>> stocks soaring. a broad rally on our hands. our equities price to perfection? we are going to dive into it. i am pretty dead. bloomberg markets start right now. >> a big report rally on our hands. s&p 500 higher 1.2%. take a look at the bond market. there are weird things happening.

the two year yield sustainably below 4%. 3.88. this is going to be a big deal as we talk about how hot the federal -- how hawkish the federal reserve is going to be. his 25 basis points still price in for may? is it a good thing for the bond market are they looking ahead to bocce? the dollar lower as we see the move in yields. again it all comes down to inflation. of the core the inflation story is the energy story. brent crude down .6%. it has been creeping higher the last couple of days. it is something we are going to be watching. i'm going to bring it back to the equity market. it is a massive bite. tech leading the way 100%. microsoft, apple, nvidia are your largest contributors rallying from 1% to 3% telling you broad and led by big tech.

a part of the story is the market and tied to banking and central banking. central bankers willing to restore confidence in the market. >> credit suisse problem is smaller giving ubs will take over credit squeeze so this -- credit suisse. obviously, we have uncertainty on the global scale. we have to continue to follow that closely, observe it closely and see the impact on the situation. kriti: in overall equity market charges higher today. less look into why. welcome. let's talk about this rally. a lot of grain on the screen. it does not make sense on the back of federal reserve hike. why are the stocks moving the way they are? >> is astounding

if you think about the headlines very seeing to see stocks rallying so much, especially in the tech sector. as usual there is a lot of parts to this. we can always name a million different reasons why it may be stocks are moving one way or the other. positioning is one big part of it. if you are position offensively and you have to be chasing that is a part of it but as you mentioned the bigger picture is stock investors are in fed cuts in the future or even the mere idea of the fed pausing. that long-awaited fed pause we have been talking about for a long time and they are taking comfort in that. one narrative that is interesting to be thinking about right now is all of the banking turmoil that happened is enough to maybe push the fed to pause, but not enough to push us into a recession or severe downturn.

that is a narrative that requires threading of the needle and there are million caveats we can add to that, but it is an interesting way to think about visualizing -- about potential rally we have seen. kriti: s&p 500 hit before thousand level and bounce back. it is striking that tech is back in fashion. is take up again? -- is tech hot again? >> when everybody was piling into tech shares because they were seeing it as a fortress or companies with strong balance sheets. that is the same think i'm hearing right now. so whenever i am asking about tech and why it is doing so astounding in the last couple of weeks, especially in the midst of all the bank turmoil, they're pointing to the fortresslike balance sheets the companies that have a lot of free cash

flow and we know all of the different reasons. i spoke with hogan and he said you have to think about it as companies that may be do not need to go to the capital markets or maybe they do not need to go to a bank. they have a lot of cash already. maybe some of the players that are more likely to make it through this in a stronger way. kriti: justine dynamic force sure. walking us through on the broad and surprising rally for a lot of investors. equities rallying despite 25 basis point hike. there's a cohort of wall street that think it is a mistake and they should a pause instead. dr. marc giannoni, always a pleasure to have you on the show. there is a school of thought here that the lending restrictions, the lending standards that are going to be restrictive to prevent another svb or signature bank

situation are going to do the job of the fed for the fed. what extent is that true? marc: good afternoon and thank you for having me on the show. to some extent, the tightening and living conditions and credit conditions that may result out of the svb situation will do some of the job for the fed. chair powell alluded to that yesterday saying today is not much of a need to raise rates in response of a tightening in financial conditions and lending conditions. we are coming -- if you look back two weeks ago, the economy was indicating a lot of strength. all the indicators we have had since the february meeting were strong and suggesting possibly that the fed have to raise rates by 50 basis points. what they did yesterday was contemplating the trade-off between on one hand, the very

strong micro data. and on the other hand, the new financial turmoil in the u.s. banking system that is providing restraint. 25 basis points was the middle ground. kriti: the middle ground sure but i want to poke holes in the argument a little bit if were talking about making standards grading credit crunch, doing the job of the fed, what is the timeline on that? thus making standards required congressional approval and washington is not known for its speed. what timeline are we looking for that to show up in the economy? marc: first of all it will look back a year -- if you look back a year we have seen considerable tightening in lending standard in banks. the survey of loan officers produced by the federal reserve has indicated very sharp tightening in lending standards from july through january.

