>> the opec decision is like a kabbalist on top of something moving in another direction >> i would not look at higher oral prices as a reason to get tighter. >> these crises push as offkilter. >> real interest rates are going to be positive and a significant level for the next decade. >> the market is telling you that investors are starting to exhale a bit even if they are not breathing easy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene

jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everybody on radio and television from our studios in washington and new york. there are at least 14 major stories this morning. we are over with maria in brussels and finland. we have an indictment and arraignment in new york, we have the markets, we have economic data. the two year yield, that indicator falls below 4%. lisa: that is the team because we -- because what we're are looking at is a credibility gap. we are careening towards recession and pricing in lower rates ahead. tom: the news and for those catching up, the atlanta gdp indicator clearly shows what lisa is talking about which is a slowdown in first-quarter gdp from a statistic of 3.5% andy cinko. 2.7% in the know beneath 2%. lisa: this is the tension.

manufacturing data came in at some of the most rates we have seen since the peak of the pandemic. how to bps this together? is this a building recession? does it not reflect the reality because the data is noisy? data speaks volumes and right now it is not even the two-year. you have been talking about triple leverage cache at how much a 5% bogey is getting people to move their money into money market accounts. that is down to 4.5%. we have lost what 5% of extra yield. -- .5% of extra yield. tom: we are going to cover the indictment and arraignment this afternoon in lower manhattan. ritika gupta is on their watch there. we have maria tadeo in brussels, a historic day for europe. what we have is in the

wheelhouse which is economic data coming out. i think we have underplayed this on monday and the ministries of economic data beginning today and launching towards jobs day on friday. lisa: we have the jolts jobs openings at 10:00 a.m.. this is beginning to be important. how long can the market shrug of data that is coming in hotter than expected? it is still positive with respect to high -- how tight the market is. our markets getting it wrong? they have been wrong before and the fed has been right. tom: i have to get to lisa's brief. green on the screen, it was in its market, futures of 12. 41.65. -- 41 65. the dow getting near 34,000.

nasdaq 100 is up .5%. the vix in under 1918. we mentioned the 10 year yield, under 3%. the 10 year yield, 3.44%. ny crude, brent crude getting near $86 per barrel. with the washington brief, lisa abramowicz. lisa: the economic data is front and center. we get the jolts job opening. expectation is to come but a lot of near 10 million travel billings. it is hard to square this with the idea of an economy on the brink of assertion. to get factory orders and durable goods orders. we are also getting a series of investors days. walmart is holding its first in-person investor day since 2020 at 8:00.

this is almost as important as the economic data because we might get more of a sense of layoffs and what the macroeconomic situation is. and 2:15 p.m., former president trump is getting arrayed in the criminal case in manhattan with alvin bragg. new york city plans to close off a number of streets. my big question is when does this move into severe with broader implications or is this going to be a circus with all of the cameras coming into the courtroom, at least initially? today we get fed speak. tom: thank god for that. lisa: lisa cook, loretta mester, markets are not listening to them. we will be through is to see if that continues. i'm also speaking with the world bank president this morning, next week's meetings, imf. we will be down here as the world bank is setting a tone for a period that perhaps looks

different. tom: walmart has a meeting today. it is a symbol. the world bank and imf meetings today indicate moving beyond the pandemic. it is as simple as the buzz i feel about what we will see this week and next week in washington. lisa: we have been so concerned with former president trump and all sorts of other plot lines that some of the other questions about china and what has happened there, larger questions about russia and its role in the crude market, very much front and center for the imf and the world bank. tom: we are going to launch into an analysis of this market into the second quarter with all of the ups and downs, failures, successes, and the tumultuous first-quarter with steve chiavarone. what has changed in your market outlook from 1231 to 331? steve: not a ton.

we remain cautious. what has emerged is the link between rate hikes and a slowing economy. it is the banks and the banks' linked to small businesses. we expect -- and i think the fed is looking for this as well -- that is going to lead to a pullback in lending and that impact small businesses which employ 40% -- employee 46% of the u.s. labor force and it impacts consumers the rest of the year because the consumer has used credit cards to offset negative income growth. we think of that prospect, that is where you see the economy slow further. tom: in equities, where do you hide? steve: it is a nuanced view. one, defensive dividend paying stocks, especially with the fact that they have underperformed so far this year. what has changed is as we -- is

whereas coming into the year we thought cyclical debt was better than growth stocks, that safety, the strong balance sheets from logitech accompanies becomes a better place to hide. moving more towards a neutral weight in growth will be appropriate, not necessarily at these prices. i would like to see a pullback in these growth stocks we think that will be one of the next big trades. lisa: you have been cautious for a while. how difficult is it to remain cautious as stocks continue to rally? steve: i don't think what is happening is out of the ordinary. on average between the low end and on employment rate at the start of the recession, six-month. we just hit the low unemployment rate, then a half ago. over that six month period, unemployment doesn't rise much. if you look at it from the low unemployment claims, that takes

about 13 months to go from the low planet limited claims to the start of a recession. we are at 13 months today. people look back at prior cycles and when you look at them on a chart companies two inches. when you look through it, it is six to nine months sometimes. the same thing with bank failures. there were six months between bear ending in-- i think things are progressing in a relatively normal period. if you look at the cycle, it was a recession, a robust auditory response, it sparked inflation, it is proceeding along what me -- what may be the most classic cycles in our lifetime. it just takes time. lisa: bob michele came out and said this is like spring cleaning. we want to get rid of everything we don't want.

perhaps there will be another quarter of rally. perhaps you see risk assets do really well, but after that, game over and we want to make sure we don't end up with stuff we don't like. do you agree? do you look at this as a time to clean out a specific aims you are not that interested in? steve: i think that is a sound advice. in this battle between the market and the fed, if you took -- if you take a step back, when was the last time you had a fed that was hiking in an environment where you had an ims -- yet the entire yield curve under the fed's fund rate, when ldi's have been this negative and you have had banking stress? the answer is never. just like he had unprecedented waters when not hiking any 2021, they are in unprecedented waters for not using right now. when you look at that, being cautious and doing some spring

cleaning probably makes sense. tom: thank you so much. we greatly appreciate it. the recent on 2023. this is fascinating. we make jokes about john, john is out on his roadshow. i find it fascinating to go back to literally investment principles 101. we are in fifth grade, we don't know what we are talking about. it is simple, the economy seems to be worse in the last two days and stocks go up. that is a core concept that has to be addressed. lisa: there are some people who say it is like weather forecasting. there are people when they hear a hurricane is coming and yes the sun is shining, they stock up on canned goods and there are other people who look around and say it is still sunny and there is a chance it could miss us so

you might as well enjoy the weather. there is a sense that things are still good and if you look on the ground, there is a lot of strength. how do you parsley now and the predicted future that has not come to pass? tom: the international monetary fund, the dollar is weaker today off of euro stronger. a lot of research writing whether it is a stronger euro, a real mystery. lisa: i would agree. we are hearing from ecb officials. they are still wanting to hike rates by 50 basis points. tom: stay with us, there are some ministries for us on this tuesday. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ >> keeping you up to date with news from around the world.

there has never been a day like this in manhattan. former president trump is in town to surrender to want first met officers, be booked, and enter his plea not guilty. the case involves hush money payments to a point star during the 2016 campaign. new york city authority says they are prepared for disturbances. oil has extended its rally following the surprise cut by opec+. wti was up more than 6% monday. the cutback prompted many banks to hike up with their forecasts. as a inflation in the u.s. has started using but she warns that price pressures could stay in place due to a tight labor market, they were in ukraine, the -- and the reopening in china. cook said it would be important to watch in the wake of bank turmoil. a top official at switzerland's central bank says credit suisse would have gone bankrupt if it had not been sold to ubs.

martin schlagel called the burger the best among bad solutions. he says he doesn't see the financial stability in switzerland is threatened in any way. l'oreal has agreed to -- at l'oreal, it joins a cast of luxury plans -- luxury brands. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bamberg. -- this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is his dream come true. he is on the front pages of every newspaper. he gets to play martyr and he is really good at playing martyr. the circus is in town in new york and the circus is going to persist not for weeks or months but many for the next couple of years. trump could stretch this out into the election campaign of 2024. tom: greg has been such a benefit to us. his perspective of making

economics and our political economy. lisa abramowicz in washington. jonathan ferro is off today. we are looking forward to getting him back. we have underplayed the beginning of the jeweled survey, the economic data we are going to get and the hallmark data point for you making up across the america. 3.99% on a two year yield off of softer gdp analysis summed by the atlanta gdp. from a 3% to under 3%. now to dovetail many threads of today is the right person, was the virgin mary -- leslie vinj amuri from chatham house. i think we can get this away from the arraignment into the fragility that europe feels about this moment in america.

