tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg April 5, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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haidi: a very good morning, welcome to daybreak australia. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. shery: i am shery ahn. house speaker kevin mccarthy tells bloomberg china cannot dictate who the u.s. talks to, after his historic meeting with the taiwanese president. haidi: wall street sees a renewed flight to safety with bonds climbing and equities falling with weaker data stoking recession concerns. shery: credit suisse executive bonuses will be cut. u.s. futures under pressure after what was a risk off session, the dow slightly higher but the s&p 500 was down. the profitless tech sector really tumbled today.
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there were fears about an economic slowdown in the u.s. we had weaker than expected jobs numbers, services numbers that is feeling felt -- being felt. treasuries, that rally continues and the two year yield volatile, at one point falling 18 basis points, also at its lowest level this year. lower by 1.5 percentage points or so below the three-month yield which has been a clear sign of recession. of course, all of the fed throu gh oil prices and the u.s. stockpiles not falling as much as expected last week, so we had wti still above $83 a barrel -- $80 a barrel but falling for the first in five sessions. haidi: a pretty muted final session as these markets are going off on the long easter
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break. a drop in volumes going into a holiday thinned week. sidney futures tepid, .1% lower as we are looking at a decline for a second session. we are seeing very little change when we get to the start of the cash trading, the renewed run to safety overnight, not going to add much to the australian session. we are waiting for the semiannual financial stability report. the dollar is holding up ok despite the dollar gauge climbing to a daily hide during the new york session and the flight to safety with the yen. kiwi stocks down by .1%. watching for the japanese and korean markets as they get off-line. tech heavy, chip and -- heavy indices could be affected.
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shery: we are watching a very important political meeting in the u.s. kevin mccarthy address the importance of ties between washington and taipei following his meeting with the taiwan a president. he says the u.s. must continue arms sales to taiwan, while strengthening u.s. -- economic cooperation. bloomberg spoke with the house speaker after that meeting. >> what china needs to understand is they can't dictate who speaker of the mouse can -- speaker of the house can meet with. macron is sitting down with president xi. that's great. i would sit down with president xi. haidi: annmarie hordern spoke with kevin mccarthy and has been traveling with the president. what stood out to you in that conversation? annmarie: he is just off the
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heels of this meeting and it is unprecedented given he is the highest ranking u.s. official to sit down with a taiwanese president on u.s. soil. how did we get here? speaker pelosi last summer went to taipei and obviously, this meant a lot of acrimony between beijing and washington. we saw military drills conducted, and sanctions happening on taiwan. this is more of a muted response, especially for the taiwanese leader who will be facing an election in january. the message from speaker mccarthy was that he wants to make sure that arms sales to taiwan are sped up, and he pointed towards going to ukraine, that is proven that what they need to do in washington is show deterrence to make sure beijing doesn't come to the point where they would want to invade taiwan. shery: what was the take away for president tsai?
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>> this is a historical meeting because this is the first time in over four decades since u.s. and taiwan cut ties, that a taiwan president would visit the house speaker, the third highest government official on u.s. soil . the take away is that during the meetings, president tsai -- a bipartisan group of lawmakers, she thanked them for their unwavering support for taiwan. she said during the brief remarks after mccarthy and tsai's meeting around noon, she said the meeting today with mccarthy was really present. she thanked the hospitality from the speaker and said it is just as warm as the sunshine in california. she said that is why taiwanese
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people feel we are not isolated and we are not alone. the key message is this is a sign to defend a democracy with democratic partners around the world. we will defend its peaceful status quo and unite it with the united nations. shery: neither side mentioned china and public comments, and the biden administration has tried to play down this visit. what will be the implications for the beijing-washington relationship? annmarie: the biden administration leading up to president tsai's visit to america, first to new york and ending in california, this being the most controversial part of her visit, he continues to come out and say just transiting through. we are at the reagan library