with a new svb situation that may add to that and create further tightening in lending conditions but the point the fed has been trying to engineer some of that, like a slowing of the economy in order to bring inflation back to 2%. as part of the normal transmission mechanism when you raise rates, you are likely to see a cut in credit. the question as to what extent has svb and the turmoil -- terminal rate has calls likely to add to the tightening in lending standards and credit restraints. on that front we know from the long historical record that that takes time for the economy to respond to such a tightening. it is not typically happening suddenly. kriti: how to talk about the dot plot because when we talk about

the move, it feels like the uncertainty back into the dot plot is something to take note of. ranges from 2%-two .5% in the next couple of years. walk us through your thoughts on the dot plot. should it be something to worry about that the forecasting mechanism is so broad? marc: yes. all fomc members come from different backgrounds and viewpoints and assessments. as a result, disagreement of the what the appropriate level of interest rate should be. that said, if you look at 2023 there is only one individuals who put a dot below 5%. nobody else is pretty much on board to have rates at 5% or above -- everybody else is pretty much on board to have rates at 5% or above/ a very -- a lot of support for

keeping restrict of stance or policy this year. kriti: certainly something we are watching. we thank you as always. i want to get to first word news with john holland. >> has filled the nordic countries bid to join nato. finland is now just awaiting approval from turkey and hungry. many new countries acquires unanimous approval. u.s. labor unions are pushing back on white house efforts to lot european union and japanese firms that have subsidies available in the administration's new climate law. unions including the united auto workers worry providing concessions other nations would undermine the goal of bringing jobs of investment to the u.s. and iraq from plans to create a domestic electric vehicle supply chain.

a judge in new york says trump's habit of calling for protests -- last week from coddle supporters to protest what he described as imminent arrest from a separate case. the judge says that has been perceived as some as an incitement of violence. bloomberg has learned the manhattan grand jury invest getting over hush money payment plans for the delaying about whether or not to indict the former president. the ceo of tiktok facing lawmakers who want the video app and in the tiktok. shou chew defended his company. he says beijing based on her bytedance is mostly owned by international investors and most of his board members are american. he says the company has spent $1.5 billion to address data security concerns.

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it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david! connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals. okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management. kriti: this is bloomberg markets. even with the foam in hiking interest rates by 25 basis points. stock market investors may be still convinced that the fed is wrong. you are seeing a rally of 1% on broader benchmark to discuss the fallout here. let's bring in investment management head of u.s. macro, sonia meskin. traditionally the fomc hikes you do not see this kind of grain on the screen. what is going on the? sonia: i

think the markets are interpreting it as a dovish hike. we are seeing some pricing out of further increases in terminal rate down the road. it seems to me banks are still underperforming by the way. some of that has to do with treasury secretary comment yesterday as well. about not considering a blanket guarantee for u.s. deposits. however more broadly fed chair did mention yesterday that some of these events could be -- can impact economics and therefore it is going to affect the policy as well. this is something the market is reacting to today. you can see duration in stocks over performing. kriti: in the next few weeks, who is the more important person to listen to? chair powell or janet yellen? sonia: do not know they were that out of sync of each other. what a palace that is the systemic risk exception -- what

chair powell said the systemic risk will be considered in future episodes. it make a deposit guaranteeing -- i think i would've helped bank stocks relative to what we're seeing today. kriti: let's put into your point the macro picture. the idea here that euros are actually not as volatile as they were pre-fomc. the two year yield that has stayed below 4%, is that something that is in the rearview mirror when it comes to the ripple effects for the equity market in terms of valuations? sonia: the date is going to be important. we are putting the data on the back burner now. implement for instance an inflation which could be based more backwards looking but i do think of this price action we are seeing today could possibly reverse. kriti: in the strong data is

