manus: good morning, it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe."

i am manus cranny in dubai. >> one year later, kyiv stands and ukraine stands, democracy stands. america stands with you and the world stands with you. manus: historical, timely, brave. president biden pledges more military support for ukraine at during a surprise meeting with president zelenskyy in kyiv. counting down a day for the fomc minutes, stocks and futures fall while the dollar gains, traders weigh the prospects that the fed will keep rates higher for longer. plus, hsbc consider a special payout after earnings beat estimates. but bhp slashes the dividend after the lowest half-year profit since 2021. >> i'm pleased that three years later there's a radical change in profit generation by geography. the middle east alone last year

had an adjusted pretext profit of $3 million. manus: a little more from noel quinn leader in the show. the turnaround in hsb -- on hsbc. european stocks, u.s. equities are skittish, to say the least. the debate is how much further will europe outperform the united states of america on a motor -- on a more regular basis? this is a cross asset map for you, two-year yields continue to rise, on the back foot, breakevens the highest since november and could and will trade higher. goldman site ready for three more quarter-point clips from the fed. the higher for longer narrative will take hold and no breakup in 2023. why do i like looking at cable?

bluebay, a wonderful piece on twitter. the outlook for the british pound is dog awful. they were so depressed after a meeting with cohorts at the bank of england they wanted to get down and pray. the u.k. underperforming even russia. keep an eye on that, fairly dreadful statements from bluebay asset management here. iron ore is up, more so to do with the fact that you're looking at perhaps the highest close in months. you have green shoots, you just heard from hsbc in terms of headwinds on credit will dissipate and you are looking at the slightly more bullish language. to the equity markets, let's look what we've got for you across markets. equities lighter on their feet this morning, down by 4/10 of 1% on s&p 500. euro stoxx 50 down 1/8 of 1%.

bhp cutting the dividend from a record down to $.90. attributable profit to shareholders down 32%. we will keep an eye on those big miners through the morning. everybody is set up for the agenda, for the day, our reporters around the world. the u.s. presidential surprise visit toyiv, -- to kyiv,, and hsbc with better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. to the president's visit. go biden has promised further actions on people and can -- and companies assisting the russia war effort in a surprise visit to kyiv. joining us is our warsaw bureau chief. what is the global significance of that visit by biden to kyiv

yesterday? piotr: indeed, it is hard not to underestimate the scale of this visit. obviously we are talking about an 80-year-old president who ventured into the zone of conflict to take a 10 hour trip by train to kyiv. the whole point of the visit was to show this unwavering support of the u.s. and the nato allies for ukraine. biden met with zelenskyy and vowed the u.s. will stand with ukraine as long as it takes. he also promised $460 million of additional aid. the significance of that visit is quite astounding. obviously most of all it is a morale boost for ukrainians, who have been going through a very

tough time over this year. obviously what they haven't heard, what president zelenskyy hasn't heard from biden is additional aid in the form of, for example, fighter jets, which they are pushing for. in any case, this is still a significant move and a big morale booster for ukrainians as they are probably gearing up for a renewed invasion from russian forces coming this spring or already underway. we've seen fighting flaring up in the east of ukraine. manus: the other side of the story is after the clearing and no limits partnership with russia, beijing is floating a peace deal. cannot be taken seriously? -- can that he taken seriously? piotr: we've heard of a peace deal floated by china did we don't know the details, it hasn't been released officially,

but what we hear from officials talking about this, china wants to be seen as a broker in this situation. what they mostly fear is they are being lumped together with russia and we've seen over the weekend during the munich conference where obviously antony blinken actually said china is considering sending weapons to russia to help end the war. -- to help in the war. china is trying to decouple itself from russia and present itself as a broker. the question is whether it can be considered an honest broker in this case. if you consider the line of contact -- obviously china has

been to russia several times and hasn't been to speak with zelenskyy ones. i think the increase in crude has been the biggest on record when it comes to oil imports since the oil's -- since the war started. china doesn't want to be seen as a part of this conflict, they wanted to be part of the solution. the question is whether they can be considered an honest broker. that remains to be seen. manus: let's see to what extent they can deliver a proposition that perhaps is something the world can work with. our bureau chief in poland. the russian exports, they discounted cruel and fuel to china, they have jumped to record levels, as the reopening of the world's largest energy importer gathers pace as we see the dismantling of covid zero.