we have finland joining nato. in my life, i never thought i would say that. finland is joining nato and there is a lack of european confidence over the future of america's support of europe looking from biden to what we see in the next term which could be another president trump. leslie: there has been tremendous confidence europe has had in the u.s. on the back of the invasion for well over a year. liking and 80 background is what happens in the u.s.. europe has not taken concrete steps to deal with this. as you are sitting at 90 corridors of power, there is a real concern whether donald trump is coming back, if the trump wing of the party is coming back in europe because it is taken as a sign europe want to be as committed to -- that

the u.s. would not be as committed to nato. we know it is u.s. military support that has saved the day when it comes to the work. for europeans, it is a concern. in look back, to understand the focus of what is happening today and the significance. for europeans, it's about the capital attacks and the attempt to obstruct the election. there is a question of what comes next that matters for europe. tom: give us an example of what a second term president trump would do in europe. what does he do with poland or estonia, the newfoundland? what is something he would adjust? leslie: for your appearance, the condition for europeans, the concern is that -- for europeans, the concern is that president trump would go back to the rhetoric from his first presidency. tom: we know we may see language

and rhetoric today, fine. but what would be the action of a second term donald trump? leslie: nobody knows but the real concern is that you don't get that military aid that the u.s. really does focus much of his attention on china, puts pressure on europeans to support its policy, that comes at a price. for europe, this war is existential. that war is right there regardless of what happens in the months ahead. there is going to be instability, the perceived need for bob the u.s. -- for the u.s. to be right there. they are looking at a republican party sang offered of things about what they would or wouldn't do, if the war is worth america's interests. the concern is that donald trump

would scale back that support and pour the u.s. out of nato. it is very difficult to imagine, but it is certainly the concern and there is no reason to not have that concern given the mixed messages coming out of the republican party. lisa: have there been policy consequence as of this, the idea that the world is moving away from u.s. leadership amenity crises? whether we are talking about russia's invasion of ukraine or other potential risks looming out there. tom: i think we have a frozen microphone there. we will try to get the technological workout in a moment -- the technological worked out in a moment. let's bring it back to what we are going to envision today. you have been a student of domestic politics and this is

original. leslie: this is original. we have never seen an american president indicted in this way. nobody knows what is in that indictment. how will the public react? it seems like many americans feel there is an ailment of politics. we know this is a very polarized context. europeans are looking back, they are struck time and again at the divisions. in many ways the interesting question is how does this play in the court of public opinion? how does this react? is there violence on the streets? does it fade into the background because people are growing tired of this kind of politics in the u.s.? tom: the politics is there and the rhetoric is there. what i find fascinating is both sides establishing a middle. joe biden seems to be working against a liberal democratic

party. it is literally choreographed out of the white house. and then you have got the basic public in response which is the 46th governor of arkansas with a 1% polling rating has decided to jump into the presidential race. where is the center? leslie: it is hard to find the center. when you see the democratic party pulling apart. if you look at this from the perspective of the rest of the world, america's foreign policy looks bipartisan on the big issues and that is not necessarily a good thing. there is a concern that division between the u.s. and china will put the world in a place where they will have to choose or force economic choices. bipartisanship, we might apply it at home, it is not always look like a good thing from the point of view of the rest of the world. tom: i have any audible question

, what did you think of the king of england walking across -- the other day. leslie: an extra ordinary moment. this is a symbolic politics -- this is a symbolic politics. we are seeing a west that looks so strong in so many ways. as you look forward to the months ahead, there is a concern of what comes next. one has to be cautiously optimistic about the optics about the west, but also where the fishers -- fissures are likely to develop. tom: leslie vinjamuri with us from chatham house. i cannot requite day when there are some of the economic, and international relationss -- international relations threads.

lisa: it is a soup. here is the question i have, how much can be focus on economic data that continues to be strong and look past it? when it comes to geopolitics, it is a slower moving train but it is just as important. i wonder what this does generally to the balance of power globally. tom: balance of power for us is always an economic data. relay moving on to the job stay on friday. futures up to 12. the vix is under 19. the two year yield under 4%. brent crude rounded up, $86 a barrel. from washington and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most.

drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

tom: global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- tom: "bloomberg surveillance," good morning everybody. beginning our coverage of world bank and imf meetings. do you need any additional thread? -- an additional thread? is not the mets losing 10-0, but jamie dimon is going to be out with his annual letter. this deserves extra nation. -- extra explanation.

last year it was 56 pages. lisa: we are getting reporting on what is in that letter, it is his response to the silicon valley collapse. he is saying fed, you are asleep at the wheel, it was hiding in plain sight. this is about one issue and your failure to oversee it and he is overheated -- and he is pretty heated in his language. tom: the only equivalent is robert wilmer's mmt bank in buffalo. we will keep you abreast of this as we go through the morning. with all of the threats we have today, with economic data and the jobs report on friday, the futures are up 15. nasdaq 100 is up .5%. i thought there was resilience in the equity market yesterday. in the equity market, we have 3.99 in the two-year. the real yield continues to compress down. 1.14%.

i cannot say what a real yield under 1% would signal. dollar weakness with stronger euro, dxy, a 101 handle on dxy. weaker dollar this morning. lisa: that 109 27 -- 1.0 97 is fascinating. deutsche bank came out saying this is the highest level we have seen since april 2022. he said updated euro cost -- updated labor cost for the eurozone is at a higher rate in the u.s. then europe for the first time in a decade. this policy diversion you are seeing, people say it has staying power. tom: there is no question about that. futures up 13. lisa: looking ahead, we will get payrolls on friday. we also gets -- we also get told stata with job openings. becca calling for a strong rise

in payrolls and a lower unemployment rate writing "the risk of recession is higher from sin distresses, we are not forecasting any economic contraction despite aggressive monetary policy tightening. a real divergence between economists and the market." rubeela farooqi is joining us now. when dcs -- rubeela: the markets not believing what he said is saying and that the conductive effects of monetary policy are going to start during in the data. i think the disconnect is already looking for a slowdown or a recession? given where the labor market is, given what we are seeing in terms of resilience under the household sector, we are not seeing that.

we expect a slowdown. we are not expecting an outright contraction. we also have to remember we have been expecting this slowdown from the second half of 2022 and that has not materialized. this economy has a lot of positive momentum. despite aggressive fed tightening, we have seen a sector that has remained residents because the labor market has been strong. there is no indication that is going to change. if you look at the data in terms of jobless claims numbers and with each of stata is telling us, there is no indication we are about is a collapse in the labor market, the household sector, or the economy. lisa: how does the ism manufacturing data fit into this given it was lowest of back at the height of the pandemic and

typically that proceeds recession? rubeela: if you look at the levels where the manufacturing ism is, it is above levels consistent with inflation. it is in the low 40's when you see a manufacturing recession. you have to consider the fact that we are seeing a response from the super interest affected areas of the economy. we are seeing the effect on manufacturing. we are less than five points below the initial level in the manufacturing ism. we think manufacturing is going to remain under pressure. we do think there could be some support if you look at the infrastructure program or if you look at an on shoring of supply chains. on the others of it, you have high borrowing costs and now you have a possible credit crunch. at least credit conditions that are going to affect decisions around those investment projects

or those hiring decisions. i don't see it broad-based, i think it is limited. i don't think it is a signal for the broader economy but it is something we are watching regularly. lisa: so you think he market is wrong? -- think the market is wrong? rubeela: the market is in conflict with what the data is showing. that has happened before into the markets have adjusted. there is so much uncertainty about the economic outlook. we have been expecting a slowdown. we don't think it is going to be an outright contraction. there are elevated uncertainties. the fed has delivered a lot and we are waiting to see what happens in terms of credit. we are looking at the loan activity data. we are also waiting to see what happens in the little office survey when the next one comes out. that is where the uncertainty lies. we are not sure how much any impact that this would you have on small businesses. that is where a lot of the job openings are.

businesses are going to stop hiring or are they going to start firing? that really has significant applications for households and spending. tom: i want to channel carl weinberg coming to a colleague who is deeply experienced on the fragility of emerging market economies. the black-market peso in argentina to 4.07. i have turkish lira walking away. it is into syncretic. fold in carl's view of e.m. into your view of the u.s. economy and of jerome powell as central banker to the world. rubeela: this is where the challenge lies. the fed's mandate is focused on the u.s. economy. this is their job. number one, inflation and employment. it makes -- it has a big impact

globally. the fed is in tight spots, they're going to do what is good for the u.s. economy. what is good for the u.s. economy right now is that they move more and stay there for a while. geopolitical events, global economic events, if there is a lot of disruption that will play into the decisions. the focus really is on u.s. inflation and the u.s. labor market. tom: there is that partitioned into the main third meeting. do you have clarity orders high-frequency economics have such an uncertain view where you are as data-dependent as the fed officers? rubeela: we are as data dependent as the fed is. we think they have the room to go another 25 basis points but what we read in the statement was very cautious.

they are thinking about a tighter conditions substituting for rate hikes. we know the fed is close to the end of the rate hike cycle. this is something they communicated before. this is something the banking sector turmoil has accelerated that and they might actually miss -- actually pause at the may meeting. we think they move 25 basis points. the question is what happens afterwards and i think they're going to keep rates higher for longer and that is where the conflict is. tom: what does the market do when they figure out there is no rate cuts? rubeela: we have seen this story before. markets will eventually recapitulate unless we are talking about a situation where recession is more of a guarantee. we just don't see it right now. based on our outlook and currently, we don't think the

market pricing in terms of rate cuts -- that just has to be repriced. tom: rubeela farooqi, thank you so much. it is april. does strengthen verily do taxes or does he do them in the u.k.? lisa: he does taxes. i'm not going to talk about his personal life but he has been living in new york for some time. tom: i did not know that. in april, we look at any annual report, why we are proud of j.p. morgan chase. jamie dimon releases a report. i skimmed through the first four or five pages. are a few pages after that. it is an interesting shareholder letter. i begin with one statistic, he says the government is his partner as he alludes to his friend warren buffett.