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with a bipartisan group of lawmakers and is not just transitioning -- transiting through. kevin mccarthy said china cannot dictate who he can sit down with, friend or foe. he even said he would sit down with xi jinping, has been to beijing before and would go again. you can see the u.s. will not stop having these outreach and meetings with taiwan. on the heels of this trip, representative michael mccaul is leading a trip to taiwan. those be taking place next week in taipei. we have seen the rhetoric from china, whether or not it was a letter sent to the inboxes of lawmakers in california before their meeting, telling them they should not go forward with this meeting. it goes against the one china policy. we saw some action in the south china seas of taiwan. you can expect the acrimony to grow and taiwan to be the latest
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linchpin in this relationship between washington and beijing. haidi: annmarie, we are seeing back her moni and certainly the displeasure -- displeasure. these are coming out, the foreign ministry condemning the meeting, saying the issue is "an impossible redline," urging the u.s. to stop creating tensions. the national people's congress condemning that meeting in a statement released. china will take firm, forceful measures to safeguard sovereignty. how does this play out domestically within taiwan? we have seen the likes of the former president visiting the mainland. cindy: it is actually very interesting timing for all of these visits. they all happen at around the same time. president tsai visiting the
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u.s., guatemala, and belize, diplomatic allies of taiwan and is now wrapping up her visit here. the last stop is los angeles in the u.s. the former president is visiting china and used the excuse that he will show respect to his ancestors because his father and ancestors were from china. also reminded the people of the party and another person who is a presidential candidate, founder of -- technology group who is in the u.s. because he has been trying to get campaigns to dominate the presidential race. several think tanks, and trying to prove he has the connection and ability with the u.s. and trying to use that as an excuse to ask you to nominate him for
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the presidential race. all of these visits at the same time, all pointing to one thing. but a coming presidential election in next january. currently, we only have one confirmed president, the taiwanese vice president. -- confirmed candidate, the taiwanese vice president. he is leading polls by as much as 10 percentage points so he has a good potential for that election. but there are still several months leading up to the presidential election next year so it is still too early to tell what's going to be the agenda, what's going to be the topic? russia issues and international relations. tsai's historical visit with mccarthy will probably give them a good chance to promote the party to say, we are the party
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who can escalate the profile internationally and boost taiwan's security. shery: traveling with president tsai. now markets, we are watching not only the geopolitical tensions but eco-data. wall street has seen a renewed flight to safety with stocks dropping as weaker than expected economic data revive fears a recession could be in store. let's bring in emily griffey oh. we have a little bit of a mixed picture in the equity space but treasuries knew what they were doing. emily: treasuries plummeting as investors are piling into the safe haven. the market is starting to price in bad economic news as bad news for the market. i was asking a source today, i thought bad economic news is good news. he said that's not necessarily
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the case anymore when the treasury market has already priced in a more dovish fed. rates have already fallen so much, so any other news of weaker economic data, it is not reinforcing traders to place debt -- place bets that the fed will be more dovish. it is sparking fear that the market is getting weaker and how equity markets react. technology stocks have outperformed to small caps. that is typically what you see in a flight to safety trade. we are seeing speculative technology stocks really sell off today. the goldman sachs basket of tech dropped and the spread between the nasdaq and the tech basket was at its widest of the year. seeing outperformance of the mega cap stocks, more of a safety trade than the profitless tech. haidi: cash continues to flow
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into money market funds. do we expect that to continue? emily: this is another example of that flight to safety that we are seeing across markets. we've seen investors using money market funds since the fed started hiking rates because they are looking for yield, looking for basically cash like place to park their money while there is uncertainty with the equity market and rate volatility. barclays had a note saying they expect $1.5 trillion to flow into money market funds as the banking turmoil has led more investors to want that safety even after the fed rate hiking cycle. we are currently at about $5.2 trillion, a record high amount of cash in money market funds. you add 1.5 trillion dollars, it will only accelerate this trend. this is just another effect of
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the fed rate hiking cycle. investors are thinking, why would i buy equities if i could allocate some of my portfolio and get 4% to 5% of a guaranteed yield? they are looking for a higher rate and want to lock that in. haidi: emily griffeo. paul with the first word headlines. paul: the geopolitical tension, risks damaging the global economy. local economy could fall by 2% long-term if foreign investment of other capital is only targeted toward aligned blocks. the world is likely to be poor. japan's trade minister says g7 members concurred that natural gas is necessary as a transitional energy source, disagree on how long that period might be.