let's get more from stephen. let the oil flow and it did. it is making its way slowly but surely to china. what does the latest data tell you about an inflection point in the flow? good morning. stephen: good morning. i think there are two things, you were talking about how china wants to separate themselves from russia but they are buying most russian crude and i think it shows two things. one, chinese oil demand is coming back and they need to fill it. don't just need russia to fill it, all of their suppliers to fill it because it's coming back strong. refineries are running at full capacity and you are also seeing a lot of covid restrictions being drawn back and an outlook for an economic rebound as soon as the second quarter of this year. the second thing is russian crude is cheap, it is cheaper than other options because russia can't find buyers in europe and other regions because of the sanctions.

they are going to china. that's an opportunity to not only fill the void for china but also get oil that is affordable for them to power their economy. it is a win-win for them even if they're trying to distance themselves from what moscow was doing. manus: what are traders looking out for from the fed? there is this polemic between the fed and what they are doing and the impact on the dollar and then there's the china reopening. i just had a conversation with noah quinn from hsbc reaffirming the better outlook. piotr: -- stephen: you'll have the minutes on wednesday i believe and they will look at is there any indication the fed will turn more hawkish? will we see interest rates rising more than we thought before. if that happens, the chances of an economic slowdown are may be more in the cards. what you're looking at right now and the oil market is a whole between china and the return of

chinese demand and a possible recession in the united states and europe that would sap demand for oil. which one will win out? traders will look at the minutes closely and any other information that comes out of the fed the next few days and weeks going forward. manus: ok, stephen, all eyes on that. hsbc shares are trading lower. the lender is considering a special payout after the sale of assets in canada and china. the ceo told me a short time ago that he is not overly concerned about the performance in the u.k.. noel: from my own portfolio, what i see through our consumer business, retail business, we are not seeing major signs of stress at the moment. it is in relatively normal territory. in our wholesale and commercial banking business, i think there are some corporates starting to

feel some cash flow pressure because of higher inflation, higher interest rates, but again, that still fairly marginal i would say at the moment for us. manus: he went on to say he was more positive in general sentiment on the u.k. perhaps than some other people out there. tom metcalf joins me. good to see you. a lot to chew on in terms of the statement and guidance from noel. let's start with the numbers first of all. special divvy, attempted share buyback. what stood out for you? tom: across the board, hsbc came ahead of estimates and i think the markets have fixated on is the buyback you mentioned. there's a chance that some are disappointed it isn't more solidified at this point. they said in terms of payout, we will decide that once we have the money from the canada sale. i think that's what rocket was

hoping for, to see shares rise, something really concrete saying we will pay out a big chunk of money. manus: standard chartered is under pressure at $1 billion and they payout, and ubs at $5 billion. i think the proceeds from canada are $5.7 billion. tom, thank you for being with me on hsbc. coming up on the show, traders looking ahead to the release of the pce inflator and fed minutes this week on clues for what is the fed's next move. ♪ introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number.

>> we have seen some higher inflation numbers for january. i don't necessarily think that breaks the trend toward disinflation but i think it reinforces the idea that the fed still has work to do, and so we think another 75 basis points from here with no cuts until 2024 seems like a more likely outcome. manus: the goldman sachs chief economist speaking to bloomberg tv about his thoughts on rates and where they are heading. three more clips of 25 basis points.

my next guest is with me. that's mild compared with larry summers, he reckons they have to hit the brakes hard. what is your worst-case scenario? put your money where your mouth is, what is your worst-case scenario for u.s. rates? >> i think if we are talking worst-case scenarios, or talking sticky inflation, a fed that has to probably do another 50 to 75 now and finds itself in trouble after the summer into than has to do another 50 to 100 basis points. that would be my worst-case scenario, not base case. i have to stress that. if inflation turns out sticky, that will be a problem. manus: you are neutral on risk-taking. what does it get you to crank up the dial? >> i think we have to get more clarity on that point. we've seen inflation come down, we had more disinflation than expected but january with the revisions on top of the actual

print show that perhaps we were not quite as far along as we hoped for. that was an important market for us. he couldn't quite give up on the inflation risk just yet. secondly, we want to see confirmation that the recession risk in europe and the u.s. continues to wane into the pickup of growth in china carries through. those two components, growth and inflation, are what we are really looking for. manus: it's interesting, the rest of the conversation is the inflation print at the start of the year and his mind does not dispel the disinflation narrative. are you as a shirt? -- as assured? >> we agree the disinflation is still there. we know inflation is going to come down almost mathematically. the problem is, where is the base level of inflation going to land? 3, 4 or above for?

-- above four? there's still a lot of market risk and concern about the path of monetary policy. it's the landing zone so to speak that we are worried about. manus: yeah, it really is, and it's interesting, stephen major was with me on friday and he said i think it's going to be a table mountain scenario, that steep ramp we've had, and then we go into a plateau zone where rates remain sticky. with that narrative, which i think you would concur with, is that high and hold, why does that justify being longer of high-yield and underweight ig? are you trading that as a spread or thesis? >> both. we like the spread and the reward we are getting for being in high-yield, and because yields have trended down so much, we were at the bottom end

of our range could we also felt comfortable being underweight duration from that point of view. the whole idea for us was at the short end of the curve, and i'm talking the next three to six months, we did feel markets were roughly right in the fed outlook. the 5%, 5.2 5% seems reasonable. what did not seem reasonable was a 4.5% by the end of the year, those two rate cuts priced in. now that those have been reversed and yields are back up higher, we are more comfortable with that position, which also means from a spread perspective, high versus ig trade is starting to wane a little bit. it's more now about the overall risk in high-yield and less about the spread. manus: i am curious -- i am fascinated by this clip on twitter from bluebay where mark comes out and says the outlook for the british pound is dog awful, and he was so depressed after a series of meetings he had with cohorts at the bank of england, at the end of the

meeting he wanted to pray. he wanted to pray because the u.k. economy was literally in worse shape than russia. the ceo of hsbc is not as worried. do you have any u.k. exposure, would you take any, would you short the pound? >> i would not. we are neutral on the u.k., we do not share such a bearish outlook. the u.k. has problems and the economic outlook is not great but we continue to see a pretty strong labor market, and on the back of that, we continue to see a resilient u.k. consumer. for the u.k. outlook to really worsen, you need to see that picture shift meaningfully. that being said, there are major headwinds, the inflation outlook is troubling, the bank of england having a challenging time managing it, and the housing market looks particularly fragile. there are real issues and we expect there to be a recession,

but for the u.k. economy to fall out of bed, you need to see the labor market turn south. on the back end of that, the consumer as well, and we haven't seen that yet. manus: maybe there is a long variable lag to that economic thesis. we had a red headline when you came on the set about japan, 10 year government bond yields, they are testing the mettle of the bank of japan, the cap is being tested for the first time since january. when do they change the cap, throw off the cap, throw off the yield curve control? these are the various 10 year cash bonds that are testing the mettle of the big of japan. are you getting more worried when you see these tests of the market against the back of japan? >> actually we are not. we look at the way the bank of japan is acting and it is still very much from a position of strength. we look at it as a control

measure that they still have in place. first and foremost because they don't yet know whether inflation is sufficiently entrenched that they can let go of their very loose monetary policy. i think they want to see more confirmation on that. once they do, i don't see anything to stop them from increasing the levels they are using for yield curve controls. they can go 50 to 75 to 100. yes, there will be market pressures when they do that but they can do it in a controlled manner because they are coming from a position of strength. we are not so worried about and unraveling of the japanese yield curve control trade and huge market implications from that, we are more focused on whether or not they will succeed on the inflation front and gradually ratchet up the rates. manus: ok, thank you for joining us this morning. coming up, fresh tremors in

turkey in a province again two weeks after devastating earthquakes struck in the same area. we are live in turkey for the latest. ♪

manus: a pair of powerful earthquakes has struck turkeys southeastern province overnight, just two weeks after major tremors in the same area left tens of thousands of people dead in turkey and syria. for more, let's get to simone foxman tracking the story from doha. this is a huge setback. just the severity of the quakes, can you put them in context? simone: cnn turk is reporting six people have died from the latest earthquakes, adding to the 41,000 plus people who died just in turkey in the major quakes two weeks ago.