he notes they have paid $43 billion in u.s. taxes. a bit defensive. lisa: how much is this a rebuttal to the proposal to assess this levy on the biggest banks to pay for the fdic's expenses in terms of silicon valley bank? how much does this say we have been safer than be have ever been before, there are no issues here? this is your failure and event you are going to come after us after the taxes we have paid. how much of that defensiveness you feel? tom: isn't a pr exercise? of course -- is it a pr exercise? of course. i would like to thank all of our guests, including david kelly with us yesterday involved in its form. but you get the messaging out front, looking at service, heart, curiosity, courage, excellence. those are the themes we will see

in the annual reports this year. lisa: the other theme i am curious to see elaborated on and everyone is touching his is china and how some of the bigger banks address the divide and the growing tensions between the u.s. and china. at what point do the rising tensions impede on their business? do they start raising questions about how much they want to double down? tom: we will continue to dive into this letter. we don't see it ahead of time. it is not embargoed. we will dive into it with an important note on american wall street. futures advance, lisa abramowicz driving the s&p higher to plus 18. on bonds, greg peters, next. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, and lisa mateo. the new york city police

department, secret service, and other authorities are on high alert as tomo shrum is said to be arraigned in lower manhattan. the former president's indictment has sparked a political firestorm as he makes a comeback bid for the white house. trump's lawyers say he will plead not guilty. it involves hush money payments made to a point start during the 2016 campaign. russia testing over the united -- the rotating presidency of the united nations screen cancel. the u.s. ambassador to the human because they matter an info. and said russia will use a chance to spread disinformation. in california, relentless storms have left behind one of the biggest snowpacks on record. officials say its water content measures 230% of normal. that is good news for california which has been suffering through a drought but there is a concern warmer weather could lead to flooding.

warner bros. discovery is closer to a deal for an online tv series based on the "harry potter" books. it would be based on one of j.k. rowling's bestsellers. warner bros. turned each of the books into a hit movie. the university of connecticut has won its fifth ncaa men's basketball title. they beat san diego state in monday night's final. -- was named the tournament's most outstanding player. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa mateo and this is bloomberg. ♪ but you're right on track to reach your goals. my ameriprise advisor helps me feel confident about my financial future. he knows me and my goals. it's not the first uncertain environment he's helped me navigate.

probably won't be the last. but with his advice, i know i'm on track. the plan we created can withstand uncertainty. no wonder clients rate us 4.9 out of 5 in overall satisfaction. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a check out angi.com today. angi... and done.

was also the first time your profits left you speechless. at the counter or on the go, save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. start saving today at godaddy.com >> if things are better, if we have seen an environment where the banking crisis issue is

stabilizing and we see a fed stepping back a little bit then we will see a situation of inflation tolerance. tom: jessica, always good on trend following. what a year they had and a challenging first quarter she mentioned to us yesterday. futures of 16, dow futures up 77. the dow yesterday, jonathan ferro is right, the dow can do flaky things because of the way it was structured. it was up big yesterday. lisa: who are you? tom: it was another day because of how it was weighted, it was goofy to say the least. 4% on the two year yield. the dollar with some new weakness. mexican peso back to 18. brent crude rounded up $86 per barrel, it has my attention. lisa: i would agree with that.

the fact that he was seeing short-sellers stocked out of their positions and volatility going down in the oil patch, definitely catching people's notice. over in a credit suisse, the chair addressing the 15,000 large ice hockey rink in zurich. they are holding their first shareholder meeting in person in zurich since the pandemic, days after the takeover by ubs. the chair is opening the meeting saying he was truly sorry for failing to stem the crisis, adding "we failed to lessen the impact of legacy scandals." the bank cannot be saved. marcus ashworth in our london office joining us now. but if you make of a statement that was basically saying we have got nothing? marcus: the only thing we were missing was the horizontal bow

you might get from a japanese bank leader. this is a bit cya. they are covering themselves. everyone seems to be making out that this was terrible and they had no other option innovatively think they could to save the world. i am slightly cynical but it is what it is. i don't think they would about handling bondholders right. i think they have been called out from that. they did what has to be done and now comes the calling of credit suisse. a lot of this could have been done 10 or 12 years ago and that is exactly what ubs -- liquidated then and do it again. lisa: did you make of the swiss national bank statement saying credit suisse could not have lasted another day without filing for group c and this combined entity will not be a government-back to bank? marcus: convenient is the first word that comes to mind.

they are all off of the same song sheet and we can expect that. a very rigorous program -- rigorous probe of everything will find every nook and cranny. tom: i had the great privilege yesterday of talking to a senior credit suisse manager in the u.s. he was shellshocked, extremity tentative about not only the days ahead about the hours ahead. let us be clear, is credit suisse an entity at this time? i. the end report meeting was bordering on a hollywood comedy in its survey on this. -- on its surrealness. are they an entity? marcus: i think they are and i think it would be a mistake for ubs to completely wipe them off the map. i used to work at a swiss bank

sbc which became a name. that was perhaps a mistake. credit suisse does mean something for certain people on the private wealth side. ubs is as good if not a better name. as an entity, credit suisse was more dynamic and i think ubs would make a mistake if they completely wipe out everything. a lot has to go. the culture was clearly wrong. this is a long-term, highly successful bank. 167 years or whatever. to have just one biggie ubs does not reflect everything it should be. tom: unfair question, where is this entity, monday? six days from now, what should we expect to see? marcus: they're going to have to take a big axe to the credit suisse side.

we have -- issuing a nonpreferred that. i think what we are going to see is that the banking system and debt issuance, getting back to a bit more numb analogy which will enable credit suisse and ubs to do things a little bit more calm and quiet. i expect we will start to see some sensible business decisions come out of the merger. did i say merger? lisa: despite the big name that is credit suisse and a legendary status in global markets, other than that, is the european market with some respect stronger than the u.s.'s and feeling more optimistic on positive data, in particular having to do with wages? marcus: i think the european market is different. i want to say they didn't clear out the balance sheets like the u.s. did.

i think the u.s. model where it has fallen down as they have this two-tier regulation which is fully going to have to change. smaller banks have seemed to go under the radar screen. there is a much bigger problem on the european banking, it is a bigger area, it has 20 plus different countries. the ecb has not the best it can but it is hiding -- it is fighting a huge battle to get everything making sense. they have the billing elements -- bailing elements which have worked in next ways. i don't think we can say the european banking system is completely safe and sound. it has more powers and has used them aggressively. tom: go on and regular annual report letter so we can go into that in a couple of weeks. market ashworth in london, thank you so much. lisa diamond -- a renaissance of

a world on the path toward peace and democracy. i am taken with the theme this year, and this is where the war in ukraine, the back third of the letter including a complete op-ed from the wall street journal jamie dimon wrote a while back is remarkably on a greater global view. on the worst democracy -- on the worded democracy, some of the foundations we will hear at 8:00 this morning, it is a primal scream for a reaffirmation of a 21st-century american government. lisa: how do you have a 21st century business that operates globally with a feeling of fragmentation that is accelerating? with the idea of polarities established between u.s. and europe and china and russia and some of the other nations? these are some of the questions

banks are getting with as they tried to operate on a global scale. it is not going to be easy. tom: the 12 month return of jp morgan as a sprightly 13.4% per year. he does mention the financials up top, concern of the bloomberg surveillance audience. there is a different tone here in the time of war. lisa: i want to pick up on some of the banking related points. to me, this screams you guys should not overreact and penalize us for your failure with silicon valley bank. that is how i take this in terms of jamie dimon's message to politicians. the current crisis is not yet over and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions. recent events are nothing like what occurred during 2008. he said it is important we avoid knee-jerk responses to this.

how much are we looking at a jamie dimon who is defendant -- who is defined saying don't levy anything and don't over regulate us on the heels of what you missed? tom: it a direct statement days after this banking crisis. some would say we are still amid this banking crisis. he singles out svb and some of the other smaller banks. he says we are stronger. we will continue to dive into the statement. i don't think we have mentioned this enough, the stock market refuses to go down. that is all there is to it. lisa: they are looking at positive data and earnings that are okay. at what point will they wake up to what the bond market is looking at? tom: barbara reinhardt was wonderful last time she was on, really looking forward to that.

the two year yield, 3.29%. stay with us from washington and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ♪♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities

and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

>> the opec decision is like a catalyst on top of something moving in another direction. >> i would not look at higher oil prices as a reason to get tighter. >> this pushes us offkilte it makes it difficult to get back to where we need to be. >> i think the market is telling us investors are starting to

exhale. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning. an amazing historic tuesday. there are 70 different stories this morning. lisa abramowicz is in washington. jon is out today. you were down there with david malpass. we begin with world bank imf. there's an international component to the idea of american slowdown in american lower interest rates. lisa: they are asking the question, what does the world look like when you withdraw 08 policies? -- zero rate policies? what about the developing nations that have got money off the backs of this? they have to deal with a very different backdrop. i think that is what david malpass is focused on. tom: the data check right here this morning. we have a wonderful guest for

those of you that missed this out of october market. the guest is critical. i'm sorry. i can say oil advances to $86. lisa: i was looking at rbc's michael tran's note. they have changed their view twice in two weeks. to give you a sense of how quickly the facts are changing. more than one million barrel a day cut by opec coming on the heels of perhaps weakness in the market. what i find interesting today is this is a new dynamic. people saying they want prices higher. they will get them. it is not just because the economy is slowing so much. also interesting, did you see joe biden's response? he said this time is different than before. it has a different nature. it is in response to demand, which suggests they will not do a tit-for-tat.

tom: we played the headline in the last hour on radio, the atlanta gdp number moving from 3.7% to 2%. that was a germane headline from yesterday. lisa: this feeds into what you are seeing in the bond market. you talked about the two-year yield and you are right to do so. we are pricing in rate cuts through the end of this year. looking at potential for possibly lower long-term yields at a time with the economy has not turned yet. i think equities are looking good and bonds are looking at the bad. tom: let me do the data check. lisa has an important one. the number of threads. the way we diffused out the bloomberg surveillance team. kriti gupta, maria tadeo, lisa and washington. jon is doing something for us today. i'm not sure what it is.

