>> a very good morning.

the stories that set your agenda , butler, asian stocks slide after heavy selling on wall street on friday. traders scale up the rates following the hot inflation here. the u.k. on -- the u.k. on the cusp of the agreement in northern ireland. plus the missing banker is cooperating. an unspecified probe into chinese authorities. it has unnerved the business. it is persistent, it is pervasive and it could provoke any of your -- provoke an even more egregious response from the federal reserve. this is what the pce on friday did to the short end of the altar. it blew up the short and, 15 year high.

they are not in excess of the highs that we saw in november. let's look at the chart we have for you. this is the propulsion at the short end of the curve. let's have a look at stocks. three weeks of losses, money is coming out of bonds. you have the doors being blown off in terms of the data. that took the s&p 500 down. you are looking at a real moment of truth for risk. if the fed needs to do significantly more in terms of rates, we are talking about 50 basis points. european equities are flat. let's see what impact that has

across the asset classes. they are breaking through the pace they saw in november. let's look at the bonds. a nice little peekaboo on the dollar as well on friday. two year yields traveling higher again this morning. oil is up as goldman begins to step back from their view that you will have a deficit in the second half of the year. they are same $107 is where you can go. is he channeling his here? let's get to the reporters around the world. they have the prime minister in the united kingdom. we have new information in

china. the latest results from nigeria process -- nigeria's presidential election. she will meet the prime minister but she has yet to finalize a deal for northern ireland. what will it include? let's get to lizzy burden. is there really going to be a deal? what is the choreography? >> it has been two weeks of false starts. the county is just home to the royal castle of windsor. they are expected to finalize a deal. what it wants from the deal is to ensure that it fixes the practical problems on the ground.

there will be a cabinet meeting after that. the prime minister will then have a joint press conference before the prime minister goes to the house of commons in parliament to deliver a statement. we are not expecting a vote on a deal today but when it does come, it is expected to be a three line with. he will be hoping he can say he is the man who finally got exit done. >> the question is what is it that will bring these brexiteers on side?

that is the crux of the matter. >> there is a range of views within the democratic unionist party. he was photographed walking down the street giving a big thumbs up to the cameras. another potential -- another potential fall could be boris johnson. this could be a scrapping of the northern ellen protocol deal. liz truss, the other former prime minister was involved in writing up that bill when she was foreign secretary. this civil war within the tory party might not be over yet.

>> we are on brexit watch. that was busy with the latest. we will speak to the opposition labor party. we will talk about the outlook for the u.k. economy. stay with us. assisting authorities with an investigation. this is a moment of revelation, isn't it? the market was deeply unnerved by the disappearance. it doesn't really settle the nerves. what do we know? >> not settling the nerves at all. very thin on details. the stock is up today in hong kong.

a little bit of reprieve there. a very short statement to the hong kong stock exchange. they are assisting authorities with an unspecified investigation. we don't know whether or not it involves the company or the investment bank he is chair of. this goes to show how opaque the legal system is here in china. the indication from the company is they have not been asked to speak to authorities yet. they have not managed to make contact with the investment banker. another step in this investigation, not calming nerves but at least we know it is what we thought, and investigation assisting

authorities. >> i love your piece which is on the web at the weekend. the hedge funds, you cannot fool them. get out the door early. talk me through in a slightly more finessed way. >> first in, first out. that hedge fund is the favorite trade. a lot of these u.s. hedge funds went full bullish mowed into the china reopening. they are starting to pair those positions which is incredibly interesting. a very interesting time to do this. we haven't had those long-term institutional money managers chase the fast money. it was the mpc, the key political and economic beating

in beijing. what the fast money is telling us is they are not waiting around to see if there is any stimulus on the economy. anything to show that china is going to revive consumption. they are not hanging around to see if that will happen. taking money of the table almost as quickly as they put it on. >> it made it so hard on my reading list. elections in africa's biggest democracy have glitches. that may have consequences. jennifer is there on the election. how much of a delay have we experienced?