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he told bloomberg he believes gas will be required for 10 to 15 years. he says nuclear power will also remain in the energy mix for japan. >> while introducing as much renewable energy as possible, japan will accelerate the operation of nuclear power plants under the premise of safety while securing the supply of lng. we will make contributions to the world. japan being the largest lng consuming country, we would like to hold the annual producer consumer dialogue at some point. paul: saudi arabia has raised oil prices for asian customers days after opening plus amounts to prevent a cut. saudi aramco shipped -- the third consecutive month it has raised prices. it is a surprise for traders who expected a reduction of $.43 a barrel.
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the swiss government is said to cancel the outstanding bonuses of credit suisse executives. board members will have all outstanding payments through the end of 2022 scrapped. top managers one and two levels below will have their bonuses reduced by 50% and 25% respectively. this will affect about 1000 employees. >> global news powered by more than 120 analysts, this is bloomberg. haidi: more on japan's plans for a high-tech chip industry and calls for export controls. coming up later this hour. dethroning king dollar. we ask walser wealth management wide they -- why they are trying to dedollarize. ♪
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happening in the financial sector with rebecca walser. good to have you with us. we have seen the pressure on regional banks throughout the week, jamie dimon coming out and saying this banking turmoil will have implications for years to come. how concerned are you about the stability and health of the financial sector in the u.s.? rebecca: we are quite concerned because it is a crisis of confidence really. it is the federal reserve and congress and janet yellen came out and after yellen had previously said no bailout, really backstopped the depositors all the way up beyond our government limit of $250,000. that sends a strong message to keep at bay any additional psychological concerned that this was systemic and it will snowball into a house of cards. so for right now, we did see still $90 billion withdrawn last
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week in the top 25 banks in the united states. we still believe depositors are still skittish but it is not a full-blown crisis. a full-blown crisis honestly would be electronically over in one day by 4:00 in the afternoon. shery: would you advise your clients to buy the dip in the financials in these lenders? rebecca: i would normally. that would be normal circumstances but because we are seeing a dedollarization movement really take hold and we have been warning our clients. we are seeing a movement between the brakes nations, shanghai development, china's belt and road, to align with 80% of the population of the world towards east, towards asia, and away from the west, australia, and japan. that is what we have been
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preparing for. because this is unusual and i believe it is the birth of a new system financially. central bank, digital currencies, what have you, this is not a time to expect a turnaround and buy the dip. haidi: in what ways strategically are you leaning into a recession? rebecca: we are trying to really see, it is a two part thing. recession, depression, we recover and get back to a dollar-based system even though we have a lot of d other countriesedollarizing or do we go to another system? we feel we are going to a new system so we are more commodities based, hard asset based, precious metals, definitely energy and utilities. we are definitely defensive, definitely bearish and really protective of cash in banks because this will be unfortunately, if it does
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happen, it will be unfortunately quite fast and aggressive to the downside so we have to be careful. this is the approach we are taking. haidi: rebecca walser joining us. you can get a round up of the stories in daybreak. you can customize the settings and just get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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they expect smaller clients to help boost investment banking fees. -- tiger global gained more than 7%. it was up 5% in march alone, helping the firm erase record losses from last year. holdings jumped to 22% in the three months to september. shery: take a look at how u.s. futures are trading, because we are seeing downside pressure at the moment especially with the nasdaq 100. futures are the big underperformers. profitless tech really tumbling. and banks also had seen a little bit of a selloff given that western alliance scoop markets by not disclosing balances. they did after and that eased the selloff, but we continue to see the pressure broadly with the kbw bank index down.
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this as jamie dimon really said the banking turmoil would have lasting implications for years. it was a risk off session today and perhaps something that might continue into the asian session, as we saw the japanese yen jumping. with the dollar also jumping, given those haven demands, the japanese trading at about 1.2134. wti also seeing pressure toward the $80 a barrel level, causing the biggest rally. the eco-data did not help. crude stockpiles in the u.s. fell less than expected last week. plenty more to come.