the threat is optimism in the equity markets. vix under 19. 3.99 handle on the two-year. weaker dollar. brief us if you can. lisa: we are counting down there friday's jobs reports. jobs opening data. the expectation is more than 10 million job openings, nearly two openings for each on a plate american. try to square that for calls with recession. in the economic bucket, walmart is holding its first in-person shareholder meeting today. this is the first since 2020. i'm interested with respect to economic prognostication given they are very much on the ground and exposed to the inflation sensitive sectors of the economy. 2:15, former president trump is getting arraigned in manhattan. alvin bragg will unveil the

indictment against him. we will hear messaging from that. i'm interested in that more from the perspective of what this means for international relations, with respect to the dynamics of the 2024 race. boston fed president -- cleveland fed president. i know you are tracking every word they say. i will be speaking with david malpass of the world bank. ahead of the world bank and imf meetings i'm curious what they have to say about u.s. and china. this is the underplayed story given some of the u.s. companies that have pretty big businesses in china. tom: is there an auction today? lisa: not that will really rise to the occasion. there are plenty of events we will be watching, including the credit suisse shareholder meeting that's ongoing in zurich. there are a host of things we are not looking for peripheral data points. tom: i will cut to the chase. this is the interview of the day

if you missed the bull market. he was pounding the table saying technically october was the bottom and so if you participated. moments ago, it was codified. 20 stocks have rallied. 460 stocks spx have never to spaded. she has been a resilient bowl. lean forward and listen to barbara reinhard. are you still bullish after the move off october? barbara: we are. we believe the banking crisis really gave the central banks an opportunity to reassess. they have muscle memory on what a systemic crisis looks like. the fed raised rates in his last meeting. we think this gives it an opportunity to slow down some of the hawkishness. we are only talking about 50 basis point hike to month ago. bailey did 25. you are's -- they only did 25.

you are seeing really fun inflation. tom: jamie dimon, i will read the whole thing tonight over a beverage of my choice. he says maybe with svb we have some form of -- these are my words -- paradigm shift. how do you shift your equity investment given the shock we had systemically? barbara: the big rally off the bottom was to spaded on strongly by the international equity markets. developed international, europe, emerging markets were some of the big gainers off the bottom of the october low. what we saw in march is an important shift. the u.s. are performed the rest of the world, and pretty strongly. we think the 700 basis points of the international markets outperformance of the u.s. over the past year is largely behind us and the whistle be the leader going forward. lisa: what data are you looking at that suggest the u.s. is

doing so much better than other nations? george sarah vallas said european wages are outpacing those in the u.s. for the first time in more than a decade. barbara: it gives the opportunity, the slowing inflation scenario in the u.s. gives the central bank the opportunity to slow their rate hikes, even possibly pause at their next meeting. that means the u.s. is likely to be one of those first into fight inflation and the first ones also to start pausing and potentially cutting sometime in the next year. that first rate pause, when the fed pauses, there's usually a big countertrend rally in equities. you have that and a coincidence with high cash levels of mutual funds and somewhat depressed sentiment. gives an important push forward for equities likely on to new highs. lisa: i love how you troll the bears successfully. you have been right.

what has been the biggest pain trait since october? being short stocks and long cash. what is going to be the leadership here? is it going to be tech on the heels of the pause or broad-based? this is something more holistic and longer lasting? barbara: there are parts of the market more affected by svb than others. they will be tightening of credit conditions. that affects u.s. small caps and they have been so beaten down you are likely to see a broadening of the equity market. that will broaden from leadership and take some of the other parts of the market, likely the lower cap size with it. it's difficult to met a sustainable rally in the early cyclical at this point but we think it is likely to have a very much bigger, broader base in terms of cap size. tom: i went to address this jamie dimon letter. i assume you did not get an advanced copy. barbara: i did not.

tom: there are banking numbers. down at the bottom was the next secretary of treasury talking about policy and diplomacy. in the middle he says there are storm clouds ahead because of the shock we had from svb, deposit flows and things we don't know right now. how do you stay a bull on a friday afternoon if you suggest there are storm clouds ahead? barbara: there are always storm clouds ahead. you had expansion for quite some time if you count the covid reset and the covid recession we had was not necessarily a classic business cycle contraction. yes, we are further along in the cycle but there's always storm clouds ahead. when you have a 500 basis point tightening in rates like you had from the fed in the last year things start to break. we have things breaking for over a year. if you do not believe the

recession is upon us in the next six months and you do not think there is, equity markets tend to do very well in the year of two or recession. tom: the raging theme of the weekend is the power of nominal gdp. dozen inflation-induced nominal gdp make a surprise and revenue growth for american corporations? barbara: it makes everyone feel better to have faster growth. the margin compression story is a real story but we do believe there is enough that the fed will be able to pause, that they have done enough to get inflation under control, and you start to see it. you had a better core pce number just released. tom: in south korea today we saw a nice inflation number as well. barbara: it could be awash in slowing inflation, at least in the second quarter of this year. tom: through all of 2023 we will put them on the desk together to

have a dueling debate on our economic policy moving forward. barbara reinhard is with voyage investment -- voya investment management. a 20-stock bull market says it all. lisa: which perhaps is a bit of ammunition for why it can be correct, right? the market is already stacked her negativity. what gives people confidence? what compass are they looking at? you can justify any narrative you want choosing the correct data, tom. tom: it's an extraordinary tuesday. news and brussels of finland in nato, a former president arraigned later this afternoon in new york, and the markets. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa m.: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, there's never been a day like this in manhattan. former president trump is in

town to surrender to law enforcement officers, be booked, here the charges against him and enter his plea of not guilty. the case involves hush money payments to a point star during the 2016 campaign. authorities say they are prepared for any disturbances. oil has extended its rally following the surprise production cut by opec-plus. west texas intermediate was up after rising by more than 6% on monday. the cartels cut back prompted thanks to jack up the price forecasts. lisa cook says inflation in the u.s. has started easing, but she wants price pressures could stay in place due to a tight labor market, the war in ukraine and the reopening of china. it will be important to watch how much more credit tightens in the wake of the bank turmoil. finland is formally becoming the 31st member of nato. the ceremony brussels completes a tumult was process that was sparked by russia's invasion of ukraine. finland's addition will bring

the alliance more than 800 miles from the border with russia. virgin orbit has filed for bankruptcy. the satellite launched firm tied to billionaire richard branson could not secure the funding needed to keep operating. virgin orbit had a high-profile launch failure in january and then it stock collapsed. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am lisa mateo and this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ over 5 million people have

fallen in love with a portable blender. blendjet 2 gives you ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go. so you can throw in your favorite ingredients and blend up a delicious smoothie anytime, anywhere. blendjet 2 even cleans itself. just add water, a drop of soap, recharge quickly with any usb port. ready to fall in love? order yours now on blendjet.com

>> while there may be some rabble-rousers thinking about coming to our city tomorrow, our message is clear and simple. control yourselves. the city is our home, not a playground for your misplaced anger. while you're in town be on your best behavior. tom: 110th mayor of new york city and 22 years of public service in the new york city please department and other agencies. speaking with some authority there. mayor adams of new york, gripped

by all sorts of geography tension, including the landing of an airplane and the driving of a car in the here and there and everywhere in manhattan. lisa abramowicz is an washington. jon farrow is off today. a constructive lift to the market. a moment for manhattan and for mr. trump. and record turn -- annmarie hordern, the one-way bet is a former president, quiet, subdued, going to the process or something more in bunches? do you have a bet on that or knowledge? annmarie: i think we know based on yesterday. this is what many are calling a circus. it's almost reminiscent of o.j. simpson as the news cameras. tom: i agree, but will he

participate in the circus? annmarie: he already is if you look at his statements on true social going up to manhattan district attorney alvin bragg and also lambasting this individual's wife. he is going to make sure he is vocal about this indictment and today's arraignment on center street in downtown manhattan. after this he's getting on an airplane, trump force one, he's going to mar-a-lago and giving a primetime address at 8:15 p.m.. tom: will that be carried by the broader american media? annmarie: i believe so. i was outside trump tower yesterday to talk to individuals. on the west side of fifth avenue -- tom: she wandered into product. -- prada. annmarie: that's at the bottom of trump tower. i have better new york city

geography than you do. on the west side of fifth avenue it is just nonstop reporters, lenses, camera crews. on the right were some supporters but reporters far outweighed those supporters. tom: you know the geography and the jewels of brooklyn law school. he is lawyering up. the guy went to night school at brooklyn law school and has serious prosecutor cred. annmarie: todd blanche. he went to brooklyn vaughn but this individual is known for dealing with a lot of high-profile white criminal law. he represented trump's former campaign manager paul manafort. you can see he is staying within the trump world. as you called it on monday when i was here, yesterday -- tom: it's a blur. annmarie: he will be lawyering up. one lawyer has been aggressive

outfront in the media and he has said to a number of journalists across the media landscape that when they arrive at the arraignment they will plead loudly and proudly not guilty. tom: maybe an unfair question but i will take the risk. the judge is still already limiting the media before the arraignment. i'm not speaking out of turn here. the legal people seem to be wanting to constrain the circus. will they be successful? annmarie: they already are. the still photographers, a handful will be allowed in the courtroom but there will not be cameras so you can watch this live. there will not be laptops or mobile phones. they are trying -- a number of other court cases going on will actually have to go silent for the day. this will be -- they are trying to subdue it in the courthouse. outside will be different. we already know they will be protests. tom: annmarie will buy a

codec point-and-shoot so she's one of the people that will be there. lisa: there's a question of whether former president trump's defending attorneys will say this could or should be dismissed because of the injustice of trying it altogether. the appearance of undermining justice. basically questioning publicly the motivations of this case. what do we know about whether they are planning to go with this particular provision? annmarie: this indictment is still under seal. we are going to be able to see all these charges today that they are alleging against the former president. we do know one potential avenue his legal team wants to take is they want to ask this case be tried in staten island instead of manhattan. that is because if you look at the former president's support, he won staten island.