>> we are experiencing a little bit of outages right now. that has been the theme for this weekend. a lot of the frustration for a lot of voters here in nigeria. in terms of delays, that was the story of the day on saturday. some people were reported that units did not open until midday. the people were not able to vote until early sunday morning. at this point in time, almost two days after people started voting, we only know official results from one of 36 states here in nigeria. we are not that much closer to knowing who was going to be the next president. in terms of this state that we do know, this is a candidate from the ruling party, it was declared as the winner in that state in particular.

there is a number of other states we are watching for you. particularly where i am here in lagos state. just in terms of what i am hearing on the ground here and also what we're hearing from across, there is a lot of frustration that this has taken so long that there were issues for voters. they are really just waiting to see who the next candidate will be. >> keep the faith. make sure you have packed enough to be there for a couple of days. we will keep you up-to-date as those results come in. one set of results delivered by warren buffett. the u.s. economy could be facing a bumpy road ahead.

this is an interesting one. there are a billion different things that they do. two of the key businesses buffett is telling americans to keep the faith. don't worry yet. they really did overshadow the wider operating profit for the year. >> the record was there. these two parts were a little bit later. this is a long-term bet against

america. talk to me about buybacks. this is important for us. he had a ringing word or two for those people that run the country. >> it does tend to stay away -- they do tend to stay away from making these controversial statements but this was in a shareholder letter. to quote what he said, if you think buybacks are harmful, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or silver toned demagogue. the characters are not mutually exclusive. this followed comments from joe biden where he is calling for taxes on -- and buybacks to be quadrupled. and taxes on billionaires to be stepped up as well. strong words.

bernie sanders was all over this. talking about billionaires and how to do well on tiktok. coming up, the fed should move quickly to get information back to target. we talk markets and control on bloomberg. ♪

>> move quickly now. reestablish credibility now. more game theory, less econometrics.

there is a certain amount of demonstration to markets if you will quickly. quick to make sure we know who's in charge. james bullard urging the fed to move quickly. this is my guest. it is fascinating. he does not vote. i get what he says. move quickly, reestablish credibility. here we are. the fed is going to have to do quote a bit more. how much more aggressive do you think the fed might have to be to move toward six or 6.5%?

good morning. >> this is all about the fed credibility now. the market expectations, this is where there was a gap of 200 basis points or so. it is still around 60 basis points. look at the chicago fed's own financial index. the fed needs to work even harder in the face of this credibility to persuade wall street. course the fed has an inflation problem. they tend to overshoot what

their models have been telling the fed. some january figures do have some seasonal quartz to them. for our portfolios, we expect the fed will raise two more times before later in the year. the fed hikes much more and those cuts are going to take much longer to manifest. >> that was the risk to your call. i am drawn to your overall narrative. not very people -- not very many people admit they exist. you are worried we are going to have a pretty brutal slowdown. >> it comes down to 2% inflation. if the fed will be credible, it

has a problem. they are insensitive to interest rates. in order to counteract them if you will, the fed would have to engineer a much deeper slowdown then it wants to do at this point in time. >> what does this do to the dollar? does it create a floor in the dollar? >> it is important to look at what the consensus is for the u.s. dollar. the consensus has a chronic bearish bias. if you consider what the outlook is for the u.s. dollar to depreciate in a sustained manner, it would walk -- it would require differentials. so far, those dynamics are far

from medifast. emerging market central banks are in the process of rebuilding. >> one of the other parts of your narrative is the commodity complex. they think the view is that the market swings to a deficit after june. that thesis has been challenged. for refilling the spr and the gas prices in europe, you see a commodity complex but how quickly is that? how do you take exposure to this commodity thesis you put forward? >> right now, the transmission mechanism is very much into broader inflation pressures.

the global markets and global economy has been grappling with that for the better part of the last 12 or 18 months. they are asymmetric upside risks, particularly for energy. the rebuilding of commodity reserves. they think about the rebuilding of the strategic petroleum reserves. they will continue to be an issue there. in other areas, grains, indonesia announced the need to really take control of the processing of nickel. elsewhere, look at strategic commodities such as high end, commodities. >> always granted get you on board for the first reaction. coming up, was it a lab leak?

a new report on the possible origins of covid-19. right here on bloomberg. ♪

the wall street journal considers a liberatory leak as the most likely source of the covid-19 pandemic. the department was said to have made that with low confidence. joining me is michelle cortez. thank you for being with me. this has been thrown around many times. it came from a lab. why do we -- what is different about this report this time? >> we have been talking about

this for the past three years, wondering where it came from. everything boils down to a lot of information did not get used on the ground in china. in terms of now, that would be the fact that the energy department is saying they have got some new information or they are telling the white house they got some new information. as a result, they changed what they are saying about the origins of covid. they used to say they are undetermined. there is this new information that they are convinced that it came from a lab leak scenario. we don't know what the new information is. this is a wall street journal report. the idea that something new is coming out three years into the pandemic is something we are following very closely. >> thank you very much.

there was michelle cortez. the latest from the wall street journal on the origin of covid-19. we will catch up, tom is on the road. tom mackenzie is on the road. when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose.

