manus:

on estimates. they say they've raised the 22 guidance multiple times, didn't they, last year? so just keep an eye on that. and in terms of the rest of the news flow from the free cash flow, it's going to be above 6 billion. now, when it comes to the insurance industry, we have axa delivering that numbers. this is what we've got for you in terms of the actual numbers we have raising the outlook for 2023. they are going to do a 1.2 billion by back on line profit. matt estimates the firm expects to surpass its key targets of 2023 in the strategic plan. they're going to announce a new strategic plan in february 20, 24. so repurchase a buyback. i mean, buybacks are phenomenal. facet of the u.s. equity market

dynamic so far this year. axa 1.1 billion and there you go. that is the top line for them. a dividend 10% on a year earlier. okay. we're going to catch up with thomas bobble a little bit later on in the hour. in his words. it's the consequence of a pertinence of a transformation at axa, which enables a deep change over the past number of years. we'll talk to thomas a little bit later on. okay. what have you got? what changed in the past three weeks? must have been a heck of a lot since jay powell stood up and used the word disinflation 15 times. it came out of a meeting where they didn't use it at all. there's a divorce between his perspective on disinflation and what the rest of the room were talking about at those minutes. and this is what you've got. equity markets are rising more so to do with nvidia, really. if truth be told in vedere has

said, look, he has helped us have a cracking rerating over the slowdown in sales. and to that end, you are seeing the equity market take flight from that. despite the new narrative from the fed. one could say, which is we're going to step down the scale and pace. so this was about redefining the cadence and recalibrating the size of hikes that will come. so to that end, if you have a look at the bond market, futures are closed. sorry, cash is closed, futures are open. so that's why we've got two year notes. futures year prices rising and falling ever so slightly. is this recalibration or what? are you ready for two more hikes of 25 basis points, three more hikes of 25 basis points. and then are they done? that is the mood in the market. oil travel is a little bit higher. we've been falling for six days in a row, so we break of trend there that despite the dollar rolling down this morning ever so slightly, the words from the fed are that we have an insufficiently restrictive environment.

stockpiles are growing in the united states in the oil market. it's going to be tougher to hit the dollar level. i put the dollar in the dollar in there. i think we have, don, by an eighth of 1%. we've had four weeks of gains, by the way, on the dollar and the korean one. of course, the bank of korea pausing for the first time, rates at three and a half percent. and they will, you know, remain restrictive if it's warranted for a consider ruble period of time. everybody standing around the world ready to give us their piece of the action on the fomc minutes. president biden's comments on russia after suspending the nuclear treaty. so to those minutes and the fed hikes more of them on the horizon and the almost all official agree to slow the pace of tightening. let's get to valerie sites out valerie. good to have you with me this morning. the key takeaway. they obviously are more focused on inflation rather than disinflation. no irony there. and three weeks. yeah, that's right. the minutes actually didn't even mention the word disinflation,

which i found surprising. but let me take you back to the top three points for me. a few wanted a 50 bip hike. that that that means that mester and bullard didn't find many friends among the fomc council pushing for a 50 basis point. they also didn't mention a pause. and as you mentioned, ms.. the minutes didn't even mention the word disinflation. there was more of an emphasis on maintaining the restrictive stance for longer. and then lastly, they really focus on the upside risk to inflation. remember, going into this meeting, we had gotten a few soft prints and there was no mention of what happens if there is a downside risk to inflation going forward. they instead focus squarely on the upside, risk to inflation. remember, in between now and these fed minutes, we have gotten a hot cpi print. so these two taken together do suggest that there is room for those dots to shift higher at the march meeting. well, that could certainly be something that re reinvigorates the upper the upper end on those yields. now, the vice chair, lael brainard, departs the fed this

week. so who might replace her dove hawk? do we know there was a note out from the wall street journal that floated two names, two economists names. they both worked for the biden administration. but i want to talk about janice eberly. she co-wrote a piece in 2019 that found a 3% inflation target, would have been better in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. so it's clear to me that biden is looking for a dove to replace that influential lael brainard seat as vice chair. okay, let's keep an eye on those names. valerie, thank you so much. valerie title in london. well, president biden says vladimir putin has made the world less safe by suspending the participation in a nuclear treaty. but the us president president doesn't believe that it signals the russian leader will use atomic weapons. i have not seen anything. we're not seeing that where there's a change in his posture, what they're doing. the idea that somehow this means they're thinking of using

nuclear weapons, international, but not boasting, there's no evidence of that. let's bring in our senior editor for bloomberg. in singapore. it is bill faries. bill. i mean, what is the latest? how assured can we be that the president has, you know, real surety that nuclear option is not on the and troop movements that would indicate some sort of shipped. it is important to note that president putin said he is suspending participation in new start, he is not quitting the treaty. but it is a sign that the whole regime of nuclear proliferation is breaking down as we approached tomorrow the one-year mark of this war in ukraine.

