dani: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london with the stories that set your agenda.

china says a full your growth objective of 5%, lowering expectations and the ability of that nation to stimulate the global economy. traders find little cheer in beijing's plans, but stocks and futures climb after last week's rally on wall street. pressure continues to mount on credit suisse, as long-term investor harris associates sells its remaining stake in the embattled lender. there was big relief to end the week. bostic saying there could potentially be a cause in the supper meant that there was a rally in equities. daily over the weekend saying more work needs to be done. it is this push/pull that will either be confirmed or denied over the data the next two weeks. but the dominant theme this morning is the disappointment from china. that their growth targets are

perhaps not up to snuff. what you have is chinese equities underperforming the globe. likewise metals commodities doing poorly. oil under pressure considering china is the world's biggest importer of oil, down .7%. there is the china theme and the rates theme. i mentioned relief, rates came in by 10 basis points on friday, the trajectory continues. bonds are coming in. we can perhaps rally. that 4% level on 10-year yields across the entirety of the bond sector was a nice level to bid at. so maybe some profit-taking. you are looking at to use and tends reaching a 1% inversion. we had a nonfarm payrolls report on friday.

also, we have a boj decision this week. maybe kuroda will get one less surprise in before he hands over the reigns to ueda. we will get the latest on china's growth targets with tom hancock. credit suisse in the news yet again. and we will preview some of the big fed decisions and did it with our markets reporter. starting things off in china, the national people's congress has set a modest economic growth target of 5% of the year. it is avoiding any large stimulus to spur a consumer-driven recovery that is already underway. let's cover over to tom for this. most economists were expecting a higher target. why do you think there was this cautiousness from xi's administration? >> i think there are a few factors beijing was considering. first of all, it had a big miss on its gdp target last year.

that means but target was just becoming less credible. it makes more sense to have one you can easily beat, that stores some of the meaning to the target. the second factor is beijing believes there are a number of longer-term issues it needs to deal with. reforms it needs to make. so, just pushing for another big stimulus would create more problems longer-term than it solves short-term. dani: what about the wider economy? there was this help of a china-led rebound. >> yes, it's not that china is pulling back on its infrastructure spending. but it's not going to increase it from last year, because beijing sees consumers already spending a lot more. that makes sense because the covid restrictions have ended in china. so there is a consumer and services driven recovery.

beijing does not think it needs to add to that by increasing infrastructure spending from last year. the housing market will probably improve this year but it's not going to go back to the old days of rapid growth. so the impact on commodities you can see today. this is going to be a consumer-led rebound, not as commodity intensive as previous rebounds in china. dani: copper, iron ore all down at least 1%. bloomberg's tom hancock. breaking lines from ubs, just publishing their annual compensation statement. the bonus pool for last year has shrunk. it's going to be $3.3 billion, compared to the year prior which was $3.7 billion. on the earnings call, they said we have a healthy culture on paper forms but he doesn't see a bidding war on talent. we also have his compensation,

the ceo will get 12.2 million swiss francs for last year. sticking with banking, the biggest shareholder in credit suisse for many years, harris associates, sold its entire stake in the swiss bank. for more is our banking and deals reporter in sydney. harris ends a long relationship rate what supporters does credit suisse have at this point? >> it was quite a long relationship. the harris manager had been a long time defender of the bank. if you look at the pre-gse high - pre-gfc high, it has lost 95% since then which would test any backer's faith. he has kind of lost faith. they have sold out, they owned to 10% up to last year, at the

end of 2022, then sold down the remaining 5% just this week. who's left in the stock? the saudi national bank is now the largest shareholder in credit suisse according to their website and data we have, as well as the qatari investment authority, so a couple of middle eastern funds are left holding the fort down. herro said rising rates for the bank are good news because it lets them reset their loan books and pricing better margins. that is not happening at credit suisse. so he is rotating out while they try and become a better financial institution. dani: we showed this quote earlier saying, why go for something that is burning capital one the rest of the sector is generating it?

that's our deals and banking reporter in sydney, harry brumpton. it's going to be a busy week. we have four major events over the next 13 trading sessions. they may give us an idea where rates are going considering things are so unknown. it kicks off with her own towel -- it kicks off of jerome powell's testimony in the senate. ellery, how crazy will this week be? >> it will be pivotal for micro. it kicks off with foul's testimony to the senate. does he continue to use the word disinflation? it is likely his last comments before the pivotal march meeting. on friday, we get this payroll report. the big question for the market is, is this hot labor market driving waiting patient -- wage inflation? we will be focused on the hourly earnings number. next week, cpi data. does it can h -- confirm that inflation is staying stay here?

all of this has to be march 22 fed decision. we not only get the rate decision but that pivotal dot plot, how higher will dots shift? the fed has been resistant to signing any number higher than 5.5. the current terminal rate we are pricing is close to the upper range of those dots. dani: it's a sad time for me when march madness is paying attention to the fomc not my virginia hoo's. i don't know if you like basketball or not, but that is my barometer for this march. coming up, that officials have stuck with a higher for longer mantra. mary daly reiterates support for a peak rates between five and 5.5%. we will discuss that next alongside european real estate. investors are facing the

sharpest reversal on record. blackstone, brookfield and others all deepening the property pain. we will speak to michael zerda, formerly of blackstone, later this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the fed right now should have the door wide open to a 50 basis point move in march. no need to be committed to that until we see the next employment figures. until one sees what happens in markets.

but if markets are now saying 22%, that means the door isn't open to that possibility. and there is very significant chance that that's going to be the right thing to do. dani: former treasury secretary larry summers on his thoughts of what the fed could do. as investors scrutinize jay powell's testimony on capitol hill this week, eyes turned to asia. the national people's congress has set a modest target for growth, but that 5% stands has disappointed commodity bowls who were hoping for more ambitious support from the world's second-largest economy. joining us now is ella hoxha, senior investment manager in global bonds at pictet asset management. what do you make of the fact that xi's administration set this growth target that disappointed many?

ella: if you look at where we started the year in terms of consensus forecasts for china, it was around this level, 5%. for three months, market started to play this recovery china theme, and you saw some recovery in commodities on the back of that. until we got pmi numbers, which were much stronger. we have to take another step back. there will be recovery in china relative to the last year. whether that is 5%, or closer to that figure, for markets it still will be a recovery. it is the second largest economy in the world coming out of a long period of lockdown, so we will see the repercussions play out. dani: the question is, in terms of longevity of this, does china need policy support for this to

be more than just a one time immediate trade, to continue to lend itself to growth in the economy? ella: one of the hard things to understand about this recovery has been, is this purely consumption driven? given the exports and real estate domestic lag that has been much weaker than in the past. to us it more -- looks more like a consumption-led recovery but we are seeing signs in the data of a more typical chinese recovery. there could be some more room for surprised but you do need policy support, you need the consumer to be supported. but we are seeing angles of those pan out in policy, so in real estate, and support for auto buying but you will need this to be maintained for this to be other than a two-quarter recovery. dani: translate that into your commodity view. ella: commodities is not just a

cyclical view. it is also more structural in nature. it is predicated from the fact that we have two angles that play out. one is supply constraints that we face as we build a trainer economy. the second angle is geopolitical, which shifted dramatically february of last year with the invasion of ukraine. those two factors will support commodities on a structural basis. cyclically for the time being we think not only do they provide some hedge for bonds, but you could play some of this chinese recovery theme, which has begun to play out in our eyes. dani: you are short investment grade at the moment. but spreads have been incredibly well-behaved. i think we are 120 at the moment in investment grade, something you wouldn't expect if we have higher rates and profits coming

back in. is that the land of irrational exuberance, or the credit market has it right that things are perhaps so bad? ella: for us, u.s. ig spreads have looked on the richer side. we have reduced our exposure and flipped that to being short. we have been running longs in europe because we saw recovery coming through and those valuations felt more interesting. we have to put it in a relative value perspective. to your question, they look so tight given the risk with not just the fed potentially keeping the rate higher for longer, but also margin compression that is likely to come through. that for us is a lethal combination, at this time risk reward favors being short spreads into next year in the u.s. dani: the puzzle of the macro

data, the consumer has been strong. how convicted can you be in these types of calls when the data is not cooperating? ella: there is a couple of elements, this is going to take time when you think about curves inverting which is a very important macro indicator. we started to do so, shall we say, a year ago. typically, that tends to lead to recessions and also widening of credit spreads broadly speaking. we have seen a massive repricing of rates across the board, particularly for corporates. into next year which is when most of the refunding starts to come through. this is one that pain starts to play out. this is why we haven't seen significant widening, it is too early to call it quits. the second point, back to the

margin compression for corporates. so far, corporate have been able to pass through a lot of the inflationary dynamics in the economy. as consumers begin to retrench, it will be much more difficult for them. also, they are paying higher wages, we have seen sticky wage numbers across the board. that will also come through in margin compression. we are thinking about credit more in line with what we saw play out during the tech boom and bust cycle. dani: you can make the argument that the data we have seen was weird seasonal weather related elements for january. ella hoxha, senior investment manager in global bonds at pictet asset management. more on the fallout from credit suisse with one of the bank's biggest backers selling their entire state. we w-- stake. ♪

dani: it's "bloomberg daybreak: europe". let's get to some of our top stories. with the first word news is simone foxman in dubai. >> china has set its economic growth target at around 5%. the goal was announced during the national people's congress that began sunday. economists had expected a more ambitious target in the wake of rebounding consumer spending. premier li kequiang said the government will work to prevent unregulated expansion of the property market. the estonian prime minister has secured a commanding election victory. her reform party took around 31.5 percent of votes. estonia has been one of the most

strident critics of moscow, supplying kyiv with more weapons than any other country on a per capita basis. u.n. negotiators agreed on the wording of a treaty that adds protections for two thirds of the global ocean. it is the culmination of two decades of work and seeks to end unregulated exploitation of the high seas. if delegates formally adopt the text, it will go to the u.n. general assembly for approval. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. dani: thank you very much. the biggest shareholder in credit suisse for many years, harris associates, has sold its entire stake in the swiss bank. the deputy chairman shared his view with bloomberg last year. >> this has been a problem

child. we have owned this bank literally since early 2001. the first 10 years, it was a very good holding. it went from 20 to 60 or 70. we should have sold it, and that's it. dani: they have now sold it, and that's it. harris investment firm is cutting ties with the swiss bank after two decades of ownership. for more as our banking and deals reporter harry in sydney. herro was very vocal about credit suisse. he was this long-standing investor. does anyone take up that mantle of support now that harris associates is gone? harry: it may be unlikely. he was a long-time defender, but given the share price action, of the company shares since the precrisis highs in 2007, shares lost about 95% of value.

that would test anyone's faith. the remaining backers, you can look on the bloomberg terminal, you can see saudi national bank is now the largest shareholder. the qatar investment authority. they have a couple of long-term sovereign wealth funds that are quite committed to this. in terms of people that can analyze the stock publicly for us, there is not anyone. dani: let's talk about the restructuring that continues to happen at credit suisse. what is this new structure at first boston? it sounds like they are taking a page from goldman sachs? harry: they have switched to a partnership model, which may incentivize the investment banking portion. the bank needs to steadily compound and get back not just investors, but plans and personnel as well. customers from the wealth management business have been pulling money. and staff have also been leaving

to other institutions across the street. 110 billion swiss francs last quarter. the wealth unit is a steady ballast for the whole investment bank to help support and offset. without that, they are really struggling. dani: just about 20 minutes ago, we got ubs's annual compensation statement. they are cutting bonuses by about 10%. hamers will get a papers, 12.2 million swiss francs. away from some of the credit suisse drama, i wonder how much we should think about the banking sector in terms of its performance. especially if dealmaking is

translating into lower bonuses. can't make money if they are not being paid appropriately. it goes back to the cost structure. a lot of banks are moving into a point in the credit cycle where they are able to reprice a lot of stuff. all things being equal, that should translate to better profit margins. it's a good time to be in banking. for credit suisse, they are still burning cash. the researcher will take time. some of these new units, herro was not a supporter of the investment banking unit. he thought that would burn more capital over time as well. his argument for rotating out of the stock was why on this stock when there are others in a

better part of the credit cycle for financial institutions? dani: harry, thank you for the update. that is our deals indirectly reporter in sydney. keep your eye on ubs, all of those european banks as we head towards the open. there has been is string of property defaults at blackstone, brookfield and pimco indicating deepening property pain. we will speak to let's all -- s

dani: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london. cautious target. china sets a full-year growth

objective of 5%, below expectations, limiting the nation's ability to stimulate the global economy. copper and iron or fall as traders find little cheer in beijing's plans. but stocks and futures rallied on wall street. pressure continues on credit suisse as a longtime investor sells its stake in the embattled lender. the underwhelming china growth target, we talked to ella hoxha who said the china growth story is alive and well but this crimps the longevity of the trade if you don't have policy support. chinese equities are underperforming this morning. the overall equity complexes moving higher, but china is down more than .5%. iron ore futures also taking a hit.

china is the world's biggest importer of oil, that's also falling. we also have to digest the fed. we had mary daly over the weekend saying there is more work to do. everyone has been saying this but the stock market pays attention to what it wants to. last week, bostic saying potentially a pause this summer but he was talking about higher terminal rates. even so, stocks moving higher this morning. yields fell 10 basis points. the 10-year back below 4%, perhaps some profit-taking at the same time. but caution continues. we will have nonfarm payrolls on friday. last time around inverted the curve even further. we are nearly 1% inverted. yen was seeing a little bit of strength earlier this morning thanks to the fact that we will have a boj meeting. corrode up's -- weaker dollar.

last week, blackstone defaulted on a bond backed by a portfolio of finnish offices and stores. it is the latest in a string of high-profile defaults that includes pimco and brookfield. we are joined now by bloomberg's re who has had fantasticporter coverage of this. why did blackstone's lenders reject the capital injection and instead trigger the default? >> blackstone had made an offer to the creditors offering some equity in exchange for an extension of the loan. they have been trying to sell these properties, these parties are in finland. finland has extremely strict

travel restrictions during covid and a huge land border with russia. investors have been very risk off about finnish properties which has made them difficult to sell. blackstone will eventually achieve a good price. but creditors rejected that deal and it appears to be because while the value of the properties has fallen, it has not fallen below the level of the debt, so they are confident ultimately but creditors will be made whole. dani: we have seen defaults by landlords in the u.s. i'm trying to evaluate whether this is something idiosyncratic. is this a global problem if it is in finland and the u.s.? >> there are similarities but it is important to draw distinctions as well. in the u.s., the office market is struggling. return to the office has been much lower than in europe and elsewhere.

and there is much higher vacancy. plus, you've got sustainability issues as well with carbon emitting properties. in the u.s., you are seeing jenny wine credit losses. and it landlords basically give up and hand over the keys. in europe, rising interest rates are putting pressure on landlords. we had such low rates for such a long time, that's going to cause some pain but we're not get at this stage where we're seeing widespread credit losses. we're probably seeing borrowers blow through some cabinets, that is forcing them to get into her room with their lenders and have conversations. but we are not at the point where they are giving up and handing back the keys. dani: as bloomberg's jack sidders joining us. now joining us is lasalle's cohead of debt.

he oversaw blackstone's real estate debt strategies. jack talked about hard conversations. are you having hard conversations with borrowers right now? ella: i run both a credit and equity business at lasalle. on both sides we're having conversations. the current dynamic with european real estate is higher frictional costs. let's not forget that covid shut downs led to real estate owners having to hold assets longer than they intended. greater needs, and higher rates now requiring significantly more capital reserves to be injected into those asset classes. dani: is this the story of cost of capital being more expensive? michael: it is a little bit of both. within europe, we should look at

this as a tale of two cities market. on the one hand, revenue drivers. we still see significant upward positive pressure on occupational trends in various sectors. we are seeing significant rental tailwinds come through, especially for nondiscretionary spend sectors. for well-located sustainable offices, we are seeing rents rise. but on the flipside, if you look at expense line items, we are seeing a completely different story. higher frictional cost of ownership, higher rates, bank retrenchment and higher wage inflation and higher capex, that is leading a lot of owners of real estate you have to inject more capital into their assets. they can do so with reserves or

alternative forms of capital to provide that. dani: i wonder whether what we saw with blackstone and ve finnish office buildings is a sign of things to come, or is that an idiosyncratic. or if it tells something about the default cycle we are about to see? michael: i can't specifically discuss transactions we are not involved in. however it is a small component of a march larger portfolio. i would not extrapolate that to the broader market. there will be pockets of illiquidity. what we're seeing within our credit business is borrowers are seeking out nonbank lenders. they are doing so for a couple of reasons. one of the major ones involved bilateral conversations, borrower and lender, with fewer constituencies. that is a dramatic difference from the banking model, which is lend to distribute, which

increases the number of constituents the borrower would have to face. dani: in bank earnings, the willingness to lend has frozen. are we at that level that it is so hard to find lenders because of the diminishing risk appetite? michael: not at all. our alternative credit business is seeing a significant influx of activity. it is a powerful source of capital in the marketplace today. when banks retrench, alternative lenders usually come in the form of debt funds, insurance companies or other types of providers are coming in and providing that very necessary capital inflow to real estate transactions. this is an entirely new. this eltel or native -- this alternative private credit was born out of the financial crisis and has steadily grown in prominence.

and real estate investors are seeking out that asset class because it provides fixed income yield. and it is predominantly floating-rate, which if interest rates rise, they get better return. and they are insulated from increased frictional cost of ownership. dani: but there is the other side of the floating-rate loan. it will be pressuring borrowers. which the ecb is not stopping. at what point do you say this is going to be a problem for borrowers? michael: you have to be highly selective in the types of real estate you land on. we're focused on real estate that we believe hasn't kept pace with changes in technological, societal or cultural demands. and where we believe that demand for that real estate will keep pace, or outpace inflation. if you are running faster or longer on the revenue side, you

can keep pace with that inflation trend. if you are in real estate that does not have that ability, you will have a problem. dani: has your near-term investment thesis changed in terms of where you want to be in the capital structure? are you leaning more toward senior debt where you are no longer the last dollar standing? michael: in the credit businesses, all we do is lend. today what we've done is reduced the basis on which we would land. we are typically lended significantly lower on a loan to value ratio. the biggest gap in today's market with europe is in the senior debt portion of the capital structure. with higher base rates, irrespective of where margins are trending, higher base rates plus that component of margin is leading those fixed income returns to meet a lot of direct private credit investors'return

targets. on the equity side, you have to be highly selective in how you borrow and who you borrow from. on our equity side of the business, especially for transitional assets, we're not borrowing at all. we're using equity to implement those near-term transitional business plans and borrowing later once you've actually navigated that income profile. dani: mcrae that's all we have time for. we could probably speak for hours. michael zerda, lasalle's co-cio. china's communist party sets a cautious growth target for the year, suggesting massive post-covid stimulus could be off the table. we will talk national people's congress next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> many difficulties and challenges confront us. uncertainties in the external environment are on the rise. global inflation remains high. the foundation for domestic growth needs to be consolidated. insufficient demand remains a pronounced problem. we should give priority to the recovery. the incomes of urban and rural residents should be boosted. we strive to ensure market supply and stable presence, particularly those of food and energy. last year global inflation rocketed to record high. it is not easy to maintain a stable price. we should ensure effective risk mitigation. and promote stable development of the real estate sector. dani: chinese premier li kequiang outlining the government's economic objective

to the national people's congress. one of the objectives at the congress was the setting up a modest growth target of 5% for the year, avoiding large stimulus to spur a consumer driven recovery that for the most part is underway. let's get to our china economy reporter on this. james, the surprised many people. just 5%. >> the first thing we should think about is the growth target is probably a floor for what they hope to achieve this year. last year, the growth target was 5.5%, that growth came in at more than 8%. this is by no means saying growth is definitely going to be 5% this year, but the government is trying to indicate how much -- to the central government and

provinces, how much they are expected to do this year. how much infrastructure spending, how much central-bank spending and fiscal stimulus will be put into the economy to boost growth and solidify the recovery in consumption. there is an indication that not as much as last year is needed. not as much monetary stimulus is needed is last year, so they will pull back on the massive increases in debt the last few years which the government used depaul the economy through the pandemic. this is an indication that they are hopeful there will be a consumption-letter coverage this year. but it is not as bullish as some people were hoping. markets were disappointed with the numbers. maybe chinese commodity demand will be lower than hoped. demand for consumer stocks will also be lower. the government is saying the economy work to, we're not going to go crazy with the stimulus. the congress as we heard of the

last few days, the pboc last week said we didn't cough report with stimulus like other countries. we didn't go crazy with monetary policy like the fed and other places. we kept it in bounds and will continue to that. continue to expect stimulus within limits and not over-the-top like they see other countries doing. dani: the other announcement we're expecting is a reshuffle potentially giving the party more control over government agencies. what sort of announcement could that be? >> it will be a reshuffle of different ministries, maybe a combination of fiscal regulators, maybe security regulators get cold together. this will give the party more direct control. in an authoritarian state, it is unclear how much will change on the ground but you will probably see more direct private control

from the communist party instead of going through the organs of the central government. what that means of the ground, we will have to need to wait until that is announced. dani: that's bloomberg's james maker. let's continue with the china theme. the biden administration nearing completion of an executive order that would restrict investments by u.s. companies in parts of the chinese economy. enda curran joins us in hong kong on this. walk us through the details of what we know. >> this would be an executive order. some reports that the administration is looking for funding from congress to get this through. they will target u.s. investment in sensitive national security related areas, maybe u.s. investment in ai-driven companies or the code breaking technology space in china. this is all about a continuation of a theme of the u.s.

administration cracking down on transfer of funding to areas that create dual use technology, both civilian and military. and cracking down on money flows going to national security-sensitive parts of china's manufacturing chain. as the latest example of the u.s. trying to turn the screw on that kind of investment heading to china. dani: what sort of reaction could we get from china? >> we have had messaging from the npc already with the people's congress underway. president xi jinping today with remarks about how china will double down on its manufacturing ambitions. he made the point that they have to strive to be a technology-driven center. they are trying to cut off reliance on the u.s. because of how it is responding in kind to china. this might take some time to bear fruit, so to speak, but with the personnel being appointed to support xi jinping

at this npc, it's expected china will make progress on developing its own technology. but whether or not it can get where it wants to be without relying on china remains to be seen. dani: make it very much. enda curran in hong kong. coming up, banks grapple with the after brexit. how lenders are beeching up their operations in paris. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: wall street banks grapple with life after brexit. citigroup is expanding into paris as the french capital has

turned into a european union trading cluster, ahead of frankfurt or dublin. caroline connan went to visit the citigroup office in paris. >> he just moved from london to paris a few days ago. citigroup is planning to double its staff in paris, building a brand-new second trading floor. >> you have a whole ecosystem of markets people moving to paris. when you look at it as an opportunity, paris is a lovely city. >> banks are looking at paris as a pool for talent. with experienced traders who create complex derivatives at societe generale, or bnp paribas. >> there is talent locally. there is some very strong domestic players which have grown this talent. >> jp morgan, goldman stanley,

and bank of america have all beefed up operations. princes home to the largest european stock exchange by market cap. >> london used to be the largest financial center of the european union. today london is the largest financial center of the u nited kingdom. >> the euro next ceo says the trend could be more acute in the long-term as fear of european study in london. dani: caroline connan unbanked speaking up their operations in paris following the brexit changes, and apparently playing more ping-pong as well. let's get the bloomberg business flash with simone foxman. >> softbank-backed u.k. chip designer arm is reportedly seeking to raise at least $8

billion in a u.s. ipo. reuters has arm will confidentially submit paperwork for its listing in april. bloomberg earlier reported that bankers had pitched a wide valuation window of between 30 and $70 billion for the company. tesla has cut prices of its model s and x in the u.s., for a second time this year. tesla sells its cars direct to consumers and often tweets pricing. the latest moves come even though tesla drastically cut prices in january in a broad bid boost sales. the new ceo of shell has told the times that britain is less attractive as an investment destination, because it is failing to match green energy subsidies. he says the u.k. should take a page from some of the things the u.s. has done different recently. he also criticized the shifting

tax regime and the government's energy windfall tax. dani: simone foxman in dubai. staying with us on bloomberg, we have a lot of great interviews coming up. we will speak to the natwest group chairman howard davies at 9:00 a.m. then, it is illycaffe. and christian horner on the surveillance program, probably flying high after the 1-2 finish for red bull yesterday in bahrain. heartbreak for for already, but christian will likely be in a good mood. ♪

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anna: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." i am anna