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>> good morning. here are the stories that set your agenda.

asian stocks slide. heavy selling on wall street on friday as traders scale up for higher rates on the inflation data. abrasive breakthrough. are we on the cost of an agreement in northern ireland? the prime minister faces obstacles. the missing banker is cooperating in an unspecified probe by chinese authorities. the latest turn in a story that unnerved the business elite. 15 years ago was the last time we saw two year yields at this heavy level. that tells you something very strong about the trajectory from the federal reserve. let's have a look at those two year yields. these are the breakevens.

there you go. they are the two year yields. we are up for the fifth straight week. it is persistent. it is pervasive. trying to provoke an overreach from the fed. equity markets worship. the s&p 500 losing at nearly 3% on that third week of losses. they are slightly shaken in the equity market. you are seeing a little bit of a reaction across the european futures this morning. this is what we have few across the assets. pervasive inflation. the deflator coming in. higher rates, it just takes the oil market down. the dollar is up. let's get the first word is in

hong kong. >> the u.k. anti-e.u. are said to be preparing to unveil a post-presence, in northern ireland. the agreement will be announced after a monday meeting between the prime minister and the european commission president. i deal will seek to face trading arrangements governing northern ireland. the nigerian ruling party has won the most votes in a small southwest state from saturday's election. voting in africa's biggest democracy has been marred by glitches and a new electronic system. the election agency will give another briefing at 11:00 a.m. local time. and hong kong is reportedly looking to scrap it's messed mandate as soon as early march. indoor and outdoor requirements maybe removed at the same time

but masks would still be compulsory in hospitals and other high-risk places. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. the international monetary fund is urging banks to stay the course in the fight against inflation. she spoke exclusively to bloomberg. it is christina george eva. all as russians were casts a shadow. >> right now, stay the course. it is not the time to debate whether we have the right inflation target. that would swing us away from the main purpose, central banks to be back -- bring back price

stability. it is important for investors that we return to price stability. as we make progress, to see inflation going in the right direction. there can be a discussion around how the future of central bank targets looks. it is true what we are seeing is some structural factors. for example, moving away from cost being the only defining of where you place production and also, security of supply. if we are to provide some backup for security of supply that would increase cost of production. that would have significance for the level of prices.

right now we have to win the fight against inflation and restore price stability as a foundation for growth. coming up and the show, spacex is getting ready to launch. we will bring you the live shots right here on bloomberg. ♪

discussing the future of connectivity.

tom mackenzie his on with the special guest. " very pleased to say i am joined by the director general of the gsm a. met joins me. let's start with this. the backdrop is still very challenging for your industry. the concerns about inflation, labor costs, the weather continues in ukraine. what is the sentiment most your members? >> it is a good question. the first is the resilience this industry has provided. we have man-made catastrophes. this is where connectivity has never been more important. we see the need for it, the pandemic is another great

example. on the others, we have this investment. we need to build up and continue to invest. we need help doing that. otherwise, society will start to crumble. >> lead zero in on that. $1.5 trillion in investment in the network. in the infrastructure. where you're going with this is your pitch the likes of netlist, the likes of alphabet, they need to pay more for this infrastructure. something the european commission is now pushing for. >> from a fairness perspective, if you participate, if you benefit from the digital

economy, we should pay for it. we won't be able to be successful if you're not paying for the connectivity. it is like putting a stamp on an envelope. if you send huge containers every day, it is different. when we do our calculation, it is five or six of these huge companies that take up 60% of our networks. we welcome the commission here in europe to try to understand how best to do this. we will be on stage in a couple of hours to describe more of this but we will see how europe can call back some of its lost power. >> this will compel consumers to pay twice. talk to us about the consumer.

there is a big focus on enterprising. consumers are under pressure. >> if you allow me to go back to your question, it will be the same as airbnb. there will take the pain is twice, from two different individuals. i don't think that is unreasonable at all. here is the energy crisis, soaring prices, unemployment. that is something we are aware of as well. it is creating a lot of opportunities for innovation. we feel hopeful. especially when we see the effects of 5g. >> talk to us about the investment around 5g and the network space.

there is a good path to it. what is exciting is how we will monetize this. we are expecting what 85,000 people? more than 50% of the participants are coming from sectors or industries outside of that. they still don't see what is going on in telecom. you have automotive. all are here to understand telecom. what you think will have the most impact. >> we have an announcement called open gate. that is as big as gsm. we will all open up our networks

for these providers. 5g will give us an additional $1 trillion in economic value so the whole of telecom by 2030 will do huge money. quick thank you very much indeed. here in barcelona, back to you guys. >> have a great week. spacex and nasa are apparent to launch the international space station. you have a real global crude

here. we are counting down. this is launch pad 309a dragon is the craft. it will be launched on falcon 9. the launch takes place. we have crew from all over the world, a russian cosmonaut. an astronaut from the uae on board. ableist -- it will spend around today if we are linking up with the space center. we are counting down to the launch. let's listen in. our procedure is being enacted to reverse all the progress we made this evening.

they are getting the astronauts that helped. until that point, everything was looking good. the ground team had reported that issue -- i believe it was around t minus five minutes. at this point in time, the launch escape system is still armed. the crew continuing to look comfortable there inside dragon endeavor. quick the vehicle is safe and proceeding.

>> this is dragon, copy. we will be sitting here waiting. >> it will be a very methodical process to offload the falcon 9. you can see some of that oxygen billowing off still. that will be part of the sequence. this is as they work their way through the nominal scrub timeline. this is a 50 minute offload. we are in a scrub situation, under two minutes and 30 seconds from lunch. >> there is a small ground issue with the launch of dragon. those are live pictures of the astronauts on board.

this is bloomberg. ♪

elections in africa's biggest democracy have been marred. there has been glitches with eva desk glitches with the electronic system. what additional results do we have? what benchmarks can we look at? >> there is a lot of frustration. let me start with the positive. on the one hand, this new system

was meant to be a breakthrough for democracy. verifying voter identity. on the whole, the fact that this was introduced as being largely -- the concern is how much of an issue it is contributing to this delay in finding out who the next president will be. some of them did not know how to use this technology. we don't know a lot of this results from the election. this is the result of one state of 35 that is a small southern state where the ruling party

candidate was victorious there. there are a number of other states we are waiting for. we will figure out who the candidate is going to be, that is going to secure enough votes to become president. >> there has been some great quick takes in terms of currency shortages or production. infrastructure. what is the biggest issue in the economy? >> the biggest issue at this point in time that is creating a hindrance for everybody is this shortage. the local currency. over the weekend, that was nonexistent. from people we are speaking to, the fact that there is not

enough currency to pay businesses and taxi drivers, anyone really creates a hindrance to all business as a whole. some people can't even get fuel. there is a fuel shortage in addition to this. they can't even pay for the fuel. this next president is really going to have to deal with a lot of frustrated nigerians. also, international people who are paying attention to this economy and paying attention to the multiple exchange rates here. that creates an issue for how people are getting paid. it has presented an issue for us here as well. that is going to be top of mind for this next president. it is something you can't ignore when you're on the streets here. >> all right, we will be with you through the day.

let's get you up to speed with the business flash headlines. >> bloomberg has learned the u.s. held talks recently with three asian nations on the global semiconductor supply chain. the video meeting of the so-called group discussed an early warning system to ensure steady supply. we are told export controls were not on the agenda and that no companies were involved in the meeting. hsbc is reported to be looking for a new global headquarters. the sunday times says the bank is considering between 400000 and 500,000 square feet. they're looking to cut global office-based by 40% compared with pre-pandemic levels. and warren has urged shareholders to keep the faith in the u.s. economy after berkshire hathaway reported

weaker results in some of its key businesses. operating earnings fell 4% in the fourth quarter as higher prices hit this railroad. buffett says he is yet to see a time when it is right to make a long term but against america. that is your bloomberg business flash. >> bet against america and you could be taking a pretty big bet. we have been waiting for dragon endeavor. that launch for now has been scrubbed the kennedy space center, we will update you as soon as we get more on the reasoning why that has happened. if you are a bloomberg subscriber, hop on your terminal, we are on live go. we have all the details. you can listen to mission control. we have a pretty stacked day.

the reaction, the first reaction we will bring you to this breaking news, it looks like there may be a deal to the brexit protocol with northern ireland. rachel reeves joined the team. that is in the next hour with anna and her team at 7:25. we will speak to russell hardy. of course, we have this movement in the oil market. we have the flows going and from russia to china. let's get the view on how tight that market is. goldman still says opec has this amazing pricing power without hurting them. and of course, we will be cashing croatia's national bank governor. you have copper coming down by 1.7%. hedge funds are bailing on their

big come along, alva positions. this was the reopening trade that seems to be coming undone. equities in china just a little bit softer. it is a different complexion for u.s. equity markets. this is one of the worst weeks of 2023. we will bring you more coverage on the prospect of a brexit deal right here on bloomberg throughout the day. we are left westminster for reactions first on bloomberg. ♪

anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets: asia europe. i am anna edwards live in london. mark cudmore