i'm john hyland with the first word news. pressing allies to pitch in to help ukraine. the funds would go to short-term aid, anti-drone systems. the package aims to provide ukraine with long-term support to help modernize its armed forces and meet nato standard. russia accused ukraine and alexei navalny that claimed a blogger. he had become widely known for strong application including the complete destruction of the ukrainian state. nasa tapped astronauts christina

koch and victor glover and joined by reed wiseman and jeremy hansen. it will return humans to the vicinity of the moon for the first time since the apollo program. so is having the first woman, person of color and person from another country on the moon. sanctions on russia threatened to limit gasoline. those in the u.s. are risking rising prices. the boast -- the most boast structure since the summer. u.s. stockpiles at a nine year low. the drop may tighten supplies and boost prices. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm john hyland. this is bloomberg.

jon: welcome to bloomberg markets. kriti: 4106. nasdaq seeing severe underperformance. i wonder how much is a risk of moved we will dive into it visual movers in a moment. the ism data changing. 10 year yield, sustainably under 3.50. at 25 basis point hike, yield down, shy of four basis points. that is pulling down the dollar. the bloomberg index weaker by 2%. check out the oil market, 84 handle on brent crude, a 6% move

for that commodity after opec talking about a surprise cut in production. walk us through some of the movers. jon: in canada we have been watching the tech resources drama with glencore's hostile pursuit of a company. the glencore team is going to stay very much in pursuit. analysts wondering if there could be a higher offer on the table. we are continuing to watch the latest with wwe and the bigger plan to put it together with ufc and the market reaction suggests rolling that equity into the new company was a bit of a sore spot for investors, but nevertheless interesting for the combined company. higher oil prices resulted in a huge surge in energy stocks. chevron at the top of the

leaderboard, and exxon along for the ride. kriti: a massive move. oil session, 84 handle on brent, not far behind wti. opec announced cuts giving headaches for central bankers. fed president jim bullard reacted. >> this was a surprise, the opec decision. whether it will have a lasting impact will have a question. some might feed into inflation and make it more difficult. jon: another wildcard. let's talk about the energy market. let's start with how this came together in the first place and what we learned over the last 24 hours. julie: on sunday opec-plus did a surprise cut. we had heard they were going to

keep output the same but they cut by one million barrels a day or so they say they are going to. markets were taken by surprise because one million barrels a day is going to impact crude markets. analysts are analyzing will this only impact second half of the year there was really going to be this the supply crunch because china demand was going to be back or will we see that sooner in the summer driving session when we were expecting much of a demand or supply crunch but now there might be because summer driving season is peak demand for the u.s. kriti: it is putting a hedge for the's to build the spr. -- the biden's administration to rebuild the spr. julia: the more important question is, if oil will stay at $100 a barrel. if it stays, that could lead to

demand destruction or that prices are so high consumers are going to spend it. goldman sachs is one of the only banks if not the only bank that has changed the price forecast on the opec-plus news. a lot are saying yes but they are shifting forecasts just yet. kriti: julia fanzeres -- fanzeres all over that. what does it mean for the bond target? we have two things to factor in, a higher oil price and lower bond yields. what is the figure concern? >> in the near term, one of the things i am looking at is what the bond market is pricing in. you look at interest rates going

out of the curve, the bond market is pricing in a pivot that looks like a recession. the oil news today is definitely something to factor in. but if the bond market is right, that is the bigger concern. jon: what do you think that means in terms of action by the fed going forward? alex: the market has been pricing in cuts pretty much since july. they have been proven wrong by the stronger data and continually pushing out the cuts . the thing you have to remember going into this episode is you have an economy that is less sensitive to short-term interest rates, a consumer that is wealthier than it has been in a generation. this is a strong backbone for the economy starting in 2024.