manus: the issue is what would a theater of china be? xi visiting putin, is this about the theater of being the peacemaker or the war protagonist and enabler, from the chinese perspective? >> it is very interesting that vladimir putin made this announcement while the chinese foreign minister was in the country because china in particular has been extremely focused when they talk about the war in ukraine. they talk about their opposition to the use of nuclear weapons, and their opposition to the targeting of nuclear facilities. so, it will be interesting to determine what the chinese reaction to that decision by vladimir putin is. but in terms of the peace process that we have seen, we're still waiting for details on

what china's proposal will be. i think there is a lot of skepticism in the u.s. and europe that they can be an unbiased broker. president xi jinping has spoken with vladimir putin several times since the war started. he has never spoken with ukrainian president zelenskyy once. i think china's widely perceived , while not overtly supporting the war, having russia's back at some level at least politically. manus: thank you so much, that is bill farris with the latest on the china--- china, u.s. and china-russian relations. last week, chatgpt, you have had companies banning it in terms of employees using it. nvidia last night said ai computing, the demand will help

lift their forecast and data center strength. it also helps them weather the pc slowdown, sales in the three months to april were about 6.5 billion dollars. that beat analyst estimates of 6.35, and when it comes to ai, they have announced to their own ai cloud service. this is where they will team up with oracle, microsoft, alphabet and google to offer the ability to use nvidia gtx machines to do ai processing via a simple browser. i wonder if i can use chatgpt to come up with harder questions for ceos? do you think, steams will now run chatgpt for bloomberg journalists? what a wonder. maybe i can just run chatgpt and that i won't have to think of

questions for ceos. officials are set for more rate hike increases. we asked jane foley, is there a floor under the dollar? we will have a chat, on bloomberg. ♪

met with putin in moscow, calling the relationship between the two countries quote, solid as a mountain. rishi sunak hinted he is seeking legal changes to the northern ireland protocol, something the eu has previously been opposed to. the u.k. prime minister was responding to criticism of his proposed trade agreement from the leader of northern ireland's unionist party. two economists told bloomberg it

would unleash tens of billions of pounds of business investment for the u.k. a washington post report says meta-is preparing for thousands of job cuts beyond the 13% of its workforce fired in november. separately, bloomberg learned italy is investigating the facebook parent for an alleged 870 million euros in unpaid vat. meta says it disagrees with the idea that providing access to online platforms should attract a tax. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm simone foxman, and this is bloomberg. manus: simone, thank you very much. if you are a diabetic, other than testing yourself with a puncture every couple of hours, would you where an apple watch? which has silicon photonics

that help monitor your glucose level. the project is called ee five, and has been running 12 years at apple. this could revolutionize the maintenance for diabetics. what we've got is an ability by apple to track glucose in your blood via the watch. and it's all to do with silicon photonics. it was 12 years in the making, and could certainly cement apple as a powerhouse within health care. one in 10 americans have diabetes. of course, you have patches you can use. but this could be one of those revolutionary moments in health care. now, in terms of whether you need to recalibrate from the language of the fed. the federal reserve has said rates are insufficient -- the market is insufficiently restrictive at the moment, that

has had a recalibration effect. a few favored large tracts of 50, almost all back to 25 basis points, that reverberated across markets not least in some of the commodity markets. you can see, we have copper down there, it is 9% higher on the year, so it is all about the china trade. the dollar giving a little back this morning, but it has rallied four weeks in a road, adding 2.5%. we will catch up with the ceo of axa in just a moment. to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. i've been maintaining. the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with golo, i've not only kept off the weight but i'm happier, i'm healthier, and i have a new lease on life. golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did!

golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. (soft music)

manus: good morning, it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe".

