>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide, silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology," with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: i'm caroline hyde in new york. ed ludlow is off today. this is open bloomberg technology -- this is "bloomberg technology." we will bring you the details from capitol hill on

tiktok. and what about the latest on the cash app unit as they plunge in trading? plus lights, camera, apple? spending billions to break into show business. more on their plans to raise their hollywood profile. that and so much more, coming up. apple in the big tech, seeming like a haven on the day? even though they continue to worry about solidity and the banks. stoxx 600 is down on the day. dragged down by the banking stocks in europe. keep an eye on europe, the pound is up 4/10 of 1% as we see the bank of england like the united states federal reserve hike. that's the macro picture for you technology investors out there. looking at going, though, this is a haven of choice or a move that we see as they remain cynical around the banking industry? up 5% over the course of this

trading day alone but we dive into the micromuse that are so important on the day. >> major movers, we are seeing a lot of that green on the screen coming from the technology space. your biggest index contributors, apple, amazon, nvidia, kind of in focus here. talking about the downside movers, those crypto stocks are getting hit hard but not necessarily for fundamental macro reasons. the block story is fascinating. hindenburg research as a short report saying that they are concerned about lock, formerly known as square. sending shares down 13.5%. we are of course waiting for a comment from them as well. coinbase, getting quite the hit after the sec yesterday put them on notice when it came to some of their offerings. this was important in the crypto space. crypto etf's have been a big issue as to whether or not they

could pass as a real moving vehicle. the upside is interesting. here in congress you are seeing snap shares rally. snap is one of the major benefactors if tiktok's banned on government devices stateside and around the world. netflix, look, there's no fundamental reason, but a 9% rally is nothing to scoff at. one of the biggest the volume trade today. rumors about funding from apple that it is something to keep an eye on. caroline: thank you. the key story of the day, the tiktok ceo testifying on capitol hill as lawmakers call for a ban. here's just some of what he had to say earlier. >> i have seen no evidence that the chinese government has access to that data. they have never asked. we have not provided. >> i find that provide cash for bosporus -- preposterous.

>> i have seen no evidence. our commitment is to move that data into the united states, stored on the american soil by american company and overseen by american personnel. caroline: the testimony continues on capitol hill. alex, is there anything new? anything in the arguments and nuances that we hadn't heard before? quick she's coming in with a lot of what we have heard before and it doesn't seem to be wooing what we knew to be skeptical lawmakers who started the testimony that is still ongoing behind me in a packed room, trying to establish the tiktok connection to china. he was queried. who prepped him? anyone from bytedance? how often does he talk to chinese executives? has he heard from anyone within the chinese communist party?

establishment from skeptical lawmakers to try to connect tiktok to china. he has come back with a lot of the facts we have heard before. that he is working on porting the data to the u.s. and that he does not talk to the chinese communist party. i will tell you, that based on him being cut off by a lot of these lawmakers, based on the time is the chairwoman has not allowed him to respond to russians, doesn't seem like he's making any headway with the group in the room. caroline: it's notable as we go to the room and have that wonderful live blog going on. i know you are contributing to it with our other reporters. at the moment it says a georgia republican once again talking about deadly tiktok challenges. that seems to be the emotive subject. children in particular? alex: it was. the room got very quiet earlier in the day when a number of videos of users talking of

suicide reflate for the committee in those seem to be the emotional heart strings that the lawmakers are pulling on. what is tiktok doing to protect children. shou came back with moderation content policies but those were responded to by the lawmakers with that's not enough, i hear what you are doing now but what are you doing now. brief recess -- caroline: brief recess being called. you did a wonderful piece around the relationship between the u.s. and china. an important dinner last night. peter thiel was there, we understand. what are lawmakers, who are lawmakers listening to aside from the leader of tiktok? alex: that's right.

it was this line of anti-china sentiment. basically peter thiel compared tiktok to the u.s. homeless problem. saying it is something we can't fix. folks on both sides of the coast in the u.s. definitely not on the side of tiktok. i can tell you that in terms of allies on the hill, they have had a few. we heard jamaal bowman speak at an event on the lawn outside the capitol building. there are not many voices piping up. we heard during the hearing from the other senators who were coming out with strong calls to continue to try to ban tiktok. caroline: thank you so much. jim himes is on the house select committee. financial services were overseen. jim, great to have some time with you.

