manus: good morning.

this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm manus cranny in dubai on the stories that set your agenda. asian stocks slide, tracking wall street's worst day this year. investors now pricing higher rates before today's fed minutes. president biden says president putin will never win his war in ukraine it as the wall street journal reports, xi jinping is preparing to visit moscow. rio tinto drops its dividend, echoing rivals such as bhp. fate took a scythe to that dividend. what we have here is a very clear waking up the moment in terms of a reality check of what higher for longer might mean. the equity market is literally shaking on what could be a very hawkish fomc minutes.

does anybody shift the narrative in terms of where we go? barkin talked about 25 basis points last week. but equity markets this morning are just seeing a real belief that things are going to get difficult in the u.s. goldman says you are going to have flat returns, trailing at 18 times, they prefer to be outside the u.s. morgan stanley talks about the death zone for risk premia in equities at the moment. so, there is this wakening of reality of potentially a slowdown in the u.s. new home sales fall for 12 months in a row, it is a long variable lag ladies and gentlemen, that is the fed may be breaking the housing market but not crushing the economy. across the assets, a higher rates volatility paradigm, 10-year paper exploded yesterday, two-paper ramp as well. giving a little back this morning on the 10-year paper.

begins to look interesting according to morgan stanley asset management at 4%, yields do look attractive. the question becomes, what support will the fed minutes deliver for these higher rates? don't forget, you've got a hot pce print to come through eyes well. the bond market is the land of where dreams quite literally go to die. with the best months of the 1990's in january, and trashed in february, we have given up nearly 3% of gains in the bond market. it literally is a land of where dreams crumble, die and go to dust. let's see what's going on in the rest of the world. as we get ready for those fed minutes, the field of dreams, is there anything left alive in it? fight and to give a speech in poland. and in hong kong, we have the budget to contend with. the bank of new zealand hiked by 50 bips, the debate of 75

remains on the table. inflation is too high and the governor adrian orr says all options are on the table. >> we have been working hard to make sure the committee has all options available, or as many available. absolutely, 25, 50, 75 point movements are on the table. as i mentioned, all options are on the table but most times has been focused around that 50 or 75 point discussion. manus: garfield reynolds has been tracking the story. he is our mliv team leader. the audience -- i would i would say he has done is given himself max optionality. >> very much so, manus, although it is a conditional optionality because even with signs that some inflation pressures might be easing, they are still very committed to raising rates to the levels they had previously said, 5.5%.

the swaps market has been expecting the rbnz would go on being the home of the developed world's highest rates. they confirmed that and that they expect recession. that's a pretty hawkish take in the middle of a pretty hawkish set of central bankers. manus: he really is. the question is just how high do we go? and where do we rest. let's talk about the equity market. i started the conversation around the bond market, where dreams went to die, but the equity market got a jolt yesterday. do you agree with morgan stanley that the risk premium is in the death zone? that's a fairly dramatic statement, isn't it? >> i've been pretty skeptical that the relative resilience of equities can continue. one of the building blocks for that has been that the u.s.

economy, and a lot of economies as well, have ended up being surprisingly strong after four percentage points plus of rate hikes. and so far, too, part of the problem for bonds is that resilience is extending. you look at the services pmi overnight. the problem is that means the fed is going to go higher than anybody expected. it's going to stay there for longer than people expect, until it is sure inflation is back in the bottle. for the moment, the economy is giving it a number of green lights. go for it. take rates as high as you think you need to, because the economy is not rolling over yet. now the difficulty of equities is that you have bond yields popping up. so that magic, or not so magic, 4% level. that means equities need to factor that in to their discount levels. that is what is causing equities

to rollover because a 4% yield is seen as being not a sustainable backdrop for companies. manus: well, it is just so hard to decide where to go between walmart and home depot. i suppose the reality of what is going on with new home sales imploding, and yet still, nobody wants to believe there will be anything other than a no landing. there is 10 months to run. garfield, thank you very much. i'll leave it there. now it was a speech in poland. president biden warned president putin that he can never win the war in ukraine. this was after the russian president used to state of the nation addressed to say he is suspending his country's participation in the nuclear arms reduction treaty with the u.s. our recruit is in warsaw covering the president's visit. oliver, could you happy with me.