i'm manus cranny in dubai on the stories that set your agenda. fed officials envision more rate hikes to curb inflation, though most back a slower pace of tightening. stocks and futures rise, with the dollar snapping two days of gains. president biden says he does not say vladimir putin using nuclear weapons, despite halting russia's involvement in an arms treaty. chipmaker nvidia jumps post-market after saying the push into a i will help offset sluggish pc demand. intel slashed its dividend 66% to preserve cash. so, the indian officials are hosting the g20, the finance chiefs are there this week and are looking to avoid using the word war in any joint statement when referring to russia's invasion of ukraine. why, is the question one must ask.

linda is on the ground at the g20 finance ministers meeting, haslinda, good to happy with this, how significant is this? why is it significant in and of itself? haslinda: india is trying to draw a fine line between where it stands. it wants to play a leadership role, it does not want to rock the boat, so to speak. so, by choosing not to word the -- use the word war, it is trying to stand that neutral line, but it shows how geopolitics are coming to the fore, making it really difficult for the g20 to talk economics and finance. of course, not lust on participants here is that we're back in the first year milestone of the ukraine war. at 2:00 p.m. local time, we will hear from janet yellen, the u.s. treasury secretary and some of

the u.s. allies, not yet clarified who they are, but they will do a presser to impress upon russia to take accountability for all the issues the world is seeing. high inflation, high energy prices, the disruption in global supply chain. i had a conversation with the indonesian finance minister who said the year after the war started, it is even more difficult now to have any discussions. and if you are looking or hoping to see a communique, don't hold your breath, it will be really difficult for member nations to come together and agree on the issues today. manus: but of course, india has a lot of steak in terms of the amount of russian oil that is coming into india. not least also, the talk of russian oil to the uae. let us broaden the conversation.

he will speak to finance ministers and catch up on the political side of things. what do you think the main themes apart from ukraine and russia will become or will that just be all-pervasive? haslinda: it has to be about debt restructuring. remember, 60% of the developing world is already or soon to be in a debt crisis, not to mention middle income countries which are on the verge, some of them at least on a debt crisis. if they fail to address debt restructuring, we could see -- so it is essential to address the issue. front and center is china, china has become such a large part -- has become one of the largest creditors in the world, definitely a large creditor to developing countries in asia, latin america and africa, the likes of zambia and sri lanka. host nation india warned china.

china is pushing back, saying if china were to take a haircut, it once the likes of the world bank and other entities to be the same, something the world bank has categorically said no to. discussions are in a bind. we're not show if it -- sure where it goes from here or if there will be progress. manus: debt sustainability and default was a big issue in davos in terms of ministers from emerging economies. we look forward to the coverage, haslinda almond, global ambassador in india. we will catch up with the economy minister for spain at the g20. that is nadia calvino, joining haslinda later today at 10:00 a.m. u.k. time. we have the latest analysis on russia showing that the downturn last year was just a fraction, almost 10% collapse of what was

predicted. instead of russia's economy shrinking, that was less than 3%. this is as the u.s. and its allies imposed the mother of all sanctions on the country, following the invasion of ukraine. let's bring our russian economist, he is with me on a daily basis in the dubai office. the mother of all sanctions, can we say that they failed, in and of itself, or how would you describe the imposition? >> i think they didn't fail. they undershot expectations for three good reasons. first of all, the energy sector of the russian federation has been sanctioned very lightly, and by design, because the sanctions coalition tried to impose costs to russia but not lose excess energy.

the second reason is that the sanctions coalition was not as broad as expected. it is broad, there are a lot of companies that imposed sanctions on russia, but still countries generating more than 30% of the global gdp are considered neutral. and have not joined at the sanctions fully. the last and underappreciated reason is you can't destroy something twice. the inflated expectations of sanction effects have under accounted for the cumulative effects of sanctions imposed on russia since the invasion of crimea. so, in many cases, they have not been able to accept global markets. they were destroyed earlier than this latest round of sanctions. manus: and yet, it is very unlikely that those 30% of

people who have not joined sanctions will suddenly come over the line, unless there is a new redline in the war. if you look at the economy, what are you projecting the rest of this year? we heard putin make his address, he wants repatriation of oligarch money. that was an economic point of view, how will the country fair this year? >> russia is historically good at generating resilience but very bad at growth. looking forward, we see that russia is able to get inputs to import a lot of equipment needs from neutral countries, india and china. but it is unable to substitute the amount of foreign direct investments that have been flowing into the country earlier. all those plans predominantly were western. this means russian growth going forward will be low. we project the next five to 10

years, russia will on average growth less than 1% a year. this will be a much smaller country in 10 years than it would've been. manus: the near-term impact will build over time essentially is my take away. alexander, thank you for being with me, that's our bloomberg's economics analyst on the very latest economic outlook for russia. coming up on the show, we will talk to the nato secretary-general jens stoltenberg live from brussels at 9:30 u.k. time. thomas buberl, the axa ceo, announced a share buyback following the announcement of full-your earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪

and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a

check out angi.com today. angi... and done. introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, it's easy to make your home an a and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number.