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of strength in the u.s. services sector lost steam in march. what may be a red flag for the economy. kathleen hays is here with the latest. how important is this report? >> i know the federal reserve is watching it because of its impact on growth. the u.s. services sector accounts for more than half of u.s. output and 80% of u.s. jobs. so that is a big driver for the economy. what happened in march is a deceleration. let me tell you the numbers. i want to list them so you can get the drama. any number above 50 means expansion in the ism indexes. services found nearly four points from 55 to 51. new orders, they were strong. 60 26 down. they indicate expansion but the bloom is off the rose. down to 50 95 and employment
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should slow. jobs growing but losing steam as i said. speaking of jobs, we saw the adp private jobs report. it was up. the month before, 260 one. there is no exact correlation but it does suggest the government's number will come in let's look at a chart because it shows ism services versus manufacturing. what does that show you? it shows you that things have been coming down from strong levels by manufacturing contraction territory, 46.3. ism services, a point above 50 but moving lower. this is something that suggests something is shifting after rate hikes and more. bloomberg economics has a model that they used to forecast recession. what their model is showing is a 97% chance that the recession
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will be starting in the u.s. in july. as the federal reserve, the president of the cleveland fed speaking with bloomberg television this morning and sticking to her guns. she said it 24 hours ago and she said it again, rates have to move higher. >> we are going to have to go higher from where we are, a little bit more and then hold for some time in order to make sure inflation is on a sustainable downward path to 2%. >> a little bit higher. now of course they had not seen the report when they spoke to bloomberg television before 9 a.m. wall street time. even so presumably fed officials are going to have to see a slew of evidence showing that inflation is starting to cool down. final demand is easing. that is building the case that things are getting closer to the point where they can stop hiking rates. in holding steady for a while. >> kathleen hays.
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let's get to the first word news with paul allen. paul: australia's indigenous affairs ministers warned the country's global reputation is at risk ahead of a historic national vote on including first nations people in the constitution. the upcoming referendum seeks to give a political voice to aboriginal islander people. 's opposition party says it will campaign against the move. the indigenous affairs ministers as a no vote would reflect terribly on the country. french president macron meets with china's xi jinping on thursday after making it clear that he opposes moves to decouple from the world's second-biggest economy. speaking in beijing, he also says that china can play a major role in ukraine by using close ties with russia to push for peace. emmanuel macron is visiting china with the ec president, underscoring a message of european unity. taiwan says it spotted a chinese aircraft carrier in southeastern waters ahead of the meeting with
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u.s. house speaker kevin mccarthy. the defense ministry says it also detected 14 chinese military aircraft and three navy vessels in areas near the island. it was seen as an early sign of what beijing described as a resolute measure in protest of the meeting. global news, 24 hours a day. on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. haidi: china has warned that the taiwan issue is a redline. hours after the islands president met the house speaker in california, kevin mccarthy told us more about why he hosted them despite warnings from beijing of resolute measures in response. >> if we want to make sure that we foster democracy and peace and make sure that we do not get into any type of conflict, people need to sit down. what china needs to understand is that they cannot dictate who a speaker of the house can meet with. for the same moment that
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emmanuel macron is sitting with president xi jinping, i think that's great. i would sit down with him. i would gladly -- i have been there three times. i think it is important that we meet. one of the things that america has failed upon is we have never spoken with one voice when it comes to china. with gone from administration to administration. i became speaker and created a select committee. 100 46 democrats voted for it. you've watched emma cats and republicans together. that would foster a stronger relationship with china because china would understand where the boundaries are. they will not worry about one party is saying something. we have watched in congress this year, only movement when we spoke about china, 100% of congress voted for the resolution. >> it's the one area of bipartisanship i would say. >> i think we are getting more of them. 83% of every bill passed has
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been bipartisan. >> i want to ask what type of support there would be if there was an invasion. if beijing were to invade, you talked about arms sales that need to get there quicker but with look like militarily? would you send american lives. >> this is a hypothetical question we would never want to get to. what we're doing today is how do we make sure the question never comes to fruition. what you would learn from ukraine because in 2015 when i went to the white house to advocate with president biden to sell javelins, we want to deter them, we want them to not come in. the six assurances we provided that we would continue to fund weapons to taiwan. what we should do is speed up the process. so they can defend themselves so you do not have conflict, you do not have war. you communicate, we build greater technology from sciences to health, i think that fosters a safer world. we advocate at the reagan
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library democracy, freedom, peace. that is what taiwan has. shery: u.s. house speaker kevin mccarthy with bloomberg's and marie. we continue to get reaction from china. cctv reporting that chinese defense ministry is vowing to safeguard national sovereignty. up next, japan's trade minister says his country is ready to spend more money to support local chipmaker rapidus. our interview in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> integration of our businesses is expected to take three to four years, before wind down. we expect the transaction to generate a cost reduction of 8 billion u.s. dollars by 2027. haidi: that you let us -- that was ubs chairman on the integration of credit suisse. the government is about to cut the outstanding bonuses of top executives. let's get the latest now from our finance reporter in sydney. these bonuses were only temporary last month. does it come as any surprise that they are not permanent? >> there was always a danger