also the risk of quantitative tightening, quantitative easing. going into the fomc meeting there was a cohort on wall street that said what the fed is doing in terms of backstopping the fbi see is in some ways quantitative easing. does that have a ripple effect into the equity market or those two unrelated issues? sonia: it could be. i would say chair powell try to isolate the two breaks recently but in practice it is hard to do. the fed balance sheet is growing now yet again despite the quantitative tightening. the facility they rolled out has a longer term than the discount window. kriti: speaking of the discount window a lot of those folks who did access it, if you start to see how your banking standards and more of a credit crunch, which again seems to be the

growing consensus on wall street. how much time is not going to take to actually affect the real economy when it comes to growth? sonia: it is difficult estimate and i think the fed and the private sector acknowledged the difficulty. i do think part of what you are seeing in terms of pricing in longer end of the curve and terms of fed policy for later this year and perhaps reflected as the equity market pricing as well is the fact that this is going to take -- develop throughout the year. we may continue to see lending conditions tightening throughout the year. it is going to translate into a different policy path there with the fed is projecting earlier. kriti: are you watching the lead from the ecb, boe? fell at the federal reserve was central banker to the word but it almost feels like christine lagarde is

central banker to the world. do you see that dynamic shifting? sonia: i do think the ecb was a little bit more hawkish than perhaps the fed yesterday, but to some extent these pegasystems are interconnected. the regional banks situation and deposits in the u.s. is something that is somewhat specific to what is going on here, which is perhaps why chair powell sounded more open to the idea of broader economic conditions. kriti: i have to put you on the spot. when we talk about fed cuts going to the back half of the year, the bond market pricing that in, is the stock market actually leap pricing at inn or is it more of a reflection or paring back of the losses we saw last year? sonia: this tension is not new. we heard earlier this year and certain points last year as well and i think that push and pull

between what the fed is saying and what the fed is putting into the economic projections and what the market is pricing, even the equity and bond markets are pricing going to continue throughout this year. kriti: certainly something we are going to be keeping an eye on. a lot of moving factors end up in the air. still ahead on the show we discussed comments from citigroup ceo jane frazier as she weighs in on the banking crisis. >> the banking system is pretty sound we are talking about a few banks, you heard it from sherman powell today, this is not a spread across the entire banking system. this is not like it was last time. this is not a credit crisis. this is a situation where it is a few banks. ♪ - i'm nervous. i'm excited. (paper ripping) - [speaker off camera] okay, let's see it.

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>> they could be smaller institutions that have similar issues in terms of being called without managing the balance sheets as ably as others have done. it is likely there may be a few of them. we certainly hope there will be fewer of them but then again it should be manageable. kriti: this is bloomberg markets. i am kriti gupta. you're just listening to jane frazier speaking last night with david rubenstein at the economic club of washington. joining us now is sonali basak.

jane fraser is one of the few that have commented on the banking crisis. but that is a context for us. sonali: you had, when she is talking about the idea that this does not need to be a full-blown issue when you look at what is happening with regional banks. even if we saw pain were going to a few other banks. but it's also interesting is what she said about individual banks. she said svb could find a buyer pretty soon. when we look back the situation was looking tenuous and now we are finding more it resolutions to more banks that are facing hiccups as things go along the way. another important thing she said as far as first republic goes, citigroup is not a buyer when it comes to that. as you see from the stock price reaction, the situation looks relatively stable.

for all things are not out of the was, there is a sense that there are solutions that can be found among the government and private sectors. kriti: what is also striking about her comments is the evolution on bank runs is interesting. she put that the context for us but elaborate here because someone like jane frazier to make these comments is pretty big. sonali: it is and is especially because you think of how big transaction bank they are. they move money by the trillions quickly across the world. bank runs we are thinking about his wealth management or consumer deposits running quickly because of the age of mobile banking. remember what we saw with 40 billion overnight essentially at silicon valley bank is the fastest you have seen you heard the same thing from secretary yellen as well. what does that mean for regulators in terms of how they are thinking about the future of regulation and capital being held as banks are potentially's ethical to face faster runs?

that is a down the line question. we are sitting with a lot of banks facing more near-term problems as a function of interest rates not as a function of the bank runs, which as we can see can accelerate quickly when you think about consumer confidence in banks. kriti: i'm glad you brought up just rates. she said it is not a credit crisis. there is a concern among wall street it were not seeing it right now, we will in the next couple of months. sonali: the thing i kept wanting to this week was apollo's comment about how tight the credit conditions have gotten before these bank runs, before the banking crunch we see among the regionals, credit conditions were as tight as you saw in 2008 and if you look at it earlier bank loans, survey data from the federal reserve can get more data in april. the problem here you are in conditions already tightened. that was before we saw these issues.