in terms of the rhetoric, both sides now discussing this nuclear pattern, russia stepping away from it. what do we know, is it absolute that russia will lead the pack -- leave the packet? -- the pact? >> there is a lot of excitement when the word nuclear is bandied around. putin was very clear, this is a suspension, not a withdrawal. what is it it, the nonproliferation agreement, the only one between the united states and russia that limits the number of nuclear arms each nation can have to 1550. it also imposes inspections to make sure there is compliance on these. these were suspended during covid. in january, the united states said russia was not allowing inspectors in. this is more of a signal than a massively meaningful movement. later in the day, the russian foreign ministry said they will

observe the rules of the treaty until it expires in 2026. this treaty also does not cover the battlefield nukes, the concern of the worst case of what could be used in ukraine. manus: what we're trying to understand is where is china? wang yi talking about the position of china and russian ties being rocksolid. we now understand from that xi jinping is preparing to visit vladimir putin. is this a peace negotiations for the ukraine-russia war, or is it an enabling visit to fund the war? is that a big risk for china with u.s.? >> i think this is an open question, and very interesting to see unfurl over the next couple months. as you say, wang yi is in russia. yesterday he met with members of the security apparatus. today he will meet with lavrov.

you mentioned the relationship being rock solid, and also to promote mutually beneficial cooperation in all areas. you get this sense china is positioning itself as a alternative leader to the u.s.-led world order. but also coming to the table and trying to be a neutral broker on this ukraine deal the roadmap of which we will apparently get on friday. it seems china may be changing where it is positioning but we will see what we get from lavrov and wang yi later today. manus: oliver, thank you very much. all on the ground in warsaw. hong kong will give vouchers to cut the tax rate for first home buyers, all this as they seek to lift the economy out of a pandemic slump. the secretary revealed the moves in a speech outlining the latest

budget. jill is in hong kong. there are a number of surprises. i just wonder which one stands out for you? $5,000 of vouchers. does that shift the dial for anybody living in hong kong? >> let's talk about those vouchers because i think that was the biggest surprise today. a lot of economists, most of them in fact, thought hong kong was done with that spending program. look at the rest of the world moving on from that sort of stimulus program. but it featured front and center in today's budget. ultimately, what that contributes to is the city says it will continue to run a fiscal deficit this year, another surprise for economists. we were thinking the city will return to at least a slight surplus this year after running a deficit the last several years or so. to get back to the vouchers,

what is a little unusual, and we're seeing disappointment among analysts we're talking to. several people were hoping today's budget will talk about foreign talent and how you reposition as an international finance how began after three years of border closures. yet we didn't really see too much in the way of new financial incentives for foreigners. there is a new visa program that was announced last year, but that was the centerpiece of the city's leader john liu during a big speech last year. we are still sifting through everything and seeing what else may be in there to sort of build that attraction. that talent attraction peace, we did not really see that today. manus: let's see how it plays out, jill disis in hong kong. usually when you hear that mckinsey consultants are coming to see you, it sends a shudder through most organizations.

they have a roadmap for downsizing, for every organizational restructure. you have heard, physician, heal thyself. this is exactly what they are doing, cutting 2000 jobs under the banner titled project magnolia. to give you context, this is the biggest pullback in jobs at mckinsey ever. 45,000 employees. just to give you some background on this. in 2012, you had 17,000 employees, by 2017, 2018, 28,000. so there has been this explosion to 45,000 employees. and the cuts are going to come from the non-client servicing teams. this is very much everybody else who is not at the front of the office with the clients. this probably means they will

have to do an awful lot more of the groundwork that is done by many assistants, preparing a whole variety of collaterals in front of the client. revenue for 2021 was $15 billion, the assessment is that it will be higher in 2022. this all comes under bob stenfeld's new leadership at mckinsey. all these tech companies and banks are changing a narrative, amazon, microsoft, goldman and morgan stanley all downsizing in a variety of jobs and areas. okay, we're going to return to the equity market and discuss what triggered one of the worst days of 2023. that surge in treasury yields spurred a selloff, we on bloomberg. -- we discuss on bloomberg. ♪

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>> equity markets are really pricing that outcome now. and secondly, as you say, you are getting quite a high return and committing assets with much less risk. overall, the biggest market at the world, we're looking at a flat return. we have been preparing non-u.s. markets for some time, but even then, we think absolute returns will be relatively modest. manus: goldman sachs chief global equity strategist peter oppenheimer speaking earlier today in hong kong. that was after the worst day for u.s. stocks so far in 2023.

investors realizing the fed is nowhere near ramping up the war against inflation, let alone the pivot. morgan stanley says the equity risk premium has entered a level known as the death zone. the risk/reward between equities and other assets is now very poor. frederique carrier is the head of investment strategy at rbc wealth management. a great deal to chew on. let's deal first of all with oppenheimer's view. flat in the u.s., go forth beyond those hallowed shores of the u.s. for better returns. are you setting sail beyond of the u.s. for better equity returns the rest of the year? frederique: morning, manus. we are seeing opportunities in several regions. even in the u.s., overall, it is important to say we are neutral global equities. we think we are in a trading

environment where we will oscillate between wild optimism about the economy himself allowi -- and soft landing to big concerns about the fed. to be neutral equities this year is the way to be, there are opportunities. in the u.s., we like stocks which are likely to have a catalyst which is not discounted in share prices, such as biotech, which can benefit from positive news flow or m&a activity. we like china h shares, we think the reopening has been underappreciated by investors. the traffic in the nine largest cities, for instance, is back to pre-pandemic level. 80% of pre-pandemic levels. the reopening has been broader and faster than most expected. and earnings are going to follow that road. we also see some opportunities in japan. domestic stocks, where the sea

change in corporate behavior with companies putting up prices for the first time in decades. so there are some opportunities, particularly outside the u.s., but we see some in the u.s. as well manus: it sounds as if we're just going to have to dig in and the a lot more active and specific in terms of where we find the return. let's extrapolate the china narrative, because you make it clear, it is underestimated. we have seen such a tremendous reopening bounce in the equity market. we have given a little bit back. i've asked several people best, from a positioning point of view, is there much more fun float to come into china via various commodities then we have seen, and add a second winter the china story? frederique: we think that is possible. clearly, geopolitics is always a consideration. tensions between the u.s. are

likely to continue with restrictions on chinese technology and the like. that might weigh on sentiment from time to time. however, we see some opportunities in china, h shares in particular. we like the consumer sector. we calculate there is an equivalent of $3 trillion of savings which have been accumulated over the last three years during these various periods of lockdown. not all will be put back in the retail market by the consumer, but some of it will trickle through. we see some attractive values in the consumer sector, also in health care, where there is demand and also, government support. manus: frederique, one of the narratives we are trying to divine is whether there is an devolution from hard landing to

soft landing. one of the things that set out was in the data yesterday on new home sales, typically this causes angst, down 12 months in a row for new home sales. the optimist in me says this is the fed slowing the housing market without breaking the u.s. the skeptic in me says this is a red warning sign. how do you read, new comp sales down 12 months in a row, record decline and prices slumping? frederique: we think there is a risk that the fed will continue to increase interest rates perhaps beyond what is currently expected. the fed is hardwired to kill inflation. it is bad for its reputation if it stops hiking rates too early. if inflation reignite, it is bad for the fed members' reputation,

so the institutional bias is to try and stamp inflation both. these are warning signs. we agree the economy has not reacted as it has in the past two this huge increase in interest rates. we have had more than four basis points of increases in the past. economies in the u.s. and elsewhere have been a lot more resilient than the past. however such high increases are likely to start having some impact. and we're seeing signs of softening in the labor market. and elsewhere, in the number of job losses. they are starting to increase from a very low base, only a little, but they are increasing. the hiring of temporary workers is coming down. these are signs of some softening. manus: we have got to see whether these miniature red

flags that are flickering really begin to turn into something more malevolent. thank you very much. frederique carrier, head of investment. coming up on the show, presidents biden and putin make major speeches about ukraine a year on from the russian invasion. we bring you the very latest right here on bloomberg. ♪

manus: let's get you some first wart headlines. simone is with me in doha. >> new zealand's central bank has raised rates half a percentage point, slowing the pace of tightening but signaling further hikes will be needed to tame inflation. the reserve bank lifted its main rate to 4.75% and issued forecasts showing it peaking at

5.5% this year. the leader of northern ireland's democratic unionist party says elements of prime minister rishi sunak's post-brexit deal are not acceptable. he made the criticism after meeting with a hardline group of pro-brexit lawmakers from sunak's party. the prime minister is currently trying to win support for his reforms. citigroup's jane fraser has been awarded $24.5 million in pay for 2022, making, her the only major u.s. bank ceo to receive a pay hike. in her first full year on the job, she was granted $5 million in salary plus stock awards under $20 million, and total a 9% increase on the year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm simone foxman and this is bloomberg. i should note that fraser's pay

is still below many major u.s. ceos. manus: we will see you next week. simone foxman on her travels from doha. she will be with me every day and a couple of weeks. quick snapshot of the equity markets and commodity markets. you are seeing asian markets catch up with the worst day in the united states in 2023. peter oppenheimer talks about a confusing equity market outlook. focusing on the dollar. wages in australia taking the aussie down a third of a percent, and natural gas in new york dropped. this is bloomberg the eagle has landed. that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game? yeah, it's what we do with xfinity 10g. it's like, you know, the best network imaginable. what the heck is that?