more than 300 people are injured. that is what we understand from government officials. while these quakes on a richter scale basis were less powerful than the ones that hit this region two weeks ago, they were a more direct hit on the city, the capital of the province, where the mayor says buildings have collapsed, there are people stuck under the rubble. others have fled to their cars, no longer feeling safe inside buildings. across the syrian border as well, medical professionals are talking about the number of heart attacks they have seen, including one caused by fear from a seven-year-old boy. syria's recovery effort has been very slow. the turkish side of the border, we are seeing a more interesting development of events. yesterday, president erdogan promised there would be the construction of 200,000 homes it would begin next month.

he has pledged this construction and recovery effort will happen within a year. but there's been a lot of criticism both of the initial response as well as the construction codes that caused the damage and his involvement in that. the idea most experts say that you will get everything back in a year seems unrealistic. manus: thank you very much. simone foxman with the latest on turkey and the promises for credit guarantees to be boosted c(jennifer)antees to be boosted fthe reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off.

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manus: good morning, this is bloomberg daybreak europe. >> one year later he stands --

keep stands and ukraine stands. democracy stands. america stands with you and the world stands with you. manus: historic, timely and brave. he pledges more military support to ukraine during a surprise meeting with president zelenskyy. stocks and futures fall while the dollar gains. hsbc considers special payout after an earnings beat, shares and hong kong slide. they told bloomberg that will transactions remain strong. >> u.s. and european businesses seeing strong cross-border interaction from their home markets in a europe and u.s. into asia and the middle east.

one of the signals from my customers is they are still trading internationally. manus: we will have more from noel throughout the morning and he talks about credit losses coming in at 1.4 billion and some of the headwinds in china will subside. the debate is they want to do something much more solid on the buyback and timing of that. hsbc stock you will see on the lower part of your screen. it had a bump in of the first half and has come back. there is a whole layer of views out there. they are cutting the dividend from a record to $.90. the slow down and drop in commodity slowdown has dented the process -- prices. that is the australian quote at the bottom of the screen.

it will fizzle out he says. there is a bit of skittishness in the equity market ahead of what will come. there are three more clips of 25 basis points to come. they want to pray that awful look. russia is at war with ukraine. crude dips ever so slightly this morning and you have iron or reacting to the slightly more bullish outlook. you are looking at the highest close nearly in each months there as they talk about green shoots in that particular commodity demand. hsbc shares are lower in hong kong now after reporting a -- in the profit. that's rose by 92% in of the fourth quarter. noel quinn told me he is pleased

with some of the big changes that he has affected at the bank. >> if you go back three years ago we were very dependent on profit generation coming from two principal markets, hong kong and the u.k.. what i am really pleased three or later's is a radical change and profit generation by geography. the middle east generated 1.8 billion of profits last year. a troubled market in europe three years ago produced $2 million. u.s. business produced a pretax profit of $1 billion. even and asia we got good diversification. we generated more than $4 billion in 2022. so that's gives me a solid base of geographic profit generation

supported and overlaid with a strong international banking franchise and a market-leading transaction banking franchise so that's gives me confidence in our 2023 forecast. on net interest margin, our guidance on nii is 36 billion plus. we believe that we still have upside on nii. we have got to in excess of 36 billion in 2023 so good growth. there are some uncertainties on the horizon but we are still positive. we know where consensus is at the moment and we think consensus is in a reasonable position. so we are not looking to change guidance on nii and i think we are pretty confident we have

good prospects of delivering our return next year. manus: i would say cautious but confident noel quinn in terms of the performance at hsbc and the buyback is critical to the thinking of the markets. let's unpack some of this. let's bring in jonas. first take on these results, i am looking at some of the comments back here he talks about china, the commercial real estate has improved, he talks about things from the start of the year and financing. what is your first take? guest: clearly i thought there were quite strong results as you said, adjusted profit almost doubled in of fourth quarter. they performed well across various business lines. as we heard noel quinn sing. obviously there were some -- and then they come out blazing sort of with the proposal of consideration, special dividend