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that this would happen, because this is a bank that has over the past 12 years put away about 35 billion francs in bonus pools for its staff while profit over that time was less than 1% at 35 million. there was a huge discrepancy between the performance and the pay. we saw shareholder backlash against that this week as well, so no surprise that the swiss government has said to cancel bonuses for the top three tiers of employees. this affects about 1000 employees and were talking about 50 to 60 million francs. >> what about junior employees, does this apply to them as well? >> junior employees have been spared locally, so earlier this year, they were allowed to be paid their bonuses, cash bonuses, until the end of last year, so credit suisse has made those payments. remember the share price as been hit so hard that employees have
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already seen deferred payments down about 2 billion francs. even though they are getting those cash bonuses, deferred options and stock bonuses are basically decimated. haidi: what were the key points we got from the agn? >> so the agn was stressing the difficulties of this integration. so as you just heard, they made it very clear that it is going to take three to four years and that is not even including the wind down of the investment bank. they are saying that this is risky business they are getting into right now, but eventually the merger will be a benefit to the bank. it will take a while. in the meantime while they are working things out, there will be great uncertainty. so not great, but that was a nice sendoff for ralph hammers, the outgoing ceo. he got a nice little handout for
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his easter weekend. haidi: did we hear from him? >> yes, we did. he said he had to step away because this is a difficult integration. he was happy to make way for sergio, the incoming ceo who will be in charge of helming this difficult integration. haidi: bloomberg's finance reporter. let's get you a quick check with our latest business flash headlines. amazon is partnering with india's government to stream movies and tv shows from state run studios. it's introducing a special feature to promote books and journals from the broadcasting ministries publication arm. india is a key growth market for amazon and their prime video streaming service. western alliance says their deposits shrunk less than estimations. money was falling back in the bank. deposits were down 11% in the first quarter but balances have increased, cutting the decline to 9%.
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the disclosure raise concerns about a statement that updated the financial statement without including the deposit figure. macau casinos have been forced to close thousands of hotel rooms and cut back on guest services due to a labor shortage. the hiring process for foreign workers is a hurdle for its reopening post-covid. five-star hotels in the gambling hub have less than half rooms available while another operator has 1/5 of its rooms out of commission. shery: japan's trade minister says the government will increase financial support for trick -- chipmaker rapidus. they told bloomberg they have high hopes for the production of high-tech chips in japan. >> the government is ready to beef up financial support to rapidus. the company needs to spend trillions of yen to develop the cutting edge semiconductor chips. >> regarding the tightening of
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expert controls for semi conductors, you have repeatedly said you do not have a specific country in mind. but china made a remark that seemed to restrain it japan. is there anything you would like to say? >> the move is not a band, but strict export controls prevent military operation and they apply to all regions and are not meant to target any one country. we will be looking at any possible danger across the board. >> what do you think about the excessive reaction by china? >> is a country moves to retaliate, the government will make appropriate responses according to the international rules. shery: japan's economic trade and minister as were getting lines that china will be asking the wto to investigate the
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u.s.-japan-netherlands chip curb that we have seen as we try to rein in the export of key technology to china. you can watch us live and see past interviews on our interactive tv function, tv . there you can dive into securities or bloomberg functions that we talk about. become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is for terminals of scrubbers only. check it out on tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
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post. i think were going to have to go over little higher from were we all little bit more of the holder for some time. i wanted to make sure inflation is stable 2%. that doesn't mean that regular raise rates until inflation get back to 2%. we are going to be calibrating -- calibrating in order to see it slow down. it will take time to get inflation down. but i think we're going to make progress this year and continue to make progress next year and hit 2% in 2025. >> what is your trajectory for inflation, where can we end the year and how fast we get there? >> three and three quarters percent by the end of this year, continued progress next year, 2% in 2025. that is good progress. you got turned member, we've
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been at high inflation well over 2% for quite some time and that is why it is imperative that we continue to make progress. and we continue on this path. we're going to be judicious, we are not going to throw the baby out with the bathwater owsley's sleigh. were going to make sure we make good judgments. but it is crucial that we get inflation back down to 2%. >> you are talking about not throwing the baby out with the bathwater but the fed tightens until something breaks. what would you say the balance of risks is between something breaking on the growth side and the unemployment side and inflation? >> we are hoping that we do not tighten until something breaks. i don't think that is the strategy i would like to follow. we've got to be judicious and calibrate policy in the correct way. we have made a lot of progress in terms of where we started when we started raising rates. we were at zero and we have come a long way.