manus: axa has unveiled plans to repurchase one point one billion euros of shares. the paris-based insurance giant announced full-year underlined earnings that met estimates and said it expects to surpass one of its key financial targets by the end of the year. the ceo is thomas buberl, thank you so much for taking the time this morning to join me. a buyback, raising up the dividend, tick and tick. we have done a lot of buybacks in the past number of years, is this now a permanent component of the payout policy for shareholders like me? i presume it is in my pension somewhere. thomas: first of all, it is the thought of very good work and a very good result, and also a

clearview that we have a strong operational performance. and we also have a very confident outlet. buybacks for us are part of the capital management strategy. we always have a look, is it better to invest into? the business? or is it better to buy back shares. this is a decision that comes every year. the board of directors has taken the decision to go for a buyback. this is a true sign of confidence of where we are today. manus: the debate about prices and whether we are going to enter a disinflation period, or whether inflation will continue is critically important on pricing. your perspective on pricing for the rest of 2023, are prices going to rise, are you going to raise them more? thomas: we've certainly seen a

lot of price increases already. and seen inflation being very high. i don't think he will going forward to see inflation being two digits. nevertheless, you will see inflation being around four to 6% because there are still elements of price increases coming. a lot of companies have not yet put all the necessary price increases through. you will certainly see a revival of china post-covid, and also a significant increase in consumption, which will drive energy prices up again. i certainly look at this year keeping in mind that prices will continue to increase. manus: just to square away some other aspects on the business for the market. do you have exposure to the californian floods? thomas: we have exposure

everywhere in the world because we are a global insurer. what we always make sure is we have a little bit of everything, not to be exposed to much to it. that is what you see in our results, we have had a can a year last year of record of record natural catastrophes, and protect their, with hurricane ian that was one of the most costly hurricanes. but you see, we are withstanding those natural catastrophes very well. manus: i should have asked the question in a slightly tighter frame, which is, what is the exact exposure on california? can i ask, on turkey and syria, a human tragedy on a daily basis for us. to what extent do you have a material, financial exposure in turkey or syria? thomas: absolutely right, this is a very big, tragic and every

day more injured or dead people are discovered, which is very tragic. fortunately, none of our employees has been affected. when we look at the exposure, we do have it, but it is not material. manus: your net income fell 8% to 6.6 8 billion. i understand that in part that is to do with the mark to market on some of the invested assets. this will be perhaps on the bond exposures, and a number of assets. talk me through where the biggest mark to market valuation risk is. listening to the fed overnight, in the minutes, they talk about an insufficiently restrictive zone. where are we going to in rates? thomas: the key driver is the reevaluation of our assets in our balance sheet. we are investing roughly 18% in fixed income.

when interest rates rise, values of bonds go down, that is what you see in the difference between underlying earnings and net income. going forward, i do expect rates to remain at the level we see, probably going even a touch higher. but if we think about how long this will be, i believe it will be quite a long time. because bringing inflation down to the famous 2% will certainly take a lot of time. manus: so, higher for longer. do you see rates getting to 5.5 percent, 6% in the u.s. and staying there through the first quarter of 2024? what is your higher for longer? thomas: to my mind, it will still slightly increasing. to be seen how much. but when we think about when will we be at the famous 2% of inflation, i don't think you

will see that before q1 2025. manus: that's pushing it out a little bit. obviously, at home in europe, skirting recession, not as brutal as everybody thought. how has that manifested at axa? is that through pricing, writing business, how is the less brutal collapse of europe impacting you? thomas: it is absolutely true, measures have been taken both on the central bank side, and the governmental side. and we see today that we have had so far, a soft landing. in a way that we see inflation increasing, we clearly see also the social issues around rising energy prices. nevertheless it is not a disaster. this is something that we see in

any business now, there is a revival of confidence. and people are looking forward in a positive way. this is also what you see in our numbers. we have had a very good year. we're looking forward in a very confident manner. nevertheless we need to remain, i would say, prudently optimistic because many of the decisions have not yet hit the real economy. if you take, for example, the rise of interest rates. for this to really get into the economy, we need to see the cycle of repricing credit and loans. what we have seen certainly, that banks have tightened standards. there is less volume available today for credit facilities. so going forward, we will see the transmission into the real economy. and also, more of the negative effects. so we need to be prudently optimistic. for me what's important is to always keep the eye very closely

on the ball to see where the next surprises coming from. manus: this is about the long variable lags. people have forgotten how long it takes for it to hit. how much higher do you see? let's close off on this. you see no topping out in the u.s. before the first quarter in 2025. what is your view from the ecb? many are saying inflation will be stickier and the ecb will have to do more than was originally anticipated. are you a 3.2 five buyer of rates, or 3.5? thomas: the ecb will have to do more. what you have seen is a phase in which governments are spending a fair amount of money. in a situation in which you have tight labor markets. this will go straight to inflation. to take care of this element as well, i believe inflation will continue to rise. and rates will have to continue

to rise. this q1 2025 would also be the target date for me in europe. manus: thomas, a lot happened in three weeks for the fed. you and i will have to weather a few more quarterly reports between now and 2025. i hope we've got the stomach for it. buyback and dividend rising at axa. another italian oil company delivering fourth-quarter numbers. this is ineon, fourth-quarter adjusted net profit 2.5 billion, estimate was 2.6, production lighter than estimated at 1.6 two, market penciled in 1.7 million barrels per day. that is one to keep an eye on. it is amiss in the first quarter for eni in terms of the actual net income.

so, we will keep an eye on that. $2.5 billion. by the way, it is up 47%, i want to reaffirm to everybody. 47% year on year. a lot of that is to do with oil prices. and of the refining and marketing chemicals business, profit of 378 million, this is where the miss was. the estimate was 438. as you can see, in the past year, up 5%. coming up, what do economists have to say about the post brexit trade deal on northern ireland? would it boost to u.k. economy by billions of pounds? we will investigate, on bloomberg. ♪

manus: a post-brexit trade deal

with northern ireland could unleash tens of billions of pounds in business investment for the u.k. boosts in hand, the government with more assistance for tax cuts, that is the opinion of two economists. if rishi sunak can strike a post-brexit trading arrangement. lizzy burden has been tracking the story for us from london. a lot hangs on rishi's ability to bring the unionists on the side and do a deal for the u.k. as a whole. >> the logic behind these economists' arguments is that brexit has added uncertainty, so if you could remove some of that, you could boost it business investment and boost growth. kallum pickering says businesses since the pandemic have built up a cache war chest of 100 billion

pounds. they are not investing it partly because of a constant threat of a trade war with europe. so if you take that away, you could potentially unlock some of it. i also spoke to a j.p. morgan asset manager yesterday on radio, and she said there were be a significant boost to business investment, and it is the secret sauce that would unlock some of the other economic woes in britain at the moment. productivity and real wages. what's interesting is she is an economic advisor to the chancellor, jeremy hunt, so he will be well aware of the potential benefits of getting a deal. the two caveats i'd make our that brexit is impacting the u.k. economy, not just via business investment but also through the labor market and trade. and business investment is not just impacted by brexit, it is also via the tax environment, for example. but if jeremy hunt could boost growth, he would potentially have more room to make tax cuts,

as so many in his party are begging him to do. manus: yep, and he just does not have the fiscal ability to do that. let's see if it is enough to save sterling. lizzy burden there in london. we will take a deeper dive into the economic and political challenges facing britain. that is at 930 u.k. time, in london. there you go, it is "bloomberg u.k.". plus interviews to keep you focused, the anglo american ceo, wpp from the world of advertising, and the nato secretary-general. ♪

as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. (jennifer)cast business. the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was

for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release, i've gone from a size 12 to a 4. before golo, i was hungry all the time and constantly thinking about food. after taking release, that stopped. with release, i didn't feel that hunger that comes with dieting. which made the golo plan really easy to stick to. since starting golo and release, i have dropped seven pant sizes and i've kept it off. golo is real, our customers are real, and our success stories are real. why not give it a try?

anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe -- "bloomberg markets: europe