Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  March 21, 2023 2:00am-3:00am EDT

2:00 am
2:01 am
tom: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie in london and these are the stories that set your agenda. pimco and invesco are among the top holders of credit suisse debt securities wiped out by the ubs takeover, with reuters reporting the californian bond giant lost $340 million on its at1 position. extended guarantees. sources tell bloomberg that u.s. officials are starting ways to ensure all bank deposits should the crisis widen. stocks and futures wives -- rise as the fed begins its two day meeting. less vladimir putin says he is ready to discuss xi jinping's blueprint for ending the war in ukraine. let's check in on these markets. there is a semblance of relief. gains in asia, the financial sector easing on a rebound in
2:02 am
the at1 bonds being traded in the apac region. you have reassurance coming through from regulators in europe and the u.s. a -- and the u.k. the focus switching to the federal reserve meeting that kicks off today, the decision tomorrow with markets expecting a 25 basis point hike from the federal reserve and the language from jay powell will be central given the turmoil within the financial sector. jp morgan's marko kolanovic saying they could have a minsky moment brewing and say you could sell into any relief rallies. futures in the u.s. pointing to gains of 0.1% after modest upside yesterday, closing out in the green on wall street. futures in europe pointing to gains of zero point 6%. the markets taking a sigh of relief following the turmoil of
2:03 am
the ubs takeover of credit suisse. we heard from madame lagarde yesterday speaking in the parliament in brussels. the european parliament suggesting there is no trade-off between financial stability and the fight against inflation. the pound at 1.22. we will hear from the chancellor, jeremy hunt, later today. brent at $73 a barrel, dropping 0.8%. over the year, losses of around 36% the last 12 months for brent. discussing the commodities picture later in the show. gold is up 0.2%. it's back below 2000 amidst some modest relief across the markets. let's get our reporters from around the world. from credit suisse's riskiest bonds being wiped out to the
2:04 am
fdic's insurance to all bank deposits. in the latest fallout to credit suisse's at one saga, bloomberg learned that invesco and pimco were among those that had the bonds wiped out by the ubs takeover. let's get more with valerie tytel. what do we know about the losses of these at1 holders? valerie: we heard yesterday that pimco saw a $3 million loss from these at1's. pimco is a big holder of them and also blackrock and invesco, known to be decent sized holders of credit suisse at1's. there is some reporting these holders are preparing to push back on the regulators' decision to write off the debt. we are seeing some training -- trading going on in claims of
2:05 am
these bonds as the market price some chance the market could recover some value. tom: maybe through jurisdictions or legal action, they could retain some value. what is the broader read across for the additional tier one space? valerie: it was brought to light about the permanent write-down of these bonds was more of the exception rather than the norm. when the market realized this, it let a lot of european at1's to move off the lows. we have barclays, bnp, santander, and the loss in version is not the same as the swiss law. when the market figured that out yesterday, these at1 bonds from european banks had a lift off the lows at which they opened, but still, this throws up existential questions on the future of at1's is in general.
2:06 am
some investors might not hang around for answers and may leave the market for good. tom: that is a broad implication for regulators from europe and the u.k. trying to highlight the fact that switzerland treated this differently around these additional tier one's. thank you. bloomberg's valerie tytel with the details. ubs's outlook has been cut to negative by s&p and moody's as the bank faces restructuring risk in the wake of its acquisition of credit suisse. get more with tom metcalf. what kind of reaction is settling in around ubs and this momentous takeover of credit suisse? tom m.: it is a mixed picture. yesterday you saw the stocks falling at the open but then recover and come out ahead. the market is taking a breath and a lot of people are seeing this as a positive. interesting to see s&p and moody's come out and say to look at the risks.
2:07 am
that is the big question. it is potentially great for ubs, but it will be tricky to make sure is a success because it is so much riskier. it is a huge operation ends in terms of current changes needed, obviously thousands of jobs will be cut, so it is a big process ahead. tom: the difficulty and the risks around integration, risks around execution for ubs at his -- as it absorbs ubs -- as it absorbs credit suisse. in the u.s., we still look at first republic. what are the regulators considering to support the sector? tom m.: now it is a universal guarantee of all deposits. one silicon valley went under, they were like, we can guarantee this much is in the situation,
2:08 am
and now you have midsized lenders saying that we would like a full guarantee. it is immense, the implications, and particularly, there is a huge amount of pressure on that, so it is being noted and requested. tom: bloomberg's tom metcalf, thank you. china's xi jinping has said he and vladimir putin will forge a blueprint for china-russia strategic coordination. president xi's three-day trip to moscow is expected to be followed the chinese leader's first conversation with ukraine's president zelenskyy since russia invaded. joining us for more is bruce einhorn. what is the latest on xi's trip to moscow? bruce: president xi met with vladimir putin, they met for more than four hours. this is day one of a three day
2:09 am
visit. in their public comments before the meeting began, president putin said we have carefully studied your proposals to resolve the acute crisis in ukraine, as he put it. for his part, president she could not talk about cranes in his comments. the chinese foreign ministry did issue a statement saying that the two sides had what they call an in-depth exchange of views on the ukraine issue. china using russia's preferred terminology, never referring to this as a war, referring to this as an issue, crisis, or situation. they're are expected to continue talking when this meeting ends. president xi is expected to have a video call with president zelenskyy. this would be their first talk since there -- their first contact since the skill invasion
2:10 am
began. meanwhile, fumio kishida of japan is expected to be in ukraine for a meeting with president zelenskyy. this would make him the final of g7 leaders travel to kyiv since the invasion, so a sign of support from japan at the same time the president of china is in moscow. tom: thank you. bruce einhorn on the trip, xi jinping's visit to russia. let's look at what markets will be watching out for today. it is day two of xi jinping's trip to moscow. energy supplies will be at the top of agenda in talks with his russian counterpart. at 12:30 p.m. u.k. time, we get cpi data out of canada. at the same time, christine lagarde and francois villeroy will speak at the advancement innovation summit. and later, the ecb's supervisory
2:11 am
board chair woke discussed the collapse of svb -- will discuss the collapse of svb. this evening, we get nike results. coming up, calls grow for the fed to continue hiking rates amid turmoil in the global banking system. we will have more on that next. this is bloomberg. we will also get the latest on the fallout of the credit suisse deal and those additional tier one bonds. stay with us. ♪
2:12 am
2:13 am
2:14 am
>> the real trouble starts when the yield curve read steep bins because that is the bond market saying the fed will have to be cutting at some point so the two year does not rally where the curve steepen's. bond markets are pricing some kind of recession and at this point the equity market is still in denial. tom: mike wilson on what he thinks is the start of a vicious end to the bear market in u.s. stocks. pershing square's bill ackman's is the fed should not raise its benchmark rate this week, citing major shocks to the global banking system including the closure of three u.s. lenders.
2:15 am
meanwhile, tesla ceo elon musk has suggested the fed should cut rates by 50 basis points tomorrow in response to ackman's post. joining us now is sunaina sinha haldea, global head of private capital advisory at raymond james financial. thank you for joining us. has the financial condition tightening given the fed the space deposit this meeting and consider cuts later in the year? sunaina: it has certainly given the fed a reason to pause. do they pause is another question altogether. 1970's dies hard in the memory of fed officials. they do not want entrenchment of the prices, and also a double bump in inflation. i think you get both. you get a 25 basis point increase and you get a strong signal that what they did with silicon valley bank, signature
2:16 am
bank is just the start of what they could do. they have the firepower to go big to contain contagion, so they could do both. they cannot quite steer the -- stare the inflation bears in the eyes and do nothing. tom: they could take a page out of madame lagarde's book as well, there is a need to address financial stability and also price stability. when it comes to the terminal rate, swap markets are now pricing for percent by year end, so awful one percentage point below the -- so a full one percentage point below the dot plot for officials themselves. where do you see rates at the end of the year? sunaina: you have wishful thinking again and do you have seen this over the last few debt cap balance rallies with the hope and prayer of a fed pivot. it is way too early to expected pivot by the end of this year.
2:17 am
inflation will come down even faster given what has happened in the banking crisis because of lending standards tightening. it is only a matter of time until you have a credit pinch come through because of earnings pressures. i think we will see a faster unwinding of the inflation story than we would have expected a few weeks ago. however, nowhere near as fast as what the markets want and getting through inflation by year end is too optimistic. tom: these markets are setting themselves up for a fall again? sunaina: the markets are setting themselves up as they have done in many points the last year for disappointment again. tom: you have marko kolanovic saying this is a potential minsky moment as the banks try to fight inflation. is that a view view aligned with? sunaina: there will operably's
2:18 am
-- there will always be an opportunistic buying moment, but when you have conviction over a name being oversold, we are nowhere near that. a couple of weeks ago, the market was still pricing very expensive and it was not a cheap market in any conservative estimation. would you buy rallies? potentially. should you be selling into rallies? definitely if you are overweight equities. equities are not the most obvious places in asset classes. tom: do we still have a banking crisis? sunaina: we have a banking crisis in the tail end of the u.s. market, yes. there is policy research that shows if you look at the debt and treasuries held by u.s. midmarket and regional banks, if you put that against the fed value at 9%, so edges not take you long time to estimate what the ftse will have to put into these banks -- fbi see -- fdic
2:19 am
will have to put into these banks. otherwise you already have the contagion. i have got people asking me, what do i not gained by moving my money to a jp morgan or wells fargo or large bank? it is hard to argue against that. tom: that is the market contagion and contagion across the financial sector. what is the economic contagion? sunaina: the economic contagion is a heightened tightening of credit conditions, ending standards to businesses and people -- lending standards to businesses and people, which will cause a harder landing, something that we'd thought was not in the cards a few weeks ago. if something broke in the economy and it came faster, we got it. we have a potential hard landing scenario where the recession fears are more real, hence the markets repricing the loosening, but the inflation itself,
2:20 am
disinflationary pressures take a few quarters to play out. tom: how convinced are you that the credit suisse risks have been ring fenced in terms of the broader european banking space? we have seen the downside of about 16% in the last month or so. is there a buying opportunity for some of the healthier european banks? sunaina: it depends on the call you want to take on these at1 bonds. they have wiped out 260 billion dollars worth of the asset class which is being worked through. there is potential litigation for credit suisse ignored by bondholders. have to wait for that to play through. if you want to believe that you will be safe because they will wipe out at1's in the next crisis, you have got to do that. you need to look at what happens to that entire additional tier one capital debt. tom: when it comes to the tech
2:21 am
space, there has been this rally year to date fueled by expectations that you all get cuts by the end of the year from the fed. you pushback on this view, so can we deduct that you do not see tech as a safe haven? sunaina: those who are making that call are trying to go in while the going is reasonably cheaper, and that is a brave call. however, you will continue to see consistent discount rates, which are not good for companies in the near term. can you gain momentum? within the volatile six months, so if you want to buy and hold and are not afraid of bounce offs where the tech has a cautious approach, we will wait and see that we have a positive and the terminal rate and then decide whether you want to go along tech or not. we still have a lot of tech companies bringing earnings into check, layoffs happening beyond any other sector. tom: you are still cautious.
2:22 am
what are you telling clients in terms of how to position for the months and weeks ahead? sunaina: three calls. it is sensible positioning. be in cash. short duration should pay you quite well. we have t-bills close to 5%, certainly a good place to stay and hold. the third is the energy market. you see what oil has done and it has come down to the early 70's and you still have this potential tailwind to the economic story globally of the china reopening. you have russia and ukraine being a pressure to supply. and you have got the u.s. saying they will not use the reserves anymore to keep oil prices artificially low. you have three potential tailwinds and oil at all-time lows. not a bad place to have a better. tom: oil, energy, and keeping
2:23 am
some reserves in cash. you for joining us. sunaina sinha haldea, global head of private capital advisory at raymond james. coming up, we will bring you more top lines from chinese leader xi jinping's ms. -- chinese leader xi jinping's visit to moscow. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:24 am
2:25 am
tom: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get the first word news with madison mills in dubai. >> president vladimir putin says russia is ready to discuss china's initiative for ending the war in ukraine. chinese president xi jinping's three-day visit to moscow mark says most ambitious attempt yet
2:26 am
to play the role of peacemaker. after the talks, he is expected to speak by video link with ukraine's president zelenskyy. the u.s. and its allies have rejected beijing's blueprint. bloomberg has learned that asset management giant vanguard is planning to complete its exit from china. sources say it has notified the chinese government of its intention to close its final remaining unit in shanghai. it is also planning to exit a robo advisory joint group. and the french government has survived two no-confidence motions, enabling the immediate adoption of president macron's unpopular pension reform bill without a full vote in parliament. in a tighter than expected result, one motion was only nine votes short of the number needed to topple prime minister elisabeth borne. the reform included raising the
2:27 am
minimum retirement age by two years to 64 and it has triggered weeks of protest across the country. northern ireland's democratic unionist party says it will vote against rishi sunak's post-brexit trading agreement with the eu. this suggests the impasse over power-sharing will continue, a significant blow to the u.k. prime minister. the house of commons is set to hold its first vote on the agreement tomorrow. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am madison mills and this is bloomberg. tom: thank you very much. coming up, russia passes saudi arabia as china's biggest oil supplier. that's check on the markets. futures pointing to gains in europe of 0.6%. across asia, relative relief most pronounced in the financial stocks and a rebound in additional tier one bonds traded in the apac region.
2:28 am
we look ahead to the federal reserve, that decision coming through tomorrow. markets pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the fed. we currently have rates between 450 and 475. swap markets pointing at pricing in rates will move down to 4% by the end of the year. also looking at what is happening in the currency space as we lead up to the fed decision. the bloomberg dollar index currently gaining over 0.1%. the pound at 1.22, and we check on the bond markets once those u.s. treasuries start trading. the whipsaw we have seen across the treasury markets remains in i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house.
2:29 am
i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck.
2:30 am
and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a check out angi.com today. angi... and done.
2:31 am
tom: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie in london and these are the stories that set your agenda. pimco and invesco are among the top holders of credit suisse securities that were wiped out by the ubs takeover. the california bond giant lost 340 million dollars on its at1 position. sources tell bloomberg that u.s. officials are considering ways to ensure all big deposits should the crisis widen. the fed begins its two day meeting. plus vladimir putin says he is rate to discuss xi jinping's blueprint for ending the war in ukraine with the chinese leaders in moscow for a three-day visit. let's check on the markets, relative relief across the asian session. banks doing well and at1's trading in the apac region are
2:32 am
rebounding. you have had reassurance from regulators in the u.s. and u.k. that he would not get a full write down of at1's in those jurisdictions, diverging from the pictures and switzerland. we lead up to the federal reserve decision. there is the benchmark msci asia-pacific, gaining 0.5 percent. futures in the u.s. up 0.1 percent after closing in the green yesterday, and european futures closing up 0.5%. investors breathing a sigh of relief after ubs's shotgun wedding with credit suisse. gold back below the 2000 level after it popped up above 2000 on monday. and brent is trading at $73, down a full percentage point. over the last 12 months, brent
2:33 am
is down 40%. goldman sachs have revised their call. they had a forecast of $100 a barrel for brent to the end of the year, revising back to $94 a barrel. russia has surpassed saudi arabia as china's biggest supplier of oil. imports of almost 8 million tons of crude from russia last month to china. this as refineries take advantage of cheap barrels to feed rebounding demand. joining us now is nadia martin wiggen, partner and chief analyst at pareto securities. thank you for joining us. let's start with the demand, the increased demand we are seeing in china for russian crude. pricing is a factor and geopolitics is a catalyst as well. how much does this restructure the global oil market in the years ahead? nadia: in our view, it is a relationship that is going to stay between china and russia
2:34 am
and is going to spend on the gas side. this is where most of the market has been waiting for a collapse in russian production along the lines of what we thousand the second quarter of last year and we do not believe that will happen. there is too much demand for oil in china with the reopening after covid did not buy out all the russian oil it can. tom: the chinese demand is clearly aiding moscow and vladimir putin, putting money into his coffers as the war continues. if we step back and focus on the questions on the headlines of the last few days, the banking crisis emanating out of the u.s., the linkages to what has happened with credit suisse, the financial conditions that have tightened, the impact that could have on the global economy. to what extent does that have an impact on the demand impulse for oil? sunaina: -- nadia: it is raising concerns, but in the immediate case, we do not see a huge effect yet.
2:35 am
it is taking off 100,000 barrels a day here and there in europe, and in the u.s. in terms of demand, there is less certainty, but the big shock that happened last week is we had finally the iea and opec admitting that russian supply is not coming down this quarter. the iea raised russia's outlook for this year, but they need to do another 1000 barrels a day because that demand will stay. in addition, the iea reported an inventory bill of -- in the whole of last year despite a 220 million barrels that the spr released, we only built up by 87 million barrels, so this is a massive amount of oil being suggested that has not been priced in at all until now. we think those numbers are wrong, but if they were to be proven correct, we will see that
2:36 am
demand has already been much more hit by this banking crisis and what is happened in terms of higher interest rates. this is why oil markets are slashing in scale. tom: is it rational? brent is down in the last 12 months. the increase in supplies and inventory according to the iea, pretty solid at this point. is that mean the selloff we have seen in oil is rational? we have further to go? sunaina: it depends on what happens bid we have the opec meeting coming up in two weeks and opec is facing a lot because when we look at how things are right now, they look sloppy for the next month. through april. then things start to improve and going into the summer and as china continues to be open, china has been buying one million barrels per day, less oil in the first two months of
2:37 am
this quarter, than they were in the fourth quarter of last year. things had been slower, but china we expect to regain momentum. opec needs to look at that and say, things are looking better, especially in the third and fourth quarters of the year, but maybe we need to be proactive as we said we are going to be and cut a little oil in the second quarter to stave off further declines when we have all this turbulence in the financial system. tom: if they go ahead with the cut, does that put a floor under the prices at these levels, or do you get prices back up to $90 a barrel the likes of insects are forecasting by the year end? nadia: it depends on how much they decide to cut. it is possible they complete in the 90's, but that will be driven by demand, not driven by an opec cut. we do not think that opec wants to just push the oil price to $90 a barrel when we are in such
2:38 am
a high interest-rate environment. tom: and to the question of inventories, do they get drawn down later this year? on some levels, this is an oversupplied market. nadia: if we were to accept the iea inventories, we find it difficult that all those inventories would be drawn down by year end. there are 21 million barrels of oil allegedly in canada that we have discovered that other consultants. and analysts cannot find. . so if they keep those figures, we will not draw it down. if they reassess, opec thinks we only build 17 million barrels in that same period, but if they reassess to the opec numbers, we would draw down these numbers and we will be in a much tighter market situation by the fourth quarter. tom: nadia martin wiggen, important and useful insights for us. partner and chief oil analyst at pareto securities.
2:39 am
wti at $66, a drop over 1%. coming up, we will continue to bring you the latest on the fallout from the credit suisse deal and saga. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:40 am
2:41 am
>> we are very confident that the capital and liquidity positions of the euro area bank are satisfactory, with significant capital ratio and liquidity coverage ratio in excess of requirements. tom: ecb president christine lagarde expressing her confidence in the european banking system. the same press conference, she
2:42 am
added that all banks should follow the liquidity rules imposed after the 2008 financial crisis. for more on the banking sector, let's bring in bloomberg's swiss bureau chief. as the anything new on the regulatory side that officials are mulling at this point? >> at the moment there is not anything new coming from the regulator or the government, but some questions have been asked over the last 38 hours and it has blurred into one, but some questions have been asked about the comments that have been made by the regulator and the whole idea that switzerland can afford this emergency situation that allowed it to bypass the shareholders on the one side and some competition loss. for example, the head of the finra, the financial regulator, said in a situation like this, market stability trumps the idea of competition.
2:43 am
in switzerland, there are questions being asked about having this massive ink now that has lots of assets, -- about having this massive bank now that has lots of assets. the options are limited. obviously, there are other options for customers. they can go to the regional banks and other smaller banks that global markets know about, but those are some of the questions at the moment. tom: small and regional banks are not the flavor of the month right now, so that is another question. claudia maedler on the fallout of this historic deal for ubs and credit suisse. the questions around the lack of consultation for the shareholders. joining us for more details on the banking space is elisabeth rudman, mobile had institutions at dbrs ratings. good morning.
2:44 am
this is the first time that a systemically important bank has failed since and post the tfc, the great financial crisis, and yet the markets broadly have shuddered but not freaked out too much. does that surprise you given what has happened? elisabeth: there has been lots of volatility in the markets the last couple of weeks. as you say, this was something of a test for the system, an unexpected one in many ways because although credit suisse had been going along with a series of problems in terms of compliance, issues with its regulators, no one had expected the trigger to come as it did for the failure of the bank. on the one hand, it is good that
2:45 am
this situation has been managed without a complete disorderly collapse under credit suisse because there are discussions about treatment of at1 and other important issues like that, but frankly there had been a disorderly collapse of credit suisse and we would have been in a completely chaotic situation. it is the case that regulators do have somewhat more tools than before the last financial crisis, so indeed, the bail in instruments, the instrument created after the financial crisis to help absorb losses, so there are questions about how it is carried out in practice, but the reality is that things will continue, there will be along restructuring that ubs will need to do, there will be many challenges in that, but i can
2:46 am
see a path forward that it will be an orderly path. we should be able to return -- tom: i was going to say that path forward, because i want to get your views further on the additional tier one bonds. we have seen a rally of the at1's traded in the apac region today. you do not think that has been fundamentally undermined by this action? elisabeth: it was quite helpful that the regulators, the ecb, the resolution board in europe, and also the bank of england, came out with their own statement quickly that they would adhere to the normal treatment, that shareholders bear the losses first, and credit suisse's capital structure with the at1 bonds bid that will go a long way in
2:47 am
reassuring investors, and these were risky bonds, intended to absorb losses. that should not be a surprise. tom: how much damage do you think this has done, if at all, to switzerland's status as a banking hub for now and the future? elisabeth: it is interesting. i suppose he could put it in the context of that it is not a problem. this financial crisis is not just affecting switzerland but banks in the u.s. and in other markets. ubs still is the largest global wealth manager, and now it has gotten bigger with the taking over of credit suisse. i do not think it will immediately change their position of the swiss banks and
2:48 am
their role in wealth management, but maybe things will shift over time. it depends on what happens in the. upper banking system. tom: and you have made it clear that regulators have more tools in their disposal and the regulatory framework is one that is flagged by our guests in terms of their confidence around the european banking system, but are there any banks that are a concern for you and the team? elisabeth: i would also point out that you leaders have got more tools, but i think there will still be a lot of questions once the dust settles on all of this as to what further improvements need to be made in the regulatory framework because the things that happened with the u.s. banks and the treatment of unrealized losses in securities, the basic interest rate risk management by banks clearly varies. there is more that needs to be done. i do not think we are looking at
2:49 am
this point -- we are not identifying other particular banks in the crosshairs, but didn't -- but in this kind of environment where there is lots of volatility and a lack of confidence, it is very challenging. so it is difficult at this point to be entirely sure when more problems can come, but it will work its way through it and as mentioned, we are certainly in a better position than we were the last financial crisis. tom: where do you think we are in terms of this crisis? are we near the beginning of the end, the end of the beginning? where are we? elisabeth: very difficult to say. it has only been over one to two weeks. if you think about banking crises, they take a fair amount of time to work through.
2:50 am
the complexity of the issues will put confidence to fully return, so i think we are still somewhat at the beginning, perhaps at the peak of the beginning, but still away till the end. tom: upon for breath in terms of the peak of the beginning. we have been reporting that regulators in u.s. are looking potentially at raising the cap in terms of protections for insurance deposits. is that a move that is needed at this point? would it restore stability or what it just ramp up more hazard? elisabeth: that is the challenge that regulators have always had. any kind of measure that you introduce, there will always be other consequences, unintended or undesired consequences. it is inevitable to some extent,
2:51 am
and they have to balance the risks from different sides. in a number of markets that deposits have preference, there are very good reasons to believe that maintaining depositor stability is key to confidence in banking systems overall. so certainly they would be wise to look at measures that could help that. tom: elisabeth rudman, thank you for that analysis, mobile head of financial institutions at dbrs morningstar. -- global head of financial institutions at dbrs morningstar . we may be at the peak of the beginning around this angst of ranking systems. the french government narrowly survives two no-confidence votes. we discuss what this means for president macron's conference --
2:52 am
controversial pension reforms. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:53 am
2:54 am
tom: the french government has narrowly survived two no-confidence votes. the opposition parties fighting emmanuel macron's unpopular pension reforms. the bill raises the minimum retirement age can now be signed into law. let's bring in caroline connan. how close was the french government to collapse last night, and is this reform definitely going to be adopted now? >> the french government was very close to collapse. it was a very tight vote, and intense afternoon for the french prime minister. the motion needed 287 votes to overthrow the government.
2:55 am
they got 278, so basically the french government survived by only nine votes. very intense afternoon, very tight, and the reason it was so tight, it was because when the french prime minister used the decreed to force the pension reforms stray, it angered the positions, so even some republicans were supposed to support the reform voted in favor of the motion. two options are left for the opposition. one is a review at the constitutional court that should be done today and would delay implementation of the reform, and another more complex system would be to organize a referendum, but that requires 10% of the french electorate, 4.8 million french people, so that is a bit of a more complex process to block this reform. tom: and as you well know, you
2:56 am
are living and breathing this. do the strikes continue? caroline: the strikes continue and you can see them in the streets of paris. piles of garbage everywhere after the vote of no-confidence. you had prop around the upper house -- you had protests around the opera house. you had the protesters basically tearing up the garbage and you have garbage scattered around the streets of the opera house, around the office in central paris. you cannot even drive there anymore. you have to walk because there is garbage everywhere in the streets. of course, this vote of no-confidence that did not pass will probably anger protesters over the next few days. there is another general strike
2:57 am
planned for thursday. even with the turnout at the last protests have gone down over the past few weeks since the first protests in january, we will see if this protest on thursday, the numbers go back up. tom: caroline connan in paris, thank you. let's check on the markets briefly before we get to the end of the hour. futures in europe gaining 0.8%, a positive session in asia. a sense of relief for now with these markets and most at1 bonds trading in the apac region have rebounded. u.s. futures moving up 0.2%, and in europe, it is a solid session. stay with us. bloomberg "markets: europe" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:58 am
2:59 am
3:00 am

40 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on