>> donald trump will be arraigned on tuesday. he will plead not guilty and the new york state supreme court house in manhattan. law officials are meeting today to discuss details. a grand jury determined there was enough money to proceed with charges. the justice department has sued norfolk southern over the train crash in ohio. it seeks to ensure the railroad

pays the full cast -- full cost of the environmental cleanup. no response yet from norfolk southern. pope francis continues to make strides as he fights along infection. he is expected to leave the hospital saturday after tests global news powered by more than . he has been hospitalized since global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in wednesday. 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm john hyland this is bloomberg. >> welcome aboard markets. >> the s&p is up by .8%.

institutional investors have been coming into the market and retail has been coming out so watch that. leading the way is the nasdaq one hundred up by 1%. what a quick check on the bond market. the two-year yield down three basis points. >> in terms of the sector stories that are played out over the last few weeks, they are also playing out today. tesla is higher right now by 5% heading into the weekend. we will be watching out for key deliveries data from the ev maker. macron is moving in the other direction and it's interesting in a week when the outlook

encouraged investors, the reality of tensions with china are taking a bite out of the stock today. financials are mixed. a willingness on the part of investors to buy-in on some regionals. in canada we continue to watch a major telecom deal after to deal -- two years. they finally got the thumbs up for the $20 billion transaction from the federal government. we will continue to track market reaction to that. >> the latest reaction to u.s. inflation data. we got a reaction from susan collins in an exclusive interview with michael mckee. >> i had expected early in march that i might think we would need to do more work and the banking stresses and what i think is a possible response of banks in terms of their own liquidity needs has influenced that.

it is certainly one of the important things to factor. i continue to see given the resilience in the economy that there is a pathway we can bring inflation down without a significant downturn. jon: mike mckee joins us now. the market seems to be rallying on the idea that there are signs of inflation cooling. is that a story markets will continue to get behind? >>so many things have come up random basis. we all have t-shirts that say we survived the great banking the market is very data dependent -- the fed is very data dependent. it appears the fed is making

progress on inflation, but they still have a ways to go. the pce index numbers out this morning show us what we are seeing is a steady but slow decline and you have headline pce inflation at 5% and core at 4.6%. both of those are more than twice as high as the fed target. we will keep going, the fed will raise rates one more time than probably leave them there through the end of the year. alix: i should point out that inflation data is different than europe. do you think it's possible we will get central-bank diversions with the fed and ecb? that's going to be a crazy event if that happens. > it depends on what you define diversions. the ecb is at 3% and the fed is

at 5%. there's already a dichotomy between the two. it isn't really going to be a diversions so much as the fed pausing and the ecb catching up. we have to give the ecb credit, they started from 50 basis points below zero. there is still some room for them to go. alix: if you find my t-shirt, send it over. i missing it. to get more on how today's economic data affects the markets, it was a crazy quarter. our next guest is with franklin templeton. it was definitely buying the dip for the first quarter in equity. is that going to work next

quarter? >> i don't think so. i think gravity exist and as we have seen margin pressures further sound the alarm, there's going to be more than understanding of where we are. we're are hearing a lot of stories about folks who are bearish and the reality is when you have the nasdaq closing q1 at 20%, it's hard to square that with the market action. i think some of that froth is going to come off in the next quarter and later throughout the year. >> let's put it back in contacts with how we started on the inflation front. the market today feeling encouraged about inflation data. mike mckee talking about his interview with susan collins and her message was the fed has to stay the course on inflation. you feel like we are going to see more signs of inflation easing? >> i think we will see more headline come off and i believe we are past peak inflation, but

it is a very different journey from going from 9% to five percent to 3%. notice i'm not even mentioning 2%. getting a dental level where they are comfortable pausing is going to take a lot. the current fed funds futures are absolutely mispricing what's going to be the reality of the fed resolve. >> do you want to take on risk here? or do you need to go to safety? if it's the latter, what a safety? >> i think it's time to hoard some cash. it's fairly attractive to be in money markets. i think a lot of investors are saying that based on flow data. i'm happy to be part of the consensus and say when money market yields are over 4.5%, that's a safe place to be.

beyond that, i would say don't look at growth versus value. look at cyclicals and offensives. that's important because bank stocks are value stocks but also cyclical. that's where investors can be a bit more mindful in terms of getting defensive and staying the course when we do have what i believe is going to be a recession manifesting itself later this year. jon: she asked you about the buying the dip quarter, but is there a possibility that on the earnings front, things hold up relatively well as we roll through the year? certainly we got a lesson last year where there were large concerns come up at earnings story arguably played out a little bit differently. i only ask that because if we are waiting for the economic leg lower, is it not possible the earnings could stay reasonably solid for now and that might

make a case for some of the stocks that were the better performers in the first quarter? guest: i think there's a possibility that if anyone comes out and says their forecast is 100% right, they will probe would be wrong. when i look at even today's data, we saw consumer spending start edging down. that's going to impact companies that were able to pass the buck directly to their consumers and therefore keep their margins elevated. that's going to encounter more more friction. i think it will definitely start coming through and guidance, then it's a matter of perception. this market is very much hearing what it wants to hear. when that changes is when we can see the leg down and that could be very sudden. alix: when you say cash, is that

somewhere in the bond market? straight up money market fund? guest: investors should make that decision depending on their particular condition, but for us we would say it short and t-bills and money market would be a good definition of cash where you're getting the yield and also holding assets that have a lot of safety behind them. alix: thanks a lot. we appreciate your time. coming up, the trump indictment is giving the spac link to the former president a big lift. this is blue burqa. -- bloomberg. ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website