manhattan leans very liberal and democratic. it does, tom. they think this is a better chance of success. that is likely not going to happen. while you see the lawyers inside the courtroom, they are going to vehemently defend the former president. i think what we will see from the trump political world is more of making sure they are outfront and trying to rally not just the base but the entire republican party, calling this a "witch hunt." lisa: that is where i wanted to go. what is the republican response? how united is it backing the former president? annmarie: as rick davis said to me it's easy for a republican to go after a democratic manhattan district attorney. you are seeing the republican party come out and say they think these charges are politically motivated. they say as a prosecutor there's a ton of issues they can decide, legal cases they can decide

to go down that road. in new york there is a lot of difficulties when it comes to which cases they decide to pick up. they are calling this political. you have some republicans like the former governor of arkansas, governor hutchinson, saying this is going to be a distraction for the republican party. he said he's going to be announcing and wants to try to have a different leader going into 2024. it will be very difficult for anyone to break through. what you see across the media spectrum is trump wall-to-wall. tom: you read my mind. i'm looking at the studio. behind camera 42 there is a wall of media of american frankly some great feeds worldwide as well. it is trump. what i don't see is the heart of the day's matters, which is 20 plus counts. do we have a guesstimate or any

understanding of what the actual legal document will be in this arraignment? annmarie: but we have from yahoo! news last night is that it is 30 plus counts of felonies. no, we don't. these are unsealed documents. tom: it's a mystery. annmarie: yes, by design. but we know is that this largely has to do with hush money the former president allegedly paid to an adult film star ahead of the campaign election cycle. we also know that michael cohen went to jail for it. this is the ether's of what we could -- ethos of what we could see but we have more questions than answers. tom: annmarie, thank you so much for 24/7 coverage on this. kriti gupta is down there as well. i don't even know where to go with all of this.

the threads of this tuesday are extraordinary. i am dying to get back to economic data, the certainty of the jolt survey. that provides me comfort. michael mckee provides me comfort on that. lisa: the fact we are focusing on the economic data tells you perhaps people are moving beyond the banking crisis and looking at how the economy is doing. it is a mystery. people can basically choose your own adventure depending on the data. i think it will be really important. tom: the two-year yield is the barometer. from a 3.90% to 4.2%. futures up 11. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ or excuses to unplug. you can't buy possibilities, and you can't buy moments that matter. but you can invest in them.

at t. rowe price we believe your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

i screwed up. mhm. t. rowe price, i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success that and the paycheck. is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release,

i've gone from a size 12 to a 4. before golo, i was hungry all the time and constantly thinking about food. after taking release, that stopped. with release, i didn't feel that hunger that comes with dieting. which made the golo plan really easy to stick to. since starting golo and release, i have dropped seven pant sizes and i've kept it off. golo is real, our customers are real, and our success stories are real. why not give it a try?

tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning to you from washington and new york. thank you to annmarie hordern for her brief what's going on with the arraignment of a former president. we will have complete coverage through the day and into the afternoon. tonight the former president will speak from mar-a-lago. we have in brussels this historic moment for finland and nato. we have economic data as well for the markets. futures up 12. dow futures up 37.

this morning -- marcus after work -- ashworth was great from london. there is a credit suisse blue. it is business as usual. i can say following credit suisse and their wonderful intellectual ability over the years, absolutely surreal and even more so because they move on to ubs tomorrow. that is where you start this morning. lisa: it is the last shareholder meeting any 167-year history of credit suisse this morning. shares of ubs on the heels of that integration of more than 10%. almost 11% if you look at the adr's. so far this year they have been outperforming pretty steadily. they are up again almost 1.5%.

even as we hear of all the potential frailties at credit suisse leading up to this forced acquisition, it's interesting that as the dust settles people view this as a huge win for ubs even amid the question marks around credit suisse. i'm watching exxon mobil. continuing gains from yesterday. i think the move in oil is fascinating. we have seen this consistently. yesterday this was a big pop. a 6% gain. you are seeing wti crude at some of the highest level since the beginning of the year. how much further does this have to go and how much this this fly in the face of the theory we are entering a global recession? trying to put this together can be mind spending. i'm looking at amc. the meme stocks were up about 25% year-to-date. now they are down more than 27% in premarket trading. they sold some preferred shares.

there was a lawsuit that basically will have a merging of the two classes of shares, basically share dilution. some of the meme stocks are still meming when there's a lot of volatility. tom: you are better at this. you have the offspring on the couch daytrading through robinhood. is the mean -- meme thing still meming? lisa: there was some theory people at that where getting the kick off from the mutual fund money and the fact they're putting their money into money market funds that are getting 5% interest and using that to play. there was a theory about that that's fading but there is this feeling around some of these areas, especially over the last few months that people are wondering is this the last gasp of something a little bit more frivolous? tom: a lot of opinions. barbara reinhard, i confirmed bull -- a confirmed bull.

we are checking in with greg peters. he has a mental with all sorts of investment managers of the year in fixed income. thank you for joining us. as you rewrite the 1230 when outlook, you do this on march 31, what do you adjust to look forward with the fixed income portfolio? greg: i think what you adjust is probability of a recession. we were reasonably optimistic the fed could achieve a soft landing. that is still a possibility but i think the probability of a recession is much higher today given what is occurring in the banking space. i think the theme that continues into this year is one of uncertainty. you have a set of scenarios and

it makes it very difficult space to navigate. i think as a consequence you will see volatility quite high. it also brings opportunities at the same time. the macro picture is cloudy but we see a lot of opportunities within the space. tom: i guess it is pgm in general but what is the new duration forward? what point on the maturity curve is a comfortable place to be given endless algebraic epsilon given the reality of uncertainty? greg: it is contingent on your outlook but i do believe that rates are too high and the medium and long-term will be remedied over time. effectively, if you're worried about recession, adding duration, having risk out of the curve is a very good place to be.

the question you have to ask yourself as an investor is do you think the ten-year yield will be 3.5% fighters forward -- five years forward? i think it will be lower. whether the volatility will add duration. lisa: if you think rates are going to be longer or higher -- if they going to be lower for a longer period, what is the fed getting wrong? how do you push back against the fed saying we will keep rates elevated and we see inflation is a serious concern? greg: in order to get rates lower over time the central banks have to be viewed as inflation fighters. if they lose credibility then rates will just naturally rise. one against the other, it's

critical for the fed and other central banks to be viewed as vigilant around inflation. credibility is based on that. if central banks lose credibility, they lose the ability to actually manage the yield curve. it's important to get it right in the near term. err on the side of reducing and eliminating inflation. that is job number one. lisa: do you think that rates are too high on the longer indoor shorter end? do you think this market has been overly aggressive pricing out rate hikes and saying to the fed, you are done and you will cut rates by almost 100 basis points in the next 12 months? greg: i think the markets are way too optimistic on the notion of rate cuts. to me, i don't see that playing out precisely because inflation remains quite high. i don't see the scope for

central banks, the fed here, cutting rates in a manner the markets are suggesting. that seems off to me quite frankly. we are leaning against that notion. we don't necessarily see the rate cuts being priced into the market coming to fruition. that is one area we think it is completely off. lisa: based on what you're saying, which is the short end rates could be much higher and long-term rates could fall much lower, we are talking about a really substantial inverted yield curve. perhaps even more than 100 basis points we saw earlier this year. is that correct, greg? greg: i think that is the path forward. unless you really get this harsh recession with inflation coming down pretty rapidly, i expect the yield curve to remain inverted and continue to get even more inverted. i still have this triple digit target between two's and ten's.

i think that is where we land and what we are forecasting. tom: i have four questions with no time. where is the ten-year yield the year from now off the triple digit inverted curve? greg: there's a good chance the ten-year kind of moves around plus or -20 basis points. i don't see given the data -- we are so data dependent. i don't see a radical shift in the near-term 12 months on the ten-year part of the curve unless you get a real change in the economy, including inflation. those are the big caveats. tom: greg peters, thank you so much with pgm fixed income. my head is spinning on the bond market. i look at the bloomberg total return index with all of its heritage at barclays and lehman.

it's a very elegant chart. i find very few people looking at the trend of price up, you'll down. there seems to be an immense disbelief that could happen. lisa: except it seems like perhaps equities are getting the message. there is a tension right now. how much do lower bond yields support equity markets that previously used that as a boost? lower bond yields, on the heels of softer growth and potentially ever session. that's a real tension right now's people look to the gains we have seen. two back-to-back quarters and seven years -- of the best gains in seven years. tom: i'm looking at the bankrate 30-your mortgage. you can do that in our wonderful search engine. am i supposed to celebrate be gone from a 7% to 6.75%? i don't think that's enough to

get it done. lisa: people who bought homebuilder shares perhaps he something quite different. you are seeing signs the housing market has hit a bottom and is starting to recuperate. some people say it is not just that mortgage rates are going down. it is that they have stopped going up. there is a feeling of what we are working with. that is something people are pointing to. can i point out something about this jamie dimon letter. what's interesting that jamie dimon not only blend regulators are missing the issues in plain sight with respect to silicon valley bank, but they blamed regulations that forced banks to hold huge portfolios of treasuries on their balance sheets as a ballast, a safety point, and then had policies that caused yields to go up and the price to go and create a huge liability on a market to market basis. it's irony that the crises always happen with instruments you deem safe.

