>> good morning. welcome to bloomberg daybreak australia.

>> good evening. the top stories this hour. thanks shares declined. >> the rbnz expected to slow the pace of its tightening. >> former u.s. president donald trump pleads not guilty to 34 criminal counts in a new york courtroom. we are getting the central bank right decision not of actually. they are leaving it at 11.25% as expected. consumer prices are still high. rising 12% on the year in february. policymakers expecting that

inflation will be back in single digits by may. we have seen expectations of fed rate hikes being repriced into today's markets. take a look at how u.s. futures are trading at the moment. higher by 1/10 of a percent. at this as we saw the plunge in the new york session. the banking crisis warned to be felt for years. this data was even before last months failures. markets react pretty strongly. paul: let's take a look at our

asian markets. central banks going to be in focus today. we will get a right decision from the rbnz -- a right decision from the rbnz. we are seeing a little bit of weakness in the early going off by about a 10th of 1%. at the head of the aussie open we are expecting a softer open of the asx as well. not a lot of movement in the aussie dollar. the rba pulsates rate hike -- caused its rate hike cycle. we may see one more hike from the rba in may. take a look at the y 13169

against the greenback. shery: let's get a little bit more on the latest economic news in the united states. let's bring in our global editor kathleen hays. kathleen, let me start with you. what is the specific data telling us? >> this is a job survey and labor survey. there is loosening up, but it is still tight. fed officials are focused on the type part. job openings fell to 9.9 million. but look how high they remain. before the pandemic, they were averaging around 7000 or 8000. then they spike up because there were so many job openings than

people who wanted to go back to work after the pandemic. still pretty high. the vacancy to unemployment ratio fell. but it still shows tightness. the labor market is not getting very soft just yet. we heard the fed board of governors saying she still sees tightness. the labor market still hoping to put some pressure on inflation. no signals they are ready to adjust and move towards a less rate hikes or a pause. shery: emily, what are the markets telling us because we saw treasury yields slumping today. >> perhaps they were taking the signal from the jolts in -- market pretty clearly. if you think it is getting

relatively weaker then maybe we are heading towards a recession, because of it you will want to buy bonds. the fed is looking at this thinking relatively weaker labor market, maybe they will ease up on that tightening and you will also want to buy bonds. yields lower today. the message from the stock market less clear. i still have sources asking is a weaker labor market good or bad for stocks? we were weaker today in the s&p 500 but we were coming off four straight days of gains. still waiting for the payroll report on friday. paul: u.s. stocks have had a great quarter. we saw weakness in today's session. why is there bearishness? >> there is a ton of bearishness and anybody who was positioned

that way certainly got crushed in this corner in the u.s. equity market. we have data coming in that is pointing to bearishness persistent in the equity market. 85% of respondents in a goldman sachs survey said they were bearish or neutral. last week, clients of bank of america sold their u.s. equity stocks at the biggest rate since october. jp morgan saying we are heading toward a recession in the next 12 months. we will see stocks test those october lows. if you are contrary and you might take this to be a bullish signal.

the valuations in equity markets are still too high, they still have to come down. we have earnings season coming up. it is going to be a tough earnings season. we have not seen the effects of this bad tightening fully work its way through but stock market. paul: i want to bring it back to my part of the world. we did not see a pause from the bank of new zealand yesterday. >> they have been one of the more aggressive central banks of the world. they think there might be a little bit more to go. we are expecting a 25 basis point rate hike today. downshifted from 25 to 50.

what you see is inflation is still high. the inflation rate is 7.2%. you can see how it has leveled out. but one quarter the economy contracted. not exactly a recession yet. fears of a global recession. 50% of the population will face higher mortgage payments. shery: donald trump is heading back to florida after pleading not guilty in a new york courtroom to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. let's go to simone foxman in new

york. we finally have details of these charges against the former president. >> we do and they largely fall in line with what we were speculating about. they have to do with hush-money payments made to porn star stormy daniels the head of the 2016 election. $130,000 in total were made by michael cohen, donald trump's longtime attorney. what the district attorney says is that these payments and the falsification of business records that followed them all were in an attempt to mislead the public in a criminal way about the 2016 election. that the falsification of business records that took place ultimately violated tax laws and state and federal election laws.

but that will be a tall order for the district attorney to prove. paul: did we hear anything in the courtroom that might impact trumps bid for the 2024 election? >> a conviction or even charges themselves not going to stand in the way of donald trump running for president in 2024. he will have to contend with orders by the judge who has the defense and prosecutors to not say anything that could inflame public unrest. we thought he may be referring to a post that trump made on truth social, an article that had an image of trump with a baseball bat next to a picture of alvin bragg. we know that trump is a very

outspoken individual and so this order by the judge to keep everything under wraps is something that will hang over his head for quite a while. we are not likely to see this case continue for the better part of a year. we are looking to december or january. paul: let's get a check of the first word news. jamie dimon says the banking sector turmoil is not over and its impact will be felt for years. in a letter to shareholders he says silicon valley bank's blunders were encouraged by regulation and went untested by the federal reserve and were hiding in plain sight. he wants authorities to address the issues about cautions them against overreacting with more rules. the chairman of credit suisse has apologized for failing to stem the crisis. axel lehmann was speaking at the

bank's annual shareholder meeting. he says the bank could not be saved. >> have already same trust eroded and with it patients dwindled. at bat, we failed. -- at that, we feel. it is a bitter reality to see that our strategy did not have time to bear fruit. paul: new zealand has posted a record fall in house prices. prices fell 10.5%, the largest annual drop since 2003. it is the 12th consecutive month of declines.

pakistan's central bank raised its benchmark rate to 21% as the nation teeters on the brink of default. the bank says the rate is an important step toward anchoring inflation expectations toward the medium-term target. those are the first word headlines. shery: still ahead, our coverage of donald trump's arraignment continues. but first, we talk investment strategy with charles schwab and why basing see the global economy heading for volatility. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: let's take a look at how u.s. futures and treasuries are doing at the moment. kind of flat really. the two year yield at 3.82. we did get commentary earlier from pimco saying bonds and stocks sinking from different him sheets right now and only one of them is right. charles schwab managing director liz ann sonders joins us now. you see more volatility and more

inflation, you called these markets temperamental. how are you treating? >> you said higher inflation and volatility. i think we will have more inflation volatility, meaning not inflation staying high on some secular level, but more ups and downs and inflation. temperamental is the term i am using to describe the 30 years or so prior to they are great modernization. -- moderation, where we had basically disinflation most of the time, lower interest rates, not as much geopolitical instability. i think we are going back to an apartment more can to when we had more inflation volatility, so shorter cycles and more frequent recessions and more

geopolitical instability. i think there are a lot of investors who only have experience in that great moderation era. paul: we have the market pricing in before the end of the year. is that a case of being careful for what we wish for? what sort of shape of the economy be in? >> the bond market may be right that the fed not just pauses, but pivots to rate cuts. the circumstances that would dread that would not be great. it would probably be either more significant deterioration of the economy and particularly the labor market or the banking problems turning to a more contagious, systemic issue, which does not look to be the

case now. some combination or one or the other would be a condition for pivot. there might be ample justification for a pause, but without either of those conditions, i would take the fed at its word that whatever point to get at the terminal rate, the reclamation is to stay there for a more extended period of time to make sure the inflation is not let out of the bag again like was the case in the 1970's. shery: we heard from jerry -- jamie dimon today, saying the banking turmoil we have seen will be felt for years to come. even if we do not necessarily get the traditional credit crunch, blood is signaling -- what is it sigma going regarding easy money? >> i would like to think that jamie dimon could be wrong.

it is certainly the case there should be ongoing pressure on smaller and regional banks, especially if we start to see more things unwind out of commercial real estate given their heightened exposure to that. that is still distinct from this being the systemic crisis that existed in 2008. i think the end of this era of easy money is not just a risk we are now focus on in the banking system with deposit outflows, but also had been a significant support for zombie companies, for the creation of ongoing support of many startups, longer duration companies. i think the naked swimmer is more than just embedded in the

banking system. i think there is probably more to come, whether it is -- it is in terms of business failures come up bankruptcies, layoffs, which is another thing that is different about this contraction , its bat layoffs are happening more top down -- that layoffs are happening more top down. that is very unique in this cycle. shery: if we are headed into this cycle of uncertainty, what does it mean in terms of moving up in quality when it comes to looking at your portfolio? >> we have been emphasizing more factor oriented investing as opposed to the more traditional

growth versus value. or even the index constituents and what we think of as growth and value. so we have been very factor focused. it is just characteristics. they represent from a macro perspective what is missing in the current environment. so look for companies that have strong cash flows, they do not have high interest costs, they do not have to come to the banking system to fund their operations,, look for companies that have positive earnings revisions. and the rebalancing component, a lot of investors will rebalance based on the calendar.

if you can, may be considered volatility based rebalancing or light your portfolio tell you when it is time to rebalance. you are adding and trimming as your portfolio tells you things have gotten out of whack. those are some of the subtle shifts we have been -- suggested. paul: in that environment we have seen gold pushing at $2000 per ounce. >> we typically have a small, low digit allocation. we are not trading gold within our strategic allocation models. the pressure to gold is based on geopolitical concerns.

gold has acted more as a hedge for geopolitical uncertainty even more than as a hedge for inflation. it has been a less consistent inflation hedge. i think there has been that push into gold. you have to be my fold though of when sentiment moves to the significantly bullish side of the precious metals spectrum. there are so many more ways to trade, whether it is precious metals, commodities, currencies. shery: liz ann sonders, good to have you back. you can get all of these top stories that you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: we have a weaker u.s. dollar for a second session today. we are following the aussie, which fell in the previous session with the rba holding path. the rpms they likely to deliver on the 11th -- monday 11th straight rate hike. hi, i'm lauren, i lost 67 pounds in 12 months on golo. golo and the release has been phenomenal in my life. it's all natural. it's not something that gives you the jitters. it makes you go through your days with energy, and you're not tired anymore, and your anxiety, everything is gone. it's definitely worth trying.

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>> donald trump, executives that american media inc., michael cohen and others agreed in 2015 to a catch and kill scheme, a scheme to buy and suppress negative information to help mr. trump's chance of winning the election. shery: that is the manhattan da alvin bragg. our next guest says we all need to see the evidence on top of the charges. joining us as douglas heye from craft digital.

i think you so much for joining us today. what was your take away from today's court proceedings. >> two things. these are mostly felony charges, one including a conspiracy charge. conspiracy felony charges, judges and juries viewed the most serious. the next hearing will be in december, which means this will be a very long process. shery: what questions do you have now that we have seen the charges? do we have any answers to where this might lead eventually? >> we still have more questions than we have answers. legally, we do not know what evidence the da will put forward. what prosecution is preparing to say about donald trump. we saw the press conference, but

what is about specific evidence that fits with the crime? politically, how does this play into the political party? does this damage donald trump? in the short term, we have seen that it does not. in the long term, does it allow other candidates who might run there and said there is too much damage and drama. the other question is will there be more indictments? this seems to be the least serious indictment and we know more can come from georgia or the department of justice. paul: you mentioned the trial date will not be until the end of the year or the start of next year. not exactly swift justice. what does this mean for trump's supporters? >> and obviously has galvanized

trump supporters. his polling numbers have increased in the republican primary. more than $6 million raised for donald trump. he does things that candidates would typically not do. they are now selling t-shirts of a mugshot saying not guilty. you can buy back and support donald trump. but that is the core part of the republican base. while parts of the party -- will parts of the party, there is a market in the republican party to move past this chaos. as this process continues, will we see republicans making the same argument when bill clinton said even presidents have

private lives. what we are talking about here are the details around that. the senate said we should not worry about the details and that is why bill clinton was not convicted. will bat hold in this case too? paul: we are sharing that donald trump is back in florida and we are expecting him to speak in the near future. the judge warned all parties from refraining from making public statements that could incite violence. >> until there is a gag order, that if the only truth that can be put in place here. donald trump will do what donald trump does and we know that. one of the things we heard from republican leadership was that

this is outrageous, but please do not protest. if you work in the house, you know what that means. we had protests in front of the courthouse today. they were pretty meaningless. but the question about violence is not going anywhere. donald trump is going to make a speech, we will see what he says. but ultimately, does anyone act on that? shery: what is the trump campaign strategy? in the short term, we have seen a boom when it comes to fundraising. >> the strategy is monetize. my first visit at what used to be called the trump hotel, when he was president, it was the only private business he would visit. that was not accidental.

everything that donald trump does in business or in politics is about monetizing that. we are seeing that now. the other is the rhetoric. he will continue to call this a witch hunt. he will criticize the prosecutor, potentially the judge. we know there will be chaos within the trump team, there always is. we have seen some of his lawyers arguing against each other in television. they need to stop that. shery: donald trump talks off-the-cuff. he says things that are not scripted. we know this will continue for a long time. you said this is the weakest of the potential indictments to come. how much more difficult will it be for his campaign to navigate the situation with a potential criminal charge and what she is saying in public? >> as long as this is the one

indictment that is out there, they are in relatively safe territory with the republican primary. if more calm, that helps ron desantis and nikki haley to say that is just too much drama in chaos. when you talk about donald trump going off-the-cuff, saw an example of how that damages him today. when he walked through the court room it would've been a perfect example for anyone else to make a brief statement to define things on televised terms and then go in the courtroom. but because he cannot limit himself to 30 seconds, they did not do that. he will make a speech tonight and he will go off the ramble a lot. that is what he does. shery: douglas heye, a former

communications director for the rogue republican national. -- for the republican national committee. vacancies at u.s. employers drop in february to the locust -- lowest since 2021. the number of available positions increased to 9.9 million. the job market remains a key hurdle for the fed as it seeks to bring inflation down. italy is studying ways to curtail the influence of china's influence over parolee. -- pirelli. the discussions are the latest signs of rising tensions between

china and western countries over the control of key technologies. glenn youngkin will meet with the president of taiwan when he leads a mission to asia later this month. they will visit taipei, tokyo and seoul. the announcement of his trip comes ahead of the meeting between the president of taiwan and republican house leaders led by kevin mccarthy. an major avalanche slammed india , killing at least seven people. the incident took place on the outskirts of the capital of the himalayan state that borders china's tibet region. those are your first word headlines. paul: finland has officially joined nato, a historic u-turn

for the nordic country following russia's invasion of ukraine. + a double celebration in brussels, the 74th anniversary of nato with a new member. the flag you see behind me white and blue is findling. it becomes the new member to what is the world's biggest military alliance, a historic shift for the country which now abandon its to join nato. the president himself said the time of nonmilitary alliance had come to an end and a new era begins today. he did stress foreign policy when it comes to findling will not change, the country will still aspire for peace and stability. this is a historic shift come in many ways prompted by russia's invasion of ukraine. the question is how will russia respond. in brussels, bloomberg

television. shery: coming up next, the chairman of credit suisse apologizes to shareholders and admits the troubled bank cannot be saved as it prepares to be absorbed by rival ubs. this is bloomberg. ♪

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october were messed up setback. working with the regulators, we withstood it thanks to the tremendous efforts of our employees. yet the downward spiral of events leading to this faithful week intensified later in that week, swallowing everything. the bank cannot be saved. >> this will be our last ordinary general meeting. i am sure i do not need to tell you that i am deeply saddened by this. and it personally affects me a lot.

unfortunately, we did not succeed in the end. we ran out of time. this fills me with sorrow. paul: credit suisse's top executive speaking at the banks annual shareholder meeting. that will be the last shareholder meeting of credit suisse. let's get more details on this front. shareholders getting an apology. what else did the chairman said? >> he said he was deeply saddened. he talked about the personal effect on him. the ceo was also very apologetic. those apologies are no good for shareholders right now. this is a 167-year-old institution. the chairman also did say they tried to save and looked at every option until the very end and they could not stand the

impact of legacy scandals and they failed to counter the negative headlines with positive effects. he said he tried until the end but they cannot save the bank. shery: a lot happens to the senior leadership there. >> the chairman was reelected narrowly, so he will be the last chairman of credit suisse, axel lehmann. we do expect the ceo and the chairman will be heading out the door once the merger closes later in the year. there are so? sober key executives too -- there are still questions regarding key executives too. paul: we heard from jamie dimon, what did he say? >> she was saying that even though this current crisis seems to be overcome a that

repercussions will be felt for years to come. he had a go at regulators and said they need to improve stress testing, but he warned against politically motivated responses. she did say that -- he did say that the risks were hiding in plain sight, but he said management was also to blame. shery: we have the latest prepared remarks coming from the cleveland fed president loretta mester. she says policymakers should move above 5% this year and whole rights on restricted levels for some time 12

inflation. -- to quell inflation. she says policy needs to move further into restrictive territory this year with the real fed funds rate stain in positive territory for some time. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from newsmakers. listen through the app or bloomberg radio.com. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪

shery: taken a look at the day ahead. in australia, we are due to get final readings at the top of the hour. also fresh from rate hikes yesterday, and address at the national press club in sydney in the next few hours. paul: the impact of the interest

rate increases starting to hit new zealand's property market. a record for house prices in march. let's discuss this further with tracy. the reserve bank of new zealand is signaling that it is not done yet in terms of rate hikes. have property prices found the floor? >> they have fallen for 12 straight months and mortgage interest rates have gone from 2.5% to 6.5% and that is hurting buyers considerably. the bank is likely to raise rates again today. the market will be looking for signals as to the future track. in february, the bank may need to raise rates to 5.5%. it might be good for the house and market over the medium term

i would say. shery: [indiscernible] >> i think that is correct. the bank with a 5.5%. if there is a suggestion there will not go higher, there will be stability with mortgage rates and give buyers a bit more confidence. paul: are there any signs of mortgage stress in the market in new zealand at the moment? >> we reported earlier this week that the level of arrears has risen. there is no indication of mortgage sales. banks have options to help them

out in the near term. nothing serious as yet. paul: that is our breaking news reporter tracy withers. let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. johnson & johnson has agreed to pay close to $9 billion to resolve all cancer lawsuits tied to its powders. the company has already withdrawn its powders from the market. general motors is buying out 5000 jobs. it will save money and it will start this year. it should allow gm to avoid

voluntary dismissals. a group of banks has uploaded the riskiest portion of debt from last year's buyout of citrix systems. the bond sale was priced at a discount and the bonds were initially marketed at $.78. the assets of hillhouse tumbled by a third last year. they are known for attracting some of the biggest u.s. endowment and pension funds. assets felt by $21.3 billion. shery: we are seeding a little bit of a bounce back after u.s. stocks fell. it was the first decline in five sessions.

we had a sellout -- selloff in banks. jamie dimon warning bug u.s. banking crisis will be felt for years. take a look at how u.s. futures are trading. let's take a look at how asian markets are setting up at the moment. we are seeing sydney futures down 2/10 of 1%. we had seen the rba at that 3.5% but it was a tightly called decision. today, we are watching the rbnz likely to hike for an 11th straight time. paul: that decision, and in a

little over three hours time. another 25 basis points expected. we are going to be hearing from the market doctor who was saying inflation, no signs of slowing down. that is that for daybreak australia. we have the market open in just over an hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

yvonne: welcome to daybreak asia. we are coming down to the major market opens. >>