what happens next? kriti: certainly a lot to digest. an exclusive wall street week roundtable on the banking breakdown coming up this afternoon. david westin how to stabilize the financial sector. tune in on all of our platforms. this is a bloomberg. ♪

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>> european union leaders have endorsed a plan for sending ukraine will million rounds of ammunition over the next 12 months to counter the country's russian invasion forces. ministers approved the plan earlier this week. ukrainian president thanked leaders for there initiative earlier in a video call. in france more strikes against macron push to reform the pension system. public has rotation schools are being impacted. it is happening more than two

months since french unions began a series of walkouts and marches. he was a racy termination from 62 to 64. a new report in the journal of the american medication association also found patients with pre-existing conditions like asthma, diabetes were more likely to develop long lasting covid-19 symptoms. the world health organization defines a covid symptoms that continue or develop three months after the initial infection. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> welcome to bloomberg markets.

green on the screen, a broad rally on our hands. all session highs it was a tech lead rally so you are seeing nasdaq outperformance is on the s&p 500 but still higher than .8%. nothing to stop at when you look at that move. for me it is the yields on the bond market striking. 10-year 3.45. two yield sustainably below 4%. that's going to be crucial as we talk about how much of the bond market is pricing in rate cuts as some of the federal reserve is saying. of course moving with the rate markets is the currency market. the dollar weaker by .3%. the weakness not creating a bid in commodities. crude trading with a 70 handle. >> some of the energy stocks have been lagging. your point about technology, remember when economic uncertainty which shipped investors away from tech dogs and here we are with the renewed appetite for big tech and the

nasdaq 100. within the doubt you are seeing gains in microsoft, apple outperforming. netflix up .8%. bloomberg reporting that apple's plan for the article movie releases as they continue with her hollywood ambitions. not all names are higher. investors continue to watch the coinbase story wondering about the legal role ahead with the sec. those shares down 14%. you talked about the lingering uncertainty. first republic watching all the time a good example of that. the early gains we saw in a regional banks have been debating and first republic is self down 7% at this hour. kriti: investors across wall street so looking at the banks and hoping this week's move by the federal reserve and regulators restore the confidence in the banks that they like. take a listen. >> i take 25 basis point hike

riesling by the fed is a vote of confidence. it goes back to the question is my money safe think the fed is injected that but of confidence. janet yellen saying we are not going to do a blanket insurance but behind that is implied, we will be there if it needs to be there, but why do this now if it is not necessarily needed? >> let's get more perspective on all of these market moves. joining us now with more. the story of the market today alluded to it. this willingness to go into big tech the choppiness continuing in those banks. >> we continue to see technology in these growth shares turn into a safe haven especially not just today but over the past few weeks as we have seen the bank stresses and not even when you're thinking about big tech, but also if you're at the chipmakers.

over the percent. looking at names like nvidia, up 3% as well. when you're thinking about each of stocks, that really got be endowed last year. if you look at the philadelphia semiconductor index it was down 35% last year. we have seen more investors continue to go back to that particular segment of technology. when i speaking with my sources they feel that both well when you think about technology and the growth. they're still concerns about the trajectory of the economy and the fed but when you look at technology still serving as safe heaven type trade. kriti: something we're going to keep an eye on the. we are giving, from blog. blog has been the target of the latest report from hindenburg and they accompanying the report was designed to deceive and confuse investors and exploring legal action against hummingbird research.