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manus: it is "bloomberg

daybreak: europe". i'm manus cranny in dubai on the stories that set your agenda. asian stocks slide, tracking wall street's worst day of 2023. investors price in higher rates before today's fed meeting. president biden says vladimir putin will never win his war in ukraine, as the wall street journal reports xi jinping is preparing a visit to moscow. the mining giant cuts its dividend after profits drop, amid wavering demand, echoing its rivals at bhp. what's going on at danone? we have breaking news from one of the biggest dairy companies in the world. in the fourth quarter, like for like sales peaked comfortably at 7%, the bear market was looking for 6.9%. in terms of guidance, this is where it begins to become

interesting. 2023, 3-5%, the estimate is 4.0%, but the issue for danone's rising food prices. that is what boosted topline revenue growth. the fastest sales growth in more than a decade. sales rose overall in 2022 by 7.8 percent, a comfortable beat. pricing, want to understand why your yogurt is more expensive? pricing is up more than 8.7% and did not dent tremendously on the volume, slipping barely .8%. it's a big turnaround time for this company. inflation is at a 40-year high, we will keep you up on the breaking headlines from dan one in terms of guidance for economic growth for 2023.

so, we are worried that the fomc minutes could be slightly hawkish. that could implode the field of disinflation, which the equity market has believed in for some time. recovering ever so slightly. nasdaq is up an eighth of a percent, recovering from dreadful pricing scenarios yesterday as the short end of the curve went bid. goldman says confusing equity market outlook. morgan stanley saying you could have a drop of 26% of equity markets in the u.s. in the first half. u.s. equity markets are pricey. europe is stabilizing, down .25%. to the bond market, if you understand that field where dreams go to die, it is in the bond market. quite literally imploding, the best month since 1990 at the start of the year, don, toast. we have lost almost 3% in bonds,

the bloomberg index has dropped by nearly 3%. unwinding virtually all of the rally at the start of the year. let's see with the pc and fed minutes due to the field of dreams, which is the disinflation. natural gas breaking the lowest level since 2020, and the aussie down a part of a percent as we saw wages come in later, invigorating the view that maybe the rba will have to be just as punchy. let's leave the assets for a moment. to the geopolitics of the world. president biden had words for russia in a speech marking the one-year anniversary of moscow's invasion of ukraine. >> a dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease the people's love of liberty. brutality will never grind down the will of the free.

and ukraine, ukraine will never be a victory for russia. never. manus: he is speaking in poland after the president used his state of the union address to say russia is suspending participation in a key nuclear treaty. all of her truck is in warsaw on this story. good to happy with me. strong rhetoric from both sides. what do we know about this nuclear pact? it is called the new start, what is it, and what is russia threatening to do? oliver: the new start is the only nuclear pact that remains between the united states and russia, the two biggest nuclear powers on the planet. russia has said it will suspend its participation. putin repeated it twice. suspend, not a withdrawal, he made this clear. it caps on number of nuclear weapons each country can have to

1550, which is still quite a few. it also imposes inspections to make sure there is compliance. however due to covid, there was suspension of these inspections, and russia in january the united states said, was not complying to begin with. there is a signal more than a huge step. the foreign ministry said they will observe the nonproliferation clause until 2026, when that deal expires. we should note, it does not touch battlefield nukes which is the real concern in ukraine. manus: that is the threat level in the rhetoric from putin, at all means in our disposal, that was in the autumn. china's role in this war, is it going from a protagonist and supporter of russia to one of a theoretical peacemaker? can that be believed? wang yi said russia-china

relations were solid as a rock. oliver: that comment was yesterday. later today, wang yi will meet with lavrov, the foreign minister. we are seeing seemingly a slight shift were on the one hand, china wants to lead the world order in opposition to the united states led world order, but then on the other, saying it can be a neutral broker. we are supposed to get the peace roadmap they will put out this friday. it's been met with a lot of skepticism. it is hard to say how there is any avenue for peace that would satisfy both russia and ukrainian territorial integrity. we also see reports from the wall street journal that xi jinping may go to moscow in april or may. i think their role in this whole conflict is evolving fairly rapidly. we have a lot more learned today and see whether xi will in fact

come to moscow. manus: let's see what comes from that. oliver crook in warsaw tracking the present. joining me now is georgina wright, director of the european program at institut montaigne. thank you so much for being with me. here we are, two very powerful speeches. very potent in their symbolism. if i was to say to you which is the more important speech for this war, which was it? georgina: actually, the easy answer is that they are very different. you have basically two speeches on either side in this war. you had joe, who was keen to say we are going to continue to support ukraine. and we will continue in our military and financial support, and our political support.

this was important because of course, we are now one year into this war and lots of people are thinking, well the united states continue to support the way it has? and you had putin who was interesting the whole of the russian duma, saying the west provoked this war, having intensified this war, the west was trying to undermine and be in opposition to russia. and barely mentioning ukraine. it was very much centered around russia and russian survival. this is where we are at this point in the war. you have ukraine defending itself against russian aggression, and russia believing it is more about -- about more than just simply invading ukraine. manus: we are looking at images of vladimir putin addressing his audience, with his open appeal to the billionaires and oligarchs to return to mother russia and bring their money home.

but in terms of delivery, the u.s., they have the symbolism of biden shaking hands etc. with zelenskyy, but what would be a significant progressive upstep from the u.s. in this war supporting ukraine? georgina: zelenskyy has been clear on what he wants. he wants sophisticated weaponry to target russian ammunition, and he wants planes. this is not a decision biden can take alone. the president will want to make sure with allies, that they are making sure there aid is more or less on par. joe biden did make some announcements in kyiv, he announced 450 million dollars of further military support. we don't know exactly what that is but will get further details this week. and $10 billion i believe, to rebuild ukrainian energy infrastructure which has been hit by russian missiles. manus: what is your best

understanding of what china will aim for? will they be real arbitrators, do they have the power to deliver any kind of negotiated peace? or is the risk much more prescient that china enables a continuation of putin's war in ukraine? georgina: china is certainly powerful, but i think it is difficult to know exactly what china is trying to do. they have signaled their is going to be an important visit today between russia and china. and china wants to play this role as a peace facilitator. whether or not russia and the ukraine and up around the table depends very much on kyiv. at the moment, kyiv feels there is no security guarantees russia with respect. russia believes it is in this, and that now is to soon as well. it really depends on russia and

ukraine. but of course, china will try and play that role. the question is what other role china will try to play. tony blinken, the u.s. foreign minister, was very clear that he believed china would potentially support russia. we will have to see whether that pans out, and what the west's response will be. manus: the other piece that oliver covered for us was the suspension, not withdrawal, from the nuclear pact. significant? georgina: again, it's a signal. but oliver is right, this is not mean they will now just ignore the treaty and do things differently. but it is certainly -- putin has been saying since the start of the war that we are a nuclear weapons state. but again, we need to caution

that and really see what will happen over the next couple of months. manus: georgina, thank you very much, it really looks like we are in for some sort of long-haul. the senior fellow and director of the european program at institut montaigne. rio tinto slashes the divvy, after profits fall more than expected. we have the details right here on bloomberg. ♪ marthat actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number.

manus: rio tinto profits fell more than expected, sumter prices in everything through iron ore and copper weighing on the giant. , so what does all that mean?

billies had their profit dropped 32%, slashing their dividend. martin is in shanghai, this is worse than billies. >> we're talking about rio tinto. the results came in a little below expectations. and it was largely in line with a lot of other results from big global mining companies over the past week, from bhp, and others. last year was a strange year for commodities. near record prices in the first half, a big slump in the second half, and a lot of cost inflation on labor, energy and other inputs. that meant profits have fallen from previous records. both bhp and rio today talking up prospects for china. the rio ceo today saying he

thinks the real estate sector which has been in a long slow down is now in a pretty decent state in china, which is a rather optimistic tone. and also rather upbeat on europe's economy as well. manus: what about the outlook? because this ultimately will be the dictator of where we go with some of these big miners. they were the buyback darlings along with the oil companies, that looks to be a question now. >> that's right. it looks like to some extent, rio is going from being a cash cow to something more modest. the outlook very much depends on the commodity markets. at the moment, there is some divisions between bulls and bears. on the one

when with a strong dollar again, we've seen both copper and gold retreats significantly off the back of that. what about china? we're very confident in the reopen being in the growth phase of the reopening in china. however, the market is a little bit concerned. why? because metal inventories have continued to build. and i think but that's to be expected because, you know, the decline in metal inventories, you typically see in the last several years is because people were not out visiting their families. they were in the factories working, which then created demand for copper. so we're not worried about it. let's see what happens to copper inventories come late march, april. we think they're going to start to drop over. what about what happened in europe? that's the big one for oil, really big warm weather shot drove gas prices down sharply, particularly in in europe. we have to, you know, dropping all the way down to. gas prices, the us collapse from

nine all the way down to two. so that lower gas price due to a warm winter put a lot of downward pressure on oil. but you've already paid the price for it. so we look at that. yeah, the only persistent one of those negative shocks is the strong macro data in the us. our economists think that the core inflation picture is going to be relatively benign. and as a result, you know, we continue to be very positive there on the road preaching the commodity research world. jeff currie from goldman sachs, the global head of commodities. coming up in the show markets, we're going to wait for these latest fed minutes. that's after the rba. anz raised rates by 50 basis points and signals inflation is still too high. more on bloomberg. when i went to start researching different roofers in my area, i was overwhelmed. it was so much information at once. then we got on and it was just

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one of the thorniest and best in questions is just how much in savings is enough to retire comfortably? and which markets and sectors are going to provide the returns to power? the gains in 2023? it's kind of who shares the findings from the latest and life pulse survey of professional and retail investors. how much money do you need to retire comfortably? according to a bloomberg survey of professional and retail investors, it's definitely in the seven figures. about a third of those surveyed pegged the number at $3 million. another third out of 5 million, about 10% identified just 1 million, while another 10% said 20 million. their expectation is the financial markets won't get in the way of building that nest egg. more than 80% of these market participants see the balance in their retirement savings, rebounding from last year's brutal market sell off. vanguard says the average for one k was down 20% in 2020 to. and it won't be familiar names

like apple, amazon and microsoft powering this expected recovery in investment portfolios. instead, market watchers believe a different group of companies will lead the market over the next three years. for returns generated outside the us, a majority of respondents to asia as the best bet, followed by europe. latam got less than 10% of the vote. for now, retail investors are more bullish than the pros. almost two thirds of individual investors say they are 100% confident that they'll have enough money to maintain their current lifestyle once they retire. while only 40% of professional investors believe that this uncertainty is likely a reflection of an unsettled job market, where the new financial services firm or tech company seeming to announce layoffs daily. i'm obviously going to be here for a very long time. if you want to retire in the middle east, in dubai, you're going to need more like 20 million bucks. it's got to fit. on the latest findings of the bloomberg and life pulse. not enough of them live in

how much we acceleration possible? good morning. >> the market is getting worried these minutes could show that a re-acceleration in the fed rate was possible. both mr. and for learning even though they are nonvoters told us this week they pushed strongly for a 50 basis point hike instead of the step down to 25. that did not show up as dissent in the meeting. due to the fact they are nonvoters. there was more of a compromise around keeping the phrase ongoing rate rises are needed in the statement do this kind of division -- due to this kind of division. going into this meeting there was a lot of week data.

we had a week inflation print as well. you cannot take out that we might get a dovish surprise actually or maybe a possible discussion of the circumstances needed for a pause. remember in that q&a, powell did not deny there was some kind of discussion around a fed pause. manus: treasuries had the best start to the year since 1990 so we were all in on this dissent in inflation. how did the bond market -- it got shook up yesterday with strong data. which part of the curve shifted the most? >> the entire curve shook up. to year yields, 10 year yields, and five-year yields hitting new highs. my eye is going to be on how

this two year yield reacts to the fed minutes but don't forget we have the core pce coming friday. that is the fed's favored measure of inflation. we have seen upgrades on the street around the calls for the core pce metric from goldman sachs and ubs. have your eye on that as well. manus: well let's see. as you say, all shook up across the curve. valerie tytel for the latest on the macro. bloomberg markets is up next. i leave you with that thought. waiting for a hot button print on the pce. meantime, fomc minutes could shake things up. ♪

anna: