tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg March 9, 2023 1:00am-2:00am EST
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>> good morning, this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in london with the stories that set your agenda. jerome powell's softer tone on rates and weaker inflation rating for china. a fed front runner emerges as a leading white house candidate to succeed the vice chair. plus citigroup becomes the latest bank to say may need to adjust headcount in its investment banking arm. we will get insight with brian moynihan later today. some earnings coming through, deutsche post, the shipping company coming in at 8.4 4 billion. if anything a bit of a beat, also a beat on revenue. but dividends a miss.
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1.85 euros, the estimate had been for 1.91. is the covid boom over? the covid boom of freight logistics, they are going to increase their share buybacks, that will go up by one billion euros. so there you go, it's this push and pull between the dividend coming back in and the share buyback that will be accelerated by $1 billion. we will have to assess some of these forgotten signs that are not out yet. i will bring them to you when they come out. the main thing were looking for with guidance will be their profitability. we will also speak to the ceo later, that will be an important conversation later this hour. on those numbers, on the share buyback and on the dividend. as we await those guidance numbers coming from georgia pose, let's talk about markets and powell. we heard may be a very different powell yesterday.
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he was implying heavily that the fed could go 50 basis points but he seemed to walk that back. the market strongly pricing and 50 basis points as his base case , but the market wasn't buying his pullback especially after that number yesterday. two yariel still above 5%, coming in about 1.5 basis points but still at that level that implies a high likelihood of 50 basis points for the upcoming march meeting. the dollar basically unchanged, still around the highest level for the year and the renminbi is weaker. perhaps china not acting as that inflationary force at some had thought. when it comes to equity pusser -- equity futures, also changing some of the current interest rules of the u.s..
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we will get to that in a moment. you're looking at most of these indexes little changed. the nasdaq down .2%. let's get into that story and our other top ones. we will get the latest lines from russell ward and all things crypto. fed chair jay powell soften his tone slightly during a second day of congressional testimony, this time in front of the house, sing policy will wait for fresh data before deciding on how much to raise interest rates later this month. i've been speaking with folks who felt confused fight jay powell's message i'm of the fact that he was so fiery out of gates on tuesday, and yesterday trying to inject optionality back into the conversation. what do you make of it? enda: that clearly are in a tricky moment in terms of trying
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to keep the narrative down. he came out yesterday and basically said there has not yet been a decision taken on how much they will raise interest rates when they meet next week. could be 25, could be 50. he stressed there are some important data sets, of course the all-important employment on friday. it also left an impression that it is an open-ended meeting, it could go by 25 or 50. he made it clear that interest rates continue to go up. think you left an impression that they will end up higher than americans are anticipating. he's trying to manage the message and keep a grip on it but clearly the jobs information data will affect what the fed will do. dani: they're kind of painting the fed into a corner for their
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next meeting. and of the big questions is whether we will have a new fed vice chair. what more do we know about the timing if she does end up joining as vice chair? enda: she's a very accomplished professional, our colleagues in washington are reporting come she's going through the rounds of the interviews with the administered issue -- administration staff. a white house spokesperson said they will have a decision on this very soon. it's interesting in terms of where she will come down on the spectrum. there is a debate that whoever gets the role is got to observe the dual mandate of the fed, including making sure people have jobs and that the economy is at full employment. there's a school of thought that whoever gets a job needs to come from that side of the economic
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spectrum. regardless, our colleagues are saying her name is among the most prominent among the mix for now. dani: thank you very much for the latest on the fed. lubar concern that president biden is set to propose a series of tax increases on millionaires and corporations as he seeks to roll back trump era tax breaks on the super wealthy. let's get to bruce on horn for more. this was able to rest the rally in u.s. futures, but does this even have any chance of passing in congress, and if not, why propose this? bruce: good questions. first of all, in terms of the specifics, regarding a budget proposal that includes a 25% minimum tax on leaners, nearly doubling the capital gains tax,
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also raising the top tax bracket for income taxes to 39.6% for incomes above 400,000. reversing a lot of the trump era tax cuts. so to answer your question, no, this doesn't stand a chance. weren't able to pass this when the democrats were in complete control of congress so certainly it's not going to happen with republicans in charge of the house. that said, it is worth paying attention to because it does underscore just how big of a gap there is between the democrats and republicans when it comes to issues of spending and taxes, which will come into play in the months ahead as we look at the possible deadline -- or the actual deadline for the debt ceiling as well as budget negotiations for fall to avert a government shutdown. republicans do not want to raise taxes, republicans have proposed
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in general spending cuts. they have not laid out what spending cuts i would like to see. that something democrats are looking forward to because they think those will be very unpopular. dani: certainly the debate is only going to heat up from here. roos einhorn, thanks for joining us. let's talk crypto, one company planning to wind down operations and liquidate its bank. let's good -- get to our crypto reporter in singapore. what could be the locations of silver gate winding up? >> basically you can see that this is the first time that a traditional finance institution has come into this collapse kind of situation where the crypto meltdown is impacting a traditional financial institution. the implications could be bearing from crackdowns to pure
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banks coming in to the crypto sector. many have cut ties from silver gate and is likely to be difficult for more crypto exchanges to get banks to help with their transactions and payments going ahead. dani: thanks so much for joining us as we look at the -- crypto down 1.1%. we will be talking about the banking sector later in the show. there are some macro environment things we need to talk about. citi talking about going back on their investment bank and no mirror cutting back the entertainment expenses for executives -- nomura cutting back on entertainment expenses for executives. new in the u.k., we will get cpi
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data from mexico. policymakers had previously signaled that more tightening is on the way with that sticky inflation. the boe had a financial stability will be speaking at the university of leeds on prudential policy. then u.s. weekly initial jobless claims numbers. president biden bans on availing his u.s. budget proposal for the 2024 fiscal year. plan is expected to see a major pushback by republicans, considering what we seen so far the reports on trying to up taxes on corporations and billionaires is already getting some pushback. the u.s. lender hoaxes first level investor summit in paris. we are live at the french capital. later we will be speaking with the georgia post ceo as they deliver earnings.
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european union. francine lacqua is at the summit alongside a guest. francine: we are excited to be here. this is the first global summit for bank of america. we will speak to great guests. to kick us off, one of the hosts at bank of america. thank you for joining us. this is exciting, you're on the ground in paris meeting with clients. are they feeling positive? >> yes. this is opportunity to showcase to our global and european clients how important -- we're happy to showcase our goals and talk about all the things in the markets today, tomorrow, and for years to come. so it's a great opportunity for us and we are excited. >> what does it mean for supply
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chains, what have you heard from clients? do they want to be more global, or did they want a time to think and reflect? >> inflation is the story that is driving consistently around markets. there are varying views out there. the bulk of clients we talked to feel elation is sticky, certainly in the u.s., and are watching coordinating global higher rates at we're starting to see across the globe. at the end of the day, we think the fed will land this thing. clients are optimistic and hopeful we will get that soft landing. and if so, we may have a long session. overall we will come out of it ok. we're just hoping that is the case and we think clients are positioning for that across their portfolios. >> is it changing client behavior as we get the data? >> we are seeing lots of
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clients, there's been a shift away from equities, but we are seeing clients leaning toward fixed income. is the first time they've been able to recapture yield and clients are doing that and positioning their portfolio. were seeing that in the markets in terms of short terms rates as well as ig credit markets which a comeback in terms of spreads. people believe high-quality credit scores are in opportunity and we are seeing that shift come in the market. >> what this it mean for where you want to be closer to your clients? is it your or elsewhere that you think client activity will pick up significantly? >> making sure we stay close to what's happening on the ground, we have speculation on what's going on in japan, the boj and
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what will happen in terms of them coming off their negative covid policy. we are here to serve all of our global clients and show we have accord knighted effort and that means being a liquidity provider in a responsible way across all regions. >> how many clients are trying to stay on the sidelines and waiting for a catalyst or signal from the fed that there will not be a protracted lawn recession to get back in? >> mostly in terms of playing a safer asset classes. most of our clients are flush with cash, au m's are quite high across all of our asset managers. it's a tough environment unless you are raising money. sitting in is not really a chance to capitalize on higher yield so we are seeing clients deploy safely and looking for
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those high quality trade opportunities and high-quality spreads and playing the rate story has been the thing that we see. >> have you been surprised given the leverage we had in the system and the pace of change in interest rates? that we haven't seen more companies default or zombie companies. >> i think post-covid those that were able to come out of covid and really survive, i think we've weeded out a lot of that. some people are calling for looking at certain segments of the market, particularly the lower end of middle-market companies. people are being a little more cautious there, but we are seeing a huge demand in terms of people so trying to balance their portfolios. rates are higher now so you can achieve that.
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picking credits, and were back to managers that are keen and able to do that well. >> are the younger clients behaving differently? do they ask different questions and want to invest differently? >> i like to say us tenured folks, we see a lot of volatility over the years over the markets. certainly they haven't seen higher rates in a long time. this is the first time really learning how to invest when you're in the client base in this type of interest rate environment. so the really are asking us for solutions, so we are helping them with some strategies as well to complement them trying to capture higher yields. >> so are they more nervous? is there a bias in the market
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that doesn't want to see higher interest rates just because they are not used to it? >> i think we know we needed higher interest rates. we could not keep our hand in the cookie jar too much longer, so it was inevitable. i just think market really wants to be measured and certainly be guided and have expectations, and the fed is trying to do that. certainly getting the economy and being cautious about how you raise rates is one thing that is being looked at. so there it is a debate around terminal rates and how high they can go with some calling for 5.5 . it can be dangerous if we get up to that six level, but by large, higher rates for longer is kind of what we all know inevitably needs to be measured without shocks to the marketplace. >> thank you so much for joining us today.
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we will have plenty more guests throughout the day here at the bank of america event in paris. dani: such a fascinating conversation on the idea that folks are going into fixed income because that's where they can get the returns and income. francine lacqua there in paris. she will have a lot more exclusive interviews from the bank of america global investor summit in paris. that will include conversations with the ceo of apollo, mark rowan, and the bank of america ceo on moynihan. citigroup becomes the latest bank to say it may need to adjust headcount in its investment banking arm. or on that, next, on bloomberg. ♪ my ameriprise advisor helps me feel confident about my financial future. he knows me and my goals. it's not the first uncertain environment
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still being hit by the macro environment and a lot of that has to do with dealmaking slowing down. citi the latest to have a rethink on their headcount in their investment bank. let's bring in russ award. we are talking about citi not that long ago letting folks go, is this something different, what the ceo was commenting on about hiring? russell: he did mention job cuts -- did not mention job cuts per say but saying citigroup has been beefing up its investment bank by other sectors but the recent out in dealmaking -- drought has forced the firm to change of pace of some of those investments and this reflects the slump in dealmaking were seen worldwide as a global economy slows. he said he expects a mild recession driven by interest
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rates, but the bank is well-positioned to manage this. he expects investment banking revenue to drop in line with the trend in this recalibration reflects that. as you mention, bloomberg reported last week that citigroup is cutting 100 jobs across the organization including investment banking. these are routine cuts but they reflect a change in mentality across wall street. other banks like morgan stanley and goldman are also reducing staff in their advisory business. because are really in focus for these firms. dani: i wish i had an entertainment budget. nomura is cutting there's for executives. what is the story there? russell: another example of how banks are looking at cutting costs. they're looking at cutting 30% of the entertainment budget for senior managers. entertainment is a discretionary
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cost and easy to cut, maybe in advance of more substantial cuts like cutting staff and bonuses. they have not been cutting staff as aggressively as other wall street banks. we reported overnight that they are actually hiring in some areas. this is a case of calibrating and catering to their strengths. dani: russell, thank you very much. i would rather keep live job and lose out on dining. let's get the first word news with simone foxman. >> jp morgan accusing jes staley of concealing an inappropriate relationship with jeffrey epstein and vouching for his character to keep him as a client. the bank filed a third-party complaint against the former ceo in a federal court in manhattan. he has consistently denied knowledge of epstein's abuse.
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the netherlands is preparing restrictions on the export of some chipmaking machines to china amid pressure from the united states. according to a letter to dutch lawmakers come the plan adds to existing curbs on the sale of advanced chipmaking machinery. the company's home to asml, the world leader in high-tech chip equipment. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm simone foxman, and this is bloomberg. dani: thank you very much. coming up, we will get back to the think america investor summit with mark rowan. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network.
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dani: good morning, this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in london with the stories that set your agenda. futures mixed as traders way jerome powers softer tone on rates and weaker inflation rating for china. a fed front runner emerges as a leading white house candidate to succeed the vice chair. plus citigroup becomes the latest bank to say may need to adjust headcount in its investment banking arm. we'll get more on the sector with our exclusive interview with brian moynihan later today. bank of america is hosting its first global investor summit in paris as the french capital's finance profile rises, not just for public equities but for private as well. francine lacqua is at the summit standing by with a guest.
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printing: good morning again, glad to be joined by marc rowan. thank you for joining us. we can also talk about restaurants, because it is buzzing. i wonder whether overall were just measuring things wrong, we have inflation and interest rates going up, do you believe we are in an unwinding? >> as i jokingly say, we are having a non-recession recession. we printed $8 trillion in the u.s.. are we surprised by what happened? we shouldn't be, everything went up and to the right. last year we started to withdraw some of that stimulus, and lo and behold, things went down. but everyone who wants a job has a job. unemployment is at record lows. the last cycle was about even the lower ends of the employment
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spectrum, restaurant and hospitality. those who -- you are in asset financial markets, it feels like a recession, but for the vast majority of americans and around the world, people have jobs. >> but if the fed gets to 2%, will they have to crush the economy? >> i think it will have a lot more to have that kind of demand destruction, but we are in uncharted territory. we have never actually printed this amount of money nor stimulated an economy that was already in full employment. anyone who says they have a good idea of how this will end does not. we are in uncharted territory. >> are you confident the fed will handle this? >> anyone who expresses confidence, it's difficult to say. the direction of travel is clear, we like to bring inflation down.
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it is clear we are watching additional tightening to calls demand destruction but we are doing it on the back of something that is unprecedented. >> you basically have three businesses at apology -- at apollo. which will get ahead in this kind of inflationary environment? >> credit and inflation don't often sound like the right mix, but i think for our firm, this is the single best entry point for credit. what we have seen is a drying up of liquidity. certainly the amount of liquidity in the economy and the amount of liquidity that went into banks that is now going the other way is creating a backup and therefore creating interesting opportunities for firms such as ours to deploy capital and credit. >> where exactly in credit? >> we've been reading a lot
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about the words private credit. it sounds like perfectly fine words but actually means nothing. the business we built has been investment grade private credit for the most part. in an uncertain world where we can earn spread, we want to be at the top of the capital structure and safe. the world needs say field. insurance and retirees need safe yield. i think that's where we are going to grow the most. >> is this across the world or are there region set look more attractive than others? >> we are primarily a u.s. business with the junk of business in europe and asia. -- a chunk of business in europe. $400 billion was credit. the vast majority of that was investment raid private credit. of the other 150, half of that or 75 billion dollars was traditional private equity which we done for a really long time.
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the other half is what we call hyper equity -- hybrid equity. it is just a fascinating place to be. we can spend time on that if you are interested. >> their questions about blackstone reits. does it change the way you structure and sell the product? >> as much as it is easy to take a shot at a competitor, they are doing the right thing. they are paying the tuition for the industry to explain to investors that alternative has a cost. alternative means you will get more return but you will give up some amount of liquidity. investors need the education to understand that the money they allocate to alternatives is less liquid than in public markets. >> are there pots of the alternative market -- parts that
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you worry about for the next 12-18 months? >> if you go back to 2007, we had a period of excess. far greater than what happened in this most recent access. in 2007 it was funded with leverage. 2021 it was funded with equity. so i believe that while we will have some amount of distress, i don't think the distress cycle will be anything like what we saw in 2008. most of the pain is going to be worn by equity. the best thing to have done for investors for the last decade up until when he too was to have fired all the professional money managers, but the s&p 500, and do whatever it is that people like to do. i don't think that will be the world going forward. i think that the world was going to be much more difficult to navigate for investors and i think alternatives will play a
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much bigger part. >> are you expecting a big correction as we adjust to higher rates? >> i don't know that we've had a correction. it has been mostly in growth because that's where most of the excesses were. we have moved from hyper liquidity to a regime of less the quiddity. from low rates to higher rates. that is generally not a great time for equities, if the fed is trying to cool the economy. i look at the last decade as the anomaly. i look at where we are today is much closer to what i think normal is. is liquidity abnormal today? no. they're just abnormal as of the last decade because investors got so used to the hyper liquid data that was pumped into the system. >> there must be something you think is off at the moment. is it a dodge to look at
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leverage in the system and say we've gone from 1% interest rates to possibly 6% without significant damage to certain companies, even zombie companies are going bust. >> there are business models that were funded that made sense in a world where you could spend your way to productivity. and eventually have something that was real. those kinds of strategies that are not profitable for a long time are not going to be fully funded. i think we will see a cut off of the growth sector but in the comparison to 2007, i think this is a recession that will be borne by equity. >> you said that apollo aligned equities would be your biggest return this year. is that still the case? >> the notion with alternatives is really going to take hold. alternatives provide excess
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return premium at a risk. we've always talked about alternatives is private equity. we've now talked about it as an alternative to private credit, whatever that turns out to mean. we have created something that is an alternative to the s&p 500 to try to provide investors returns consistent with equity, with the risks more akin to fixed income. i think that's a product,'s education take place in this market, i expect retail investors to be much more significantly allocated to alternatives. maybe not the kind of alternatives historically but alternatives. there's a team at apollo that are involved and i'm sure they doing their best. >> how is fundraising? >> fundraising and credit is
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terrific. fundraising in retirement services is at record levels. in the traditional equity class, it is slower. but it is actually back to normal. what happened over the last decade of telling investors we were going to raise the fun in six months is the abnormal we are much more use to. i think we are back to a more normal period. >> is that healthy, or how much competition is there with some of your competitors? >> there is always competition. i like what we do relative to what most of the market has done. for the last decade, 60% of what people called private equity, for us it's quite simple to understand at apollo. because we only do one thing. in a market that is uncertain, investors are much more comfortable that we will navigate this environment.
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>> if i gave you 100,000 pounds today, where would you put it? i don't want to lose money. >> the single best place to employ capital is where there is not a lot of capital. things that are hybrid are in some ways the best risk reward. they offer downside protection but also allow you to participate on the upside, should it be there. ironically, there's not a lot of capital for hybrid opportunities. institutions allocate to alternatives to get the highest rate of return. they do that consistently, so they don't have a hybrid bucket. public investors don't want liquidity. the fact that there is no logical source of capital for hybrid means it is usually a pretty good risk reward. >> thank you so much for your time today. the apollo chief executive. we will have plenty more interviews from paris throughout the day.
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dani: such a fascinating interview. talking about the excesses of the last year and people straying from their mandates, maybe doing something that looks more like growth instead of private equity. francine lacqua there in paris, really looking forward to more of those great conversations. coming up, another big conversation with the dhl group ceo frank apple. we will talk earnings results and supply chain management, worker demands, and much more. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the company said it will raise its dividend per share to one euro $.85. missing the estimate and they also aim to increase their share buyback by one billion euros. joining us is tom mackenzie who closely follows deutsche post. tom: is a fascinating company for multiple reasons. it is an important gauge on the health of the global economy. you think about supply chain, e-commerce, it covers all about. who better to speak to then the ceo of the group since 2008. good morning, frank, thanks for joining us. let's start on the macroeconomics before we do a deep dive into these results. what is your assessment of the challenges and pressures facing this economy? >> i think what we see at the moment is that volumes have come down in the last weeks and months. they are the first signs that
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the decline is slowing and we see that week after week, volumes are coming back. china is coming back. it is still difficult to predict, but we are slightly more optimistic this year than we were six weeks ago. signs are getting more positive. there's a chance that we see a recovery for this year. there is no guarantee for that, but definitely the signs are more positive than they have been six weeks ago. tom: what is your assessment of the freight rate you are seeing, is it your view that they start to bottom out later this year? where are we in the normalization of rates around freight? >> i think we have seen a significant decline in rates. rates came down, and that is good. if rates are coming down, inflation is coming down as well, so that's good news. the stability of supply chains is there. depending on how china -- how
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much consumers will spin in china will have a significant impact. we will see the bottom of the curve of rates. to predict rates, i have given up four points on time. people said a year ago rates will never go back to before the crop is. now it is on that path. i think there are more positive sides than negative. dani: considering you are optimistic, do you think your proposed dividend and the additional share buyback increase, is that conservative then? >> i think what we have done is, we had a very good freak cash flow and we always have a very clear policy. we want to continue to invest in organic growth, and we can do that. we also let our shareholders
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participate, when we increase the dividend, we markup our share buyback program and that shows that we are very confident to the long-term outlook of this company. that's a reason we are doing that. sometimes you can do a little more of a dividend unless on the share buyback. the combination is compelling for our shareholders. it shows a strong sign of confidence in the future outlook, as i said. tom: you have to weigh out the returning cash to shareholders with the cost of business. talk about the input cost, energy, labor, which part of the cost component is proving most stubborn at this point? >> all of these elements have significant impact. we have seen an increase in energy cost which are coming down, transportation costs coming down, labor costs rising as well. we have demand from all of the world, and it's important that we let our employees participate
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as well on the success but also help them through the inflation period. but we can do that alone. one company can't solve the problem on its own. we are facing as well significant costs. we should avoid getting in a negative spiral. that means if we increase salaries too much and we have price increases with the demand for higher salaries. we have to break that circle somehow. that is what we're trying to do around the world. dani: the main german union is validating members on strikes. how serious of an impact would strikes have on your business? >> i have seen these kind of things quite frequently in the last 15 years. we had a long strike in 2015. what is important is we have to make clear we always do what is
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right for the employees, short-term and combination to the long-term. we have 600,000 employees around the world. that is what my team and i are working for. we try to give the right balance between these things. they have to face -- i understand that people want to have more, but they have to be realistic, and that is what we are saying. we have to wrestle once in a while and that is happening. let's see what the outcome of that, let's see what will happen. that's not the first time we are seeing that. tom: of course those negotiations with the union continue. let's talk about what's happening on the debt side. revenues up, cash up for the year of 2022. i'm looking at about 22 billion euros.
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is there a risk around the debt pile? >> not at all. we have very good financing. we are very solid, we don't need too much refined over the next coming years. we have no fear, no risk for our results from higher financing costs than we have seen so far. tom: before we let you go, this will be one of your last interviews on an earnings day. you steered this business through the financial crisis, through the coronavirus crisis, through the war in ukraine. is there one particular memory that is seared into your mind as you look to hand over the reins of power? >> i think what i have learned, you always have to look through these crises and you have to think about what is really impacting the business
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long-term, and then execute that. don't get to abscess of about short-term volatility. focus on the things you can change. we have done that through all the crises and that's a reason the company is now in significantly better shape than it was 15 years ago. of course we have to manage short-term, but we have focused on the long-term trends. that has helped the company tremendously. tom: thank you very much indeed. he has been at the helm since 2008. dani: i feel like i need to get that line, you can't get to obsessed about the short-term volatility. am going to click that and give that to one of our fed reporters. that would be a great t-shirt. tom mackenzie will be back in about an hour for the european
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dani: first on tuesday, jay powell said in front of congress that they were prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if needed. then yesterday he says there's been no decision made. many folks interpreted that as a softening of tone. valerie, why the shift? >> we have to look back on his intentions on discussing pace on tuesday. he clearly needed say something about 50 basis points being on the cards before the blackout period. there were so quick to jump on
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that comment initially, pricing in over 40 basis points for the march meeting. maybe he wanted a more balanced 50-50 pricing as we go into the friday payroll. dani: there have been arguments made before that he doesn't care about the market. >> there must've been a reason why he softened the tone. i think he did notice the market pricing yesterday and wasn't happy about it and wanted to pull it back a bit before the payroll comes out on friday. markets did not pay attention and did not budge at all. dani: we will be glued to our seats for that number tomorrow. coming up is bloomberg markets europe. this is bloomberg. ♪
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