down 15%. hitting bird research most recently putting out a report when it comes to at on a group and taking the. police targeting block formally known as square down. want to broaden this out a little bit and talk about the economy here. we got the inside about the stock market. i want to go into the room of the question which is spread does the federal reserve go next? he was part of the call where you saw a potential pause in the fomc. we know they raise the rates by 25 basis points. i want to come to you on that call. did the fed make a mistake? >> time will tell. i do not think it made a huge mistake in the end game here, but i think they probably felt like the market had a price 25

basis points surely ahead of the meeting and they took the option to move higher. one of the arguments to follow through on that call they're probably concerned about inflation expectations and whether or not those will go higher, if they saw they were jeopardizing the hard work they had done to gain credibility and longer-term inflation and interest rates will potentially go higher. also, to maybe get it done now so we do not have to do much later. they took that option. we will see in the end. the big question is whether or not the tightening in credit slows the economy more than what officials think. there so much uncertainty. and no way to know right now the impact just yet. >> this another longer-term

question, trying to figure out when, if this i suggest not just a pause is warranted, but some kind of reversal on the raise is warranted. looking at the typical period when rates hit the pause and then subsequently the easing begins. you have been doing analysis on how you think that will play out, or delete longer than a normal period we see. -- arguably longer than a normal period we see. kevin: the shifts of the narrative of didn't get to the terminal rate and going on extending cold for quite a while while inflation moderates. we see how long she can wait. our forecast is the economy to's a recession later this year and then inflation subsequently starts to come down in the back half of this year. they start easing in early 24.

if you look back over the past tightening cycles back to the early 1980's, typically between the time you and rate hikes and start cuts, is on average seven months. about half a year or so. there is a risk to the forecast that may have to pull forward the timing of that to later this year. certainly markets are aware of this. you have seen an aggressive different forecast than what the fed production showed yesterday by looking at the fixed income market. this may be three cuts by the end of this year. kriti: back to the banking story. read getting headlines. ubs aiming to close credit suisse deal. put that into perspective. in terms of the credit crunch or

the more restrictive banking standards that i think consensus is welcome shortly. what kind of effect in terms of rate hikes will that have? kevin: once the fed sees inflation has started to move in there favor and the data, which i think is going to be decades later this year, and the data starts to turn more convincingly. right now the data has held up remarkably well. two weeks ago we were thinking the fed may be more aggressive and go 50 basis points at yesterday's meeting. there's lots of volatility. i think the next big report will be where you're earlier guest talked about was the fed senior loan officer opinion survey. the public will not get those data until may 8, a monday, but that survey will be available to the fed at the meeting in early may. they will have a good indication of how much more tightening and

standards there are relative to what we saw in january, which was pervasive tightening in lending standards throughout early part of this year. that was pre-the latest venting crisis. -- banking crisis. they see further tightening in standards, there will be spillover to the economy. and to touch on what you brought up in your first question, the risks are to the downside of expectations. the fed still has a soft landing scenario, which is not shocking that the fed expects growth to remain positive. it is hard for them to start signaling they are more room to go there expecting a recession. i think the risk are -- our own forecast is for a mild contraction but the risk are pointing to something potentially some the more severe. kriti: some think we are going to be keeping an eye on. we thank you as always.

coming up we dive more into the headlines from blog as they respond to the report saying they could potentially explore legal action. block shares down about 12% on the day. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: this is bloomberg markets. i am kriti gupta. time for our of the hour. block responding to hidenberg research. the full statement here were blog says we intend to work with the sec and explore legal action against hidenberg research for the inaccurate report they shared about our business today.

hidenberg is known for these types of attack designed to allow short-sellers to profit from a decline stock price. these were directly from the press release from the block communication department saying we are a highly regulated public company with regulatory disclosures and competent in our products. after releasing the statement you did see block shares repair the earlier laws. there are so down 18%. surly off of there session lows. talk to us about this from the hidenberg perspective. >> it is interesting what block is saying about hidenberg. say they are known to do these maneuvers to profit off of there short-sellers. hidenberg is known but over the last three years since 2020 when

bloomberg analyze what they have done, they published reports of 30 names. those thoughts have taken a beating on the day of the report about six months later it remains lower than that market. there is validity to the fact that investors think these reports -- take these reports seriously. hidenberg has gone after block especially focus on the cash app, talking about inflating the numbers, active users. this is an app that gained a lot of popularity in the post-pandemic when a lot of these platforms like venmo and cash app and others have gained a lot of benefits, then they are also talking about facilitating processors used for drug sales into sex trafficking and the actions you have seen from space in massachusetts and ohio trying to call backs of these prattling transactions and the nichols into other areas including purchase of after pay

that blog required for $29 billion. it is a wide ranging report. investors is taking it hard. it is still down 13% even after block's rebuttal. not seen -- >> to your point this is an interesting choice by block to have a relatively short, response. you mentioned that reports of 30 companies estimated says 2020 targeted by hidenberg. very clearly putting the ball in hidenberg's core. block is saying some of what is being discussed here, we are a regulated business. >> they also say some of the report is designed to deceive and confuse. in block defense, hidenberg says it took them two years to put together the report.

they are saying they are public company. a regulated company. they are trying to back back the allegations. there compliant levels have not been great, but there is compelling argument made by hidenberg and nate anderson. we would like to see how block rebuts all the allegations and specific details. >> really helpful on this breaking news. time for a quick break. when we come back we break down the latest from the ceo hearing in congress. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> tiktok ceo is currently defending his company on capitol hill as lawmakers call for a

national ban. here are some of his testimony from earlier over the denial china has access to user data. >> i've seen no evidence that the chinese government has access to that data. they have never asked us. we have not provided. >> i find that preposterous. >> i have looked and seen no evidence of this happening. in order to ensure everybody here and all our users of commitment is to move the data into the united states to be stored on american soil by an american company overseen by american personnel. >> more perspective. thank both of you. we got a since they are on how that message was being received in the moment. what have you been hearing in term of the messaging out of the tiktok ceo today? >> i want out of the hearing room and i can tell you it has been a contentious discussion.

lots of incredulity from them lawmakers of shou chou question. he has been coming in with familiar answers about the protections around american user data, about the complexity of disconnecting from china. i will say that was not the only question of whether data can get to engineers in china. shou chou answered another question from a business of saying it was a complex answer and there were chuckles in the room. adjusting the trust shou chou has been trying to use is not going his way after these fears contentious questions from lawmakers. >> there is commentary coming on the geopolitical pond. ceo saying bytedance was founded by chinese entrepreneurs but has evolved into a global enterprise since its founding. does this set the precedent for

more scrutiny on the chinese front in american tech? >> i think that is a great question. let's not forget the u.s. is not the first actor when it comes to thinking through the national security implications of having social media companies with a foreign parent operating in the country. china mood very early on this. you cannot use facebook in china. you cannot use twitter in china. you cannot use google in china. in essence the first shoe to drop was china locking u.s. social media companies the chinese market behind the great firewall and it is the u.s. which is now playing catch-up and considering some of the risk of having tiktok operating with so much viral success here in the united states.

john: as we look at the live testimony right now, the question around the back that playing catch-up when there are 150 million americans already using the app and some of them making there way to washington to say, we use this every day. how does not come to the story? >> tiktok was out inference capitol hill and i was there with the representative jamaal bowman from new york. they put some of these craters up in front of the media to make this argument. hey, look we make our business. we find our community on tiktok. that is an argument that fallen flat. we have heard from lawmakers before the hearing to how many viral videos you have does not trump the national security concerns. based on the hearing today for the lawmaker spent the first 20 minutes trying to establish the types of connections that shou chou has with chinese executives and asking him whether or not he

has any communication with anyone from the chinese communist party to which he said no, that tied to china seems to be overruling any kind of emotional plea from the 150 million users or the traders that tiktok brought into the hearing room at shou chou's testimony today. kriti: life of the geopolitical expertise. we thank you for bringing that story into perspective. i want to mention the stock market reaction because tiktok is not a stock but not chad is an one of the benefactors by the scrutiny. snap higher than 3%. for something to highlight. as a consumer of tiktok and a star, your take on the tiktok story. jon: it is a complicated one. the fact that we have seen u.s. companies put the brakes on going in china. the fact that it's gotten so big.

it is a comic story. you are right, getting back to the story the enthusiasm we are seeing today. kriti: more markers coverage ahead. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ alarahhh ahhh

>> the day after with all the fed rate decisions out-of-the-way. the other central banks making clear that they are maintaining the heights, the markets reacting and pivoting to the upside. romaine bostick alongside katie, taking you out to. the closes afternoon. >> whenever they heard from jerome powell yesterday was bullish and you have seen muted movements in the treasury market as well. romai