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we are making progress on getting where we need to get to end my view is that we are going to have to go it little bit further but we are certainly well on the way where we need to get to. then you hold for a while. and yes, we can recalibrate policy if the economy evolves differently than we are anticipating and that is the nature of monetary policy making. he want to take the information in and set a policy path that is consistent with getting back to maximum employment and price stability. then if the economy evolves differently than you anticipate, you might have to adjust policy. you need to be open to that especially in a situation where there is high uncertainty. high uncertainty in the economy before we had tensions in the banking system. the tension in the banking system and the stresses in those banks have added more uncertainty. so you have got to be willing to take in more pieces, outlook at it and reassess if need be in
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terms of where policy needs to get to. haidi: cleveland fed president loretta speaking to bloomberg's mike mckee. let's take a look at the day ahead for australia and new zealand. anz bank is set to release its report on commodity prices. we will get that data in a couple of hours. austria's international trade balance figures for february. watch out for the rba's semi annual financial stability review. plenty of interest after the decision to pause rate hikes earlier this week. here in australia there is a warning that the outcome could affect a global reputation. the referendum will ask whether they recognize the first peoples of australia by establishing a tourist trade island. let's get more on the proposal any opposition we've got
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reporter ben wescott. give us details about the referendum, when we are expecting the vote to be? >> the vote is expected to be held in the last quarter of this year between october and december. it's a vote about the indigenous voice in the constitution. changing the constitution is complicated in tralia. it needs a national vote with a lot of caveats. what the indigenous voice department would be would be an advisory body, no veto power. a body made up of elected indigenous leaders from across the country who would come and advise the government on policy. that affects indigenous people. so what we saw them say is that the opposition leader, the leader of the liberal party has come out to oppose this. that's a big deal because in the past, referendums have struggled if they have not had bipartisan
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support from the major parties. shery: what is the opposition saying, what is the reason behind making the significant decision to campaign for a no vote? >> so what they have basically said is that they think a voice to parliament should be legislated, not put in the constitution. so they are concerned that it is in the constitution and will not be able to change later on down the line. if it is legislated by the parliament it can be changed depending on the time. constitutional recognition for indigenous people, that is putting indigenous people in the constitution were currently they are not. but basically indigenous leaders have already rejected it several times symbolic recognition in the constitution. he wanted something more real and tangible and that is where this proposal came from. haidi: we have heard from
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indigenous leaders responding to this. >> we have absolutely. this morning a major indigenous leader described the liberal party's opposition as a judas move. a lot of emotional language coming in. the minister for indigenous affairs who spoke to us yesterday said she was really concerned about what we would do to australians and the national representation if there was a no vote of the referendum this year. she said that if there was -- if australia voted against this it would damage our reputation not just globally but specifically because indigenous people make up a huge portion of the population in australia. haidi: reporter ben wescott there. with the latest on that vote.
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let's get you a look at how markets are trading as we get into for australia and new zealand the last trading day before we head into the easter long weekend. this is a picture across bond markets. kiwi bonds are seeing a reaction after our bz -- rb and z rate hike. we saw the jump in the kiwi as australian bonds and we are watching austrian bonds as we saw the u.s. 10 year yield hitting 2023 lowe's as the soft data continues to accumulate. and certainly in asia, we are looking to set up the thursday session to echo the u.s. did on these growing recession concerns. government bonds globally rallying against a backdrop of what we have seen as weaker than expected data. this is bloomberg. ♪
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