essentially telling rishi sunak to take a more confrontational approach. manus: and duncan smith as well, a former tory leader saying as long as eu law and regulations apply in northern ireland, leaving the province outside of the u.k. single market, the dup cannot go back into the assembly that's the crux of the matter for the people from where i came from. there might have been an economic boom but i assure you there is a political vacuum and a vacuum in the management of northern ireland. can rishi sunak convince the unionists and the backbenchers in his own party? others have failed miserably before. lizzy: you are right that the sticking point is the role of the european court of justice. sunak hasn't been able to convince brussels there should

be no role for the ecj in northern ireland and you have eu leaders saying they are going to maintain the integrity of the single market and of the court. rishi sunak when speaking with maria tadeo in munich acknowledged there is a democratic deficit he needs to address. but there are realistically three options here. according to a government official that spoke to us -- first that they agree to a deal and it goes on unopposed. secondly, that the dup and brexit are mp's are not happy with the deal but cannot oppose it. thirdly, that sunak at further negotiations but they are essentially a charade and go nowhere. remember that what is different this time with sunak as leader is he has some of the most prominent brexiteers in the

government like steve baker of the european research group, formerly chairman, and that takes some of the wind out of their sales. -- sails. plus labor had said it would give political cover to whatever comes through. it's looking like the second option most likely at this stage and it would make rishi sunak look like he has more of a grip on the government than his predecessors, at least that's what his allies would say. manus: he might have to lean into that labor support to perhaps push back against the more truculent part of his own party. thank you very much, lizzy burden with the latest on the northern ireland negotiations. coming up, multibillion-dollar bidding war for manchester united is heating up. the latest details on the bids. ♪

manus: the bidding war for manchester united heating up. a member of the qatari moral family britain's riches -- qatari royal family and britain's richest man. now you have someone preparing the financing for the bid. let's get more color on all of this. simone foxman is in doha. tell us more about this qatari royal member. who is he, what we know about him? simone: he is not a member of

the very small royal family close to the emir but he is the son of the former prime minister and very noted investor, prime minister until 2013. he has been involved in a lot of qatari businesses the last couple of years, indeed since before he was 20. he is the chairman of qatar islamic bank, one of the largest sharia compliant lenders in the region, certainly the largest in qatar. he also sat on the boards of important companies, like a shipping and logistics company, that are key to some of the ways that qatar wants to transform its economy, ship its products, lng, around the world. he has had a lot of let's say involvement in broader qatari initiatives, particularly business initiatives through the

years, even if he has a lesser international profile and his father, who was involved in government and very outspoken. manus: there are lots of various objections, certainly on the terrestrial news channels on the weekend, various parts of the supporters side within manchester united. what are the real impediments here? simone: let's talk about this from a high level of finance and deal side. one of them, what i was alluding to before, is that he is very close to the government and royal family. one of the issues is that the governing body of english football, european football i should say, does not allow two teams owned by the same entity to enter into competitions. there are some exceptions to this, but because he is so close

to the royal family, do they allow that to move forward? psg, the french team, is owned by qatar sports investments and they have worked to separate themselves from some of the other entities in qatar. the other, there is competition. the u.k. billionaire you mentioned, submitted his bid for at least a majority stake of the team. all of this will be hashed out in the coming weeks. manus: just run us through the actual eating process. -- bidding process. are there deadlines, or is it just show me the money? simone: [laughter] we don't know those numbers quite yet. this is a process being run by an investment firm. what is clear what will happen next is the bidders will have

access to more confidential information about manchester united. particularly the qatari one, that includes things like the training center in stadium. they will get more details on exactly what this is. hopefully in the next couple of weeks we will figure out what these offer prices were and maybe we will get a sense of whether the glacier family, -- glazier family, who have been asking for up to 16 million -- 16 billion pounds, whether it will get close to that. manus: ok, let's see where the deal comes down. simone foxman in the qatari capital. let's take a look at some of the events we will keep an eye on. joe biden as we speak is ready to set forth to poland today, the start of eight two daytrip where ukraine is top of the agenda. tuesday, we are do to get a host

of preliminary pmi from europe and the u.s.. wednesday, the latest from the fomc meeting. and thursday, the u.s. gdp and jobless claims. friday marks one year on from russia's invasion of ukraine. ok. this is how risk looks this monday morning. we are not exactly worrying --roaring risk on. we are at an inflection point of whether the fed will have to slam the brakes hard according to larry summers. the dollar is a flat and the bloomberg commodity index is down even though goldman sachs holds faith in commodities. ♪

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