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alix: this is bloomberg markets. our stock of criminal case against former president trump. traders are betting that the indictment will bring traffic to investments. this spac had a nice jump in november 2022 when he announced his candidacy for president. jon: the indictment coupled with the former president staying focused on truth social is the recipe for more engagement that i think some were curious about. the idea that maybe this indictment becomes a rallying cry building the prospects for more engagement on the platform. alix: it also shows that we are not out of the retail flow jam

that helped bed, bath & beyond or gamestop. it feels frothy or along those points as well. jon: we should remind people that and getting to the finish line of getting this deal done with trumps business has been quite a long log and we have seen that on dwac coming into today. >> the trump indictment is top of minds. >> it is been quiet here outside of the dozens of journalists on the ground with every expectation of each headline. i think what we are going to see is mood will get a lot more

animated over the coming days. we expect to see trump arraigned on tuesday. that's the latest reporting. cnn reporting that trump will to new york city on monday. then the question is how does this look? does he try to appeal to his base by walking in the front door that you see behind me? doing a perp walk, taking a mug shot? fingerprints than the arraignment. again we expect that on tuesday, or will we see something more subtle? jon: still seeking clarity on the kinds of charges that might be front and center as well. >> these charges remain under seal. there is reporting indicating there could be more than two dozen charges that have been filed but we don't know what they are. what's going to be important is what they are because hush money payments by themselves would not

necessarily be illegal. the falsification of business records carries may a misdemeanor charge. if the falsification of business records is used to cover up or further another crime, that's where we get into the potential felony charges. at the moment, we are speculating on what's going to come down from the court. we don't know and we will be waiting for any sign of that. jon: thank you very much for that. coming up, tim o'brien will be joining us on the political ramifications of the indictment. stay, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i have no comment on that.

i'm not going to talk about that. jon: this is bloomberg markets. although president biden will not comment on former president trump's indictment, our next guest has a few thoughts. tim o'brien writes that the former president has challenged our political, academic, and civic institutions, and now it's the justice systems turn. he's been writing on trump for decades. it's nice to have you with us. we were talking before the break about some of the key questions remaining on what specific charges the former president will be facing. what is the number one thing you will be watching for in the indictment? guest: what we don't know is what i'm looking for. there has been reporting that there are more than 30 counts in the indictment. that would suggest it goes well beyond the charges that we have all assumed are already in their

pertaining to falsification of business records and campaign-finance violations that rankly up to this point it is felt like weak tea from a prosecutorial standpoint. undoubtedly, there's going to be meet around those issues. to the extent that bragg has gone beyond that and assembled more pieces of evidence in a deeper fact pattern than we already know, that's only going to be answered by the indictment getting unsealed and until we see that, it's a guessing game. alix: i'm curious to get your take on what we will learn the most. by fellow republicans, by his supporters, by how reporters handle it, other areas of the law. what is going to be a leader take away that we can extrapolate? >> the entire trump era has been an attack on civic norms and institutions in our faith and expertise and trust in one

another. to me, the biggest take away is how we as average americans respond to all of this. i think by and large, they are there to ensure the broad parameters of a civic society and that has been under assault since january 6 and it continues the calls for violence that trump invokes. i don't think he is going to pay a political consequence for that. he has a very deep hold on about 30% of the republican electorate that is going to make him a force to be reckoned with in primary season. the problem is, he is not a national candidate. moderate and independent voters have long learned they don't have much of a taste for trump. the party has to figure out how it gets traction in a general election while it is settled with him in a primary. at least his force informs other candidates during the primary.

legally, he is in a tar pit. he's going to be tied up in lawsuits for years most likely. this is the least of his worries. there are two substantial investigations inside the justice department that could prevent him from running for office again. jon: digging a little deeper to the issue of proving a committed felony because this is something you have explored in past pieces as well, can you walk us through how that works? what you will be watching for? guest: the standard in a criminal case is high. you have to prove intent, that the defendant actively new he was committing a crime, ignored the law and committed the crime anyway. that is not the standard in a civil suit. he has a robust civil suit facing him that could put him

out of business permanently in the state of new york, but it will not land him in jail. a criminal charge potentially can land him in jail but because that outcome is so severe, the burden of proof is higher. bragg and his prosecutors will have to have bulletproof evidence that trump was an architect of bookkeeping fraud at the trump organization, he knew it was wrong, and he did it anyway. the evidence of that is irrefutable in the mind of a jury. that's why he put this through grand jury to begin with. he has already road tested it so it's unlikely he will come to court on the charges we know he is bringing without a high belief that his evidence is sound. alix: i wonder how you look at this opening the door more action against hunter biden? guest: i have absolutely no idea. jared kushner occupied the white house with massive conflicts of

interest and he has continued to use his white house connections to get investors to his funds and nobody has such that. that will probably come into play if hunter biden comes into play and you wind up with a relentless attack on the children of prominent politicians. that's par for the course. alix: thank you so much. a must read on the terminal. we are heading into the end of the quarter. the dow jones flat, but the s&p is still looking at a gain of 6%. the nasdaq up 16%. it is been a handful of tech like amd, nvidia. jon: the theme of artificial intelligence has really dominated and a lot of people trying to figure out not just whether the tech themes overshadow economic uncertainty,

but whether the bigger tech names can manage the storm better than others. alix: thank you for having me this week. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have two hours left in the trading day. tgif. >> two hours left in the entire quarter. it has been a turbulent first quarter, it ends with gains. the s&p has gained for an eighth time in 10 days. you think about the volatility and it's been a pretty healthy