you have a fed that has to deal with financial turmoil. when you are thinking about the potential downside of the economy, low and looks something like the run-of-the-mill recession. there is a lot of upside from there as well. the market is pricing in a very quick deterioration and the quickness of that deterioration looks unlikely. kriti: where is that deterioration coming from? if you at the data, it doesn't have that effect. where is the pain point here? alex: i think it is going to come from business investment and confidence. the consumer still has a lot of firepower, but if businesses

decide they want to cut back on hiring and investing because they are nervous about the recession, that can become self-fulfilling. it is part of the feds tightening campaign. they want the weaker economy. going into svb, they were thinking about raising the terminal rate further. people were talking about 6% terminal rates. now they are in a wait and see mode. they will see how much bang they will get from the svb episode and will assess to see whether or not they need to be holding, raising interest rates more or cutting. jon: all considerations for sure. going back to the turmoil that dominated the headlines within banking for the last couple of weeks, one of the takeaways from that was the belief that at least for the smaller banks they are going to be a lot more restrictive when it comes to lending in the months ahead.

does that do some of what the fed may be doing anyway? alex: look, there is a wide range of estimates on how much tightening the pullback in lending at the small bank original level may be worth. i think the answer is right now, it's probably worth something. chair powell talked about an additional hike. i have seen estimates from my colleagues. the answer is that we don't know. they are not even going to see that in the data for several months, at least in the hard economic data. what that means is something that the markets have to consider and investors need to consider is that the market is likely to react very differently to weak data versus strong data. right now, weak data there will be a strong reaction and strong

data will be faded as we wait and see what the impact from svb is. kriti: have payrolls in the u.s. on friday, good friday, so the equity market will be closed. if we see a hot payrolls number, what does that do? how high do yields go? alex: 10-year is around 3.40 your 3.50 basis points. if you edit and we put out the forecast and the bond market 10-year gilts would end flat. kriti: let's see if alex pelle is right. we thank you for joining your -- the show with your time. mcdonald's on the verge of major restructuring. ubs, a similar story. the details ahead. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms (we did it)

kriti: this is bloomberg markets. ubs will cut its workforce by up to 30% after completing the takeover of credit suisse. that could impact 36,000 employees. sonali basak is following the story. is this expected or a surprise? sonali: you always look for cuts when you have that there are places with a don't have the same footprint, ubs is a larger firm with a bigger wealth management u.s. division. they have a lot of similar presences in other countries. the question becomes, how much

of the headcount comes from the ubs side as well as the credit suisse side. ubs had a plan to cut more of the investment bank as well but they want to retain bankers as wall street looks around and tries to pick off parts of the pie. jon: ahead of this deal, when everyone was reporting how ubs felt about the whole situation, it did feel like there were some concerns about what this deal would mean directionally, given the way credit suisse operated and ubs operated. when you talked about your sources about this integration versus others we have seen with big financial players, how complicated does it end up being? sonali: complicated for the same reason that the managers looking line by line looking at what needs to go and what needs to stay. the broader question for wall street, you have concentration risk you have to consider it.

you now are consolidating into one brokerage firm and one had massive issues in the last couple of years, plus what is left and how big a prime brokerage institutions and large investors in the investment bank. the other business of ipo's and leverage finance. ubs has been capital light. they both had big presence in asia. do they want to get deeper into leverage loans, a place where credit suisse had a ton of expertise and was one of the top. a lot to be gained but a lot of decision in terms of a strategy that could change for ubs. the old ceo is back so let's see a much wants to stick with original plans with the bigger bank. jon: we will watch for sure. sonali basak joining us with the latest on ubs. mcdonald's has reportedly closed offices for a few days as it plans layoffs as part of a

broader restructuring plan. the shares have been trading at an all-time high. i want to again go hailing with the bloomberg -- michael halen with the bloomberg investors. given there is decent performance from the business itself, what was your reaction to these were about the layoffs? michael: these have been well communicated. they outline them -- outlined them back in january. not a huge surprise for investors today. when the news first came across, there was that question, why now ? obviously there was pressure for the corporate owned stores and franchisees but when it comes to the top line, mcdonald's has done a phenomenal job. you have to think that in the back of their head they are expecting things to get worse.