and something that for make at least their large investor base in hong kong very happy, there is assumption of quarterly dividends. as well as hinting at bringing forward the talk of a buyback. so clearly they are in offense of mode against the larger shareholder which we know has been seeking to break up the bank. if we want to look at some of the negative aspects, it is the expected credit losses. they were quite high in china on the real estate meltdown there. but we also heard noel quinn sing earlier -- saying earlier that he is positive on the measures china has taken and he is more positive on the outlook for that. manus: i thought that was interesting. he talked about the guidance for the ecl of 40 basis points for this year. it was interesting that he did play into the actions taken

around liquidity at the end of the year. that seemed to be where he was hanging his hat on part of the improvement in china. guest: well, the chinese authorities have basically gone all out in order to help the struggling real estate sector. only today we saw a news that they are allowing privately -- private equity firms to start investing in real estate. so there is a lot going on in china to put that market back on its feet and clearly that will be good for hsbc in of the long run as well. we will see if some of these -- if they're expected credit losses materialize. they are guiding their expected credit losses this year and the high end of the range that they had proposed earlier. maybe we could see a bit of a surprise later in the year but it remains to be seen. manus: let's see what is said

around -- he is making some comments here. to have a normal investor meeting and of course this is a critically important point. how much pressure will he put on him to pay out all of the $5.7 billion he receives? that is probably going to be one of the driving forces. what else do they want? guest: i think as a lot of shareholders here in hong kong, they are very dependent on dividends from hsbc. hs princi has been paying out dividends for decades -- hsbc has been paying out dividends for decades if not more. so the bank really needs to show that they are back in hong kong's good graces so to speak and the mainland china good graces. manus: it is the dividend play

that the whole market is literally obsessed about. thank. bloomberg's greater china it's finance editor. moving on, bhp banking on rebound and the china economy to boost demand for commodities. that was the view of mike henry. he shared his projections for this year. mike: optimistic about the outlook for china as well as for underlying business performance. in respect to china, we have seen the big two policy shifts recently around zero covid and some more progrowth policies for the property sector. that has been backed up by firm statements by the government that are progrowth for the year ahead. we are seeing the green shoots come through since the start of the calendar year. more bank lending, improved

business sentiment, property prices up in some cities. that reinforces the positive outlook that we have for the year ahead which we expect to offset slowing growth in both the u.s. and europe. the other cause for optimism is the strong underlying business performance. if you see that coming through in the recent half. production up along business divisions. we have stretched our lead as the low cost operator so now 12% is opened up between ourselves and the next best which gives some sense for the way we are navigating what is otherwise a height inflation environment. we expect that will give us momentum moving into the next half. >> give us a sense of how that may impact demand, where we will see the biggest growth. mike: we are forecasting a

stronger growth in both china and india or the growth offsetting some slightly weaker growth in the u.s. and europe. it is commodity dependent. steel, the game is all about what is happening in china at least from a seaborne iron ore perspective. we believe some of the policies and the policies -- housing sector -- that will shift into housing starts which will be positive for steel. but overall, we expect the uptick in a growth in china, strong growth in india will bode well for the commodities we produce. >> essentially perhaps what you have been terming future facing commodities. metals needed and the renewable era. is that mean that after the selling of these two coal mines,

does that indicate that you are going to get an outlook on coal business in order to concentrate on the future facing side of things? mike: we have been very clear and consistent over recent years in terms of our strategy. we want a portfolio that is a leveraged to mega themes unfolding in at the world around us, increased standards of living and of course the energy transition. that has seen as focused on growth and copper, nickel, higher-quality iron ore to aid steelmakers. we have also been clear that the highest quality of calls are going to see --coal. -- and to reduce emissions intensity of steelmaking processes. all our effort has been around

concentrating our portfolio on only the best of the best. manus: that was the ceo mike henry speaking to our colleagues on the second half earnings slump. just a little bit more breaking news on the reporting side. this is a huge global energy services company, oil, gas etc. all the way around the world. the estimate was for 62.88 billion dollars so on a headline operational basis doing exceptionally well and a nice big comfortable beach. 30.7. the estimate was 13.47. -- 13.7. the estimate was 13.47. keep an eye on engie and of

course hsbc as the morning moles on. --mulls on. coming up, president biden is in -- was in kyiv. we bring you the key takeaways from the surprise visit and look ahead to president putin's address later in moscow today. ♪ and we know 80% of couples sleep too hot or too cold. introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number.

