tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg March 1, 2023 1:00am-2:00am EST
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i'm dani burger in london. manus cranny is in dubai with the stories that set your agenda. manus: asian stocks and commodities higher after factory output hits the highest level in a decade. u.s. futures are flat. bloomberg goldman shares fall the most since -- glue met goldman, as the ceo fails to persuade investors. plus, the ruling party. bola tinubu is the winner of nigeria's presidential election amid opposition protests. dani, very good morning to you. it is the bund market that balked at inflation. we are going to a stratospheric level. hello, tryptich. dani: it is beautiful to start
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the morning with poetry, but the bond market takes off. we have a chart of what bund yields did yesterday. searching higher yet we are praising a 4% peak for the ecb, but it is the other side of the atlantic, now pricing even odds of a rate cut at the end of 2023 for the u.s. manus: at one stage we were talking about a rate cut of 60 basis points by the end of the year, looking at that chart you have bunds the highest since 2011, 2's at the highest since 2008. goldman sachs is 2.75 in a couple of weeks. dani: i will say, citi says there the rush to judgment. they suggested taking a few ticks off the table. but the huge story, the other hot data is coming out of china. let me show you what equities
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are doing because we are responding to factory activity, housing activity that confirms that the china bull's back. the msci asia pacific up 1%, being led by hong kong, the hang seng up 3.5%. hong kong tech faring even better. giving a left to the entirety of the world. s&p 500 was negative, as soon as we got china data, it flipped, barely into the green but nonetheless it did flip. we are moving higher now across the globe. manus: one of the things i saw this morning was from citi, they said euro stoxx 50 has $4 billion worth of new shorts piling in on european stocks despite the dividend story. let's take a quick look across asset classes. ozzy turns around, we have a high beta reaction. growth was slowing in was really a, inflation suggests the rba
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may have a pause, but it was china that delivered a higher beta boost for the aussie dollar. nymex is up .6%, on the back of high pmi and yuan takes a ripper. one thing i would say is back in the noughties, in the 00's, when rates were at this level for the dollar, it was 10% higher. dani: i will expect that in the next few minutes. manus: google is on my chart. dani: let's talk to reporters well manus googles the charts. let's talk about better-than-expected china pmi's . goldman sachs' investor day and the result from the nigerian presidential election. china's manufacturing activity recorded the highest monthly improvement in more than a decade in february as factors reopened after the lunar new
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year. for more, let's get to jill disis, what is the strong recovery in china telling us about the state of the economic rebound? because we had assumed there would be a rebound given reopening but is this stronger-than-expected? jill: this is much stronger-than-expected. this is the best month since 2012 for manufacturing activity month on month. what this tells us is everybody has been really worried for quite some time about how lopsided this recovery was looking off the back of lunar new year in january, everybody was saying spending is picking up, people are traveling more and are not as worried about catching covid or lockdown. spending went up on travel and going to movies but we did not see recovery elsewhere. it is not just manufacturing data today which is good, but also home sales in february picked up for the first time in several months.
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that was the other concern when it came to this uneven recovery, people spending on big-ticket items like homes and cars and we are seeing recovery there. all of that together is hitting a really good picture for the economy. we have still got some months ago before we feel more comfortable how this is stabilizing, but for now we're seeing much more robust recovery than in january. manus: are there any clues in this data about what the mpc might deliver as it meets next sunday? jill: it is good news for them. right now, we're expecting a new gdp target for 2023, most economists are thinking that will come in above 5%. how strong that is depends on how aggressive the government wants to go setting goals this year. but this at least gives them a powerful message to bring into
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that mpc meeting, saying china's back, the rebound is happening. we're also expecting additional appointments as the government reshuffles where xi jinping further asserts control over what the central government looks like. all of that is good news for beijing's leaders at least. manus: jill disis, gathering policy. goldman sachs gave shareholders a report card of ceo david solomon's performance at the investor day. they also hinted at further dismantling of its consumer business. here is david solomon talking about that unit. >> there were clear successes, but there were also clear stumbles. on the direct consumer businesses, we found them more challenging. we lacked a certain competitive advantage, and did too much too
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quickly which affected our execution. manus: charlie wells is with us now. did the goldman executives accomplish what they set out to do with the change narrative around the bank's stock? was that amia cola? -- mea culpa? >> click goal was to move this story on an approved the share price. to project confidence and also highlight the asset and wealth management unit which is worth 2.5 trillion dollars. and really show that the bank is listening to customers. we have tape from john waldron, president and ceo. >> most of our clients are very concerned about inflation, particularly corporate clients. they see it being more persistent in their business. the market is more complacent in terms of how it trades inflation. that is a disconnect that has to be a dedicated over the course
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of the year. >> so a focus on listening to clients on a difficult market. that was not necessarily enough to calm shareholders yesterday. dani: certainly not, 3.8% slide. also talk about this weirdness with their consumer division. that raised a few eyebrows. >> this confused analysts yesterday. the bank is trying to save the consumer unit is doing okay and could break even two years, but there is the phrase strategic alternatives, and people familiar with the matter saying some elements of that consumer unit could be sold. dani: perhaps conflicting things if they are sticking with it and selling it. bloomberg's charlie wells there. bola tinubu was declared the winner of nigeria's presidential election. the candidate one 35.2% of votes , but the result of being disputed. jennifer zabasajja joins us now.