they have been clear with the communication about that as well. they said a mild to moderate recession in the u.s. was the base case. they think it will be worse in europe because of the inflation they are seeing in the first half. i think it kind of chives. things will get worse for the economy and that is why they are looking to cut some jobs. kriti: put into perspective for us, only talk about what is most strikingly that shutting down the corporate office to execute layoffs. put it in perspective of previous rounds they have dealt with. is it bigger or smaller than what we have seen in the past? ? personally, i would like to be known, i would like to know that i was getting let go in a face-to-face meeting, personally, but this is a sign of the times. people are working from home and doing the zoom thing.

in terms of the size, we don't know they haven't told us what the number of cuts are going to be. we are hoping to hear something in the first quarter earnings. jon: on that reality of technology and how it allows people to do business these days, part of the mcdonald's business itself is increasingly ruled by the digital components of their business. i wonder if the company is going to increasingly think about how technology is continuing to change the way all of the businesses run. michael: for sure. obviously, restaurants have caught up quickly on technology over the last several years. they were forced to buy covid. they were an industry that was sort of behind in terms of technology compared to most other consumer companies that we follow. technology will continue to be

important. what i can say for the restaurant space is kind of unique. for the restaurant employees, they have to go into work. there is no working from home or telecommuting. a lot of the restaurants we cover and people we talked to felt it was important that the employees come in on a day to day basis because i don't want to see -- be seen as a different class of citizens from employees. restaurant chains in general have approached telecommuting a little bit differently than some of the other industries out there. jon: asked very much. we will continue to watch the mcdonald's story. we are going to take a break. a live report from outside the courthouse where former president trump will be arraigned in about four hours. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold, new thinking,

♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪

>> people are rushing to judgment without the facts in front of them. >> this gets that by the country at large as politicized with a week case. >> the bigger stuff is yet to come. >> this plays into the victim card he plays from the bottom of every deck. >> trump is brilliant at playing martyr. he loves the publicity and he has gotten the mother load. >> this causes more trump fatigue generally and that helps desantis. >> trump has a better chance of winning the nomination. >> the markets will have to contend that this guy could become president again. >> i think he wins the nomination and loses the general election. jon: some voices on bloomberg television reacting to former president trump's indictment.

he is on the way to new york for his arraignment. he will plead not guilty when he appears in court in manhattan according to his lawyers. we have more details. simone: right now, it is a media circus but we haven't seen an enormous amount of demonstrators yet, either for or against trump. we have seen a couple. there are a continued holding banners trump for president as well as some saying lock him up. onlookers are gathered behind me. we understand trump is in the air on his way to new york. it is a 2.5 hour flight from florida. we expect him to come to trump towers sometime later this afternoon or early evening. the big news tomorrow when he heads downtown for his arraignment at the county -- new

york supreme court house. that is when we will get the details about exactly what the cons are of this indictment. kriti: certainly something we are keeping an eye on. just those already seconds you saw both sides of the argument. simone foxman will be there all afternoon to watch and cover the story for us. it is fascinating. i was at the district attorney office earlier covering the same story and we do not have the same kind of presence he saw behind simone. jon: it is obviously to your point, a bigger question now about how the starts to influence the road to 2020 for, as we still -- 2024, as we wait for the story. kriti: new york city is bracing for the mass response or test rallies or whatever. we will have full coverage on bloomberg tv tomorrow. let's get a quick check, s&p 500 flat but the pain in the nasdaq,

down 1%. the 10 year yield, 3.43. more markets coverage i had. this is bloomberg. ♪ when i was his age, we had to be inside to watch live sports. but with xfinity, we get the fastest mobile service and can stream down the street

or around the block! hey, can you be less sister, more car? all right, let's get this over with. switch to xfinity mobile and get the best price for 2 lines of unlimited. just $30 a line per month. i should get paid more for this. you get paid when you win. from xfinity. home of the 10g network.

romaine: financial markets influx. kicking you out to the close on this monday afternoon. katie: welcome back, great to see you. it felt like a pretty busy week. it is shaping up to be another big week, although we do have off on friday. technically a short day. romaine: the second line on your screen, the 6%