manus: president biden has pledged more military aid to help ukraine fight back against russia. while president zelenskyy -- while meeting president zelenskyy during a surprise visit he also promised further sanctions assisting the russian war effort. let's discuss this a little

more. this is very much the symbolism of biden and zelenskyy together ahead of putin speaking today. there were air raid signs in the background, a very strong visual support biden. is that a shock? >> yes, of course. it is a big surprise that he decided to come. there was some speculation that he might actually go but until the last moment, the trip was kept under wraps. now he is and more so and landed last night. the trip was designed after ukrainians have suffered through a war and really bloody conflicts. it and was their first of all to provide a morale boost but also

more importantly to make the case that that the u.s. is there for the long haul and will be there and provide support for as long as necessary for ukraine to win of the war. as you said, biden brought some support which is another package of military aid worth $460 million. it falls short of what president zelenskyy was hoping for which the announcement that the u.s. will provide fighter jets which is something they have been pushing for for some time now but still it is significant age and now we are looking forward to the next speech of this trip, scheduled speech which is later today where biden will probably try to reassure members of nato that the u.s. is there to support them.

manus: thank you very much. perhaps a great deal of presence but not just as much of dollars in his support as zelenskyy wanted. thank you very much. let's get you up to speed with the business flash. >> thanks, hsbc says it is considering a special pay out after the sale of its canadian unit as it looks to face down a campaign from its largest shareholder to break up the business. profit grows 92% in the fourth quarter beating estimates. hsbc's net interest margin jumped to 1.74% up from 1.19% a year earlier. bhp says it is optimistic about a demand for recovery in china after a posted its lowest half your profit since 2021. china's slowdown hits buying of

iron or copper and coal. the main sources of revenue. the biggest miners/it's a dividend after rising cost and softer commodity prices. manus: thank you very much. coming up, rishi sunak looks to strike a post-brexit deal. we have the update on the negotiations right here on bloomberg. ♪

>> the outlook i say it is also basically. it looks pretty -- i had a bit of a catch-up all sharing these

a group within the bank of england. i felt so depressed about the outlook in u.k. i was almost ending the meeting. the outlook for the u.k. economy looks to be particularly weak. we continue to underperform other economies even including russia. manus: dog awful. there you go. let's stay with that theme, rishi sunak has begun his meeting with mp's from the party to win support for the post-brexit trade deal. the outreach effort comes after months of negotiations with the european union. lizzie is tracking the story from london. how close are we? what are the background scenes? there is the extreme right

brexiteers who will stop at nothing to hold their position. where are we? >> not everyone is as negative as market doubting this morning. if richey -- rishi sunak get the deal in could invite -- back to the u.k. which could soften the recession here. in terms of where the talks are at, rishi sunak was meeting them one on one yesterday. you have the foreign secretary due to address today. the allies of the former prime minister boris johnson is saint don't -- saying you don't drop the bill. -- don't drop the bill. it would have allowed them to unilaterally drop the protocol. we are on a watch today.

-- on resignation watch today. it really underscores the strength and weakness that it is for rishi sunak to have mp's who previously quit. it is a good thing to have them inside the proverbial tent but if they walk out it will not look good. manus: that puts more pressure in terms of the eog pushing back , what does he have to do in terms of leaning on a labor. in terms of the union and in northern ireland, what will they accept? >> this is the challenge to get them on board. we heard from sonny wilson, the mpa yesterday saying there are still barriers and hills to climb. -- the mp yesterday. he is the attack dog. the leader is much more

conciliatory and the party is small enough that you would expect him to be able to get -- on the side. manus: it has been a birding -- a burden for many prime ministers. i have to remain impartial. i am from northern ireland. in london on the potential of a brexit deal, thank you. coming up we catch up with the ceo. right here on bloomberg. ♪

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anna: good morning and welcome to bloomberg markets europe. i am 11 london. mark cudmore joins us in singapore.