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freshly back from the region, breakdown the results. >> this came a few days after people started voting. the results came in after 4:00 a.m. local time in nigeria. bola tinubu, who is the ruling party candidate of apc won 35% of the votes, but that is 8 million people who voted for him. there has been a lot of frustration with the way these results and this voting has been coming out. there were issues on the initial day of voting with the technology system. there were issues tallying votes and getting results out. a lot of opposition parties saying there were discrepancies in what they were seeing online and what the national electoral commission was announcing. we heard from bola tinubu earlier this morning, excepting this official declaration. he will be officially accepting rule as president-elect later
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this afternoon. in his speech, he talked about a lot of things we have been speaking about, namely issues with the local currency, debt. he talked about education and what he is planning on doing to provide the economy and try to get opposition parties on board with him. manus: this is all about stability though, isn't it, and that is what markets want to see. great work over the weekend, you enter the team, bringing those elections to us. do you get a sense that this is a pump in the road or something more substantial, contesting the election, is a theater? or is it a risk? >> that is what we were seeing tuesday. markets were a little unsure of this. if you talk to people on the ground, as we did over the past few days, there is really
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concern about how this next president-elect will get the country on board, especially when you consider a lot of the concerns the other parties have in the way this election was carried out. so, he's going to have his work cut out for him when he is officially sworn in later on this year in may. he is going to have to unite a country that is all over the place at this point, not really succinct in what they think is best for the country moving forward. and are dealing with issues on a day-to-day basis that is affecting business. from an international investor perspective, they are going to need to see early on that he is committed to promises he has made, and that he made earlier this morning. we have seen previous presidents making promises and of course, not always delivering. this is really something to pay attention to, manus.
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manus: it is "daybreak: europe". let's check on the chinese stocks, we have had manufacturing surging to the highest in a decade, bolstering the recovery narrative. the impact is pervasive, there is production and new orders. you have seen a nice boost for high beta. the aussie taking a rubber on the upside, copper and iron ore also doing quite well. let's have a look at the aussie dollar in a moment. but i can assure you, it is on the up. stephen gallo is with dani and myself, global fx strategist at bom capital markets. i have been spinning a yarn for a month or so, warning about the downside risk of the g10 high beta bloc, are you still holding
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onto your morning as the aussie rips it around? good morning, mr. gallo. stephen: this is a surprise. the data is definitely a surprise. i thought significant upside of the pmi's was a relatively low delta risk. if you look at the performance of the high beta currency bloc in g10 over the last three months, i don't think the downside in those currencies has primarily been driven by weakness in china. it may have been a factor in the sluggish recovery in china which seems to be shifting to a more powerful phase. but the vast majority of those currencies have been weighed on by voluntary -- vulne rability in the housing market. sticky inflation, uncomfortably strong wage gains. in some cases, you might say
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wage price spiral. i don't think those risks have gone away. if anything, if we are to take the pmi's from china at face value, what that indicates for potentially global pressure on our limited capacity to grow during non-inflationary coat, those numbers can be scary. short-term still, i would opt for a defensive posture. i wouldn't be adding aggressively either way until we see february down employment -- unemployment data at the united states because that will dictate the outlook for the fed. dani: i just want to jump in because you are talking about short-term convictions. is it possible in this market do have a long-term view? given what we have seen to start the year, can you have confidence entrees you want to
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have on more than a couple months at a time? stephen: long-term, the dollar is still quite expensive. let's just say from a medium-term perspective, beyond three months, you want to be a dollar seller. but we are in uncharted territories when it comes to navigating this inflation dynamic. it is not just investors, it is policymakers as well. if you accept that the period of ultra low interest rates and inflation prior to 2020 has created a condition today where we have less capacity to generate noninflationary growth. and there is going to be more volatility in macroeconomic data in trade and someone, then you want to be cautious in the short run until you see clear evidence
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that policymakers are winning this battle against inflation. we don't have firm evidence of that yet. that is why i point to next week's labor market data out of the united states. if we are really seeing slowdown in the labor market in the united states pointing to weakness in demand, that is the time to load up on high beta currencies. defensive short-term, but i would not add aggressively either way until we see more u.s. data. manus: we're going to return in a moment about europe and the u.k., but if you look at what the rates market is pricing in the u.s., this is what we have on the screen. we have gone from rate cuts of 60 basis points by the end of the year to practically zero. how much of this narrative is putting a floor under the dollar for now? stephen: yeah, to a degree, it
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is. i turn your attention again back to the global risks, excluding china for the moment. the global risks related to central-bank tightening, limited capacity to generate noninflationary growth, underinvestment in growth capacity, vulnerable housing markets. how these will react to central banks that are still hiking. and what this china data means for that dynamic? i think that is more important. that is more important than the u.s. curve, what is priced into the fed putting the floor underneath the dollar. what is putting the floor under the dollar is the fact that we are in uncharted territory without policymakers navigate risks on inflation. dani: i've got a question on the euro but we have to go to a quick break. stay with us. stephen gallo, global fx strategist at bmo capital
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe". we had hot data coming in in inflation for europe yesterday. we had france, spain and the rate differential story, how is that going to be driving the euro from here on out? we are looking at the blue line two years forward for germany and the u.s. let's get to stephen gallo, global fx strategist at bmo capital markets. stephen, are you inspecting yields to be moving higher, driving in the euro area versus
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the u.s.? what is that mean for your outlook for the euro? stephen: short-term, one of the things that has caught my eye is the fact that we're seeing rate differentials at the longer end of the curves move in favor, so to speak, of higher yields in germany and the u.k. relative to the u.s.. that is partly a risk off story in the sense that sticky inflation pressure in europe, more work for the ecb to do might actually magnify the preference for north american assets. some north american assets over europe. we spoke about this in the last segment, we go back to this sticky inflation narrative, be lagged impact of rate hikes on the domestic economy. arresting wage gains in the
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labor market. dealing with very tight labor markets as central banks seek to bring inflation down. these are the primary risks investors are focused with as they pertain to inflation. if that were to continue, i would say that's a worrisome development for the major european currencies. yes, by all means, the ecb i suppose you could say catching up with north american central banks on policy rates. that is a somewhat supportive factor for the euro, but ultimately, i would like to see the ecb more relaxed about the inflation outlook before i go overweight european assets. manus: that's a fairly balanced view. briefly, on the pound. i like what you say, short on substance from an economic
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perspective but you are long on politics. translate that to me on a justification to buy sterling, and what bandwidth, where would you buy and where does it to out? -- top out? stephen: near term, you want to buy around 1.20, maybe slightly below. we will test 1.25 later in the year in sterling. that is more of a dollar view. sterling is a high beta currency and derives its beta fundamental from its balance of payments fundamental. if inflation is not cooperating through the course of the year, if the bank of england has more work to do to arrest the labor market, it is not good for u.k. assets in general. if on the other hand, inflation is well behaved and consistently moderates, and we see tightness in the labor market come out, the fed pauses, that could turbocharge sterling and we may see levels above 1.25, but your
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end targeting a test of 1.25 in cable. manus: looking forward to the turbocharge. thank you very much, our guest this morning on global fx, stephen gallo, strategist at bmo capital markets. the hang seng tech index is ripping it up, up 6% at this stage. looking at a pretty impressive reaction on the back of those pmi's, and the belief that we're on the trajectory for growth in china. coming up, we discuss the global economy and inflation outlook with standard chartered's head of european
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daybreak europe". dani: pmi fueled rally, china drives gains by asian stocks and commodities after factory output hits the highest level in over a decade. u.s. futures are flat. the shares fall the most goldman sachs ceo fails to persuade investors that the bank has a ready solution for its troubled consumer unit. plus, nigeria's presidential election is finished. good morning to you, all about china moving assets this morning. talking to stephen gallo saying it could be scary, it could just feel the next round of inflation. manus: he talked about a powerful new phase, but there has been a powerful reaction. in the high beta currencies. let's have a quick look, the aussie dollar turns it around.
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even though growth has slowed. to 0.5 percent, and inflation -- it turns it around. it is the beta of all high betas. the crude oil, up 0.6%. and the yuan had one of the worst weeks and five months last week. of course, the reopening, highest pmi in 10 years manages to cause the dollar to weaken. i would just say to you in the 2000s, the dollar was probably 10% higher than here when we were trading these kind of rates levels. dani: oh for nostalgia. you don't get enough of that. it is higher beta currencies that are driving the fx market, higher stocks that are driving the equity market. you can see that very clearly in the asia trade. everything is moving powerfully
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higher across the board in reaction to that data. if you look at what is outperforming, it is hong kong tech, up over 6%. the biggest move in two months. you are also looking at s&p 500 futures, those are flipping into the green. they did start the morning down. european futures, also heading higher in reaction to the data. manus: ok, well bloomberg intelligence has crunched the numbers. 70 billion bucks, by the end of february. a 14% jump year on year. he firms are flush with cash with a surge in oil prices. the banks are also bolstering higher rates in terms of leading the charge. >> a new phase, a new creation for shareholders. for the first time, we are committing to double digits growth. we also announced a 50% payout from 40 and another buyback. it is a new beginning for a very
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exciting period. manus: the executive chair. a little margin pressure and the need to preserve cash, make it harder for firms to sustain these programs from here on in. a key indicator will be february's euro area headline inflation due tomorrow. that comes off the back of yesterday's unexpected rises in french and spanish cpi readings. sarah hewin is the standard charter bank manager. amid the explosive moves in the short end of the curves, on these hot prints in france and germany, you have a much more measured counter attack. the component of inflation, pc cci is rolling down. explain to me why i should be shocked at all on the prints
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that we saw yesterday. sarah: i think we need to be careful about reading too much into one man's data. obviously, they were quite unexpected. i think that p cci measure of inflation has been softer in the last couple of months. that is really sort of stripping out the impact of the economic cycles. it is perhaps a truer reflection of what is going on underlying in the economy. having said that, it is true that inflation in europe is behaving, still rising compared to what we have seen in the u.s. where the peaks and inflation and headline inflation and core inflation do seem to be behind us. we are probably still in for a few more months of nervousness. the impact of the weaker energy cost is definitely going to be
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rolling through the rest of the economy. we have seen softer food prices as well. i think that ultimately, that has an impact on your services inflation as well as goods inflation. dani: despite that view, we have had plenty of houses, with goldman sachs being one of them, upgrading their view in the market data of where the ecb is going to go. they say that in may they see another 50 basis point hike. because of yesterday's data, because of hawkish language from the ecb, but i wonder how useful forward guidance is at this point. to hear christine lagarde say 50 basis points, give herself some optionality. when the data is as varied and uncertain and as unpredictable as it is, how much can we listen to hawkish rhetoric from madam lagarde and the other ecb speakers? sarah: i think they have given a pretty clear signal about what they intend to do for this
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month's meeting. 50 basis points. beyond that, the message is data dependency. that will be very much related to how the economy evolves and how these inflation pressures evolve. i think the ecb is concerned about the wage costs and the fact that in europe, labor markets tend to be slower to adjust to a weaker economic activity. we have had a very dramatic increase in ecb rates, in a relatively short space of time. they started raising rates in july. the impact of the rate hikes that we saw in the second half of last year are only going to start to be felt in the second half of this year. that has to be very much in policymakers minds as well. the risk of over tightening and driving the economy into a
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steeper downturn than is necessary, we think that inflation is naturally rolling off anyway. manus: sarah, the big macro piece of data that we have this morning is the pmi being the hottest in 10 years coming from china. bmo, we had stephen gallo. he is concerned we are entering a powerful new phase where it is difficult to deliver growth, which is not inflationary. you think we are in a powerful new phase of global inflation pressure? sarah: there is a lot that is still lingering on from the pandemic, in particular if we look at labor markets, we have very tight labor markets in the u.s., in europe, and elsewhere. so that is a feature of the current recovery, which is inflationary. is to an extent, a supply-side
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issue as well as a demand-side issue. central banks are getting the demand-side. the supply side i think will gradually recover and that should dampen wage pressures in the future. i think there are positive signs globally, the recovery in china should mean that we see an end to the supply-side disruptions. we know that in more costs and rate costs have come down very dramatically over the worst of the last 12 months. we don't really see china's recovery as being inflationary in that the recovery this time is likely to be different than previous recoveries, we are looking for a consumer led upswing in china rather than an infrastructure or property data of string -- upswing. dani: have to draw you back to europe. because manus and i have been celebrating a milestone today. the end of eight years of qe.
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qt begins today. we have the passive rolloff, 15 billion per month, relatively a small amount. will they have to update? -- up it? sarah: i think they probably will. we are looking for them to move up closer to 25, 30 billion per month they reassess, midyear. that really being part of the reduction in the balance sheet which i think is what most of the ecb policy makers want to see now. this is a very sort of gradual baby steps approached just to make sure that as we move from qe to qt, there is no disruption to the market. so far, the announcement that was going to be the case alongside the pretty sharp rate hikes we have seen have not been
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disrupted. in particular, the focus on what is happening to peripheral yields and the spreads between the periphery. so far so good. we think they probably will accelerate when we get to the second half of the year. dani: ok great catching up with you this morning. sarah hewin, thanks for joining. let's get to the first word news with simone. simone: hi, dani. 42 people have died in a train crash in northeastern greece. the collision took place in the tempe valley when a passenger train traveling from athens collided with a freight service. the train operator says 350 people were on board. rescue operations are continuing under what officials call very difficult conditions. we have a winner of nigeria's
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presidential elections. the ruling party candidate and ask governor of lagos won 35% of the vote, beating the main opposition party who took 28%. he will inherit a mountain of public debt. some opposition parties claim the contest was fraud and may challenge the result in court. u.k. prime minister rishi sunak has been embarking on a push to win support for his post-brexit deal with the eu. a day after unveiling the agreement which was dubbed, the windsor framework, sunak visited northern ireland in an effort to win votes. u.k. prime minister also addressed conservative mps yesterday evening. he says the deal is a unique opportunity for northern ireland. india is bracing for sweltering weather after already suffering its hottest february since 1901.
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it's whether office says there is an enhanced possibility of heat waves in most parts of the country over the next three months. the extreme weather poses a threat to wheat crops, which were forecast to reach a record this year. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: it is all the -- it is climate change, isn't it? simone, thank you very much. coming up, we will talk asian equities. they got a boost from the china pmi as the hang seng tech is now flying higher. asian equities are up one an and eighth. this is bloomberg.
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>> the foundation of china's economic recovery, this ranking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations, and we are also facing a volatile environment. dani: the data may be hot, but the language is still cautious. that was the chinese finance minister voicing some concern over china's post-covid economic recovery are you on the other hand, china's manufacturing activity recorded its highest monthly in men in more than a decade in february as factories reopened after the lunar new year holiday. let's get to bloomberg's china economy editor, jill. jill, what is the strong recovery in manufacturing telling us about reopening chinese economy? jill: this is certainly -- it
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was a lot stronger than we expected. i think that is giving some level of optimism to people who were otherwise worried that the economic recovery was lopsided. back in january, we saw quite a bit of an uptick in spending and travel as people were leaving their homes again. the manufacturing activity still remains pretty weak. a lot of that was because of the lunar new year holiday. this was our first big look in february at how things looked after the holiday ended. because it is so strong, i think that is helping people think, maybe there is a little bit more momentum than we originally thought. also, independent of some of the pmi data, we also saw a big jump in home sales in february. sort of returning to expansion for the first time in quite a while. that was the other component that we were all really concerned about looking at the recovery is, are people going to start spending on big-ticket
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items like homes and cars? is that demand starting to return? this is telling us that maybe this recovery is a little bit more robust than what we had seen in january. manus: pose that this translates to what we get from the mpc as they meet on sunday, whether that is about a power grab or emboldening and underpinning the economic, the reopening of china. jill: yes, there is certainly a lot to look out for once that kicks off on sunday. the first thing that we are looking out for is what the new economic goals look like. how aggressive is that gdp target going to be? is it going to -- a lot of economists think that it will probably be north of by percent. -- 5%. is it going to be closer to 5.5%? is it going to be 6%? i think that will be more
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optimistic than most are expecting, but that is something to look out for. i think we already started to seem at the party congress last fall, president xi consolidating power, installing a lot of loyalists in top-level positions. this is where we get to see how the rest of the government shapes up, who are those people in the premier role? what that looks like? how close those people are going to be as xi jinping allies. you will start to see some of those reforms take shape and get greater detail at this congress next week. manus: jill, we will watch every move at that mpc. annie, the china data is the top macro piece of information. -- dani. copper is flying high. the question is about the
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durability and sustainability of that. you can see in the top commodity block, it is copper, aluminum, steel, all the communities -- commodities that live and die on the momentum in china. dani: the most important thing to keep in mind is what happened the month prior? risk assets, the u.s. data coming in. so, no one was really position for a risk rally. you have these pieces of data coming in, and let me show you what happened to stocks. they ripped, because people are really negative on risk assets. so they had to flip positions. hstech up more than 6% for the biggest move in two months you did manus: that story was, the bulls got walloped in january. the least dirty shirt was high-yield. there is no irony in that. 1.4%.
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i red that story on the way in, you're looking at treasuries as well. across the assets, it really was quite a bruising. dani: i think a lot of folks will be happy to see the start of a new month, but it is hard to say whether it will get much better, just to be a bear i guess. manus: why don't i correct myself, 2.5% on treasuries and the s&p dropped by 3.2%. vigilante bond traders and the key equity traders, they are just nervous anyway. coming up, we will dive deeper in the nigerian election results which means, big impact on one of africa's biggest economy. right here on bloomberg. ♪
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manus: "bloomberg daybreak europe" it is. bola tinubu husband declared the winner. they won 32.5% of the votes. the result is being disputed. let's get to jen. she has been on the ground in nigeria. break the results down for me. is it a resounding victory? is it convicting -- convincing in terms of the numbers? jen: i think it depends on who you speak to. if you look at the numbers, bola tinubu more than 2000 more votes than his rival. if you talk to people on the ground and actually look at what has been happening, you might dispute that. we have heard from the opposition party, even just as soon as yesterday calling mike the selection to be canceled
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because of the discrepancies and the issues that were around this actual voting process. what we heard from bola tinubu just a few minutes after 4:00 a.m. local time when he was officially declared the president-elect was that he accepted victory, but we are going to have to to see whether or not these opposition parties stick to what they are saying and contention -- potentially contest this vote. they have 21 days to do so. the next president won't be sworn in until later on in may, but we will have to see what happens over the next few days and even hours. people were sleeping when this official declaration came through. i have just been looking on twitter to see sort of what the reaction is. it'll be interesting to see what happens on the ground, considering the frustrating point that nigeria has been in at this point in time. dani: what is it exactly that we are watching out for?
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jen: there has been a lot of talk about this postelection reaction. seeing what people on the ground react to this is going to be a real key indicator of where this moves. did we heard the electoral commission really defend the process, say this was a free, fair, and credible election. there were a lot of issues with the uploading of results. if they are not able to be convincing enough, we might hear that from voters. when you think about the ruling party candidate right there, the ruling party has been in power now for eight years. we have just been talking about the turmoil this economy is in. just being on the ground, there was a lot of young people and a lot of energized voters ready for a new regime to come in and take this economy back on track. manus: jen, thank you so much. jen with the very latest on nigeria. you are going to be working and
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working and working and working and working. we have a lot of -- a little bit of breaking news. yields are going to trade higher. what was the failure? dani: 8.5%. it is hotter than expected, 8.3. this is poor for the rest of germany and enforces that 4% peak message for the ecb. manus: highest level since 2011 yesterday. again, there will be this vortex in the bond market this morning. bloomberg markets europe is up next. ♪
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