in february you said that you were not quite there yet. do you feel that you have learned more for a decision yet? >> today was one of the moments where a witness was pete up, not able to answer questions. people expressing emotion. i said this before. i have worked a lot in national security and tiktok is not on my phone or anywhere near my phone. it is probably more accessible to the chinese government than most platforms. shouldn't be on anyone's phone. outright ban, this is a deep rest moment. the american people need to reflect on the equities associated with saying sorry the federal government is not going to let you use this media. my question is where is the limiting principle. what if we get really angry with belarus?

we need to think about what we need to do about this. the ceo this morning offer the idea of moving servers to the united states, and think you said. they could contemplate an ownership change. before we get on the bandwagon of band access to a particular media we need to reflect on the limiting principle. what does that established with respect to the power of the federal government? caroline: feels like you are lining up with your constituents here, 150 million people use the app. what would you like to see? what a nice balancing act for you bsl off in some way? what do you think to the chinese reaction, the commerce secretary saying it's not going on unless we approve it? >> i'm drawing on what i know of the first amendment.

the chinese are good at breaking into everything they want to break into. nothing only ones good at that but here we are calling for a ban on tiktok when we haven't as a congress been able to put in place a federal privacy regulation. facebook, instagram, these entities have our data and they sell it. the first thing we should do is pass federal privacy legislation and really get into the details of what a good solution might be with respect to tiktok. maybe it is moving their operations outside china or an ownership change. it's one of those moments where it seems we have accomplished something because we renamed french fries freedom fries because we are angry at the french. but this is a moment with a lot at stake where maybe we should be more deliberate. caroline: how optimistic are you the deal can get done on a bipartisan basis? >> at the end of the day, focusing on tiktok,

they are absorbing sentiment right now and they should think about what they might do with respect to the ship operations are located. privacy is an area where the congress has been remiss to say the least, right? i have two daughters who live on social media and it appalls me to imagine that pretty much anybody out there can buy their data. some of their most intimate interactions with commercial retailers. it should happen but sadly, we had some progress in the last congress but it hasn't happened. my advice would be to continue to study tiktok and think about the right way to hander let and let's get some federal privacy legislation done. until we do that it's hard for us to step onto a soapbox and decide we will take a massive moral high ground on issues of privacy. caroline: the evidence for you, the tiktok ceo says there is no evidence that china has access

to the data. do you believe him? >> i don't have information either way. i can tell you that as a member of the intelligence committee, if the chinese want access to that data, they will get it. they might not tell tiktok but they are adept at breaking into anything they want to break into . something to think about, even if they were located in the united states, i wouldn't tell you that i'm not confident that they couldn't get it there, too. or facebook's servers. i don't know the answer to the question that it's more complicated than simply where there servers are located. caroline: another thing that has been complicated is the banking system of life -- of late. you are the former economic disparity fairness and growth regular. how concerned are you that these companies have access to the funds they need and security in the overall banking system in the united states? >> i feel very good about it.

i was a freshman here in 2009 when we thought that these huge banks were going to fail and there was a real risk that they would. the sector itself is very strong . we saw problems at three or four banks. regulators and the federal reserve stepped in confidently to handle that. we have to think about a world where depositors only deposit the guaranteed amount in small and medium-sized banks, creating pressure for consolidation in the industry and i think that today we might see stock prices moving up and down in the coming weeks. my sense is that overall the banking system is safe and that depositors should not be worried about their deposit. caroline: congressman, thank you for your expertise. coming up, shares of locke plan -- block plunging and we give you the details as to why. this is bloomberg. ♪

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it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david! connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals. okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management. caroline: betting against jack dorsey, hindenburg research strikes again, if forensic research outfit and a well-known short seller, this time claiming that the company that jack dorsey runs was facilitating people who frozen government stimulus during pandemic. title is down 20% on the news. hindenburg research claims that

after two years of investigation they understood that cash app was facilitating billions in government payment fraud, basically multiple people using the same bank account to claim government stimulus. hindenburg says that these were brazen red flags and down to shortcomings in compliance. hindenburg also takes issue with other areas saying that cash app is over inflating the amount of users it has and they don't like the way they are charging merchant every time you swipe your card and is critical of the $29 billion deal that was made to buy after pay. so far we have yet to hear from block's own and -- only executives but we know that some analysts have weighed in already , saying that they are worried if there's any kind of activity like that and what it does for investor sentiment. from their perspective the shares are good value. someone's got to have more information than this. jenny is helping to break down

the story. so thoroughly. so far we have still not heard from block. you have reached out. so many others have. what do we know in terms of other implications to the business model here. we know that there have been regulatory concerns versus their venmo and the like. >> there are a few different pieces that folks are keying in on with this. any implication that criminal actors are using their cash app to facilitate transactions is, you know that's bad news. that's when you get regulators looking at you. they could impose different kinds of penalties. monetary or different remediation activities. something investors will key in on an want to see further proof of and hear from the company on, whether or not it is true. obviously first. and if it is what steps are they taking to try to stop it? that is probably the number one thing that folks are keying in

on. the stuff that folks laid out his stuff that was probably known by the investor community. it's a very lengthy report at the end of a two-year investigation that is sending kind of chills through not just fox stop at the entire payment industry. caroline: this company has fallen from grace in terms of the market capitalization perspective since the area of 2021 when we were very much caught up in covid concerns. was that to do with some of these worries around the broader ecosystem and ultimately the governance of it? >> i think it's another example of a macro issue weighing on a stock. during the pandemic the payment processors solve volume ballooning with folks spending a lot more money with folks doing

a lot more online shopping and doing more mobile money transfers. cash app has really taken off in the past few years. that has slowed down. it's hard to keep lapping that intense growth. they have had to lean on new areas. it's not block specific. what is block specific today is this accusation that we could see widespread fraudulent use of cash app that would be very specific to this company and why their stock is down as much as it is today. caroline: hindenburg research targets to send -- tend to see sustained pressure on their stocks. jenny, thank you. from toshiba to ai and vv, we will run you through all the other things going on in technology. next. this is bloomberg. ♪ go production. go faster and safer. emerson automation software helps breakthrough medicines

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caroline: the nvidia chief technology officer says the new revolution will present multiple opportunities going forward his own company. he spoke with tom mackenzie. >> every new technology is an opportunity for doing good things and for doing bad things. we definitely need to be aware of this and be ready to mitigate this. with nvidia, we worked very closely with regulators. to the extent that we could we make sure that our technology and products didn't get into bad hands. we can trace it down to the end user, but we made sure that the things we sold our things for our not using them in the way that would damage society. >> you are confident that the

terms of the framework of ai, nvidia was doing enough? >> more than enough. we are definitely not doing anything in a gray area. it's very black-and-white. we are not getting into the gray area. we are developing technologies that will enable the mitigation of cyberattack in the data center. now there are people even more dependent on that data center financial structure that will enable the provisioning and mitigating of a cyberattack within milliseconds or seconds or within a few months. caroline: you have customers -- >> you have customers all over the world. how do you serve your chinese clients and customers given the band by the u.s. on those ships? how do you continue to serve them?

>> first of all if you look at the chinese market, it's a big market and they had better have that accelerated technology. they will use a reasonable amount of energy. there is a ban on the restrictions around some type of chips in the market. we have chips that comply with those regulations. we are definitely not violating any regulations of the u.s. government. we have products that can serve the chinese market within the rules that are imposed by the u.s. government. caroline: sticking on the theme of ai, startup character ai, allows people to create their own chatbots. let by injuries and horowitz, with a $1 billion investment. sarah wang will join the board

as a part of the deal. toshiba accepting a buyout offer from a japanese consortium, heading closer to ending years of turbulence for the company. with six domestic financial institutions participating in the buyout as led by the japan industrial partners. the bid has sent shares rising in new york. the most since september. finally, checking out ford, it is protecting losses in the ev business that will grow this year as they spend big on new models to take on tesla. accumulated losses over the past couple of years, the company is keeping their current year profit forecast unchanged and coming up we will have an interview with the ceo on the hill today from tiktok on the actual security concerns at stake. let's take a look at the social media companies that have been born in the united states the

force that is a bit of a competitive edge. if there is a tiktok battle, what does it mean for the likes of tiktok? meta is up more than 3.5% as technology rises. this is bloomberg. the new chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam who make...? ...everyday products... ...designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more... plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases! and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas... ...a brilliant reality! the new ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the

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caroline: welcome back to "bloomberg technology." 4:30 p.m. in london right now, stocks finishing the day on european trading and critical to has the latest. -- kriti gupta has the latest. kriti: you saw the french and german indices ending flat. the major country to pay attention to today was england. the ftse was down .8% on the

back of the boe, saying look, a lot of concerns about recession but it looks like we can avoid it or the time being but the natural reaction of the equity market was to pull stocks lower. in the fx market there was a real read through. looking at 123 with strength and the pound as we talk about what could lead to more weakness in the dollar now that the fed is no longer the most hawkish central bank around. sustainability is about 120. good news there for the pound. the yield story hikes that you are seeing around the world are not in higher yields with banks continuing to hike and tackle inflation and continuing to drop. something to keep an eye on there. bringing me to those first

individual movers, banking stocks are crucial with ubs taking another hit. they continued concern into what ubs with credit suisse under the umbrella looks like. how much risk are they taking on? down 2.8% after a reshuffle over at their investment bank with new leadership under greg yet. sanofi is one of the few stocks soaring on a successful trial for a key drug for lung cancer. caroline: and pointed extent nope. thank you. getting back to technology, the tiktok ceo giving testimony on the hill, worried about security concerns about the app. shou is trying to broaden out the conversation not just on their data previously, but in top social media industry at large, saying that project texas is for all data in the u.s. and

more than companies can promise. is tiktok the only app of concern? the founder and ceo of a startup that provides technology solutions for customers dealing with data creep, helping them to comply with regulation. what's so fascinating about the wording that you have been doing , you reviewed 3500 company websites and basically you are seeing tracking pixels from their parent company with some government websites. tell us about how difficult curtailing data collection will be for tiktok. 1 thanks for asking -- ivan: thanks for asking it's a great question. it was how many pixel tractors were collecting sensitive information without ever asking for consent and often without the companies who they are running on being aware of those

pixel truckers being present. it's very, very common. it's not just a tiktok concern. we have seen google, meta, microsoft, all kinds of tech companies present their. what was really concerning is that bytedance, tiktok, backed by executive orders but still present on absence. caroline: i ban on tiktok in the united states, does it do anything? ivan: it will not necessarily solve all the problems once and for all. one thing that is concerning is there is no governance around what actually happens with the data being collected. it's less of a band of tiktok and more of having clear rules for all the players to follow.

for auditing accountability and responsibility for those who do follow the rules. caroline: just for those who are not to currently adept at understanding what embedded pixels really mean, what is it, what's happening, what is being teased out in terms like miniay balloon's. remember the giant one the air force shut out of the sky -- shot out of the sky? these are tiny balloons, buried into websites. we use them every day. they watch everything you do, everything a person does. we often see that they are grabbing everything they are typing into the forms, passwords and credit card numbers.

maybe your health records. it's a really big concern. what we have found that they are actually doing. caroline: if we went to executives at not just tiktok, maybe soft meta, what would they say they are using them for in a legitimate manner? ivan: they are legitimate business tools, companies need to market and attract customers and grow. they have a legitimate purpose. but they don't have is clear rules. very often we have found that they are doing way more than collecting -- and collecting way more information than anyone realizes. caroline: can you put the genie back in the bottle? you have looked at 3000 companies across 27 states, state governments are being implicated here. what is to be done? can you get

up in any way or is it more about disclosure? ivan: there's no way to bully, no magic wand to solve the problem once and for all overnight. but there are definite steps. some jurisdictions have already taken steps. in europe it is gdpr where the people are held accountable for breaking it. it's a continuous form of driving clarity around what needs to be done. like what has been done in the financial sector. the financial sector is a lot more robust now because of regulations. caroline: you have of course made the data public. have any u.s. state governments come to you to ask what can be done? what are you doing with the data that have managed to bring to life? ivan: we have been

contacted by various department of justice teams in various states and just like in the article published a few days ago that mentioned the states where they have validated where tiktok was present to collect information, they were quickly remediated to make sure it's not there and they removed it. there are technical measures that can be put in place to prevent this. but there is no priority on or a clear fairness as to how common the issue is. caroline: let's also bring in our own audience for a moment. we went to them ultimately asking -- do you care very much about tiktok and whether or not they should sell off to a u.s. company? whether the even use the app? i have to say, seemingly our audience, technology focused audience, half of them don't use the app at all. i'm interested in whether you think people care about the data . the consumer.

how would you say to them that you should care about where your data ends up? ivan: that's a very big question. why do we care? wide to care is, first of all, freedom. when it is important, protecting freedom to me personally is really important. i'm based in and to and right now there are concerns in the talks that there was interference by china in a canadian election process. many other topics being brought up in the current congressional hearing with the ceo of tiktok where the data is being collected or has been accessed for surveillance on members of the military, members of sensitive groups of people. personally i see definitely a big impact on us as people. maybe not immediately right away, but over time it can

definitely impact all of us. caroline: ivan, thank you for bringing us your data. thank you. meanwhile let's get over to another chinese data company. tencent is surging, most in about or months, traders citing unfounded talk that the new trainees are mere -- chinese premier tour at the headquarters. there was a visit earlier today according to the official chat of local state media outlets, the rally comes after the chinese social media leader came out yesterday with a resumption in revenue growth news. coming up, we will talk all things crypto regulation and more. of course, we are watching shares of coinbase as they get sec notice on that intent to sue the everett offerings. we will digest all of that with

sonali basak. this is bloomberg. it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david! connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals. okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management.

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caroline: let's talk hollywood for a moment. apple is trying to raise their probe -- profile in lure subscribers to their streaming service. spending a billion dollars per year to release movies into theaters according to sources. how big of a step is this to be teaming up with scorsese and the like and bringing into theaters for us to go see? >> the significance is they are

increasing their budget for full feature-length movies, theatrical, movies they want to put in movie theaters, pretty significantly. they are in talks over a movie with scorsese for a quarter of a billion dollars. probably the most they have spent on a movie during their tenure since they launched in 2000 19. thinking bigger and grander. they saw how coda has done, their other shows and movies, winning awards, hospers and the like. they are very excited about this. they want to keep getting and making new content as a way to keep people buying subscriptions . it's quite significant according to the reporting from thomas and lucas. caroline: to that point, they have obviously had success, awards, haven't managed to lure people into the streaming service. there are 200 million more over at netflix. what do they think is marketing

is going to win out? >> right now it is clear that they are getting a lot of their watchers and subscribers on plans. t-mobile is my phone carrier and my plan comes with apple tv+. i'm not paying out of pocket for it. they have some sort of agreement the let's me and other customers get it for free. many apple ducks these days come with free free months of it. used to be a year free. there is a bundle where it is a part of that. it's not clear how many. clearly they want to get wider with it. how to do that is the better and better content they are not able to get from competitors. scorsese is obviously a big name. there are other big names. there is an idris elba tv show coming to tv plus as -- that i saw as i was scrolling through it last night. there was ted lasso, that was

quite popular. everyone is talking about severance. they have cultural hits on their hands and they have so much cash they want to do more. the only question i have is how do you square that with the budget cuts in the rest of the business but i guess you really have to keep investing and they put the bucket for the tv plus investment into the r&d budget. caroline: interesting nuances there. cinema chains doing well on the back of the news today. thank you. digging deep into crypto. from new york, this is bloomberg.

caroline: let's talk crypto now. we have already talked about block earlier in the show. let's turn to coinbase, also under pressure. they received a notice from the sac -- sec on enforcement actions coming against it. shares coming off by another 20%. sonali basak helped break the news with analysts. basically one third of net revenue from coinbase could be affected. sonali: we have seen sec target

different companies for different products but this seems to be encompassing multiple parts of the business at the same time. wallets, staking as service. you have coinbase executives fighting back and saying that the sec has been neither fair nor reasonable throughout the process. we have seen the talk -- tone change over the last year. things are escalating and coming to a head when it comes to different parts of the business. as you can see the stock is reacting to the news. this is an intent to take action but no action yet. what's interesting here is we don't know where this goes the sec perspective but coinbase says they welcome a suit and legal action if it escalated. let's see if the two sides really reach a reasonable solution for certain the direction of travel has been in the direction of finding out the meaning of crypto.

caroline: oppenheimer analyst city unhealthy environment is why they are downgrading the stock. full disclosure on my part, my husband is a senior manager over at coinbase. nevertheless, we are digging more into this. chris, you have expertise and of course have a focus on coinbase as you use to serve in previous administrations and you understand the conversation that needs to go on between politicians, regulators, and innovative businesses. 60 times in nine months. what's not working here? >> it's a great question, thank you for having me. i think you broke this news yesterday. first of all i think that stepping way back, this is a part of the broader journey that any innovative company is going to have, particularly one that is ultimately trying to disrupt

the status flow of the system and regulators who effectively want to maintain the status quo. understand that this is going to be a long journey. i was struck i the fact that, and i think coinbase made this clear, they effectively went through the s.e.c. process. it was reviewed in a part of their process of becoming a public company and laid out their business model. usiness model. now they are coming back on something that had gone through the review process. speaking as to why they reflected so much confidence on where they are in the process going forward. it's an atmosphere here, in point of your question, we are basically getting regulatory action and clarity through enforcement. that's not the best way to develop policy. i was around way back when in

the mid-90's when democrats and republicans worked together to pass the telco act, which came together to become the internet based in the here in the u.s. and other places in the world. policy as enforcement is not the best way. sonali: recognizing that coinbase is the largest u.s. crypto exchange, publicly traded , given the blessing of investors in the sec, to your point what would happen if it goes down the road of the sec cracking down in a much more significant way? do you think that the ultimate goal is to stifle the crypto industry given the publicly traded nature of this company, this would be the way for them to do it? chris: well you have this action with a lot of activity taking penalties around the banking with institutions reportedly taking steps to make it harder and harder for the crypto sector to do banking in the country. there was an electric capital report from the capital fund

here in the valley that just the other day was released showing that there was one million high quality engineering jobs on the table the big related over the next five to six years. the real question is if they will -- not if they get created, it's if they take lace in the u.s. or migrate abroad. look around the world. the u.k., the eu, japan, australia, dubai, for zillow. all of these places are moving pretty aggressively to put a regulatory perimeter around crypto to give it the clarity folks are looking for. specifically with attempts as they have stated to become crypto hubs they understand the technology will play a critical role in the future of financial systems and they want to make sure they own the real estate. in sharp contrast to where the u.s. is and ultimately those developers and entrepreneurs will follow where they are going

i fear as a american that we are ceding our leadership role. the technology is already taking place. hundred million people across the world using. is it here or abroad? caroline: they haven't done a good enough job making people feel comfortable with this technology. chris: that's a fair point. part of it is the crypto space themselves making sure they demonstrate that utility. 40% of people do this, they will use stablecoins to protect themselves from the system they currently don't have access to. no question they need to make that case but it is important to remember that we are in a phase in the technology, early 90's for the world wide web. early 2000's for mobile. some of those same questions

would have been posed as a part of the pace of the technology. ain 1968? now you are at a lease for a can be used. caroline: interesting. chris, sonali, thank you for that. do not forget to check out our podcast. much more conversation online. join us on twitter. this is bloomberg. ♪ the new chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam who make...? ...everyday products... ...designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more... plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases! and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas... ...a brilliant reality! the new ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours.

>> stocks soaring. a broad rally on our hands. our equities price to perfection? we are going to dive into it. i am pretty dead. bloomberg markets start right now. >> a big report rally on our hands. s&p 500 higher 1.2%. take a look at the bond market. there are weird things happening.