that is what we deemed safe when it came to the regional banks whether huge holdings of u.s. government debt -- with their huge holdings of u.s. government debt. tom: i would call it david goldman 101. everyone focuses on the garbage of the given derivative instrument. it's on the quality instruments, the quality trenches where we see the pain. we will dive into the annual report with the succession plans of jp morgan with sonali basak and 30 minutes. economic data. a poignant tuesday, wednesday, thursday. the jobs report on friday. we will have full coverage as well. futures up 13%. this is bloomberg surveillance. lisa m.: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, i'm lisa mateo. the new york city police department, secret service and other authorities are on high alert as donald trump is said to

be arraigned this afternoon in lower manhattan. the former president's indictment sparked a firestorm as he makes a comeback bid for the white house. his lawyer say he will plead not guilty. the case involves hush money payments made to a porn star during the 26 campaign. taiwan is defending its president's plan to meet with u.s. lawmakers, led by kevin mccarthy. the meeting is set for wednesday in southern california. taiwan says it is the right of taiwanese to have exchanges with democratic counties. china says it will take what it calls resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty. russia has taken over the rotating presidency of the united nations security council. its ambassador made it clear it will use the opportunity to rebut his defense of the war in ukraine. the u.n. -- the u.s. ambassador called it an april fools' day joke and said russia will use the chance to spread disinformation. jamie dimon is taking a shot at

the federal reserve over the banking crisis. in his annual letter to shareholders the ceo of j.p. morgan chase wrote that silicon valley bank's blunders when attested by the fed. he says they were hiding in plain sight until wall street and depositors were alarmed. the university of connecticut has won its fifth ncaa men's basketball title. the huskies be san diego state 76-59 and monday nights final in houston. yukon -- was named the tournament most outstanding player. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo and this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are still going to see inflation go up but we have seen wage gains moderating quite a bit.

that is a hopeful sign. the disinflationary process is a process. we are not there yet. tom: at the university of michigan, lisa cook. we moved to the main 3 meeting -- may 3 meeting. a busy day of fed speak. lisa abramowicz in washington. i am tom keene in new york. how did your bracket workout? lisa: i think i failed. march madness took over in a different way considering the past couple of weeks with what we are dealing with. tom: feel better. your bracket was better than mine. we have a wonderful annual ritual at bloomberg with the brackets. it is something to do with the parquet floors. steve pagliuca, co-owner of the boston celtics.

he was the winner of the bloomberg brackets because he -- how did he do this? he picked uconn to win march madness. $1 million brackets will go to his charity reform alliance, helping people get out of prison and move on to constructive jobs. i have to note in a careful review -- we provide transparency here at bloomberg. we went from -- peter grower came in here underperforming is how we will constructively put that. bill and jay clayton together, the first time they have been together underperforming. cliff asniss. one michael bloomberg did better

than good. jonathan gray of blackstone all aced out by steve pagliuca. what did you do to win this bracket? is it like the day-to-day grind of the celtics means you have it all figured out? steve: i wish that was the case. i was just lucky and happy to have the money go to the alliance, these amazing charities set up by robert kraft and michael rubin to give prisoners work. four million people are on parole and the system needs to be reformed. i'm very grateful to bloomberg and to the basketball gods that helped me this year. tom: the basketball gods gave us as well -- i'm not up to speed on this. if i'm out of turn, say so. boy, did the women deliver this year. it was a real turning point where america paid attention in a new way to women's ncaa basketball.

steve: absolutely. all of women's sports are getting more attention. people love to watch sports and the level of competition was probably the best ever. fantastic final. tom: an important day for all global wall street and american wall street. jamie dimon jp morgan published a letter. they speak of the storm clouds to come. this is them looking at svb and the banking crisis. how did the storm clouds look from boston this morning? steve: we have talked about this before. lots of tough dynamics right now. the war in ukraine, oil prices going up, interest rates gapping up which is causing problems. we are definitely heading into murky waters. the good news is there are a lot of jobs out there. technology is coming back. biotech is growing.

we have some pockets of good things happening. we are in the midst of a correction we were we are at a ten-year growth bubble based on cheap money and it will be painful coming out of that. lisa: what is the distinction between a credit crunch and just credit tightening as many people see ongoing right now? steve: well, take credit crunch is a total lack of liquidity. right now you are seeing tightening. we are getting back to normalized interest rates. for most of my career they have been 4.5% or 5%. only in the last 12 or 13 years have they gapped down. cheap money has brought prosperity but now we are paying the price for that long time cheap money. we are seeing a tightening now. i don't think we are seeing a crunch. bank of america is very well-capitalized today. lisa: that's why people can

still take out credit cards and take out loans if they have good credit. thanks are continuing to lend to businesses that continue to hire in a major way. does this make debt look much more valuable then even the equity side of the balance sheet as an investor simply because they can pay back their debts but perhaps equity needs a reevaluation? steve: i step back and say it is based on the price you pay for the asset. we have been in periods where the bubbles are 10% equity, 90% debt. those days are gone. deals are much more conservatively financed so the debt burden are not as high. 60% debt, 50% debt is common with today's structures. you are now seeing some opportunities in the tech sector and other companies down to reasonable valuations. lisa: based on what you see the

company's that you work with and see and the fans that go into roast all the games continue to spend money, do you feel like people who are calling for a recession are perhaps misguided? do you think you are seeing a softening by empirical data? steve: we have not seen the empirical data yet showing a dramatic softening. airlines are still full. restaurants are still full. we have not seen that in our companies. it can be with the expense of money out there a pullback in credit markets. right now consumers are still out there. we have not seen the data. i'm worried about the recent oil price increase that will increase inflation. will that bring higher interest rates? i think we are maybe heading towards recession but a soft

landing. tom: the basic idea here of what the celtics did to the bucks, and this is on the edge of what uconn did. are the celtics destined like the university of connecticut? steve: we have a great bunch of players on and off the court. they pulled a fantastic game against milwaukee but milwaukee is a fantastic team. as they say in the 100 years of sports, you have to take it one game at a time. that is what they are doing and hopefully do that for the rest of the season and in the playoffs. steve pagliuca, but the charity of robert kraft, as he is the winner of our bracket this year. i am absolutely fascinated by this. the business of sports, it seems like post-pandemic it has taken on a whole new energy.

i don't know what to make of it. are we going to be starting paying shortstops billions of dollars over a lifetime? there's a whole new energy to the land of paliuca. lisa: how much is the post-pandemic world and how much is it a trend building over the past decade or 20 years with a shift in the market, shifts in the financing of some of these teams? it seems as if the business of sports is getting so much more attention, not just from investors but also on a broader level. this is something that has been building. the oil price issue. the oil prices mean potentially higher inflation? do they mean higher rates? how much has the game changed? how much do the cuts from opec-plus change the narrative, maybe not super material but marginal?

we are hearing that. it is not being born out in the market, at least on the debt side. it continues to be on the oil market. tom: you can watch debt with hydrocarbons. there's a study of where is the breach of resistance on brent crude. it's amateur level $90 per barrel. we are not there yet. $85.61 a barrel. i need to do a data check to get us to the next hour. sonali basak on the succession plans alluded to by mr. diamond -- mr. dimon. not as buoyant as what we saw two hours ago but nonetheless a lift. the spread comes in fractionally. thank you greg peters. the real yield. this has my attention. 1.14% on the real yield. that is a lower real yield over the last number of days. two-year, 4.02%.

lisa abramowicz in washington. jonathan ferro is on assignment. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪

when i was his age, we had to be inside to watch live sports. but with xfinity, we get the fastest mobile service and can stream down the street or around the block! hey, can you be less sister, more car? all right, let's get this over with. switch to xfinity mobile and get the best price for 2 lines of unlimited. just $30 a line per month. i should get paid more for this. you get paid when you win. from xfinity. home of the 10g network. when people come, they say they've tried

lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't. the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you.

>> i feel like the sources of inflation. >> if things are better, we're

going to see inflation tolerance. >> i do not think the fed is seeking that restrictive level of policy. >> it doesn't work. >> this is bloomberg surveillance, with tom keene, lisa abramowicz. tom: countdown to sooner loan officer -- countdown to a senior loan officer. john is off today. i am in washington dc labor market data is going to be from focus today as people try to understand whether this is a market that is hanging onto steam or whether it is rolling over as quickly as some are pricing it. lisa: there's a new intent to

look at the data from tuesday into friday. tom: the major issue here, michael mckee is better at this than i am. when you tweak the gdp estimates, we had a buoyant above 3%. we are down to a first corner beneath 2%. that changes labor analysis. lisa: manufacturing coming in at the weakest pace coming back to the height of the pandemic raising questions about how quickly we could see the shift we are seeing priced into the bond market with rate cuts pushed back. even though some of the this market has it wrong, the fed has it right. tom: mastec, 13,300. barbara said look, international

had their moment and now it is time for the united states to outperform. that was a major equity message of the morning. lisa: it has been for the most part. i we just seeing 20 stocks support pretty much the entire market. i think that is why people are looking closely at the apples of the world as .22 see how far they can carry things forward. tom: 10 year yield under 3.5%. of the equity market with a parma lift we have seen within the last number of weeks. lisa: yeah.

you could see a inverted yield curve back to some of the inversions we have seen earlier this year. we have been talking about resilience in the face of a banking turbulence. markel warns the fed indicated no interest to cut interest rates. european stocks trading at all-time highs. u.s. stocks recovering all-time highs. tom: we got to stop. i'm so glad you brought this up. jon ferro would have featured this. is anybody listening to that guy anymore? i say this with humans respect for his intellectual trucks.

where has marco been? lisa: he has had a round-trip. if the helm of the equity research is there, it reasons the bear case at a time when the wolves are becoming -- bulls are becoming more entrenched on the position and we are not clear on who is going to be right. i think you raised a good question, which is how do you figure out who to listen to in time with such little information. megan, how do you look at to some compass to figure out where you should stack up? megan: we are leaning towards more of a intermedia bear term case for not only the economy, but for the equity. markets the s&p 500 is up 7% from its recent low. the vix is a low below 20.

s&p 500 approaching 19 times. it looks like the market got ahead of itself in regards to with the expectation can be for the federal reserve. we do not believe that the federal reserve cut rates this year. we think they will have to raise rates one more time and stay on hold. we have seen that with this pretty big rally. it is really a handful of names leading this rally because they are anticipating that the fed cannot take their foot off the paddle and cut rates. we do not see that happening. tom: we talk a lot about how people keep rewriting their views and keep changing their baseline assumptions. how have your baseline assumptions changed in the past three months? megan: we were nervous about the economy. there were a lot of signs that the consumer was not going to be

as resilient as it was. that was our base case that we would probably see a recession or a significant slowdown in growth. the ranking turmoil that we have and another layer of risk to economic growth through tightening lending standards. throw in the fact that the fed's hands are now tied. you now have oil prices that are going to make the fed's job even more difficult. we have gotten concerned about the economic growth climate for this year. we have started to take some of the risks off the table within the equity market. tom: you talk about commercial real estate. i have been studying this. city to city on what is happening in the united states,

do you look at commercial real estate ask discrete and separate to the real estate world -- as discrete and separate to the real estate world or does a curvy eight out to the broader market? megan: i think people are getting complacent to what risks that could have to be market. commercial real estate was already a concern. you talk about this maturity wall. at the same time you have a banks tightening lending standards because what is happening in the first quarter. that is a recipe for some downside on the commercial real estate space. for residential real estate, we have to keep in mind we have a structural shortage of homes leave the united states. long-term, that still have some support. commercial real estate is something no one is really

talking about. tom: what are your clients doing right now? maybe they had a bull market in they participated in it. what is the move now in the first week of april along capital clients? megan: our clients are longer-term, we look at the broader asset allocation. we do have clients that agree. with what we are doing, take some risk off the table because you have to look at where the market is priced. the market has seen a big move higher, not only in the fourth quarter, but banking crisis. it doesn't warrant taking risk off the table. in the fixed income market you are starting to get some yields. be ready to look for opportunities when they arise.

lisa: are you likely to invest in oil majors given what we saw yesterday and over the weekend? megan: the sector has seen such a rally. it has had such a rally. we still like it because it is similar to housing structurally. we have not solved the injured -- energy issue globally. there still support for the energy sector. it does tend to be one of the bigger return potentials when you come out of a recession. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciate this this morning.

we are going to focus on the james dimon leisure and any possible -- letter and any possible succession. i think we have got to do it overly with the letter. i perceive it as big analysis -- bank analysis and then at perceived as statements on the banking crisis and regulators. as mr. nyman, i'm wondering if he is lobbing to be the secretary -- mr. diamond, i'm wondering if he is lobbying to be the secretary of state after janet yellen. lisa: we have seen a lot. we will get some sense of what he is trying to extend in terms of a message to washington, d.c. on the banking front, the message is clear. . you made us have all of this

capital on our books. we are safe and sound. you know there was a problem at svb and you did nothing. this is a warning shot saying, stop it, be consistent, do not over regulate and do not tax us for your problems. that is what i read. tom: the messaging that they are selling is any company would do within a general report, two .5 trillion sustainable development target. 2 million to support ukraine. number one in customer satisfaction. lisa: we will tell jamie dimon. our people will talk to his. tom: there is too much optimism today. a renaissance micro, one of our

most popular guests. somewhat towards optimism. good morning. lisa: there has never been a day like this in manhattan. former president trump is in town to surrender to law enforcement officers to be booked, their the charges against him and into his plea. the case involves hush money to a pouring star. porn star. oil has extended its rally. west texas intermediate was up after rising 6% on monday. it prompted many banks to jack up there price forecast. lisa cook says inflation in the u.s. has started easing. she warns that price pressures could stay in place due to a

tight labor markets, the war in ukraine and the reopening of china. it will be important to watch how much more credit titans in the way of conveying turmoil. finland is becoming the 34th member of nato. finland addition will bring the military alliance more than 800 miles from the border with russia. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

>> the median person says a little over 5%. i am a little higher than that. oil prices fluctuate around, it is hard to track exactly. some of that might into inflation and make our job difficult. tom: yesterday, he mentioned no words on it. lisa has talked about oil

migrating up $69. west texas is now $81. 80.99. the two year yield back up at 4%. lisa abramowicz in washington, our conversation and the international monetary fund is moving to our washington spring meeting coverage. jonathan ferro is off today. with the delicacies of the annual reports, what is a big guy going to do? james dimon says, you know what comeau have got hit -- you know what, you we have got hit by the strategy. winston churchill was seriously hit by a car on fifth avenue. this is a serious thing that

every company must do. how does a visible jp morgan set up a --. >> who takes over if jamie dimon is not there at jp morgan. he says every board meeting with or without the seal is also about the chairman. he has one very clear number two, but he also has two women who has been rising into different roles, not leaving community thinking more than 66 million people, households serving around the world over at jp morgan that these two women are responsible for. tom: they leave jp morgan because he is going to be there forever with his annual letter, what is the measurement of forever from mr. nyman?

-- mr. diamond. sonali: how many times do people say, is a jp morgan to big without jamie dimon. is this another citigroup situation, which of course jamie dimon was his protege as well. are these two women ready to take over, how soon would they take over, what else do they need to take over. we had jennifer here who have had different parts of the bank under her wing. they talk about the different relationships with investors. also, those large investors that they deal with as a asset manager that is only becoming an important part of the bank. lisa: when we talk about personalities, how much is the message she was sending to washington dc -- how much does

that take on a new precedent or prominence in the discussion on how to handle some of the bank failures we have seen of late. sonali: he talks about how jp morgan banks 350 over america's thousands of america's own conveying spirit we talk about . deposits at large banks are now $1 trillion. you think about this whole cell shifting banking system and what it means for america's banks. the ability to bring in deposits as well as a linden out to communities. there's a conundrum that has been burrowing for structural reasons in the market. is not saying do not regulate the bank, he says think of what will make the banking system

healthier. i think that is the failure that is being had as we watch the failure of silicon valley bank. lisa: when they regulate, they create problems, including having a lot of the banks hold huge portfolios with treasuries and then having to figure out what to do with market losses. what is his influence in washington dc at a time where banks -- but aren't welcomed with open arms. we had a return to the kennel bringing ceos of down to congress again -- we had a return where the annual bringing ceos down to congress again. sonali: those banks have been grilled, particularly when it comes to mortgages. it has becoming a attractive

business in so many ways because wall street has left the business behind. tom: when i read the letter, every word of it, full disclosure with a beverage of my trust in my hand. is he running french secretary -- running for secretary -- he is talking about democracy, is this guy running for secretary of treasury? are we going to be talking about secretary nyman? sonali: i think it was interesting when our own asked the question, he shunned the idea at that time. he has said he wanted to say at the home of j.p. morgan. tom: secretary melania million years ago -- secretary mullen, a million years ago, how do you say no to that job?

sonali: i think the question is, whether these thinkers have a future in government in future -- bankers have a future in government in the future. there's a lot of criticism in wall street when you look at the biden administration about whether some of the regulators have the intimacy when it comes to the financial industry to regulate. that is stressed by means of supervision appropriately -- that is by means of supervision appropriately. tom: are we going to see a lot of layoffs? sonali: i think you're going to see a lot of people being brought on in the layoffs he have seen. usually jp morgan leads off the wave. you have to wonder what happens

next thursday when we get all of those answers from first republic nobody today knows. it is kind of the more important story today. tom: did you get a advanced copy of this letter? lisa is the only one who got an advanced copy. sonali: you know what he is going to cover every year. tom: lisa, i look at the data screen today and i guess we are turning -- turning really important labor date. all of a sudden from joel's to the job reports --jolts to the job reports. lisa: it will probably turn upward by the end of the day because that seems to be the

mood, at least that what it was yesterday. is there a signal? is there a signal in risk assets continuing to rally, despite people saying all of the negatives coming out one after the other? tom: we do have the time here for worrying lecture --. . boring lecture. add on inflation to real gdp you, boy does that change the dynamics, including what we will see in washington. we move onto the meetings in the world brings in the international monetary fund. this is a bloomberg surveillance.

go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson.

hi, i'm lauren, i lost 67 pounds in 12 months on golo. smarter and more sustainable. golo and the release has been phenomenal in my life. it's all natural. it's not something that gives you the jitters. it makes you go through your days with energy, and you're not tired anymore, and your anxiety, everything is gone. it's definitely worth trying. it is an amazing product.

tom: good morning, everyone. jon ferro is up-to-date. thank you so much -- jon ferro is off today. thank you so much. ambassador hollis will join us with this wonderful new book and what we are observing in lower manhattan and we will have all of the coverage for you this afternoon of the

arraignment of a former president. maria is in brussels. a historic day for europe. never in my imagination would i consider finland to join nato. a real treat for optimist on the american economic experience. future is up 12 right now. i got a 4.00% to year yield. he is aware we have moved from gdp number under 2% as well. neild dutta, is it a value? neil: like anything, your assumptions drive your conclusions. the isn manufacturing pmi does

not get booked into the gdp calculation it is important to remember that the gdp estimate. what goes into gdp is auto sales. auto sales came out better than expected in march. consumption of motor vehicles will be a significant boost to first quarter gdp. i remember that because of the ism number, the fed has had a sharp downward revision to their consumption estimates. it is important to understand how these numbers work as opposed to mildly say, look. . , it is down not that easy. tom: we appreciate the analysis of it versus it is down and out.

what is the state of the american consumer. many of us witnessing packed airplanes, planned travel, rural worried about -- rural worried. what is the state of the consumer? neil: real incomes have been climbing. i expect real incomes to continue climbing into the second quarter. natural gas prices have come down. . that is going to bleed into household utility bills over the second quarter. that is going to be stronger real income growth in the second quarter which will support real consumer spending. i know there's a lot of angst around the consumer and we have gone from talking about weird

seasonal adjustment factors. at the end of the day, when you look at consumer spending to where it was for the pandemic, it is off the charts. i think the bear still has a lot of explaining to do. i do not think the consumer is about to fall off the clip here. tom: you have been dead on about the --. this a new respect for nominal gdp, which is real gdp with a movable dynamic of inflation overlaid on top of it. you have a nominal gdp, and, whether real or topline then a boost into corporate revenues as well, maybe giving us a poignant stock market. what does nominal gdp do over the next nine months? neil: the sort of calls that

basically overlay corporate learnings over the ism pointless. it is all in the market. it is very difficult to get a steeper earning recession at this point, not all incomes are running. nominal growth is running five to 6%. the dollars off six and a half percent over the last six months or so. that is also a tell one for corporate earnings. it is a tell when for real expert activity over the next couple of years. a lot of what is traded in the markets are enlarged multi-that does a lot overseas. the global economy is looking better than it did last year. that is going to bleed into corporate earnings, which should support u.s. equity.

tom: we have to run out to brussels in the historic moment for europe. finally here on the fed derby, all of the gloom that is out there, the fed has to adapt in a responsible data-dependent way. what data matters for them on the road to may 3? neil: jimmy it is employment and inflation -- to me it is employment and inflation. we only get one jobs number between now and the may meeting. it is not enough time. that being said, the consensus and the fed are assuming a sudden stop in the economy. recession is eminent. these are things you hear from the economic community.

i think the economy is not collapsing, we are probably growing at potential. that is good to me the unemployment rate is not want to rise in a way everyone expects. that leaves inflation unresolved. give it until june, we have a couple of more stock numbers at that point. ultimately, i think that is going to mean the next federal move will be the hike. tom: thanks for joining us this morning. there is history made in europe. i cannot emphasize enough the importance of this moment i'm imaginable within any thinking i have ever done on international relations. the flag is a young flag and a flag of a blue cross. coming out of world war i, finland was formed under different constituents.

today, finland, the independent finland will join nato. with this historic moment in brussels are maria. as simple as i can, they will join this group. why do they leave neutrality? >> because of the war in ukraine that changed the game for finland. the reason why we are going to see the flag friday here -- fly here is the war in ukraine. this was a shock in eastern europe, this idea in 2023, russia by force can attack a neighbor. this is not something in the past. this is happening right now in europe. it was a huge wake-up call.

you would have never imagined a day like this. this shows real-time the ramifications of this war. this is history in the making, a country going from neutrality to joining what is now the biggest military alliance of the world. tom: is it feasible that switzerland will follow or swindon under debate right now. i understand turkish swedish tensions, will there be others behind finland? maria: that is a complicated one. you look at countries like austria, which is neutral. the next that will be swindon. two countries that wanted to join. now it has become a split. because of their problems. the next one here is going to be swindon. they want to get this country, meaning sweden in nato.

very soon we will be talking about 32 again. this is history in the making. tom: the history that the fins are extremely government with a gun in their hands. will there be some form of law on that long border north and south region finland and russia? maria: what is clear is that, finland has been preparing. this is already years in the making. this is a very traumatic episode for the country. it is the reason why they have the sympathy for ukraine that this idea. in terms of what nato brings to

finland and what finland brings to nato. the systems they use are compatible. this will be emboldened by finland joining in today. this is a huge political win. tom: i can't say enough, for those of you a bit younger, this is extraordinary. we are seeing so much here in the last number of weeks as i have mentioned. two see king charles the third, to see finland joining nato upside down. we will drive forward, this conversation continuing to look at economic financial investment. return to the market were to for support in the economic data really depends on a vengeance.

10:00 a.m., the job openings. michael mckee suggesting the key labor data may be flies below the radar. the adp report of, claims on thursday and the job report friday as well. we continue this conversation on america, our civic responsibility and diplomacy. richard joins us on this historic day for nato and finland in moments. please stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg radio and surveillance. lisa: the new york city police department, u.s. secret service and other authorities are on

high alert asked donald trump is set to be arraigned in lower manhattan. he makes a comeback bid for the white house. just lawyers say he will plead not guilty. the case -- his lawyers say he will plead not guilty. the meeting is set for wednesday in southern california. taiwan says it is the right of taiwanese to have exchanges with democratic counties. it will take as it is called resolute measures to safeguard in sovereignty. russia has taken over the rotating presidency of the united nations security council. it will use the opportunity to promote its defense of the war in ukraine.

warner bros. discovery is close to a deal for a online tv series are based on the best-selling harry potter young adult books. each system will be based on one of jk rowling's best sellers. warner bros. turned each of the books into a hit movie. the national women's soccer league has awarded the rights to an expansion team to include the investment firm, 6th street. the investment is the largest to date in women's soccer. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. mp this is bloomberg. oyee, even if it received ppp, and all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application; that easy.

and if your business doesn't get paid, we don't get paid. getrefunds.com has helped businesses like yours claim over $2 billion but it's only available for a limited time. go to getrefunds.com, powered by innovation refunds. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989!

anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. >> across europe there is a concern whether donald trump is

coming back. that matters for europe because it is taking it as a sign that the united states would not be committed to pass. we all know in the u.s. the military support has saved the day when it comes to the war. tom: she was on fire today opossum of the selective topics in international -- she was on fire today about some of the selective topics. futures up 19. i think we need to see the economic data. we will see that at 10:00 this morning. dollar weaker a little. i do not want to make too much of that. this is jordan rochester coming up modeling 115, 120 euro-dollar. it puts it into new territory.

all international relations. richard is about to walk out of the stage here. author of the bill of obligations, the 10 habits of good citizenship. this morning where our heads are spinning. h richardaas -- richard haas joining us. you are falling asleep on a afternoon and someone said finland will forever remain neutral. here you and i looking at finland to enter nato. how did we get here? dr. haas i would have said the cold war is permanent. so much has happened that i did not anticipate. this was a part of the unattended consequence of motion -- mr. putin's war. people thought nato lacked a

rationale. it's old rationale has came back on stilts. the fact that finland is in nato moving into the direction, this is where putin is wrong. we never could have done it. if i look at the map, i do not have it in front of me. tom: if you come down to the bottom and move over to the east, nato is not all that far from st. petersburg. it is remarkable. we worried about ukraine being closed, robert gates and others pushing back on ukraine and nato. nato the st. petersburg now. richard: you have far more on the border for russia to worry about. this makes zero sense. i think what shows from putin's point of view, he did not see much of it happening. he put so much of a emphasis on ukraine.

he rolled the dice. whatever costs he has to pay, manpower, economically, strategically, he is prepared to pay. he has put at risk his own political future and russia. tom: finland officially joins nato, its 31st member. maria is in brussels and we will be looking for sarah they are in the next hour. the home event, i have to go to 5th avenue plus trumped tower, maybe down into center street as well. your comments in -- the bill and obligations that president trump has two this process of indictment and arraignment. richard: it is more than eight obligation to follow the law. obligations are things you

should do but do not have to do. donald trump has been a serial violator of obligations. the idea of norms, the peaceful transfer of political power, the most basic defining norm of american democracy. he violated that. he violates on a daily basis. this signaling about political violence, another violation, the idea of putting the country before a party or person. his whole career is a violation of the obligation. we have a system for dealing with it. obligations are something citizens have to insist upon. that brings it all back to the ballot box. i think what this indictment has done this frozen the other republican candidates and increases the odds donald trump is a republican nominee. he is one of the two most likely to be the next president of the united states i do not want to

be inflammatory. tom: there's a move of disunion. i do not want to go there. this absolute floral -- polarization that we see with the former president poll ratings and such. with your people, how close are we to a dialogue of this union if not outright this union. richard: i am not worried about formal disunion. we already have very separate americans. look at life expectancies. people are really suffering by geography, religion, table shows the watch of. they country founded on ideas, we no longer have a sense of ideas.

we are not requiring civics. i am not worried about his civil war, i am worried about something else. we were teasingly cleared -- teasingly. this spring we marked 25 years since so-called troubles. it pretty much came to an end. i worried about an american version of the trouble, where we can have decentralized political violence. but is not something we can dismiss. tom: how have the troubles in ireland been different? how have the troubles been different if we would have twitter at the time? richard: much worse. what social media -- is called social media. twitter allows people to travel disinformation or selective information. that is what social media does.

it reinforces the travelers and -- tribalism of any society. we are celebrating the declaration of independence. we were not made in some ways of social media. tom: look where we are. our president that will go to arraignment. but he speaks tonight from mar-a-lago. what would you want to hear from president trump from mar-a-lago? richard: politically tough -- country first -- put the country first appeared not to attack judges, prosecutors. part of what makes america is the role of law. all of the business people watching your show. what i would like to see donald trump to do is to respect the

law. tom: the tendency of 2022 was a shock of february and vladimir putin. he has to be thunderstruck today in not only does what he sees in the united states, what he sees in finland as well. how would you presume someone so clustered in the kremlin. how would you respond to these 2023 sharks? richard: he will be in some ways failing -- here. the time is on his side. the united states and european support for ukraine is eventually week. a lot of our allies are uneasy about a return of trumpism. for someone like putin and

others in the middle east, they would welcome the possibility of us going back to the future. tom: the world was a book of the summer, it was the summer book you through at a older child and said, shut up and read this. richard hass. in all of the years of doing this act, i have never seen so many disparate threads on one day here. it was the foundation of what we do and bloomberg surveillance? it is economic data. michael mckee will give you a survey. the jolt surveys is our -- to find out.

this is bloomberg. good morning.

so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com.

matt: i am miller, in her jonathan you're looking at teachers right now in the s and nasdaq, and the small-cap. the countdown to the open starts right now. announcer: everything you need to get started. this is bloomberg "the open." ♪ matt: